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Our 2025 Qatar GP predictions
Our 2025 Qatar GP predictions
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About this episode
Matt and Tommy dive into their predictions for the 2025 Qatar GP, discussing the intense three-way championship battle between Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri. They debate sprint weekend strategies, surprise podium finishes, and potential flops, with spirited back-and-forths on who will claim pole, sprint, and race wins. The episode also features family predictions, humorous banter, and reflections on recent F1 events, all while teasing the thrilling conclusion to the season in Abu Dhabi.
Topics:
2025 qatar gp
f1 championship battle
lando norris
max verstappen
oscar piastri
sprint weekend predictions
podium surprises
race strategy
family predictions
season finale anticipation
We're down to the final two races of the season, with three drivers jostling for the Championship. So, we're here to answer the question on everyone's lips: who has Tommy's dad picked in today's crucial Family Top Three selections?
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Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. Penultimate F1
race weekend. We have a sprint weekend coming up and we have three drivers in with a shout
of the Formula One World Championship. Lando Norris, Max Verstappen. Do you hear that, Tommy? Max
Verstappen and Oscar Piastri. Tommy, how are we feeling ahead of this weekend where we could
have a three-way fight into Abu Dhabi or we could have a brand new world champion?
Yeah, it's going to be one of those moments where we know if we're going to get, well, we literally
will know either it's going to be the champion is crowned or we're getting a title finale for
the first time since 2021 and that went well, didn't it? So yeah, you reading that out then
just bought all the like butterflies and nerves back even and only just the start of the week.
Crazy. Absolutely crazy. Ready for some more butterflies, Tommy? You're currently leading
the predictions championship by three points. It's 55, 52. Is it three points or four points?
It's three points. Yeah, we both scored four. So it's a three-point gap. I can
tell you now I've locked in for this one. So it's a sprint weekend, as I mentioned,
which means even more predictions. Tommy, over to you. Good surprise. Good surprise. I'm going for
Oscar Piastri. I knew you were going to go for it as well. Oh, we love to see it.
Yeah, the rules. The things I want to say to you right now.
They're not good. Look, there's many different reasons behind this. One, Oscar Piastri is good at
Qatar. Two, McLaren are good at Qatar. Three, he can't be off the podium every race. Yeah,
he's of course been on a really poor run of form. He's not scored podiums and things
and Oscar has to turn his form around at some point. And you know, this would be an
amazing race to do it. It's a track he goes well at. It's a style of circuit that he's been strong at
throughout this year. Of course, we all know that it's not gone as well as it had at the start
of the year. But yeah, need I say more Oscar Piastri? Yes, need you say more say much more
because quite clearly from my computer, I was going to go for good surprise Oscar Piastri because
it makes absolute sense what you're saying, Tommy. So that's annoying. So instead, my good surprise is
Charlotte Clair. You didn't use the George Russell back. No, no, no. George can sit on the bench
this week. I've gone for Charlotte Clair. Let's not forget. Charlotte Clair finished second last
time out. We were here in Qatar and I've written Ferrari off massively going into the last two
races of the season, which means they've locked in. They've heard that I've written them off
and they've gone, well, watch this, Matt. So I'm not saying that Charlotte Clair is going to
win the race. I don't think I'll need that in order for it to be a good surprise. I don't
think we're expecting Ferrari to be particularly good this weekend. So just a solid points finish
and I'll take the point of the Predictions Championship. Thank you very much indeed.
Can't believe you stole my prediction. Literally out the blocks. I am fuming.
But look, this is the game. Now, the game's the game and you went first. So well done.
I feel like there's almost always been one ever since we kind of implemented this. There's
always one prediction it feels like. Yeah, it's devastating when you're on the receiving
end of having to change it. But anyway, well played, Tommy. Great minds think alike.
Let's now head to a big flop. My big flop. I'm behind. Alpine. Alpine. I was going to go for
Pierre Gasly. But you can score double points if the team do really badly. And look, they have
been all right these last few races. They have. Pierre Gasly has been flirting around the
points the last couple. And I just don't feel like Katar's going to play into their hands all too
well. I mean, let's not forget as well. I've said this, Pierre Gasly finished fifth in Katar last
year, which means if he doesn't finish in the top five again, I'm going to be calling for at least
half a point. But look, screw it. I have to do something different. I thought Pierre Gasly would
be bad. So why don't I just throw Colla Pinto in there as well? Sorry, mate. But Alpine.
Can't wait for a Colla Pinto. Peter. A big flop I have gone for. Kimmy Antonelli. I hope I'm wrong.
But of course, he's on a great run of thought. You know what I'm about to ask.
Is it banned? Is it banned? I didn't actually check. You didn't check? No, I feel like it is.
What's it called? You keep talking and I'll look it up.
Yeah. Okay. So Kimmy Antonelli. Yeah, he's been on an amazing run of form.
Will he continue that form going into a sprint weekend? I hope so. But of course, it's banned.
I had an inkling that it was. So that's why I thought people that don't know the meme
are very confused right now. But I'm sure that any time that titanium dioxide is allowed
as a food additive, Kimmy Antonelli has. It's basically top five all the time. Yeah. And every
time it's banned, he pretty much always lower than top five. Don't you put in permutations,
little p6 is not flop. I'm saying this is getting to crunch time. No, no, I was just sharing the
titanium oxide championship. The meme indeed. Okay. All right, Kimmy is locked in for you.
Let's now go to sprint pole position. Sprint pole I'm going for. Landonaurus. I don't think,
of course I don't, because I'm the pessimistic master sapham fan.
You could have just said that I don't think neither of us don't need predictions.
Yeah, true. I don't think I just guess. And that McLaren will be
nerfed by having to maybe potentially raise their right eye or be a little bit less
risky with the plank, of course, based on what happened in Vegas. I think it was extreme
circumstances that we had the qualifying and things like that. And this track has suited them
even when they were more of a midfield car and not the kind of championship dominant car,
constructors championship dominant car, of course, that we've seen this season say.
That's why I'm backing Lando to continue his good form.
You're just a Lando merchant you are, mate. That's the only place you get points these
days is putting Lando in. That's how you gained a three point lead on me. Just fully backing
Lando Norris. I can confirm I did not go for Lando for sprint pole position. I went for
Max Verstappen.
I feel it. I feel it in my bones. I feel it in everything. Max Verstappen is getting sprint
pole. We've said this before on sprint weekends, but the stats don't lie. Max is very good
when it is a sprint weekend. And that red ball I genuinely believe is, it's on for the next
two races for Max to win almost everything in my opinion. He's got a fresh engine from Brazil,
don't forget. And he's ready to just, I just feel like that Red Bull genuinely can challenge
for the win in both weekends. So I am backing Max Verstappen. I'm sorry Max Vans when this
doesn't come in, but I need it to come in. I have to back my boy Max Verstappen.
Let's now head to the sprint winner. The sprint winner.
Max Verstappen. It's MV33. No, it's not. It's MV1. Come on. I hope it's not.
There's no MV33 next year. It's going to be MV1. It's MV69 if he gets his way.
That would be quite something. The amount of merch being sold that has MV69 on it.
I don't want to think about that reality, but I'm not even trolling here when I say that yes,
McLaren, Qatar on paper, amazing. Let's not forget who won. Let's not forget who won the
Qatar Grand Prix last year. It was Max Verstappen. So over to you Max. I've put all my sprint eggs
in your basket. I've put all my sprint eggs in Landon, or is this basket? I've gone for Landon
or a sprint winner. It's funny that we've battled it out going for Oscar Piastri. Good surprise.
We're now picking between Max and Lando. I guess Oscar's form, of course, has been so poor recently.
What constitutes as a surprise is lower, but I do think Lando is going to be exceptionally
strong again. There is obviously a little bit of how will the nerves, will there be nerves
kick in that it's kind of an option, or will he take it into his hands and wrap up the title
early? Who knows? But yeah, I'm going for Lando, sprint winner. That's fair. A very fair analysis
and I could easily have gone all in on Lando Norris. I think that genuinely could happen
as well. But in my head, right, I'm playing out the scenario of Lando on pole. Very fair.
Max second, he is doing the most outrageously disgusting dive bomb into turn one, no matter
where he is. He knows he has to be ahead of Lando. And I think that will either mean mine
comes in, or neither of us comes in. I genuinely believe that we will see a Max Verstappen 2021-esque
from here on to the end of the season. He has to ask the question. It's just whether or not
that question is... Well, he was second, wasn't he? Last year because of the
one place penalty that he got, of course, which put him behind George Russell and he
took the lead. Yeah, that's the most insane infringement we've ever seen.
Right, let's head to pole position, Tommy. Pole position, gone for Lando Norris.
This could be the championship swinging either way. The predictions championship,
honestly, mate, you can have it if you're going for Max.
Yeah, it's a win-win for you. You don't care about the predictions
champion versus Max winning. This is my insurance, my predictions championship
insurance. If it goes wrong for Max. Yeah, pole, everything I've said before,
I think McLaren will be strong here. Lando still drove a good race in Vegas before the
disqualification. Before that, obviously brilliant in the previous two races before that.
Yeah, so I'm backing Lando Norris. So this may surprise you, but I was going
to go for Lando Norris. So I have to change my prediction to Max Verstappen.
I wasn't even going to do it. So Max fans, you can't say that I was going to go all in
because I wasn't. I was going to spread the eggs ever so slightly, but now we are
doing all the way to Max Verstappen land in this predictions championship and also
to make it close going into Abu Dhabi. So yeah, Max, I don't mind it. I deliberated
putting a George Russell rogue pole in there, but Max is the form driver at the moment,
along with Lando as well. They're both performing very well. So don't mind it.
This is it, by the way. Abu Dhabi doesn't matter. Predictions championship could well
be wrapped up at the end of Qatar with the amount of predictions we're doing this week.
Well, how many do we do usually? Obviously without the sprint. So it's one, two, three,
four, five, six, seven, eight. So Tommy, if you get a nine-point lead going into Abu Dhabi,
you've done it. So you need to help score me by six points this weekend. That's a lot. It's a big
score, but we've both gone very different directions. And if someone cleans sweeps,
it can go one of two ways. Right. Third position for the main race. I am locking in
Oscar Piastri. Oscar is getting a podium and it will be P3, yeah, because I just, I wanted to go for
good surprise Oscar. And as you kind of said, Tommy, a good surprise for Oscar doesn't constitute him
even necessarily beating Lando as you seem to be falling off your chair and doing things,
trying to activate your brain as to who you're going to put in third place,
because you clearly were going to go for Oscar as well. Maybe you're picking a name
up off the floor. But whatever it was you were doing, Oscar Piastri P3, and that is it locked in.
So I had gone for Oscar Piastri and we know what that means if I don't predict a driver.
I was like, it's very strange. I'm midpoint and you're just on the floor looking for something.
It was a George Russell hat, fair enough. Oh, and it's Mike's gone as well.
And yeah, I go for George Russell because I needed to be Oscar because I'd gone for Oscar
Piastri and I do think George will do well here. Okay, George Russell for you in P3.
What about P2, Tommy? P2. I've gone for Oscar. I'm going to change it to Oscar Piastri. Can I
change it? Does that work? Yeah. Oh, yeah, I can now. Can I? Oh yeah, we have done that.
I was just checking. Yeah, Oscar Piastri. So I'll switch him round because I had George Russell,
but I changed him to P3. So yeah, Oscar Piastri P2 would obviously be a great result for him,
not if Landon or his wins, of course, but a great return to form. And I can see you
thinking about what you do here, whether you go for the absolute FU moment.
All 3.4 billion simulations of this predictions championship.
To see if I have to put Franco Colopinto somehow. Well, no, but the thing is,
right, I either have to back max here and just go all in. Or if I put Landon for P1,
you'll just put max for P1 and be like, Oscar, it doesn't matter if that one comes in.
So realistically, do I want to have Landon P1, but then I have to put a George in at P2
or something. And then I don't have max at all. In second position, I'm going for Landon
Norris. Landon Norris P2. I'm sticking to my guns. I'm sticking to what I was going to do,
not change it because I will kick myself if I did change it and then I was wrong.
I'd kick myself more if I didn't go with my gut. And I know everybody's going to hate
the fact I've gone for max for Stappen for literally everything. And that used to be boring back in
2023. Now this is a rogue set of predictions from me. So Landon P2 could well be P1, but
this is the way I'm rolling the dice. Right with our head to P1. I wonder who I might go for.
Max for Stappen is winning it all. And should this happen? And I get everything right. I love
how I have good surprised Charlotte Clair and he's not even finished in top three in my
predictions. Maybe I'm going to regret that. But maybe a nice little P4
does something that has a bad qualifying due to an engine issue and comes through to P4.
That's a good surprise. I'm just thinking of every scenario where I can score points in every
single one of my predictions. But it's max P1. Should it finish in the top three the way
it is? That is seven point swings. That would then mean eight point swing if Landon
finishes second in the sprint as well, which puts it at a whopping 16 points going into the final race.
Indeed. So yeah, P1, I've gone for Landon. No surprise. I've gone all in on Landy,
gone all in on Max. And I am praying you win this week and the predictions championship
and dominate this week because of course I'd love to see it. But yeah, I'm too nervous and pessimistic
and everything and kind of worried about jinxing it. I've not even put Max at all in any of my
predictions, not even in the top three. I just can't even say the man's name at the moment.
One thing that's actually crazy is what you'll have seen by now that we did the
social clip about the order kind of being where we're like, oh, if this scenario happens,
and this does this, and this does that. And we were like, well, that's not going to happen.
It's funny that last year's result is actually Max just happened first Oscar
Piastri third and Landon was out the points. Honestly, he got 10th, didn't he? So yeah.
That would spice the championship up quite a lot. That would be very spicy indeed.
Whether that will happen again, very unlikely. Very unlikely. We shall see.
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the Jerry app or visit gerry.ai-acast today. Right. One crazy prediction, Tommy.
My one crazy prediction is that Lance Stroll outqualifies Fernando Alonso in either of the
qualifying sessions. You gave yourself two bites of the cherry there. Yeah, yeah. Big brain.
Very clever. I mean, not very clever. I was going to ask you why, but there's no point.
You've done that prediction about five times this year. I basically flip between that and
McLaren's pit stop times. Yeah, and you got that one last time out, and you weren't going to go
for this time because there's two stops at the very least due to the 25-lap maximum tire stint
length. My one crazy prediction, Oscar breaks the podiumless streak. Put it in there. Lock
it in. It's done. That free burger. Yeah, come on. Well, no, that's when he races now,
Tommy, so I will get that free burger if I go to Australia. Did that count if he was disqualified
last week? Technically, he's not classified. I mean, imagine that the tagline was,
anytime Oscar Piastri is classified. When Oscar Piastri appears at a Grand Prix weekend.
Oh, we laugh, but I hope for Oscar's sake, he does break this podiumless streak,
and that's why I've gone for it because I'll take a point and happiness as well to
see him back on the podium. I won Patreon prediction now, so if you are a P1 patron,
you can submit your predictions, and we choose one to be part of our set of predictions,
and you can score us a point. Please score me a point. My one comes in from Peyton G.
There is a controversial McLaren team order. I like that one a lot. Yeah, just like a little
Oscar, you're ahead of Lando in the sprint right now, but Lando is faster than you.
I don't know, just it doesn't even have to be move out the way. Just something that, you know,
it could be like a Fernando is faster than you type job. Something that makes us go,
not sure about that one, chief. So yeah, there you go. That's what I've gone for.
Yeah, like a hold max up will you for Lando or something?
Yeah, something that's just something as a championship protagonist, you shouldn't be
doing. Yeah, that's spicy. I like that one a lot. I've gone for Jim Clark is my goat.
Five or more different drivers across the sprint and race podiums.
Oh, okay. See that?
So you have a mix up of the order between the two races.
All right, an interesting weekend coming up if that happens. Right. It's now family top three
time. It's currently 12, nine to the Bellingham's and what I have done, what I have done is I have
actually locked Ellie in a room for the last three days to research every single parameter
possible for this predictions championship. She needs to put the wheel knowledge to the test
and she's got wheel knowledge. I need a clean sweep, Ellie. So please I will let her out the
room should this happen. For context, who's checking?
Hello. Yeah, for context, can you just say first and foremost, I haven't locked you in a room for
the last three days? Four days. Okay. All right. It's actually been four days.
Yeah. No, no, no, it's I just joked and then Tommy said maybe it wasn't clear that I was
joking. Anyway, hi. So we're 12, nine down to the boring Bellingham's. We need a clean
sweep from you this weekend. No pressure. But Tommy might well be fielding, I don't know,
an inanimate object is that clear that it doesn't really matter what he predicts. So
talk to me third place. Wow. I completely forgot about this until right this moment. I told
that we're going to channel the vibes. Yeah, sorry. I'm locking in. I'm locking in.
In third place, I'm going to go for George Russell. Okay. He's going to spawn into a podium. I don't
mind it. P2. Okay. P2. I'm going to go Max Verstappen. Wow. Giving up on the Max Hype
already. That's crazy. And in P1. I don't want to jinx him and I want him to win. But I guess
this way I kind of win both ways because either he wins, which is great. Or if he comes second
at least. Yeah, the insurance. What if he finishes third? Nobody wins. Yeah, that will be
sad. That will be really sad all around. But you can't win them all, can you? Okay. Max second and
in first. I'll go for a Lando win. Alrighty. Lando, Max, George. I kind of want a clean sweep,
but I'm happy to throw the family top three in order for it to be an interesting Abu Dhabi. So
thank you all the same, my love. I appreciate you and I'll speak to you soon. I love you.
Bye. Love you. Bye. She's gone for the pessimistic. Yeah. I'm not, you know,
I said all that lovey-dovey stuff. I'm not happy with that. I'm not happy because we've
got to either win, we've got to go all in or we've got to be like depressed. You know what I'm saying?
Like I'd rather she just went for a Max win and then everything goes down to the wire and it's
an exciting Abu Dhabi. But instead, like, you know, this comes in Lando's probably champion of the
world. But then it closes up in the championship, the constructors of the family. I mean,
congratulations to Lando. Don't worry. I'm saying this is a neutral. I just want to see
a close Abu Dhabi. I want to see a close Abu Dhabi where there's a smokescreen at turn one
before the race starts, like a big old smokescreen, and then Michael Massey just walks out.
After McLaren got disqualified, it cuts to the garage and he's shaving the plank at the McLaren.
Yeah. Or he kind of like swings in on some sort of like tightrope and then just
flies up to the stewards room. And anyway, you can tell what I'd say. Someone's definitely making
an edit of that. Okay, so I'm going to do something a little bit different because
my family are actually here. Some may know they live in France. So it's rare they're actually
here and they're actually here while I'm recording. So I'm going to actually feel my dad,
IRL. So he will take the hot seat and I wonder what he's going to say. Let me go get him.
Oh my goodness gracious me. He's here. He's ready to go. He just stood outside the room waiting.
Wow. Wow. This is a momentous occasion. He's got the F1 merch on as well. Seat down a bit.
Here we go. I'm at Tommy. You're looking good. This is Tommy in 30 years time.
First and foremost, before we get into the top three, what name are we calling Tommy this
week? Because you bring a new one to the table every time. We've had Belug, haven't we?
We have had Belug. Fred is the favorite. Fred is the favorite. Turtle. Turtle. We haven't. Turtle.
Perfect. Tommy Turtle. Tommy Turtle. When he was about two or three. Tommy Turtle.
And now Tommy Turtle, the ripe old age of 36, 37. Anyway, right. So where do you go
for the third place? Well, as the Boring Bellingham's have already got one hand on the trophy already,
Matt. Much to your disgust. I thought, you know, should I make your day brighter and go for an
Alex Albonne win? But no. Because in your words, winning is everything. So I think it's going to
be the well used Russell third. Oh, no. Okay. Third place. That's what that's what Ellie's
gone for. So you've already, you've already blocked that. That's fine. But that's allowed.
That's not part of the rules. Okay. Second place.
Piastri. Piastri P2. And in P1. Max. Okay. That Max Verstappen has had his name uttered
from a Bellingham, but it's not been Tommy because Tommy is afraid. That is amazing.
I know. But and can I just say one thing? Go on.
Hello, everybody. And welcome back. I've always wanted to say that. And you've done it. You've
nailed it. Amazing. You can come back more often. Tommy can have a week off. Thank you so
much. All right. Thanks very much. All the best later. You too. Cheers. Bye. Thanks, Ted.
You can edit it as much as you like.
There we go. There you go. So they Max Verstappen has had his name uttered, but not by you.
I know. I'm glad he went for something different there in like,
in a competitive spirit way. Because when when he said George Russell, I was like, oh,
it would be a bit anticlimactic. That's exact. I was like, no, he's going to say exactly the same
as any of the entire way through. But no, didn't even mention Lando's name in the top three.
Interesting. Very interesting. Did he put the William shirt on because he knew he was going
to have an appearance on the P1 podcast? Or is that just a leisure wear for him?
No, it's leisure wear. I love that. Big Alex Albin fan. And he was wearing a P1 hoodie
when he arrived as well, like the fan boy that is. Yeah, what an amazing dad. I was hoping
for a one, two for Williams. Let's not forget as well, if you score literally one more point than
the Gallagher's, it's done. It's over. Yeah, true. The Gallagher's have lost and the boring Bellingham's
I hope you're happy with the money kind of vibes, you know. But right, that is it. Thank you everybody
for tuning in to the penultimate predictions of the year. It has been a chaotic one. I think
chaos over the last few days of the things we've been doing live streams, podcast, etc.
Tommy, what are your final thoughts? Final thoughts are thanks to everyone. I'll shout out
everyone that joined us for the chaotic Vegas weekend and hope you're ready for another
amazing weekend of lots of streams because we've obviously got the sprint weekend.
And who knows, maybe a seven hour stream after the race when they're all in scrutineering
and we need to find out who's not another one, although I had a lot of fun in the live
stream that we did. And I've also just realized to my absolute disgust that with also, and this
is very basic arithmetic, that with your dad going for the same one as Ellie for one of the
positions, the Gallagher's cannot even level the scores going into Abu Dhabi. And have the
Gallagher even led the entire season? I don't know. I don't think so because I'm pretty
sure I'm pretty sure I had like a six one lead at one point. That's why I kept
having said I, by the way, not we. You know, it's a team. It's a team. You know,
Tommy trying to take the team manager, the Bellingham's absolutely disgraceful.
There are eyes in Bellingham's to be fair. So there you go. Right. Thank you, everybody.
We will see you for as Tommy said, lots of live streams, lots of podcasts. Make sure you're
following us on YouTube on Twitch and everything else. Matt P1, Tommy on Twitch if
you want to come and watch there. And of course we do it on YouTube as well.
And that is it. Time to go and rest a little bit before we get underway for
Qatar. Lots of love. Take care. Bye. Bye.
Boring Bellingham's. Go Matt. Go Matt.
Go me. Yeah. Not too fair. Not in the family, the main one.
Yeah. Get all the points. Yeah. And then it's kind of level-ish into Abu Dhabi.
Did you put land on the podium? Yes, second. Okay.
Okay. Goodbye. Take closer.
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