0:00 / 0:00
AD #3998 - Tesla Sales Forecast to Drop; Stella Could Ax Alfa, Maserati, DS and Lancia; Mercedes Gives Up on Dedicated EV Platforms

AD #3998 - Tesla Sales Forecast to Drop; Stella Could Ax Alfa, Maserati, DS and Lancia; Mercedes Gives Up on Dedicated EV Platforms

Autoline Daily Feb 24, 2025 10 min
0:00
0:00
Immersive Mode

About this episode

Stellantis faces tough choices with its sprawling brand portfolio, potentially cutting or merging smaller marques like Alfa Romeo, Maserati, DS, and Lancia due to low sales contributions. Tesla's sales are forecasted to decline in Q1, possibly impacted by shifting consumer sentiment and federal policy changes. Meanwhile, automakers like Mercedes are moving away from dedicated EV platforms to more flexible multi-powertrain architectures to reduce costs. India pushes EV production investment over charging infrastructure, and Europe debates CO2 emission rules amid hefty fines. The episode also covers skepticism around hydrogen fuel cells, with most listeners doubting their future viability.

Topics: stellantis brand strategy tesla sales forecast mercedes ev platform strategy india ev investment policy europe co2 emission regulations hydrogen fuel cell skepticism us auto production forecast bmw ev production delay government ev charging policy automotive industry challenges
Select text to request an explanation
Speaker 1: This is Underline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry. Whoever eventually gets hired as the
new CEO of Stilantis will have some big decisions to make.
Most experts believe that it's too expensive to feed fourteen brands, so some may have to go. Reuter's reports Stilants as
only looking at resumes of executives who already have a plan for what to do with its brands, otherwise they're not the right candidate. So the big questions become what
brands get merged and or do they go away completely?
Looking at it from a sales standpoint, Reuters has this great chart that shows that Alfa, Romeo, Launchia, and DS contribute only one percent each the company's total sales, Maserati is less than one percent, Chrysler and Dodge contribute about three percent each, while Fiat Pougeot, Jeep and Ram provide almost all the rest. Those smaller brands have fans all
over the world, and it would be hard to see any of them go away. But that's what people said
about Plymouth, Mercury, Saturn, Oldsmobile and Pontiac. President Trump wants
to slap twenty five percent import tariffs on all imported vehicles to force automakers to start building more cars and trucks in the US. So will it work right now?
Nobody knows, so RFQ Insights created a baseline forecast for the next couple of years that looks at US production and jobs and assumes that Trump does not slap on the tariffs and assumes he does not cut EV subsidies.
The forecast says US production will increase by four hundred and eighty two thousand vehicles by twenty twenty seven, and that manufacturing jobs in the industry will go up by eighty five thousand. That's if Trump does nothing, and RFQ
Insights says we can measure the impact of tearers and the elimination of EV subsidies by comparing what actually happens to the baseline. India wants automakers to prioritize investment in
EV production instead of the EV charging infrastructure. Last year,
India launched a new policy to attract EV investment, and it says if a company pledges to invest at least five hundred million dollars in an EV factory, it can then import cars at a fifteen percent tariff instead of one hundred percent. But Reuter's reports that India will only
allow automakers to count five percent of their total EV investment towards the charging infrastructure, even if they spend more than that. That seems to be a slap at Tesla
because it's probably about the only automaker that would build its own charging network there. Automakers in Europe face massive
fines over CO two emissions. Last week, two EV advocate
groups sent letters to the EU urging it not to back off CEO two rules for this year. But now
France is stepping up to the plate and is asking the EU to give automakers some more flexibility. Automakers say
they face up to fifteen billion euros and fines for missing CO two goals this year alone, so France is proposing a bank borrowing system which would allow OEMs to average out their emissions over one to two years to meet the target. Currently, automakers must pool their emissions with
companies that are compliant in order to avoid the fines, but that can be expensive and France says it hurts the competitiveness of the European industry. The EU is expected
to reveal its plan on CO two rules in early March.
Speaker 2: Knowing that a little rain won't slow down your day.
That's what really matters. Briach don't to runs a quiet tract,
tires confident control in wet conditions.
Speaker 1: It could be a rough sales year for Tesla. Volumes
had already started slipping in all major markets around the world, and now Calshi, a prediction market, forecasts the Tesla will deliver around three hundred and sixty thousand vehicles globally in the first quarter. That would be a seven percent drop
from last year, a twenty seven percent to climb from last quarter, and the lowest level it's seen since Q three of twenty twenty two. Things like the ramp up
of the new model Why could help explain some of Tesla's recent performance, but if the trend continues, there's likely other factors at play, like EV shoppers who want nothing to do with elon Musk anymore. US federal employees that
own eves might be looking for a new place to charge.
The General Services Administration, or GSA, which manages office buildings for the government, set it received direction from the Trumpet administration to start shutting down its EV chargers. As early
as this week, the GSA owns about eight thousand chargers, which were deemed quote not mission critical. Just a few
years ago, the thinking about electric cars was that it was best to have a dedicated EV platform built in a dedicated EV assembly plant that would allow automakers to optimize both the vehicle and its manufacturing for the best efficiency.
But then eve's failed to sell as well as the industry expected, and the dedicated platform and plant strategy turned out to be really expensive. So we're seeing automakers pivot
to platforms that can accommodate any kind of powertrain and plants that can build all of those variations. Mercedes Benz
is the latest to make the pivot for both passenger cars and commercial vans. On the vanside, Mercedes has a
platform called Van Electric Architecture or van EA and a variant called Van Combustion Architecture or VANCA, which will share seventy percent of their parts. And it's going to do
the same thing on the passenger car side, and will no longer use the EQ name as a separate brand for its new evs. Instead, evs will use the same
name as their IC versions, with EQ technology added on to it, so when the all electric version of the CLA comes out later this year, it will be called the CLA with EQ technology. While multi powertrain platforms and
plants make all the sense in the world from a capital spending standpoint, they're still less efficient than using dedicated platforms and plants. Another automaker is rethinking its EV plans.
BMW announced that it's reconsidering the timetable for producing electric minis in the UK. Two years ago, the automaker invested
more than seven hundred and five fifty million dollars at its plant in Oxford to make electric mini starting in twenty twenty six, and it planned to make the brand all electric by twenty thirty. But BMW is now rethinking
that plan because of quote multiple uncertainties in the auto industry, and it's reviewing the timing for starting EV production in the UK. We've got the results of our latest poll
on Friday. We asked what do you think the future
is for fuel cells running on hydrogen and most of you don't seem very optimistic. Thirty eight percent said hydrogen
fuel cells will never happen, eighteen percent maybe sometime in the future, but not now. Thirty six percent think that
fuel cells make sense for long haul trucking but not for passenger vehicles, and only nine percent thought the future for fuel cells looks bright. Over fourteen hundred of you
voted in the poll and posted ninety one comments, some of which were very detailed and thoughtful. The comments ranged
from those in favor like Mike f eighty six thirty nine, who said hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, we need to find a way to use it for energy, But that was countered by Totomy Playman forty three to Zho five, who pointed out h two fuel cells have failed to deliver in passenger cars in long haul trucking, and German transit agencies have canceled their fuel cell train projects for battery electric trains. And then there was Clay
who posted on the Autuline website that quote, if there was another option, I would say the best use case is a silent backup generator for buildings or for large cargo ships. And thanks to all of you who participated,
and we especially value your comments, and we'll be posting another poll later this week. But that brings us to
the end of today's show. Thanks for making autoline a
part of your day.
Speaker 3: Auto Line Daily is brought to you by Bridge Stone Solutions for your journey, Intrepid Control Systems over the air engineering boost your game, and by Tajan Automotive Technologies the formula for better mobility.
Speaker 4: There's nothing wrong with heavy metal, Hey light enough, but with world class composite material Tajent Automotive Technologies makes vehicles lighter, safer, and more eco friendly.
Speaker 5: Developing today's vehicles, issues can happen in an instant. What
good is knowing your problems without the data to solve them.
Wireless neo Via Cloud your secure off the shelf solution, empowering real time collaboration for quick resolution. With Wireless Neova Cloud,
your team can prevent issues before they can escalate. Driver
communication data and remote diagnostics to analyze and resolve your problems using OTA, allowing your executives to oversight throughout the process.
Wireless Neovi Cloud your vehicle update solution in production and on the road. Intrepid control systems driven by your data

Request an Explanation

Heard something you'd like explained? We'll add it to this episode.

Sign in to request explanations for terms you heard.

Want to learn more?

Browse our glossary for plain-English explanations of automotive terms, jargon, and concepts.

Explore Terms

More from Autoline Daily

AD #4312 - Can New Hypercar Turn Audi Around?; Trump Warns Industry About Right-to-Repair; Another Chip Shortage Brewing
Jun 5, 2026
AD #4311 - Uber Places Big Robotaxi Bets; Legacy Auto Getting AI Boost; Nissan Likely to Make Chery Cars in the UK
Jun 4, 2026
AD #4310 - Tata Pivots from JLR to China; Used EV Sales Surging; Lithium-Air Batteries Could Match Gas
Jun 3, 2026
AD #4309 - Kia Sets Sales Record Thanks to Hybrids; Tesla Faces FSD Lawsuit in China; Foxconn Takes Orders for 2nd EV
Jun 2, 2026