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Welcome back to the podcast. Welcome back to our two part series called diesel gate 10 from lies to lithium. This is part two. If you missed part one yesterday, we tracked what happened with defeat devices, the software that made cars work differently, but they were being tested to when they were being driven on the real world.
Why the world in 2015 thought diesel was the answer to the tightening missions regulations around the world. And how Volkswagen's redemption resolution was a pivot to go even a reminder our bonus shows are exclusively for our Patreon supporters for the first seven days, only Patreon insiders get early access, get your name on the list of legends for $10 above a month.
And the power to shape the future shows. If that sounds like something you'd like to have a look at, check out patreon phtrion.com slash even use daily. No worries. If not because
Yeah, you just wait seven days, and it goes into the free feed anyway. So we left our story yesterday, the reputational damage of the big German also makers VW took the hit really
because they were the first ones to be discovered to doing this, but they were the ones that pivoted so hard and fast to EDV within just over 12 months of being discovered of cheating. They unveiled their plan to take the company electric.
And so today in the second part, we took more about what happened next and why the EV industry is where is because of diesel gate.
The most immediate and profound market impact of the scandal was the collapse of diesel passenger car sales in the European stronghold consumer trust was shattered cities across the continent began proposing bands on old diesel vehicles to combat air pollution eroding their resale value and appeal.
The market data tells a stark story in 2015 diesel sales were 52% of new car registrations in the entire European Union of which we were part of at the time.
So the UK was in those figures as well well over half some countries much much higher than 52% a decade later by mid 2025 the share has plummeted now to just 9.5% on average the rapid decline created a massive tech and market void.
Automakers needed a new technology to meet these new emissions reductions targets electric vehicles once a niche alternative with the only technologically mature politically acceptable long term solution diesel gate did not invent the electric car, but diesel gate cleared the path for its ascent by destroying its chief rival.
For the efficiency focused efficiency and compliance focused regulations.
What's the lasting legacy then of diesel gate well the decade following diesel gate we are marking 10 years to the week by the way since the EPA issued that faithful document has been one of the most disruptive periods possibly the most in the automotive history.
The crisis acted as an accelerant it triggered a cascade of regulatory pressures market forces tech transformations that totally reshaped the industry that we talk about every day the aftershocks of the 2015 deception continue to define the landscape today the most so the most direct and lasting legacy of diesel gate was an overhaul of the emissions testing regulations.
And they're still not perfect by the way spot the way that China's CLTC numbers differ from WLTP to the EPA range estimates there's no one globally agreed set of measurements and emissions testing and the scandal expose the glaring inadequacy of what was the existing lab based test cycles though they were very predictable they were highly outdated.
And as we all found out they were very easily manipulated.
The public and political outcry destroyed the credibility of the old way of doing it empowering regulators to be way more stringent and enact realistic protocols here in Europe this led to the implementation of the worldwide harmonized lights vehicle test procedure WLTP started in September 2017.
The WLTP is a longer more dynamic more rigorous test cycle that reflects more modern driving conditions than the old any DC new European driving cycle that it replaced crucially the new framework introduced on road testing using those portable emissions monitoring systems known as real driving emissions tests.
So the old pens became RDE tests which measures pollutants like nitrogen oxide under actual driving conditions making a software based defeat device impossible to implement well at least a lot more difficult to implement beyond testing protocols the scandal provided regulators with the political clout to pursue more ambitious long term climate goals the clear evidence of industry.
And the public health impact of excess emissions which is kind of the really dark side of what they were doing created a powerful mandate for strong government oversight the political momentum was a direct factor in the European Union's adoption of what they called fit for 55 it was a climate package which legislated a 100% reduction in emissions for new cars and vans sold.
For 20 55 effectively a phase out of all new internal combustion engine sales in the United States.
The settlement terms went way beyond financial penalties it compelled Volkswagen to invest 800 million in zero emission vehicle infrastructure and promoted projects in California things like funding the transition that it had sought to avoid
electrify America whether it's been good to you or bad to you over the years you wouldn't have been able to go EV at the speed at which the US went EV on such a massive land mass without that huge investment from Volkswagen in electrify America.
So how did EVs go from niche to mainstream well this crack down by the regulators back in the day and the collapse of diesel created already fertile ground for exponential EV growth.
What was a niche segment in 2015 became a mainstream force a decade later a transformation starkly illustrated when you look at the figures so in the European Union ten years ago this week the bev market share pure bev was less than 1%.
Now the pure bev so not just plug in is overall 15.6% but there's clearly countries that are way way ahead diesel was 52% on average of the European new light vehicle sales in the first six months of this year it's 9.5% plug in hybrids well they were about 1% as well now they're about 8.4.
So the total plug in market is about 25% in the European Union in the first six months of 2025 diesel 9.5.
In the United States it went from 0.7% to around 10% and in China 0.8% and that's what they call any V so that's plug in hybrids and bev's.
Well it's about 49% but on the regular EV news daily podcast I just talked this week about how the September figures are tracking to be almost a 60% plug in month 60% of China the world's biggest auto market
but they're selling millions of EVs a month it's crazy the last 10 years in China as the data shows in Europe the transition has been a direct replacement so there's been a complete shift of diesel dropping almost entirely absorbed by the rise of plug in so in China the effect was indirect but profound
while not a major diesel market the global industries post dieselgate pivot to EVs coincided perfectly with their Chinese strategic industrial policy set 10 years even before dieselgate when they realized they couldn't create the new Detroit they couldn't create the new German EV market they were never going to beat the established combustion makers with Chinese combustion engines
so what about a 20 year plan they said in 20 to 2005 to be the world leader in EVs we'll create battery electric technology we will create supply chains we have the raw materials
it's not worked out too badly 20 years later they implemented aggressive any of the mandates and policy the government implemented huge subsidies they denied it to the day to whether that's cheap money or that's loans that's keeping that banks keeping lost making car companies afloat regions and provinces keeping lost making car companies have looked just to get the lights on in factories massive over capacity in China
as a result though the plug in share has gone from 0.8 less than one to at least 50% it's going to be more than 50% when the year shakes out and in North America the growth has been gradual but significant the US EV market was 0.7% 10 years ago now it shakes out around 10 the expiration of the federal tax credits for new news cars
I've seen people saying it's going to fall off a cliff it totally won't it short term the US will you know on October the first people will not buy as many EVs as the day before you know because they're going to be more expensive but we got rid of our grants in the UK in Germany did as well they journey really wobbled we became much more resilient the car makers had to compete without any kind of assistance it does it shake things out a little bit when you get rid of subsidies and incentives
hey I'm not saying I want to pay more for my EV it kind of levels markets makes people compete on features and quality of EV rather than you know which ones are under a certain price or batteries were from a certain place and get a certain amount of money off and it skews markets not saying I want to pay more for EVs I'll just repeat that
so I'm not convinced about this argument the US is about to go through a dry patch you know I mean I think it's going to it's going to be a short term impact
we'll wait and see I'm optimistic the new landscape after 2015 changed so so quickly the industry's frantic post scandal race to electrify had unintended and well well I mean far reaching consequences
the sudden massive demand for lithium ion batteries created a gold rush for raw materials and manufacturing capacity to produce them
this played directly into the hands of the Chinese they already had government support going for 10 years before this
and they already had a dominant position in the EV battery supply chain from mineral processing to sell and pack manufacturing
diesel gate therefore accelerated China's move to become the world's biggest EV maker
the shift also focused a fundamental change in the core competencies required to make an automotive
just product the traditional strengths of the car makers particularly the German firms lay in complex mechanical engineering
of engines and transmissions the modern engine the modern transmission is a fabulous piece of engineering
the post diesel gate pivot to EVs rendered it all obsolete the car of the future wasn't about the engine or its displacement
or how many horsepower that engine could eke out it was what's the battery chemistry has it got a thermal management system
or what kind of app has that vehicle got the digital user experience all of their smarts built up over a hundred years
I didn't know what to do the transformation forced so many established companies to create new divisions dedicated to software C Carried
and battery production C powerco fundamentally altering the business model from being a vehicle manufacturer
almost a final assembler when you have so many tier one two two tier three suppliers just in time arrival at your factory that widget goes on that car
you're very good at assembling the widgets and making sure it all comes together at the right second
but you had to then suddenly become a system producer you had to get vertically integrated
this singular moment of crisis in the car industry on focusing on be EVs as the future path to hit emissions regulations
had the effect of sidelineing all the investment in other low carbon technologies hybrids hydrogen synthetic fuels investments take 5, 10, 15, 20 year plans
and overnight they had to be rethought
so in the post diesel gate era a decade after VW's deception was unveiled and then many others in the industry as well
which forced the industry reluctantly to go electric the automotive world finds itself at a critical point
the very regulations and market shifts that were a direct consequence of the scandal and now facing pushback from the same car makers
who had to embrace them at the time
the final chapter of our saga is currently being written in the boardrooms and lobbying offices of Europe as we speak right now
there's never been a louder lobby in the last 10 years where the industry really kept its head down and wanted to just fix its reputation
there is so much hardcore lobbying going on right now for the 2030 and 2035 bands on pure emissions vehicles to be rethought to be pushed back for more leeway to be given
for the car makers to reopen their investment in combustion technology because that's what they were really good at
how much of that is harking back to a past which simply doesn't exist anymore
the great pushback of questioning the 2035 mandate
it's a remarkable turn of events that over the last few months that I've been commentating on on EV news daily
all the big European automakers and their really powerful industry associations
whether that is the ACEA European automobile manufacturers association Germany's VDA
all of the even the local versions of around the you know country level lobby organizations they're actively lobbying to weaken the 2035 emissions regulations
the emissions regulations in many places never spelled out how they had to be met
they simply said you cannot keep emitting the way that you are doing so find a solution
they never said you have to go EV it's the great lie told by the car industry
in that are the regulators are forcing us to go EV the Chinese are making EVs at these low low cost
because of access to very low cost labor and cheap money from China and the banks and loans
and if you make us go EV we're going to lose the global you lose a German auto industry you lose the Detroit auto industry
the regulators have never said you have to go EV they just said work out new technologies
that reduce the emissions and EVs the answer the only answer is EV
and so their arguments center on the challenges they face
they say there's not enough charging infrastructure they say EVs cost too much for consumers
they say demand is softening they say the Chinese are coming well all of these facts maybe true or not
but all of these arguments have really easy answers if only the politicians were educated enough
and didn't roll over so easily in some cases on the slow rollout of public charging infrastructure
yeah Tesla thought that 10 years ago they built their own the high upfront cost of EVs for consumers
that's a lie there are so many monthly deals now that are just exactly the same they call it price parity
with the combustion version the cheapest new EV that I can buy here is the Jaguar spring
and it's now less than 12,000 pounds it's about 11,990 as of recording today it'll be cheaper tomorrow
that's for a brand new car not quadrucicle but a car that's not fabulously well specced
but it's reliable safe electric transport if that's what you need
not pretending that we've all got 12 grand lying around under the sofa
it's 12,000 pounds for a brand new car
and the monthly deals on those kind of cars that are around 16, 18, 20, 25,000 pounds
are competitive with anything else that you'd want to get into with an engine
softening demand in some markets that's just a lie
the markets and the car makers themselves set massive targets
maybe during lockdowns and pandemic kind of gold rush into EVs
and so some of those very ambitious targets might not be met that they themselves set
and they position it in the media as a softening of the market
now maybe the growth rate is slowing down but all markets that mature go at different speeds
so we enter this new market it's new world where the European China used to be level pegging a few years ago
now China is clearly out front like I said the September's targeting almost 60%
lugging of their new car market it's crazy it never gets talked about enough
and they're heading towards you know Norway Sweden figures like Sweden's about 60
some months have been more Norway's about 100%
and so China's heading that way Europe's about 25% the US about 10
we are splitting really into three big blocks of car buying people
and everyone's going to do it at different speeds but nowhere slowing down
so the car makers now advocate for what they call technology neutral approaches
which is let us get on with doing building cars
ease the regulations because it's too hard to do what you're asking us to do
maybe we'll invest some more in plug-in hybrids
the latest greatest thing is that they're branding e-revs, e-r-e-v
extended range electric vehicles kind of came from China
yet BMW did that with the Rexies ago it's not new technology
they got a plug on the side what defines an e-rev really is having a massive battery
like 40, 50, 60 kilowatt hours and an engine that isn't linked to the wheel
so it's just a generator but they can still sell engines
with batteries that big why are you putting an engine in it? It's fine
you know they're looking at e-fuels as the answer
the rhetoric from the top executives has shifted
BMW CEO Oliver Zipsa labelled the 2035th band I quote a big mistake
he argued that it ignores the full lifecycle emissions of vehicles
that it unfairly penalizes combustion engines
and the Stellanza CEO he's been chipping in as well
they got a great bunch of cars they'll sell you but
he's not arguing for you to buy one of those e-v's
I'll tell you what he said in a moment we'll take a break and come back
in the moment for the final part of diesel gate 10
as the holidays approach it's time to return to the classics
flaky pie crusts perfectly browned butter
and cookies with just the right texture
and one ingredient you cannot compromise on is carry gold butter
carry gold butter is crafted with milk from grass-fed cows
that graze on lush green pastures across family farms in Ireland
the result a rich creamy butter with a high butter fat content
that elevates every recipe whether you're making signature shortbread
or browning butter for a nutty depth in your pecan pie
carry gold makes all the difference the flavor is unmatched
and the texture it brings to baked goods is simply divine
so this holiday season if you're baking for loved ones
or just for yourself reach for carry gold
it's the butter of choice and your pies your cookies
and your cakes well thank you
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as the holidays approach it's time to return to the classics
flaky pie crusts perfectly browned butter
and cookies with just the right texture
and one ingredient you cannot compromise on is carry gold butter
carry gold butter is crafted with milk from grass fed cows
that graze on lush green pastures across family farms in Ireland
the result a rich creamy butter with a high butter fat content
that elevates every recipe
whether you're making signature shortbread or browning butter for a nutty depth
in your pecan pie carry gold makes all the difference
the flavor is unmatched
and the texture it brings to baked goods is simply divine
so this holiday season if you're baking for loved ones
or just for yourself reach for carry gold
it's the butter of choice
and your pies your cookies and your cakes
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welcome back to the podcast
so in our concluding part
of our diesel gate 10 investigation into how
that event 10 years ago this week
stimulated the EV industry
we get to this really ugly point now
where the car makers feel that their reputations have been
mended enough that now they can start pushing back on the 2035
clean goals that regulators are putting in place
oh yeah so we've heard from BMW
Stellantis, Stellantis CEO
Antonio Filoso who took the helm in June this year
scored on the 2035 target
to be labeled unrealistic
that was his word
urging for more flexibility
for hybrid technologies to allow them to carry on making engines
to avoid industrial decline in Europe
the pushback is not merely a debate over policy
it's an implicit of mission
that they can't do what the Chinese are doing
it's been forced
the industry was forced into a rapid and costly transition
now they can't compete profitably against
those that had an early advantage
that includes Tesla
and more significantly
the EV technology coming out of China
that had a 20 year head start by the way
the call is for flexibility
to attempt to slow it down
slow the game pro long combustion
and hybrid technologies
while we still hold that advantage they argue
giving them more time to catch up
they threaten of course massive job losses
and destruction of entire industries
despite the high-stakes lobbying effort
the trajectory towards EV is irreversible
amongst the fallout from dieselgate
a tiny and highly unpopular podcast was launched
on January the 16th 2018
it wasn't particularly called anything clever
it was about EV news being presented daily
by someone who was just becoming interested in the community
EV news daily started on January 16th 2018
it was a Twitter account for some time before that
but given my 20 year career in the broadcasting industry
I thought well I really should be podcasting
actually if it's the one thing that I know how to do
it's to do that
and so we're kind of heading towards 10 years of this podcast
and I think we're heading towards
well I think we've around 10 million downloads
but I don't really guess
it's a vanity metric who cares
well I think we're heading
we're in ballpark 10 million downloads
right so you know it's been a fantastic journey
over the last seven plus years
on this show to host this
to write it every single day
to chart the move of the automobile industry
I'm not an also industry long-term executive
I was an enthusiast
I still have an enthusiast I don't know anything
but back in the day
I had a diesel golf that was caught up in it
they went back to get the software reprogrammed
and on that day
I got the call to pick up my vehicle
and they upsold me a service package
and so I emailed the dealer manager
who I knew tangentially
through my business of working at the time in local radio
is a big sponsor a lot of the things that we did
a big client as well
and I explained my displeasure
that you got caught doing something wrong
you have zero contrition
and that when you went oh
your vehicle is now ready to pick up after we fixed it
admitting no nothing that they did wrong by the way
they weren't allowed to admit they did anything wrong in Europe
and by the way
let's run you through the options
that you can do to pay us some more money
I said stop right there
and so I wrote him a letter
and said I think that at this point in time
although you can't say
the words we're sorry
because you can't admit you did anything wrong
now's not the time for the big hard sell
and he never replied
that's okay I mean he
I'm nobody
but I felt the need to communicate that
and I felt so angry
towards a Volkswagen
and swore never to buy another one
I would now these days
that I don't stay angry at much for very long
but at the time I was really annoyed
one awful way to
to behave
and then to just use the opportunity of your car
coming back
to like sell me something
oh today's not the day
and so from that moment
in whenever that was 2016-2017
I super got into EVs
became really interested in this
I wasn't a I wasn't a dad at the time
this is the future that I want to leave behind
and so this is what I want to dedicate my life to
is educating people about this stuff
the tens of billions of dollars and euros
invested in any of your platforms like
feedw's m e b
upcoming m e b plus s s p s s p and more
the retooling of all the factories
the building of the battery giga factories across
Europe and North America
all the sunk cost is a monumental
thing that can't be unwound
don't be ridiculous
we're not going back to combustion
the CEOs live and die
on three monthly targets
and when they're not met
as we see even ones that are doing okay
like I think Stellantis
my American listeners think Stellantis is in the toilet
because the brands that you get access to there
I agree
I have a different perspective over here
it makes them very affordable cars in Stellantis
I think they're doing okay
and against that backdrop
time for a new CEO
like CEOs are always going to argue
they'll do what they have to do
in that moment
so you can't rip
they're not bad people
but they're saying bad things at the minute
consumer awareness has shifted
the 2035 target
might be 2032
it might be 2037
we have to have a target
it might be subject to minor adjustments
or not
but maybe they'll carve out some
regulations around e-fuel
so I don't know
but look
the target is set
we're not changing it
the legacy of dieselgate
doesn't lose
any impact from what it did
it's still fresh
it's 10 years old
yeah but it's profound and complex
and it was a necessary crisis
that completely broke
the industry's century long inertia
it forced a transition
that has to happen
for climate change
whether you believe in climate change
or not
then it has to happen
the reactive
the nature of the pivot
has been brutal
and I was trying to remember that
because I'm outside
the industry looking in
it's easy for me to say things
sometimes
but it must be impossible
because the compressed
timescale
that these companies are having to work do
it is industrial
it's economic
it's competitive challenges
that I can't possibly imagine
the ultimate irony of dieselgate remains
the scandal born
from a desperate attempt
to sell more combustion cars
resulted
in a complete shift
in the regulators
and the market
and that mandates
the complete elimination
the industry is now living in a future
that in 2015
they forced upon it
so where do we go
well as the industry navigates
it's final decade
a clear and steady hand
from both policy makers
and corporate leaders
I believe is required
I'll leave you with
a editorial opinion
stuff you can ignore
this last piece
just my thoughts
number one
if you're a policy maker
listening to this podcast
the massive private sector investments in EV
have been made on clear
long-term regulatory signals
the people arguing right now
for moving those goals
are doing it
because they have to do it
right now to appease
either a shareholder
or a board
and you should ignore it
if you move
on the court target of 2035
it creates market
chaos
it jeopardizes
the industrial competitiveness
of continents
Europe has been doing this
investment over the last ten years
if you listen to these short-term arguments
trust me
China will eat your lunch
but you must address barriers
policy support
has to shift
from stimulating demand
to eliminating barriers
there aren't many barriers left
so you must accelerate the deployment
of reliable
public charging everywhere
I'm a really big fan
of regulating
charging
it's because I worked my entire career
from when I was sixteen
my first ever job
in a regulated industry
the broadcast radio industry here
is heavily regulated
and I worked within a tight set of boundaries
and that maybe that's to do with
what you can say
and the power of your transmitter
and all those things
I'm just used to it
and it's because
the FM frequency band
and then digital
was a scarce resource
so it needed regulating
to ensure it wasn't abused
how we move around
how emergency vehicles
get to where they're going to go
how you do your errands
how we physically
industrial policy
is governed by reliable charging
I think it's so serious
I do believe there should be more
oversight of reliable charging
and for when charging is not reliable
and you turn up to something
that's broken
or the cables have been cut
proper resources and policing
is put into that
to make sure that those people
are brought to justice
and the unreliable charges
that those people
don't get the chance
to run charging businesses
it's not a popular viewpoint
this means accelerating
also deployment of
maybe more public infrastructure
that subsidise possibly
maybe policy
secure raw material
supply chains
for the car makers
that's what policy makers
at those levels can do
they can use
means-tested incentives
to make entry-level EVs
more affordable
I got money off my first two EVs
I bought back in the early early days
I didn't need the money off it
I took it, don't get me wrong
I'm not rich
but I wasn't
somebody who couldn't
still afford to have paid
the full price
so for the industry
I know how difficult it is
you need to innovate
and carry on innovating
resources spent lobbying
hours spent arguing
for moving dates
and targets back
use that time
invest that time
in solving the challenges
of electrification
the focus has to be on innovation
to win in the new marketplace
Europe is about to get
megawatt charging
BYD
a rolling out
a single cable
thousand kilowatt charging
for passenger cars
as a Chinese company
doing that
why isn't that a European company?
The next frontier of competition
should be
the affordable EV
particularly here in Europe
where
a lot of built-up areas
are physically older
smaller, more compressed
I live on a small island
everything's compressed here
right
so we need more small cars
we must have
the development
and adoption of low-cost
battery chemistries
lithium ion
phosphate
sodium based technologies
and solid state batteries
as well
designing smaller
more efficient
less expensive
vehicles
and as hardware becomes
more commoditized
because that's
happened
the key
difference
they want to differentiate
is the software
it's the experience
you have of driving the car
how connected it is
the overall experience
so
if you look at what's happening
with the Volkswagen
Rivian partnership
whether the recent reports
that that's
facing its own challenges
but
those kind of initiatives
are really smart
and that should be
embraced
in the industry
I think to building it
in-house software
you can compete
effectively
create that customer experience
because
you can't really do it
on making a slightly
better motor
or a slightly better battery
the road ahead
is challenging for everyone
but the path
is set
and was set
10 years ago
this week
as we mark
10 years of dieselgate
the legacy of dieselgate
is not one of scandal
and failure
let's forget that
it happened
it's in the books
let's move forward
it is of
transformation
breathing clean
air
passing a planet
onto the next
generations
that we're not totally
ashamed of
it's put the automotive
industry
on a path
towards a cleaner,
electric,
future
and we're not going back
that concludes
dieselgate 10
thanks for listening
I'll see you on the next one
as the holidays approach
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depth
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and your pies
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About this episode
The second part of the 'Dieselgate 10' series delves into the aftermath of Volkswagen's emissions scandal and its profound impact on the automotive industry. It discusses how Dieselgate catalyzed the decline of diesel vehicle sales in Europe, leading to a rapid pivot towards electric vehicles (EVs). The episode highlights the regulatory changes that emerged, including the introduction of more rigorous emissions testing. It also explores the competitive landscape, particularly how China capitalized on the situation to dominate the EV market. The ongoing debates among automakers about future regulations and the industry's shift towards electrification are also examined.
Welcome back to our two-part series called Dieselgate10 – From Lies To Lithium.
If you missed part 1 yesterday, we tracked what happened with defeat devices, why the world in 2015 thought diesel was the answer to tightening emissions regulations, and how Volkswagen’s redemption resolution was to pivot to electric cars.
A reminder our bonus shows are exclusively for our Patreon supporters. For the first 7 days, only Patreon insiders get early access, their name on the list of legends for Executive Producers and above, and the power to shape future shows. If being in the know and recognised as a supporter sounds like you, join us now at patreon.com/evnewsdaily and become part of something special.