AD #3975 - Trump Tariffs and EV Policy Could Damage U.S. Auto Industry; EU OEMs Paying Chinese For ZEV Credits; Tesla Brand Value Shrinks By

Speaker 1: This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry. Auto industry experts are worried about

the kind of disruption President Trump's tariffs and EV policies could cause. Up until now, the auto industry was on

track to build seventeen million vehicles in North America by twenty twenty seven. That included nearly three million evs. According

to analyst Warren Brown at RFQ Insights, all the investment decisions have already been made and the supply chains have already been built. Moreover, employment in the US auto industry

is now at its highest point since twenty eighteen, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, but now all of that is under threat. Tariffs will raise the prices

of all vehicles by thousands of dollars, and the elimination of EV incentives will cause demand to go down. All

that will lead to lower capacity utilization, which will in turn raised manufacturing costs. RFQ Insights says the lost employment

from lower BEV production will be felt the hardest in Michigan, Kansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. And make no mistake about it, the domestic

auto makers will use the tariffs to raise their own prices, which are expected to go up by three thousand dollars per vehicle on average. Meanwhile, TD Economics says it would

cost fifty billion dollars in new capital investment to stop all vehicle imports and to build those models in the US instead, but this comes at a time when capital is tight and interest rates are high. TD Economics says

just moving Canadian production to the US would involve building six new assembly plants. Three of the best selling cars

made in Canada are the Toyota Rev four, the Honda CRV, and the Chrysler PACIFICA. But automakers will not be in

any hurry to spend tens of billions to move production, especially if a change in administration in four years ends up with those teriffs going away or getting watered down.

RFQ Insights points out it took the Japanese automakers over ten years to build assembly plants in the US after the Reagan administration imposed the Voluntary Restrain Agreement. What we're

looking at here is the law of unintended consequences. Policies

that are designed to help the auto industry could end up doing the opposite. A good example of this is

in Europe, where automakers face billions of euros and fines this year for missing CO two targets. To avoid those fines,

they have to buy zero mission vehicle credits from automakers who are selling evs. Tesla and Volvo have already made

deals with several automakers. Unless something changes, automakers are also

going to end up buying ZEV credits from Chinese automakers who are selling evs in Europe. It's crazy. At the

same time the European automakers are fighting a threat from Chinese automakers, they could end up handing billions of euros over to their fiercest competitors in order to remain competitive.

Volkswagen said it's going to cut thirty five thousand jobs in slash production by over seven hundred and thirty thousand units in Germany by the end of the decade. But

according to reports, VW is giving each factory its own cost cutting target and then it's leaving it up to labor representatives and managers to figure it all out, and so far there hasn't been a lot of action, which is now leading to questions if VW can even hit its reduction targets at all.

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Speaker 1: Tesla's aging lineup and CEO Elon Musk divisiveness put a big debt in the company's brand value. According to research

and consulting firm Brand Finance, Tesla's brand value is now at forty three billion dollars, down from fifty eight billion at the beginning of twenty twenty four and sixty six billion dollars from twenty twenty three. Tesla is now the

third most valuable automaker, behind Toyota at nearly sixty five billion and Mercedes at fifty three billion dollars. Brand finance

looks at a company's revenue, licensing deals, margins, and more to calculate its value. The rankings also include consumer surveys,

and while Tesla's loyalty remains high, its recommendation score, which indicates whether or not people will speak favorably about a brand, has declined. But while consumers have cooled on Tesla, investors

have not. It's stock price soared after Donald Trump's reelection,

and it now has a market cap of one point three trillion dollars. The Mercedes Benz E Class was the

safest vehicle in Europe last year. The euro end Cap,

the organization that does crash in safety testing in Europe, said the E Class was the safest car it tested in twenty twenty four. The model received good scores in

four testing areas from passive to active safety, which awarded it the overall safety title of best Performer. Volvo's vehicle

naming is getting more confusing. The XC ninety is being

joined by the all electric version, the EX ninety. That

model is now also being built in the US and will go on sales soon in the US with a starting price just under eighty grand, not including destination charges, on top of the XC ninety and the EX ninety.

The all electric version of the XC forty, called XC forty Recharge, is being renamed the EX forty, but the XC forty name will live on for the mild hybrid versions.

Volvo also increase battery capacity in the EX forty from seventy eight to eighty two kilowat hours and bumped up the charging rate ever so slightly. The model will slot

right above the EX thirty, which is also going on sale soon in the US. It will launch with dual

motor all wheel drive versions that start just below forty five thousand dollars, not including destination charges and staying in the family. Polestar, which is also under the g l

umbrella but is really controlled by Chinese automaker Zeker another Glibrand, announced it will come out with a new premium compact SUV called the Polestar seven. While Polestar currently has manufacturing

in China, South Korea and the US, it says the Polestar seven will be made in Europe. Think The model

will be Polestar's version of the Volvo X thirty and will be made alongside that vehicle in Belgium. Under its

previous CEO, the seven was supposed to be a replacement for the Polestar Tu Sedan, but the new CEO says the two will live on. Reports say a second gen

version will be made on the same platform as the seven and be built at the same European factory. So

if we're right, the Volvo X thirty and the new Polestar two and seven will all be built in Belgium, which could really help it build scale off of one platform.

Oh and talk about confusing naming. Polestar names its vehicles

based on the order in which they were designed, not by size, so smaller number vehicles are bigger than bigger number vehicles in some cases. And then it's also the

other way around. Ford is reimbursing dealers in the US

that installed Level three EV charge. Back in twenty twenty two,

the automaker launched a program that required dealers to make EV investments, including installing chargers, which gave them the right to sell evs. But the program received a lot of

pushback from dealers, and last year Ford scrapped it. So

now the company is reimbursing dealers as much as two hundred and forty thousand dollars for installing the chargers. Ford's

EV sales haven't lived up to expectations, so now it's asking dealers to invest in EV training and spend a minimal amount on level two chargers instead. Brembo and Michelin

say a partnership they formed last October is already showing promising results by providing Brembo's break by wire system with real time tire grip data from Michelin software. They were

able to reduce braking distances by up to thirteen feet during anti breaking events. The technology also makes breaking smoother

with quicker response times, reduce traction loss, and improved stability.

And while the companies say the system is promising, they need to do more tests and it's too early to say when it could reach the market. But that brings

us to the end of today's show. Thanks for making

autoline a part of your day.

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AD #3975 - Trump Tariffs and EV Policy Could Damage U.S. Auto Industry; EU OEMs Paying Chinese For ZEV Credits; Tesla Brand Value Shrinks By

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