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Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the P1 Podcast with Matt and Tommy.
We're going to be diving into all three championship contenders.
Across three bonus podcast episodes, as a championship showdown doesn't come around
very often. The first since 2021 and the first with more than two drivers in the hunt since 2010.
Oh, we're getting down to crunch time now, aren't we, Tom Bellingham?
Insane. Yeah, as we've said many times before, drink it in and soak it up because this happens
so rarely in Formula One. So I hope you're looking forward to this one. I certainly am
looking forward to talking about this and just let's feed the hype. Leave a like,
subscribe to this channel. If you listen to audio, leave us a five-star review. If you're on
YouTube, leave us a like, subscribe. Let's get this pumping because I am absolutely
vibing with this and this shouldn't happen. This should not be the case,
but it is. And we're going to dive into all three drivers right now. So let's begin with Oscar
Piastri. I was going to say, in the red corner, but there's more than two drivers in the championship
fight. But Oscar Piastri is 16 points behind. He's had seven race victories in Bahrain, China,
Saudi, Miami, Spain, Spa, and Zandvoort with 15 podiums. So let's talk about Oscar Piastri
so far and his season. We thought for two-thirds of this Formula One championship that Oscar just
had it. Just about had it, right? He wasn't home and dry. He wasn't two, three race victories ahead,
but he had a comfortable buffer. And every time it sort of started to narrow back down and get
a bit closer with Lando, a big moment like Zandvoort came in or perhaps Canada, these
moments where you think, okay, well, Oscar's clearly just got the, he's the ice cold man,
as everyone was saying. Then it changed. And the last Bahrain Qatar, the last six, seven races
prior to that was championship losing form. So a very, it's not a tale of two halves,
it's a tale of two-thirds and one-third. Yeah, it's so true. Like if we go way back to the start of
the season, I think no one gave Oscar Piastri a shot, did they really? Like all the talk and
there's probably a bit of, you know, us being in the UK and the UK media, obviously, and us
watching it on UK TV. All the hype seemed to be around Lando Norris. Can he do it this time?
Came close last year, didn't do it. McLaren are looking absolutely amazing.
So can Lando win the world championship this year? Oscar had some really good moments in
the year in 2024, looked very quick, but he didn't have that consistency throughout the season.
And I don't think many people, I must admit, and me included, really gave him a chance and
thought he'd be in the world championship fight or be able to beat Lando based on what we
saw last year. Of course, he's still very new as well, only his third full season.
But my word was he impressive. Right from the get-go, really, obviously, Australia was a tiny
error which cost him big, big points. He was going to finish second behind Lando on the road
and was actually chasing him for the victory. And then we look at the amazing run of form
that he went on, as you mentioned, like reading out his victories. He won in China,
then was in that train in Japan, but then won in Bahrain, won in Saudi, won in Miami,
and we thought, wow, Oscar Piastri, where have you come from? And he was absolutely
sensational at the start of the year. He was. After Australia, he went on a run of one, two,
three, four, five, six, seven, eight, eight podiums. Then he had a fourth in Canada,
then brings another six podiums home after that, and then we get to Azerbaijan.
Let's first and foremost, before we talk about perhaps more negative moments of
Oscar's season, let's go with what has been his best moment of the season. For me,
there's been a lot of highlights for Oscar, as you said. We were kind of
sat here going, whoa, Oscar, I was unfamiliar because there was just so many faultless victories.
His best moment of the season, I think in terms of championship swing, it has to be Zanvort.
That was the moment where I imagine he started to believe that he could be world champion.
Of course, it took Lando not to have a good weekend with his car
failing on him. I'd say that's up there, but then on the flip side of that,
I would say even the first win in China, bouncing back from Australia,
I know Lando had a break problem in China towards the end, but Oscar was,
that was like a statement drive. Of course, Lewis Hamilton won the sprint in China,
don't forget that, just wanted to mention that one, but the main race was
just such a statement drive from Oscar. He won just by just under 10 seconds. I know Lando
was managing at the end, but that was like a case of, oh, wow. Oscar could well have won Australia,
was at least on the pace. We're now in China and he's won that one as well.
It's difficult to pinpoint one for sure. It depends how you weigh it up.
Yeah, it's had a lot of impressive wins, which is why it's difficult to pinpoint one moment.
I think for me, Zanvort is, in terms of like, it felt like the championship that he was starting
to get his hands on it, but that was mainly because of the Lando failure.
It was, of course, a weekend that he was going to win anyway and was brilliant,
you know, pole position, fastest lap. In terms of like most impressive victories that the two
that stand out to me are Bahrain, where his teammate was really struggling, made errors,
and we, you know, we thought after the first round, and we'll talk about obviously Lando,
later, Oscar winning that race in Bahrain, getting pole position, getting fastest lap,
a comfortable victory, and Lando having struggles was a real like, okay, we need to
seriously consider Oscar Piastri as a world championship winner here, even that early
in the season, because as we said at the start, like he wasn't really
giving too much of a hoax, a contender, like as someone that can win, and the other one that
stands out for me is actually Spa, the Belgian Grand Prix, because Oscar Piastri had
just lost the British Grand Prix through an error of the Saved Car, which I'm sure we'll
get onto when we talk about his worst moments. And it's like, how is he going to bounce back?
And he made a fantastic start, overtook his teammate Lando, resisted the pressure from Lando
to take that victory. And at that moment, it's mad to be here thinking he'd only take
at this time of, you know, until we get to the final race, we don't know how it's going to go,
but only one more victory after that race and, you know, Spa, quite early-ish in the season,
you know, round 13 of 24, still a long way to go. But he was just looking so comfortable then,
I think that was such an impressive drive from him. It really was, yeah. Spa was a great
shout with it being wet to dry and plenty of reasons to make a mistake. Third season,
let's not forget as well, Oscar Piastri, he feels like part of the furniture these days,
but he is still very much learning and has been learning a lot this season, no doubt.
Let's go to worst moment of the year. Where do you place Oscar Piastri's worst moment?
Well, I'm sure everyone listening watching right now is going to say one word and that's Baku.
Of course, Baku, on paper, is his worst moment. For him to look like it was so
comfortable for him really, after Zambor, we thought the championship's won. A lot of
people were saying, oh, the championship's won. We said never count it out, but it was obviously
more than likely that he had a great opportunity to win it and was looking comfortable.
And he just had the absolute stinker of all weekends to crash in qualifying, crash in the
main race as well, on the first lap, jump the start as well and drop all the way to the back.
It really doesn't get much worse than that, but it's an insane thing to say that I'm not
actually going to pick it as the worst moment of the year because he was there with Lando and I think
the most shocking thing for me was Austin when he got to Austin and his pace was absolutely
nowhere. And it was like, why is there this massive gap now? And it's something he continued into,
of course, Mexico, Brazil. And I think that was a weird one because Baku,
it was obviously awful, had a really poor run, but he was matching Lando in terms of pace
before, of course, he crashed and had a nightmare. But Austin was like, what's happened to Oscar Piazzari?
Whereas all this Pacecon, he was so far off in qualifying and then so far off in the race.
And it was that moment where we thought, is Oscar really struggling here? Is this like...
And caused the crash in the sprint. And caused the crash, of course.
And crashed in the sprint in Brazil as well. There's so many, sadly,
unexpected lowlights for Oscar over the last seven or eight races. I have to lock in Baku,
that there's no, there's no other weekend that comes close, because literally everything went
wrong. And that was, we questioned it at that moment, that was the beginning of the end,
potentially, of his championship challenge. Unless there's something crazy that happens
in Abu Dhabi, from there on, he has not, or had not been on the podium until Qatar.
That is a disaster in terms of the fall off of form. But then, yeah, there are some
medium lowlights as well of just the pace. But crashing in the sprint in Brazil, crashing in
the sprint in Austin, of course, gets away with it with the fact that he took out Lando as well.
Although now Max Verstappen is the closest challenger to Lando. So is it really that good
at all these days for Oscar when he is now behind Max in the championship?
Now we're talking about this 104 points, that 104 points was to Oscar Piastri,
the Max Verstappen deficit. Max is now ahead. So Max has gained 108 points on Oscar, which is
insane. Ridiculous. So for Oscar, it's, I really hope for his sake, he's learned why
he's had that stint of six or seven races where he wasn't, wasn't on the pace.
Because if that becomes a consistent trend, or if the end of the season just isn't that good for him,
he will struggle to bring a world championship over the line. He isn't only his third season,
as we say. So there's plenty of time for him to continue to develop and learn.
But yeah, quite a few lowlights to mention, but Baku definitely takes the title that you don't
want as worst moment of the year. It made it so shocking as well. I think even more
shocking with how we saw it, because I think after Zanvo in particular, but even before this,
I think even the discussions before what happened in Zanvo, well Oscar Piastri obviously had that
amazing opportunity where he got 25 points on his title rival Lando Norris. All the talk was like
Oscar's so cool and calm that he is going to be the one that's not going to get nervous,
not make mistakes, not crack under the pressure of a world championship.
And yeah, it is that form, isn't it, that's really, really cost him towards the end.
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So we're going to also look at the thing that could potentially have cost him the title. We'll
do it for the other two drivers as well. May well be similarly linked to worst moment of the year.
But for me, of course we have Abidabi to go. Qatar could well have been the thing that
changes it all. I know it would be 12 points to Lando that he'd still have to make up in Abidabi
but we could well reflect on that one. Baku is of course the one that's at the top of my list
again for this because it was a disaster but then again at the same time was it that many
points lost considering his pace? No. And Lando didn't pick up many but in terms of like
he wasn't running in the top three, four and then crashed. He was struggling for pace anyway.
So then you look all the way back to the first race of the season. When you look at actual points
lost to your championship rivals, Australia is probably number one because Lando finished first
and Max finished second. Of course that is the first race of the season. It feels like so,
so long ago. But if we're pinpointing moments where big point swings have happened,
that's one of them. Of course the retirement is a big swing in Max's favour in Azerbaijan
and then from then on obviously we've spoken about that sort of last third of the season. So
for me it still has to be Baku for now but Australia gets a notable mention.
I've got to throw Monza into the mix for me. I think there's two sides to it.
Yes, in terms of points it's not really a huge amount. You're just swapping between second
and third. I am adamant that something shifted with Oscar after that moment
because you look at his form, first, third, first, third, third, first, fourth, second,
second, first, second, first and then Monza, then it's retired fourth, fifth, fifth, fifth.
Like you can literally pinpoint the Italian Grand Prix as the moment where his form goes.
Some people will say, oh, you've got to deal with these things and that's part of being a driver,
but his form fell off so badly after that moment and it's a moment that is so controversial and
could still well be controversial if he loses the title by a handful of points because the
switch of course with Lando with the slow pit stop, he fully believed that they shouldn't have
switched and it put him in a really unfair position that he had to give position, a position back to
his teammate who'd had a slow pit stop and I think the whole media pressure and fall out and
everything over like the team want Lando to win, the team want Lando to win now.
Oscar's number two driver can't have helped his mentality and everything going into the
next few races. So I really do think Monza was such a big turning point. It's got to be up there.
Yep, that's a very fair point. Without that switch, all three are separated by 10 points.
Oscar would be one behind Max and Lando would be nine ahead. That is of Max Verstappen. That is
even crazier. It's crazy scenario to talk about and think about.
I also want to throw the thing I teased in driver ratings now of a scenario that might
have left us on the cliffhanger.
I did. What is it?
So this is insane mad thoughts, but I've not seen anyone mention it.
So we all know Oscar Piastri needs a miracle to win this title. Is it weirdly better for him
to be further behind Max Verstappen? So Max Verstappen has to throw everything on the line
against Lando because realistically the only way Oscar can win the title is if they both
DNF. And if Max Verstappen goes for a dive bomb and takes out Lando Norris,
is he doing that if he's further behind in the title or Oscar Piastri's closer and stuff?
So in a weird way, I think that is Oscar's chance to win the title that there's a collision.
And maybe, and we saw it with Sebastian Vettel, with Mark Webber and Alonzo,
two drivers focusing on each other in the title.
We've seen it before where like the forgotten driver can sometimes benefit from that,
that the two drivers are focused on themselves. So maybe it's not such a bad thing that Oscar
Piastri is almost like counted out because the expectation, he can just go for something
completely different or hope that his title rivals collide.
Yes. So he's 16 points behind Lando, which means he would need to win and Lando finish
no higher than six. If they collided and both retired basically landed,
so basically Oscar just has to finish second on the road.
Yes, if they both retire, which is unlikely, right? That's quite a large collision that must
happen to take both drivers out of the race. If you think collisions can just be a front
wing change. A bit like Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri at the first corner of last year's
Grand Prix. Just throwing that one into the mix. Yes, indeed. I hear
your point. I don't think Oscar Piastri is also thinking that Max,
should Oscar be ahead of Max Verstappen? Max Verstappen is treating Oscar Piastri just like
he would Lando Norris and he is dive bombing the life out of him no matter what. So I don't
think it changes much. Unless it's Lando Max Oscar on the grid, that's the top three,
then yes, you can expect some Max Shenanigans 100%. So yeah, of course Oscar's biggest hope
is something happening between his two title rivals for sure. And finally on Oscar Piastri,
percentage of how likely he is to win the title. So it will add up to 100% across the three drivers.
I am locking in for Oscar Piastri a 10% chance of winning the World Championship. It is a massive
outside shot and it's going to have to require something crazy as we've mentioned.
So 10%. I will go for 4%. Oh, God, so why couldn't you just make it easy? Why couldn't you've done it
in like five divisions of 5% because you're going to then come to the end and it will come to 121%.
Hey, I got a C at GCSE, right? Yeah, I'll go 5% then. 5%. Okay, all right.
Sebastian Vettel has won from further back, so we shall see.
True. Thank you, everyone, for listening to this episode. Join us for part two,
where we'll be talking about the man who might be about to pull off
the most unbelievable comeback in the history of Formula One.
Dun, dun, dun. See you tomorrow.
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About this episode
Matt and Tommy dive deep into Oscar Piastri's 2024 Formula One season, highlighting his impressive early victories and podium streak that positioned him as a strong title contender. They discuss his unexpected struggles in the latter part of the season, including key mistakes and crashes, particularly in Baku and Austin, which severely impacted his championship chances. The hosts analyze pivotal moments like the controversial Monza race and speculate on scenarios that could still allow Piastri to clinch the title, despite being behind Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. The episode blends detailed race analysis with championship dynamics and driver psychology.
Original notes
Join us for the first of three special podcast episodes looking at each of the drivers who will fight for the Championship in Abu Dhabi this weekend!
First up is the man who led the Championship for so much of the season, but a dip in form has now left him hoping for a miracle. It's Oscar Piastri - but what was his best moment of the season? What moment might be the pivotal one that cost him everything? Let's get into it!
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