AD #4055 - Trump EPA To Get Rid Of “Stop/Start”; Toyota Drops “4x” From bZ4x; IEA Lowers U.S. EV Sales Forecast

Speaker 1: This is Outoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry. Just two years ago, the IEA,

or International Energy Agency, forecasted that sales of EV's in the US would hit fifty percent market share by twenty thirty.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicted they'd hit forty eight percent. Well,

that was then, with the Trump administration and Republican allies looking to eliminate all ev subsidies, the IEA now says evs and hybrids will only hit twenty percent share by the end of the decade. Bloomberg Neef says EV's will

hit thirty percent. Even though that's a pretty big drop,

automakers would probably be happy with a thirty percent share, which would be over five million evs a year, or five times where they're currently running. The IEA also lowered

its forecast for how much oil that EV's will displace by the end of the decade. Last year, it said

EV's would cut oil consumption by six million barrels a day. Now,

because ev sales in the US and Europe are growing slower than expected, it says that they'll cut oil consumption by five point four million barrels. Currently, the world uses

about one hundred million barrels a day. And the IEA

isn't the only one lowering its EV forecast. Panasonic is

mothballing plans to build a third EV battery plant in the US. The CEO of Panasonic says he's relieved that

they didn't move forward on that third plant, and it sure looks like Subaru is going to slow down its investment in evs. In fact, the battery electric trail Seeker

SUV that had unveiled a month ago at the New York Auto Show may not even make it to the US market now. It was supposed to go on sale

next year, but Subaru faces a double whammy. Not only

are sales of EV's growing far slower than it is expected, the trail Seeker, which would be made in Japan, would fase twenty five percent tariffs. If it can't sell the

trail Seeker in the US, Subru doesn't have enough sales volume in the rest of the world to justify putting it into production. The American market accounts for about eighty

percent of Subru's global sales. As we reported earlier in

the week, there's a showdown brewing over California's stricter zero emission sales mandate that goes into effect this year. They

require that thirty five percent of twenty twenty six model year vehicles must be zero emission, and it increases eight percent a year until twenty thirty five, when it becomes one hundred percent. Vermont is one of eleven other states

that have adopted the rules, but it's governor Phil Scott just paused the requirements because its EVY sales are only around ten percent. Car dealers have also warned that the

mandate will limit the kinds of vehicles that they can sell, which we also factored into Vermont's decision. Maryland has paused

the mandate as well until the twenty twenty eight model year, and we wouldn't be surprised to see more states do the same. In speaking of scaling back environmental plans, General

Motors is suspending a fifty five million dollar project with Piston Automotive to open a hydrogen fuel cell plant in Detroit.

The automaker and supplier formed the deal last September, but GM says it is pause work at the plant and will decide whether to move forward in the coming weeks.

It's not clear why GM is pausing the project, and would only say that it has not been entirely canceled.

Speaker 2: There's nothing wrong with heavy metal, hey light enough, but with world class composite material Tagent automotive technologies makes vehicles lighter, safer, and more eco friendly.

Speaker 1: According to the head of the EPA, quote everybody hates stop start technology, so the agency is going to quote fix it. Stop start shuts the engine off anytime the

vehicle comes or is coming to a complete stop, and then starts it back up again once you let off the brake pedal. In some vehicles, that process can be

unpredictable and jarring, so some people shut it off. While

the EPA doesn't mandate the technology, it did start handing out a mission credits to automakers who installed it in twenty fourteen, but by twenty sixteen only nine percent of vehicles had stop start, so the EPA ramped up the credits in twenty seventeen. From what we can find, the

average credit is three grams of CO two per mile per vehicle, which we estimate is an increase of about one mpg That adds up fast when you apply it to each vehicle over their normal service life, and by twenty twenty two, sixty percent of vehicles had stop start technology.

But we think the EPA is going to drop the credit, so it will be interesting to see how that impacts the rollout of stop start technology. At the end of April,

Ford said it's piloting what it calls lithium manganese rich or LMR cells at a battery center in Michigan. These

batteries are safer, more energy dense, and costs less than other types of batteries, and Ford hopes to have them in vehicles before the end of the decade. Now. GM

announced that it's working with LG on a similar cell chemistry that will come out around the same time as Ford.

GM and LG are developing prismatic LMR cells and aim to commercialize production by twenty twenty eight. They will also

make the batteries in Michigan, so we wonder why the two automakers don't just partner up on LMR cells. He

is showing off a wheelchair accessible version of its PV five electric van. The model features a side entry system

that allows wheelchair users to board from the sidewalk. It

also includes a third row tip up seat that allows caregivers to assist wheelchair passengers from the side. Other highlights

include a three hundred kilogram or six hundred and sixty pound rated wheelchair entry ramp and a specially developed wheelchair belt fastening system. The van will be built in South Korea,

but it will initially launch in the UK and then expand to other markets. Bosch is making it perfectly clear

that it's investing heavily in the US market. The giant

German supplier invested two billion dollars in capex in the US so far this decade and plans to make another six billion dollars in acquisitions. With President Trump heavily criticizing

the EU, it's a smart move for European companies to point out how heavily invested they are in the United States.

And here's Bosch's story. It's been operating in the US

since nineteen employs twenty thousand people and has fifteen manufacturing facilities in six different states. BOSH is involved in multiple industries,

including consumer goods, industrial technology, building and energy technologies, and of course automotive, where it's involved in powertrains, eight s and all the other little pieces of technology and components that go along with that, And we mention this because it shows the delicate dance that foreign suppliers have to go through now to try and protect their business in the US. Toyota is launching an all new EV version

of the CHR that's scheduled to hit US showrooms sometime next year. It's built on the same platform as the BZ.

More on that in a moment, and comes standard with all wheel drive. Total system output is three hundred and

thirty eight horse power, and Toyota estimates it will do zero to sixty miles an hour, which is similar to zero to one hundred kilometers an hour in around five seconds.

The model is equipped with a nearly seventy five kilowad hour battery pack, which is expected to return around two hundred and ninety miles or four hundred and sixty six kilometers of range. Other highlights include a native NAX charging port,

a standard fourteen inch display screen, and a host of other driver assistance technologies. Now, let's go back to the BZ,

which has dropped the four X from its name for the twenty twenty six model year. While still available in

front wheel drive, the new BZ gets most of the same hardware as the CHRV, the same three hundred and thirty eight horse power all wheel drive system, which is a fifty percent increase over the previous model, the same NAX charging port, and the same fourteen inch display screen.

It also gets a twenty five percent range bump up to three hundred and fourteen miles, and a smaller roughly fifty eight kilowad hour battery that will be available on some front wheel drive models. The new BEZ will come

out sometime in the second half of this year. That

brings us to the end of today's show. Thanks for

making Auto Line part of your day.

Speaker 2: Autoline Daily is brought to you by Intrepid Control Systems over the year Engineering Boost Your Game, Tajent Automotive Technologies the Formula for Better Mobility, and by

AD #4055 - Trump EPA To Get Rid Of “Stop/Start”; Toyota Drops “4x” From bZ4x; IEA Lowers U.S. EV Sales Forecast

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