Diesel is a type of fuel used in diesel engines. If diesel supply gets tight or demand rises, the price can jump.
Term
heptane
Heptane is a kind of fuel molecule that can come out of oil refining. The point here is that refining turns crude oil into different substances used for fuels.
Speculators are people who trade based on what they think prices will do next. In oil markets, that trading can make prices move faster or higher than they otherwise would.
A global market means oil is traded internationally, not just in one country. So if prices change somewhere, it can affect what you pay in other places too.
0W8 is a type of engine oil. It’s designed to flow easily when it’s cold and still have the right thickness when the engine is hot. Cars that are built for it can use it to help improve fuel economy.
0W12 is a specific kind of engine oil. It’s very thin when the engine is hot, which can help the engine move more easily. Some newer cars require it for best results.
Multi-weight oil is made to perform in both cold and hot weather. It’s engineered so it flows well when the engine is cold, but still provides protection when the engine is hot.
10W40 is a common older-style engine oil type. The “10W” part helps it flow when it’s cold, and the “40” part describes how thick it is when the engine is hot. It’s generally not as thin as the newer 0W8/0W12 oils.
20W50 is a thicker engine oil. It’s meant to handle heat better than very thin oils, but it can create more internal resistance than the ultra-thin oils some newer cars require. That’s why newer cars often specify much lower numbers like 0W8/0W12.
They’re talking about friction inside the engine. If the oil is thinner (within what the car allows), the moving parts can slide with less resistance, which can help the car use less fuel.
An aluminum engine is made with aluminum parts instead of heavier metal. Aluminum can help the engine manage heat and stay lighter, which is one reason modern cars may be picky about the exact oil they’re designed to use.
Synthetic oil is a type of engine oil that’s made to be more consistent and reliable than older conventional oils. It’s not just “crude oil” straight from the ground—it's processed and engineered for performance.
Concept
toilet paper shortage
They’re using “toilet paper shortage” as a comparison to past situations where people panicked and bought too much at once. The point is to question whether the oil problem is truly a supply issue or partly caused by people reacting to rumors.
Concept
artificially inflating
They’re suggesting prices might be going up more than they need to because of manipulation or opportunism. The idea is that it could be partly “made worse” rather than purely caused by a real shortage.
“Hydrocracked” is a refinery process that uses hydrogen to change crude oil into different, more useful products. The way the base oil is made can affect what kind of “synthetic” it becomes and whether supply is tight.
“Solvent refined” means the refinery uses solvents to clean up and separate oil components. That can determine what type of base oil you end up with, which affects motor oil supply.
“Finished lubricants” means the oil you buy and pour into your car, not the raw ingredients. If there’s a shortage in the supply chain, you can see price jumps or fewer choices at the store.
CAFE is a rule that pushes car companies to make their overall lineup average better on gas mileage. To help hit those targets, they use things like special low-friction fluids.
Fluid friction is the “drag” that happens when oil moves inside the engine or transmission. Less drag usually means the car can waste less energy and get better mileage.
These are very thin lubricants designed to reduce drag inside the engine or transmission. Thinner fluid can help the car use less fuel, but it has to be the right type for the vehicle.
ULV transmission oils are special, very thin fluids for the gearbox. They’re meant to reduce drag and improve mileage, but you still need the correct fluid type for your transmission.
A supply chain is the whole process of making and delivering a product. If one buyer grabs a big amount, there may not be enough left for other customers, which can cause shortages.
dexos is a set of rules for engine oil that GM requires for certain vehicles. If a shop needs “dexos” oil, it means they need oil that meets GM’s standard, not just any oil.
Hoarding means people buy and store more than they normally need. If everyone does that during an oil shortage, it can make the shortage worse for everyone else.
Term
X percent
The speaker is describing fuel/commodity price increases in percentage terms (e.g., 5%, 10%, 20%+). Using percent increases helps compare how big the change is relative to the prior price, which matters when planning inventory and ordering ahead of time.
A technical service bulletin is like an official “here’s what to do” memo from the car maker. It helps mechanics fix a problem the same way the manufacturer recommends.
“Short of this product” refers to supply constraints where a manufacturer or supplier can’t get enough of a specific item (here, a fluid/product used in vehicles). In practice, this can trigger substitutions, revised build plans, or dealer guidance to manage customer impact.
Corporate Average Fuel Economy is a rule that pressures car companies to make their overall lineup use less fuel. If they don’t meet the target, they can face penalties.
EPA stands for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It sets and enforces regulations that can include vehicle emissions and related standards that influence automakers’ product decisions.
An oil shortage means there isn’t enough oil available. That can affect things like engine oil supply, which can slow down how cars are made or serviced.
The Chevrolet Trax is a small SUV made for regular daily driving. People may choose it for business because it’s a practical size and can be set up for work needs. Local support can also matter if you need service or help customizing it.
These are special motor oils that are thinner when the engine is hot. The idea is to reduce friction inside the engine, but they need specific ingredients to still protect the engine.
“Group 3 base oil” refers to a category of refined petroleum base stocks used to make lubricants. It’s typically produced via hydrocracking and is widely used because it can be blended to achieve the performance targets needed for modern low-viscosity and synthetic-leaning oils.
The point is that oil companies don’t just need crude—they also need specific refined ingredients and chemicals. If those come from overseas and supply gets tight, the finished motor oil you buy can become more expensive.
Additives are extra chemicals mixed into base oil to make it do the right job—like protecting engine parts and keeping the oil from breaking down. If additive ingredients are scarce, oil makers can’t produce as much finished oil.
“15W-40” (spoken here as “1540”) is a common oil grade that tells you how thick the oil is when it’s cold and when it’s hot. The host is saying these older-style grades are rising differently than the newest thinner oils.
The BMW 5 Series is a mid-size car that’s built to feel more upscale and comfortable than a typical sedan. It’s the kind of car people compare when talking about model years and how pricing changes over time. The discussion usually focuses on what’s been offered and for how long.
Term
1030s
“10W-30” is an oil grade that describes how the oil flows when it’s cold and how it holds up when the engine is hot. The host is comparing price changes across different common oil grades.
It means oil was piling up in ships instead of getting delivered where it was needed. When that happens, prices for the oil products people buy can jump around more.
Oil is often priced per barrel. At one point during COVID, the price got so bad that it briefly went below zero—meaning sellers were paying just to unload it.
Term
20 drums
A drum is a big container used to ship and store oil. “20 drums” suggests bulk buying for a business, not just buying a few bottles at a store.
Oil prices are often quoted per gallon, and usually the changes are small—like a few cents. The point here is that COVID made the price swings much bigger than usual.
An oil change is when you replace the engine oil so it can keep lubricating and protecting the engine. If you wait too long, the oil can get dirty and stop doing its job well.
The Honda Civic is a common everyday car. The host is using it to explain that if you ignore the oil-change schedule in the manual (or push it too long), you can end up hurting the engine over time.
The check engine light is a warning that something may be wrong with the car’s engine systems. The host’s point is that you shouldn’t wait for that light if you’re due for maintenance—problems can build up before it alerts you.
“Panic buys” are when people buy a lot of something all at once because they’re worried it won’t be available later or will cost more. With motor oil, that can mean buying too much and then regretting it if things get better.
“Panic buying” is when people buy faster than normal because they’re scared of a problem later. In this episode, the guest says it’s often because they expect the price to jump, not just because they think the product will disappear.
LIVE
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Hey, look, I have got a show on oil.
Hmm, interesting.
I've done one a few years back with Lee Rotis.
And Lee, you're back here for one important particular reason.
I saw you last Friday and we were sitting with a group of independents.
We were chatting about oil and you started to bring all your background information and what's going on.
And of course, Lauren fixes with us widely known as the Car Coach.
They actually recognize automotive expert, journalist, author, television personality.
She's the editor-in-chief of the Car Coach report and regularly provides insider commentary on vehicle reviews,
consumer buying advice, and industry trends across major media.
And she's going to be on TV show news channels today, I know for sure.
And Lee, territory sales manager, Declan Oil.
Oh my God.
So here's what happens.
Lauren writes an article, the great motor oil panic is mostly BS and drivers are paying the price.
And I had just booked Lee to come on.
I read Lauren's article and I said, could you come on?
And she was able to work this out.
I'm like a 24 hour notice for us to get together and start talking about some of this craziness that's going on.
So are we really facing a motor oil shortage geysers?
It's just overstated.
Who wants to start?
Are there shortages?
Absolutely.
There's some shortages.
The supply is becoming very tight and as a result, the pricing is going sky high.
All of that is 100% real.
It's happening.
It's a worldwide global oil market.
And as much as we can drill and produce crude oil here, we just don't have the capabilities to refine enough of it.
We do sell it internationally also and there's other regions of the world that are needing it.
And so these oil companies are selling a lot of the crude and a lot of the product overseas and internationally.
With that said, we're not going to see customers parking their cars because they're running out of oil.
They will be able to get oil.
It's not that they can't get the oil.
It's just they're going to be paying a very high premium for some period of time in order to get it, but we're not going to run out.
That part's not quite accurate, but there are certainly shortages and supply constraints.
You know what I keep thinking?
These ivory tower public relations people that have the word profit in their title somewhere along the line.
And they were basically stopping to think it says, we're crazy if we don't do something about this.
And I'm not saying, Lauren, you brought something up in your article about the toilet paper thing. Let's go there.
Okay. Do you remember during COVID, you couldn't get toilet paper.
You'd go to your favorite grocery store in the back.
You can't get it.
You can only buy one package.
Then you go to like Costco, BJs, wherever, and you're like, oh, you can't get it.
I'm thinking this is weird because that flu that was going around didn't cause you to go to the bathroom more.
They made money at the paper companies.
They were making it as fast as they could.
Actually, I know a guy who made millions and millions, probably billions of dollars, who's in Wisconsin.
And all they do is produce toilet paper for multiple brands under multiple names.
So who's making money here?
This is the same kind of mindset.
And I know we were talking before the show with Lee and with Carm.
So we have to think about this.
So we only get 3%, just 3% of our oil from the Middle East.
The rest comes from here, Venezuela, Canada, wherever.
And if you take crude oil out of the ground and you process it five times, it becomes diesel,
which most of it we ship to other countries.
Why are diesel prices are so high again?
There's a whole other conversation, but I think they're artificially inflated as well.
And then if you process that crude oil seven times, you get something called heptane, which is gasoline,
which you pump into your car, which again is artificially inflated prices
because these speculators go on a global market and they're saying,
oh, we can't get oil, which is not true because oil comes from other places.
And we are an exporter of oil.
Again, what is going on here?
So to me, I always say, follow the money.
It sounds like a money grab.
And in this case, with the oil shortage, we're talking about engine oil specifically in this section.
I want people to realize that if you have some of these newer cars that get great fuel economy,
they're hybrid vehicles, and they use this like really odd combinations of multi-weight oils like 0W8 or 0W12,
like these are not normal things.
When Karm and I were young, because you seem younger than I am, we use either 10W40 or 20W50.
And, you know, maybe there were a few others, especially using a diesel engine.
But now they've got all these mixed multi-weights in order to get you the optimum fuel economy,
the least amount of refriction in the engine.
And a lot of these are aluminum engines and they run really hot.
So you could run other multi-weight oils.
But what they do at the service facilities, especially at the dealerships,
is they go, this car was designed for this specific oil, which is extremely specific.
Typically, they're synthetic.
Again, that's not crude oil coming out of the ground.
It's synthetic, so it's man-made.
And there's just a little bit of it that comes from a type of fuel or additive that comes from the Middle East,
in some cases, but also made here.
So why are the prices high?
And that's why I start calling, wait a minute, is this a toilet paper shortage?
Are they artificially inflating this in order to gain what Karm said?
Profits, follow the money.
There's a lot of money going.
So is there truly a shortage, maybe in some of these odd multi-weight combinations?
But there are other alternatives.
So when you go to the dealer or a customer comes in and they're like,
that's going to be real expensive and the customer pushes back,
you can just say, what other options do I have?
But if you don't offer it and they don't ask, nobody goes there.
Lee, you were telling me before we turned on the record button,
all you've been doing for the last couple of weeks is telling stories.
What do you hear from all your clients, which are the people who repair vehicles?
I've had to refine the story because it can take a while to tell the whole story,
depending on who wants to know how many details.
But at the end of it, really, it boils down to there are shortages.
Now we have to separate fuels from lubricants.
And the problems and the pricing that we're seeing with diesel fuel and gasoline
is a different issue than what we're seeing with the finished lubricants.
And although most people think that, you know, synthetic oil,
all synthetic oils manmade, a majority of what we're seeing,
like the 08 and the 012, 016, even a 020,
the majority of those synthetics are group three synthetic,
which still comes out of the ground.
I would say 99% of the oil that's used commonly comes out of the ground.
And even if it's a full synthetic 020, it still starts in the ground.
It's just the refining process as whether it's hydrocracked or solvent refined
or however you refine that is going to lead to the end product.
So a lot, you know, it's coming out of the ground
and we're going to see fuel, diesel and gasoline that those prices will drop rapidly
whenever there's an agreement that's long standing and lasting.
We'll see those prices come down, but finished lubricant side,
the group three base oil is our primary issue that we're seeing.
Group three is made in your 08, 012, 016s.
And to your point, we absolutely can use other products.
And I think Toyota just put out a TSB saying, you know, use 016 if it's a 08.
And most of those products are used to meet the company's CAFE,
the corporate average fuel economy standards.
So when you go from a 08 to a 016 or 016 to a 020,
that car might eke out another, you know, 500 feet per mile
because there's less fluid friction and you get better emissions and fuel economy.
And that's really what's driving those super ultra low viscosity fluids.
And I think that's the key word is what we're seeing.
The problems we're seeing are primarily with the ultra low viscosity,
the super lightweight stuff, the ULV transmission oils, those type of problems.
The supply is tight, but it's there.
We don't anticipate any issues in supplying our customers
with whatever products they're going to need on a go forward.
So interesting team.
Here's the consumer not listening to Lauren and Lee right now.
They're just listening to what's going on in the media
and all the junk and the crap that we keep hearing.
And is this going to put us into a, oh my God, I can't get oil
or I'm just going to go to the local store and buy cases of this stuff.
Lee, you were telling me that you even have some customers buying extra cases of product
and you're starting to limit them, right, Lee?
Again, back to the toilet paper, there is absolute hoarding.
People are trying to hoard motor oil right now.
I'm a sales guy and if somebody calls me and wants 20 drums of a product,
I would love to sell it to them.
The problem is that's where you impact the supply chain
because somebody got 20 drums.
Now you have 20 other customers that bought one drum typically historically
and we have to tell them no.
The other problem is the new business, the phone calls,
the amount of strange calls I've had in the last month have been incredible.
Again, I'm a sales guy, so I'm drooling over these opportunities
but the truth is we have to take care of our own customers first.
So it's not that we can't sell new customers
but it can't just be, hey, I need to buy 200 gallons of oil from you
because I can't get it.
I have heard of some pretty big oil change companies, quick oil change,
the fast loops that are struggling right now to keep inventory in stock
and they've reached out to some of the independent blenders
to get a quarter million gallons of dexos because they couldn't get it
or they want to supply.
So we're going to see some of that hoarding of materials.
If we don't keep it in check, it's going to be a bigger problem than it is
but I've tried to really reinforce to my customers.
It's going to be tight, it's going to be expensive
and that's the real reason why they want to buy it
because if it's going to go up by $4 a gallon on Tuesday next week,
what do you think everybody wants to do today?
All right, they want to order before it goes up.
The other issue is historically, we get at a minimum of 30 days notice
prior to an increase.
So Petrol Canada, Phillips 66, Kendall, they'll let us know that on this date,
30 days from now, you're going to see an increase of X percent.
Usually it's 5%, 10% but recently it's been 20%, 30%, 35% increases
back to back to back.
So it's a wild market.
All right, Lauren, what are you hearing because of the article you put out?
What kind of feedback?
It's been unbelievable.
There's been technical service bulletins put out from Nissan and Toyota
and Honda and the other brands saying, hey, we're running short of this product.
They are, like Lee said, putting out technical service bulletin saying,
here's an option to use that you're not forcing your customers into an option.
What you're hearing on social media, the problem is nobody listens to the mainstream media anymore,
which is good for us and Carmen and the rest of it.
But what they are doing is going to Twitter and Instagram and Facebook
and I'm getting tons of people sending me messages.
Did you see this?
Did you see this?
We're going to have vehicles coming out of the production facilities with no oil in them,
no lubricants.
I'm like, you really think they're going to build a product,
an engine with a transmission and all the nine different fluids with no fluids?
That's not going to happen.
They're not going to put a brake system together without brake fluid or engine together without oil.
And it's not impacting the manufacturers because there are options and they can adjust accordingly.
Now, with the corporate average fuel economy that Lee was talking about,
that is pretty much pulled under Lee Zeldin, who is in charge of the EPA.
And because of that, that is actually good for car manufacturers, good for consumers.
You're not forced into a situation where you have to buy a car that gets 55 miles of the gallon,
not that you don't want it because I love fuel, good fuel economy as well.
But forcing car brands to do that and if they don't make that number, they have a fine.
Well, those fines are out the window.
So they are going to produce, all brands are going to produce what you want.
You want electric?
Great.
You want plug-in hybrid?
We can do that.
You want hybrid?
We can do that.
And if you're looking at the sales, you're seeing sales are down from a lot of brands because they're building what customers don't want.
If they're building what customers want, fuel-efficient cars that are reliable and efficient,
some lately it's been less technology and something that people actually want to buy at a price that they want to spend,
then you're going to find vehicles that's going to be built.
However, with this oil shortage bringing it full circle, they're going to have to adjust accordingly.
And they're starting to do that at the factory.
They know that.
As Lee knows, they're buying unbelievable millions and millions of gallons of one lubricant in order to put into an engine
because as the car goes down the production line, it's also filled with those fluids.
It doesn't go out to final check without fluids in it.
I've been to multiple production facilities that is just at the Hyundai plant in Savannah, Georgia, brand new.
Those vehicles are being driven off the line, not being pushed off the line.
Don't let the social media people, the doom scrollers of the world, because they all share it.
They see it and they go, oh my gosh, I'm not going to get oil.
I'm not going to change, or I'm not going to change my oil, which is an even dumber choice because now you're actually putting wear and tear in your engine
and when you do decide to get an oil change or your check engine light comes on and it's red, you're going to have a much bigger bill.
Good Lord.
Yeah, it is what it is, unfortunately.
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Has anyone explained to us why the price increases besides the fact that who said 3% of our stuff comes from the Middle East?
They all were drilling more oil. We're the biggest oil producer in the US.
So when the message comes out, Lee, that says we're going to have a 20% price increase,
is there a justifiable reason behind that that you've been able to read?
Kind of, I guess. I mean, I guess it all depends on what lens you're looking at it through.
And again, I'm dealing with, in my everyday, I deal with the suppliers that are basically increasing our price.
So when Deckman Oil as a company buys our oil and the price rockets up, here's an advantage we have.
We deal with multiple major suppliers and we can see that it's not in isolation.
We don't have, you know, company A raising us 30% and company B raising us 5%.
It's been pretty consistent. We also deal with some independent blenders and we've seen the same.
Part of the problem we have is that the technology that goes into these ultra low viscosity oils,
we are dependent on other countries for the supplies to make them.
So we can drill crude oil all day, but we have to get the Group 3 base oil.
We have to have the right additive supplies and the a lot of the Group 3 comes from all over the world.
Although, again, in isolation, I would think the bigger argument is we should be independent with fuel because we can refine that fuel and get it.
But on the finished lubricants, we have to separate lubricating oils from fuels and there's a very big distinction between those two.
So that's really why we're seeing these price increases because the technology that goes into these oils, we can't make enough of it for our own consumption.
And the stuff that we do make, we can sell overseas for a little more probably.
Let's raise the prices on just those tough ones. Is that what's going on Lee or not?
So what I'm seeing is in the automotive industry, all your synthetic automotive oils, European oils, the ultra low viscosity oils, those are going up exponentially more than the fleet oil.
So your 1540 motor oil or AW hydraulics, things like that, they're going up.
Lee, I got a question. How long has it been for a price increase on these traditional, you know, 1540s, 1030s, 530s?
How long has it been since there's been a price increase?
Again, everybody's got a great reason to raise prices because of what's going on in the Middle East and we're paying.
And again, does that stuff ever come down? God, I don't think toilet paper is still up there, right Lauren? It's still there.
I think it's softened a little bit. There's coupons, there's coupons available.
Oh wait, it's softened a bit. I love that. I've seen commercials for soft toilet paper. That's very good Lauren.
Thank you.
But Lee, has it been a while since it was a price increase and this price increase now is making up for lost time maybe?
Perhaps. So when we look back to COVID, I've been doing this for a little over 12 years.
We had never seen anything like we saw during COVID and of course the prices went up.
But what we saw was prior to COVID, you would have one or two price moves per year on finished lubricants.
Those would sometimes be up a little bit or down a little bit, but it was nothing crazy.
COVID hits and we had 13 consecutive price increases inside of 18 months.
That was painful. Again, here I am trying to get 300 customers, giving them notice of an increase.
But it came every two weeks, every three weeks, once a month for 18 months.
So it was just so inconsistent and it went way up.
Was there a why behind that?
During the COVID?
Yeah.
Well, we had tankers full of oil floating off the coast of California for a couple of months.
Crude oil at one point hit like negative $40 a barrel.
So somebody asked me to send him 20 drums and a check for $1,000.
That's pretty much where we were during COVID.
This is different.
We're not seeing an extended 13 increases over 18 months.
We're seeing historically high single move increases of dollars plural per gallon.
Historically, when I talk to my customers about price moves on finished lubricants,
it's cents per gallon, not dollars per gallon, but that's all changed now.
Lauren and Lee, I could feel the cost of transportation and people's wages and things have gone up.
So there's no doubt that there is a nominal normal price increase on things.
But to your point earlier, Lee, I think you're saying it's a lot higher than we ever expected.
If there was a cost of living increase on oil, like everything else, bake it, name it.
But now, have you bought meat lately?
Oh my God.
Now you're in a whole different category of conversation, you realize.
And I don't want to go there because there's apparently a shortage of cattle or whatever.
Well, it's a whole other conversation.
I just wonder what, with all that we're saying, that the industry appreciates,
it's the consumer that I'm worried about, that there could be a crazy rush.
They're not going to come in as often as they should because they don't want to pay the price.
We're going to disregard certain maintenance intervals?
Oh, absolutely.
And we've seen that already where people are thinking, do I put food on the table?
Do I pay my mortgage?
Or do I get an oil change?
Or rotate my tires or any type of basic maintenance in your owner's manual?
And unfortunately, what that does is it leads to a whole other conversation of this shortage of oil.
I'm not going to get an oil change.
An oil change was $50.
I had a deal and a coupon.
I bought it online.
Now it's $100 just for argument's sake.
Maybe I won't do that.
We've got a shortage of used cars, a shortage of used car parts.
We've got fires happening in salvage yards.
It's a lot.
I cover all that on my Car Coach Reports channel.
I will be sharing this story as well on my channel because I think it's important for people to understand the behind the scenes and not just what's up front.
And Lee's got a deeper dive because he's literally in the oil.
And I think for consumers, they really need to start shopping around, looking for deals.
There really isn't a choice.
The dealer might have a better price.
You never know because if they're buying oil right from Deckman, they might be able to offer you a better price.
But maybe that quick oil change place doesn't or doing it yourself, you can't locate the oil that you need.
So always shop around like you would with anything else.
Just to jump in.
So I think you're right.
I think the average cost of an oil change is going to be $100.
Just five quart at a quick loop that, you know, the in and out and that, you know, no professional mechanic, just the quick loop oil changes are going to be $100.
And most Americans today, if they drive a midsize SUV or a truck to put $100 of gas into their car, they're going to drive for four to 500 miles.
They're going to go back to the gas station and do it again.
When they go to the quick loop and get their oil change or a dealer independent, they're going to spend the $100 and they get 5,000 miles before they need to do it again.
So when I know it used to be 50 and it's going to be 100.
But it's really in that perspective.
And maybe it's because I sell oil for a living and I'm getting crushed by my customers that are, you know, so I'm trying to put it in perspective like it's going to be more expensive.
The other truth is the people who are most impacted by this are the school teachers, the nurses, the police officers, anybody who can't.
It's just a cost.
It's just added cost to their everyday expenses.
A lot of the shop owners, right, they're going to have to raise their price and cover that cost because they're going to take a bath if they don't.
But the end user is really, I mean, they're going to feel it because they're going to pay $100 for gas.
They're going to pay $100 for oil change.
They're going to go their electric bill, their utility bills.
I mean, this is energy across the board in finished lubricants.
I don't know if you would call it an energy, but certainly it's a critical supply that everybody's going to have to use.
Lauren, I loved his analogy.
$100 for fuel that gets you 500 miles, $100 for an oil change that gets you $5,000.
There is a great logical piece of this is why I'm going to do it and I'm not going to argue.
I've got to keep it going.
Customers do it all the time.
I mean, I am a diesel SUV and it says to replace the oil.
I replace the oil quicker.
It says you can go 10,000 miles on an oil change.
I'm like, and diesel?
Not a chance.
But I'm using full synthetic and I'm on top of it, but most people aren't in the same situation as me.
They got their daily driver.
It's a gasoline powered Honda Civic and they're like, hey, you know, it says $5,000 in the owner's manual.
Go $7,500.
It's not going to hurt the car.
And then a lot of these full synthetic oils say you can go $7,500 and they'll go 10,000.
That's not good because you're actually damaging the engine.
And so in the long haul, what you don't realize is that, hey, suddenly you've got a problem
and that engine that built from your mechanic is no longer just an oil change.
Okay, now you got damage to the cylinders and vehicles not running right.
You're causing other component issues.
I mean, these are the things that no one thinks of.
It's a very short-sighted business for consumers.
They don't think about tires at all, that their tires are bald and they're skating through an intersection.
Then they go, you know, maybe I need tires or I'm not thinking about an oil change until that check engine light comes on and go, yeah, maybe I should do something.
They never think ahead.
Although we as in the industry think about it all the time and remind people you need to be on top of this.
You need to get in front of this.
Putting your money in now will save you the money down the road.
That's true with anything.
You know, if your roof is leaking, get in front of it now and have the roof repaired.
Don't wait until the leak is so bad that your house is getting flooded.
Unfortunately for consumers, their eyes when it comes to cars is, I'll get to it when it's a problem.
If you're leasing a car, many people will just blow it off.
And then the lease comes in for trade and then they get a bill because they can tell who the oil is and then they're like, how come I'm getting a bill?
So just because you lease or when you don't own the car, you still are responsible for the maintenance and that has to be forefront.
And I guess we continue to talk to people, all of us do in our industry.
But I think that the higher price is going to cause people to take a break from spending the money.
And that was true during COVID also.
When cars got more expensive, everything got more expensive.
It was unexpected.
Toilet paper.
People were hoarding, by the way, toilet paper to resell it on the secondary market.
You were seeing it on Facebook market, Craigslist, you know, eBay.
I was like, buy a pellet load of toilet paper.
Just to jump in on a point you made.
So I do a lot of fleet stuff also with trucks and trucking companies.
And we do a lot with oil analysis.
And when I'm talking with the fleet owners and maybe now more so to the automotive side is there is no doubt that preventative maintenance will cost eight times less than reactive maintenance.
So if you wait until you can see here or smell a problem, get your checkbook out because it's going to.
Yes, 100%.
Yeah.
Great point.
There's so much that went on with this episode and I appreciate you both being here from both of your perspectives.
Let's just discuss something panic buys.
I think you may have talked about it, Lauren, in your article.
I can't quite remember from a consumer's perspective.
Stop going in there and buying 10 cases of oil.
I mean, because guess what?
In two months, you're going to look at that and say, why the hell did I do this?
And then you're going to go out and sell it in a loss somewhere.
And Lee, from all of the clients that you have from fleets and agriculture and shops and dealers, do you feel or sense?
Tell me about the words panic buy.
I haven't seen people panic buying because of fear of running out.
I've seen people panic buying because of fear of the increased price.
So one of my best fleet customers was giving me a little bit of a hard time over some products.
And I've got some great relationships with this customer.
And I was just explaining like, we're doing the best we can.
He let me know that he could buy some of his widgets cheaper elsewhere.
And I said, I understand that.
I get it.
But call them next week and see.
And although the consumer certainly wants to shop around when it comes to supply, now is a terrible time to be looking for better, cheaper, faster because everybody's in the same boat.
And I'm talking from the dealerships to the part store chains to the independence to the trucking companies and the farms.
Everybody's seeing this maybe more so in the automotive world because of those higher end synthetic light ultra low this products.
But that's kind of where we're at.
Great advice.
Really good advice.
Lauren, how about you panic buys?
I think panic buying is always a mistake.
I didn't do it during COVID.
I mean, this is how I see it.
If you need an oil change in the near future, so you buy the oil in advance if you're a DIY or if you're going to your local place, I suggest waiting.
The way President Trump works, whether you like him or not, is a lot of things happen behind scenes that you'll never hear about.
You will never hear the results one way or the other.
So tomorrow morning you could wake up and everything's resolved and the straight is open, or maybe it's not.
But the fact is when it happens and it will happen soon, especially if you listen to the people that are experts in the field like Lee and Carm, you'll find that this could change at any time.
And the last thing you want to do is buy pallet loads and pallets or 55 gallon drums full of oil and then find out you paid a premium price.
And then, of course, a month from now they're like, no, no, we're going to lower the price.
Because obviously the gas stations do the same thing that the oil companies do.
They raise the price based on what it's going to take to refill the tank.
And if they know that the tank under the ground where you get your gasoline is going to cost more to fill up, they raise the prices now.
And the one thing you will not see in our industry is a lost leader.
An oil change is not a lost leader and they have you come in and they also nail you for brake pads and everything else.
They do that at gas stations.
Let's say they make the money on the milk and the chips and the beer and whatever else you buy in their little convenience store.
So with that thought in mind, panic buying is probably a bad idea.
Just like if you're hoarding gasoline, I promise you, and I know people that are, they're buying 55 gallon drums and they got the proper ventilation.
You really need to think about what you're going to need and only get what you need because like they said, they're not going away.
And there will be alternative solutions.
I'm sure that companies like Deckman are looking at where else can we get these products?
Where else could what can we use in exchange?
A lot of companies are doing that and anytime there's a shortage, there's always another company trying to come up.
And if you think it is like toilet paper would came out of that was a lot of companies saying, well, wait a minute, there's all kinds of weird stuff in this toilet paper that could cause all kinds of issues with your health.
Here's another product made out of bamboo.
I'm not saying I'm using it, but there is bamboo toilet paper out there and the prices have come down.
Initially it was high because they were starting to make it.
So you're going to start seeing alternative products that will work.
All this is going to take time.
But the goal in it is that this doesn't happen again because who knows what's going to happen down the road?
Who's in office?
What's going to happen on a global basis?
We can only project and not be accurate.
So don't panic by on anything.
It's the same thing that happens at Karm and I live in Western New York.
When there's a snowstorm and you go to the local grocery store, there's no milk, there's no bread, there's no eggs.
And then the storm hits and it's gone and you go back the next day and the shelves are bare the day after it's all there.
It's all new product is back on the shelf.
So who does that help?
The grocery stores.
In our case, you're helping all these big oil companies, much bigger than deckmen, make a lot of profit.
So your best bet is to be patient and wait.
Lee's also from Western New York, Lauren too.
So there's three Western New Yorkers here.
The word I took away from you, Lauren, and a great final dissertation of yours was the word patience.
That's true.
And I think that's what we need from both the commercial side, Lee, from the consumers side, Lauren, how you framed your article.
The Great Mortar Oil Panic is mostly BS and drivers are paying the price.
It's a great article.
Go to Car Coach Reports at Lauren FIX.
That's your social media, right?
All my social media is at Lauren FIX.
You can go to Car Coach Reports either on YouTube.
I'm on Rumble.
I'm on every form of social media.
I try to get to as many people as possible because the goal is like Lee and I are both doing the same.
Don't panic, know the facts.
There's all kinds of great content coming out and we just want people to be knowledgeable because as we've always said,
as your mother said, as your teacher said, knowledge is power.
Yeah, exactly.
And Lee, I loved your point during your last piece and that was sooner or later, everything is going to catch up to itself.
You could panic buy or panic buy from this particular reason is I want to buy it at 50 cents a gallon less.
And so I know I'm going to be making more money on it even though I've raised my price.
Is that a great profit strategy?
Maybe it is, but I think as a small businessman, you got other things to worry about than that.
I love this.
Short notice.
There's so much going on with this oil thing.
I wanted to get this recorded and try to release this hopefully within a week of recording this because we've got so many other things in the fire.
But I appreciate Lauren Fix and you being here.
And of course, Lee Rotis from Deckman Oil and it's been great to have you on the show.
Appreciate your input.
Thanks for being on board to listen and learn from the Premier Automotive Repair Business Podcast, Remarkable Results Radio.
Get your episodic education on the ARPN listening app at automotiverepairpodcastnetwork.com.
Also enjoy the podcast on our Carm Capriato YouTube channel.
Carm is all for advancing the professional automotive service industry.
Until next time.
About this episode
The hosts dig into the “great motor oil panic,” arguing it’s “mostly BS” while explaining what’s actually tightening supply: refining capacity limits usable product, and pricing can spike due to both market narratives and speculation. They break down why engine-oil shortages don’t always mirror fuel issues, how ultra-low-viscosity and Group III base oils get hit, and why bulk buying can ripple into real shop shortages. Practical advice follows: don’t skip maintenance, avoid panic hoarding, and “be patient and wait.”
Thanks to our Partners, NAPA TRACS, Today's Class, KUKUI, and Pit Crew LoyaltyWatch Full Video Episode
Is there really a motor oil shortage, or is the industry caught up in another wave of panic buying?
In this episode of Remarkable Results Radio, host Carm Capriotto welcomes automotive expert Lauren Fix and Deckman Oil Territory Sales Manager Lee Rhodus to separate fact from fiction surrounding today's motor oil supply concerns.
Together, they examine what's driving skyrocketing oil prices, why certain synthetic oils are becoming harder to source, and how fear-driven purchasing is creating additional strain throughout the supply chain. Most importantly, they discuss what repair shops and vehicle owners can do to navigate the uncertainty without making costly mistakes.
What You'll Learn
Why the world is not actually running out of motor oil
How global shortages of base oils and additives are impacting the availability of ultra-low viscosity synthetic oils such as 0W-8, 0W-12, and 0W-16.
The role panic buying plays in creating artificial shortages and driving prices even higher.
Why motor oil prices are increasing at unprecedented rates and what that means for repair shops and consumers.
The risks of delaying routine maintenance as oil changes become more expensive.
Practical advice for shop owners on managing inventory and communicating with customers during periods of market uncertainty.
The current motor oil situation is real, but panic is making it worse. While supply constraints and rising prices are creating challenges across the automotive industry, experts agree that hoarding inventory and delaying maintenance are not the answers. Patience, informed decision-making, and a focus on preventative maintenance remain the best strategies for both repair shops and vehicle owners. As supply chains stabilize, those who avoid fear-based decisions today will likely be in the strongest position tomorrow.
Lee Rhodus, Territory Sales Manager, Deckman Oil.
Lauren Fix, Car Coach Reports, The Drive Podcast, is an automotive expert and analyst based in Buffalo, NY. She is an established television and radio personality with over 30 years experience in the auto industry as a journalist, consumer advocate, and race car driver. She was Oprah’s Auto Expert and is currently a regular contributor and reporter to Fox News, CNN, Inside Edition, and the Weather Channel.
Thanks to our Partner, NAPA TRACS
NAPA TRACS will move your shop into the SMS fast lane with onsite training and six days a week of support and local representation. Find NAPA TRACS on the Web at http://napatracs.com/Thanks to our Partner, Today's Class
Optimize training with Today's Class: In just 5 minutes daily, boost knowledge retention and improve team performance. Find Today's Class on the web at https://www.todaysclass.com/Thanks to our Partner, KUKUI
Stop juggling multiple marketing tools. KUKUI’s integrated platform delivers 4x better website conversions, automated follow-up, and real-time ROI tracking. Get industry-leading customer support with KUKUI at https://www.kukui.com/Thanks to our Partner, Pit Crew Loyalty
You’re probably tired of chasing new customers who never return. We understand. Pit Crew Loyalty ends the one-and-done cycle, turning first visits into lasting, reliable revenue at https://www.pitcrewloyalty.com/Connect with the Podcast:
