{"version":"1.0.0","episode":{"title":"\"Blue Sky is at Risk!\" The New Threat to Dealership Values (and the Brands to Buy Now) | Alan Haig, President of Haig Partners","url":"http://getcarcurious.com/episodes/blue-sky-is-at-risk-the-new-threat-to-dealership-values-and-the-brands-to-buy-now-alan-haig-president-of-haig-partners","audioUrl":"https://chrt.fm/track/C6AG88/traffic.megaphone.fm/CREUR3645235196.mp3","description":"Today I'm joined by Alan Haig, President of Haig Partners. \n\nWe dive into the shifting landscape of the auto buy-sell market, specifically focusing on how potential Chinese OEM entry could devastate U.S. franchise values. \n\nAlan breaks down the massive valuation gap between \"Blue Chip\" brands like Toyota and the struggling \"Zero Blue Sky\" franchises, while revealing why 15x multiples are still happening in today's market.\n\n\n\nThis episode is brought to you by:\n\n\n\n1.  Overfuel - Overfuel is the new technical standard in automotive websites, proven to grow sales by 30%+.  Whether you need more revenue or better support, they’ve got you covered. Visit @ here and enter code CDG500 to get $500 OFF a new website.\n\n\n\n2.  Siro - Siro’s AI gives dealerships full visibility into every conversation. It records, transcribes, and analyzes in-person conversations. Proactively flagging compliance issues, missed revenue opportunities, and training gaps. Go to @ here to learn more  \n\n\n\n3.  Haig Partners  - Public retailers cite it. National media trusts it. Dealers rely on it. The Haig Report® sets the standard for dealership M&A data and trends in auto retail. Read it @ here. \n\n\n\nCheck out Car Dealership Guy’s stuff:\n\n\n\nFor dealers:\n\nCDG Circles ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://cdgcircles.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nIndustry job board ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://jobs.dealershipguy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nDealership recruiting ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgrecruiting.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nFix your dealership’s social media ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.trynomad.co⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nRequest to be a podcast guest ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgguest.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\n\n\nFor industry vendors:\n\nAdvertise with Car Dealership Guy ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgpartner.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nIndustry job board ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://jobs.dealershipguy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nRequest to be a podcast guest ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgguest.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\n\n\nTopics:\n\n02:40 The Bill That Could Ban Chinese Cars.\n\n05:10 Why Australian Dealers Make Zero On New Cars.\n\n07:10 The Threat Destroying Blue Sky Values.\n\n09:25 Why Toyota Stores Trade For 15X Earnings.\n\n12:50 Why US Trucks Are Safer Than China.\n\n18:10 Dealer Profits Still Double Pre-COVID.\n\n21:50 The One Brand Where Bargains Are Appearing.\n\n24:45 The Smart Lever When New Car Gross Drops.\n\n26:40 Why Salespeople Can't Afford The Cars They Sell.\n\n30:50 The Mercedes Turnaround That Made It Hot Again.\n\n45:55 Infiniti Stores Selling For Zero Blue Sky.\n\n\n\nCar Dealership Guy Socials:\n\nX ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠x.com/GuyDealership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nInstagram ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/cardealershipguy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nTikTok ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@guydealership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nLinkedIn ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/cardealershipguy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nThreads ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠threads.net/@cardealershipguy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nFacebook ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠facebook.com/profile.php?id=100077402857683⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠\n\nEverything else ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠dealershipguy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠"},"annotations":[{"startTime":16.6,"endTime":42.6,"type":"company","title":"Haig Partners","url":"/glossary/haig-partners","quote":"Today, I'm joined again by Alan Haig, president of Haig Partners... Overfuel, zero, and of course, Haig Partners.","canonicalId":"company:haig-partners","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Haig Partners is referenced as the organization Alan Haig leads, positioning him as an industry authority on dealership valuation and franchise economics. The sponsor mention also indicates the episode is tied to dealership finance/valuation expertise.","simplifiedExplanation":"Haig Partners is the company connected to Alan Haig. They’re presented as part of the expertise behind the discussion on dealership value."}},{"startTime":268.3,"endTime":273.4,"type":"term","title":"powertrain","url":"/glossary/powertrain","quote":"[265.8s]  And the warranty is good for 36 months.\n[268.3s]  In the case of Hyundai and Kia, I think it's 60 months on the powertrain.\n[273.4s]  But some of these Chinese manufacturers are coming out with so many new products","canonicalId":"term:powertrain","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"The powertrain is the core mechanical system that makes the car move—typically the engine, transmission, and drivetrain components. The speaker notes that Hyundai and Kia offer longer powertrain coverage than the general warranty period.","simplifiedExplanation":"The powertrain is the main stuff that drives the car—engine and transmission and related parts. Some brands cover those parts longer than other components."}},{"startTime":268.3,"endTime":273.4,"type":"brand","title":"Kia","url":"/glossary/kia","quote":"[265.8s]  And the warranty is good for 36 months.\n[268.3s]  In the case of Hyundai and Kia, I think it's 60 months on the powertrain.\n[273.4s]  But some of these Chinese manufacturers are coming out with so many new products","canonicalId":"brand:kia","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Kia is mentioned alongside Hyundai as offering longer powertrain warranty coverage. The speaker uses this to highlight how established brands can reduce buyer uncertainty.","simplifiedExplanation":"Kia is mentioned because it provides longer warranty coverage for the car’s main mechanical parts. That helps buyers feel safer about ownership."}},{"startTime":309.9,"endTime":314.6,"type":"brand","title":"Geely","url":"/glossary/geely","quote":"[299.7s]  dealership group in Australia and Japanese brands entered Australia a few years ago.\n[305.2s]  Chinese brands, Chinese brands, excuse me.\n[307.5s]  And they took two of the franchises.\n[309.9s]  I think it was Geely and BYD and they were happy.\n[312.8s]  They were selling cars and they said they turned around.","canonicalId":"brand:geely","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Geely is named as one of the Chinese brands that entered Australia via franchise deals. The speaker uses it as an example of how new entrants can quickly change pricing and dealer profitability.","simplifiedExplanation":"Geely is mentioned as one of the Chinese brands that moved into Australia. The speaker is using it to show how new competition can squeeze dealer profits."}},{"startTime":309.9,"endTime":314.6,"type":"brand","title":"BYD","url":"/glossary/byd","quote":"[307.5s]  And they took two of the franchises.\n[309.9s]  I think it was Geely and BYD and they were happy.\n[312.8s]  They were selling cars and they said they turned around.","canonicalId":"brand:byd","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"BYD is cited alongside Geely as a Chinese brand that gained franchises in Australia. The speaker’s takeaway is that rapid brand expansion can force pricing down and reduce margins for dealers.","simplifiedExplanation":"BYD is mentioned as another Chinese brand that entered Australia. The point is that when more brands show up, dealers often have to cut prices to keep selling."}},{"startTime":344.7,"endTime":377.8,"type":"concept","title":"blue sky","url":"/glossary/blue-sky","quote":"Can you, can you sell a franchise today in that country for meaningful blue sky? ... But a huge chunk of value has to do with tangible blue sky, it's the goodwill.","canonicalId":"concept:blue-sky","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"“Blue sky” is a dealership-industry term for the intangible value of a franchise beyond the physical assets. It’s closely tied to expected future profits, brand strength, and customer demand, which is why it can swing quickly when market confidence changes.","simplifiedExplanation":"In dealership talk, “blue sky” means the extra value you’re paying for the business’s future earning power—not the building or equipment. If people think the brand or business will do poorly, that “blue sky” value drops."}},{"startTime":540.2,"endTime":545.7,"type":"brand","title":"Volkswagen","url":"/glossary/volkswagen","quote":"...until the 1950s, perhaps, and then Volkswagen entered the market.","canonicalId":"brand:volkswagen","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Volkswagen is cited as one of the first major non-U.S. automakers to enter the U.S. market after the 1950s. Its presence helped establish the pattern of foreign brands building demand in America, which is relevant to how dealers think about competition and brand strength.","simplifiedExplanation":"Volkswagen is one of the big German car companies. The point here is that it was an early example of a foreign brand coming into the U.S. and selling well."}},{"startTime":566.34,"endTime":570.08,"type":"car","title":"Toyota Glad Toyota","url":"/cars/toyota/land-cruiser","image":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/Cemoro-Lawang_Indonesia_Toyota-Land-Cruiser-01.jpg","quote":"...  So I would say most auto dealers have said, I'm glad Toyota came to this country  because that's my very best...","canonicalId":"car:toyota:land cruiser","priority":0.5,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"The Toyota Land Cruiser is a rugged, body-on-frame SUV known for durability and off-road capability. It’s often discussed by dealers because it has a strong reputation and a loyal customer base, which can make it a “safe bet” in showrooms. The podcast context suggests Toyota’s presence in the market is viewed positively, with the Land Cruiser highlighted as a standout.","simplifiedExplanation":"The Toyota Land Cruiser is a tough SUV made for rough roads and long-term ownership. It’s popular with people who want something reliable and capable. Dealers often mention it because it has a strong reputation and many buyers already know they want one.","imageAttribution":"CEphoto, Uwe Aranas (CC BY-SA 3.0)"}},{"startTime":618.5,"endTime":619.7,"type":"brand","title":"Hyundai","url":"/glossary/hyundai","quote":"So, you know, what is an import brand today? Is Hyundai an import brand today? I think they constructed the last major factory in this country.","canonicalId":"brand:hyundai","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Hyundai is a major automaker with a growing U.S. manufacturing footprint. In this segment, it’s used as an example of an “import brand” that has built factories in the United States.","simplifiedExplanation":"Hyundai is a car company that sells cars in the U.S. The speaker is pointing out that Hyundai also builds cars here, not just ships them in from overseas."}},{"startTime":639.6,"endTime":643.9,"type":"concept","title":"level playing field","url":"/glossary/level-playing-field","quote":"Those who understand manufacturing better than I believe it's not a level playing field in terms of the Chinese brands. That all of those factories have been funded essentially to export their product.","canonicalId":"concept:level-playing-field","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"A “level playing field” refers to fair competition where companies face similar costs, rules, and support. Here, the speaker argues Chinese automakers may not compete on equal terms due to government involvement and manufacturing support.","simplifiedExplanation":"A “level playing field” means everyone is competing under similar conditions. The speaker is saying Chinese brands may get extra help that makes it harder for other brands to compete fairly."}},{"startTime":723.0,"endTime":731.6,"type":"brand","title":"Nissan","url":"/glossary/nissan","quote":"Certainly the consumer is calling for lower priced products.\n\nAnd that's one thing which Nissan is focused on.","canonicalId":"brand:nissan","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Nissan is mentioned as focusing on lower-priced vehicles for consumers. The reference to “six vehicles under 25,000” highlights how automakers use entry-level pricing to maintain volume during value pressure.","simplifiedExplanation":"The host says Nissan is trying to sell more affordable cars. They’re aiming at models priced under about $25,000 to match what buyers want."}},{"startTime":744.9,"endTime":746.2,"type":"brand","title":"Ford","url":"/glossary/ford","quote":"We've almost retreated from all the sedans.\n\nFord doesn't make a little sedan.","canonicalId":"brand:ford","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Ford is used as an example of a U.S. automaker that doesn’t offer a “little sedan.” This illustrates how automakers have shifted product lineups away from smaller passenger cars toward trucks, SUVs, and crossovers.","simplifiedExplanation":"Ford is mentioned to make a point about product choices. The speaker is saying Ford isn’t really competing in the small-sedan category anymore."}},{"startTime":835.0,"endTime":913.24,"type":"brand","title":"Volvo","url":"/glossary/volvo","quote":"You're not just new Volvo, you're talking about divesting current. ... part of me thinks when I first heard that Volvo would have to be divested, I thought, wow, that could be bad.","canonicalId":"brand:volvo","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Volvo is a Swedish automaker that, in this discussion, is being considered for “divestment” due to concerns about ownership and technology control. The key point is how ownership by a foreign entity could affect whether vehicles can be sold in the U.S.","simplifiedExplanation":"Volvo is a car brand. In this segment, they’re talking about whether Volvo could have to be sold off to a different owner because of worries about who controls the company and what data/technology the cars use."}},{"startTime":883.3,"endTime":894.3,"type":"term","title":"EVs","url":"/glossary/ev","quote":"for a long time, the Volvo products, they were really going heavy towards EVs.","canonicalId":"term:evs","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"EVs are electric vehicles. The speaker claims Volvo leaned heavily toward EVs, implying it may have missed demand in the U.S. market for other types of vehicles during that period.","simplifiedExplanation":"EVs are electric cars that run on batteries instead of gasoline. The point being made is that Volvo may have focused too much on EVs and not enough on what U.S. shoppers wanted."}},{"startTime":968.4,"endTime":971.3,"type":"concept","title":"geopolitical risk","url":"/glossary/geopolitical-risk","quote":"Well, geopolitical risk has not gone away. We know that. Let's talk some headlines here.","canonicalId":"concept:geopolitical-risk","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"“Geopolitical risk” is the uncertainty caused by international politics—such as trade restrictions, sanctions, or supply-chain disruptions—that can affect automakers and dealer networks. In dealership valuation, it can change expected costs, inventory availability, and brand strategy.","simplifiedExplanation":"Geopolitical risk means world events that can disrupt business—like trade rules or political tensions. For car companies and dealers, it can affect supply, pricing, and profits."}},{"startTime":1006.9,"endTime":1012.1,"type":"concept","title":"Q4","quote":"Today, we're in April already, and Q4 was a bit rough on the sales side. Sar stumbled out the gate, and we know although macro shenanigans happen around the world,","canonicalId":"concept:q4","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"“Q4” is the fourth quarter of the year (October–December). In auto retail, Q4 performance often matters because it can reflect year-end inventory strategies, holiday demand, and how manufacturers and dealers manage incentives."}},{"startTime":1018.2,"endTime":1022.7,"type":"term","title":"oil prices","url":"/glossary/oil-prices","quote":"Sar stumbled out the gate, and we know although macro shenanigans happen around the world, of course, oil prices, that's impacting sales to a certain extent.","canonicalId":"term:oil-prices","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Oil prices can influence consumer behavior by affecting fuel costs and broader inflation expectations. Higher oil prices can change how people view operating costs, which can impact demand—especially for fuel-sensitive segments.","simplifiedExplanation":"Gas prices are tied to oil prices. If oil prices move, it can change what people pay at the pump, and that can affect car buying."}},{"startTime":1177.8,"endTime":1186.5,"type":"concept","title":"single store transactions","url":"/glossary/single-store-transactions","quote":"I noticed that single store transactions jumped from 64% of all deals in 21 to 81% in 2025. Why is this happening?","canonicalId":"concept:single-store-transactions","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"The speaker cites a shift in deal structure—single-store transactions rising as a share of all deals. This suggests more frequent selling of individual locations rather than only large group acquisitions.","simplifiedExplanation":"This is about what kinds of dealership deals are happening. The speaker says more deals are for one store at a time, not just big multi-store purchases."}},{"startTime":1192.8,"endTime":1195.5,"type":"concept","title":"M&A","url":"/glossary/m-a","quote":"There was a lot of M&A during COVID. We saw the number of stores per year jump from 350 stores on average pre-COVID","canonicalId":"concept:m-a","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"M&A stands for mergers and acquisitions—companies buying other companies or combining operations. In dealership land, it often means dealer groups consolidating multiple stores under one ownership structure.","simplifiedExplanation":"M&A means one company buys another company or merges with it. In car dealerships, it usually shows up when bigger groups buy many dealerships at once."}},{"startTime":1322.6,"endTime":1332.1,"type":"concept","title":"new vehicle profit","url":"/glossary/new-vehicle-profit","quote":"Yet new vehicle profit, PVR keeps declining. It was down 10.7% last year to $3,023 per vehicle.","canonicalId":"concept:new-vehicle-profit","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"“New vehicle profit” refers to the profitability dealerships earn from selling new cars, which can be influenced by pricing, incentives, and inventory/turnover. The speaker highlights that this profit metric is declining even as store-level profits improved.","simplifiedExplanation":"This is how much money dealerships make from selling new cars. The speaker is saying that part of the business is getting less profitable over time."}},{"startTime":1486.0,"endTime":1488.82,"type":"company","title":"AutoNation","url":"/glossary/autonation","quote":"But now that we're seeing new gross compression, my days at AutoNation, what I recall is when we were buying a store,","canonicalId":"company:autonation","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"AutoNation is a major U.S. automotive retailer, and the speaker references their experience there. In dealership-value discussions, large groups like AutoNation are often used as real-world examples of how store acquisitions and market cycles play out.","simplifiedExplanation":"AutoNation is a big car dealership company in the U.S. The speaker is drawing on their past experience there to explain how dealership buying and pricing can change."}},{"startTime":1504.5,"endTime":1516.8,"type":"concept","title":"bottom 25% performers","url":"/glossary/bottom-25-performers","quote":"Really by focusing on the bottom 25% performers, F and I people in the store.\nSo if I'm a dealer today and I'm concerned about my new vehicle gross is going down,\nI really think a smart thing they can do is to focus on\nbringing in more training for their F and I people.","canonicalId":"concept:bottom-25-performers","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"This is a performance-management approach: identify the lowest-performing employees (here, F and I staff) and focus training and coaching on them first. The idea is that lifting the weakest group can produce outsized gains in overall store profitability."}},{"startTime":1523.4,"endTime":1529.6,"type":"concept","title":"lift your bottom quartile up to average","url":"/glossary/lift-your-bottom-quartile-up-to-average","quote":"And if you can just lift your bottom performers,\nyour bottom quartile up to average, it has a big lift on the bottom line.\nI have noticed lots of dealers putting attention there.","canonicalId":"concept:lift-your-bottom-quartile-up-to-average","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"“Bottom quartile” refers to the lowest 25% of performers. The speaker’s point is that moving that group closer to average performance can create a measurable “lift” in store-level profit, especially in F and I where product penetration matters."}},{"startTime":1583.2,"endTime":1589.6,"type":"concept","title":"COVID","url":"/glossary/covid","quote":"Then during COVID, they were selling 30 cars a month, making 150,000, you know, or that's kind of where their income jumped to.","canonicalId":"concept:covid","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"The speaker references COVID as a period when dealership sales surged, changing how much revenue salespeople could generate. In dealership terms, it highlights how quickly demand, inventory, and pricing dynamics can shift and then normalize again.","simplifiedExplanation":"They’re talking about how COVID changed car sales. During that time, dealerships often sold more cars and made more money, and then things later cooled off."}},{"startTime":1663.4,"endTime":1667.5,"type":"concept","title":"tail","url":"/glossary/tail","quote":"not just during the warranty period, but for that tail, where the spending usually goes up significantly for the vehicle as it ages.","canonicalId":"concept:tail","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.86,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"“That tail” refers to the later-life period after the warranty when a vehicle typically requires more maintenance and repairs. For dealers, this is where long-term customer retention can materially increase service revenue.","simplifiedExplanation":"They mean the later years of ownership, after the warranty. That’s when cars usually need more work, so customers spend more on service."}},{"startTime":1784.8,"endTime":1791.0,"type":"term","title":"tens of thousands","url":"/glossary/tens-of-thousands","quote":"Well, they're [1784.8s] not cheap. I mean, you know, you have certain tools that are tens of thousands. And again,","canonicalId":"term:tens-of-thousands","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"The speaker notes that some AI tools cost “tens of thousands,” implying a meaningful upfront investment. This matters for dealerships because ROI depends on whether the tool’s efficiency gains translate into profit or lower prices.","simplifiedExplanation":"They’re warning that these tools aren’t cheap—some can cost a lot of money upfront. Dealerships need to make sure the benefits are worth that cost."}},{"startTime":1838.8,"endTime":1856.7,"type":"brand","title":"Mercedes-Benz","url":"/glossary/mercedes-benz-2da6bee1-2c59-4e63-8ca8-f0d3c6600182","quote":"...first thing that stood out to me was Mercedes-Benz. You had, or in your most recent report, they were one of the only brands that moved their blue sky evaluation. What changed?","canonicalId":"brand:mercedes-benz","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Mercedes-Benz is discussed as a standout brand whose dealership “blue sky” valuation improved. The episode ties that improvement to EV-related regulatory pressure, product/marketing missteps with early EVs, and changes in how the company controls dealership acquisition.","simplifiedExplanation":"They’re focusing on Mercedes-Benz and why its dealership value is changing. The key idea is that Mercedes’ EV strategy and dealer rules affect how desirable owning a Mercedes dealership is."}},{"startTime":1963.1,"endTime":1972.0,"type":"company","title":"Adam Chamberlain","url":"/glossary/adam-chamberlain","quote":"Adam Chamberlain has come in. He led Mercedes at a time where it was performing much better. Then he went into retail.","canonicalId":"company:adam-chamberlain","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Adam Chamberlain is referenced as the incoming executive who previously led Mercedes and later worked in retail. The point is that his background should help Mercedes tailor products and pricing to U.S. dealer realities and customer preferences.","simplifiedExplanation":"They’re talking about a specific executive coming in to lead Mercedes. The idea is that his past experience in both the brand and dealerships should help Mercedes sell better in the U.S."}},{"startTime":1967.6,"endTime":1967.6,"type":"company","title":"Lithia","url":"/glossary/lithia","quote":"He worked with Lithia for a number of years. So I think he has a greater understanding of the opportunities and challenges that exist for Mercedes at the retail level.","canonicalId":"company:lithia","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Lithia is a major dealership group. The speaker highlights that working at a large retailer gives leadership practical insight into how vehicles are sold and what customers respond to.","simplifiedExplanation":"Lithia is a big company that owns and runs lots of car dealerships. Experience there can help someone understand what actually sells cars day to day."}},{"startTime":2102.4,"endTime":2109.9,"type":"term","title":"F&I managers","url":"/glossary/f-i-managers","quote":"Get your F&I managers compliant and pitching every product 100% of the time.","canonicalId":"term:f-i-managers","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"F&I stands for finance and insurance, and F&I managers are responsible for the finance menu (loans/leases) and add-on products like warranties and protection plans. Their job is also to ensure compliance while maximizing product penetration.","simplifiedExplanation":"F&I managers run the finance part of the deal and help customers with add-ons like warranties and protection plans. They also have to follow the rules while doing it."}},{"startTime":2120.5,"endTime":2218.7,"type":"brand","title":"Audi","url":"/glossary/audi","quote":"Yeah. Audi. This was your franchise spotlight. Yeah. Down to about four to four and a half turns... Where's Audi? Is this the bottom of the cycle? Is this a good time to buy?","canonicalId":"brand:audi","priority":0.9,"confidence":0.95,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Audi is the central brand in this segment, with the host questioning whether it’s at the bottom of the cycle and whether it’s a good time to buy. They also explain dealer frustration tied to lower volume, expensive facility requirements, and product competitiveness.","simplifiedExplanation":"Audi is the main focus here. The host is saying Audi dealers have been struggling, and they’re debating whether Audi is now at a low point where buyers might get a better deal."}},{"startTime":2183.0,"endTime":2192.1,"type":"term","title":"mezzanines","url":"/glossary/mezzanines","quote":"They also required all these dealers to build these second floor mezzanines that were never used by consumers.","canonicalId":"term:mezzanines","priority":0.2,"confidence":0.85,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Mezzanines are intermediate floors built above the main showroom area. In this segment, the host claims Audi required second-floor mezzanines that were never used by consumers, making them an expensive requirement with little payoff."}},{"startTime":2489.3,"endTime":2500.0,"type":"car","title":"ID Buzz","url":"/cars/volkswagen/id-buzz","image":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/Volkswagen_ID._Buzz_1X7A1610.jpg","quote":"...the latest EV that I think that they launched was the ID Buzz, this van, which now is I don't even think it's for sale anymore.","canonicalId":"car:volkswagen:id buzz","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.9,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"The Volkswagen ID Buzz is an all-electric van based on VW’s ID electric platform. In the segment, it’s used as an example of an EV launch that didn’t translate into meaningful sales volume.","simplifiedExplanation":"The Volkswagen ID Buzz is an electric van. The speaker is saying that even though Volkswagen spent a lot to launch it, it didn’t end up selling in big numbers.","imageAttribution":"Alexander-93 (CC BY-SA 4.0)"}},{"startTime":3041.4,"endTime":3054.5,"type":"brand","title":"Honda","url":"/glossary/honda","quote":"...So they'll buy a nice Honda store, Korean brands are I think pretty good return on investment value.","canonicalId":"brand:honda","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.88,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Honda is mentioned as a “nice Honda store” that can deliver attractive ROI. The speaker frames certain brands as financially resilient—suggesting steady demand and strong dealer economics.","simplifiedExplanation":"Honda is mentioned as a brand where dealership investments can still make good business sense. The idea is that Honda tends to hold up well, so dealers can earn a solid return."}},{"startTime":3086.0,"endTime":3113.8,"type":"brand","title":"Mazda","url":"/glossary/mazda","quote":"...if I buy that Mazda store and carb continues to stay in effect, what products will Mazda have to sell its customers in California?... Today you look at the requirement to sell vehicles in California and they're not different than they are in Florida or Texas.","canonicalId":"brand:mazda","priority":0.5,"confidence":0.86,"source":"hybrid-fuzzy+gpt-5.4-nano","data":{"explanation":"Mazda is used to illustrate how California’s vehicle requirements affect dealer strategy. The speaker argues that Mazda doesn’t need a full EV lineup to succeed in California because the current requirements are similar to other states, and Mazda’s product pipeline still supports sales.","simplifiedExplanation":"Mazda is discussed in the context of California rules for selling vehicles. The speaker’s point is that even with those rules, Mazda can still sell successfully without needing every possible EV option."}}],"speakers":[{"id":"s1","name":"Car Dealership Guy","role":"host"}],"transcripts":[{"url":"http://getcarcurious.com/episodes/blue-sky-is-at-risk-the-new-threat-to-dealership-values-and-the-brands-to-buy-now-alan-haig-president-of-haig-partners/transcript.vtt","type":"text/vtt"}]}