A 72‑month loan means you pay for the car in six yearly installments. It makes each month even cheaper, but you might owe more than the car is worth if you sell early.
If you owe more money on your car than it’s worth, that’s called negative equity. It can make selling or trading in the car difficult because you still owe money.
Affordability means the car costs a reasonable amount for you, so you can buy it without borrowing too much money or paying too high of a monthly bill.
Days supply tells you how long it would take to sell all the cars a dealer has if sales stayed at the current rate. Fewer days means cars are selling fast and prices may stay high.
If you know how many cars are on the lot and how long they’ve been there, you can use that info to ask for a better price. More cars or longer wait times give you more power.
When cars are shipped from one place to another, the company that holds them at a port may charge extra money for keeping the cars there. This extra cost is called a dock fee, and it can be different in each area.
These reviews are done on a race track, so they show how the car behaves when pushed hard, like in real driving or racing.
LIVE
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In summa reviews, and be sure to check out all the special offers, tire rack.com, the way tire buying should be.
It's noon here in Mentor City, New Jersey, and our nation's capital, Washington, D.C. And this is Courage Live for Tuesday, December 23rd, with your hosts, me, Ray, here in Mentor, and Zach, making it just in the nick of time. And it doesn't appear as if you did anything for your lighting.
The left side of your face is kind of in the shade, and the right side of your face looks like you could get a good tan. How are you today?
Do a mode's gloomy here in D.C., so that's why the lighting's a little off. I'm taking today's show from home, because you know what, Dad, we're two days away from the Christmas holiday. So excited for everyone to celebrate on Thursday. Before you celebrate, a friend of mine or folks, we've got a promotion running back at caredge.com. Today's the last day that we're offering $150 off our car buying service.
And 15% off car edge pro our friends over at fair are still doing $150 off on the warranty side of things as well. And again, a friendly reminder, we offer a car buying service.
We will research contact dealers and even negotiate for you. So please folks take advantage of what we have to offer back at caredge.com.
Now, Dad, the beginning of today's show, we're going to be talking about Carvana, because Carvana has done a few things recently that I think are really leading indicators for what's going on in the auto industry.
First and foremost, Dad, we're going to talk about used car prices. I posted this over on X just a bit earlier. We know used car vehicle inventory news vehicle inventory.
Excuse me, has hit a record hide for 2025. This data comes from Cox Automotive. And it shows very clearly that we have the highest level of used car inventory that we've had all year at the same exact time you sent me this first to Ford expedition that I wanted to pull up.
We're seeing big drop-offs. This case, $2,000 or a 5.4% decrease on a Ford expedition offer from CarMax or Dad, your old mini has in a month seen its value go down by $2,600, almost 12%.
We are seeing a precipitous decline in used vehicle values. And I wanted to talk about that this morning. Carvana to a degree that I think is the leading indicator here of some weakness in terms of used vehicle price.
It could be or maybe they've realized they've grossly overpaid for a lot of their inventory in the past, not that it has impacted their profits based on their financial recordings.
Leave that alone for a second. Let's just because I've got a way I'm going to navigate. I've got a way that I'm going to try and navigate this pops just on the used car price part. Is this surprising to you?
Well, to suggest to you that when I sent that to yesterday that I was shocked to see that. Yeah, I was shocked.
So it went down almost 12% in 30 days. That's a tad bit more than the decline in values that we've been seeing as reported by Black Book on a weekly basis of the auctions.
So yeah, I was shocked.
All right, so we've got one first time in my life, by the way.
So we've got one piece of this, which is Carvana again, kind of like the leading indicator for what could be going on in the used car market.
And then Dad, you just brought up the other point, which is they're making more money than ever before, but I do want to tie in some really interesting dynamics in this.
So car dealership guy posting about the fact that car max and Carvana, you know, they hope close to three and a half percent of all use car sales go through car max and Carvana.
But the way that Carvana and Carmax and all these use car dealers make a lot of money is on the originations of loads of auto finance loans.
Now, you can see here the slope of the Carvana line on the right is very steep and up to the right.
And on the left, this is Carmax. It's much more plateaued.
Now, this is interesting, Dad, because there is a new article that just came out on the Wall Street Journal this morning.
I don't know if you got a chance to see it, but its title is this car payments now average more than $750 a month enter the 100 month car loan era.
Yeah, so Dad, Carvana is shocking the auto industry in two ways this morning.
One is simply on price. They are the leading indicator. They move the fastest when it comes to changing what price they're willing to pay for vehicles.
And you said it yourself, you were shocked when you got that latest email from them.
And it ties into all the data we have about use vehicle inventory being the highest it's been all year.
That's point number one. We'll discuss it even more in today's show point number two is they make most all of their money and their value as much as they are because they originate auto loans.
It's the safe exact day that we get the headline again in this is in Wall Street Journal car payments now average more than $750 a month enter the 100 month car loan.
And what do you make of that pops the 100 month car loan and Carvana's glorious rise has a hundred almost $100 billion company right now.
Well, you know, we have discussed many times on the show that one way to seem to make vehicles more affordable.
And the key word here is seems to or the key two words seems to is to extend the loan the loan term when I first broke into the business.
You know, and Fred Flintstone came in to buy his first car for me.
It was not uncommon for car loans to be no more than 24 months.
24 is that what you just said.
Yeah, two years 20 24 months.
And I don't like where this is going dad.
Yeah, and on a push on a push.
Maybe you would do 30 or 36 months long.
Okay.
And then then it became you know 48 became the standard 48 months.
And as prices continue to rise, we saw 60 month loans become the standard.
And over the last I don't know two dozen years.
We've seen 72 month loans.
That's that's that's like an average loan length these days.
And in order to make things seem more affordable, we started to see 80 84 months and 96 month loans being utilized.
And so yeah, the next step is I don't know what's that 110 months or 108 months.
It is it is committing financial suicide for people when they do this.
Because the amount of interest that they end up paying because of those extra 12 months or 24 months is astronomical.
You could there was that example a couple of weeks ago, somebody that bought allegedly purchased a ram pickup truck.
And their payment was almost $1900 a month for 84 months.
And that $100,000 pickup truck when they were done if they paid every payment.
That $100,000 pickup truck was going to ultimately cost them $150,000.
All that extra interest.
How do you spend $150,000 for something that at the end of the loan, you know, maybe it'll be worth 10 grand or 15 grand.
I mean, it's lunacy.
And yet banks are encouraging it.
Obviously dealerships are encouraging it.
The sad reality is the customers are accepting it.
See, this is the Carvana angle to a T data.
Again, we go back to this chart with this chart is showing you is used vehicle loan originations.
And on the left is the car max chart.
And on the right is the Carvana chart.
They share the same exact Y and X axis.
So there's no distortion here.
You can see Carvana is placing a significantly greater number or faster growing number of loans and originations.
And so you tie that in with what you just said, which is banks and dealerships and everyone involved in this bracket are proving longer and longer loan terms to get people into these vehicles.
It does not make them more affordable.
The interesting dynamic in today's conversation, however, would be you could make a case that what we're starting to see from both Carvana,
the lackbook from the Cox Automotive data that shows that we have the highest level of used vehicle inventory all year long.
You can make a case that used car prices should come down and are actively coming down, which does mean and should mean that used vehicles become more affordable for people, which does mean and should mean they should not be as reliant on a hundred month car loan to get into that used car.
But at the same breath or in the same breath, you have a hundred month car loads becoming more and more of a reality.
The data comes from experience and there's just a larger and larger proportion of consumers extending the term out well beyond 72 months into that, you know, eight, nine, 10 year range, which is absurdity, absolute absurdity and seemingly insanely profitable.
Carvana is almost a hundred billion dollar company this morning.
Well, 100 billion.
I heard you.
Carvana.
Here's here's what people forget or don't realize about Carvana.
They're a loan origination company.
That's what they want to be, okay, because that's where they make their money and and the vehicle that they use for loan originations is the sale of automobiles.
Okay, so the only reason that they are in the automobile business at all is to sell you a loan.
We know when you go to the Carvana website that you don't even have to make a hundred dollars a week to qualify for a loan at Carvana.
You have to make five a minimum of five thousand dollars a year.
Five thousand dollars a year will feed you, let alone allow you to buy a car and make a payment on it.
It is so the whole concept of Carvana is just loan originations.
That's the business they want to be in and you know we we talked last week or the week before about tri color and the fraud that they were involved in.
Now, I'm not going to sit here and suggest that that Carvana might be involved in any type of fraud, but it seems to me that if you're lending guidelines are such that if you make five thousand dollars a year, you can qualify for a car loan.
There's going to be some issues with some of those car loans or a lot of those car loans, but their whole concept is to create the car loan, package all those car loans and sell them as asset back securities and let them become somebody else's problem when a greater percentage of those loans goes bad.
Now, if I may, Dad, it's not just the Carvana business model, it is the business model of being in vehicle sales.
This is what's becoming so clear with Carvana's success is the fact that they have perfected the ability to run this playbook.
This is also how your local mom and pop dealership makes money.
We've talked about it ad nauseam for years, buy rate versus sell rate, things like that.
They've just figured out how to scale this thing like crazy and the thing that brings me concern amongst all of this is the reality that it is becoming normalized and it's becoming accepted to have a hundred month car load.
That is a precedent that is going to set up a lot of people for financial harm down the line just because the bank you've always said this just because the bank approves you for the loan does not mean you should take it on.
There's a lot of individual financial responsibility that needs to happen when buying a vehicle in this Carvana news.
The fact that they are obviously outpacing Carmax, the other major player, it's because they're really good at approving auto loans and getting people into cars just because that's the case doesn't mean you actually should do it.
One of the great lines that finance managers would use in order to convince people that it was okay for them to sign for that loan at that payment was, you don't think the bank would have approved you for this loan and this payment if they didn't have faith in you being able to pay it back.
Yeah, I guess you're right. If they if they're convinced I can then I guess I can and in many cases, you know, you can't but you're going to enter into it anyway.
It is another example of the lack of financial understanding or the lack of financial education for a vast majority of Americans who just don't understand the concept of credit and interest and the amount of interest.
I mean, look at the mortgages on homes, you know, you buy it, you buy a half a million dollar home and you take a 30 year note and you pay back.
I don't know a million to for for that half a million dollar house, so the amount of interest is astronomical and people need to understand that before they sign on the dotted line.
A lot of this is yes, it's the greed of the companies involved, but it is the ignorance of the consumers that are involved that just go along with it.
We need to we need to educate people better. We need to have people understand the dynamics of this better before they before they affixed their name on the dotted line.
Again, a friend of the reminder folks me my dad for the past six years have been helping people make smart car buying decisions, our website, our company, our incredible team car edge dot com now that another factor in all of this would be negative equity.
And so we have data this game from Q three from Edmonds, let's just look at some of this information here while negative equity sharing the third quarter of 2025 was high for recent years, the percentage of upside down new vehicle buyers consistently tracked.
More than 30% in 2015 through 2021, so we are actually when you look at this chart here, the percentage of trade ins that have negative equity.
This gold line tells you the percentage that have negative equity and it's actually not as high as it had been pre pandemic, you can see back in Q two of 2020 37% of people who traded in a vehicle had negative equity now that obviously plummeted during the pandemic and has used vehicle values skyrocketed for many years.
But this teal line or this blue line, that is how much people are upside down on their auto loans, we have never seen values this high you are at almost $7,000 upside down on your auto loan and I think something that's important to understand is that when you take out a hundred month car note, you are pretty much citing up in perpetuity for negative equity, you're not making a lot of payments to pay down principle, you're paying a ton of interest.
Obviously the vehicle's value is going to decrease over time.
It's a special Christmas edition of Thursday night football and it's only on prime video tonight, the Denver Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas night, kept off your holiday with an old school rivalry for the Kansas City Chiefs on the defensive side, can they create enough pressure to upset this really good Denver offense.
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Alright people serious question time did you know that driving high is considered driving under the influence that's right driving under the influence of marijuana is against the law in every state that means even in states where marijuana is legal.
That means driving high could get you a DUI and if you think law enforcement officers can't tell when you're driving high well you're wrong if you're high they can tell your friends can tell your co workers can tell even your parents can tell everyone can tell.
So what makes you think that law enforcement officers don't know when you're driving high you'd be wrong they can tell to driving under the influence of marijuana can slow your response time and change how you perceive time and speed.
So even if you think you're fine to drive when you're high you're not because the bottom line is if you feel different you drive different and driving high is driving under the influence.
So remember drive high get a DUI paid for by NHTSA.
This isn't just a game it's a once in a generation event the Harlem Globetrotters 100 year tour celebrate 100 years of high flying dunks 100 years of showstopping moves and 100 years of changing the game bring the whole family and be part of the legacy this game is once in a century.
Be there at Motor Center on January 24th go to Harlem Globetrotters.com for your tickets to the 100 year tour.
The reality is if you enter into a hundred and month note for a car you probably have to make 88 to 90 payments before you're at a break even or perhaps a slight positive equity position.
So you know for the for the next seven and a half years you are the proud possessor of negative equity there's nothing positive about negative equity folks.
It is it is not something that's going to help you during the course of your time on earth here it only helps the bank and the lending institution.
It's a funny way to phrase it verb.
It's the way I see things what can I tell you.
You're so right there dad I mean carrying that burden you're going to have to step up and either bring cash when you go to buy your next vehicle or you're going to not buy a next vehicle because you're going to be paying off this thing for those 88 to 90 months.
Either way guys the Carvana story this morning will switch off of it and talk a little bit about the new car market because there's an interesting article in automotive news about that.
The Carvana story this morning is very simple the values that they're placing on people's trade-ins are going down significantly at least for the subset of vehicles that we have access to we know that used vehicle inventory is the highest it's been all year long.
This is kind of a great moment if you've been thinking about buying a used heart you have a negotiability it's a bit of a buyer's market we've been talking all year long about how it's been trending in that direction but it really is there there right now.
The other story when it comes to Carvana is loan originations and it was just such fascinating timing that this morning the Wall Street Journal came out with their car payments now average more than $750 a month enter the era of the 100 month car alone just a crazy headline for the Wall Street Journal to publish but obviously fact-based and true.
The sad reality is that we could be entering the era of the 100 month car loan while we're in an era where cars won't quite last 100 months because of some of the quality of the parts that gets to be used because they're trying to keep the prices down so it is.
It is it is really an untenable situation for a lot of people who if they enter into a 90 96 or 108 month loan term when they start having issues with the vehicle at 70 months or 75 months or 60 whatever it is and they're out of warranty and they have to come out of pocket to pay for the maintenance and the repair.
This and the repairs that's going to be necessary on vehicles who many will suggest are designed to fail much sooner than those loans would actually come do so you are by doing that you you are just committing financial suicide and and I hate to say it but it probably be much better off just using lift or Uber.
To get anywhere you need to go rather if you don't have public transportation available rather than consign yourself to 100 plus month car note.
Yeah I think I think this story today really is a forcing function to look in the mirror and say can I afford to buy that vehicle and if I can only afford it and I need a 100 month car note then the answer is no I can't actually afford it and I need to look at something cheaper.
That Wall Street Journal article was actually great that it talks about how Ford has seen Maverick sales skyrocket and demand for the Maverick is through the roof no wonder relatively inexpensive.
Exactly so it's like and we saw Jeep recently come out and say hey we actually you know sorry you know our bad we raise the prices too much we're going to bring things back and they're going to be cheaper.
So we are seeing you know the movement the motion back towards affordability but you and I both know it doesn't happen overnight and this key story that we're about to look at here.
The manufacturers produced a lot of high content very expensive vehicles those dealers have that inventory right now sitting there.
This is why we're seeing such negotiability on new car inventory right now because they have to liquidate this expensive stuff so they can replace it with more inexpensive stuff that is more has more appeal to the mass market.
You know yesterday I did an interview with the TV station in Birmingham Alabama and the young lady asked me she said well what advice would you give people to really help.
And I said here's the key advice by what you need not what you want understand your needs are completely different than what your wants are.
Okay and I understand everybody wants all kinds of things but we don't need everything that it is we want so if you're going to look at vehicles look at what you need and what you can afford as opposed to what you want and what you would have to stretch for.
And and by going to 100 month notes we are encouraging people to continue to buy what they want as opposed to what they need and so the best advice out there ladies and gentlemen is don't just get fixated on that bright shiny new object that that offers way more than what you need in your next vehicle.
And just really look deep inside yourself and say what can I get by with so that I can save myself some money and I don't have to sign up for extended loan terms in order to make it happen.
Alright let's switch gears and talk about the new car market thanks for that advice pops key a target 60 days supply in 2026 but dealers seek lower level so on this channel over on the carage main channel my dad and I have been preaching forever that market conditions and days supply which is the measurement of how long you take to sell all available inventory based on current sales rates.
It's kind of like the north star for automotive retail automotive the lower the days supply the less negotiable vehicles are the higher the days supply the more negotiable vehicles are so key targets a 60 day supply in 2026 but dealers dad actually want even lower levels go for it and then I want to go to the carage machine and I want to do some experimentation here.
Well it seems like the headline should be key a once to mimic Toyota when it comes to day supply of automobiles so they can drive the pricing up because that's what it is you know that the best business model out there for all these manufacturers at the moment has been Toyota because they have gone through this entire year and I don't think they're day supply of automobiles.
It has grown any higher than 44 or 45 days at any point in time during this year which is significantly below the sweet spot and most manufacturers would love to be at 60 days the sweet spot for him is probably somewhere between 75 and 90 days and so for key dealers to say oh no we want lower levels than that because they know when those levels are lower than that
the addendum labels come out with the additional dealer markup and and they're able to charge more for their product and discounted less and make more money.
Yeah so really that to me that's what the headline should have been key at once to mimic Toyota when it comes to inventory levels it's just that simple.
Absolutely dad now what's interesting is I encourage everyone to do this it's a fun experiment go to car edge dot com click on shop new in the top of the navigation and then type in Kia and I've gone here dead to Kia tell your eyes and I'm using our zip code here and we're going to actually do this leave some zip codes.
In the chat down below I want to do this for a few other locations nationwide and I just want to look at market conditions for the Kia tell your right this is their big star right like this is the thing that they can't stop selling look how expensive it's gotten 52,900
whoops 55,770 dollars as the MSRP 55,895 43,000 I want to head that I clicked on this one right here and I want to show you the information that you can use to navigate your negotiation with this particular dealership right here moderate leverage based on local market conditions let's look at this we know the invoice price that the dealership paid for the vehicles 53,539
dollars target deal range is there this is what I'm interested 100 days supply right we are talking about how Kia dealers want less than a 60 days supply of inventory in my area here where we are this is 208 95 there's a hundred 100 days supply
this vehicle however that's only 33 days on the lot hasn't been there that long in this area there's 176 similar year make model and trim options for sale and only 79 of so the last 45 days so this is a little on the key of deal this is a little out of sync I don't want a 100 days supply of inventory I want this number just
like we saw in the headline of the other article I want that number below 60 yes and and why do they want it below 60 because if it was to lose quickly this this wouldn't say moderate leverage you would say you know what sorry to cut off but let's do it let's do it really quickly
and it would also the target price that you could pay for it would be higher yeah so here we go let's let's test this theory really quickly there you go I went to a Toyota Corolla
and now it's red limited leverage why 65 days supply 17 days on market so it's really simple stuff here really simple stuff and obviously market to market it can change significantly but it's no wonder Kia dealers are out there saying yeah I want we want under a 60 days supply like I said that's like I said we want more customers of course like everyone one piece
I think what they're saying is we want to be the Korean version of Toyota that's what they're saying they they look at I mean every manufacturer can look at what Toyota has been able to accomplish since the pandemic and they they have really managed on time inventory levels
to match on time demand and so it is it's just yeah if you're a Kia dealer you want to have the same problem that that Toyota dealer has which is well gosh darn it I got more customers than I got vehicles how's that going to work out for my customers they're going to pay they're going
to pay a premium to get it and they're going to be happy to do it because customers have already proven that they're happy to do it they did it during the pandemic they gladly paid five 10 15 20 thousand dollars over MSRP just so they could say they got the vehicle
which to be very clear there are few vehicles right now selling above MSRP most all even those that are in limited supply or selling at or below MSRP but it influences the whole negotiation strategy because it's unlike that Jeep Wrangler that there's a bunch of sitting around at Chrysler Pacifica that we had a couple zip codes come through let's let's jump on them
give me a second here again I'm just using car edge dot com that can you read that zip code out to me that would be eight zero zero one four the Denver area I do believe or Colorado yeah okay so let's see here let's click on this one so let's get a
temperature check on key ateleride conditions in this area strong leverage okay you ready for this look at that that 190 days supply this one's been sitting for 66 days dealers have within 100 miles of this one how about 114 of the same car for sale but only 27 of sold the last 45 days that's
great news first and see that's great news from mark yes yes so you know we've always said it's all regionalized yeah you live in a region where there's a shortage of cars well maybe perhaps it's in your best interest the shop in a region that is has an excess amount
of cars and this would prove it let's do another one here dad this one comes from emerald coast paradise life styles you mind reading that zip code out to me that would be three two four three
nine is that Florida we are in a free port Florida you ready yeah let's find another SX because that's what those other ones where
there we go drum roll please limited leverage oh man this is so fascinating so shearing
baby in this area guys this is late this this stuff geeks me out something so happy because it's just so clear so this one's only been on a lot for 59 days there's a 52 days supply dealers have 15 for sale within 100 miles of this one but it's sold 13 in the last 45 days
if you're in the market for a 2025 key ateleride SX prestige X line and you're in free port Florida or or Colorado you should anticipate getting very different car deals or at least
your amount of work that has to go in to get the car deals going to be very different if you're in free port Florida you should be shopping in a
rural Colorado I mean that's really what it shows and I don't know what the average dock fees are in a rural
Colorado but I can assure you there a hell of a lot lower than the average dock fees in Florida which which are
typically in excess of a thousand dollars the get the yeah yeah you know what I mean you buy the car you fly out the
Colorado and you drive that bad boy home absolutely absolutely well there you go folks that's like again key
dealers want a lower day supply but even the key dealers I'm sure they feel differently in different parts of the
country this is why we built car edge dot com men I'm so glad fantastic work team that worked perfectly today love to see it pops let's
remind everyone one more time that if we can help them with anything today is the last day of our end of year promotion we are
slammed right now but we have enough room to help you if you're looking to get a car deal before the end of the year you need
to sign up between now and the end of the day our team is going to take a nice little day off for Christmas and we are back at it as hard
as we can to get through the end of the year here so please if you haven't taken advantage already take advantage of our
car buying service being a hundred and fifty dollars off car edge pro over just showing there 15% off we'll be back tomorrow with
another show them we're going to take Christmas off and I'll probably back on the day after Christmas because I don't know I don't have any
plans to you no I don't have plans to Sunday when I have to get down to to silver spring so yeah yeah we'll be back we're back
tomorrow folks tune in for more car edge live and as my dad always says tell a friend to join us as well and tell a friend to
tell a friend to tell a friend and everybody uses a different device yeah different devices free yeah yeah all right dad I love
you enjoy the afternoon I love you too thanks everybody for being here today we'll see you back here tomorrow
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About this episode
Carvana is shaking up the auto industry with significant shifts in used car prices and loan origination practices. The episode discusses how Carvana's recent inventory levels and declining vehicle values indicate a potential downturn in the used car market. The hosts highlight the alarming trend of 100-month car loans, emphasizing the financial risks associated with such long-term debt. They also explore the broader implications for consumers and the industry, urging listeners to consider affordability over desire when purchasing vehicles.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest used car market data. Tune in to learn more! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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