AD #3688 - UAW Going to Get "Creative" w Transplants and Startups; EU Backing Off Stricter Emissions; U.S. Wants Bigger Chinese Tariffs

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UAW president Sean Fain says the union is going to target all the non union automakers in the US and recruit their workers to join them. After nearly

forty years of failing to organize any of the transplants, the union clearly needs a different strategy, and Fegne told Reuters, quote, We're going to find creative ways to get to workers. Foreign automakers and evy startups like Tesla and

Rivian play a significant role in the US auto industry. Collectively, they have

twenty five large manufacturing facilities that make things like engines, transmissions, stampings and moldings for final assembly, and there are more under construction. All told,

the transplants and startups employ about one hundred and twenty eight thousand hourly workers, compared to about one one hundred and forty six thousand autoworkers who are UAW members, So if the union can figure out how to organize them, it could practically double its membership of auto workers. It's really hard to make money selling

evs, even companies that are doing better than others at selling electrics are struggling.

Pollstar sold about forty two thousand vehicles through the first nine months of the year, but it says it doesn't expect to break even on evs until twenty twenty five. The good news for Polestar is it only sells one model right

now, so with several more models in the pipeline, it has a chance of meeting its targets. The Polestar three and four are expected to enter production

this year and next, and while Polestar says it needs an estimated one point three billion dollars until it hits that break even point in twenty twenty five, it's getting a cash in fusion of four hundred and fifty million dollars from parent companies Volvo and Jil to help build those new models. By our rough calculation,

Tesla didn't start turning a profit until it was making about eighty thousand vehicles a quarter. Since pole Star will be selling more expensive vehicles, it won't

have to make that many to turn a profit, and it hopes to sell one hundred and fifty five thousand to one hundred and sixty five thousand evs a year by twenty twenty five, about a month ago, reports came out that Ford and Hundai are getting giga casting machines from the same company that supplies them to Tesla. Those reports also said another unnamed premium automaker in Europe was getting

some presses and now we know who it is. Volvo is buying two nine

thousand ton presses from Idra to use at a new billion dollar factory in Slovakia.

The large castings these machines make combined several, sometimes hundreds of parts together, which helps reduce man manufacturing costs. Balvos plant in Slovakia is expected to

start making its next gen EVS around twenty twenty six and will eventually have the capacity for two hundred and fifty thousand vehicles a year. The European Union is

backing off a proposal for stricter vehicle emissions. Lawmakers are keeping rules in place

to limit nitrous oxide, particulate matter, and carbon monoxide for cars, but they voted to weaken NOx limits for trucks and delay the rules for cars for three years. The proposal originally wanted the new regulations to go into effect in

twenty twenty five. Automakers and several countries opposed the original rules because they said

it would be too costly, and they argued that since the EU will ban the sale of new ice vehicles starting in twenty thirty five, that automakers should focus on investing in electric vehicles instead of trying to make ice vehicles more efficient.

There's growing concern over low cost Chinese evs flooding foreign markets. Over in

Europe, an investigation was launched a potentially slap terrace on Chinese made evs sold in the region, which would help protect European automakers. And now in the

US, a group of bipartisan representatives sent a letter to the Biden administration urging it to increase the tariff on Chinese made vehicles, which is currently at twenty five percent. They also want to prevent Chinese automakers from exporting vehicles to the

US from Mexico, and like Europe, this is an effort to protect the US auto industry and while lawmakers want to rece strict the number of Chinese vehicles sold in the country. Reuter's reports that Chinese automaker Geele's premium brand Zeker is

moving forward with an IPO in the US. The company is expected to reveal

details about its plans sometime this week, and IT shares could start being traded within weeks of the announcement. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly underwriting the

IPO, and It's not stopping at the US. Zeker also announced plans to

expand into Europe as well. A number of automakers, including Tesla, Volkswagen,

Stalantis, and Renault, are all developing low cost evs that are expected to be introduced in the next few years, and a big reason they'll be able to do that is because battery prices are expected to fall significantly. According

to Goldman Sacks, battery prices are expected to drop to ninety nine dollars per kilowatt hour by twenty twenty five, which is forty per lower than prices in twenty twenty two, and Goldman estimates that battery prices will fall an average of eleven percent per year from twenty twenty three until twenty thirty. A big reason

for the drop is because battery raw material prices have tumbled this year. As

we reported earlier in the week, lithium is down seventy percent, nickel has fallen forty percent, and cobalt is down two and they're expected to remain low because supplies are higher than demand. So that's why automakers are confident they can

develop low cost evs. Right now, Chrysler's sad little lineup of only two

vehicles is going to grow to three, and that vehicle is going to be electric. Brand CEO Christine Fuel said its next model will be a purely electric

crossover in twenty twenty five, and it will be inspired by the Airflow concept.

That's a bit surprising because had to design. Ralph Shield said earlier this

year. The vehicle wouldn't have anything to do with what we've seen from the

Airflow so far, so we'll be interested to see what this model looks like.

But it is going to have to change at least a little bit because the concept was based on the current PACIFICA platform, while the actual production vehicle is based on the Stella Large platform. And speaking of the Pacifica, Fuel

also said the hybrid version of the minivan will be sticking around until the end of the decade. One of the Mustang's more iconic packages is making a comeback

for the new generation Pony. Car Ford revealed the new GT California Special,

which is highlighted by bright blue accents both inside and out. My favorite touch

is the repeating California Special script on the black stripe that runs along the lower part of the body. From a distance, it just looks like a sub

pattern. The original Mustang GT California Special was made in nineteen sixty eight.

It didn't make a comeback until two thousand and seven, but it's been offered on every generation Mustang since then. And a quick reminder that Autoline after Hours

goes live this afternoon at three pm Eastern time. John and Gary are going

to try and find out if we're reaching the end of affordable cars. But

that's a wrap for today. Thanks for joining us. Auto Line Daily is

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