AD #3703 - Forecast: Cybertruck Will Only Sell 36,000/Year; Ford Lightning Sales Surprisingly Strong; D3 Offset UAW Costs With Spending Cuts

This is Outline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industream.

We're learning more about that cyber attack on the supplier Yang Fung last month.

It makes seats in all kinds of interior components, and it was hit by a cyber attack that not only shut down part of its operations, but also shut down some operations at Stalantis. Now, a ransomware gang called chi

Lean has claimed responsibility for that attack and says it has a lot of sensitive information that it will dump out in public in the coming days. Cyber experts

expect chi Lean to demand a six or seven figure payout to not release that information, so Yang Fung will probably be forced to figure out how valuable that information is. And you may recognize the name chi Lean or Quillen is what

I used to say, but I actually think it's closer to Chilean. It's

the same name that catl uses for its new EV battery, and it's the name of a unicorn like creature in Chinese mythology. We've got the latest EV

sales numbers from China and they seem to suggest that the growth of the EV segment is slowing there too. Most EV makers except Tesla posted strong year over

year increases in November byd Neo, Liatto, Zeker, and Japung had double digit percentage increases, while Tesla's sales fell nearly eighteen percent. However, on

a month to month basis from October to November, almost all EV makers showed little or no growth, while Tesla posted a fourteen percent increase. China's economy

seems to be a bit wobbly at the moment, and that may explain the slowdown in EV growth, but we also saw EV growth slow down in the US and European markets this summer. However, last month EV sales in Europe

shot up again, so maybe this is just a normal seasonal variation in car sales. But we'll really want to keep an eye on the EV sales in

China in US to see if they get back to their prior growth rate.

GM and Ford say they'll be able to offset the cost of their new labor contracts with the UAW even though they'll add roughly nine billion dollars in costs over the next four years, but those offsets are gonna be painful. Most of

the savings will come from reducing capital spending, slashing marketing costs, reducing the number of model variations they sell, and reducing headcount. While both companies will

remain solidly profitable, they're gonna hit the lower end of the guidance for profits and cash flow they gave to Wall Street. Whilst Delantis hasn't reported the cost

of its tract, it's very likely going to resort to the same tactics to offset the higher labor costs. Used evs are not holding their value very well

right now. Market research firm BlackBook estimates that the average three year old used

vehicle held about sixty six percent of its original value in October, but a three year old used EV only held about forty nine percent of its value.

The biggest factor is a drop in new EV pricing, which has a trickle down effect on the used EV market. Not only are automakers figuring out ways

to build electric vehicles cheaper, but with more competition, you've seen significant price discounts. Experts predict the wild fluctuation in the EV market could end up driving

more new car buyers into leasing because they'll be less impacted by the steep depreciation of the vehicle. Toyota keeps talking about hybrids, but it's quietly ramping up

its EV efforts as well. In Europe. It plans to increase its EV

lineup to six models by twenty twenty six, and it's aiming to sell two hundred and fifty thousand bvs a year by the same time. Toyota revealed concepts

of two of those models. The production version of the urban suv concept goes

on sale next year and will offer two battery choices, but Toyota didn't reveal their sizes. The other concept is called the Sport Crossover, which is a

fastback suv that will get a production model in twenty twenty five. Some of

those new evs could have a new battery chemistry, as Toyota pre announced it's developing a method to produce solid state batteries in higher numbers and is aiming to commercialize them in twenty twenty seven or twenty twenty eight, with a production capacity of quote several tens of thousands of vehicles. Chinese evmaker BYD is dead serious

about protecting its brand image. It's offering tipsters rewards of seven thousand to seven

hundred thousand dollars if they report about anyone trying to smear the company's reputation.

BYD says the evidence it wants collected should include chat records, emails, contracts, fun transfers and other information, and if BYD verifies the smear campaign is true, it will then reward the tipster. And this is not a new

issue for BYD. It actually started the reward campaign in twenty twenty one.

In the US, there are lots of questions about the future of autono vehicles, but that's not the case in China. Japung is showing off its autonomous

technology with a video it posted on social media showcasing its X nine electric minivan.

It was able to drive into an underground parking garage, find an open spot, and park itself. The van was then summoned with an app and

drove itself out of the garage into the owner. Chapung says the function is

only for testing purposes and isn't available to the public yet. But unlike some

other autonomous parking systems, it doesn't look like Chapung requires any sensors installed into the parking structure itself. It looks like it's all in the van. Could

one of Tesla's competitors block it from using the range extender battery pack that it revealed for the cyber truck. In twenty nineteen, Rivian filed a patent for

its own removable battery pack that fits into the bed of its R one t pickup. The setup also includes an integrated cooling system for the battery and now

some are wondering if tesla system is close enough to Rivians that it could be considered copyright infringement, or if Tesla is already made some sort of deal with Rivian. I doubt either one is the case, but it'd be pretty wild

if they were. The official launch of a cyber truck last week kicked off

a media frenzy, but how many of them will Tesla actually be able to sell in the US market? On the most recent auto line after hours,

Warren Brown from RFQ Insights, who does sales forecasting, said his projections show that only thirty six thousand cyber trucks will be sold every year. That does

not include sales outside of the US, but pickup trucks only sell well in a handful of global markets. However, that sales number could easily be a

bit pessimistic. In a Facebook post, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the company

sold forty four hundred f one fifty lightnings in November. If Ford could hold

that sales rate, it would sell over fifty two thousand electric pickups in a year. And by the way, Warren Brown does believe that electric pickup sales

will grow a lot. He's forecasting sales of over three hundred and twenty thousand

units a year by twenty twenty seven. And if you'd like to watch more

of that show with Warren Brown and industry expert Lindsay Brook, we'll provide a link in the transcript and description box that brings us to the end of this show. Thanks for tuning in. Auto Line Daily is brought to you by

Bridgestone Solutions for your Journey and by Intrepid Control Systems over the Air Engineering Boost your game at SEES January ninth through twelve, twenty twenty four. Up,

it's looking forward to seeing you at our booth three six sixty six Las Vegas Convention Center in the West Hall. We'll be demonstrating the latest and greatest in

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one s and multi gigibit cus CS twenty twenty four, Las Vegas Convention Center in West Hall, Booth three six sixty six, or visit intrepidcs dot com slash sales

AD #3703 - Forecast: Cybertruck Will Only Sell 36,000/Year; Ford Lightning Sales Surprisingly Strong; D3 Offset UAW Costs With Spending Cuts

Ford Lightnings

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