EVs can lose a lot of their price quickly, especially when newer models come out. This means if you buy one and then sell it later, you might get back less money than you paid.
O.T.D. means "out‑the‑door" price – the full amount you pay, including taxes and fees, to get the car out of the dealership. It’s what you actually spend when buying a car.
A 5‑year/60,000‑mile warranty means the manufacturer will fix any factory problems for five years or until you hit 60,000 miles, whichever comes first. It’s a basic protection plan for new cars.
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Let's start. It is noon here in the Center City, New Jersey, and it's windy as hell. And this is Washington DC. That's right, our nation's capital. And this is Carr and Slime for Friday, December 19th, with your host, me, Ray, here in Windy as hell event are exactly in his living room yet again. How are you today, handsome? And that was probably the strangest opening ever through this show.
Yeah, you know, it's all get there dead. You're not warmed up. Let's just leave it at that. You're not warmed up. It's Friday. It's been a long week. But folks, we are thrilled to be back with you here again for another episode of Carr Edge Live. We do have a sponsor to today's program. Our friends over at Deletney, so we'll be talking about them in just a little bit. But before that, CarrEdge.com. It is six years to the day almost that we made our first ever YouTube video. Thank you to everyone who has joined us on this journey. CarrEdge.com is where my dad provide.
My dad and I provide products and services to help you buy a car. I will continue to mention all week long. Click on insurance back on the website as well. It doesn't cost you any money. Compare your auto insurance. That's the way to save. And right now we're seeing a lot of people get their auto insurance premiums jacked up. This is a way to save. Please go to the website and check that out. We've got more information about the buying service as well as CarrEdge.com as well. Dad, the big story this morning, we talked about it just a little bit yesterday. We're going to talk about the used car market. But in particular, CarrFax came out with
some staggering new data about odometer rollbacks. Dad, we saw a 14% increase in odometer rollbacks year over year. Our friends over at CarrFax are reporting. There is so much potential fraud and buying a used car in general is fraught with opportunities to get taken advantage of. This is this is concerning. Man, this is shocking to see this many used vehicles 2.45 million of them having their odometer's rollback. What does this mean? And why is this an issue?
Well, what it means is that in many, many cases, obviously not all cases, but in many, many cases, people were buying cars with actually more miles on them than what they think.
And when that happens, usually you're paying much more for a car with lower miles than what the actual value of that car would be with its actual miles.
So yes, it's fraud. Yes, people are being taken advantage of. Yes, if the car has more miles on it than you thought, there could be any number of other issues that come up because, well, parts wear out, things are going to break down sooner that you wouldn't have expected if it actually had the mileage that it showed on the odometer as opposed to the actual miles that had been driven.
So obviously, it's not when people, it's not like people are doing odometer fraud in the opposite direction. They are taking vehicles that have more miles on them and then presenting them with fewer miles.
They're not doing the opposite. They're not saying, oh, it's got less miles. I'm going to add more on. That's not necessarily their objective here.
And dad, let's talk about this for a second. A 14% increase. Why are we seeing more of this? Like you mentioned it a bit yesterday.
More and more odometers are digital clusters. They're not a mechanical league. Shouldn't that make it harder for this to happen?
Apparently not. I thought it would, but apparently it's relatively easy to make adjustments or to just replace an entire cluster altogether.
And if the cluster you're borrowing has, I don't know, 60, 70, 80,000 miles less showing on it than what's actually on your car.
Well, yeah, it becomes an issue. And why do people do that? Because they want to get more for their trade in than what it's worth, especially if they are the proud owners of negative equity.
So one way to cut back on negative equity is well, they cut down on the miles that your odometer shows. So your car's worth more rather than less.
You've got here, dad, car facts breaking us down by which states have the most vehicles impacted by odometer rollback fraud. And this is, this is alarming.
And we'll start the bottom right, North Carolina, 59,000 vehicles impacted Arizona, 69,000 vehicles, Virginia, 74,000 Georgia, almost 77 Pennsylvania, 77.
Your top five that in Illinois, 92,500 vehicles have had their odometers rolled back New York state, 104,000 Florida, 109,000, the big jump here.
333,000, geez, I almost put that, 333,900 in Texas. And then 532,200 in California. And car facts even shares here, dad. I think it's right here. Where is it? Where is it?
Car facts data shows vehicles with an odometer rollback averaged a loss of around $3,300 in value. That is, that's a lot of money.
Yeah, isn't that isn't that a lot of money to recoup the if if you're the person that that has say 180,000 miles on your car, but suddenly you now have a odometer that reflects 80,000.
Yeah, would, would that be a financial enough reward for somebody to want to commit that type of fraud. Apparently so, it is, it is, it is a sad reminder of who we are and how we operate as people.
It is, it is, we are much more creative to figure out ways to commit fraud than we are when it comes to figuring out ways just to be honest and transparent.
So one only thing I really want to dive into here, I'm going to scroll back up and I'll share it on the screen. This surprise me, this is the shocking part.
The car facts have been doing this report annually for a while now, a 14% increase year over year in this most recent year to put that in perspective in 2003 and 2004 car facts saw a 4% increase year over year, that why now you mentioned in a moment ago maybe it has something to do with negative equity that people are so upside down on their car loans that they're looking for ways to make their vehicles worth more.
So obviously saying it has fewer miles on is one way to do that, but that is a staggering, I mean, again, just looking at the numbers, that's a 3 x increase from 4% year over year to 14%.
That's more than three times the level of increase that we've seen that surprised me when I read through this that that took me that took me by surprise.
I honestly believe it is because people have have spent more for older cars than they've ever had to with higher miles than they ever have to and in order to make it more palatable if they're trying to get out of it and people have financed these older cars for longer terms than they ever have had to in the past.
So that how do you mitigate all that? Well, if if you're buried in your trade because of all those things, then perhaps the out to you looks like, well, if the car had 80, 90, 100,000 miles less on it, that would help the compensate for some of the negative equity, it would cut down the amount of negative equity.
So listen, I spend 43 years in the automobile business. There are con artists that sell cars on a retail basis, and there are con artists from the customer that sell cars as traded.
And what do I mean by that? Well, let's say somebody knows that their vehicle has a transmission problem, and let's say in the old days, one of the ways that they could mitigate a transmission problem was that a little sawdust.
And so it would seem to shift okay for a relatively short period of time long enough to get it appraised and not have the appraiser realize that it was going to need a transmission.
So there are con artists both on the customer side of things and on the dealership side of things.
And people want to mitigate whatever losses they might have, and sometimes they want to do it in such a manner where they're actually breaking the law.
And what you see here, dad, from car facts, I think, again, is so surprising because the mind due to scale with which it increased and also the fact that it's interrelated most likely with negative equity, repossessions, loan delinquencies, things like that.
Let's switch gears for a moment here and then holy cow, do we have a lot more to cover on today's show, but we first need to thank the sponsor of today's program, our friends over at delete me now many of you know that there are data brokers out there selling our information online and anyone can buy it.
Things like your phone numbers, social security number, home address and more are sold online and pops available to marketers, scammers, and everyone in between whoever those people may be.
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I see some people asking about car insurance over in the chat again, I just want to remind everyone back at car edge dot com.
It's like on insurance up there, don't look at anything else, just click on insurance and shop your dog on insurance every single quarter, you should be doing that to save money.
I did the other stories I want to bring up today one has to do with market share we've got some new data from Cox Automotive on the new car side of things and car dealership guy compiled this and shared it only five brands are growing their market share in 2025.
You can see here, dad market share your over your change of market shares, the yellow line on this chart general Motors market share increased Toyota market share increased board market share increased Hyundai market share increased and BMW down here their market share increased every other manufacturer has actually seen their market share decrease and look at Stalantis and Volkswagen.
They're struggling mightily are you surprised by any of the results here.
Year over year for 2025 sales performance well obviously Toyota doesn't surprise me the one the one that really surprises me and I know people will get mad at me for saying this but it's it's for there is.
I just and I know there are there are people in the comments who will say yeah but Ford is at least admitting there's a problem and they're taking care of it where there's other manufacturers that don't want to admit that they have a problem or take care of it but Ford has had.
I don't know we haven't checked recently but I think the last time we checked it was 138 recalls for the we're going to we're going to do a check today and it has gone up so stay tuned for that.
So and and the previous record for any manufacturer and for the number of recalls in the given year was 69 by general Motors at one time and so I just I just don't understand how a brand that has as many service issues and recall issues as Ford has.
See market share go I mean who in the right mind says.
I want to buy something that I know is going to spend a lot more time at the dealership than say it the competitive brand I mean what do you do that I don't I just don't understand the concept of that so that one surprises me.
And and to a degree I'm surprised that there's only five brands that have have seen market share game and and BMW's market share game was minimal at desk but then again it is a it is a luxury brand.
That if I were the other manufacturers I would be extremely concerned and start looking at ways where I could try and gain back some of that market share that I've lost.
And I don't know if I was a competitor or for it I I would probably and I don't know all my marketing would be based on the higher quality of my product and some of the other domestic products that are available in this country.
It really does that actually it's some of the comments here I'll scroll down surprise to see that Ford and GM are doing that well for doesn't even have a car to sell I think that comment is kind of in in part because of all the the recalls in stop sales and things like that.
Primarily stop sales a bit more on the Lincoln side but there have been stop sales this year on the forward side to so yeah these are your brands that have seen growth.
Hyundai's not surprising to see on the list Toyota's not surprising to see on the list everything else is a little bit surprising.
I think it's quite shocking that Nissan continues to go in the wrong direction all things considered you can get Nissan's for a veritable bargain compared to their peers.
But now let's switch gears actually very quickly here Ford let's get the recall guesses how many I hate that this is a game it does not sit well with me that this is a game that we get to play how many recalls do you think Ford is at.
Year to date and to be clear here you all the previous record for a full calendar year for an automaker recalls total recalls with 69 back in that many years ago from General Motors Ford passed that.
Months ago that what number of recalls do you think Ford is currently at and which I'm going to ask us follow a question which vehicle do you think out the most recent recall.
Oh my goodness well I'm going to guess they're up to 142 okay I could be wrong and I guess my guess for the recall the latest victim I'm going to say the Bronco.
Okay so we've got 142 and the Bronco drumroll please let's get some guesses in the chat 161 we've got 142 160.
148 and the F150 you ready for this step yeah and all right we are at 145 recalls.
We're talking about nearly three a week right they're 52 we're okay we're through 50 weeks so at three a week that would be 150 oh my god they're not to step it up from the last two weeks in the year ladies and just I mean we are talking nearly three recalls a week for their products.
And I am not buying the theory for an instant oh well they're just so concerned about their customers that they're just stepping up to the plate and taking care of it trust me if the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration didn't make them step up they wouldn't volunteer to step up that's in my opinion.
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Alright you ready do you have any guesses you said it was for the bronco correct yes that was my guess hate to disappoint let's see if there are any other guesses from the community here we had someone saying about the F-150 alright you ready yeah.
Alright dad we've got Ford recalling 273,000 vehicles this morning.
This morning and these are your 20 22 to 20 26 F-150 lifeings.
These are your 24 to 20 26 makis and these are your 25 and 26 mavericks.
And the issue to be clear here is the parking function that could cause the car to roll away.
Well in the case of the lightning that could possibly be the best thing that ever happened.
You know in the sense that it it rolls out of your driveway down a hill crashes and your and your insurance company has to make you all I mean what what could be better.
So you know you have to look on the bright side of some of this stuff.
It could roll away good.
Provided you have doubt coverage yes yes provided you have gap for those of you for those of you that want some more context for my dad is saying that is because the F-150 lightning and electric vehicles in general depreciate rapidly.
And so many people that own the F-150 lightning or the Machi or other EVs and bought them brand new well those vehicles typically are worth a lot less than what those customers owe on their auto loan.
Yeah and I guess the good news for Ford is as we know they've decided to pull the plug on the lightning so they won't be making that anymore.
So they won't have to worry about that future lightings are rolling away.
Yeah it is it's just.
It's mind boggling to me.
Yeah it really really is dad it's absolutely crazy and they've got these other recalls that are going on right now too I mean there was another one where at high speeds parts could come up a vehicle so this has been you know it's been fun speed I mean is it like 100 miles an hour 120 miles an hour 200 miles an hour where is it like I don't know 60 65 miles an hour.
I hear you dad we're all right let's let's switch gears once again it is a Friday and that means one thing and one thing only we have a community forum y'all so I encourage everyone to check out our community forum it is car edge dot com slash community and every single Friday we do a question and answer thank you to space who runs our community forum we appreciate all that he does just a couple questions today daddy ready to jump into it sure why not.
From a Ralph thank you for this what's the fair O.T.D. Price for this vehicle there are two discounts available one from the dealer for a thousand and customer cash for 1500 bucks well dad while I grab this been pulled up on the car edge website can you explain why they are actually more than two discounts available or how the two discounts are not mutually exclusive at least.
Oh they are not mutually exclusive at all as a matter of fact they they very well can and will be combined so that without the dealer discounting the vehicle a dime you could get $2,500 off and you have an impact at the the profit margin that's actually built into the car if if the dealer just gives you the thousand dollar customer cash and applies the $1,500 dealer cash.
So what that means to me is I don't know what are we looking at three thousand thirty five hundred dollars off the car when you include the dealer discount off of the MSRP that could be quite the quite the deal on a on a Mazda three hatchback which is if I'm not mistaken relatively inexpensive to begin with.
Yeah dad here I've got it pulled up back on the car edge car search for those of you that are unfamiliar we have a VIN search so anytime you find a vehicle regardless of where it is on the interwebs you can go to car edge dot com click on VIN enter it right there and hit that little button and it will pull up the page and on this page dad we have all of our market intelligence to the dealer MSRP to the MSRP is thirty three thousand six hundred and thirty dollars the seller price this is what the dealers advertising it for is thirty one thousand one hundred ninety one dollars we know invoice cost on this vehicle thirty two thousand dollars.
On this vehicle thirty two thousand seven hundred eighty nine dollars and car edge is saying the target discount range is anywhere between eighteen hundred and twenty seven hundred dollars what I'm interested in that the market insights here I'm curious yeah if it was going to be green yellow red and looks like it's yellow so we have moderate leverage let's see here.
We've got seventy eight seventy nine days on the lot so they've been sitting on it for a minute this is interesting because it's a new twenty twenty six years we actually don't have any that have recently sold.
The twenty five I'm sure we have tons that have recently sold this brand new model here so that's going to influence how likely the dealer is to negotiate as well and I'm going to jump all the way down to incentives seventy nine days on lock that's yes yeah so the fact that it's already been sitting there for seventy nine days we're thinking hey that influences influences they're thinking sure yeah yeah okay well I appreciate you sharing that answer for Ralph and again space here saying to me form twenty four seven we are there to review deals offer discount targets provide data and help.
With leases love that again to hundred percent freight car edge dot com slash community thank you space for all that you do over there to help our community members amongst so many more eager to hear in the chat I know you help.
Tons of people over there too from it braiden we've got a vine here what is a great O.T.D. price for this vehicle knowing it as four owners in an accident including minor roof front and rear damage dealer once twenty seven thousand including a five year sixty thousand dollar warranty.
This deal seems like it sucks in the warranty seems too short to be useful space here thank you space for pulling so the twenty nineteen Lincoln Nautilus.
We've got the accidents we've got for previous owners.
We've got the damage I'll run this over on car edge dad but what are your initial thoughts from braiden's question here.
How many miles are on this thing it looks like forty nine thousand but bear with me for a second I would hold up here.
Yeah and then and roof damage how does one get roof damage was it was we've got forty nine thousand miles on it.
Okay was it hail damage did it roll over I you know the car facts report indicates what that it's moderate it was moderate damage yep well four owners scares me on a on what is a six year old vehicle.
The body work scares me the fact that it was involved in at least one accident.
So twenty you know in a warranty a five year sixty thousand mile warranty is that from the date you buy it or is.
It it seems to me and and I'm not I'm not involved that closely anymore in in valuations of vehicles but with four previous owners and an accident.
It's it it should probably be around ninety percent of whatever MMR is or or eighty five percent of MMR because it's just too many owners for a six year old car.
Why is everybody getting rid of the damn thing that's the question you're asking right.
Absolutely that's the first question I'm asking you know I mean you can look at the car facts and it'll tell you how long each owner had it.
And and so that would that would you know like if somebody only had it like ten or eleven months well why do you think that would be.
Why do you think they got rid of it because they had nothing but problems with it so that that vehicle just that.
It itself would scare the hell out.
Yeah we've got here from space one one fours the NMR so again let's pull back up.
This particular vehicle the dealers asking.
So ten percent off of twenty one four would be it's called what twenty two hundred hours off.
Yeah so now you're down to around nineteen grand plus fees.
And I like this comment from Mr. C. Northeast that is this is one vehicle I'd walk away from immediately I kind of get in the sense that you're thinking similarly like just do a different one just look find a different vehicle.
Yeah and if there is twenty seven thousand dollars out the door that that that seems like a a poop ton of money for a vehicle that nobody's wanted to hold on to for an extended period of time.
Yeah again we're at twenty seven thousand dollars out the door on a vehicle that we're sitting here saying is probably worth nineteen.
Yes so with and if you figure fees are about ten percent so that means you'd be up to about twenty one twenty one and a half out the door if you could buy it for nineteen thousand dollars.
So it seems to me that were at least fifty five hundred to six thousand dollars away from a reasonable deal for a vehicle that has had four owners and an accident in the first six years of its forty nine thousand mile life.
That thing's been through some stuff that let's come here from Robert thank you for this Robert when researching the trade in price on Edmonds of a used car dealer has for sale.
What is the likelihood they paid that amount for the trade in okay so when researching the trade in price on Edmonds of a used car the dealer has okay so we're saying we've got a vehicle we're interested in buying a used vehicle we're interested in buying.
And we're plugging it in on Edmonds to see what CarMax would pay to buy it what's the likely.
I say CarMax dad because Edmonds is owned by CarMax and that's okay now you get over on Edmonds as a CarMax.
Well here's my answer when researching the trade in what of a user what is the likelihood the dealer paid that amount for zero.
Okay zero it's less the dealer will have paid less so yeah those those numbers are wonderful numbers but typically dealers will pay less than than what Edmonds would suggest or others might suggest.
Most dealers are going to utilize the auto which is a tool that dealerships use to help them establish values of pre-owned cars and they are going to look at a man high market reports to see what a vehicle has been actually selling for the auctions so yeah zero.
No chance no chance this dealers are dog on good dad at buying low and selling high the trade in value that you're going to see is you're going to be significantly higher than what they're going to want to get their hands on.
The dealers that have a short lifespan are really good at buying high and selling low and because they've made mistakes and most use car dealers are not going to be making those mistakes.
Yeah or if they do they're not going to be in business all that long that a friendly reminder to everyone here car edge dot com that's the sponsor of today's program in addition to our friends over at delete me a friendly reminder we have $150 off our car buying service right now.
We continue to run this promotion because we know many people are in the market to buy a car before the end of the year the perks of our car buying service are very very very simple.
You get matched with the concierge they do the work you get the keys you can get a free consultation call with our team to learn more and see if this is a good fit and you can meet the concierge is who work on your behalf down below on the page I encourage you to take a moment.
Click into some of these learn more about our incredible team and the work that they are doing to support our customers we are really proud of what we built here at car edge and I encourage everyone to vet and really consider this option if they're in the market to buy a car.
Car edge pro is also 15% off for the time being this is going to give you all the data that we've been referencing on the show today as well as the AI agent that we've been talking about.
For weeks here that's going to actually reach out to dealerships and get OTT pricing on your behalf an example of that here I'm going to go to one of these deals that I've got from the past that this was a dodged a ringo that we had reached out to a dealership on.
We got a bunch of different proposals from them the first proposal from this dealership drum roll please.
43,782 dollars well my AI agent went back and forth with the dealership on my behalf got the price down to 42,000 dollars I didn't even have to lift a finger so please folks use our tools use our resources and at a minimum go over to the community form and watch the youtube videos to make sure if you're going to buy a car anytime soon you don't get screwed.
We're host or host manage of we're taking advantage of.
Yeah yeah and and remember that one of our favorite things is knowledge is power which is an absolute why it's applied knowledge that is power if we share the knowledge with you and you don't apply it there's no power in that so.
Study up learn and then apply what it is that you've learned and you will make out better than the average bear when it comes to buying a car.
Absolutely so dad next week holiday week we've got Christmas on Christmas Thursday it'll be interesting so we're not going to do a show on Thursday right I can't imagine we're doing.
I mean I'm not doing it I'm not doing anything you want to I whatever we're going to figure out our plan for next week but I would love to help people with car deals next week dad like really getting nitty-gritty in the weeds because we know so many people right now are making their transactions before the end of the year.
I'm just like planting a seed with you I would love to spend as much time actually helping people get car deals done next week less news more car deals how's that sound.
Yes or a combination of the two plus plus as a as a reminder to you and first news for the audience will be holding our annual.
Yes fundraiser on Saturday evening December 27th yes from I think seven to nine thirty seven p.m. to nine thirty you think we're going to make it two and a half hours.
No but that's the amount of time you book for on my schedule so.
Yeah we're going to be doing our annual fundraiser this year will be in benefit of lung cancer foundation of America the organization that I am so humbled and probably a board member of in the past and for Massachusetts general hospital that's where my mom.
Pass away but anyway we will make you all aware of that a lot extra don't worry let us know in the comments do you want us to be focused on deal making next week I think that could be really really fun and like we said a moment ago the community form a hundred percent free please spend some time over there making informed decision before you buy a car and the final final word.
May I just say you may I just say the greatest gift that carage ever came up with in my humble opinion is the community for yeah and it is just littered with people who are in the same situation is everybody else trying to figure out how to get the best possible deal they can and trying to figure out that the deals that they've been offered are they good better and different.
And everybody's on there helping each other so it is in my opinion the most wonderful thing that we have concocted in the six years that we've been doing this nonsense do you want to see something crazy that i'm working on.
Sure say yes everybody say yes everybody because I create a community form I think is one of if not the best things that we have created.
I think another thing that i'm working on this is not ready for prime time at all so you can't access it but these are we but so we've got this in the safe this really quickly so we've got an O.T.D. or maybe you've got like a sales contract from a dealership something i'm working on this again is not ready you can't access it is a little AI overview like you upload a contract or upload an O.T.D.
into the actually analyze that and start to call out things that it thinks are interesting so let's take a quick peek at what it does for this one.
And this will work to be clear for like a full contract as well so the actual full contract as well as an Alpador price quote but let's see what it does this is a classic alive test.
We're we're waiting and apparently we're all okay three issues look at that all right so the sales price is forty thousand three hundred forty two dollars on a vehicle is at forty four thousand.
The dealer added accessories are fifty one hundred no APR is shown on the form and a seventy two month payment of eight hundred and fourteen dollars is listed key concerns.
The doc fee the add-ons no APR interest rate is printed on the contract risk assume low if you're paying cash or they will supply a rate later.
They've got an Allen for three hundred ninety five dollars that seems like a fair price it's saying medium range for the doc fee.
Nothing about warranty price versus MSRP this is interesting I mean I don't know if it's like the best in the world yet we've got a lot more work to do but I don't know kind of a cool tool
that we're working on.
It's because you're a cool dude.
Curious if there's feedback and things like that in the chat but dad let's do it all again on Monday enjoy the upcoming weekend.
I love you very much and can't wait to be back here next week.
You know I feel very highly about you as well you know that and yes have a great weekend everybody and we'll see you on Monday
and remember tell a friend to tell a friend to tell a friend and have everybody to name it noon eastern for more valuable information.
Indulgent holiday cravings with the nutrition you need from Kachava's all in one whole body shake.
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Holiday nutrition has never been this easy or delicious.
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About this episode
A recent report from CarFax reveals a shocking 14% year-over-year increase in odometer rollback fraud, with over 2.45 million vehicles affected. The hosts discuss the implications of this fraud, particularly how it can lead buyers to pay more for cars with higher mileage than advertised. They also delve into the reasons behind this rise, including negative equity and the prevalence of digital odometers. Additionally, the episode touches on market share trends among automakers and a significant number of recalls from Ford, raising concerns about vehicle reliability.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data from CarFax and it is SHOCKING! Tune in to learn more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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