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AD #3932 - EV Sales Forecasts Lowered as Trump Wins; Lucid’s Rawlinson Makes More Money Than GM’s Barra; China SSB To Drop Anode, Separator

Autoline Daily Nov 08, 2024 11 min

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About this episode

The discussion covers the impact of Donald Trump's reelection on EV sales forecasts, highlighting potential cuts to subsidies and relaxed fuel economy rules that could lower EV market share in the US. The episode also reviews recent earnings from JLR, Lucid, and Rivian, noting Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson's high compensation. Key industry moves include Stellantis partnering with Infineon on electrical architectures, Audi launching a China-specific EV brand, and Chinese firms advancing solid-state battery technology. Additionally, China's strong car sales driven by scrappage incentives and leadership changes at BorgWarner are covered.

Topics: ev sales forecasts trump administration impact used ev market automaker earnings ceo compensation stellantis-infinion partnership audi china ev brand solid state batteries china car sales incentives borgwarner leadership change

- EV Sales Forecasts Lowered as Trump Wins - Record EVs Coming Off Lease - JLR Reports Higher Sales and Profits - Rivian Pares Losses, Signs 4695 Battery Deal with LG - Lucid’s Losses Deepen - Lucid’s Rawlinson Makes More Money Than GM’s Barra - Stellantis Partners with Infineon For Chips - Audi Drops 4 Rings for New Brand in China - China Solid State Battery to Drop Anode, Separator - China Car Sales Up Strong in October - Borgwarner Names Fadool To CEO

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Speaker 1: This is Autoligned Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry. As we talked about yesterday, Donald

Trump's reelection could have a big impact on the auto industry, especially electric cars. Trump has promised to end EV subsidies

and is also likely to roll back fuel economy and emission requirements, so forecasters are now lowering their outlook for sales of evs.

Speaker 2: Global Data is.

Speaker 1: Now projecting that EV market share in the US will reach twenty eight percent twenty thirty, down from its previous forecast to thirty three percent, and that could hurt automaker's bottom lines.

Speaker 2: The auto industry has already committed one.

Speaker 1: Hundred and twenty nine billion bucks to evs through twenty twenty seven in North America. Alex Partner says that investment

could now be at risk a fuel economy rules are softened and EV subsidies are eliminated. Automakers would likely pivot

to produce more PEVs and e revs in their plants instead of pure electrics, but they would still take a financial hit. However, we still don't know exactly what Trump

will do, and to get some idea, check out yesterday's Autoline.

After hours with Sandy Munroe, he gave us his thoughts on what might happen with Trump in the White House and Elon Musk as an advisor.

Speaker 2: Speaking of evs, there could be a lot of great deals for used.

Speaker 1: Ones in the next couple of years because of a surge of evs coming off of lease. JD Power is

forecasting that returning EV lease volumes will increase two hundred and thirty percent in twenty twenty six, and that's because EV lease volumes shot up three hundred and fifty five percent in twenty twenty three and they're up another eighty eight percent in the first nine months of this year.

Speaker 2: That growth is thanks to the IRA.

Speaker 1: Loophole that allows all evs to qualify for the full seventy five hundred dollars tax credit as long as their leased.

Last year, forty six percent of EV sales at franchise dealers were leased, and this year it's at thirty percent.

And while used EV volumes are expected to surge, it's the opposite for gas powered vehicles.

Speaker 2: JD Power expects there.

Speaker 1: To be a shortage of used ice vehicles next year and in twenty twenty six because IC leases are below pre pandemic levels. Last year, two point four million ice

vehicles were leased, but before COVID the average was three million a year. JLR, Lucid, and Rivian posted the third

quarter earnings, and for the most part, the numbers aren't very good. JLR sold one hundred and nine thousand vehicles,

up twenty nine percent, and yet its revenue fell more than five percent to eight point four billion dollars. Its

pre tax profit fell ten percent to five hundre undred and fifteen million, but the company reported that its net profit hit one point four billion, up twenty five percent for the first half of its fiscal year. Rivian sold

just over ten thousand vehicles in the third quarter, down more than thirty five percent from a year ago. That

dropped its revenue by more than thirty four percent to eight hundred and seventy four million dollars, and though it posted an operating loss and a net loss of one point one billion, that was about three hundred million dollars better than last year. Rivian ended the quarter with six

point seven billion dollars in cash on hand, including a billion dollars from Volkswagon, which is buying its electronic architecture.

It also announced a deal to get forty six ninety five cylindrical battery cells from LG Energy Solutions that will be made at a plant in Arizona and will go into Rivian's R two models. And finally, Lucid saw its

sales jump over ninety percent in the quarter, delivering two thousand and seven hundred and eighty one cars to its customers.

Its revenue came in at two hundred million dollars, up forty five percent, but it posted an operating loss of seven hundred and seventy million dollars, which was seventeen million dollars worse than last year, and its net loss of nine hundred and forty nine million was more than three hundred million dollars worse than last year. And despite all

that red ink at Lucid, did you know that the company's CEO, Peter Rolinson is paid more than GM CEO Mary Barra. Automotive News reports that last year, Rolinson made

thirty point one million dollars in total compensation, while Barra made twenty six million. In fact, Rolinson was the highest

compensated CEO of any automaker outside of Elon Musk. But

the highest paid exec in the auto industry is Craig Arnold, the CEO of the supplier Eton. He made over fifty

eight million bucks last year, more than twice as much as he made the year before.

Speaker 2: Knowing that a little rain won't slow down your day, that's what really matters.

Speaker 3: Breachtone torons of wyattract tires confident control in wet conditions.

Speaker 1: Stialantis announced that it's going to work with Infinion on parts of the electrical architecture for its future eves. Specifically,

it wants to replace the traditional fuses used in cars with Infinion smart power switches because they reduce wiring and will allow Stilantis to implement what it calls intelligent power network management. The automaker is also developing standardized power modules

which will be supported by silicon carbide semiconductor chips from Infinion, while its microcontrollers will be used in Stillantis' zonal architecture.

And lastly, they'll work together on the power system for software to find vehicles. As we saw by how badly

automakers were impacted during the chip shortage, they rely heavily on the producers of semiconductors, which is part of the reason Stillant has formed this partnership, and the earlier you can bring them in on the product development process, the better.

Here's what an Audi looks like without the four rings.

The German automaker and its joint venture partner SEIC are launching a new EV branded China called Audi spelled in all caps but without the rings. They're planning to launch

at least three models on a China specific architecture called Advanced Digitized Platform, and this concept, called the Audie, is a preview of the production versions that are supposed to start launching in the middle of next year.

Speaker 2: The evs will feature an.

Speaker 1: Eight hundred volt electric architecture, large display screens, new interior tech, and automated driving. Who knows exactly how the vehicles will

be set up, but the Audie concept comes with a one hundred kilo hour battery pack that returns an estimated seven hundred kilometers or about four hundred and thirty five miles of range, as well as two electric motors that produce over seven hundred and sixty horse power and provide a zero to one hundred kilometer in our time of three point six seconds.

Speaker 2: Let us know what you think in the.

Speaker 1: Comments Batteries startup Talent New Energy and Chinese automaker chan Gan are collaborating to bring solid state batteries to the market.

They plan to start validation in twenty twenty six of vehicles with semi solid state batteries, which removes the separator and some of the liquid electrolyte in the cell. Then

they want to move to mass production of full solid state batteries which have no liquid electrolight in twenty twenty seven, and finally they hope to come up with a way to remove the anode complete. Lately, which is all about

making it easier and cheaper to make batteries, while another major advantage of solid state batteries is high energy density.

There's several automakers in China claiming the launch evs with solid state batteries soon, but who knows how many and when will see them because the biggest hurdle has been trying to make solid state batteries affordably and in large volumes.

Thanks to a cash for clunkers like program, car sales were strong in China last month. According to the China

Passenger Car Association, automakers sold nearly two point four million passenger vehicles in October, up eleven percent from a year ago, and new energy vehicles, which includes BEVs, PHBs and e revs, accounted for fifty three percent of total sales. China provides

buyers about two eight hundred dollars for scrapping their old vehicle and purchasing an EV, and in addition to that, most provinces provide their own incentives for scrapping vehicles. Through October,

automakers have sold seventeen point eight million passenger vehicles in China, which is three point two percent higher than last year.

Speaker 2: The supplier, borg Warner, is getting a new leader.

Speaker 1: President and CEO Frederick Lesald is retiring and he'll be replaced by Joseph Fiduel, who's currently borg Warner's VP and chief Chief operating Officer. Fiduel will take over the top

spot in February of twenty twenty five, and Lesald will remain an advisor to help with the transition until August of that year. But that brings us to the end

of today's show. Please Liken subscribe if you're not already,

and I hope that you have a great weekend.

Speaker 2: Also as a thank you for sticking around this long.

Speaker 1: Here's a teaser for a video we'll be posting this weekend, so stay.

Speaker 2: Tuned for that.

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