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AD #3943 - U.S. Has 1M Overcapacity with EVs; Huawei Maextro Targets Rolls, Maybach; BMWs Roll Off Line Autonomously

Autoline Daily Nov 25, 2024 11 min

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About this episode

The discussion covers the looming overcapacity in U.S. electric vehicle production and potential impacts of policy changes on automakers. BMW's autonomous vehicle movement on factory floors and Mercedes' cutting-edge tech innovations like neuromorphic computing and solar paint highlight industry advancements. Chinese automakers are challenging luxury brands with new electric models, including Huawei's Mayextro S targeting high-end markets. Battery replacement concerns for used EVs are addressed with data showing low replacement rates and falling costs. Additionally, GM's potential entry into Formula One and Bosch's workforce cuts reflect broader industry shifts.

Topics: ev overcapacity in the us automotive policy impact bmw autonomous factory vehicles mercedes future technologies chinese luxury ev competition ev battery health and replacement gm formula one entry bosch workforce reductions electric vehicle production automotive industry trends

- U.S. Has 1M Overcapacity with EVs - Bosch Slashing Jobs and Work Hours - GM Headed to F1 in 2026 - BMWs Roll Off Line Autonomously - Mercedes Develops Neuromorphic Computing - EV Battery Replacement to Be Cheaper Than ICE - Huawei Maextro Targets Rolls, Maybach - Chery CKD At Former Nissan Spain Plant

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Speaker 1: This is aut Aligne Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive in the stream. If the Trump

administration yanks consumer subsidies to buy electric cars and does not loosen CO two standards, then automakers in the US are on a pathway to bankruptcy, says Brown Consulting. Ev

sales are already lower than automakers expected, and if incentives to buy them go away, sales will not just slow down, they'll go down. And if automakers miss their CO two targets,

they face massive fines. Another problem, automakers face a growing

level of overcapacity with PEVs. Brown Consulting says the US

has the capacity to make two point three million evs, but will only sell one point four million this year, leaving an overcapacity of nine hundred thousand vehicles. Next year,

as more plans come online, the US will have the capacity to make three million BEVs, but sales are only projected to reach one point eight million, leaving an overcapacity of one point two million. The buzz in Washington is

that the Trump administration will likely freeze EPA emission standards where they are, which would give automakers some amount of breathing room when it comes to selling evs. German supplier

Bosh isn't done slashing costs. Last week, the company announced

it will get rid of fifty five hundred employees by b end of twenty twenty seven, mostly in Germany, and in addition to that, the suppliers also planning to cut hours in wages for ten thousand workers in Germany, employees will have their hours reduced to thirty five hours a week from thirty eight to forty hours, which will cut their pay by twelve and a half percent. The union

IG Mattal says most of the layoffs are related to automated driving and steering products and it has promised to fight Bosch's cost cutting plans. It looks like General Motors

will be getting into Formula one in twenty twenty six.

After all, GM wanted to pair up with Andretti Global to enter F one in twenty twenty six, but most of the F one teams did not want another team added to the grid, and a key reason seems to be they don't like Michael Andretti, who ran Andretti Global.

But in something of a boardroom coup last month, Michael Andretti was demoted to being just an advisor to the team, and lo and behold, Suddenly it looks like GM is getting the green light to enter the series, probably as a factory team that will be branded as Cadillac.

Speaker 2: There's nothing wrong with heavy metal, hy light enough, but with world class composit material taging automotive take anologies makes vehicles lighter, safer, and more eco friendly.

Speaker 1: Newly built BMWs in Germany are rolling themselves off the production line. It's been testing what it calls automated driving

in plant since twenty twenty two, which uses light our sensors installed along a route, as well as externally generated maps and a route planner to guide vehicles like the five and seven series in many countrymen on the more than one kilometer path. Since this tech doesn't require the

vehicle to have a completely autonomous driving system, up to ninety percent of the models at a plant can drive themselves off the line. But it's probably also part of

the reason that driving looks a little herky jerky right now. However,

BMW plans to incorporate in vehicle sensors into the system, so in the future vehicles could drive themselves through testing zones.

And into outdoor shipping rather than just to the finishing area where they go. Now the system is no longer

in the testing phase and entered into series production at two plants in Germany, with more sites to follow over the next couple of years. And speaking of tech, Mercedes

shared some interesting developments it's working on for the future.

One is called neuromorphic computing, which mimics how the human brain works to improve AI neural networks. When applied to

something like a vehicle's vision system, it would be able to recognize things around it faster and more clearly. Mercedes

claims neuromorphic computing could reduce the energy required for data processing and autonomous driving by ninety percent compared to current systems.

Or how about paint that generates electricity. It's researching solar

modules that are thinner than a human hair and can be applied to the surface of a vehicle. In ideal conditions,

it says a complex, depletely covered mid size SUV could produce enough energy to drive twelve thousand kilometers or nearly seventy five hundred miles a year. Another way to eke

even more mileage out of an EV could be the introduction of an in drive braking system. Sense electric vehicles

mostly slowed down through regenerative braking, Mercedes figures you don't need such a big system, so it's looking at incorporating the brakes right into the front and or rear drive unit.

It expects the system to be virtually maintenance free, plus no more brake dust, and there's even the possibility to lighten the wheels and tires or to have a completely solid wheel since you don't have to cool the brakes.

And lastly, Mercedes wants to replace current electrical inverter systems with micro converters that are placed directly onto battery cells so it can regulate the output of the pack better.

Speaker 3: It says.

Speaker 1: Early tests have showed that it can provide a constant eight hundred volts regardless of the state of charge or the health of the cells, so it can get better charging range and even use different cell chemistries in the same pack. Some of the biggest concerns consumers have about

buying a used EV is the health of the battery and the cost of replacing it, but a new study from Recurrent found that those fears could be overblown. Excluding recalls,

battery replacements are rare. Only one percent of evs from

twenty sixteen or newer have had batteries replaced, plus batteries are usually covered under warranty. Recurrent also found that even

if a battery needs to be replaced, the cost will drop dramatically by the end of the decade because prices continue to fall. According to research firm RMI, battery cell

prices could fall as low as thirty five dollars a kilowad hour by twenty thirty, which translates to a pack price of around fifty dollars at kilowad hour, and that means by the end of the decade, it would cost about three thousand, three hundred and seventy five bucks to replace a seventy five kilowad hour battery pack, or about the same as it costs to replace an engine. Today,

Chinese automakers captured all kinds of attention with low cost evs like the forty five hundred dollars Wouling Mini EV and the ninety eight hundred byd Segull, but they're also competing at the top end of the market. And take

a look at Huawei's may Extro S eight hundred that it developed with jac It makes its official debut tomorrow and we'll get more details then, but the all electric luxury sedan is targeted directly at Rolls, Royce, Bentley, and my Boch. Collectively, those European luxury brands sell about fifteen

thousand cars a year in China, but Huawei and Jac plan to make thirty five thousand s eight hundreds a year and reportedly have an suv version coming two and no doubt they'll start exporting them too, which is going to give the euro lux brands a miserable time. Back

in April, Chinese automaker Cherry formed a partnership with Spain's Evmotors to build vehicles at an old Nissan factory in Spain, and now the companies are celebrating the start of production.

Right now, it's shipping in partially disassembled vehicles, which are then reassembled. In the future will transition to completely knock

down kits, which will require additional welding, painting, and assembly.

Three models are initially being built b EV and IC versions of the Amoto five and two Pheaves that are rebadged versions of Cherry's t Go seven and t Go eight models. Those Pheves will be sold under ev Motors,

Agro Brand, Cherry and Evmotors are aiming to produce fifty thousand vehicles a year by twenty twenty seven and one hundred and fifty thousand a year by twenty twenty nine.

That brings us to the end of today's show. Thanks

for making autoline a part of your day.

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