Our 2025 Mexico City GP predictions

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Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the P1 Podcast

with Matt and Tommy Predictions.

We are here once again to share our delusion with you all.

P1 Live Delusion Tour tickets are available,

but very, very nearly not,

because we are literally going to the North America

in less than a few days.

It's coming.

Okay, flight's a book.

We can't wait to see you.

Tommy, I'm seeing you right now on my screen.

Predictions, five races to go,

not a sprint weekend this time,

so you can't gain a massive 33 points this time.

It's only going to be 25 on offer.

How are we feeling?

Nervous, very, very nervous.

As you mentioned in the last race review,

I could not even barely watch the race.

I was so nervous.

So imagine what it's like as it gets more and more extreme.

So we aren't going to be doing a watch along.

It'll just be me, clearly.

Even though Tommy will be there sat there,

he won't actually be watching along,

because he'll be like, oh, I'm so nervous.

Max is winning my 42nd time.

Just breathing into a paper bag.

Yeah, exactly.

So look, just get used to this.

This is the Tom Bellingham of Northern

for the next five races and two sprints.

Can't wait for it.

Tommy, I think you kind of need to explain

what you're wearing.

That would be a good start.

You can't just sit there and just,

I know you've got used to it now,

but I don't think anyone else has got used to the,

but daddy, I love him, Max Verstappen T-shirt.

Yeah, so I saw this online and I jokingly,

I think it's after Singapore.

So 63 point gap, I sent it to you.

I've got the screenshot, I'll share it and said,

if it gets to 40 points, I will buy this T-shirt

and you were like, oh my God, yes, please.

And literally the very next race,

it goes to 40 points exactly,

like if that's not meant to be.

Did you template those?

I'm pretty sure you said under 40.

Oh, did I?

Okay.

Maybe it's,

maybe I'm cursing it.

Oh dear, oh dear.

It is currently 47 apiece.

We are, and I love, by the way,

we have a sheet that has like a rough structure

of what we're going to talk about.

You've kept it as it's currently 47, 47 to Tommy.

So how?

Well, yeah, count back.

On count back, are you winning?

So what is the count back?

If we end up drawing at the end of the year.

Count all the points.

What is, what is count back?

I saw that, I got them first, I don't know.

No, I didn't actually, did I?

No, that doesn't even work.

I don't know how we do it.

Maybe like, maybe the, the count back is,

I have to also wear an embarrassing

Charlotte Claire T-shirt,

and then the winner of predictions

is whoever travels the farthest in it in public.

Can you imagine if we get to this point, by the way,

and it's, say it's Abu Dhabi and we're level on points,

like the championship will be, of course,

with all three of them.

We go into that final race,

and maybe we need to do like

the bonus prediction of like,

guess the lap time or something

that's like the tiebreaker of the prediction.

Guess the lap, not a chance.

If anyone's been to a P1 live show,

there is zero chance that I am doing guess the lap time.

But something, but something like that, anyway.

1997, Hereth qualifying session,

that you got almost to the decimal place.

Yeah, yeah, jog on, jog on.

So we'll figure that one out,

but there is a genuine possibility

and I can't quite believe it.

Let's head to a good surprise.

Is it me to go first, Tommy?

It is, yeah.

Okay, all right.

My good surprise for this weekend,

I'm flying straight through this loophole.

Hopefully it is a loophole.

Oscar Piatru.

Oh, for God's sake.

Get on that podium, my friend,

and then that is a good surprise.

And Tommy can, I knew, I knew

that you would have Oscar Piatru there

because you know exactly what I do

in the fact that he has not had a podium

in a little while.

And if he ends up P3,

that is a good surprise for him.

Even if he loses points in the championship,

back on the podium,

I'll be taking one of those.

Thank you very much.

Okay, so yeah, I was gonna go for Oscar Piatru

because yeah, it just seems like an easy dub

because surely he's got to turn his form around.

But even if, you know, he's beaten by the other two

and gets on the podium,

it's still arguably a good surprise

because he's not been on the podium for a while.

So I am looking through the grid right now.

And I am gonna go for George Russell.

Why not?

I swear he is literally your backup for everything.

It doesn't matter what it is,

George Russell is your backup.

I nearly went, no.

Do you think about him when you sleep?

Maybe, apparently.

I'm gonna go for George Russell.

Yeah, I was just looking through the order

and I was just thinking who could surprise him.

I was nearly gonna go for one of the Ferrari drivers,

but they had a pretty good race

and George was down in six.

So let's go for.

Only as good as your last race,

that's what we're going for.

Forget Singapore when he literally won.

Yeah, he's won the race, that's great.

No, I'm gonna go for it.

I'll go for George.

Okay, Ducky, George Russell locked in.

Let's head to a big flop.

Big flop I have gone for.

Yuki Sonoda.

And I think this is more of the fact

that obviously, I think he was flattered

by the actual result of the standing.

And I think that the kind of fortune

of the turn one chaos and stuff in the sprint

also flattered him quite somewhat,

whether I'm not disregarding the result completely,

but I think his result was better

than his actual performance.

So I don't think he's necessarily turned around

to season or anything.

And yeah, I'm going for Yuki.

Obviously hope I'm wrong,

hope he continues that form.

Cause clearly the red bull second in the constructors,

that's what I'm really rooting for here

in this whole championship scenario.

Yeah, I mean, my sort of thoughts here is,

wow, it's going to have to be

something quite drastically bad.

53 seconds off.

Last time I checked the predictions

as much as we talk in jest about the last race,

they did this, so therefore,

it's usually a little bit more than that.

But actually, if you look at his points scoring.

So does the guy go for Oscar Piestri

and then he gets a podium.

Mate, he's not at a podium in the last three, four.

So that's poor and a form in my opinion.

Yuki Sonoda.

If you do complete the sprint as well.

So Yuki Sonoda, in fact,

I'm looking at it right now.

And to be fair, you can cash this in

if he has a terrible race, of course.

And it's not working in your favor if we like patterns.

Cause Hungary, no points.

Netherlands, points.

Italy, no points.

Azerbaijan, points.

Singapore, no points.

USA, points.

And now we head to Mexico.

So if he continues his streak,

then you've, well, you might get it, right?

But it depends.

If he finishes 11th, there's no chance

there's a big flop, so whatever.

Right, okay.

So Yuki Sonoda is locked in for your big flop.

For mine, Oli Bearman.

He's got points in the last one.

So if he doesn't in this one, then that's crazy.

That is crazy.

I nearly went for Oli Bearman as well.

Did you?

I was really considering it.

We put about the same predictions in the first two.

I've gone for Oli Bearman.

As we know with the big flop,

I just have a feeling.

And to be fair, actually, if this comes in,

I want to wholeheartedly apologize to Oli Bearman

and his entire family because that might well mean

he's involved in some kind of dodgy incident

that gets him a penalty and therefore he's disqualified

for the next, not disqualified, banned for the next race.

That would be a true big flop coming in

if Bearman genuinely can't race in the next one

because of me.

So sorry, Oli in advance, but that is what I'm going for.

I'll take the point all the same.

Let's head to pole position.

My pole position.

Daddy, I love him.

It's Max Verstappen.

If you're listening on audio,

Tommy's wearing a butt, Daddy, I love him.

Or if in YouTube, they have edited it

in a way that we haven't explained.

But in Venice, I do love him currently

because I am a newly recruited Max Verstappen fan

to hopefully see something crazy happen

at the end of this championship.

Max Verstappen's getting pole position.

The form he is currently in and Mexico,

barring last year, of course,

is a little bit of an outlier

when it comes to his performances in Mexico.

He's won around here five times.

So I'm back in Max.

I didn't go for Max Verstappen, so I don't need to change it.

I have gone for Lando Norris.

I think it's going to be an incredibly

close qualifying session,

I think between the top three contenders.

I'm unsure whether Max will do it again.

He's obviously in amazing form.

It is Mexico, he's really good at,

but we do know that it's the nature of that circuit.

We had a surprise last time out

with the Ferrari pole position, of course.

But yeah, I'm going for Lando Norris,

he's of course had some good form recently,

was very close to getting pole position, of course,

in, sorry, the sprint pole position

is incredibly close.

So yeah, I'll go for Lando.

Ooh, interesting stuff.

Who is going to finish in third place for the main race?

I am going to go for

Oscar Piestri in P3,

and I think Matt's probably about to change his,

because he obviously had the same idea as me,

for good surprise.

I almost thought about going for a Piestri win

and thinking that he has to turn his form around,

maybe it's not as bad as it's looked in the last race.

But as we mentioned, looking through things,

it's maybe not one of his favorable circuits,

although he has only been there twice

because he's a very new driver.

But yeah, I think Piestri will return to form with a podium,

but I think he's kind of got to rebuild his confidence

before he goes for the big dub.

Okie dokie, so yes, I did have Oscar Piestri

in third position,

so instead I'm going to substitute him out

and put Charles Leclerc in third position.

I've not said his name for a while

in the predictions episode.

I don't think I have anyway.

I probably do, I just don't notice it,

because it comes so naturally to me.

But Charles Leclerc's third,

and you reminded me so well,

of course Ferrari were very strong around here

and Carlos Sainz was a beast.

So Ferrari off the last Ferrari winner, of course.

Just wanted to remind you about that.

So can we edit that?

Editors, taking notes, thank you so much.

Didn't need reminding of that one.

I'm pleased enough to bleep.

Charles Leclerc P3,

I don't think that's actually

out of the realms of possibility

after a pretty good weekend.

In Austin, of course, very different circuit, Mexico.

Altitude is at our highest, aren't we,

of the entire calendar,

which will potentially change

a little bit of the pecking order.

Maybe we will see.

So third place, Charles Leclerc.

And I feel quite good about that actually now.

So screw you, Tommy, for making me change.

But also thank you.

Second position.

I am going to lock in.

Oh, God.

This is annoying, because I...

Who do I go for?

Because you get first dibs on first.

Second position I am going to go for Max Verstappen.

Oh, for God's sake.

Okay.

I've got for Max Verstappen

because I was going to put him first,

but I felt like you might have put him first,

and therefore I was scared.

No, it doesn't matter.

I've locked it in.

I can't, you know, this is the whole beauty of predictions.

I was trying to second guess

what you might have gone for first.

And if you'd gone for Max Verst,

and I'd gone for someone else second,

then I would have been scuppered.

So this is the beauty of predictions right now.

And I have gone for Max Verstappen's second position,

even if I thought he was going to win.

So it's a challenge failed successfully

because I had Max Verstappen in second.

So now I can't go for him in second.

Oh.

My pessimistic brain is like, I can't put him first.

I don't want to jinx him.

Oh, screw it.

Landon Norris P2.

Okay.

Yeah, I'm risking it all.

I've got the T-shirt and I've got two really, haven't I?

Landon Norris P2.

This could so drastically backfire on me

because I had Landon P2 and Max Verst.

And if I've just given you two points,

I am going to be absolutely devastated.

First position, Tommy.

First position.

I'd go for Max Verstappen then.

The form guide suggests he'll be strong here again.

Obviously I had him in P2.

I don't think Red Bull will be as strong as they have been.

Mexico is always that race where Max won

because he didn't have the kind of...

Well, obviously, through great talent, of course, as well,

but he didn't have that engine power of the Mercs

and he'd challenge them and would win there.

Whereas now, if anything,

those kind of quicker, high-powered tracks

are the ones that actually suit the Red Bull,

which is why I wasn't so keen on going for Max,

but you've forced my hand

and you've forced my hand into predicting Russell

for the win last time out.

And he wasn't six, so I'm not gonna...

I'm not gonna go for Russell again,

so I'm looking forward to him winning,

but then at least I wouldn't be surprised.

That'd be quite something, wouldn't it?

Okay, in first position, I am gonna lock in Lando Norris,

not the worst for the championship.

If my top three comes in that order,

Max still closes in and it's not the end of the world.

I think that I feel very happy with this as a choice.

Lando hasn't won since...

When's the last time he won?

It was pre-summer break.

Would it have been Hungary?

Yeah, Hungary, surely.

Yeah, Hungary.

So it's been a while for Lando since his last victory.

Which is mad that we're kind of constantly saying,

like, look, he's got really good form,

but it's good consistent form rather than,

yeah, it was Hungary's last win.

Yeah, so...

That all gets a long time ago.

Yeah, that is crazy to think, isn't it?

When we believe that McLaren are this team

that are the fastest and whatnot.

And yeah, he's not won in five races,

or six actually if you obviously include Hungary

where he won.

Second, seventh, third and second was the last four.

And it's weird, you say consistent,

you look at that as a form,

and you go, is that a championship winning form?

But then you look at Oscar Piatri,

he's had a much worse run of form,

and you have Max who was so far behind,

but winning everything,

George dropping in a win as well.

It's turning into a beautiful season, it really is.

But I'm happy with the Lando P1 here.

It was difficult between Lando and Max for me,

even though I am obviously on the Max hype.

And I'm glad that I've been able to make,

I don't know, I'll see if I'm glad

that I've made you change

because I may have just given you

two points in the championship

and I'll stop trying to second guess

what you're going to go for.

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Let's head to one crazy prediction.

So my one crazy prediction

is that track limits affects one

of the top three in the championship.

So that can be either,

and I'm gonna be very clear with what I'm saying,

so it could either affect an important Q3 lap

or it's a penalty in the race.

Okay, interesting.

Yeah, I wanted to mix it up.

Do a bit different,

because usually it's no yellow flags

or three people crash.

This one is a bit more specific

and keeps me in it until the last lap of the race.

Well, I'm glad that sometimes we disagree on things

because you said I want to mix it up.

So I've gone for all McLaren pit stops

are under three seconds.

Again?

There's no rules against it.

That's true.

I mean, I think, what, two seasons ago,

I went for Lance Straubach qualifies for an add-on

until he's nine times.

I've had six races in a row.

Okay.

And technically, he still hasn't.

We're still waiting on that to come in.

So if you'd gone for it 30 times in a row,

you'd have been one of the same times in a row,

which is quite a mad thing to think about.

Okay, you've gone for the same prediction

this last time.

Interesting.

Can't wait for a little...

Because surely they've got to do two pit stops in a row.

You sent me a Ferrari.

That's crazy.

Surely they'll win this year.

All right, let's head to our Patreon prediction.

If you're part of the P1 Patreon,

you can submit a wonderful prediction for us to choose,

as well as ad-free listening and lots of other benefits.

For as little as I was literally working out

about 30 PN episode if back with the amount

that we're churning out.

So if you want to come and support myself

and Tommy and P1 Venture,

we would love to have you on board.

Patreon.com forward slash map P1.

Tommy, that wasn't even supposed to be

a little sort of segue ad there,

but I thought it was worth mentioning.

Right, Tommy, what's your Patreon prediction?

It is actually strangely not too dissimilar

to what you were kind of thinking here.

I have gone for captain ofs

and they have put at least two championship contenders

have some sort of incident with each other on lap one.

So either a crash contact being pushed off.

But lap one, that's it.

Lap one, it has to be lap one,

because of course it's a very tight turn one, isn't it?

It's a tricky section.

You do normally see people bailing off onto the grass

and all sorts.

So yeah, all the title rivals gonna be

kind of going wheel to wheel into turn one.

That'd be quite exciting.

You can definitely create like a good bingo card

for Mexico as well of like altitude.

Third place is the best place to qualify.

Like just think about the amount of times

you might hear that in the broadcast

because I feel like it might well come up quite a lot.

The stadium section is amazing.

Oh my God, the stadium section.

Okay, my Patreon prediction is Alan Enderpay.

Someone ignores team orders.

Make that what you will.

Okay.

It will be...

Colopinto again.

Yeah, it will be Colopinto 19.

Come on Franco, get me another point.

Love it.

Right, we now head to family top three.

It's currently 10-9 to the Boring Bellingens.

And now that, you know, I'm still close.

We, I should say we, the Gallagher's are close.

And look, Tommy, I know that sometimes

you do like a fun one, right?

I think you had Frank do one at one point

or maybe it was Grace, it was Grace.

I've decided that I should also throw in an interesting one.

I think you should, because I was five one ahead

at one point.

Yeah, and to make it a little bit more fair,

I'm not fielding a dog,

but I'm fielding someone that has as much

formal one knowledge as that, my sister,

who has not been in for a while.

And I'm very concerned about what she's going to say.

I'm pretty sure she's...

Pretty sure she's...

Glad we're not live.

I can't say it.

I'm pretty sure she said Wagwan

at the start of her last phone call.

So let's see if she even picks up.

She said she would.

Very concerned.

Glad we're not live.

Let's see what she says.

Wagwan.

Or just not answer, maybe.

Hello.

Oh, wow, a very different introduction.

Hello, Georgina. How are you?

I'm good. I'm good. How are you?

I'm very well. Thank you.

We'll have a catch up at another point.

We're on the P1 podcast.

Please do not swear.

Disappointed you didn't start with Wagwan.

Right.

So can you please give me your third position for?

Which race is it, Georgina?

Actually, I have interest.

Do you know?

Out of interest, I'm in a professional setting

because I've at work, so that's why I said hello.

OK, my question wasn't that.

My question was, do you know which race it is?

I don't care.

Let's get to cut the chase.

Third place, third place, Alonso.

Yes.

For God's sake, Georgina, we're 10-9 behind.

Why have you done Fernando Alonso's third?

Maybe I will get frank to do that.

Right, OK.

Third place, Fernando Alonso.

Which is, mate, who's finishing in second?

Second place is going to be Max Verstappen.

All right, better.

Same as yours.

Better.

I enjoy that one.

That's what I went for as well.

And first place, please.

Hamilton's going to get Hamilton.

I could just feel it.

Charles Leclerc.

Oh, OK.

A Leclerc Verstappen Alonso podium.

Thank you so much, Georgina.

I appreciate your insight.

And have a good rest of your day at work.

Was it good?

Third is an absolutely an abomination.

But the other two are OK, I guess.

All right, thanks, mate.

Love you.

Bye.

Wow.

That was something.

I wondered where that was going after third place.

I won't lie to you.

Yeah, I mean, that would be good for the championship.

Yeah, that would be very good for the championship.

You even said to me, didn't you, when we were out in Austin,

I think we were coming back and we were talking a little bit about,

like, oh, you know what could happen in Mexico,

that you would allow a Charles Leclerc Verst

if Max finishes second and the McLaurin's on on the podium.

Yeah, true.

So we'll find out.

Right, I'm going to give my mum a call.

I don't think she's going to say wog one when she answers,

but you never know.

I hope so.

That would be something, wouldn't it?

Hello.

Hello, mum.

Hiya.

Yeah, I'm good.

Are you ready for your top three?

It's so difficult now.

I know.

Well, or is it?

You mentioned about your little crochet thing

and how you wanted less orange on there

because it was just dominated by orange.

Now it's all blue.

Stop staring and let's have a fair play.

OK, so can we get P3, please?

P3, piastri.

OK, P2.

Lando.

And P1.

Max.

Boring bell, England.

That is exactly the same as mine.

Oh, is it?

Yeah, yeah.

Oh, wow.

Max fuming that you've gone for a really normal prediction

for getting the dad literally went for Hamilton last time.

And I've got literally Frank to do two of them

and Grace to do two of them just so he can catch up.

But his sister's gone for a Lanzo third.

So we might be doing all right.

I was tempted.

I was tempted to go for Russell first.

There's obviously something there when it was great.

Yeah, miss out piastri altogether, but I know.

All right, thanks, ma'am.

Fingers crossed, we need to get back in the lead

because it's too close.

You're in the lead, you are in the lead.

Extend the lead.

It's not comfortable anymore.

All right, bye, ma'am.

All right then, see you.

Bye-bye.

Wow, there we go.

So I'm happy about that.

It's just my prediction.

It's literally my top threat.

That's crazy.

So you are all in.

All or nothing.

Yeah.

God for the turn one dive bomb and hope for the best.

Goodness gracious me.

Well, don't pretend that that's what you wanted to go for.

Yeah, true.

I didn't even want to go for it.

I forced you into that.

But thank you to my sister as well.

I want to apologize that I said about her will knowledge.

She did put at least one driver in there

that might have a chance of a podium.

And to be fair, I put Charlotte Clair on the podium as well,

but she went for first, which I will absolutely take.

And that is a wild predictions episode.

It has to be said, but a fun one all the same.

We will be live on Twitch and YouTube,

Matt P1, Tommy, for all of the competitive sessions this weekend.

Tommy, what are your final thoughts?

Final thoughts are I really will sacrifice and sorry.

Sorry, mum and dad, but the family top three for Georgina to be right.

And it's an Alonzo podium and Max Max on there

and not the McLaren's for the championship.

So to be fair, I'll take it.

Yeah, G's top three.

Sign me up.

That's that's a great race right there.

Thank you, everybody.

We'll see you very soon.

Lots of love to care. Bye.

Ferrari Off

Dodge Charger

About this episode

Original notes