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Our 2025 Italian GP predictions
Our 2025 Italian GP predictions
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About this episode
Matt and Tommy dive into their predictions for the 2025 Italian Grand Prix at Monza, debating potential surprises like Liam Lawson and Carlos Sainz, and flops including Lance Stroll and Mercedes. They discuss pole position contenders, with McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri favored, and make bold calls on podium finishes. The episode features lighthearted banter, family prediction segments, and a few crazy predictions such as a top team driver crashing out early and Williams scoring double points. The hosts also touch on the unpredictability of Monza and the excitement of strategy and racing dynamics.
Topics:
italian grand prix predictions
monza circuit
driver surprises
driver flops
pole position bets
podium forecasts
mclaren performance
family prediction segment
crazy predictions
formula 1 strategy
We're straight into another race weekend, as the circus heads to Monza - a track Ferrari are usually pretty competitive at. You know what that means: it's delusion time!
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Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy.
Look at us.
We are back once again.
And this time it's a special one.
It's Monza.
It's the Italian Grand Prix.
And I am so ready for this one, Tommy.
I can't tell you.
I feel like this could be very special indeed.
You've got a new house just sorted for the Italian Grand Prix.
That's not much Monza means to you.
Absolutely.
I've not been trying to get my internet sorted for the last two weeks
and been in different places, but we are here.
And I feel like, yeah, it must make sense, right?
Why has it all come together right now ahead of Monza?
What's also hilarious is I saw a clip from the F1
fan zone from the Dutch Grand Prix.
And it was Charlotte Clair talking about how he's moving house at the moment.
And I was like, how have we not made that joke yet that he's moving in with you?
He's going to move on next to a neighbour.
Where's he moving to?
Maybe on the sofa behind you.
Who knows.
Oh, stop it.
You know that's reserved for you.
Right, let's get into the predictions.
It's currently 4140 to Tommy.
Very close indeed.
You just edged ahead from the Dutch Grand Prix.
And it's now my time to bounce back.
Let's see what happens.
It's my time to go first as well.
How exciting is that?
So my good surprise for the Italian Grand Prix is...
Liam Lawson.
Liam Lawson.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I read your criticism.
Does that mean to do a driver race?
No, I think we did unfairly grade him for what he was actually doing in that race.
So I apologise to all the Liam Lawson fans that clearly set everything on fire in the driver ratings episode.
But genuinely, though, I think that this is a good shout as well.
Had jars off the back of a podium.
Racing balls are doing very well.
Lawson, of course, could have had a really good opportunity and a good result in Zambor.
Didn't.
So I'm seeing all these loopholes and I'm like, look, Liam Lawson,
little top six or something, we're cooking.
So there you go.
Nice.
Please don't finish seventh.
Don't hold me for that.
I have gone for good surprise.
Carlos Sainz.
Of course, the guy who tangled with Liam Lawson in the last race.
And yeah, I think, look, surely Carlos is due a good race.
He's had...
That's so true, actually.
Yeah, he's been on a poor run of form.
We know that Williams can be good in the past around Monza,
even though they kind of say, look, we're not just a Monza specialist now,
but Carlos has been on such a bad run of form that surely,
surely it's got to turn around at some point.
And you kind of saw a little bit of it in the Dutch Grand Prix
with him out qualifying Alex Alban and looking quite good until the incident with Lawson.
So yeah, I'm going for Carlos to have a good result.
He has absolutely owed a good result.
So that is a very good shout.
I think, to be honest, at any points, scoring for Carlos this year
is deemed pretty surprising with how bad luck he's had
and things he's been involved in.
Let's go to a big flop!
I have gone for Lance Stroll.
You're doing amazing.
Yeah, he's had an amazing result in...
He's crashed twice in the last race.
Ridiculous.
True, yeah, exactly.
Has to crash three times.
And he took over, mate.
He's just come in.
I'm still not over that.
That's not my wrong fit.
There's no talk about driver ratings again, bro.
And look, Lance...
This is more the fact that I just don't think Aston Martin
may be going to be as strong around here.
I went for Aston Martin in the last race.
Of course, I said that I didn't know if Aston would be good.
And sure enough, they were amazing.
So looking forward to a Lance Stroll podium,
like we had in 2020, of course.
Yes, a race that he absolutely could have won.
And the podium was dead, didn't he?
Yeah, I feel like, yeah, my memory serves me right.
He should have won that race.
He was on the front row of the grid
in the really quick racing point
and finished third instead.
But he got a podium.
He did.
And apparently another one is on the way
to stop Tommy getting any points.
And I'll take it to be honest with you.
My big flop is Mercedes.
I've gone for a team.
Tommy, I've gone for two points.
Oh, OK.
I've done it.
Antonelli on the podium confirmed.
But I have.
Please.
I've just gone for it, you know.
I don't know why.
I think that the reason I've gone for it is that
Monza can breed a little bit of unexpected results.
You know what I'm saying?
And you've got racing balls on a great
run of form at the moment.
You've got Williams that I think
are knocking on the door of potentially
getting a podium at some point.
And that could just mean that Mercedes
don't have a great weekend.
So am I completely deluded?
Or do you think Mercedes are going to be good this weekend?
I don't think they'll be good.
I do think that we're looking at,
yeah, obviously, like McLaren are going to be strong.
Ferrari in theory should do strong at Monza,
but who knows, you know,
we've said a lot about Ferrari this year.
But Mercedes, I do hope you're wrong
because I can't deal with another Kimmy Antonelli bad weekend.
Yeah, I don't want to see it.
They're going to be wrong, Tommy.
But I want to see two points in my bank account more.
So that's why I've dropped it in there.
So I'm really sorry, Kimmy fans.
I want to see him do well, of course,
after last year and everything that went on.
Fingers crossed for him,
but also fingers crossed for my two points.
Cheers. Thank you very much.
Right, let's head to pole position.
My pole position for the Italian Grand Prix in Monza.
Oscar Piastri.
Oscar should have won last year.
Charles Leclerc did something utterly special,
as we all know.
I won't get into it,
but I think when the name would be mentioned.
Yeah, that's the first time you thought it would be within three.
To be fair, I did say in the intro if you watch it on YouTube.
So look, Oscar should have won,
but I feel like a McLaren slight blunder with the strategy
allowed the opportunity for Charles Leclerc to win.
Charles did obviously an amazing job
to make those tyres work and last,
but Oscar was rapid and was well on his way
to winning that race until it all came crashing down for him.
So I think he's going to continue that run of form.
Why wouldn't he?
He's been great this season,
and he's a championship leader.
Pole position I've gone for.
Oh, is he changing?
No, I'm going to go for Lando Norris.
I'm going to go for Lando Norris.
What were you going to do?
I was nearly going to go for Charles Leclerc, you know.
Cheat.
I nearly was thinking about it,
but I just don't see it.
I just don't see Friar being as good as McLaren.
I know it's a very unique circuit,
and in theory, you know,
if there's going to be a circuit that McLaren
maybe aren't as good as the others,
a very different one like Monza,
but I still see him being very quick.
So no, we'll go for Lando.
I think he will bounce back after the heartbreak of his DNF,
of course.
And yeah, whether a pole position
will change things for him,
but it'd be a big confidence boost, of course,
after what happened at the Dutch Grand Prix
if he bags that pole position.
Certainly will.
Right, let's head to P3.
Now, this is, I know what you're thinking already,
as I say this.
So P3, I'm going for Lewis Hamilton.
I know he's got a penalty,
with the five-place penalty,
with how bad his form has been.
And I just, this is just pure delusion
and maybe just hoping.
Have we swapped roles?
What's going on?
I know, I know.
Part of me just thinks like,
all this kind of hardship and stuff,
and how he's not got a podium,
and Holkenberg's got a podium,
and Hodge has got a podium,
Lewis Hamilton still doesn't have a podium for Ferrari.
Just imagine, imagine if it was at Monza.
You don't have to tell me to imagine that twice, Tommy.
Sign me up.
It would be so good.
So I know it's going to be a tough ask,
the fact that he's got that penalty.
But he is very good around Monza as well.
Like it's a circuit that he has been really strong at.
So yeah, I'm going to go for Lewis Hamilton.
Why not?
Oh, okay.
I thought you were going to go
the other side of the garage.
My P3 is Charlotte Clair.
Yeah, yeah, we're not winning anything, guys.
I can't, I can't,
I cannot stretch far enough into my delusion
to believe that Ferrari are going to win this year.
I genuinely think we're going to have,
and I know that in my bold prediction
for the rest of the season.
Two races, two race wins and you've failed in the first race.
From what I saw inside of it,
I know it's a very different track.
I know it and I'll probably come back for Baku.
But I just...
You watched Charlotte Clair sat on a hill
for half the race and went.
Yeah, that was, that was depressing to watch.
Look, third place will still be good.
Still be a very good result to be on the podium in Monza.
I just, the McLarens were,
have just been so good this year,
better than they were last year.
I can't see Charlotte in any higher than third,
so that's what I'm locking in, sadly.
Really makes me very upset.
Second position, I am locking in.
Hold on, so have you gone for pole?
Maybe you've gone for pole and win.
Second place, I'm going for Landon Norris.
Landon Norris is my P2.
I think it'll be close between the McLarens again.
I just, I cannot get out of my head last year
and how Oscar was incredibly good around Monza,
and he has taken a step up since last year.
And that trajectory, if it continues that way,
then Oscar should have some really good speed this weekend.
Obviously, spoiler alert,
might have gone for Lewis Hamilton P1.
But I've gone for Landon Norris P2.
It'll still be quick, but it'll be close.
You could go for one or the other.
It really is that easy to score zero or two points.
Indeed, yeah, I've gone for Oscar Pastery P2.
Yeah, it wasn't Lando.
Don't need to change it.
I had gone for Oscar.
Do you see McLaren being very strong again?
I think it would be very close between them.
Of course, the point swing was massive in Zandvoort,
but of course, it was such close margins between them
in qualifying.
Could have easily gone the other way.
And I feel like it's going to be the same again.
Like it's going to be a case of down to qualifying
and who gets the better start potentially.
So, yeah.
What do you mean, Tommy?
There's loads of straights.
There's loads of straights.
I know, I know.
They run the skinniest wings ever in DRF.
What's the weather doing?
I've never looked at the weather.
I've checked the weather.
It's sunny, mate, yeah.
I mean, there is a little bit of potential rain on Friday.
I'm not getting baited by that again.
Yeah, Saturday and Sunday are looking clear at the moment.
Okay.
So, watch it rain.
Who knows?
Maybe.
What about P1, Tommy?
P1, no surprise, is Lando Norris.
I think he's going to bounce back
with a pole position and a race victory.
Championship back on.
I just think championship back on.
I don't think the championship was ever off.
I said it in our race review that you'd be silly to write off
a championship with nine rounds to go.
Yes, it's going to be difficult,
but stranger things have happened in Formula One.
It's not to say it will happen
and not to say it's going to be easy if he does overturn it.
But it's not impossible.
He's in a very good car.
There's lots of races to go still.
And you never know if Oscar
might have some trouble himself.
We've seen crazy things happen in Formula One.
So, I think Lando is going to take the victory.
McLaren, if anything, I'm not spoiler alert,
but I won't go for McLaren every single week
because I'd make predictions very boring as a 1-2.
But I do think now they are just going to get stronger
and stronger while everyone else is...
This is our predictions.
We're predicting.
We are predicting.
But sometimes we go for our delusional predictions.
Indeed.
Instead of real ones.
But this has gone, this kind of season
that when I predicted McLaren to win the Construct,
as I said, that everyone else will just give up.
And that is exactly what I think is going to happen.
Now the focus will switch
and McLaren are going to be the team
that will just be very comfortable in my opinion.
So, yeah, Lando P1.
Okey-dokey.
I'm thinking about whether I go down some real crazy route
right now after you saying that.
No, we're going to go for P1, Oscar Piatri.
I was going to do some crazy stuff.
You'd sort of started to rejuvenate
and kind of fill back up my Ferrari bar of belief.
But I couldn't put Lewis-Hampson P1.
Even though that would be unbelievable, wouldn't it?
But it's going to have to be Oscar Piatri.
I don't know if it is.
But I think it will be for the reasons that I've already said.
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Let's head to our one crazy prediction.
Now, I've kept this one interesting,
just purely because I've not filled it in,
and therefore I'm going to make it up on the fly.
Oh, yes.
So.
Pro-1-2.
My one crazy prediction is
one of the top four teams out in Q1, thoughts.
One of the top four drivers out in Q1, thoughts.
Four teams or four drivers.
Sorry. So, out of the four teams,
one of those drivers out of the top four teams,
it's out in Q1.
Is that crazy when Yuki Sonoda has had quite a few execs?
Okay, all right. Excluding Yuki Sonoda.
And...
One of them top seven.
No, no, no. Antonelli, you're back to your go.
Hamilton out in Q1 is still crazy.
It happened two races ago.
No.
And...
Just because it happened once out of a whole season
does not... That literally makes it crazy.
Okay, yeah. Fine, fine.
Thank you. So, excluding Sonoda.
Top seven in the championship.
Tough times, yes. Is it top seven?
I don't even know.
Yeah, I think it will be, won't it?
Okay, out in Q1.
Okay, cool. That's mine.
What's yours, Tommy?
My one crazy prediction is Williams, double points.
And I looked into this.
Is that crazy?
Yeah, yeah. Right, exactly.
Is that crazy?
And I actually did some research on this
because I knew that...
That you knew what else for a race.
Yeah, yeah, of course.
And I was surprised by myself with what I found.
Williams haven't got a double points finish in absolutely ages.
I think it was all the way back in Monaco.
And now here everyone going,
but they're always so good at Monza.
They definitely got one at Monza.
They have not had a double points finish since 2018,
which I was very surprised about.
I was convinced they were like ninth and tenth every single...
Yeah.
Italian Grand Prix for the last like five years,
but apparently not.
So, there we go.
Well, that is crazy.
And I love how you kind of,
when you're doing your crazy prediction,
you've thought about what the repercussions
will be of said prediction.
Yeah, of course.
You shut it down beautifully.
So, well done, Tommy.
I absolutely love that.
Let's head to our Patreon prediction
where if you join the P1 Patreon,
you can submit a prediction on our Discord
and we select one of them to potentially score us a point.
Mine is from Patrick.
Strollette qualifies along, though.
So, I've basically gone against my own big flop
because I know Lance Stroll will become the goat
because I've predicted him big flop.
And so, I'm basically playing 4D chess here.
You are.
We're all talking about the driver's championship here.
It's getting competitive now, yeah.
Everybody will, you know,
how will Norris versus Piastri,
how will they work against each other?
What about me and Tommy?
Well, we are figuring it out.
And that's a big bold play from you, Tommy.
My Patreon prediction is from JP Falcon XR6
Colopinto in the points.
There we go.
Lock it in.
That's the actual prediction, nice one.
Monza is a place...
Colopinto, 11th place in the Dutch Grand Prix.
And Monza is a good place for...
We've had random stand-ins, haven't we,
do very well indeed.
And I'm here for...
Colopinto himself, of course.
Yeah, of course, yeah.
So, why not?
I believe in it.
Tommy, do you believe in it?
I'd love to see it.
Alpine and...
I nearly went for actually like an Alpine
and Renault Resurgence, but...
Because weirdly Renault always used to be
just amazing around Monza back in the kind of...
Back in the day.
But sadly not.
Sadly not, yeah.
I would actually hope that you get that prediction
because I'd like to see it in the points personally.
Yeah, I would as well.
Right, we now head to our family top three.
It's currently 8-6 to the Warren Bellingham's,
but they have been caught up to within a race win.
A race win I'm considering a full first,
second, third streak.
And that, of course, is three points.
Tommy, you look like you're getting ready,
so why don't you go first?
Okay, why not?
I'll give my dad a call.
Oh, what's he going to call you this week?
What name will he call me this week?
Hello, SpongeBob.
Does he know?
Definitely message rate.
Hello.
Hi, Dad, how are you?
I'm all right, thank you, Freddie.
Good stuff.
Yeah.
I need your top three for the Italian Grand Prix, please.
Starting with Pifeu.
Okay.
Um, well, just before,
can I just congratulate you on your recent Dutch draw?
Obviously very proud of you both, so...
Oh, thank you, Dad.
I just wanted to get that in.
20 quids in the bank.
And for the top three,
so Matt doesn't accuse me of being boring,
and I'm going to go a bit off track,
like Kerr Ferrari.
I don't have that.
And I'm going to go Albon third
and go with my heart rather than my head.
Okay.
Nice.
And then...
Then looking at McLaren 1-2.
Oh, okay.
No.
Don't try it.
Yeah.
If I'm going for the points, like Matt does,
but I just want to mix it up,
so I will go Max second
and no offence to Lando,
but Piastri to win.
So I'll go for the...
Okay.
...Pretend to ball.
Like McLaren win.
That is a tasty podium.
Okay.
Thanks, Dad.
Okay.
All right.
Thank you.
It's all the best boys.
Bye.
Bless him.
One point.
That's a half point deduction,
by the way, from you,
to try and steer his predictions in a different way.
We will speak to the comments on that one.
Absolutely crazy behavior from you.
Right.
Let's see if I...
I know for a fact...
I know for a fact that Ellie's going to just cook for me
and just go for the absolute strongest lineup.
So let's see.
Here we go.
Two points behind as well.
I love how I'm calling her.
She's literally in the house.
I've been forwarded to voicemail.
Also, you're trying to reach as much available.
What?
Forwarded to voicemail.
The person you're trying...
Try WhatsApp.
Are you getting WhatsApp call?
Is it because you're ringing her on a phone
and there's no signal?
Where if you call on WhatsApp,
it would be through Wi-Fi, wouldn't it?
Hello?
Hi there.
I tried to call you on your normal sort of phone
and that did not work.
It went straight to voicemail.
But you are finally here.
It's because I had it on Do Not Disturb.
Oh, charming.
I mean, you're in the same house as me,
so I'll let you off.
Oh, that's a disqualification from predictions.
Tommy's apparently said you're disqualified
even though he tried to steer his dad
in a different way for his predictions.
It was crazy.
Right, Monza, we are...
We're too behind, Elle.
So please help me.
Third position.
And I'm going to put Oscar in third.
All right, all right.
I said you were going to go for the strongest lineup.
Yes.
Oscar, that's crazy for me.
Yes, Ellie.
Okay, second position to be fair.
Tommy's dad literally put Albon in third.
So we've still got a better chance of that coming in.
Second.
I'm paying Charles in second.
All right.
Jesus Christ, you're more delusional than I am
in this podcast.
And first position.
Lando.
Okay, a Lando Charles Oscar podium.
Interesting.
Not the strongest lineup I was hoping for,
but strong enough.
So stronger than Tommy's dad.
That's for sure.
Thank you.
I'll speak to you later.
I love you.
Bye.
Bye.
I hope the I love you guy got cut off in the disturbance.
That's crazy.
Okay.
Wow.
Oscar P3, Charles second.
Charles second.
I feel like that's going to ruin everything
and that's going to be a zero point.
I, yeah, yeah.
I was, I was, I nearly went for Charles second to be fair.
So did you?
Okay.
All right.
I might regret it.
Maybe the oracle of all knowledge,
Tom Bellingham is onto something.
But yeah, I cut great from your dad.
Really, really appreciate that.
It was amazing.
Has she just texted me to apologize?
Oh no, she texted me and says,
I have rationale.
She's just, she's just back in her prediction.
Matt, shut the hell up.
I know what I'm saying.
Has my dad messaged me to say,
sorry, no, he hasn't.
I'm surprised I would have just messaged me
being like, who's behind in the championship?
Oh wait, it's you.
Don't, don't say anything.
So, because obviously Tommy is winning.
So all right.
Well, there you go.
That is the predictions locked in.
Always fun doing some family top three.
Big thanks to Ellen and Tommy's dad
for getting involved this week.
Tommy, what are your final thoughts?
I'm praying for a good Italian Grand Prix.
Last year was really, really good, wasn't it?
It was beautiful.
So more crazy strategy, please.
Give us that again, Pirelli.
I don't know what tyres they've bought,
but hopefully they last three laps.
Mate, it doesn't matter what they bring.
They will all last 50 laps.
Yeah, true.
It doesn't matter if it's literally made of Play-Doh.
But there you go.
Cool. All right.
Looking forward to it.
We'll be live on Twitch and YouTube,
if you're wondering.
We'll have it fixed, locked in, everything.
The stream is going to work like a dream this weekend,
I promise you.
All right.
So come and join us there,
and we will see you very soon.
Friday practice wrap up.
We'll be next.
See you soon.
Until then, bye.
Bye.
Oh, and that Ferrari is beautiful, by the way.
Fair play Ferrari.
That livery is beautiful.
It's tasty.
It's good.
It's a good one.
It's a good one.
It's tasty.
Whether I get some of podium or not,
we'll find out.
Hopefully it doesn't weigh the car down more.
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and part of the ACAST Created Network.
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