Ride the Lightning: Tesla and EV Podcast Jan 4, 2026

Episode 544: My 10 Tesla and EV Predictions for 2026

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Car

Tesla Model X

The Tesla Model S is a high-end electric car that can go long distances on a single charge. It's known for being fast and having a lot of technology features.

Car

Chevy Volt

The Chevy Volt is a car that can run on electricity and gasoline. It can drive a certain distance using only electric power, which helps save on fuel costs.

Car

Tesla Model Y

The Tesla Model Y Performance is a fast electric SUV that has a lot of technology and space for passengers. It's designed for people who want a sporty driving experience.

Car

Nissan Leaf

The Nissan Leaf is an all-electric car that doesn't use gasoline at all. It's known for being affordable and good for everyday driving.

Car

Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3 is a smaller electric car that is popular because it's fun to drive and costs less than other Tesla cars. It's great for people who want to go electric.

Term

crossover SUV

A crossover SUV is a type of vehicle that mixes the comfort of a car with the space of an SUV. They are popular because they are easier to drive and have more room for passengers and cargo.

Term

EV

EV means electric vehicle. It's a car that runs on electricity instead of gas, making it more environmentally friendly.

Car

The Tesla Roadster is a fast electric car that can go from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just a few seconds. It's important because it shows how electric cars can be really powerful and fun to drive, just like traditional sports cars.

Car

McMurtry Spéirling

The McMurtry Spiriting Prototype is a very fast electric car that uses fans to help it stick to the ground while driving quickly.

Concept

downforce

Downforce is what helps keep a car on the ground when it's going fast. It makes the car grip the road better so it doesn't slide around.

Term

Top Gear test track

The Top Gear test track is a special racetrack used in a popular car show where they test how fast cars can go.

Car

Aston Martin Valkyrie

The Aston Martin Valkyrie is a very high-performance car made by Aston Martin. It's designed for speed and has a unique look, similar to race cars.

Car

Rimac Nevera

The Rimac Nevera is a super-fast electric car from a company called Rimac. It's one of the fastest electric cars available.

Concept

hypercar

A hypercar is a type of very fast and expensive car that is better than most sports cars. They are usually made in small numbers and have special features.

Car

Tesla Semi

The Tesla Semi is an electric truck made by Tesla. It's designed to carry heavy loads while being more environmentally friendly than regular trucks.

Term

Gigafactory

A Gigafactory is a huge factory where Tesla makes batteries and electric cars. The goal is to produce a lot of batteries quickly and at a lower cost.

Car

Tesla Cybercab

The Tesla Cybercab is a type of electric taxi that Tesla plans to use for self-driving rides. It's part of their plan to create a fleet of cars that can drive people around without needing a driver.

Car

Tesla Model YL

The Tesla Model YL is a new version of Tesla's Model Y SUV that will be available in 2026. It's an electric car that offers a lot of space and advanced technology.

Term

base price

Base price is the starting cost of a car before you add any extra features or options. It's the price you see before taxes and fees.

Car

Rivians R2

The Rivian R2 is a new electric vehicle that Rivian is planning to release. It will likely be less expensive than their earlier models, making it more available to a wider audience.

Concept

low volume automaker

A low volume automaker is a company that makes fewer cars than big brands like Ford or Toyota. This can make it harder for them to grow and meet demand.

Term

customizable

Customizable means you can change or add things to a car to make it look or work the way you want. It's like personalizing your car just for you.

Car

GMC Hummer EV

Car

Chevrolet Silverado EV

The Chevrolet Silverado EV is an electric truck that can carry heavy loads and drive long distances without using gas. It's important because it shows how trucks can be more environmentally friendly while still being useful.

Term

range

Range is how far an electric car can go before it needs to be charged again. It's important because it tells you how long you can drive without stopping to recharge.

Car

Lucid Air

The Lucid Air is a high-end electric car that can drive very far on a single charge, making it a great option for long trips. It's important because it shows how electric cars can be both luxurious and practical.

Car

Porsche Taycan

The Porsche Taycan is a fancy electric car that is very fast and fun to drive. It's known for being high-quality and expensive, showing that electric cars can also be luxurious.

Concept

Nürburgring

The Nürburgring is a well-known race track in Germany where car companies test their cars. It's famous for being very difficult to drive on.

Term

quarter mile drag race

A quarter mile drag race is a short race where cars try to go as fast as possible over a distance of a quarter mile.

Company

Accelerate Auto

Accelerate Auto is a company that helps car owners by offering extended warranties. This means they provide extra protection for your car after the original warranty from the manufacturer runs out.

Term

battery and drive unit extended service agreement

This is a special warranty from Tesla that covers the battery and the part that makes the car move. It helps protect these important parts after the original warranty is over.

Term

battery degradation

Battery degradation is when an electric car's battery loses its ability to hold a charge over time. This means the car can go fewer miles on a single charge as the battery gets older.

Term

drive unit failure

Drive unit failure happens when the part of an electric car that makes it move stops working. This can cause the car to not drive at all.

Term

gigawatt hours

A gigawatt hour is a way to measure a lot of electricity. It's used to describe how much energy a big battery can store or produce over time.

Car

Renault Wind

The Renault Wind is a small car that can be driven with the top down, making it fun for sunny days. It's not as common as other cars, but it was popular for its sporty look.

Car

Bmw 3

The BMW 3 Series is a stylish and comfortable car that is fun to drive. It's popular among people who want a mix of luxury and sporty performance, and it competes with newer electric cars.

Car

Mercedes-Benz Cclass

The Mercedes-Benz C-Class is a comfortable and stylish car that feels luxurious to drive. It's important because it competes with newer electric cars while still being a popular choice for those who like gas-powered vehicles.

Car

Chevrolet Spin

The Chevrolet Spin is a family-friendly car that has lots of space for passengers and luggage. It's useful for people who need a practical vehicle for everyday use.

LIVE

On this week's episode of Ride the Lightning,

the Tesla and EV podcast,

I make my annual Tesla predictions for the new year,

bringing in other EVs into the conversation this year as well.

Plus, Tesla posts its Q4 and full year 2025 numbers and more.

Happy New Year, friends! I'm Ryan McCaffrey, joining you for episode 544 of Ride the Lightning,

my weekly Tesla and EV podcast. This one's publishing on January 4th, 2026.

I'm recording it here on Friday evening, January 2nd.

As usual, I'm flanked by my two canine companions.

I've got a snoozing Daisy the Boxer over on the couch to my left,

who is very happy and tired after our nice long walk today.

And then to my right, oh, and she's got a squeak toy,

so we'll see if you end up hearing any of that through the microphone on the podcast.

We've got Lily the Silly Labrador, who is trapped inside for a little while here.

She has gone into heat, her first heat, which is, you know, she's right in the rain.

She's like 10 and a half months old, so not unexpected,

but that means she's got to stay on our premises

and not be out in the wild for a little bit until that's done.

So trying to keep her busy with some good chew toys and things,

because she's just got energy. She needs to get out.

I've got plenty of information I want to get out to you and fun stuff,

I hope, kind of a mix of information and fun stuff.

This week's episode, my first of 2026, so happy new year again, everybody.

2026, for me, I have the great privilege to say it will mark my eighth year as an EV driver,

which is crazy to me because it still kind of feels like just yesterday

that I was, as I always used to say in the early days of this podcast,

the kid with his face pressed up against the glass, looking in on the outside,

looking in, wanting to be inside and be part of the EV ownership group.

And now I have really had the privilege, it is a true privilege to have one, in fact,

and now two great EVs, and that is something that I genuinely try not to take for granted.

In fact, I mean, I'm still paying for one of them off, so it's a good reminder every month

to not take it for granted, because I'm still paying for it. But yeah, this is my eighth year

as an EV driver, and let's see, this is, in terms of calendar years, I believe it's now the 12th

year that Ride the Lightning has existed, but it's really, it's year 11 for the moment.

The anniversary comes along at the beginning of August, but boy, it has been a heck of a run,

and I've had a great time. And you know, I was thinking about what I wanted to do for this week's

Patreon poll, which every week, it's totally free to vote in, you don't have to be supporting me

on Patreon at all. Just visit my Patreon page, which is patreon.com slash Tesla podcast,

and I put up a different poll question each week that usually ties into one of the news stories

that I'm going to talk about. Well, for this week's question, as I was putting my notes together,

and I started, of course, with that kind of intro note about it being a new year, obviously,

and so I thought, well, yeah, okay, if it's my eighth year, this year, if it's going to be

my eighth year as an EV driver, I wonder what my audience looks like in that regard. So I made that

this week's Patreon poll question, which was, how many years as an EV driver will you hit in 2026?

And it was really neat to see. I just honestly wasn't sure what the answer would be, what the most

popular answers would be, because I know that my audience is, yes, it leans enthusiastic, right? If

you're listening to a Tesla and EV podcast every week, you lean more towards the enthusiast side

of things, and that's great, and that means you've probably been an EV driver longer than maybe your

neighbors or your friends or your coworkers kind of thing, and that did bear out in the poll. So

I would be in this same group that quote unquote won this week's poll, there's not really any

winning, but the most popular response, 33% of you, and by the way, I think this might have been an

all-time record for most votes in a Patreon poll, so thank you to everybody that kindly stopped by

and cast your vote. 389 votes, and 33% of you are in the seven to nine year group,

which is the same group that I'm in. The next highest, 18% of you are going to be hitting

somewhere in the five to seven year range this year, that's awesome, and right behind those folks

at 15% of the votes, 10 years or more, so 15% of you are a decade into this or more,

which means you're all either Model S owners or I guess technically, yeah, Model X, if you're an

early, early Model X owner, you could be in this group too. Certainly there have been a couple of

other early EVs that might have qualified as well, and rounding it out, you had right there as well,

14% of you are in the three to five year group, 10% of you will hit two to three years this year,

and for 5% of you, it's your first year as an EV driver, and 4% of you don't have an EV just yet,

but you're looking forward to getting one, so just, yeah, that was kind of some fun demographic

sort of a mini survey, I guess, to kind of see where my audience stands, I thought that was really

cool, so a lot of great comments, and this as well, I don't want to dwell on this for too long,

but like Adam Christie saying, started with a Chevy Volt in 2013, granted that's a hybrid,

but he knows that, he says 90% of his miles were driven via electricity, and then in 2022,

we got a Model Y performance. What are some of the other good ones here? There were, oh, here we go,

Philip Morris, Philip E. Morris, I started with a 2012 Nissan Leaf, which I bought in 2016,

then moved to Tesla in 2018 with a Model 3 and now a Cybertruck, he says I'll never drive a gas

powered car again, thank you to everybody that kindly took the time to vote. Speaking of my

Patreon, for those of you who are kind enough to be supporting my efforts with Ride the Lightning

over on my Patreon page, which again is patreon.com slash Tesla podcast,

I hope all of you at that ludicrous tier, that's the $10 per month tier, which is the most popular

one, that's the one that gets the weekly lightning round bonus mini episode, there are now 175 of

them, little mini milestone this week, this week's was about my EV related New Year's resolution,

so if you're curious to hear that, you can check that out on my Patreon page,

which I just gave you the link for, or you can just click the link in the episode description,

and as a reminder, anytime that anybody joins the Patreon at that $10 per month tier or higher,

you'll get access to all 175 of those lightning rounds and of course all the future ones

that publish each week as you are a member, and if you'd like to do an annual pledge,

just pledge once for an entire year of support, and you'd rather do that than the month to month

thing, there's a nice 10% discount waiting for you on that annual pledge as a thank you, so check

that out. Okay, let's get right to the headline topic for this week, what has become an annual

tradition here since the very very early days of the podcast, I'm not sure if I did this the first

year, or maybe it was the second year, but in any case, I've been doing this for a long,

long time, this is a fun, just a fun thing that I enjoy doing at the start of every new year,

it's my Tesla and now this year EV predictions for 2026, and for those of you that have been with

me for at least a year, you know that we start by holding myself accountable, let's review and

score last year's predictions, there were a total last year of 13 of them, which means a maximum of

13 points, if it's one point per correct answer, per correct prediction, I should say, so let's start

real quick, we'll go through last year's and then I'll give you my new predictions for this year, so

my first 2025 prediction was that the single motor Cybertruck would debut in the first quarter

of 2025, and you know what, I was half right, because even though it wasn't the original

version of the of the rear wheel drive Cybertruck, the standard range that was originally listed as

being $40,000 with a 250 mile range, but Tesla did debut a single motor Cybertruck just past Q1,

it was early April, in fact I looked it up, April 10th to be specific, and as we know now,

it was the long range rear wheel drive version that had a whole ton of stuff stripped out of it,

and so maybe you'll disagree, but I'm the judge jury and executioner on this, so I think it is

fair to give myself half a point for this one, since ultimately I was only off by 10 days,

I was so close, I'm going to give myself a half a point on that.

Prediction two for last year, I said while staying on the subject of the Cybertruck,

I said I also think that the Cybertruck will get a price cut in Q1 of 2025, so not only did I say

it would get one in the year, but I doubled down and said when, and I thought it would be Q1,

wrongo, absolutely wrong on that one, not only did this not happen in Q1 of 2025,

it didn't happen at all in 2025, in fact the opposite happened, the Cyberbeast went up in price

since Tesla started force bundling it with the Luxe package, and then the aforementioned long range

rear wheel drive stripped down cheaper Cybertruck that was 70 grand lasted all of five months before

getting killed off in September, and I can say, I'm going to say this again, I've said this before

when it was originally discontinued in September, and I can say it again now, now that another three

months have passed, I am genuinely not sure if Tesla ever delivered a single one of those stripped

down rear wheel drive Cybertrucks, because I see Cybertrucks every single day in the San Francisco

Bay area, and I can honestly tell you I've never seen a single one, and the thing is, if you're

like well there are Cybertrucks, they all look the same, they do not, the long range rear wheel drive

would be easy to spot because it has the smaller steel wheels and an open bed since they don't have

the powered retractable to no cover, in fact just as a quick side note, if you have ever seen

for sure, like you know for sure it was a long range rear wheel drive Cybertruck, if you've ever

seen one in the wild, can you just email me teslapodcast at gmail.com, I'm kind of now curious if

like I was half joking when I said I'm not sure if Tesla's ever really delivered one,

but now I'm kind of one, maybe I'll just ask you guys, have any of you ever seen one, but anyway

the point here, circling back to the prediction, I get zero points for that one,

prediction three from last year, I said I think the Juniper will launch in Q1, nailed that one,

yes that absolutely happened as we all know, in fact here's part of what I said a year ago,

I went back to my old notes, I said however Tesla chooses to do this rollout, it's going to hurt at

least a little bit since the Y is the company's big money maker, it makes sense to do it globally,

rip the Band-Aid off all at once, and it makes sense to do it early in the year during what is

historically Tesla's and the greater auto industry's slowest quarter of the year, nailed it,

so yes full point for me on that one, so right now I've got one and a half points out of a possible

three, prediction four from last year, I said I predict Juniper will use a 48 volt architecture,

well nope we don't need to dwell on that one, I got too bold with that prediction, Juniper did not

change that much under the skin, so no points on that prediction, 2025 prediction five was that

Juniper would get power share, and I was half correct on that, so here's part of what I said

about this prediction last year, Tesla has never said that power share would be exclusive to the

Cybertruck, they just said that Cybertruck and future vehicles would have it, why not put it on

the company's biggest money maker and use it as a massive competitive advantage in an increasingly

busy crossover SUV marketplace, not to mention offer a massive safety benefit

to customers in the increasingly common event of a local power outage, and well one year later

that logic is still sound if I do say so myself, and as it turns out the new performance Y does

have a version of power share, so that's where I'm going to give myself half a point on this one,

prediction six last year was the Roadster Re-Reveal that Elon said would happen around

the end of the year meaning 2024, I said that it wouldn't happen in 2025, I was feeling pessimistic,

and unfortunately my pessimism proved correct, I did nail that one, hate being right about it,

but yes I was correct on that one, a full point is awarded to myself, and I almost,

I would have much rather have lost, you know had gotten zero points and been wrong on that prediction,

we were told right up through October, including Franz von Holshausen telling me directly

on this podcast in my most recent interview with him that that Roadster Re-Reveal was still on

track for 2025, but then in early November at the annual shareholder meeting CEO Elon Musk

got asked the same question by a shareholder during the shareholder Q&A, and Elon said it

would be happening on April 1st of 2026, so time will tell if he's just April fooling us,

or if we are finally going to see this car in action in now less than three months,

not to mention by the way see what it looks like now, because it's going to have evolved

and changed on the design side and to some extent whether that's a sort of a minor change or more

of a radical redesign we shall see. Prediction 7 last year I said model 2.5 is the only vehicle

reveal of the year, and I guess kinda I got that right because it turned out that the model 2.5

as I'd been calling it was a stripped down model 3 and a stripped down model y, so were they really

vehicle reveals? I mean they were really just new trims, but they were revealed and they are

pretty different than their premium counterparts both inside and outside the car,

so I'm going to go ahead and give myself half a point on that one. I hope you don't mind,

I'm going to give myself a half a point on that one. Prediction 8 from last year I said

speaking of the model 2.5 vehicles, I think production will start by June 30th as Tesla

has suggested, and that's a big LOL to me on that one that certainly did not happen.

Here's part of what I had said when I was making this prediction last year, I said quote,

you might say why would you be that optimistic Ryan when Tesla is always late with their vehicles?

And then I said, it seems like they are, but it's not actually true. When they've kept things

simple like with the 3 and the y rather than shooting for the moon on engineering and or

manufacturing like on SX and Cybertruck, they've actually been either on time or early. The 3 was

early and the y was either on time or early. I said at the time I couldn't quite remember which.

Plus Tesla has repeatedly told us in shareholder letters that they're trying to get this next

vehicle line into production ASAP as it is the catalyst for their next growth wave. That's a

out, as we fast forward back to 2026, that all of that was pretty wrong on my part. No points

awarded. Production definitely didn't start by June 30th on the standard 3 and standard y,

and gee, where's that new growth wave that Tesla was talking about? More on that when I get to the

Q4 and overall 2025 production and delivery numbers later on in the podcast.

We're getting towards the end here. Don't worry before we get to the new ones.

Here's prediction nine from last year. I said here's my boldest prediction that I don't want to

come true, but I'm predicting it anyway because I can absolutely see Tesla doing it. They're going

to sunset the SNX to make way in Fremont for a dedicated Model 2.5 line. Thankfully, that did

not happen. Again, I said at the time that I didn't want that prediction to come true.

Fortunately, it did not. The Model S and Model X do live on, and though they did get a very minor

refresh, it was very minor and sales do not seem to have really been bumped up at all, as again,

we'll talk about later in the podcast when I get to the 2025 numbers. But anyway, for this one,

I'm happy to take zero points on this and have been incorrect. I was correct on prediction 10

for last year though. I said even if the tax credit goes away, the Model 3 does not get a standard

range LFP battery pack back because the 2.5 fills that void. And I was correct there. Last year,

I said, so I suppose this prediction is quite simply, the LFP pack base Model 3 is not coming back

even if the tax credit goes away, even if it's $5,000 cheaper than the current base Model 3,

the long range rear wheel drive. I think by the time the tax credit might be politically erased,

the Model 2.5 cars will either be in production or about to go into production.

And all of that actually proved to be accurate, so I will take my full point on that.

Certainly, it remains to be seen how much interest the buying public will have in a stripped down

$40,000 Model Y and a stripped down $37,500 Model 3. Stay tuned and another quarter from now

when both of those vehicles have been on the market for a full quarter. Prediction 11 for 2025 was

Tesla will break its all time sales record for each quarter in every quarter this year. And well,

sadly no, not even close on that one. My rationale for that was, here's what I said last year,

the three fresh is at full production speed now. Cyber truck is going to continue to ramp up.

And as I just got done talking about, I guess a year ago, the 2.5 cars will be coming online

around mid-year, so that's why I think Tesla will set records for each quarter all year long.

And sadly, the Cyber truck did not ramp up and the Model 2.5s, now we know them as the

standard Y and standard 3, did not come online around mid-year. In fact, I guess just the first

couple of deliveries happened right at the end of the year, right at the end of Q4. And then, of

course, there was the change over on all the factory production lines to the new Model Y,

which did happen quickly, but it still impacted the first half of the year, especially obviously

Q1. Now, that said, Tesla did have its best Q3 ever on the back of the expiration of the $7,500

federal tax credit at the end of Q3, so I'm going to award myself a quarter point, yes,

you heard me, a quarter point since I got one quarter of the four quarters correct on that

prediction. I make the rules, so that's what I'm doing. Prediction 12 from last year, I said,

Optimus gets deployed in meaningful numbers at one or more Tesla factories to assist in factory

operations and or vehicle assembly. We're not quite there yet, that didn't happen, no points

awarded. And my final prediction for 2025, I said, Tesla will introduce a new paint color

this year, meaning 2025. And not only did I get this correct, this is what I said specifically

last year. I said, for what it's worth, I think it'll be a new blue that abyss blue that was found

in the mobile app code several years ago hasn't materialized yet. Well, guess what? Tesla launched

three new colors in 2025, and all of them were blues. Somehow, the North American market here

in my neck of the woods still has deep blue metallic on the menu for 3NY, even after 10 years

of Tesla using that color. But SNX of course now have frost blue, Shanghai built Model Ys got

glacier blue, while European Model Ys got a new color called marine blue, which by the way,

when I was writing these notes, it just hit me, I was like, wait a second, that's almost certainly

the abyss blue that was found in the code with reference to Giga Berlin

all those years ago, meaning like three or four years ago now. I mean, think about it,

if abyss blue was kind of a code name, and then when it comes out, it's called marine blue,

they're both water themed names, I think that's it. I think marine blue is that abyss blue from

years back. So Shanghai built Model 3s, meaning Model 3s everywhere outside of North America

can also get the marine blue. So just because I nailed that prediction so completely,

I am actually going to give myself a bonus point. Now, I could even make the case to award myself

three points since there were three new blue colors, but I'll stay a little bit humble

and just take one bonus point on that. So I'm taking two points for that one, meaning for the

all of the whole of my 2025 predictions, I got 6.75 points out of 13, which that's not bad,

considering how difficult a company Tesla is to predict. That's not too bad. I will take that.

All right, so now let's move on to my 2026 Tesla and other EV predictions.

Prediction one, here we go. The new Tesla Roadster has fans on the bottom of it,

like the McMurtry spiraling prototype that I talked about, and those fans suction it to the

ground and allow it to corner at ridiculously high speeds, and we will see this demoed at the

re-reveal event. That is prediction one. I know I talked about this already when that patent

regarding fans on the for Tesla, I guess it wasn't necessarily a specifically the patent

didn't specifically mention the Roadster, but that's where I connected the dots I think pretty

naturally. So I did mention that McMurtry spiraling prototype when I was talking about that patent

on whatever episode that was, and if you still haven't seen that video, it is worth watching.

So it's on the Top Gear YouTube channel. So if you go to the Top Gear YouTube channel and then

search McMurtry, M-C-M-U-R-T-R-Y McMurtry, it is a really awesome video to watch. This car with

these these giant fans just suctioning it to the ground and it flies around. It spoiler alert,

it broke the Top Gear record for the quickest time around their Top Gear test track. So that's

what these fans can do. And so I think that's what that's one of the tricks that the new Tesla

Roadster is going to be packing. And hopefully we will find out in on April 1st when when that

demo is hopefully going to be happening. In fairness, patents don't always lead to becoming

real products or real parts, let alone features implemented in a shipping product.

But I do think that those fans could be and would be a huge key to how Tesla would separate the

Roadster from all of the other hypercars out there, whether they're fellow EV hypercars,

like the Rimock-Navera or a gas-powered hypercar like say the Aston Martin Valkyrie.

So put me down for the fans on the new Tesla Roadster. Prediction two, the final production

version of the Tesla Semi sees 20,000 deliveries in 2026. So basically I'm making a delivery prediction

for the new semi, the production version of it, 20,000 trucks. And here's the only problem with

this prediction. I'm not even sure that we're going to get numbers for this on a quarterly or

even annual basis. I guess it depends on whether or not Tesla wants to divulge them specifically,

or if they just decide to lump them in with SX and Cybertruck in the other vehicles category

of their production and delivery reports. So maybe I'll end up having to just throw this

prediction out and not count it for or against myself when I go back to score these in a year from

now. But with that Tesla Semi factory set to open soon at Gigant Nevada, and with that factory

being capable of 50,000 trucks per year when fully ramped up, my prediction is that Tesla will get

20,000 out the door in 2026. My third prediction, the Cybertruck's price

will be at least $10,000 less at the end of 2026 than it is right now. And as we all know,

right now it's $80,000. So I realize that I'm basically like the boy who cried wolf about

Cybertruck price cuts at this point, but Tesla seemingly can't keep the Cybertruck

priced where it is forever, can they? And the reason that I, and I'm being serious when I say

that, because the real reason I'm saying that, history says that the price will go down.

History being that the price on every new vehicle Tesla has ever introduced

has always gone down over time. I guess I got to put an asterisk on that. The original Tesla

Roadster never got a price cut, but okay, let's set that one aside. But SX3Y all saw their prices go

down over the years. In the case of SNX, they've kind of come back up, but still nowhere near where

they like they're all time high. So that is my prediction. Prediction number three,

Cybertruck will be at least $10,000 less than it is now at the end of 2026.

Prediction four, Cybercab won't be sold to the public in 2026. Production on Cybercab,

as we know, is supposed to begin in April. That's according to Tesla's most recent earnings call

and shareholder letter. We've been told that they will be built using that super advanced

unboxing method that cranks cars out incredibly quickly. However, production, as we've learned

with Tesla over the years, is always slowest at the very beginning, and there's still the regulatory

side of things to consider as well. Yes, it's true that Tesla did say that they are confident

that they will have regulatory approval. They will have regulatory approval by April,

and thus it won't be a problem. But I think we would all agree, regardless of where anybody

falls on the political spectrum, governments tend to move slower than you think, expect,

or want them to most of the time. So they don't tend to go faster than you want or expect or hope.

So that means it's a potential hurdle. I hope it won't be one, but the regulatory approval piece

is a potential hurdle. But getting back to this prediction specifically, I do believe that Tesla

will keep all of the first run of Cybercabs for its own use in robotaxi networks in various cities

for at least all of 2026. That's what I mean when I say that I don't think the Cybercab will be

sold to the public this year. Elon has said that we'd be able to buy our own Cybercab if we want

to, although a Patreon poll that I ran on this back when he said that seemed to suggest that

there's not necessarily a huge appetite for people wanting one of their own. But again, if

that happens, that meaning Cybercabs being sold to the general public, I just don't think that

will happen this year. My fifth prediction is something I've already talked about recently,

in fact quite recently, but I'm just going to set it in stone right here and make it officially

part of my 2026 predictions. The Model YL will become available in North America in 2026.

I mean, quite frankly, Tesla needs to pull all of the levers it can to drive as many sales as

much demand as they can. Sales have now declined in two straight years for various reasons. Again,

I'll talk more about that after the predictions. But the bottom line here is that Tesla's sales

are heading in the wrong direction two years in a row for now. And the Model YL is a product that

has been having a lot of success in China thus far. It also appears to be launching in Europe soon,

as I talked about on what was that last episode or the one before super recently that had come up.

And so I think it goes global this year also at some point by being added to the design studio

in North America before the end of the year. Now as a bonus, I'll even give a price prediction.

It's the same one I've held to for a while now, but I think if and when, and I'm betting on when,

the Model YL hits North America or hits the United States, it will be its base price will be $60,000

US dollars or more specifically $59,990. Prediction 6, Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Cybertruck

will go effectively untouched hardware-wise for 2026. I just think none of those four cars

are going to get any notable changes. The fact is S and X just got their minor refresh,

and the Model 3 just got a turn signal stock added back into it. There's really nothing to

be done hardware-wise on the Cybertruck, but you just need to get the price down like I was talking

about a few minutes ago. And the Model Y I just can't include in this prediction because of

the last prediction that the Model YL would be coming, which that would be a hardware change

for 2026. So I just feel like 2026 is going to be all about CyberCab and the RoboTaxi Network

on the automotive side of Tesla's business, along with yes, the re-reveal of the Roadster,

which to be clear is not going to get delivered to anybody in 2026. And then as I said,

hopefully the introduction of Model YL into Europe and then later in the year North America.

All right, moving to some other EVs here. Prediction 7 is this. Rivian's R2 will be a huge hit.

Now, I know that's a very vague thing to say. You're listening to that going, well, Ryan,

how can we hold you accountable to that prediction? How do we define huge hit? So let me put it this

way. I think Rivian will have more orders than they can fill in 2026. The fact of the matter is

they are going to go through production hell, just like Tesla did, because currently they are a low

volume automaker, just as Tesla was prior to the Model 3. And it is going to be really difficult

for them to navigate that production hell. They do have a huge new production plant that's under

construction in Georgia, but R2 is confirmed to be built first at their existing normal Illinois

based plant. But I just think it is going to be a combination of very popular for its price

point. It's starting price is $45,000. So it's going to be a combination of being popular with that

really attractive price point. And I think it's just going to be hard to come by because Rivian

is inevitably going to have a tough time ramping up production to meet the demand. So that's what

I mean when I say huge hit. And to just to make it explicitly clear, I am so rooting for Rivian

here. I want nothing more than for this prediction to be correct, because it would mean that the R2

is in fact a huge hit. So I can't wait to see how this launch goes. Stay tuned. I'll be covering

it this year when it happens. Prediction eight elsewhere in the EV space. I hate to be a pessimist,

but here's this prediction. The slate truck, which I've talked about, the slate truck will not deliver

any units to customers this year. Now again, I'd be thrilled for them to prove me wrong,

but for as cool as this sub $30,000 bare bones, super customizable by design,

small electric pickup truck is, I just can't see them hitting their target of first customer

deliveries by the end of the year. And I say that because I've studied Tesla so closely for so long,

and then I've watched the likes of Rivian and Lucid follow them making a car that has been certified

by government approval, you know, regulatory approval that can be delivered to a customer.

It is one of the hardest things in all of commerce or industry. It just is. It's in the top five,

if not the top three, if not number one, delivering a car that you can legally sell to a regular person

off the street, that is hard. So that's why I think the slate will slip to next year, to 2027.

But again, if Slate's listening, hey, prove me wrong guys, I would be very happy to eat these

words in a year from now. Prediction nine, the penultimate prediction for this year.

I'm dipping back to Tesla for a second before I then I'll go back to other EVs, but I've got

one more Tesla prediction that came to mind. And yes, it's about the new roadster,

because let's be honest, the road, I mean, the new roadster, that's going to be the only

proper vehicle unveiling of 2026, because the cybercabs already been unveiled. The cybercab

will be launching. So that's cool. That's awesome. But in terms of a, a new reveal, a newly revealed

vehicle. And yes, I know the, it's not technically new, new because the roadster was revealed eight

years ago, but the car is going to be, it's going to look different. So anyway, prediction nine,

the new roadster will not have a 620 mile range, as was originally announced in 2017,

but I predict that it can do zero to 60 in 1.1 seconds with the assistance of the SpaceX cold

gas thrusters. So again, part just, just pardon me here for a quick minute while I circle back

to roadster again. That car again was originally unveiled in 2017. And at that time, it promised a

200 kilowatt hour battery pack, which other EVs have delivered. Tesla hasn't gone up that high yet,

but the Chevy Silverado EV, the Hummer EV have battery packs that large. But the roadster in

2017 promised 200 kilowatt hours and a 620 mile, AKA an even 1000 kilometer range. So I don't think

the final car is going to want to carry that much weight, kind of like how Bruce Wayne goes to Lucius

Fox early in the dark night and tells him he's carrying too much weight. He needs to be lighter.

You know, sorry, I just rewatched the dark night like a month ago. I rewatch it usually at least

once a year because it's my favorite movie ever. But I just don't, seriously, I don't think the new

roadster is going to want to carry around that much weight, nor do I think that anybody that would

be buying that car is really crying out for that much range. Would 620 miles be cool? Yeah.

But for that car, a performance razor, like just a specialized tool that's built for speed

and high performance, I just don't think 620 miles of range really aligns with that goal. I mean,

after all, like to give a real world example here, the Lucid Air has offered 520 miles of range for

a couple years now and nobody seems to really care. And what I mean by that is it's not like

Lucid Air sales numbers have gone through the roof because it's a car that would, I guess,

by really any metric cure or alleviate range anxiety, right? 520 miles, you can go anywhere.

But it just hasn't seemed to matter for Lucid. And I just don't see 620 miles being something

that really matters to a roadster buyer. I just don't think it's what a supercar buyer wants or

really cares too much about because most of those drivers, most of those roadster buyers,

will never road trip in it. And so if the car's got a 350, 400 mile range for, you know, whatever

whatever kilowatt hour size battery pack translates to a 350, 400 mile range, maybe that's

110, 120 kilowatt hours, maybe, that would provide plenty of power for a full day at the track.

So that's my prediction. Now, I guess the second part I need to address there.

As for that power, if you're wondering, wait, what are you talking about with this 1.1 second

zero to 60 time, that figure comes from a placard at the Peterson Auto Museum.

Back when they had the roadster on the functioning roadster prototype, the red one,

on display at the Peterson in 2021, I went to see it. And they had that on the placard that it said

could have, it had zero to 60 time of 1.1 seconds with the SpaceX package. And here's the thing,

the Peterson folks, the museum folks, obviously did not come up with that 1.1 number on their own.

They didn't just pull that out of like, we weren't like guessing that that's what it would be capable

of. Tesla gave them that number. And here's the thing, Tesla has never missed when it comes to

their crazy performance figures. So I think what's going to happen with roadster is that car's going

to grip, then those thrusters are going to kick in, and then you are basically teleported down the

track. So again, I predict roadster will not have a 620 mile range. It will be less than that.

And, but it will achieve 1.1 seconds from zero to 60 with the SpaceX package.

My 10th and final prediction for this year, speaking of super cars slash hyper cars,

Ferrari, Ferrari has an EV coming out this year. And their first EV I predict will not beat a,

what will soon be five year old Model S Plaid down the drag strip. However, I do predict that

Ferrari's first full EV will blow away the Plaid on a proper track. So if you haven't

heard about it yet, Ferrari's first EV is called the Eletrica, E-L-E-T-T-R-I-C-A, Eletrica.

It is due out this year, and we do already know a little bit about it, even though we don't know

what it looks like yet. So it's a sedan, it's not a two door sports car, it's quad motor,

and Ferrari's already advertising a zero to 60 time of about 2.3 seconds and a range of about

330 miles. So it's going to be cool. I have little doubt about that, but what I worry about is that

it will be more expensive than say a loaded Porsche Taycan or a Lucid Air Sapphire, which is a

quarter million dollar car, and that the Eletrica will be slower down the drag strip than either of

those, or for that matter, the Model S Plaid, which is a nine second car. And again, by the time the

Eletrica ships, the Plaid S will have turned five. It'll be a half decade old already. How is time

going by this quickly? I don't get it, but what I am confident to give Ferrari some love and some

credit here, I am very confident that the brand new Eletrica is going to torch those other cars

around the track, whether that's the Nurburgring or anywhere else. That is what Ferrari does.

And now that said, I'm not sure that it's going to be enough to convince the Ferrari buying crowd

to go electric, but hopefully it's a good first step for them into the EV space. Now I couldn't

help but have this thought while I was making these notes. So if you'll humor me for one more moment,

to put a tinfoil hat on for a second, what I hope Ferrari is not doing is intentionally

sandbagging this car so that if it doesn't sell, they can just say, we'll see, nobody wants EVs,

and then they go back to making all gas powered cars. That's what I don't want to see happen with

Ferrari. But anyway, my prediction here again is that it goes around the Nurburgring or pretty

much any other track faster than a Model S Plaid, but loses to a Plaid in a quarter mile drag race.

I'm eager to see what this car, I want to see what it looks like. I'm very curious. I mean,

Ferrari has not been afraid to get a little weird in recent years. The Perot Sangway,

if you've seen that thing, it's like they're, it's sort of, it's not sort of,

it's their take on an SUV. It's, I guess, if I were to drop the words sort of in there, it would be

it's sort of an SUV. It is Ferrari's take on an SUV, and it's kind of neat if you ask me.

I get why Ferrari purists hate it or might hate it, but anyway, I'm really interested to see the

Electrica and then see what it's capable of. Alright, to finish up this admittedly very long

segment, I want to say thank you to the RTL Pod subreddit. That's where you can go if you want

to join the subreddit that the community has taken up. I have nothing to do with it. I got an

email from a nice listener that said, I started a subreddit for the podcast. It's r slash RTL Pod.

So they made their own thread without any input from me, and they dropped a bunch of their own

predictions in there. And all I can give you here is my word that I did not click into that

thread. I did not look at their predictions until after I'd already written my 10 that I just read

you. So I wanted to mention a couple of my favorites from the subreddit. User I1798657

predicts Model S and X production moves to Austin and is put on a new platform with a big refresh

release in 2027. Well, user I1798657, you certainly get points for that being a bold prediction.

I guess my question to you would be what replaces that vacated assembly line real estate

in here in Fremont if the Model S and X were to move to Austin for a bigger revamp.

And I guess the only answer to that question I can come up with is the new Roadster,

which actually would make sense because Tesla's going to start preparation like

literal logistical manufacturing preparation for Roadster this year, most likely,

famous last words, but it would make some sense. So we shall see, we'll check on this one in a year,

we'll come back to it, we'll grade this one as well. And then one other one from the subreddit

that I wanted to read you. User Jesper predicts Tesla does more than half a million true

robot taxi rides per week like Waymo is doing right now, Jesper says, by June. So half a million

robot taxi rides per week, meaning, and Jesper noted true robot taxi rides, meaning fully

driverless there is how I how I interpret that. So another bold prediction. And I guess the key

to that is going to be how many markets will they be completely autonomous in by June?

Austin, certainly that's that's going to be first up and it appears to be soon.

Hopefully the San Francisco Bay Area, which is a big market.

But the big question is, can any of the other announced markets, which as of this recording

haven't even launched at all with safety monitors, Phoenix, Vegas, etc. Can any of those go fully

autonomous by June? We shall see. Again, I guess, well, we don't have to wait a full year on this

prediction. We can check back in on this one in June. Thank you to everybody who posted a prediction

over on the RTL pod subreddit. A quick word about my friends at Accelerate Auto and their Xcare

extended warranty offerings for Teslas and all EVs before I get to the 2025 and Q4 2025 production

and delivery numbers. As you may have heard, Tesla themselves now offers a battery and drive

unit extended service agreement, but it's not for every Tesla owner and it's not the same kind

of protection. So Tesla's battery ESA is available only for Model 3 and Model Y. That means SX

Cybertruck owners, you're out of luck. For those who qualify, Tesla's battery ESA lasts just two

years or 30,000 miles after the factory coverage ends. Xcares battery and drive unit protection

is built for long-term ownership, not short extensions. Tesla charges a $500 deductible per

visit on that. Multiple visits mean multiple deductibles. Xcare offers flexible deductible

options designed to limit repeat out-of-pocket costs. Tesla requires all covered repairs to

be done only at Tesla service centers. Xcare works with approved EV repair facilities,

including Tesla, giving owners flexibility when wait times matter. Tesla excludes battery

degradation, capacity loss, and software-related performance changes. Xcare focuses on actual

battery and drive unit failure risk, not just narrow definitions. Tesla offers limited coverage,

limited models, limited time. Xcare delivers broader longer-term protection when you compare

them side-by-side. So go to xcares.com to find the best coverage plan for you today.

That's xcares.com and tell them Ryan from Ride the Lightning sent you.

Alright, well now that we've had some fun scoring last year's predictions and making

some new ones, I unfortunately have to bring down the mood a bit with the Q4 2025 and overall

2025 Tesla production and delivery numbers. From Tesla's usual short and sweet press release,

they said, quote, in the fourth quarter, we produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over

418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 gigawatt hours of energy storage products, a record for

deployments. Thank you to all of our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters

who helped us achieve these results. And for the year, that means that Tesla produced

1,654,667 cars and delivered just about the same number, 1,636,129. That is down

from 1.78 million in 2024. So 1.63 this year, 1.78 last year, breaking it down more specifically,

the Model 3 and the Model Y accounted for 1.585 million of those 1.636 million.

And the other vehicles category were 50,850 delivered in 2025 after that same category,

meaning SX and Cybertruck, was 85,000 delivered in 2024. Both are a drop in the bucket compared

to the overall number, compared to the three in the Y number, but just compared apples to apples

there, SX Cybertruck from 85,000 delivered last year to just under 51,000 delivered this year.

That means that the SNX clearly did not get any surge of renewed interest for the minor refresh

that they got. And even worse, I think we've had enough time now, I think we have to face facts

and say that the Cybertruck is a failure. I mean, not from an engineering perspective,

but from a sales perspective, it's not good. I mean, could it bounce back? It could, but

I mean, come on, we've got to be honest here, especially when we're comparing against the

250,000 Cybertruck per year target that Elon had repeatedly set leading up to the launch of it.

We're at about an order of magnitude less than that, and I'll talk more about that in a second.

But it's, I mean, when you look at it, big picture here for all of the money, all of the

resources, all the brainpower that went into designing, engineering, manufacturing the Cybertruck,

the fact of the matter is two years later, technically slightly more, but two years in,

it is not meaningfully adding to the company's bottom line, nor in the even bigger picture,

is it meaningfully helping to advance the company's goal of transitioning to the

world to sustainable energy. Again, two full calendar years now, all of 24 and all of 25,

and it's been in general production for one full calendar year. All of 25, you may remember,

general production started in early Q4 of 2024. So that means we've had a full year of widely

available, regular price Cybertruck without any foundation series bundles upping the price.

And again, I mean, I am morbidly curious what the breakdown is in that 50,850 number for the year

between SX and Cybertruck. And by the way, I have to throw this out just as a,

not, I'm not trying to just doom and gloom this to death, but there were numerous reports

unconfirmed, but there were numerous reports out there that SpaceX bought at least a thousand

Cybertrucks. Now they definitely bought some like they've been seen on SpaceX grounds, but

so it's just a question of how many, but which, which means I'm not saying that's like a cheat

code for Tesla here necessarily, though some pessimistic folks would view it that way. But

the reason I point that out is because that means it's something, it's a one time thing,

right? It's not something that's going to be repeated every quarter or even every year.

And so my guess, and that's all it can be here, my guess would be that it's about 25,000 Cybertrucks,

15,000 Model Xs and 10,000 Model Ss. The X has historically sold better than the S,

that's why I'm going with a 15, 10 split there. And the Cybertruck is likely selling about the

two of them combined, which means again, we are an order of magnitude off in the stated sales goal

for Cybertruck. And there's just no way to spin that positive. There's no, it just, it's bad news.

Like if I'm doing this podcast for 10 years, it's not, it's not always going to be good news,

right? This is, this is not good news. And I think it's a combination of three things.

One, the price. I've said this a bunch of times already. I just, I'm convinced this is the biggest

reason. If Tesla was selling a $60,000 dual motor Cybertruck with 300 miles of range,

I do think this would be a different story. Now, it, we probably wouldn't be at 250,000

trucks per year, but it would be markedly better than where it's at. Reason number two for Cybertruck's

struggles, the truck was already a polarizing vehicle by its design. Yes. But I believe, and I

think many of you would agree here that it got tagged as, for lack of a better way to say it,

the symbol of the CEO of Tesla amidst the blowback to his extracurricular activities

earlier in the year. And while I do think the other four cars have been largely unaffected by that,

I do believe the Cybertruck has suffered for it fairly or not. And then reason number three,

in the bigger picture, I talked about this recently when the F-150 Lightning was discontinued by Ford.

I just think that the EV pickup truck market just hasn't developed, or at least it hasn't developed

like anybody, meaning Tesla, Ford, Chevy, et cetera, thought that it would. So it's not great.

So much went into the Cybertruck and it was supposed to be, it was supposed to be doing,

I mean, think about if it was doing a quarter million units per year, how much better Tesla's

numbers would look. For one thing, if they'd come anywhere close to that, they would have

met or exceeded last. They would not have suffered a sales decline for the second straight year. So

that's one way to look at it. It's just, it's not good. It is not good on the Cybertruck front.

Now, getting back to the bigger picture numbers, to zoom back out, this is the first time in a

long time that Tesla has ever truly faced some serious adversity as a company,

meaning in terms of their overall health, overall bottom line, they had been rolling ever since

they came out of the other side of Model 3's production hell in 2018. And finally, when that

happened in 2018, it was not long after that after many, many, many, well, basically the entire

company's existence to that point, which was 15 years, they became a profitable company.

They followed that up by doing the Model Y, which as we all well know, is the biggest

home run in the company's history. It's catapulted it to incredible heights by all metrics.

And they were rolling. Even after that, the Cybertruck drew a ton of interest at its unveiling,

obviously, as it hasn't panned out in the final sales numbers. But at the time,

it drew a ton of interest, which was a good thing at the time. Just everybody knew about the Cybertruck.

It was just free publicity for Tesla. And so that was a good thing at the time. They unveiled the

Tesla Semi, which, yes, has been on the road technically for a while now, but is only finally

going into proper mass production this year. And for quite a while there, Tesla literally

could not make cars fast enough. They were selling, I mean, do you guys remember not long ago? I mean,

it would have been about, I guess, well, now that we're in 26, it would have been about

three, maybe four years ago. I'd have to double check this, but it was either 2022, maybe it was

2022 was the kind of big window for it. Around 2022, when the wait time for a Model Y was

months and months and months, like it was like a six month wait time to get a Model Y.

Part of that, yes, part of that was the supply chain situation, but there was also insane demand

as well. So it was the good times were rolling and the wind is no longer at their backs. I mean,

not today. The winds change, right? The way the wind blows changes. For now, it is now a headwind,

a pretty stern headwind. The tax credit is gone. There are no new mass market consumer vehicles

coming from Tesla, no minivan, no boxy three row SUV, no hot hatch, no quote unquote model two,

meaning a compact sedan or a compact SUV for $25, $30,000. Elon and the Tesla team are betting it

all on autonomy and on humanoid robots. He's straight up said this. This is not me putting

words into his mouth. He's straight up said this. And in fairness, shareholders clearly support him

in that as they voted overwhelmingly in favor of his new compensation package with all of that laid

out on the table, that that was the direction the company was going. Here's what I worry about.

As a Tesla fan, as a car aficionado, as a somebody rooting for electric vehicles,

who loves electric vehicles, all of that, all of those things. I mean, again, it's the reason I

do this podcast. I love cars. I love electric cars. I love the cars Tesla makes. I want to see EVs

succeed. I want to see Tesla succeed. Here's what I worry about. What if cyber cab isn't a high volume

hit? Just like again, in other words, what if cyber cab is a miss the same way that, sorry to

say it, that the cyber truck's been a miss? I mean, Tesla's spinning up this revolutionary new

unboxed manufacturing process to pump out cars super fast. But what if there just isn't demand

for a million cybercabs per year or even close to that? Again, I'm not saying it's going to happen.

I'm just saying, what if, you know, this is, it's a bold stroke. We were, they're selling a car,

they're going to build a car with no inputs to, you know, it's, it's a, it's a bold move.

What if they run into regulatory hurdles, be it not just maybe in the United States, but anywhere?

Like what if in one of their major regions, whether it's the US, whether it's Europe,

what if they run into regulatory hurdles? I mean, Elon is betting on autonomy, spiking demand. He

told us that on, was either at the shareholder meeting or the last earnings call, which we're

pretty close to each other, but they're, they're betting on autonomy, causing a demand in a, a

spike in demand for the existing Tesla vehicle lineup. And maybe he's right about that. Here's

the thing, betting on Elon has historically made a lot of people a lot of money, whether it's

employees betting on him by joining the company and getting stock compensation or whether it's

shareholders betting on him by investing in the company and betting against him has historically

been a significantly losing proposition financially speaking, but boy, oh boy is the risk

really high right now. High reward, certainly that high risk, high reward. And by the way,

I'm not opposed to betting on autonomy and humanoid robots to be clear, not at all.

But as I have said before, I'll say it again here, I just continue to not understand why Tesla couldn't

do those things and continue to expand the vehicle lineup. Here's a new fact that just

became true. Tesla is no longer the number one electric car company in the world in terms of

vehicles delivered. That crown is now worn by BYD. BYD overtook them this year and BYD did it

while being politically shut out of a major market. That would be the US. Tesla is not

shut out of any market. They're selling cars everywhere they want to, but BYD came into the

rest of the world. Once they, once they started expanding outside of China, they came into the

rest of the world with competitive pricing. And here's the thing, a lot of different vehicle

types, in other words, a lot of different vehicle segments, a whole bunch of different options.

And let's be honest here, we got to be again, we can, I can be a Tesla optimist, but I got to

in 2025 and the results speak for themselves. In the same way, by the way, that I talked about it

on this podcast back after the Model 3 launched and after the Model 3 ramped up, so 2017, 2018,

I talked about it because it happened. The Model 3 ate the BMW 3 Series' launch, the Audi

A3's launch, the Mercedes C-Class, like it, do it, it did it to gas cars because it was,

you know, kind of the, there really were no other EVs at the time, but it is now, Tesla is now on

the receiving end of having their lunch eaten and BYD has done exactly that to Tesla in Europe

specifically. So it's, that's, that is why I'm worried that Tesla might have a tough time recovering

sales in Europe in 2026. We'll see, I mean, the new Model Y is in full production, fully available

all year, right? I, that was, that was certainly a part of the story in 2025 was Q1,

I mentioned it earlier already, but, you know, Q1 was quite a bit impacted by the Model Y

changeover from the Gen 1 to the Gen 2 version, and even, even Q2 was a bit affected as well

as they ramped up, but 2026, it's going to be really interesting to see what happens now that

Y3SX Cybertruck, all, nobody's ramping up, none of the vehicles, everything is, is full speed ahead,

so we'll see what happens, but again, it's, I just, I believe in my heart of hearts as not a

business person and not an engineer, so maybe my opinion is meaningless and well, I guess, I mean,

yeah, my, it is, my opinion is meaningless, but it's, it's how I feel and it's, I just feel that

Tesla could have kept pushing into autonomy and humanoid robots as they're doing while also making

new vehicles in new segments. Again, I'm just an idiot on a podcast, I'm not an, I'm not an

automotive executive, I don't have any real credentials in the automotive space, but we'll

see what happens, we'll see what happens this year and even next year, 2027 as well. This is not,

if you've been listening to the podcast for a while, this is not the first time that I have

expressed concern over the lack of new vehicles on Tesla's product roadmap, and unfortunately,

those Q4 and those overall 2025 numbers seem to provide a little bit of evidence or little,

little bit of kind of support for my concern, if you want, I guess support's not the right word,

but it's, again, I, I wish it wasn't the case, but here's to a great 2026 with all four vehicles,

again, all four, all five vehicles, geez, why am I saying four? All five vehicles fully available,

ready to go and CyberCab joining them in April to what extent kind of remains to be seen,

but then the other big piece of 2026 is hopefully full self-driving, unsupervised,

rolling out to all of our AI four cars before the end of the year.

This is Bill Daniels, the voice of Night Industries 2000, or KIT. You're listening to

Ride the Lightning, the Tesla unofficial podcast, happy electric motoring.

I can't believe we're already almost an hour and 15 minutes into this thing, but let's do a few

phone calls before we wrap up the podcast this week. Welcome to the Ride the Lightning hotline,

this is where you get a chance to call in and potentially be featured on an upcoming episode

of Ride the Lightning. If you've got a Tesla or EV question, comment, or discussion topic,

I would love to hear from you, please call in. So you might be wondering, well,

how do I do that? There are two easy ways to call in, either use your smartphone's built-in

voice recording software, use that to record a 90 second or less question, and then email that

file to me at teslapodcastatgmail.com, or you can take that same 90 second or less question and

call in and leave a message on the Ride the Lightning hotline. It's a toll-free number that

you can dial anytime, day or night. The number is 1-888-989-8752. The perhaps slightly easier to

remember version is 1-888-989-TSLA. And if you know someone special out there with an upcoming

birthday, anniversary, graduation, or some other special occasion, you can give them a unique gift

of recorded voices from friends and family telling them why they're special. The recordings can be

podcasted like I do or put onto a keepsake. Visit lifeonrecord.com to learn more. First up this

week is Pete from Indiana. Hey, Ryan. Pete from Zionsville, Indiana. Long time no call. Hey,

I was listening to your recent podcast with interest, especially about the sunglasses approach

that Tesla may be implementing for the FSD. I think there's a bigger problem though. Geographically,

most of our country is, you know, zone three or above in terms of weather zones, which means we

get a lot of wind or weather. I'm not sure that necessarily means most of the population, but

certainly geographically most of the country. So, you know, today I'm driving in and it says my left

pillar camera is blocked and that's because there's frost or snow covering the camera. So,

that's a huge problem for us that live through winter conditions. There's no way FSD is going

to work on certain days when there's snow or, you know, heavy conditions. So, my question is,

is Tesla working on something? I suspect they are. My suggestion would be to have a cold weather

package where they would either warm the camera or have some kind of, you know, wiper fluid

equivalent that can clean off the camera so the vision remains intact even in the worst conditions.

Let me know what you think. As always, best to you and your family and your friends. Have a great

2026. Pete, how are you, sir? It's been a minute. It's great to hear from you and I wish you a

happy new year as well. I like your idea of a cold weather package. Now, fortunately,

the front camera array has a heater built into it and the B pillar cameras do too, at least in the

in the AI 4 cars. That leaves the front bumper camera on the newest Teslas, the repeaters on

the fenders for everybody and the rear view camera. So, I've definitely heard of folks getting the

rear camera obstructed by snow slash ice dirt mud. So, seemingly, the solution there is to do what

Tesla did on the front bumper cameras, build in a washer that can be activated at the touch of a

button or maybe on FSD it could activate automatically whenever the system senses an obstruction on the

lens. As for the repeater cameras, well, what do you do there? I'm honestly not sure. Since they're

already shielded from what's directly ahead of the car, I have an honest question. Do they even

need any heating element or other backup? I've personally, granted again, the only

adverse weather condition that I can really claim experience with is heavy rain. I've never had

them be unusable, meaning the repeater cameras specifically, even in heavy rain here in our

San Francisco winters. But again, I can't speak for snowy conditions. So again, your cold weather

package idea is a good one, Pete. And fortunately, it seems like Tesla has already quietly started

implementing the equivalent of a cold weather package on some of those other sensors. Thanks

for your call, as always. And speaking of FSD in the snow, here's Bill from Wisconsin.

Hey, Ryan, it's Bill from Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. I'm in the middle of listening to episode 543,

and while doing so, I'm having an experience that I wanted to share with your listeners.

For many of you, you may not have experienced this. Certainly, you probably haven't, Ryan, but

I started off this drive in freezing rain, and now the snow is coming down heavily.

I've been using FSD the entire time, and when I have to clean the windshield, which is frequently,

it'll complain that it can't see and that I should take over immediately. But other than that,

it is doing an amazing job. I feel safer in the Cybertruck in this weather than I would in just

about any other vehicle. It has been driving about five below. I have it on standard, and it's

driving about five below the posted speed limit in most places. In some cases, following other

traffic and other places on roads where there's no other traffic. How does the world not realize

what Tesla has done with this system? That's all I can say. Anyhow, tell Daisy and Lily,

give them my loves and my best regards to your wife and daughter. Take care, Ryan.

Bill, thanks as always for your call. I'm actually really glad that you called in about this,

because you're reminding me that this came up on our last monthly Patreon Zoom hangout

in early December, and one of the listeners on that call, I think if memory serves, it was Seth

Capello. Shout out to Seth. I believe he was talking about this as well. He also had noted

in our discussion how well FSD was doing in the snowy and wintery weather near him.

And so not only do I agree with you, Bill, about how more people should know about this, but here's

where my mind goes. This winter, we have FSD version 14. Last winter, we had version 13.

And those of us with AI4 cars have been lucky enough to see how much better 14 is than 13,

and what, therefore, one year of development has achieved. So, you can see where I'm going with

this, think about how much better the FSD system is likely to be next winter, in a year from now,

when we're on, well, maybe, presumably, version 15. So just, all that is to say, kind of keep

that in the back of your mind for next year, and it'll be fun to reflect back on how much better

the software has gotten when the snow comes back around in a year from now. Happy electric

motoring, Bill. Thanks, as always, for calling in. I've got time for one more call this week.

It comes from Scott in New York. Hey, Ryan. I love the show. Ever listen every week. This is Scott

from New York. I drive a 2022 system model Y. And I know from your comments about FSD on the show

that you, like I do, use it a lot, upwards of 90% of your driving. So I have a question about that.

I have an annoyance, especially in the Northeast here at a rainy time of the year,

that every time I flick on FSD, the automatic wiper comes on. And sometimes there's ice on the

windshield, or it's just fog, and I don't actually want the wiper to come on. So for what I've seen,

I have two alternatives on the different steps to deactivate it. I press the control

turn off wiper, which is two steps, and then sweep it sweep it away back to the map of the

third step, or I press the steering wheel, scroll down to off and press it again to deactivate

the wiper. So I was wondering if there is a way in the settings to either toggle on or toggle off

the automatic wiper when activating FSD option. Are you familiar? Do you know what that is? Do

you have an easier walk around? Would love to hear your comments. Thanks. Keep up the show.

Thanks for calling in, Scott. I'm afraid I don't have a solution for you on this, but this is one

of those situations where I wanted to play your call in case anybody else out there has a clever

workaround that I'm not aware of. Windshield wiper functionality continues to be the bane of

many Tesla owners' existence, and I'll be honest, I'd put myself in that group with you. I'm no

software engineer, but I guess I would say it's just humorously strange to me that Tesla can build

such a fantastic and continuously evolving self-driving system, but yet our windshield wipers

act as if they're possessed by trickster demons who just like to mess with us. I got, not too long

ago, I got a dry wipe at night and it was perfectly clear outside, no rain, the windshield was totally

clean, and I just couldn't help but laugh when I was just driving and that happened. So let's see

if anybody out there can help you out, Scott, and by helping you, extension, helping all of us

on this one. Take care, and I appreciate your call. I appreciate everybody who takes the time to call

in and either leave a message on the Ride the Lightning Hotline or record a question and send

it in. So thank you to everybody who called in this week, and I promise you on next week's episode

we will get to even more of the Ride the Lightning Hotline phone calls. And as my voice starts to

go here, I'll just tell you about what I've been up to with my car. Well, not too much this week,

the funniest car thing that I wanted to talk about real quick for 30 seconds, 60 seconds,

was an errand I was doing today. So I had tasked myself with cleaning out a bunch of junk from

the garage over the holiday break because it had just started to pile up in there, was just getting,

getting pretty unsightly. And so I made the arrangements ahead of time. I rented a pickup

truck to make a run to the city dump. And after picking up the truck and bringing it back to my

house, loading everything up, taking it to the dump, and then returning the truck, pretty simple

a thing. But man, in just in that short time, it made it so clear to me why the Cybertruck

engineering team decided to go with steer by wire on the Cybertruck. Because you have to spin the wheel

it just feels like a ridiculously dumb amount of times to get this truck, to get a regular

gas pickup truck to go anywhere. It's just silly. This in particular, this truck, it was a pretty

new Chevy Silverado, just the, you know, I'm sure bottom of the line, two door regular cab,

you know, nothing, nothing fancy. But my goodness, it was just, it was almost comical how much

steering wheel movement was required to get that car to do anything. I was so happy when I got back

in my car after dropping the truck off, I was like, Oh, finally, a car that actually can handle it

easily handled. But anyway, so yes, that clearly the Cybertruck engineering team, they went and

drove a bunch of existing trucks on the market, and probably came very quickly to the same conclusion

that I very quickly came to. And that's where steer by wire came from. And we should all be

thankful for the Tesla engineers, the Cybertruck engineering team for that. Here's an entertainment

recommendation for you for this week. The second season of one of my favorite shows on TV is back,

fallout on Prime Video. It's based on a video game. The adaptation is excellent. It's got Walt

and Goggins as one of the lead characters who's great in it, just like he's great in everything

he's in. So season two of fallout is is now airing week by week. So as of this recording,

there are three episodes up there. And I think I don't know if it's I can't remember if it's

going to be an eight episode or 10 episode season. But if that is of interest, and you've already

seen season one, this is a PSA that season two is rolling out now. And if you've never seen it,

and a funny but also decent drama post apocalyptic nuclear post apocalypse nuclear

Holocaust kind of show with survivors who've been living underground in vaults. And there's a

sort of evil corporation going on that it's a it's a good show. I definitely recommend it. If

you haven't seen it, you want to give it a try. Here's a pro tip of the week coming from Charlie

in Columbia, South Carolina, reminding us all about some money that some of us may have not yet

returned back to ourselves. Hey, Ryan, this is Charlie from Columbia, South Carolina,

wanted to put out a pro tip slash PSA for anybody that put down a $100 deposit on a

cyber truck like myself. I ended up getting a Y and never bought a cyber truck, but it was still

in my account for my reservation. And I just found out or realized that that $100 is actually

refundable. So anybody that put down $100 to order a cyber truck years ago, and if that money is

still there, you can go into your Tesla account online and request a refund. I did it yesterday

and got $100 back. So just thought I'd throw that out for anybody else out there that has

a reservation for cyber truck, but has not used it. You can get that money back. And if you still

want to buy a cyber truck, you can. But if not, you at least get your $100 back. Hope that helps.

Thanks. Thank you, Charlie. That is a good reminder slash PSA. Since there were over

two million cyber truck reservations, many of you no doubt had that $100 refundable

reservation in there as well. As I did, I'd already gotten mine back after I had made the

decision to buy the Model 3 performance instead. And by the way, I hope that this,

that pro tip of the week doesn't come off as me trying to dunk on the cyber truck or anything

this week. I actually, I can honestly say that I had the pro tip of the week slotted in. I picked

that out for the show before I'd done any of my notes for this week, but let alone found out what

the production and delivery numbers were. That's typically how I start the podcast each week,

by the way, is I'll make a new sheet of notes and I'll start by putting in by choosing a pro tip

of the week from my, my sort of running queue of them. And then I build out the rest of the

podcast from there based on all the week's news and all the phone calls that come in from you guys.

But yeah, not, not trying to, not trying to kick the cyber truck while, while, you know, I'm already,

while it's already bad news for cyber truck this week, that pro tip just happened to be

the next one in the queue. And hopefully it is useful to some of you because at this point,

if you aren't planning to purchase a cyber truck and you had put down a reservation

in the last, you know, a few years, well, here's a reminder, if you haven't already gotten that

hundred bucks back, you can log into your Tesla account on a desktop computer and do so. And if

anybody else out there has a good Tesla or EV pro tip of the week, I would love to hear it to add

to my own EV slash Tesla knowledge base and share it with everybody listening as well.

You can send in pro tips of the week, the same way that you send in regular ride the

lightning hotline calls. And I give you the two easy call in methods for that just a few minutes ago.

If you'll allow me a moment to mention a few friends of the podcast that might be useful to

you, including a new one started by a long time ride the lightning listener, a long time Tesla

owner, it's teslateacher.com, your own personal Tesla tutor. If you're new to Tesla or maybe

someone you know is new to Tesla, maybe you want to recommend this, maybe they're overwhelmed

by the touchscreen autopilot slash FSD or other endless features. Well, you're not alone. These

cars, as we know, are packed with incredible technology that takes time to master at tesla

teacher.com. Their experienced staff offers personalized in person tutoring right at your

vehicle. They cover every model from 2015 through 2026 answering your questions while guiding you

step by step. While certainly grok integration will make talking to your car even easier someday.

Until then, let the real experts help you build confidence today. They proudly serve the greater

San Francisco Bay area within a 150 mile radius of San Francisco. If you're looking for a great

gift, Tesla gift cards are available on their site ideal for any family member who's got a new

Tesla. So visit teslateacher.com now to book a driving session or grab a gift card. Check them out.

Also abstract ocean, my old friends there. They've got so many great aftermarket accessories, so many

awesome products for various Teslas as well as the Rivians, etc. A lot of lighting kits interior

and exterior, great puddle lights. I'm a big fan of cool puddle lights rather than just the

regular old light that the car comes with. Get a cool logo shining down onto onto the ground

when you open your doors. But yeah, different colors, different logos, etc. And that's lighting

is just one thing. I mean, they've got the custom fit tempered glass screen protectors made of

gorilla glass. So much stuff. You got to take a look abstract ocean.com. Take everything you like,

put it in your online shopping cart, then use the coupon code RTL podcast at checkout to get 15%

off of your first order. That coupon code again is all one word and it's RTL podcast. The snap

plate and snap plate plus available for all five Teslas as well as Rivians. And I think they've

even got the Chevy bolt in there blazer. I think they've they're covering a lot of EVs these days,

the snap plate or the stronger snap plate plus available at every amp.com slash RTL or just

click the link in the episode description and whichever snap plate you choose for your vehicle,

make sure that when you get to checkout, you use the coupon code RTL to get a nice little discount.

The snap plate and snap plate plus are made in the made here in the USA with recycled plastics

and stainless steel reinforcements as well. Nice signature minimalist aesthetic that'll

blend in beautifully with the front end of your vehicle. And if you ever want to take it off,

because I don't know you're maybe you're detailing it, maybe you're taking it to a cars and coffee,

it will it will come off without leaving anything behind the front plate mounts that Tesla includes

with your car. They use automotive tape to stick to the front of your car. So they're not coming off

without a serious hassle. So I recommend the snap plate or the stronger snap plate plus

at every amp.com slash RTL. And don't forget the coupon code RTL as well.

If you're in are going to be in the greater San Francisco Bay area with your Tesla or other EV

or other car that you love, make sure to make an appointment ahead of time and bring it to the

professional detailers at immaculate reflections. The website is irdetailing.com. There is a

discount available for ride the lightning listeners. Just make sure to mention that

you're a ride the lightning listener and would like the discount when you reach out through

the website to book in any services that you end up wanting to do, whether that's ceramic coating,

paint protection film, or paint correction. Any of that, all that, some of that,

the folks at immaculate reflections, meaning Jeff the owner, will work with you and work with your

budget and get your car looking better than it ever has. I am living proof or at least both of my

Teslas are proof of how awesome the talent is at immaculate reflections and how good your car can

look in the hands of a professional detailer. The Patreon, I mentioned it earlier on the show,

I'll mention it again here real quick. That is how you can choose to support the podcast if you like

and my goal is to, at some point, maybe, maybe this is the week, maybe not yet, maybe down the

road, but my goal is to eventually earn your Patreon support. This podcast is free, always has

been, always will be, but it certainly takes me a lot of time, a lot of energy, research,

enthusiasm, love, all that goes into it, so if you see fit to support me, you can do so on my

Patreon page, which you can either click the link in the episode description or it's Patreon.com

slash Tesla podcast. You can support starting at just five bucks a month and for that five dollars

a month, you will get an ad-free episode and you'll get early access to that ad-free episode

every single week. Step up to that most popular tier at ten bucks a month and you'll get the

early access ad-free and all 175 and counting of those weekly lightning round bonus mini episodes

and then the support tiers, there are more that go on up from there and the perks and bonuses

all stack up. You can find out more on my Patreon page at Patreon.com slash Tesla podcast.

Social media wise, if you'd like to follow me on X and or on Instagram, I have the same username on

both and that username is DMC underscore Ryan. If you'd like to email me for any really any reason

related to Teslas or EVs, my email address is Tesla podcast at gmail.com and finally I want to

wish a happy new year and say a big thank you to the top tier Patreon backers. I'll start with the

maximum plaid crew who by the way are invited every month to our monthly Patreon zoom hangout.

Anybody at the maximum plaid tier or higher also anybody that makes a new or upgraded pledge

at any point during the month gets a courtesy thank you invite to the next hangout but it's the

maximum plaid crew on up that gets invited every single month and we always have a great

conversation so the the first one of 2026 here for January will be happening this Saturday

January 10th hopefully by the time most of you hear this the invites will have gone out

but anyway I want to say hello and thank you and happy new year to the newest maximum plaid backer

Eric Harbert Eric thank you so much and thank you to the rest of the maximum plaid backers

Jonathan Wales Cameron Clark Daniel Grummer Seth Capello Nick and Tony the Galpin family

Ryan from New York City Darren Nicholl Cos Barnes Patrick Wisnesky Gil Cabrera Todd Badger

Joe Edgel Kevin Yank the Tesla owners club of San Joaquin Valley Will Steadman Jeremy Harris

Chris Beach Tom Mills Cory O'Donnell Aaron John Cody Joel Sap Paul Casarino Chris Osborne KB

Adam Lavoie Jason Chalukis Travis Krenzel Bruce Otterstein Tom Behan Josh Pennington

John from Cream Ridge New Jersey Dustin Hart Derek Finley Charles Clement Damon Klein Jeff

Brown Jerry Slinger Kenneth Corbett Brian Bertoglio Kim Bae Troy Severs Chip Hooper

Matt Chinander Robert Moran Rob Christopher Mann and Michael Williams

next up happy new year and thank you goes out to the Roadster in Space to your backers

these folks get all the perks I've already talked about plus a one-on-one monthly hangout with me

should they elect to take it and several of them do and we always have a great time chatting

so thank you very much to Pete White, Lyle Austin, Steve Radspinner, Fernando Cordero,

Lawton from Chicago, Sean Knightig, Neil Weaver, Jackson Wallace, Rolf and Jennifer Evers, Howard

Anthony Smith, Victoria Aya Caveto, Tesla Hitchhiker 42, Carol Weston, Robert from near Philly,

American Home Contractors, Doug Carey, Michael Gallo and Tony Figueroa and finally last but

certainly not least the grandfathered in plaid level supporters huge thanks goes out to George

Cassiopo, Logan Willis, Peter Chalet, Eric Randolph, Dori and Steve Guberman, the Tesla owners of

owners club of Taiwan there we go Ron Lee, Charlie Gillespie, Jeff Angwin, Chase Cabaneas,

the Lydia family, Aaron Altshule, Jared Brown, Jerome Strack, Jamie Dalton, Mike and Barber

from Louisville, Matt Nixon, the Tesla owners club of Wisconsin, Ish, not Elon Musk in quotes,

Peter and the Bear Boys of Colorado, B-A-E-R hello bear family well that'll wrap it up for the first

of what I guess will be 52 episodes that's the plan however many Sundays there are in

2026 there are 52 weeks I don't know if they're the same number of Sundays this year I'm not

going to go bothered to count but my plan is to be with you every single Sunday with a new

episode specifically at 9 a.m. Eastern 6 a.m. Pacific as I've been fortunate enough to to be

able to do here for the last 10 plus years with you I'm looking forward to a new year of Tesla

fun and EV fun again we've got the Roadster Re-Reveal we've got the Cybercab launch

we've got the Rivian R2 launch this year I mean hey not that I'll ever get to

sit behind the wheel or drive it but it'll be interesting to see Ferrari's first EV the

Electrica like that I was talking about earlier that it'll be a fun year in the Tesla and EV

space I have no doubt about that so stick with me all year long for all of it I will be with you

right here every Sunday again 9 a.m. Eastern 6 a.m. Pacific for new episodes and with that

happy new year happy electric motoring and I'll see you back here next week

you

Elon Musk people don't like Elon Musk the guy founded PayPal and Tesla and people are like

yeah but he's a troll and a bad dad I'm like so is mine he did nothing to fight climate change

also have you been in a Tesla have you been in a Tesla my buddy let me drive his Tesla I laughed

out loud at how fast it went been clinically depressed my entire life on dozens of medications

in a Tesla for 13 seconds cured forever I mean I think a Tesla is the most fun thing

you could possibly buy ever that's what it's meant to be our goal is to make it's

it's not exactly a car it's actually a thing to maximize enjoyment it's maximum fun

About this episode

Ryan McCaffrey shares his annual predictions for Tesla and the EV market in 2026, reflecting on his eight years as an EV driver. He reviews his 2025 predictions, scoring himself on accuracy, before diving into new forecasts, including the performance of the Cybertruck, the upcoming Roadster, and the anticipated Model Y Long Range. The episode also covers Tesla's recent production and delivery numbers, highlighting challenges faced in 2025, and features listener calls discussing FSD performance in winter conditions and wiper functionality.

Accelerate Auto base price battery and drive unit extended service agreement battery degradation crossover SUV customizable downforce drive unit failure EV Gigafactory

Original notes

I make my annual Tesla predictions for the new year, bringing other EVs into the conversation this year as well. Plus: Tesla posts its Q4 and full-year 2025 numbers, and more!

If you enjoy the podcast and would like to support my efforts, please check out my Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/teslapodcast and consider a monthly or (10% discounted!) annual pledge. Every little bit helps, and you can support for just $5 per month. And there are stacking bonuses in it for you at each pledge level, like early access to each episode at the $5 tier and the weekly Lightning Round bonus mini-episode (AND the early access!) at the $10 tier! And NO ADS at every Patreon tier!

Also, don't forget to leave a message on the Ride the Lightning hotline anytime with a question, comment, or discussion topic for next week's show! The toll-free number to call is 1-888-989-8752.

INTERESTED IN A FLEXIBLE EXTENDED WARRANTY FOR YOUR TESLA? Be a part of the future of transportation with XCare, the first extended warranty designed & built exclusively for EV owners, by EV owners. Use the code Lightning to get $100 off their "One-time Payment" option! Go to www.xcelerateauto.com/xcare to find the extended warranty policy that's right for you and your Tesla.

P.S. Get 15% off your first order of awesome aftermarket Tesla accessories at AbstractOcean.com by using the code RTLpodcast at checkout. Grab the SnapPlate front license plate bracket for any Tesla at https://everyamp.com/RTL/ (don't forget the coupon code RTL too!).

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