Our 2025 Azerbaijan GP predictions

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Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the P1 Podcast with Matt and Tommy.

We've returned.

I felt like I was about to celebrate the fact we'd been gone for about four weeks.

It feels that way with literally just one week off.

But it's Baku.

It's Azerbaijan.

It's fast.

It's furious.

It's well done.

If you get the, come on, you, well done Baku.

You know, how are we going to be well done in Baku at the end of Sunday?

I hope so, because Baku only delivers bangers or stinkers and nothing in between.

So it was very much weighted towards bangers initially, wasn't it?

Yeah, we have.

I think the first one, it was the European Grand Prix, if I'm...

Which was terrible.

And then they had the two amazing ones and everyone was like, Baku is the best track ever.

And then pretty much since then there's not been a good one.

Then last year's was really good.

So it's very much, as you say, one or the other.

What isn't one or the other is the fact that it's very close between you and me, Tommy.

42-41, it's the most hotly contested championship in Formula One right now.

And we're going to get into our predictions very shortly.

But before we do, we have a five star review for the P1 Live show to share with you.

So if you want to get involved, please do.

If you've been to one of our P1 Live shows and you had a great time,

please let us know by leaving a review.

You can do that on Ticketmaster and we're doing the delusion tour, aren't we, Tommy?

We are.

We've done Amsterdam.

We had two shows there, which was awesome.

And we had a lovely review from now Elizabeth, who gave us a five out of five.

Come on.

And said, two P1 Live shows in Manchester and can't wait to come to another.

They are hilarious, fun and so much more than just a podcast live show.

Matt and Tommy also always make sure to make time to meet with everyone afterwards

and our lovely human beings.

I don't know about Tommy.

It's also fine to go alone.

Everyone is so friendly and you're guaranteed to make new F1 friends.

If you're doubting whether to buy tickets or not, do it.

You won't regret it.

Now, this wasn't a burner account, but I thought I'd just share that one

because it's almost too nice.

People don't know it's real.

Yeah, it is too nice.

Thank you, Nella Elizabeth, otherwise known as Tom Bellingham.

But people don't, you know, don't actually kind of get what a P1 Live show is

and that why would I come to one?

Well, we've had a lot of glowing reviews.

So thank you for that.

Right.

Let's get into our predictions as a by Jean.

Tommy, it is your turn to go first.

It sure is.

Good surprise.

I am going for Ollie Bearman.

Bit of a rogue one, something a bit different.

A risky one.

He's had a little breakthrough drive that we said.

He's also basically like one incident away from a race band.

So I hope for his sake, I've not cursed him into that.

She's actually quite insane.

I don't feel like it's been really spoken about much to say that

he's, of course, a rookie.

So he's got a whole year to wait really, well, at least till the

kind of start of the year.

I can't remember exactly what he picked up his first one, but

it's a long time till they get chalked off.

So he needs to be a bit careful.

So with all of that, you've said a good surprise.

And is that if he doesn't get banned?

You're like, well, that's maybe that's the loophole.

No, no, I think he was good till last year.

I remember him.

He was the super sub last year.

So why not?

Okay.

But no mistakes for Ollie Bearman.

I was convinced I was going to have to change my good surprise.

I'm really glad I won't have to.

My good surprise.

It's Kimmy Antonelli.

My guy.

Come on.

Let's keep the momentum up.

Let's just do something good this weekend, Kimmy.

Please.

And honestly, not crashing the car or beaching it.

We can't beach it around Baku.

That's a W.

That's a point.

There's no gravel traps.

There is no gravel traps, but there definitely are escape roads

that you can get stuck down.

So I've gone for Kimmy Antonelli.

I hope for his sake, genuinely, honestly, as much as I want the

point, I also would love the story that comes with this of

Kimmy having a really solid, non-mistake weekend.

That would be lovely for everybody watching.

And he needs it.

He really needs to get some of these some good results in

this second half of the season.

Okay.

We head to a big flop.

Charlotte Clair.

Oh, what?

What?

I said Charlotte Clair.

Oh, okay.

I've said it out loud.

I wasn't expecting this.

I've said it out loud.

Then I just remembered that my big flop is doing really well at

the moment.

I forgot about that.

I'm on a very good streak right now of big flops.

Still a crazy sentence to say out loud.

I've gone for Charlotte Clair because if he doesn't get

pole, that's a big flop confirmed.

Okay.

So you've already spoiled pole position.

Can I admit something now?

It's quite funny.

What's that?

Why I'm so shocked by this.

I was so convinced to go Charlotte Clair pole.

I already made the thumbnail.

I did.

I already made it.

Okay.

So I'm not being predictable.

For my predictions, I don't like it.

I hate it.

The reason I've gone for a big flop, Charlotte Clair is

it just can't go as well.

I know that hasn't he finished sixth, fifth, fourth,

DNF third, second.

That's his Baku results.

So it's either DNF or P1.

I just can't see it.

Tommy, I can't.

Just Ferrari.

They've given me random bits of hope this year,

but less so.

We haven't had that many bits of hope.

And Monza, they were just nowhere in terms of race pace.

I know obviously he got back towards the sort of the

rear end of the McLarens, but that wasn't even for the win.

And also the McLarens were doing all kinds of weird

gaffuffling as we as we all know what happened.

But yeah, I just can't see them being him even on the

podium to be honest with you.

So it's sad.

And hopefully I have so much delusion, so much hope,

so much optimism.

Maybe it's time for me to go into a weekend depressed

and then I can't get any worse than that.

Yeah, maybe, maybe.

I mean, he's the Baku specialist, particularly in

qualifying, isn't he?

I mean, he's so quick around here.

Has he been on pole pretty much every year for the last

goodness how long?

He's been on pole for the last four Baku Grand Prix.

That's crazy, isn't it?

But how many has he won?

That's what I mean.

Well, yeah, that's also true.

So that's why I'm going with Big Flop,

is that I need to stop believing in him clearly for

maybe things I will take zero points if he wins the race.

100% take right now.

What's your big flop, Tommy?

My big flop is Oscar Piastri.

So Tommy is trying to cook up a championship fight.

My guy, I see it.

No, I just I can't shake this feeling that this weekend

there's going to be something controversial and something

something going on.

You know what happens, Tommy, when we start thinking

that things are going to be the most boring weekend.

I know, but I don't want this to happen.

But I just couldn't shake the feeling that that, yeah,

something's something's potentially going to happen.

I don't think this is going to be I don't think it's going

to be, yeah, I don't think it's going to be through

his kind of own fault on it like poor driving.

Of course, he's very, very good here.

One last year made that brilliant move to win the race.

Can't remember who won.

Yeah, who was that?

No, I don't care.

And yeah, I just just got a just got a feeling.

OK, Tommy's got a feeling.

We feel a lot of things and usually they're wrong.

So that's why we got one point last time.

Yeah, thanks for watching.

Right, let's go to a poll position, Tommy.

I'm going for Max Verstappen again.

Why not?

When you say again, you don't mean your own predictions

because you did not back.

No, I didn't.

I didn't.

But this time, yeah, Max Verstappen joint most polls this year.

Baku's a very different circuit, of course, to Monza.

But I'm feeling that I don't I don't I know I literally said

through the whole last podcast that Monza's just,

you know, just a one off and all this kind of stuff.

Looted one on this podcast.

And I'm not for a second thinking that the Max is,

you know, charging through to make this amazing championship

come back that some people seem to think,

which I'm like, please, no, no chance.

Yeah, but if you get 25 points, Oscar Oscar,

Piastri big flop comes in.

What happens to Lando?

We don't know.

There's a 25 point swing in the next few races.

It's still not a no in Max's favor.

But now we'll speak to future Tommy about that one

because right now I can see that I know

what a delusional eye looks like.

There's a little twinkle.

Okay, poll position for me.

I don't get Tommy's feeling.

I've gone for Oscar Piastri.

Okay.

I don't have the feeling that Tommy has that something's going to go wrong for Oscar.

I kind of based it a little bit on, of course, last year,

it was one of his standout drives.

Of course, that was the whole chatter.

Wasn't it at the time of the McLaren rear wing and things like that?

And wasn't it wasn't it that they there was a video that was shared online

and that's how the Paddock got to know about how much it was flexing and stuff like that.

It was it was some insane story like that.

But anyway, back to this year.

I think Oscar will get pole.

It'll be close once again, but I'm backing Oscar for that.

Let's head to third in the race.

I am locking in Max Verstappen.

I am I'm backing the fact that Max will be competitive this weekend.

I don't think he's going to have a Monza Red Bull Max fans.

And that's including you, Tommy.

I think Tommy, you are awake to the fact that Max is probably not going to

dominate this weekend.

But at the same time, I think that he won't just disappear back to what we

saw in Hungary or things like that.

Back who is still a very fast, fast circuit.

There's a lot more heartbreaking zones into 90 degree corners than there are

in in Monza, for example.

But it's yeah, I still see that the Red Bull and Max will be relatively good.

So that's why I've gone for third.

P3.

I have gone for Charlotte Clair.

I think he's going to get a podium.

Now I regret it.

Yeah, because you've obviously gone big flop.

He's going to have a shocker.

Will we get another castle section moment?

I don't know.

Probably not.

But look, I think he's going to have a good.

I think he's going to I think he'll have a good race.

But not enough for that victory that still alludes them, of course,

because my word, we're getting we're getting close to the end of the

season without a Ferrari win.

I know that you've you sprinkled that with I biggest flop them at

the start of the year.

Please happen.

Your smug face at the end of the year will be unbelievable.

And I don't want it.

I don't want it.

Okay.

Second position.

Second position I'm going for.

Lando Norris.

Oh, then if that means you have to change your prediction,

we're about to find out.

But yeah, going for Lando P2.

And yeah, I think he's going to have a good weekend.

But not the best weekend possible.

Thought I was home and dry.

Thought I was going to just get my predictions and I can't believe

because I was thinking there's no way that you're going to go for

Oscar P1, but you're going to back Mac.

I have to change my prediction because I was going to go Lando

Norris second place.

Okay.

So my second position is.

Charlotte Clair.

I knew.

The second there was a pause long enough to not immediately

just go for Oscar.

You were just like, yeah.

Look, I could easily just be boring and put Oscar in second

and Lando in first, but you know, you've convinced me,

Tommy, you said he's going to have a good race and I went

actually, you know what?

Yes.

So now I'm sort of covering my bets here because I don't

think Charlotte will win due to what Ferrari can bring to

the table in race trim.

But a second place for him isn't insanely ridiculous.

But it is kind of ridiculous.

No, it's fine.

I've locked it in now.

It's done.

It's all your fault, Tommy.

That was not going to happen.

It was not going to be my top three.

Okay.

Let's go to P1.

I can't block you.

I know you exactly who you're going to go for and I

can't block you.

So in first position, I'm going to go for this.

This is a difficult point in the season where I'm like,

do I, do I think about the points here in or do you know

that I'm thinking about my own predictions here, right?

I've like poll Oscar.

But if that's wrong, then maybe I go for first land though.

You know, there's so many games right now.

I'm going for Oscar Piatri P1.

I'm just going to, I'm just putting all my eggs in

Oscar's basket.

If your big flop comes in, this is actually interesting,

isn't it?

You've gone for a third place, Charlotte for my flop

and then I've gone for a poll and win for your flop.

Yeah.

So one of us is going to have a bad time.

Basically, you'd think with all those predictions.

Well, I hope not.

It's actually insane how much I feel like I'm just

losing this lead and I'm going to regret it immediately

because I've not gone for a McLaren.

Oh, I thought you didn't say I've gone for Max.

But now I've gone for Max for the win.

And I don't know why I think I'll regret it.

I just couldn't shake the feeling.

I just went with my first vibe and traditionally maybe not

been as strong as circuit.

He wasn't, he was very anonymous last year.

Wasn't he actually?

And Sergio Perez was actually quicker than him last year.

He wasn't very, wasn't, wasn't great around here,

but then also he wasn't great at Monza last year.

So I'm kind of like, well, maybe then that means

that I don't know, just crazy logic.

Why not?

We'll go for Max and also just going McLaren one

every week is boring, isn't it?

So it is.

So that's why we're mixing it up ever so slightly.

Let's go to a one crazy prediction.

My crazy prediction is probably a bit too crazy

and stupid, but I'm going for no red flags caused

by a crash all weekend.

So all the practices.

No, all the practices.

Interesting to have caused by a crash.

So a little, little escape road dilemma.

Oh, I was thinking more like I was more covering myself

for when like, you know, like a piece of advertising

boarding falls off or a truck crashes into a bridge again.

What if someone hits into that?

What if someone hits into the wall, but it's not the car.

Well, then we'll then we'll bring it into all weekend.

Like that's come on.

That's not because they do that for all sorts of like

timing switches and things.

I crash.

We know what a crash is.

It's fine.

Okay.

All right.

I look forward to arguing this on the main race podcast.

My one crazy prediction.

Starlight qualifies Alonso.

Here we go again.

I haven't done it this year.

I did it almost every single week.

Oh, you did.

Yeah, you did.

I remember that was the mean, but then you brought it back

and it made me think.

I quite like that crazy prediction.

I quite like doing that even though he hasn't done it

at all, but maybe back.

Who's the one and I would actually enjoy it if it was

because then it was the time that you didn't pick it.

And then I can say guys podium here, didn't he?

Of course in the Williams.

Tell you he's coming.

He's coming.

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Let's go to our Patreon prediction

where if you are part of the P1 Patreon

you can submit a prediction on our Discord

and then we will choose one to be part of our set of predictions.

My one comes in from Emma double exclamation mark.

Safety car at least two times.

Okay.

Carnage.

Carnage breeds carnage.

You get one safety car, you get another safety car.

It's Baku.

Give us a headwind into term one.

We are cooking.

Yeah, and that's quite a good one actually, isn't it?

Cause Baku is the thing that once you get one safety car

normally it breeds more.

So yes, that's the phrase that is.

I have gone for Pickle Knicks

which is papaya rules play a part in the weekend.

So watch like a free practice one team radio of

Landers on a push lap behind you, Oscar.

Can you just let through and give a look at this?

Look at this.

I've got the receipts.

No, I just I just feel like something will come up

during race strategy again or there'll be something.

You've got some feelings for this weekend.

I have got some feelings.

You really do my goodness.

One week away from F1 and I'm like, it's going to be chaos.

Max is winning papaya rules.

Ollie Berman finishing second.

No.

If that happens, by the way, another papaya rules incident.

You get ready for a riled up Tommy on the main race podcast again

and we all love to see that.

Okay, let's head to a family top three where I am really hoping

that I know that I'm fielding Ellie again,

but I literally live with her and I forgot to ask anyone else.

My dad's definitely going to be asleep and my mom.

I need I need points and my mom's going to drop like flipping Logan

Sergeant in there somehow.

So right, let's see.

Well, she's literally downstairs.

So fingers crossed.

Hello.

Hello, my darling.

Welcome to who wants to be a P1 millionaire?

Great.

What can I win?

Absolutely nothing.

My love.

So right.

Well, to be fair, we have to win first.

We're eight seven.

I didn't even say the scores.

It's eight seven to the boring Bellingham's.

It's very close now and I'm fielding you back in.

Okay.

Mainly because I know my dad's probably asleep.

So who have you gone for P3?

Talk to me.

Oh, it's so tricky because I'm tossing up between two.

But also, before you say that, like you've scored a point in every

single time I fielded you.

So that is huge.

Get me three now.

Come on.

I'm going to go with my original thought, which was like that.

Okay.

So you've gone for the Tommy went for P3.

Charlotte Clare as well.

So I'm now conflicted.

This is like the chip.

This is the constructors championship.

We don't care about foundry top three if that comes in P2.

I'm going to put max.

Okay.

All right.

None of us have gone for a McLaren one two in back it.

We've seen one race in Monza and we've gone McLaren.

Don't know exactly P1.

But P1 I have gone for Oscar fiesta.

Oh, you back.

Yeah.

Same as me.

I like to say that.

Okay.

Perfect.

Thank you so much for being a part of this team and always scoring points.

See you downstairs shortly.

I love you.

Bye.

I love you.

Bye.

I, this is a bad thing to say.

I don't, I don't mean no ill will and Oscar piazza.

But I take it back.

What I said about, I don't want it to happen a big flop.

Cause now you and Ellie have gone for it.

I'm going to lose.

I'm like, please no.

For a DNF.

Okay.

Yeah.

Okay.

Who are you fielding?

I am going to give my mother a call.

Oh, your mom's great content.

Let's see.

Let's see where she put Charlotte Clare this week.

She loves a Charlotte Clare.

I know.

And a rogue give me aunt and Ellie as well.

Oh yeah.

And I've been for good surprise.

Give me aunt and Ellie.

Let's see.

We'll find out.

Hello.

Hi ma'am.

It didn't even ring.

How's it going?

How are you?

How are you doing?

I'm good.

How's the cross stitch going?

Oh, they're still doing lots of orange.

Oh, I know.

So hopefully a different winner for you then.

Let's get P3.

Max won last time.

Okay.

P3.

Louis.

Okay.

Remember it's member.

They're catching up.

Yeah.

Right.

P2.

Landau.

Okay.

A P1.

Oscar.

Okay.

We've locked in on one take.

Good.

Boring, Bellingham's back.

Thank you.

I appreciate it, ma'am.

Thank you.

Can you please ask her about where Charlotte Clare is?

Matt is saying where Charlotte Clare.

I know.

I'm just thinking.

In the castle section.

If I say Louis, it will be Charles, won't it?

Hopefully.

Well, Matt, spoiler alert.

Matt's gone for a big flop.

Charlotte Clare.

Oh, has he?

Yeah.

So there we go.

Right.

Thanks, ma'am.

Fingers crossed.

We need to get back dominating again.

Hello, dad.

Bye-bye.

Don't hang up.

Just as it's getting good.

The dad's just come on the phone as well.

About to call you some random name once again.

He did.

He said hi, Belug in the background.

Oh, Belug.

We've had Belug before, though.

He needs to come up with a new one.

Yeah, he does.

A new one each week.

There we go.

There you go.

There's always, I feel like, yeah.

I know I laughed at that.

The only reason I laughed at that is because Hampton

literally hasn't had a podium this year.

And I genuinely thought that your mum was going to go off,

you know, on some crazy sort of,

I was going to say Charlotte Clare P2.

That's exactly what I put in my predictions.

I'm selling out my own parents now,

but I feel like they've got a tactic

of like going for a boring McLaren one-two,

but then they throw a random rogue third-in.

Because a two-pointer is very nice.

Two-pointer's great.

They sort of go against the boring

Bellingham's tagline.

It's also risky.

Yeah, it's difficult because,

I mean, the way this season's gone with predictions,

I know we always banter that it's kind of,

oh, we've not scored many points,

but you get the McLarens in the wrong order

and people keep saying,

oh, you should get a point for when,

the amount of times we've got the podium,

just in the wrong order.

Yeah, during our P1 Live show,

the amount of people that have been like,

we even discussed it as a controversial opinion,

I think, at one point.

It was like, oh, we should,

you should get points for,

or your family should get points

for just getting it anywhere in the top three.

No, no, no.

This is where the drama's at.

So yeah.

It's all or nothing.

Exactly.

It is all or nothing.

And that is it.

We are locked in, dialed in,

ready for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend.

We'll be live on YouTube and Twitch reminder as well.

Australian Delusion Tour tickets are available

and selling fast.

We've added some dates if you want to come

and see us in May next year.

But you guys have been incredibly supportive.

There's also some other tickets available

in the US, in Canada,

as well as, I think, Ireland have a few

and I know Manchester,

I mean, Ireland maybe is down, actually.

I think Ireland might be down.

But Manchester,

there are a few tickets available still.

So, Tommy, what are your final thoughts?

Final thoughts.

I'll get your tickets and also,

based on my crazy prediction,

can't wait for someone to go straight out of the pit lane

and hit the wall at, like, turn three on their out lap.

Just a minor little sort of, like,

little front edge of a front wing.

Yeah, yeah.

Red flag out.

I'm then messaging you saying,

ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

And you are in the mud.

Perfect.

Can't wait for you to be in the mud

with an Oscar-Piastry Grand Shalem.

And we will see you very soon, as I say,

live on Twitch and YouTube.

We'll see you then.

And, yeah, can't wait for it.

Take care.

Lots of love.

Bye.

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Dodge Charger

About this episode

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