AD #4030 - Analysts Forecast Big Drop in U.S. Car Sales; Kia Developing EV Pickup for U.S.; Foxconn To Build 2 EVs In U.S.

Speaker 1: This was Outline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry. Looks like President Trump's tariff barrage

is probably going to hurt US car sales this year because all the major forecasting firms are lowering their sales projections.

Bank of America believes US car sales will drop anywhere from two point four to three point two million vehicles, which would be a financial disaster for most automakers and suppliers.

Cox Automotive is not as pessimistic. It says sales will

only fall two percent from last year, but it also thought that sales would be a lot higher this year.

Morning Star is a little more pessimistic than Cox Automotive and sees sales dropping by four hundred thousand vehicles. Global

Data sees sales coming in around fourteen point nine million vehicles this year and fourteen point five million next year.

Morgan Stanley is in the same ballpark, and Telemetry says sales in the US and Canada will drop by one point eight million units this year. So here's our autoline insight.

The rule of thumb in the industry is that everyone can make money at sixteen million units a year. Most

would struggle to hit break even at fifteen million, and nobody makes money below that. So here's the key thing

to watch. Tier two, three, and four suppliers. They're the

canaries in the coal mine, so to speak. If volume

drops to fourteen million, they're gonna start collapsing. Meanwhile, China's

new car sales shot up fourteen point four percent in March to one point nine million passenger vehicles, which is the fastest growth in ten years. Sales of new energy

vehicles shot up thirty eight percent to nine hundred and ninety one thousand units, capturing fifty one percent market share.

Even so, the March sales rate would equate to about twenty two point eight million vehicles for the full year, and the Chinese market has been stuck in the twenty two million range for about a decade. Meanwhile, China's car

exports dropped eight percent in March, and a key reason is that exports to Russia fell by fifty percent. Why

because Russia slapped higher tariffs unimported cars and China is about the only country that's exporting cars to Russia these days.

It's hard to separate politics and the auto industry, right now, especially with some of the top officials in the Trump administration throwing hand grenades at each other. Yesterday, Peter Navarro

dissed Elon, Musk and Tesla as not being a true car manufacturer. He called them a car assembler that of

course ignores the very high degree of vertical integration at Tesla.

So Elon fired back on X that quote, Navarro is truly a moron and that he is dumber than a sad of bricks. Navarro and Musk are battling each other

because Navarro wants high tariffs on everything, while Musk wants to see them negotiated down to zero.

Speaker 2: Performance that shines even in the rain. That's what really matters,

Brich don't pretends to tires, improved grip and wet conditions.

Speaker 1: US traffic deaths soared during the COVID pandemic because drivers were being less safe with fewer cars on the road, but Nitzer reports that traffic deaths fell last year to the lowest number since twenty twenty thirty nine. Three hundred

and forty five people were killed, a drop of three point eight percent compared to twenty twenty three. And while

it's encouraging to see the number of traffic deaths fall, there's still about three thousand higher than in twenty nineteen.

Volkswagenian's China EV sales in the first quarter fouled by thirty seven percent, while its overall sales in the country were down by seven point one percent. But VW thinks

that can turn that around with three all new vehicles, one coming from each of its Chinese joint venture partners.

FAW and VW are going to launch an electric sedan SAIC and VW are coming out with a range extended or E RevB segment SUV, and JAC and VW will have an all electric SUV. Volkswagen says it was able

to cut design and development time by more than thirty percent with the models, and production versions are supposed to start launching next year. By twenty twenty seven, the company

expects to have twenty new energy vehicles or nyvs in the Chinese market, which is giving it confidence in its future.

VW CEO said, quote, we have everything it takes to be successful in China. Kia is coming out with within

all electric pickup truck for North America based on a new EV platform that's designed for both city and off road driving, and that's just one of the things that Kia revealed that this year's investor Day, so let's dive into more of the details. The automaker will launch five

new models this year, plus upgrades to others like offering the cell tost and Tell You Ride with hybrids for the first time. Of the three point two two million

vehicles that Kia is forecasting to sell globally this year, which would be a four percent increase, it expects nearly half a million of those to be hybrids, and by the end of the decade, Kia thinks hybrid sales will reached nearly a million units. In terms of pure evs

the EV two, EV three, EV four, and EV five are all coming to the lineup. Kia expects those models

to push its total EV sales to one point two six million by twenty thirty, but that's actually three hundred forty thousand units lower than last year's forecast. However, it

believes that EV pickup we already mentioned the all new Taskman truck and its pbvs will help offset a good portion of the lower EV sales. The Taskman and PV

five commercial van launched this year, followed by the PV seven and twenty twenty seven, and the PV nine in twenty twenty nine. Kia is forecasting to sell four point

one to nine million vehicles by the end of the decade, down from last year's projection of four point three million.

Taiwanese contract manufacturer fox Con, which is best known for making electronic products like PlayStations and iPhones, is making a big push to build EV's for automakers, especially Japanese companies.

Last month, fox conformed a partnership to make evs for Mitsubishi, and the company has also held talks with Nissan and Honda, and earlier today, fox Con held a conference in Tokyo to tout its EV manufacturing capabilities. According to the company's

chief strategy officer, fox Con will have several Japanese partners within the next year, but he declined to name the companies.

He revealed that electric cars and buses made by Fox Cohn will be on roads in the next few years, including two models for the US, and he also added that Fox Cohn is building or retooling facilities in the US, Taiwan, and Thailand, and it's looking to expand capacity to India.

In the Middle East, with Chapung raising prices of its X nine Mini van. We wondered if the price war

in China was coming to an end, but it looks like that price hike might have more to do with poor sales. BYD is cutting prices on its Ocean series lineup,

including a version of the Seagull without smart driving technology that starts at about seven thousand, seven hundred dollars. That's

roughly eighteen hundred bucks cheaper than the previous starting price, which included the driver assistance features or what BYD has dubbed God's Eye. We were impressed by the Seagull during

a quick test about a year ago, and that was when it didn't have any smart driving tech and cost about eleven five hundred dollars, so we think this new version will help expand sales even more. BMW is showing

off the progress it's making with humanoid robots in its South Carolina assembly plant, started testing them last year with units made by California's startup Figure. BMW posted a video

showing the robots at the plant placing metal parts into a fixture to be welded, showcasing its parts retrieval and motor skills As you can see, though the robot is pretty slow. We don't think it can keep up with

the pace needed for mass production or what everybody in the industry calls tac time. Even so, this is just

the beginning and no doubt these robots are going to become faster and more skilled. As you all know, we

launched a membership drive on Patreon and YouTube to enlist your support for auto Line, and we're really grateful for all of you who have signed up. With all the

turmoil going on in the auto industry right now, we believe auto Line's content and messaging is more important than ever, so we really appreciate everyone that's been able to support us.

And that wraps up today's report. Thanks for watching.

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AD #4030 - Analysts Forecast Big Drop in U.S. Car Sales; Kia Developing EV Pickup for U.S.; Foxconn To Build 2 EVs In U.S.

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