BONUS: Dieselgate10 - From Lies To Lithium (Part 2)

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Welcome back to the podcast. Welcome back to our two part series called diesel gate 10 from lies to lithium. This is part two. If you missed part one yesterday, we tracked what happened with defeat devices, the software that made cars work differently, but they were being tested to when they were being driven on the real world.

Why the world in 2015 thought diesel was the answer to the tightening missions regulations around the world. And how Volkswagen's redemption resolution was a pivot to go even a reminder our bonus shows are exclusively for our Patreon supporters for the first seven days, only Patreon insiders get early access, get your name on the list of legends for $10 above a month.

And the power to shape the future shows. If that sounds like something you'd like to have a look at, check out patreon phtrion.com slash even use daily. No worries. If not because

Yeah, you just wait seven days, and it goes into the free feed anyway. So we left our story yesterday, the reputational damage of the big German also makers VW took the hit really

because they were the first ones to be discovered to doing this, but they were the ones that pivoted so hard and fast to EDV within just over 12 months of being discovered of cheating. They unveiled their plan to take the company electric.

And so today in the second part, we took more about what happened next and why the EV industry is where is because of diesel gate.

The most immediate and profound market impact of the scandal was the collapse of diesel passenger car sales in the European stronghold consumer trust was shattered cities across the continent began proposing bands on old diesel vehicles to combat air pollution eroding their resale value and appeal.

The market data tells a stark story in 2015 diesel sales were 52% of new car registrations in the entire European Union of which we were part of at the time.

So the UK was in those figures as well well over half some countries much much higher than 52% a decade later by mid 2025 the share has plummeted now to just 9.5% on average the rapid decline created a massive tech and market void.

Automakers needed a new technology to meet these new emissions reductions targets electric vehicles once a niche alternative with the only technologically mature politically acceptable long term solution diesel gate did not invent the electric car, but diesel gate cleared the path for its ascent by destroying its chief rival.

For the efficiency focused efficiency and compliance focused regulations.

What's the lasting legacy then of diesel gate well the decade following diesel gate we are marking 10 years to the week by the way since the EPA issued that faithful document has been one of the most disruptive periods possibly the most in the automotive history.

The crisis acted as an accelerant it triggered a cascade of regulatory pressures market forces tech transformations that totally reshaped the industry that we talk about every day the aftershocks of the 2015 deception continue to define the landscape today the most so the most direct and lasting legacy of diesel gate was an overhaul of the emissions testing regulations.

And they're still not perfect by the way spot the way that China's CLTC numbers differ from WLTP to the EPA range estimates there's no one globally agreed set of measurements and emissions testing and the scandal expose the glaring inadequacy of what was the existing lab based test cycles though they were very predictable they were highly outdated.

And as we all found out they were very easily manipulated.

The public and political outcry destroyed the credibility of the old way of doing it empowering regulators to be way more stringent and enact realistic protocols here in Europe this led to the implementation of the worldwide harmonized lights vehicle test procedure WLTP started in September 2017.

The WLTP is a longer more dynamic more rigorous test cycle that reflects more modern driving conditions than the old any DC new European driving cycle that it replaced crucially the new framework introduced on road testing using those portable emissions monitoring systems known as real driving emissions tests.

So the old pens became RDE tests which measures pollutants like nitrogen oxide under actual driving conditions making a software based defeat device impossible to implement well at least a lot more difficult to implement beyond testing protocols the scandal provided regulators with the political clout to pursue more ambitious long term climate goals the clear evidence of industry.

And the public health impact of excess emissions which is kind of the really dark side of what they were doing created a powerful mandate for strong government oversight the political momentum was a direct factor in the European Union's adoption of what they called fit for 55 it was a climate package which legislated a 100% reduction in emissions for new cars and vans sold.

For 20 55 effectively a phase out of all new internal combustion engine sales in the United States.

The settlement terms went way beyond financial penalties it compelled Volkswagen to invest 800 million in zero emission vehicle infrastructure and promoted projects in California things like funding the transition that it had sought to avoid

electrify America whether it's been good to you or bad to you over the years you wouldn't have been able to go EV at the speed at which the US went EV on such a massive land mass without that huge investment from Volkswagen in electrify America.

So how did EVs go from niche to mainstream well this crack down by the regulators back in the day and the collapse of diesel created already fertile ground for exponential EV growth.

What was a niche segment in 2015 became a mainstream force a decade later a transformation starkly illustrated when you look at the figures so in the European Union ten years ago this week the bev market share pure bev was less than 1%.

Now the pure bev so not just plug in is overall 15.6% but there's clearly countries that are way way ahead diesel was 52% on average of the European new light vehicle sales in the first six months of this year it's 9.5% plug in hybrids well they were about 1% as well now they're about 8.4.

So the total plug in market is about 25% in the European Union in the first six months of 2025 diesel 9.5.

In the United States it went from 0.7% to around 10% and in China 0.8% and that's what they call any V so that's plug in hybrids and bev's.

Well it's about 49% but on the regular EV news daily podcast I just talked this week about how the September figures are tracking to be almost a 60% plug in month 60% of China the world's biggest auto market

but they're selling millions of EVs a month it's crazy the last 10 years in China as the data shows in Europe the transition has been a direct replacement so there's been a complete shift of diesel dropping almost entirely absorbed by the rise of plug in so in China the effect was indirect but profound

while not a major diesel market the global industries post dieselgate pivot to EVs coincided perfectly with their Chinese strategic industrial policy set 10 years even before dieselgate when they realized they couldn't create the new Detroit they couldn't create the new German EV market they were never going to beat the established combustion makers with Chinese combustion engines

so what about a 20 year plan they said in 20 to 2005 to be the world leader in EVs we'll create battery electric technology we will create supply chains we have the raw materials

it's not worked out too badly 20 years later they implemented aggressive any of the mandates and policy the government implemented huge subsidies they denied it to the day to whether that's cheap money or that's loans that's keeping that banks keeping lost making car companies afloat regions and provinces keeping lost making car companies have looked just to get the lights on in factories massive over capacity in China

as a result though the plug in share has gone from 0.8 less than one to at least 50% it's going to be more than 50% when the year shakes out and in North America the growth has been gradual but significant the US EV market was 0.7% 10 years ago now it shakes out around 10 the expiration of the federal tax credits for new news cars

I've seen people saying it's going to fall off a cliff it totally won't it short term the US will you know on October the first people will not buy as many EVs as the day before you know because they're going to be more expensive but we got rid of our grants in the UK in Germany did as well they journey really wobbled we became much more resilient the car makers had to compete without any kind of assistance it does it shake things out a little bit when you get rid of subsidies and incentives

hey I'm not saying I want to pay more for my EV it kind of levels markets makes people compete on features and quality of EV rather than you know which ones are under a certain price or batteries were from a certain place and get a certain amount of money off and it skews markets not saying I want to pay more for EVs I'll just repeat that

so I'm not convinced about this argument the US is about to go through a dry patch you know I mean I think it's going to it's going to be a short term impact

we'll wait and see I'm optimistic the new landscape after 2015 changed so so quickly the industry's frantic post scandal race to electrify had unintended and well well I mean far reaching consequences

the sudden massive demand for lithium ion batteries created a gold rush for raw materials and manufacturing capacity to produce them

this played directly into the hands of the Chinese they already had government support going for 10 years before this

and they already had a dominant position in the EV battery supply chain from mineral processing to sell and pack manufacturing

diesel gate therefore accelerated China's move to become the world's biggest EV maker

the shift also focused a fundamental change in the core competencies required to make an automotive

just product the traditional strengths of the car makers particularly the German firms lay in complex mechanical engineering

of engines and transmissions the modern engine the modern transmission is a fabulous piece of engineering

the post diesel gate pivot to EVs rendered it all obsolete the car of the future wasn't about the engine or its displacement

or how many horsepower that engine could eke out it was what's the battery chemistry has it got a thermal management system

or what kind of app has that vehicle got the digital user experience all of their smarts built up over a hundred years

I didn't know what to do the transformation forced so many established companies to create new divisions dedicated to software C Carried

and battery production C powerco fundamentally altering the business model from being a vehicle manufacturer

almost a final assembler when you have so many tier one two two tier three suppliers just in time arrival at your factory that widget goes on that car

you're very good at assembling the widgets and making sure it all comes together at the right second

but you had to then suddenly become a system producer you had to get vertically integrated

this singular moment of crisis in the car industry on focusing on be EVs as the future path to hit emissions regulations

had the effect of sidelineing all the investment in other low carbon technologies hybrids hydrogen synthetic fuels investments take 5, 10, 15, 20 year plans

and overnight they had to be rethought

so in the post diesel gate era a decade after VW's deception was unveiled and then many others in the industry as well

which forced the industry reluctantly to go electric the automotive world finds itself at a critical point

the very regulations and market shifts that were a direct consequence of the scandal and now facing pushback from the same car makers

who had to embrace them at the time

the final chapter of our saga is currently being written in the boardrooms and lobbying offices of Europe as we speak right now

there's never been a louder lobby in the last 10 years where the industry really kept its head down and wanted to just fix its reputation

there is so much hardcore lobbying going on right now for the 2030 and 2035 bands on pure emissions vehicles to be rethought to be pushed back for more leeway to be given

for the car makers to reopen their investment in combustion technology because that's what they were really good at

how much of that is harking back to a past which simply doesn't exist anymore

the great pushback of questioning the 2035 mandate

it's a remarkable turn of events that over the last few months that I've been commentating on on EV news daily

all the big European automakers and their really powerful industry associations

whether that is the ACEA European automobile manufacturers association Germany's VDA

all of the even the local versions of around the you know country level lobby organizations they're actively lobbying to weaken the 2035 emissions regulations

the emissions regulations in many places never spelled out how they had to be met

they simply said you cannot keep emitting the way that you are doing so find a solution

they never said you have to go EV it's the great lie told by the car industry

in that are the regulators are forcing us to go EV the Chinese are making EVs at these low low cost

because of access to very low cost labor and cheap money from China and the banks and loans

and if you make us go EV we're going to lose the global you lose a German auto industry you lose the Detroit auto industry

the regulators have never said you have to go EV they just said work out new technologies

that reduce the emissions and EVs the answer the only answer is EV

and so their arguments center on the challenges they face

they say there's not enough charging infrastructure they say EVs cost too much for consumers

they say demand is softening they say the Chinese are coming well all of these facts maybe true or not

but all of these arguments have really easy answers if only the politicians were educated enough

and didn't roll over so easily in some cases on the slow rollout of public charging infrastructure

yeah Tesla thought that 10 years ago they built their own the high upfront cost of EVs for consumers

that's a lie there are so many monthly deals now that are just exactly the same they call it price parity

with the combustion version the cheapest new EV that I can buy here is the Jaguar spring

and it's now less than 12,000 pounds it's about 11,990 as of recording today it'll be cheaper tomorrow

that's for a brand new car not quadrucicle but a car that's not fabulously well specced

but it's reliable safe electric transport if that's what you need

not pretending that we've all got 12 grand lying around under the sofa

it's 12,000 pounds for a brand new car

and the monthly deals on those kind of cars that are around 16, 18, 20, 25,000 pounds

are competitive with anything else that you'd want to get into with an engine

softening demand in some markets that's just a lie

the markets and the car makers themselves set massive targets

maybe during lockdowns and pandemic kind of gold rush into EVs

and so some of those very ambitious targets might not be met that they themselves set

and they position it in the media as a softening of the market

now maybe the growth rate is slowing down but all markets that mature go at different speeds

so we enter this new market it's new world where the European China used to be level pegging a few years ago

now China is clearly out front like I said the September's targeting almost 60%

lugging of their new car market it's crazy it never gets talked about enough

and they're heading towards you know Norway Sweden figures like Sweden's about 60

some months have been more Norway's about 100%

and so China's heading that way Europe's about 25% the US about 10

we are splitting really into three big blocks of car buying people

and everyone's going to do it at different speeds but nowhere slowing down

so the car makers now advocate for what they call technology neutral approaches

which is let us get on with doing building cars

ease the regulations because it's too hard to do what you're asking us to do

maybe we'll invest some more in plug-in hybrids

the latest greatest thing is that they're branding e-revs, e-r-e-v

extended range electric vehicles kind of came from China

yet BMW did that with the Rexies ago it's not new technology

they got a plug on the side what defines an e-rev really is having a massive battery

like 40, 50, 60 kilowatt hours and an engine that isn't linked to the wheel

so it's just a generator but they can still sell engines

with batteries that big why are you putting an engine in it? It's fine

you know they're looking at e-fuels as the answer

the rhetoric from the top executives has shifted

BMW CEO Oliver Zipsa labelled the 2035th band I quote a big mistake

he argued that it ignores the full lifecycle emissions of vehicles

that it unfairly penalizes combustion engines

and the Stellanza CEO he's been chipping in as well

they got a great bunch of cars they'll sell you but

he's not arguing for you to buy one of those e-v's

I'll tell you what he said in a moment we'll take a break and come back

in the moment for the final part of diesel gate 10

as the holidays approach it's time to return to the classics

flaky pie crusts perfectly browned butter

and cookies with just the right texture

and one ingredient you cannot compromise on is carry gold butter

carry gold butter is crafted with milk from grass-fed cows

that graze on lush green pastures across family farms in Ireland

the result a rich creamy butter with a high butter fat content

that elevates every recipe whether you're making signature shortbread

or browning butter for a nutty depth in your pecan pie

carry gold makes all the difference the flavor is unmatched

and the texture it brings to baked goods is simply divine

so this holiday season if you're baking for loved ones

or just for yourself reach for carry gold

it's the butter of choice and your pies your cookies

and your cakes well thank you

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as the holidays approach it's time to return to the classics

flaky pie crusts perfectly browned butter

and cookies with just the right texture

and one ingredient you cannot compromise on is carry gold butter

carry gold butter is crafted with milk from grass fed cows

that graze on lush green pastures across family farms in Ireland

the result a rich creamy butter with a high butter fat content

that elevates every recipe

whether you're making signature shortbread or browning butter for a nutty depth

in your pecan pie carry gold makes all the difference

the flavor is unmatched

and the texture it brings to baked goods is simply divine

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welcome back to the podcast

so in our concluding part

of our diesel gate 10 investigation into how

that event 10 years ago this week

stimulated the EV industry

we get to this really ugly point now

where the car makers feel that their reputations have been

mended enough that now they can start pushing back on the 2035

clean goals that regulators are putting in place

oh yeah so we've heard from BMW

Stellantis, Stellantis CEO

Antonio Filoso who took the helm in June this year

scored on the 2035 target

to be labeled unrealistic

that was his word

urging for more flexibility

for hybrid technologies to allow them to carry on making engines

to avoid industrial decline in Europe

the pushback is not merely a debate over policy

it's an implicit of mission

that they can't do what the Chinese are doing

it's been forced

the industry was forced into a rapid and costly transition

now they can't compete profitably against

those that had an early advantage

that includes Tesla

and more significantly

the EV technology coming out of China

that had a 20 year head start by the way

the call is for flexibility

to attempt to slow it down

slow the game pro long combustion

and hybrid technologies

while we still hold that advantage they argue

giving them more time to catch up

they threaten of course massive job losses

and destruction of entire industries

despite the high-stakes lobbying effort

the trajectory towards EV is irreversible

amongst the fallout from dieselgate

a tiny and highly unpopular podcast was launched

on January the 16th 2018

it wasn't particularly called anything clever

it was about EV news being presented daily

by someone who was just becoming interested in the community

EV news daily started on January 16th 2018

it was a Twitter account for some time before that

but given my 20 year career in the broadcasting industry

I thought well I really should be podcasting

actually if it's the one thing that I know how to do

it's to do that

and so we're kind of heading towards 10 years of this podcast

and I think we're heading towards

well I think we've around 10 million downloads

but I don't really guess

it's a vanity metric who cares

well I think we're heading

we're in ballpark 10 million downloads

right so you know it's been a fantastic journey

over the last seven plus years

on this show to host this

to write it every single day

to chart the move of the automobile industry

I'm not an also industry long-term executive

I was an enthusiast

I still have an enthusiast I don't know anything

but back in the day

I had a diesel golf that was caught up in it

they went back to get the software reprogrammed

and on that day

I got the call to pick up my vehicle

and they upsold me a service package

and so I emailed the dealer manager

who I knew tangentially

through my business of working at the time in local radio

is a big sponsor a lot of the things that we did

a big client as well

and I explained my displeasure

that you got caught doing something wrong

you have zero contrition

and that when you went oh

your vehicle is now ready to pick up after we fixed it

admitting no nothing that they did wrong by the way

they weren't allowed to admit they did anything wrong in Europe

and by the way

let's run you through the options

that you can do to pay us some more money

I said stop right there

and so I wrote him a letter

and said I think that at this point in time

although you can't say

the words we're sorry

because you can't admit you did anything wrong

now's not the time for the big hard sell

and he never replied

that's okay I mean he

I'm nobody

but I felt the need to communicate that

and I felt so angry

towards a Volkswagen

and swore never to buy another one

I would now these days

that I don't stay angry at much for very long

but at the time I was really annoyed

one awful way to

to behave

and then to just use the opportunity of your car

coming back

to like sell me something

oh today's not the day

and so from that moment

in whenever that was 2016-2017

I super got into EVs

became really interested in this

I wasn't a I wasn't a dad at the time

this is the future that I want to leave behind

and so this is what I want to dedicate my life to

is educating people about this stuff

the tens of billions of dollars and euros

invested in any of your platforms like

feedw's m e b

upcoming m e b plus s s p s s p and more

the retooling of all the factories

the building of the battery giga factories across

Europe and North America

all the sunk cost is a monumental

thing that can't be unwound

don't be ridiculous

we're not going back to combustion

the CEOs live and die

on three monthly targets

and when they're not met

as we see even ones that are doing okay

like I think Stellantis

my American listeners think Stellantis is in the toilet

because the brands that you get access to there

I agree

I have a different perspective over here

it makes them very affordable cars in Stellantis

I think they're doing okay

and against that backdrop

time for a new CEO

like CEOs are always going to argue

they'll do what they have to do

in that moment

so you can't rip

they're not bad people

but they're saying bad things at the minute

consumer awareness has shifted

the 2035 target

might be 2032

it might be 2037

we have to have a target

it might be subject to minor adjustments

or not

but maybe they'll carve out some

regulations around e-fuel

so I don't know

but look

the target is set

we're not changing it

the legacy of dieselgate

doesn't lose

any impact from what it did

it's still fresh

it's 10 years old

yeah but it's profound and complex

and it was a necessary crisis

that completely broke

the industry's century long inertia

it forced a transition

that has to happen

for climate change

whether you believe in climate change

or not

then it has to happen

the reactive

the nature of the pivot

has been brutal

and I was trying to remember that

because I'm outside

the industry looking in

it's easy for me to say things

sometimes

but it must be impossible

because the compressed

timescale

that these companies are having to work do

it is industrial

it's economic

it's competitive challenges

that I can't possibly imagine

the ultimate irony of dieselgate remains

the scandal born

from a desperate attempt

to sell more combustion cars

resulted

in a complete shift

in the regulators

and the market

and that mandates

the complete elimination

the industry is now living in a future

that in 2015

they forced upon it

so where do we go

well as the industry navigates

it's final decade

a clear and steady hand

from both policy makers

and corporate leaders

I believe is required

I'll leave you with

a editorial opinion

stuff you can ignore

this last piece

just my thoughts

number one

if you're a policy maker

listening to this podcast

the massive private sector investments in EV

have been made on clear

long-term regulatory signals

the people arguing right now

for moving those goals

are doing it

because they have to do it

right now to appease

either a shareholder

or a board

and you should ignore it

if you move

on the court target of 2035

it creates market

chaos

it jeopardizes

the industrial competitiveness

of continents

Europe has been doing this

investment over the last ten years

if you listen to these short-term arguments

trust me

China will eat your lunch

but you must address barriers

policy support

has to shift

from stimulating demand

to eliminating barriers

there aren't many barriers left

so you must accelerate the deployment

of reliable

public charging everywhere

I'm a really big fan

of regulating

charging

it's because I worked my entire career

from when I was sixteen

my first ever job

in a regulated industry

the broadcast radio industry here

is heavily regulated

and I worked within a tight set of boundaries

and that maybe that's to do with

what you can say

and the power of your transmitter

and all those things

I'm just used to it

and it's because

the FM frequency band

and then digital

was a scarce resource

so it needed regulating

to ensure it wasn't abused

how we move around

how emergency vehicles

get to where they're going to go

how you do your errands

how we physically

industrial policy

is governed by reliable charging

I think it's so serious

I do believe there should be more

oversight of reliable charging

and for when charging is not reliable

and you turn up to something

that's broken

or the cables have been cut

proper resources and policing

is put into that

to make sure that those people

are brought to justice

and the unreliable charges

that those people

don't get the chance

to run charging businesses

it's not a popular viewpoint

this means accelerating

also deployment of

maybe more public infrastructure

that subsidise possibly

maybe policy

secure raw material

supply chains

for the car makers

that's what policy makers

at those levels can do

they can use

means-tested incentives

to make entry-level EVs

more affordable

I got money off my first two EVs

I bought back in the early early days

I didn't need the money off it

I took it, don't get me wrong

I'm not rich

but I wasn't

somebody who couldn't

still afford to have paid

the full price

so for the industry

I know how difficult it is

you need to innovate

and carry on innovating

resources spent lobbying

hours spent arguing

for moving dates

and targets back

use that time

invest that time

in solving the challenges

of electrification

the focus has to be on innovation

to win in the new marketplace

Europe is about to get

megawatt charging

BYD

a rolling out

a single cable

thousand kilowatt charging

for passenger cars

as a Chinese company

doing that

why isn't that a European company?

The next frontier of competition

should be

the affordable EV

particularly here in Europe

where

a lot of built-up areas

are physically older

smaller, more compressed

I live on a small island

everything's compressed here

right

so we need more small cars

we must have

the development

and adoption of low-cost

battery chemistries

lithium ion

phosphate

sodium based technologies

and solid state batteries

as well

designing smaller

more efficient

less expensive

vehicles

and as hardware becomes

more commoditized

because that's

happened

the key

difference

they want to differentiate

is the software

it's the experience

you have of driving the car

how connected it is

the overall experience

so

if you look at what's happening

with the Volkswagen

Rivian partnership

whether the recent reports

that that's

facing its own challenges

but

those kind of initiatives

are really smart

and that should be

embraced

in the industry

I think to building it

in-house software

you can compete

effectively

create that customer experience

because

you can't really do it

on making a slightly

better motor

or a slightly better battery

the road ahead

is challenging for everyone

but the path

is set

and was set

10 years ago

this week

as we mark

10 years of dieselgate

the legacy of dieselgate

is not one of scandal

and failure

let's forget that

it happened

it's in the books

let's move forward

it is of

transformation

breathing clean

air

passing a planet

onto the next

generations

that we're not totally

ashamed of

it's put the automotive

industry

on a path

towards a cleaner,

electric,

future

and we're not going back

that concludes

dieselgate 10

thanks for listening

I'll see you on the next one

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