Automotive News Canada Podcast Mar 5, 2026

March 6, 2026 | The week’s top stories and AlixPartners’ Dan Hearsch on Iran conflict

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Term

seasonally adjusted annual sales rate

This number shows how many cars would sell in a whole year if every month sold as many cars as this month, after fixing for usual ups and downs during the year.

Concept

vehicle production

Vehicle production means making cars and trucks in factories. Things like taxes and parts shortages can slow this down.

Concept

tariffs

Tariffs are extra taxes added to things brought in from other countries, making them more expensive and sometimes slowing down car making.

Concept

federal electric vehicle rebates

The government gives money back when you buy certain electric cars to make them cheaper. This helps more people buy cleaner cars that use electricity instead of gas.

Concept

battery electric vehicles

These are cars that run only on electricity stored in big batteries. They don’t use gas and need to be plugged in to charge.

Concept

plug-in hybrids

These cars have both a gas engine and a battery that you can charge by plugging in. They can drive some distance on electricity before using gas.

Concept

electric vehicle affordability program

This is a government plan that helps people buy electric cars by giving money back or discounts. It replaced an older program that ran out of money.

Concept

ISEV incentive

This was an older government program that gave money back to people who bought electric cars, but it ran out of money and stopped.

Term

EV

An EV is a car that runs on electricity instead of gas. It uses batteries to store power and doesn't need fuel like regular cars.

LIVE

Hi everyone and welcome to the March 6th, 2026 episode of the Automotive News Canada

podcast.

I'm your host Greg Lason, the digital and mobile editor at Automotive News Canada, coming

to you from just outside Windsor, Ontario, the automotive capital of Canada.

Today on the show, Michael Martinez of Automotive News speaks with global co-leader of the Automotive

and Industrial Practice at Alex Partners, Dan Hirsch.

The two discuss how the latest military conflict in Iran could affect the auto industry.

But first, a look at some of the top Canadian automotive stories of the week.

Canadian new vehicle sales in February were essentially flat.

According to DeRosier Automotive Consultants, automakers sold slightly fewer than 122,000

vehicles last month.

That's down only two-tenths of a percent from a year earlier.

The firm called the result a solid performance.

It noted the industry faced in February uncertain trade conditions, poor weather, and broader

economic challenges.

The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate came in at 2 million vehicles.

That's slightly lower than January, but it's still stronger than any month during the final

two quarters of 2025.

Of the 10 brands that still report on a monthly basis, six posted gains.

In supplier news, Linnamar Corp. closed out 2025 with higher profits.

The Canadian auto parts supplier reported fourth quarter revenue of $2.5 billion.

That's up nearly 6% from a year earlier.

Executive Chair Linda Hassenfrat says the results capped a strong year despite U.S.

tariffs and slower vehicle production in North America and Europe.

For the full year, revenues slipped 3.3% to $10.2 billion while earnings rose nearly

3%.

Growth in Linnamar's automotive mobility business helped offset a weaker year in industrial.

That's tied to construction and agricultural equipment.

And finally, on the retail front, federal electric vehicle rebates are back in Canada

and dealers say the move is already sparking renewed interest.

After more than a year of uncertainty, Ottawa's new electric vehicle affordability program

offers up to $5,000 off battery electric vehicles and $2,500 off plug-in hybrids.

Industry leaders say the incentives will help sales, but likely won't transform the market

overnight.

David Adams, the head of the global automakers of Canada, says the rebates should encourage

adoption but are not quote, a magic potion.

The program replaces the previous ISEV incentive which ran out of funding in early 2025.

Dealers began applying the new rebates at the point of sale in mid-February.

Early signs suggest the incentives are already boosting interest with some retailers reporting

a noticeable increase in EV inquiries and showroom traffic.

And that's a look at some of the top Canadian automotive stories of the week.

We're now going to hear a conversation between Michael Martinez of Automotive News and global

co-leader of the Automotive and Industrial Practice at Alex Partners, Dan Hirsch.

Dan Hirsch, thanks so much for joining me today.

No, my pleasure.

Thanks for calling.

So I know this is an extremely fluid situation.

Things could change within a matter of hours or certainly days.

But could you sort of set the scene for me right now on where things stand with the Strait

of Hormuz given the war, the conflict with Iran?

Yeah, of course.

So just for clarity, the Strait of Hormuz is the thin strip of ocean that connects

the Persian Gulf south.

And it goes it goes next to UAE where it sticks out.

And then I ran on the on the north side, right?

So it's the strait that that you would exit the Persian Gulf.

So there's lots of energy and oil that that flows out of there.

Not a lot in terms of auto parts, right?

Cars and car parts really aren't going through that part of the world.

Now, certainly going south along the borders of Yemen and then up through

the Red Sea into the Suez Canal, there's a fair amount of shipping there.

So of course, we've seen disruption in the Suez over the past few years

with the the ship blockage that happened a few years ago.

And then the Haudis, right?

The Haudi rebels were we're disrupting shipping there.

But as far as the Strait of Hormuz itself, that's really not much of an auto parts

transit, right?

And it's just it's kind of Kuwait, Iran, the far eastern edge of Saudi

and United Arab Emirates is the only areas affected there.

Auto parts are really not going into Saudi on that side.

They go over to Jeddah for the bus part, which is on the Red Sea.

So automotive specifically, probably not a lot of disruption.

Certainly oil coming out of the Persian Gulf.

Yes, you would expect that this is somewhat problematic.

And from what I understand, the Strait isn't technically closed, but there've been a lot

of warnings issued and a lot of shipping suppliers have sort of stopped going through

there on their own.

Is that correct?

Yeah, yes, I think that it's closed for all intents and purposes.

I don't believe any entity is blocking it.

There's not a blockade, but I don't believe any ships are transiting at the current time.

And then, of course, you have airplanes are disrupted in the region as well.

So, you know, normal routes that might probably not have crossed Iranian airspace

are steering well clear of it.

And then, of course, you have Afghanistan and Pakistan have have something going on as well.

And so flights to India are taking some alternate routes that are adding hours.

That's a significant disruption.

Mention not a whole lot of disruption for auto parts.

What about for minerals specifically for EV production or battery production?

Is there anything related to that?

Yes, that's not a significant flow through there.

I don't believe I don't believe certainly the oil has been shipped out of there regularly.

There's, you know, for decades, of course.

But there's not a tremendous amount of mining or refining in that part of the world.

And material like that can go overland, you know, that whether it's through

Saudi or up into up into Europe to get to the Red Sea, if they had to, right?

So that that's a little bit easier to truck than oil where, you know, it's either pipeline

or ship and pipelines require NAFTA and other other things that if you can't just like

suddenly turn it on, like there's a there's a significant flow.

And so the oil is probably the most significant thing that's getting disrupted there.

And what could be the outlook?

I know the president has mentioned the U.S.

and Israel's offensive could last weeks if there's continued disruption for weeks,

if not months, how could that impact oil prices and ultimately gas prices here in the U.S.?

Yeah, anybody's guess how long this lasts?

And I think that the strait itself being closed is is a small part of the problem.

I mean, if military actions are ongoing throughout that whole region,

then oil production is going to be disrupted, much less shipping.

So yeah, I mean, you would expect that oil will spike and continue to spike.

Now is that are there other options or there are other ways to move oil out of places

like Saudi and Kuwait?

Yes, but that that will also add cost and time.

So you would expect at least as long as this is going on,

you probably already have some of that priced into oil with the current spike.

But the longer it goes, the higher it could likely go.

Any other issues or concerns for auto suppliers,

for manufacturers as they're mattering the situation right now?

You know, logistically, like I said, it's not it's not a huge impact.

But if this were to escalate in any meaningful way,

it could certainly become as big or bigger than the Russia-Ukraine conflict,

which had severe disruption of in a number of ways.

This could be no different, right?

Like the you already see airlines are having to shift their routes.

You had not that long ago, the the Howdy rebels coming out of Yemen

impacting the Red Sea.

They haven't taken any action currently, at least as of my last reading,

but they have aligned themselves historically with Iran.

So you could be concerned that this shifts over to the Red Sea or the Suez Canal.

That would be significantly disruptive.

That would cause, you know, much like the the Evergreen blockage a few years ago.

That adds weeks to transit times if they have to go around

Africa or go the opposite direction and coming out of places like India and Thailand.

You know, I was wondering, and maybe this isn't an issue,

but just curious any knock on effects if oil shipping or anything else

that would normally pass through the strait is rerouted somewhere,

would that not clog the other shipping lanes and potentially hurt

or slow delivery time of of other vessels and cargo and things of that nature?

I don't think you would see clogging in the same way that you would.

You see it with the with the Suez Canal, which is only, you know,

one or two ships wide at many places, right?

So that is a bottleneck going around.

The South Southern tip of Africa is not as bottlenecked.

It's also rougher and more, you know, more dangerous to ships generally.

Now ships today tend not to have the same types of problems just with weather and waves,

but it, like I said, it adds a significant amount of time to get south and then come back north.

I don't think this would put any pressure on the Panama Canal.

That's really the only other significant choke point you think of with these types of things.

But so it's not not necessarily that it gets clogged up, but certainly it adds all of that

transit time to go very far south, come back very far north to get to the same point.

Actually coming out of the Mediterranean that you get from the Suez Canal.

So your bottom line takeaway for the industry is, you know, maybe not a huge impact at the moment,

but especially, you know, for oil prices, it could be a big burden as time goes on.

Yeah, 100%. And then, you know, instability in the region absolutely has knock-on effects

that are going to be very hard to predict. Some will be somewhat obvious, but

the attacks that you've seen and the instability there, but escalation, if it lasts too long,

if more players get involved, that becomes a significant problem. And of course,

you know, for auto companies, this is just one more disruption, one more thing to be worried about

and have a backup plan for your backup plan. But, you know, the long and the short is it

certainly adds risk. And you've got to be thinking about rerouting anything that's going to go through

that part of the world just out of an abundance of caution.

You sort of touched on this in your answers throughout, but are there any warning signs

or any key issues you're looking at as the days go on that if, you know, there would be a red flag

for you if something were to happen to say, okay, now we may really be in trouble here?

Yeah, you haven't seen attacks on commercial shipping. You've seen mainly targeting military,

but things could certainly go that way. That would be one. If you saw a bit of a resurgence of the

howdy's again, or something like that, that would be another. But an expansion away from just

straight-of-hormuz or just things that are very close to Iran, that's where you would start to

really get worried that more significant disruption than just that small straight is

likely instead of just possible. All right, Dan Hurst, thanks so much for joining me.

Thanks, Mike. Good talking to you. I'd like to thank Dan for his time and Michael for

conducting the interview. If you'd like to be a guest on the show, have a suggestion or simply

want to comment, email me at glasen at AutoNews.com. And remember, you can listen to all our previous

podcasts on Spotify, iTunes, Google Play, or on our website, automotivenews.ca. Just scroll to

the podcast hub in the middle of the homepage. And don't forget, you can follow Automotive News

Canada on X, where we're at AutoNews Canada. And you can find me there, too, under at glasen,

A-N-C. Finally, you can find us on LinkedIn. Just search Automotive News Canada. That does it for

this episode of the Automotive News Canada podcast. We hope you'll join us next time. So long, everybody.

0:00

13:01

March 6, 2026 | The week’s top stories and AlixPartners’ Dan Hearsch on Iran conflict

seasonally adjusted annual sales rate

vehicle production

tariffs

federal electric vehicle rebates

battery electric vehicles

plug-in hybrids

electric vehicle affordability program

ISEV incentive

EV

About this episode

Original notes