Toyota is a huge car company that sells a lot of vehicles worldwide. When people talk about Toyota affecting the car market, they mean its pricing and supply decisions can change what other brands and buyers experience.
Honda makes a lot of popular everyday cars. If it’s part of a segment about the car market, it usually means its pricing and availability are affecting what buyers pay.
Audi is a luxury car brand from Germany. In a car-market discussion, it’s often included because its pricing and sales trends reflect what’s happening in the premium market.
They’re talking about what’s happening with brand-new cars—like how many are available and how pricing is behaving. Used cars can be a different story, so they’re separating the two.
CarEdge is a website that helps people shop for cars and try to get better deals. The ad is basically saying they’ll help you find and evaluate options without as much effort from you.
If inventory stays about the same but day’s supply drops, it means cars are moving faster than before. That usually points to stronger demand or slower replenishment.
Withholding inventory means the brand isn’t sending as many cars to dealer lots as they could. That can make cars sell out faster and make it harder for shoppers to find the exact car they want.
“Sales year over year are down” compares sales in the current period to the same period in the previous year. If sales are down across brands, it can indicate demand softness even while day’s supply suggests inventory is tight—helping explain why the hosts are skeptical about a pure “sell-out” story.
“Day’s supply” tells you how long it would take dealers to sell all the cars they currently have on the lot, assuming sales keep happening at the same daily rate. If it’s low, it usually means cars are selling faster than they’re piling up, which can help keep prices from dropping.
“Sales were down” means fewer cars were sold than before. If that happens while there are still lots of cars available, dealers may need to offer better deals to move inventory.
Inventory just means how many cars are sitting on lots or available to sell. If there are more cars than usual, dealers may have to compete more, which can make deals easier to find.
“Negotiable” means how much you can bargain on price. If lots of cars are available and they’re not selling fast, dealers often have more reason to make deals.
Inventory turnover is how fast cars sell off the lot. If turnover is slow, the brand or dealers may need to discount or change supply to avoid having too many cars sitting around.
The idea is that a company holds back cars instead of sending them to dealers. If there are fewer cars available, prices can stay higher—but it can also make the market data look misleading.
They’re saying sales dropped by about 20%. If sales fall while inventory stays high, it usually means cars aren’t moving as fast and the brand may need to change strategy.
Chevrolet is mentioned as one of several brands being compared using the same inventory metric. It helps show which brands have more cars sitting around versus selling quickly.
Dealer inventory is just the cars dealers have on their lots. If the factory sends fewer cars, the lots can get emptier and it can look like the market is “tight” even if demand is similar.
Concept
inventory vs sales pace
They’re noticing something that doesn’t line up: some brands look like they have less stock, but overall there are more cars available than last month. That can happen when sales speed changes or when factories change how many cars they send out.
Stellantis is the big company that owns several car brands. The hosts are suggesting that some of those brands may be sending too many cars to dealers, which can affect pricing and availability.
The Dodge Ram is a large pickup truck made for work and everyday driving. People use it for hauling cargo, towing trailers, and carrying gear. It may be mentioned in a podcast when talking about how the company that makes it organizes its different truck and car brands.
“Artificially constraining supply” refers to limiting how many cars reach dealers (or reach the market) even when demand exists. The goal is often to keep inventory low so the brand can maintain pricing power and reduce discounting.
“Pricing power” is the ability of a manufacturer or dealer network to sell cars at higher prices without losing too many sales. It’s strongest when supply is tight and demand remains steady, limiting how much buyers can push for discounts.
Allocations are how many cars a brand decides to send to each dealership. If a dealer gets fewer cars than it wants, there’s less inventory on the lot, and prices tend to stay higher because buyers have fewer options.
“Day supply” is basically how many days the cars on dealer lots would last if sales keep happening at the same rate. A big change in that number can mean inventory is getting tighter—or that the numbers being reported may not reflect reality.
They’re saying the car companies might hold back cars from dealerships on purpose. If dealers don’t have cars to sell, they can’t bargain as much on price.
Car companies don’t always send every dealer the same number of cars. If a dealer doesn’t take what they’re offered, they may get fewer cars later, which can make cars harder to find.
They’re blaming Toyota’s lower sales on the new RAV4 not being available yet. When a car is getting updated, there can be a gap where dealers don’t have enough of the new ones to sell.
Kia is one of the car brands they’re talking about while discussing dealer inventory and pricing. They’re using Kia’s numbers to support their point about how the market is behaving.
It’s basically a way to measure how “full” car lots are compared to how fast cars are selling. If there are fewer days of cars sitting on lots, dealers usually have less reason to discount, so prices can stay higher.
“Negotiability” is how much you can realistically bargain on the price. If lots are tight and cars are selling quickly, dealers tend to be less willing to move on price.
They mention Subaru to point out that sales weren’t strong. The hosts are using that as evidence in their debate about whether the inventory and pricing indicators are telling the truth.
Concept
inventory day supply vs sales rate
This segment contrasts inventory levels with the sales pace (“sales rate”). Even if inventory rises, day supply can fall if cars are selling more slowly than before—because the calculation depends on how quickly inventory is moving.
Dealers and analysts use “days of supply” to guess how long the current stock will last. If it’s more days, it usually means cars are not selling as fast and you may see more deals.
The Audi A6 is a luxury car model from Audi. Here it’s mentioned because one particular A6 has been sitting on the lot for a very long time, which can affect what kind of deal you might get.
A “transparency score” is a dealer-rating metric tied to how clearly and consistently a dealership presents information online (often including pricing, vehicle details, and disclosures). Higher transparency can make it easier for shoppers to compare offers and may correlate with smoother sales processes.
Term
new and used vehicles
New and used cars don’t always sell at the same pace. Here, they’re mixing both together when they talk about the median days listed, so it’s a combined picture of turnover.
Looking at the “distribution” of inventory age (e.g., how much is 30–90 days old vs. 90+ days old) helps diagnose whether a dealer’s stock is fresh or aging. A larger share of older inventory can indicate pricing pressure, slower demand, or mismatched vehicle selection.
Negative equity is when you owe more on your current car than it’s worth. A “cycle” means this problem keeps happening when you trade in and finance the difference again, making it harder to get ahead.
This is when you finance a car for about 7 years instead of a shorter time. It can make the monthly payment feel smaller, but you usually pay more interest overall and you can get stuck with a loan balance that’s bigger than the car’s value.
J.D. Power is a company that does research about cars and consumer behavior. Here, the host is using their study to back up the points about how common long car loans are.
Loan originations are basically new car loans that get started. If a certain percentage of those loans are 84 months, it means long-term financing is becoming pretty common.
Instead of paying off a car loan in a shorter time, you pay it over more years. That usually makes the monthly payment smaller, but you can end up paying more overall and it can be tough to sell or trade the car later.
“Trade it out” means getting rid of your current car and getting a new one. If you do it before you’ve paid down the loan much, you may still owe a lot compared to what the car is worth.
Leases are contracts where you pay to use a vehicle for a set term rather than fully owning it. The speaker argues that, for people who want to get out after a few years, leasing can better match the time horizon and reduce the risk of being stuck with negative equity when trading.
“Upside down” means you owe more money on the car than it’s worth right now. If you try to switch cars, you may need to pay extra out of pocket to cover the gap.
Rolling negative equity means you don’t pay off the gap when you switch cars—you add it to the new loan. That makes the new loan bigger, so your payment can go up and the problem can repeat.
An 84-month loan is a car loan stretched out to about 7 years. It can make the monthly payment look smaller, but you usually pay more interest overall and it can be harder to get out of the loan early.
Loan term length refers to how many months/years you spread the payments over (e.g., 84 months vs shorter terms). The host argues that longer terms increase the chance borrowers will want to exit the vehicle sooner, which can worsen the affordability cycle.
Rolling into the next purchase is when you don’t pay off your old car loan before getting a new one. Instead, the leftover debt gets added to the new loan, which can make the new car deal much more expensive.
Concept
bank is going to say no
This describes lenders tightening approval criteria when deals become too risky—such as financing amounts that rely on inflated trade-in values or rolled-in debt. When lenders refuse these structures, buyers may be forced to bring cash or reduce the financed amount.
Loan-to-value ratio is basically how much of the car’s value the loan covers. If it’s very high, the lender is taking on more risk because the car might not be worth enough to cover the loan later.
An affordability crisis refers to the situation where car prices, interest rates, and/or financing terms make monthly payments too expensive for many buyers. In this context, it’s tied to how lenders and dealers structure deals (like rolling negative equity) and how supply/demand affects pricing power.
Market day supply is a way to describe how many cars are sitting on lots compared to how fast people are buying them. If there are fewer cars than buyers want, prices stay high; if there are lots of cars, deals get better.
Out-the-door price is the full total you’ll pay, not just the sticker price. It usually includes taxes and fees, so it’s the number you should compare between deals.
Topic
new car sales go down because they've become unaffordable
This segment ties declining new car sales to affordability pressures rather than demand alone. It’s a market discussion about how higher prices, financing costs, and trade-in debt can reduce the number of buyers who can realistically purchase new vehicles.
Edmunds is a car research website. They publish reports and charts about car-buying trends, including how often people are trading in cars that still have loan debt.
This is about how many people are trading in a car that’s still worth less than they owe. If that’s common, a lot of buyers are carrying extra debt into their next purchase.
They’re using a simple benchmark—about one in three buyers—to show how common it is to be underwater on a trade-in. If that number climbs, more people are starting their next loan with extra debt.
Concept
monthly payment vs total cost of the car
People often shop by the monthly payment, but that doesn’t tell you the full story. The total cost depends on interest and how long you finance the car, so you can end up paying much more than you think.
Leasing is like renting a car for a few years. You pay for the car’s “use” during that time, and at the end you usually return it or buy it for a set price.
“96 months” means the loan lasts 8 years. Even if the payment looks manageable, the total cost is usually higher because you’re paying interest for longer.
The interest rate is the “fee” the lender charges for letting you borrow money. Higher interest rates make the car cost more overall, even if the monthly payment seems similar.
This means people shop mainly for a monthly payment they can live with. But if you stretch the loan or pay a higher rate, the car can end up costing a lot more overall.
Car and Driver is a well-known car magazine. In this segment, they’re saying they tested the CarEdge AI tool and wrote about it in their magazine. That matters because it suggests the idea was checked by people who review cars for a living.
An AI buying agent is like a digital helper that looks for car deals and talks to dealers for you. Instead of you calling around, it can compare prices and try to get a better offer. The goal is to make buying a car less time-consuming and potentially cheaper.
Shopping lots of dealers means getting price quotes from many dealerships instead of just one. That helps you see what the car should cost and gives you leverage to negotiate. The more quotes you compare, the harder it is for a dealer to overcharge you.
Concierge car buying is when someone helps you buy a car for you. Instead of you doing all the searching and negotiating, they handle a lot of the work. Here, they’re saying it’s still available alongside their AI tool.
A paywall means you can’t read the full article unless you subscribe or pay. The host is saying they had to use a link to get to the article, but it wasn’t free to view. It’s just about access, not the car-shopping concept itself.
They’re saying some creators start making videos more for profit than for helping viewers. When that happens, viewers can feel like the content isn’t as genuine.
This describes a consumer-first approach to automotive media: focusing on how to evaluate cars, understand trade-offs, and make better purchase decisions. It contrasts with the earlier critique that some channels drift into more self-serving or monetization-driven content.
An “educated customer” is someone who does their homework before buying. They know what the car should cost and what to ask, so the dealer can’t take advantage as easily.
This phrase refers to deceptive or manipulative sales tactics—like steering buyers with misleading claims, hiding fees, or downplaying trade-in/financing details. The host uses it to contrast traditional dealer behavior with a more transparent, informed buying process.
It’s a saying that means once people learn something, you can’t un-teach it. Here, it implies car shoppers will keep getting better at researching and negotiating.
It’s a way of saying that a few things usually cause most of the effects. For example, a small number of problems can create most of the headaches people talk about.
Concept
94-6 rule
It’s a similar idea to the 80/20 rule, just with different numbers. It suggests a small group of causes can explain most of what you see.
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It's noon here in Vintner City,
New Jersey in our nation's capital, Washington, D.C.
And this is Car Edge Live for Monday, April 20th,
with your host, me, Ray,
sitting right here in my living room in Vintner
and Zach hanging out in Washington, D.C.
How are you today, handsome? How was your weekend?
Do you have fantastic pops?
Great, we'll be back here with you.
It is 420 April 20th.
Thanks everyone for tuning in
and spending some of your Monday with me and my dad.
Had a great weekend. Hope you did as well.
Today's show, Dad.
Lexus, Toyota, Audi, and Honda.
They're screwing the car market.
We're going to look at the latest data from Cox Automotive,
showing the market day supply.
And it is shocking, confounding in many ways to me
what's going on on the new car side of things.
So we're going to break that down in just a moment
before we do a friendly reminder.
Today's show is brought to you by caredge.com.
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Check out caredge.com to learn more.
Appreciate all the feedback, comments, and information shared
with us to help make caredge.com a better and better place.
And Dad, one final note before we jump into the show.
Today's Boston Marathon Day,
and a new course record was just set.
Sub-202, new course record of the Boston Marathon.
Dad, that's four-minute and 30-second miles,
a little bit faster than that.
Do you think you could run a four-minute and 30-second mile?
Let me think on that.
No.
No, I don't think I'd run a 20-minute mile at this point in my life.
But no.
No, why would I want to?
I'm not saying you'd want to.
I was just curious if you think you could.
Day's supply falls in March after elevated readings in January
and February.
I'm excited.
We've got some Honda dealers in the chat with us as well.
So, Dad, I think these brands, Lexus, Toyota, Audi, and Honda,
they're screwing the car market right now.
And here's why.
We have actually seen inventory levels stay relatively flat.
They're down or they're up, actually,
just a little bit month over month.
But day's supply has gone down to 79 days,
and there are some brands in particular
who are going to jump right to it.
Those four that I named at the beginning of the show.
Honda with a 52-day supply,
Audi with a 47-day supply in Toyota,
and Lexus with 36-day supplies.
These are the brands, Dad,
that are withholding inventory from their dealers the most
or, conversely, selling out of cars left and right,
and they just can't replace them.
Now, what gives me confidence that they're not selling out of cars
left and right and can't replace them
is we looked at all the sales data.
And sales year over year are down at all of these brands.
And some of them, like Audi, for example,
down upwards of 20% Lexus Toyota
and Honda sales are down year over year,
not nearly as much.
However, Dad, their day's supply keeps creeping lower.
Can you explain to us what day's supply is?
Explain to us what these numbers mean?
And do you agree with my analysis here
that there are some car brands that are artificially keeping
their day's supply low
so that they have more pricing power with would-be shoppers?
Well, I guess we should start with the last question first.
Yes.
Okay, yeah.
I mean, Toyota Lexus and Honda have been doing that
for quite some time now,
where they have done a much better job
of matching their inventory to the amount of demand
that there is at any given time
so that they don't end up with a large day's supply.
And what is the day's supply of cars?
Well, that's the number of days it would take
to sell the remaining inventory on hand
based on the current daily sales rate.
So that's a measure of how quickly dealers are selling cars.
And let me say one thing if I may.
Yeah, please.
You know, I read that headline, I read that article,
and I don't believe it.
And here's what I don't believe.
Sales were down in January, February, and March.
Inventory is up slightly,
and yet day's supply has somehow shrunk from 94 to 79 days,
or whatever, and how can that math math?
Sales are down, inventory's up.
Day's supply has gone down.
How?
Please, can you explain that one to me?
No, so I'll pull up on the screen.
Apologies for being distracted for a second there.
I was getting last month's data pulled up here, Dad.
February, new vehicle inventory,
stable headlines on even reality.
So you can see here, this was last month.
And this is really important to understand here.
So last month, the auto industry
had a 92 days supply of inventory
while sitting on 2.85 million vehicles in inventory.
Now, we know sales for the industry
were down in the month of March.
Now, they were down year over year,
so that could be a little bit of a breakthrough
in our analysis here.
That being said, we saw inventory increase
by 40,000 vehicles.
So there are 40,000 more new cars for sale nationwide right now,
yet the day's supply dropped by 13 days.
Now, that's surprising because that would suggest
that there's a higher velocity of vehicles being sold
or fewer vehicles being introduced
as new inventory to dealerships.
Now, no matter how you really slice this,
it sounds like it doesn't make sense,
which is why I go back to, there are certain brands
in particular, Dad, and let's hone in on Audi
for a moment here.
Yes.
Audi sales we know.
Year over year down in the toilet.
They're really bad.
They're really, really, really bad.
The thing that we look at and the thing that
all consumers should look at to try and understand
how negotiable a car is.
Not necessarily if it's a fair deal
or a bad deal or anything, but how much leverage you have
going into that negotiation with the dealership
is day's supply of inventory because it tells you
how fast the inventory is turning over.
I do not believe for a second, Dad,
that Audi has a 47 days supply of inventory.
And the reason I'm saying they're screwing the car market
is because if they do have a 47 days supply of inventory,
it is 100% because they have withheld inventory.
That's the only thing they could possibly do.
Well, go back to the months before
and what was their day's supply of inventory?
And it was a hell of a lot more than 47.
It was 85.
Okay.
And their sales are in the toilet.
Their sales were off 20%.
So we're going to spend a lot of time on this
because it does not make sense.
So what you're looking at right now is last month.
This is the last month's snapshot.
And this is saying that Audi had an 85 days supply
Chevrolet with an 84, Infinity 83, Honda 59 Toyota 41,
and Lexus at 38.
And then let's come over to this month.
So now we're looking at the current data.
Chevrolet somehow went from an 86, excuse me,
an 85 days supply to a 67 days supply.
Infinity somehow went from an 83 days supply
to a 67 days supply.
Honda went from 59 days supply to 52 days supply.
We had Audi miraculously go from an 85 days supply
to a 47 days supply.
Toyota had a 41 days supply.
Now they're out of 36 days supply.
And Lexus had a 48 days supply.
And now they're out of 36 days supply.
It ain't making sense, y'all.
It is not making sense.
And the only thing that can rationalize this for me, Dad,
is that the manufacturers have stopped sending vehicles
to their dealers as inventory.
But then you look at the highest level number there,
and it is that there are more new cars in inventory today
than there were a month ago.
It could be that brands like Stellantis' brands,
like Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, some of those brands,
are over flooding their dealers with inventory.
So it could be that that's what's happening.
But Dad, the only thing that I can look at here
and say with confidence is that these manufacturers
are intentionally reducing the amount of inventory
they're giving to their dealers artificially constraining supply
so that they can retain their pricing power
and reduce the negotiability of their new cars.
That should be a headline that's blast out everywhere this morning.
Yeah, but some of it doesn't make...
Yes, I would suggest that Audi dealers
have turned down allocations and asked Audi
to withhold sending them cars.
And Audi as a brand has probably done that to some degree
in order to bring the day supply of cars down
or what appears to be the day supply of cars down.
But their sales were off...
What, was it 20% last month?
So even if you're not feeding them any cars,
they're not selling, okay?
They are in the toilet as far as sales are concerned.
Audi dealers were screaming that sales are horrible.
Prices are too high.
So how...
It just...
You know, I'm not real good at math.
You know that.
And I've explained that to people forever.
I'm not real good at math,
but I am pretty good at common sense.
And common sense suggests that somebody's cooking the books here, okay?
Because you don't have your sales decline as much as Audi has.
And then suddenly your day supply has improved
from 85 day supply of cars to 47.
And the dealers still don't have any leverage
because nobody's coming in to buy the damn product.
So common sense just says that these numbers are
as fictitious as me being 6'6".
Okay?
And by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
I'm probably five, five and a half today.
So if there's just in my...
This is all in my opinion.
But none of this, this doesn't make any sense.
For me, Dad, it continues.
The only thing that can rationalize it is that the manufacturers
are intentionally withholding inventory
from their dealer partners.
And there is a rational reason why they would do that.
The dealers get to choose if they want to take inventory or not.
You've shared so many stories from your career
where you had manufacturer reps who are your area reps,
your manufacturer rep saying,
hey, take these cars from us, take these cars from us.
And you're already overloaded.
You already have so many cars.
You don't want to get any more new vehicles.
But then they threaten things like,
well, if you want future allocation,
you need to take these vehicles.
What's happening right now where the dealers are withholding
and not taking on the allocation.
And ultimately what that does then is it reduces supply
and demand we know is down significantly.
That headline, Audi sales down a third
from where they had been historically.
Even Toyota sales were off.
Honda sales were off significantly year over year.
But Toyota sales are off because of the new RAV4.
They don't have them yet.
They don't have so many of them.
For sure. That's super fair.
But Dad, it doesn't matter.
I mean, like Subaru,
let's actually hone in on Subaru for a second here.
So in the current month,
Subaru's day supply of inventory is 77.
We'll go back a month and Subaru's day supply was 87.
It's every single brand seemingly on this list.
Kia was at 89.
Now what is Kia at 75?
Every single brand on this list that for the most part
is showing a significant decline in the day supply of inventory,
which again is the primary and leading indicator
for negotiability.
And so the only thing I can point my finger at
is the manufacturer and the dealers corroborating here
to withhold supply so that they have more pricing power.
That's the only thing that I can point out
to rationalize what's going on right now.
Well, I'm glad you can point it then.
And I think that's all BS.
I'm just telling you.
I think it's there.
Come on.
We know Subaru sales were off.
We know how the sales are off.
We know inventory as a whole has gone up
yet industry as a whole day supply has gone down
based on a sales rate that is lower than what it was last year.
None of this, I mean, just applying the common sense rule to this,
none of this makes any sense at all.
None of the math maths.
And if you went to your handy dandy carriage car search
and you looked up some alleys,
okay, where they only have a 45 day supply now,
you'll see that these things have been sitting for hundreds of days.
And ladies and gentlemen,
I haven't gone to the car edge car search to verify this,
but I just have a feeling I could be right.
One of the things that I learned growing up in the Philadelphia area,
and I don't know why because they didn't have a lot of bulls in Philadelphia,
but my God, I could smell BS.
And maybe it's because of the size of my nose.
I don't know.
I got a big ass nose, ladies and gentlemen.
But the aroma of BS is just something that I have a knack for.
Let's take a peek, Dad.
Let's take a peek.
So we've got, I just did Audis in our area.
We'll do another zip code here in a second.
So these are at Audia Bethesda.
Some new arrivals here, some 2026s.
They're all relatively fresh, Dad.
29 days, 37 days, 37 days.
You can see it all right there.
And they're new arrivals when they weren't shipping any cars.
Here's an A6 that's been there 176 days.
We've got some 2025, some leftovers, 205 days, 268 days, 81 days.
Why don't you just select Audia Bethesda?
Click on and see how many Audis they have.
And I will guarantee you that it is many more than a 45-day supply.
So this is what's cool.
On every dealer page, obviously they get a transparency score,
but we also have some inventory data.
So you can see here the median days listed as 50 days.
That's across new and used vehicles.
And yeah, you can see here 417 days, 416 days, 349.
Let's look at their distribution down here.
Most of their inventory is 30 to 90 days old, Dad.
I mean, they've got a significant amount.
25% of it is 90 days or older.
But it is, you know, a significant, the majority I should say is 30 to 90 days old.
What would that tell you if 46 of the cars are less than 30 days old?
Now, guess what?
They recently shipped to the dealership.
Yeah.
So these numbers from whoever that was.
This comes from Cox Automotive.
Okay.
This data that we look at every month is from Cox Automotive.
Yes.
Those numbers...
You've got to really switch your eyes to make sense out of them.
Those numbers to me are like me saying I got the original Mona Lisa on my wall here.
Okay?
I don't.
Okay?
I do not.
I don't even have a good copy.
And I don't think those numbers are a good copy of anything.
And that is not to say that Cox Automotive doesn't have their fingers on the pulse of
what's going on in the automobile industry.
I think they do.
But I think they...
In my opinion, I think they are manipulating the numbers to create what appears to be a
better scenario for the industry than really exists, which to me would mean that there's
even more leverage for buyers today than the industry would like to let off.
Let's switch gears, Dad.
There's another story I want to talk about today.
How long can the industry stretch affordability?
The rise of 84-month financing and the new negative equity cycle.
JD Power put out a ton of great research last week, Dad, and I thought we could dig into
it here today.
A few of the key points.
84-month financing is now almost 13% of all new loan originations.
The average monthly payment on new vehicle loans is $806, and about a third of used vehicle
trade-ins have negative equity, and we know the amount of negative equity that those vehicles
have is staggering, in many cases upwards of $10,000.
So, Dad, as we are amidst an affordability crisis, which may play a key role in why we
have seen new car sales decline here in the United States, what did JD Power find in their
research that really caught your attention?
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Well, the thing that really caught my attention is the continuation of extending loan terms,
okay, where what is a 12.8% of all loans today are beyond 84 months and longer, okay, which
is, that's a huge percentage.
And then the other thing that you are frozen or freezing young man, but the other thing
that really caught my attention was that those people who put themselves into these extended
length loans still want to try and get out of them at three and a half to four and a half
years into a six or seven year loan.
And that exacerbates the negative equity situation for those customers because typically they
don't walk in with a lot of cash because, well, they're just payment buyers to begin with.
And all they're interested in is that monthly payment.
They don't have a lot of cash to put down to impact that monthly payment.
So when I saw that number, it's a rather large percentage.
I think it was like 40 some percent of those who get into 72 and 84 month loans are actually
looking to trade it out of those in three and a half to four and a half years.
I know people are going to scream when I say this, but those people should be in leases
and not loans.
If all you're interested in is a payment and you know you're going to have a payment forever
and you're willing to extend the length of the loan in order to have that comfortable payment
and you still want to get a new car every three and a half to four and a half years,
do yourself a favor and get in a lease and just lease a car for the rest of your damn life.
That was one of the takeaways that I saw on there that really caught my eye.
I don't know if you're back and available yet.
If I may, dad, we just got the latest Edmunds data as well.
So what's the average amount that those people are then upside down on that car loan?
$7,183.
And when you roll in the negative equity to your car loan,
the average amount then takes that car loan payment up to $932.
So sit with that for a moment.
This data is literally the freshest information we have.
And to your point that it's over, let me pull the number up here,
it's over 44% of those who took out an 84 month car loan
are trying to get out of that within three to four years.
It's interesting, the longer the loan term is,
the more likely someone is to try and get out of that vehicle into a new vehicle.
So you think about that for a second.
The cycle here is just very nefarious.
The affordability crisis exacerbates itself each time someone goes through that process.
I used to have customers that would enter into a loan
and they would be back in two and a half to three years
and they'd want to get another new car.
And they wouldn't bring any cash to the table.
All they would bring was their negative equity.
And they just want to roll into the next purchase
and to the next purchase and to the next purchase.
And well, at a certain point, the bank is going to say,
no, we're not willing to finance 40% air.
Because when banks go to 140% loan to value ratio,
well, that 40%, there's nothing securing that other than the air that we breathe.
And so there's a certain point where you can't keep rolling
all that negative equity into your next purchase.
And I used to tell people, you know, you can either pay me now,
which means come up with some cash to put down,
or you're going to pay me later because at a certain point when the bank says,
no, we're not doing this anymore, you're going to have to come up with the cash.
So start saving your money.
I mean, just it doesn't, I don't know, just doesn't make any sense to me.
No, it's definitely not a sustainable position for our customer to be in.
And I think it's illustrative of how bad the affordability crisis has actually gotten,
which again, circle back to where we started today's show.
It's all about market day supply.
We sound like a broken record.
Out the door price, market day supply.
Hate to sound that way, but those are the two most important things to keep in mind
when you're buying or leasing a newer used vehicle.
And what we're seeing in the numbers is actually that the industry has more leverage than consumers.
We think that's BS.
We think that that is probably a little bit...
Manipulated.
Manipulated or misstated in our opinions, not representing Car Edge,
representing Ray Shevska and Zach Shevska.
But why have we seen new car sales go down no matter what?
No matter what the MDS says, new car sales have gone down because they've become unaffordable.
And you look at that, then the latest data that we do have,
look at this chart from Edmunds that they put out every quarter with their negative equity update.
You can see on that bar chart, we are at record setting levels historically
in terms of how much someone brings to the table in terms of negative equity, over $7,000.
What's been interesting is while we've seen negative equity amounts increase,
the percentage of trade-ins that actually have negative equity have been below historic norms.
That's starting to change.
We're finally getting back to the above 30% threshold, which is where we've historically been,
where one in three car shoppers, when they trade in their vehicle, bring negative equity.
This chart's concerning to me because the purple line is starting to get back to where it was before.
I'm not talking about the purple line in the DMV area that's being built for whatever,
a decade that may or may not ever happen.
The purple line here, Dad, it's happening and it's concerning.
Very. And I'm telling you, people need to be putting money away for their next...
I mean, they just don't.
I mean, the sad reality, and it was stated in that article,
is that the vast majority of people are only concerned with what their monthly payment is,
and they have no idea what that translated into, how much they actually paid for the damn car,
and how much they're paying over the life of the loan with all the interest that's going to be paid.
And if you don't look at the root cause, which is what you're paying for the car,
if you don't look in the mirror one day and say, gee, I need this, but I want this,
and maybe I could just get by with what I need,
these people are in so far over their heads that at a certain point,
I don't know how they're going to get out of it.
And these are the people that want to buy cars and they keep doing it.
So what's going to happen to the industry when they no longer can?
I think leasing will become more and more popular, Dad,
as people just continue to look for payment options that they can fit into.
But we shall see. Let's come here to the chat from Squeegee Kids.
Thanks for this, Squeegee Kids.
84 months, 96 months. Forget Gacha Motors.
It sounds like the new gold mine is Gacha Financial.
Thanks, Pops and Zach. Yeah.
Yeah. And what was the other statistic in there?
On a 60-month note, the average interest rate was like 4.9%.
And on an 84-month note, that went up to what?
Was it 8. something or 7.9 times?
I mean, you're paying so much more in interest,
just because you're chasing what you think would be a comfortable payment
when maybe what you should be chasing is a less expensive car.
Love those words of advice from Papa Shapska.
All right. Let's spend a moment here, Dad.
We want to thank Car and Driver.
I don't even know if you saw this yet, Dad.
But Car and Driver tested CarEdge AI,
and they posted this in their magazine.
This is in the May and June edition of Car and Driver.
The battle bot in CarEdge is AI buying agent,
Finagle, an amazing deal for us.
So really, really appreciate the team over at Car and Driver testing out our AI.
They had 40 different dealers that they were shopping, Dad.
And yeah, you can see here a few dealers, they named their agent Craig Funk.
A few dealers even lowered their selling prices on Funk's watch.
So it's really, really, really cool to see that there's some potential here, Dad,
in the future for those of you who are interested in using our AI to help shop for a car.
Of course, we still have our concierge car buying services as well,
but a huge shout out to Car and Driver for documenting their experience using our AI agent.
That's so cool, man. We were in Car and Driver. What do you think of that, Dad?
Well, you know, I think that's pretty exciting.
I would like to lie and say I had no idea, okay?
But I can't lie and say that because Meryl Lee was nice enough to send me the link
to the article that was behind the paywall.
And as much as I was interested in what they had to say,
I wasn't signing up for Car and Driver.
But everybody out there should, okay?
Just read the damn article.
It's a cool milestone. So for those of you that get the print publication, check it out.
I'm going to try and get my hands on it, Dad.
We'll frame it. I'm really, really, really excited and proud of that.
Now, I also wanted to take a second here.
This is going to be like a little, this is unrelated to car stuff.
This is like, I'm asking for help, okay?
So, Dad, you and I had the privilege of doing an interview
here in the local D.C. area at WUSA9.
So there was a story on WUSA9.
The journalist who did it, and they interviewed me and my dad,
and they posted it on YouTube.
I have an open question to the community because if you read the comments,
they're pretty mean.
Like, relying on CarEdge for this report tells you everything you need to know about this.
You know CarEdge wants to sell you a car.
No, we don't.
Yeah, you should totally listen to one of the largest car sellers in the market.
Like, I don't know, I just, I was surprised.
Like, me and my dad have built this on YouTube,
been doing this stuff for six years now.
And I was just so surprised to see the negativity in the comments here.
So my question to everyone who tunes into CarEdge Live,
yeah, G3 Power Books saying welcome to the internet.
Have we like, have we like lost some of our luster?
Like, do people not trust us?
Like, what do you make of it, Dad?
Because I was surprised.
When I saw them, I was like, I thought people liked us.
And I finally, I like this.
I thought people understood us.
One of the things I learned early on in the car business is that, like,
and this is another one of my famous made-up statistics.
6% of all the people out there are just nasty people.
Okay?
And no matter what you say, no matter what you do,
you're never going to make them happy.
And they're just going to be nasty, negative people.
Okay?
Now, when I first began to realize that in 77,
when I started in the industry,
it was different than it is today because,
well, we didn't have the internet.
We didn't have social media.
I mean anti-social media.
Social media became the place where people who are negative could go
and just say whatever nasty things they wanted to say about people
without any proof.
And so this, this is the land of haters.
And this is their opportunity to vent their hate.
And this says more about them than it says about us in my opinion.
Yeah, I agree, but I'm still surprised.
I mean, like the way that we've built this business,
the work that we've put into building it transparently,
openly, honestly, like, it's just surprising to me.
Like, and I've seen, I've seen that, you know,
I consumed YouTube when I was younger.
That was one of the inspirations for me and my dad to start our channel.
Shocker, we had lives before we did this.
And, you know, they were very different than our lives today.
We didn't do a YouTube live show every day.
We just, I watched Doug DeMuro.
I watched Red Line Reviews.
I watched Jacobson.
Who views Huvies Garage?
Huvies Garage.
Yeah, but you and I used to watch Huvies Garage videos together.
I mean, I've seen some of those creators kind of go on this arc,
this ride where they're like, they have this rise and then they have a fall off.
And many times I think they've been justified, the fall off.
Like, ego gets inflated, content deviates from what it had previously been.
It just feels a little like money grabby.
I've seen that happen before.
I don't know, man.
I feel like you and I are just doing the same thing for six years.
And so it's just so surprising to me when I saw that video.
I was like, why are people hating on Garage?
Like, all we do is represent consumers and try and help you buy cars.
Like, it was just surprising to me.
Perhaps the haters were the car dealers out there.
I mean, let's face it.
We're here every day advocating for customers.
We're here every day trying to figure out ways to make it easier for customers
to be able to shop for cars.
We've done everything in our power to provide insights and knowledge
and information that people can utilize to navigate this process
more easily, more fairly, more quickly than what they had in the past.
I think the people that we've helped and assisted appreciate it.
The dealers that have to work with the educated customers that we've created for them,
they don't like it because it's harder for them to pull the wool over those customers' eyes.
Yeah, but the deeper I've gone in this business,
more and more dealers seem to love this stuff.
Like, they want educated customers, at least they say.
So I don't think our haters are as many dealers as they used to be.
I think in the early days, there was definitely dealers who were afraid of educated customers.
I think the genies out of the bottle, customers are going to be more educated.
Garage does it.
Many other people do it too.
So the genies out of the bottle there, I was just surprised.
Anyway, I just wanted to share it.
I just wanted to open up a quick discussion with my dad about it with everyone here.
And I see all the positive comments in the chat now, and it makes me personally feel super touched, so happy.
I know sometimes people give me a hard time.
I still remember people can make fun of me for being emotional here on YouTube with my dad.
It means the world to me.
We choose every day to wake up and do this, me and my dad.
We were hanging out last week.
It was so much fun to film videos together.
What a blessed life we live.
What an incredible, humbling, awesome opportunity it is.
We just get to wake up, hang out, have fun, make videos, help people.
And it wouldn't be possible without the people that choose to support us.
So when I see that kind of fading or when I see people taking shots at us, it definitely emotionally hits me for a second.
But it's really great fun.
Trust me, it's just the 6% of people out there that there's no way you're ever going to make them happy.
6% of the population are just jerks.
And you can go on the internet all day long, and how many videos do you see of people, self-entitled people who are making asses of themselves in front of everybody else?
So with the advent of social media, it's easier for these people to stand out.
And so these keyboard warriors that are out there that just want to be nasty and vindictive and whatever else, it gives them a platform to do that.
Which is one of the reasons why you know I have said this to you so many times.
I don't think of social media as being very social at all.
I think it's anti-social media.
It is a way for people to vent their anger and their frustrations in a manner in which they would never do it in public.
And I don't see anything social about that.
I think one of the greatest downfalls of humanity will be what we call social media.
It befuddles, well it doesn't really befuddle them, because people are jerks a lot of them.
And those who aren't...
I disagree, I don't think most people are jerks.
I didn't say most, I said a lot of them.
You know, I think most are nice people.
I think most are people that appreciate others.
I think most, if they saw a neighbor in trouble, would go do something and help them out.
But I think there's at least 6% that are just absolute jerks and there's nothing you can do about it.
We got the Pareto principle and we've got the Shevsk standard, the 80-20 rule and the 94-6 rule.
Anyway, I didn't mean to take us too far down that tangent, but just wanted to share how I was feeling and share that with everyone.
So thank you everyone for the positive comments, I see them in the chat here.
Again, it means the world to me.
And thank you WUSA, it's my local here in DC CVS station.
What a privileged and humbling moment to be on the local news.
Also in car and driver, like come on dad, we are crushing it.
I'm so proud of us and our incredible team.
There's the high five.
Anyway folks, we're back tomorrow with more Car Edge Live.
Full week this week, I'm not doing any rock climbing trips, alright?
So we're here every day.
I thought it was me that rock climbed.
Oh, I don't, wait, I don't have any cuts or bruises or anything.
Yeah, my finger pads are a little...
Oh my, look at that, yeah.
We pushed hard.
Alright y'all, check out the website CarEdge.com, subscribe to the channel if you like the content.
And dad, enjoy the afternoon, I'll see you back here tomorrow.
You got it, love you handsome.
Love you too.
Thank you.
If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review and subscribe.
It really does help the show to grow.
Thank you for listening.
About this episode
Ray and Zach dig into Cox Automotive “days supply” data, arguing that Lexus, Toyota, Audi, and Honda appear to be artificially constraining inventory to protect pricing power—despite year-over-year sales declines. They challenge the math, compare prior months, and even cross-check dealer listings via CarEdge to suggest the reported days-supply figures don’t match what’s sitting on lots. The discussion then shifts to affordability: JD Power and Edmunds data on 84-month financing, negative equity, and how payment-focused buyers get trapped in a cycle. They also celebrate Car and Driver testing CarEdge AI.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data from Cox Automotive. Tune in to learn more! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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