Our 2026 F1 season predictions
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Brand
Alpine
Alpine is a car company from France that makes sporty cars. They are also part of racing events like Formula 1.
Term
Q3
Q3 is the last part of the qualifying rounds in Formula 1 where the fastest drivers try to get the best starting spots for the race.
Term
2026 regulations
The 2026 regulations are new rules for Formula 1 cars that will start in 2026. They are designed to make the cars faster and safer while also being better for the environment.
Term
engine loophole
An engine loophole is a way that race teams might find a clever trick in the rules to make their engines perform better without breaking any laws.
Term
piston
A piston is a part inside the engine that moves up and down. It helps to push the car forward by compressing fuel and air and then using the explosion from that mixture to create power.
Term
compression ratio
Compression ratio is how much the engine squeezes the fuel and air mixture before it ignites. A higher number means the engine can make more power.
Term
power
Power in a car means how strong the engine is. More power usually means the car can go faster or accelerate quicker.
Term
ambient temperature
Ambient temperature is just the temperature of the air around us. It can change how an engine runs, especially when it's hot or cold outside.
Brand
Mercedes
Mercedes is a famous car brand that makes luxury cars. They are known for their high-quality vehicles and advanced technology.
Term
championship points
Championship points are scores that drivers earn based on how well they finish in races. The more points you have, the better your ranking in the championship.
Brand
Ferrari
Ferrari is a famous car brand from Italy that makes very fast and expensive sports cars. They are also well-known for their racing team in Formula 1.
Term
constructors' championship
In Formula 1 racing, the constructors' championship is a competition for teams. The team that earns the most points from their drivers wins the title.
Term
Formula 1
Formula 1 is a type of car racing that features very fast cars and takes place on special tracks. It's one of the most popular and exciting racing series in the world.
Company
Cadillac
Cadillac is a brand of luxury cars made in the United States. They are known for making comfortable and stylish vehicles.
Concept
Formula One
Formula One is a top-level car racing series where teams compete in races called Grands Prix. The cars are specially designed for speed and performance, making it a very exciting sport to watch.
Concept
engine formula
An engine formula is a set of rules that tells car makers how to build their engines for racing. It helps ensure that all cars are competing fairly.
Concept
Braun GP
Braun GP was a racing team that surprised everyone by winning a championship in 2009. They built a really good car that was faster than others, even though they weren't expected to win.
Brand
McLaren
McLaren is a company that makes fast sports cars and is also famous for racing cars in Formula 1. They are known for their advanced technology and performance.
Car
Dodge Charger
The Dodge Charger is a powerful car that many people love for its speed and style. The 1973 version is a classic, meaning it's an older model that some collectors really appreciate, especially if it's been taken care of well. The story of finding one that's been kept safe in a garage can be exciting for car enthusiasts.
Car
Pontiac Grand Prix SJ
The Pontiac Grand Prix SJ is a type of car that was made by Pontiac. The 'SJ' means it's a fancier version with better features than the regular model.
Term
podium
A podium in racing means finishing in the top three spots in a race. Drivers who finish on the podium get awards and recognition for their performance.
Brand
Red Bull
Red Bull is a racing team in Formula 1 that is known for being very fast and winning many races.
Concept
Formula 2
Formula 2 is a type of car racing that helps young drivers prepare for Formula 1. The cars are less expensive and easier to drive, making it a good training ground for future stars.
Brand
Honda
Honda is a car company from Japan that makes many different types of vehicles. They are known for their reliable cars and motorcycles.
Term
World Championship
The World Championship is a way to keep track of who is the best driver in a racing series over a season, based on points earned from race finishes.
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Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy.
The 2026 Formula One season is just around the corner.
The corner wasn't very long, was it? The actual straight towards the corner.
It's been a short break, but look, Tommy, it's been nice to turn our brains off a little bit,
you know, reset, spend some time with family and friends. But then there's also a part of
me when the weekend's come around where I'm like, I should be doing something. I should
be cheering on that glorious red team even though I'm wearing black today because I'm
mourning everything because, you know, it's it's so over. But spoilers, like you don't know,
you don't know what's going to come up my mouth Tommy once we get to the predictions.
But how excited are you to be back? I'm very excited. It feels like the Abu Dhabi
Grand Prix finished 20 minutes ago now I'm sat here recording with you. But
I'm excited for the new season. I mean, it's quite literally the 7th of January. So
this is the earliest we've ever done content ever, I think.
Yeah, definitely, because we're basically going to be getting car launches very, very soon, which is
insane. They're very rarely this early, because I think all the cars are going to break down and
private tests and all that kind of stuff. So it means very, very early predictions,
but it means we can get into the F1 excitement even earlier, which I'm
certainly not going to complain about.
Yes, the first car launch is under a week away now.
And when this goes out, it'll be like three days time.
Yeah, I guess when it goes out, of course, time of recording is about a week. But yeah,
it's crazy to see the amount of car launches we're even going to one as well. We won't say
any more than that when we are going to a car launch. Very excited for that. But I know you're
all here for one thing and one thing only. And that's our predictions for the 2026 F1 season.
Something we like to do if you're new to P1, we do our predictions before testing.
And then we revisit after we've learned a little bit to see how we would
sit with a first to 20, sorry, 22 now. 22 cars.
And then still be wrong. And then still be categorically, catastrophically even
wrong. But that's the beauty of P1. And if everybody was correct,
they'd all be making a lot of money.
And this is even more fun because we've got new regulations, which means that pecking
order should be shaken up. We don't know. It's only Twitter rumours and all that kind
of stuff. So yeah, it should be interesting to see what we go for. Because we've made these
predictions before. We always do before testing, like you say. But normally, it's kind of like
same regs. So you kind of know who's going to be up there to a point. Whereas this is like, whoa.
This is so many changes. I'm sure we'll talk about
everything that's coming for 2026 at some point and give our opinions.
One thing I want to clarify right here and right now, Tommy, is of course we're doing
these predictions. It's very similar format to what we have for our main race podcast stuff
and our predictions. Are we allowed to go for the same thing at any point? Or is it whoever
gets in there first? That's locked in. And then you've got to think on the fly. Because
in my brain, I'm thinking the second one's more fun. Because when we come to reviewing this,
oh, I went for the same thing. Well, we'll see. I don't know. Last year, I'm trying to
think we didn't do any of the same, did we? Will this be the same? Well, maybe. Who knows?
Who knows? It becomes a problem and we've done exactly the same thing. We'll re-record and none
of this ever happened. Right. Let's get into it. The first prediction is a good surprise
for the season. All right. Hear me out. So my good surprise for this season is
Pierre Gasly. Don't tell me. You've done the same thing, haven't you?
No, I'll save it. I'll save it. We'll save it for you a bit. Pierre Gasly
is... I might as well just give myself a point now. Because Alpine, we all know just how dreadful
they were. When they put literally no resource into 2025, they put everything into 2026. There's
a few things, right? That my brain, yes, I do have a brain, thinks about here. It's not just
let's just roll the dice and see what happens. Alpine, they've put everything into this year.
Pierre Gasly is a brilliant driver. Couldn't believe, by the way, when we went on Tomo's
Big Fat Quiz of the Year and found out he'd been in Q3 11 times or something. Absolutely
ridiculous. Crazy, yeah. Was it even 13? 11? Anyway, there's a lot that was a big number.
That also Alpine have Mercedes engines, which if we go by the rumours that have been floating
around, Mercedes and Red Bull have found a loophole already in the 2026 regulations of
giving them three tenths a lap with the way in which their engine is, as much as I know,
from a technical standpoint. Yeah, should we chat about that? Because my father-in-law
actually used to build engines for his job. Oh, and we've got him on the phone right now.
So he actually explained it to me and basically it's the... Oh my god, I can only imagine
by the way how wrong this is going to be. And also how he's explained it to you,
because we both are not particularly engine nerds. He told me weeks ago, so this is all
going to be wrong, so I apologise for throwing him under the bed. He's a very good engine builder.
But it's something to do with the piston and the compression ratio of the piston going within the...
As it moves and basically what the teams have found is they can expand that so there's less
gap going into the piston going up and basically that means that it delivers more power.
It's 16-1 is the rules, but they've found and basically it said it has to be an ambient temperature,
which means they've basically seen that loophole and gone, well, it is when it's sat there doing
nothing, but when we're actually driving, it's going to be 18-1, give them three tenths a lap
and they might well be clear and all the other teams are complaining already.
So I am going to say right now that that is the one and only time we will ever do technical
talk for the rest of the P1 existence. Particularly when all the comments say it's wrong.
Yeah, it's wrong and we're also trying to be very technical. So let's say that's the last
time we ever do that. Oh yeah, don't worry. But yes, it is interesting to see and also the fact that
it's come out basically saying the FIA they're not going to do anything. They can't change it
now because it's far too late in the rulebook and the development for the teams. So
going to be fascinating to see if that genuinely is a massive advantage for those teams.
I didn't hear Ferrari in that loophole part, but that's why I've come to Pierre Gasly,
good surprise. Tommy, who have you gone for? So I had gone for Alpine. I'm going to change it
because it's boring to go for the same and I'm going to do for the good of the podcast.
I'm going to go for another one that I had that I was thinking about doing. So I'll go for that
one, which is Gabriel Bortoletto. He was in my locker as well. Was he? Okay. That's a worry.
Yeah, I think, look, I don't think Audi are going to be like absolutely unbelievably amazing
and really, really good. I think this is more based on the fact that I don't think, well, I
know for a fact his position in the World Championship does not reflect on the season he
had, doesn't certainly reflect at all the kind of how comparable he was to Nico Holkenberg and things.
And I think he's going to do a good job and he's only going to be better
having that rookie year under his belt. So I do genuinely think he is a really special talent
and could have a very high ceiling. I think he's going to have a really bright future. And I
don't think that the 19th last year in the championship reflects his talent at all. So
I'm going to go for Bortoletto. Gosh, was he 19th in the end? That is crazy. He was the
last of the point scorers, which is mad because he's got 19 points, which last year would have put you
quite high up the championship. The beauty of the midfield and the way it chopped and changed.
Yeah, it's a fair one. I think it was also, as I say, a backup for me to potentially say
Gabriel. So best of luck to him. Now, something we have included as well
in this predictions for the season episode, which I think adds a nice little new
features that we got all of you to vote as to who you believe would be the good surprise.
And we've got the top three. So in third place, with 9.3% of the vote was Carlos Sainz. Carlos Sainz.
Could see that. Surprise. Is it a good surprise? Yeah, this is the thing.
Obviously people are expecting Williams to be good. They've got the Mercedes power.
I think they'll be good. But would it be like a surprise if Carlos Sainz is
getting the odd podium? We had a couple of podiums last year.
It'd need a good five or six, I think. I think you'll do well for sure.
Maybe even a cheeky win. That would be a good surprise locked in.
In second place, with 10.6% of the vote, Kimmy Antonelli. This one I can see.
Again, it's funny, the way you measure a surprise because everybody's expecting Mercedes
to be very quick. Kimmy Antonelli would have to win a couple of races at the very least, I would say.
Yeah, exactly. It's funny how you measure a surprise and this is why we have the
conversations after and it makes it fun in the podcast that we can have a little bit banter
about it. Because you can say, oh, well, then you scored this many points here before.
Or because you can argue that we've spoken about Mercedes and potential
advantage they could have. George Russell is going to be obviously one of those people that's
very favored. But if you said George Russell is going to be a surprise, people would be like,
was it a surprise? But then you could go, well, you finished fourth in the championship and 100
points off last time. So yeah, it could change. But Kimmy Antonelli, yeah, he's going to have a
very good car you'd imagine underneath him and could see him certainly getting wins and things,
for sure. And first place for the fans, an overwhelming 20% of the vote, is Isaac Hachar.
Now, this one, I think, is free real estate. As long as he doesn't finish 17 in those four
races. So he doesn't get 24 road basically in the years.
Yeah, pretty much. And I can agree with this one. I think it's a very fair shout.
We both, I think, are of the opinion, aren't we, that Hachar's going to do better than what
we've seen in recent years with the new regulation change. I think being something
that should massively help a driver coming into the dreaded second seat of Red Bull.
So yeah, Isaac Hachar 20% of the vote. And I would have been one of them if I wasn't
going to go with the flow. I was going to go a little bit different with Pierre Gasly.
Yeah, definitely. I can see why this is a popular take because, yeah, Red Bull, new
regulations maybe, he's kind of got that buffer of if Red Bull are good and he does well,
that's the chance for a good surprise. But also if he's just
anywhere near comparable to Max or occasionally beats him in a qualifying session because
it's been so bad for the second driver, the bar is incredibly low for him and
it might help with the low expectations for him.
Yeah, low, but also a lot of spotlight still very much will be on Hachar and a lot of pressure
there as well. So let's see how he does.
Although Helmut Marke has gone now, so maybe not.
He has gone. I wonder how that whole dynamic is going to work at Red Bull with
him leaving. Right, we now go from good to bad to a big flop. We can't go for driver
or team, Tommy. We can. Okay, all right, it's over to you.
So my big flop is Ferrari again. It's free real estate, like you mentioned earlier.
I'm going for them again. I thought about going for something different. I thought about who it
be, but I just I'm worried about Ferrari. I really am. Funnily enough, when I did my big
flop prediction in 2025 for Ferrari, my exact words while I reveled in it was I think they're
going to be absolutely amazing in 26 and they're just going to sack off the season.
I don't think that now. Mainly because obviously this loophole is worrying.
Let's talk about Charles Leclerc saying he's not too impressed and things.
They seem a team that are under pressure and I'm not confident in Ferrari's ability.
Cool. All right. Nobody asked. That's probably the first. You're starting 2026,
really strong with the Ferrari slander. Back to back flopping. Well, you mark my words, Tommy.
You will eat them. You will eat them. Yeah, exactly. And I'll be saying, well,
that was a successful season compared to last year. Oh, dear. Look, fair enough.
I've got to respect it. Well done. It's not going to be as, oh, wow,
well done, Tommy, this time because people don't think have the highest hopes for Ferrari either.
No, I can't sit here and go. They're joint constructors favourites this year because they're
definitely not. No, no. But if you run out of belief, what's left? All right. So that's good.
All right. Thanks for that, Tommy. Over time. The all black. Yeah, no. I'm wearing black for
reasons because of Ferrari. So there you go. My big flop for 2026
is Cadillac. On a similar thought train, they are coming into the sport fresh.
They also have a Ferrari engine in the back of that. So if the engines are pretty good on the
Red Bull and Mercedes side and Cadillac are joining the sport completely new, I just think they
are going to be one of the slowest cars on the grid. I don't mean any disrespect by that. The
odds are stacked against them, I would say. As much as it is a new regulation set, it's still
so difficult to come into Formula One and come out the blocks firing. They've brought in two
very experienced drivers, which I think the way my thought process is going is that they've
brought them in for a reason to give them both a spanner and a wrench and say, right,
how do we build this? Maybe even a hammer as well. Let's try and get a team working and firing in the
next few years. I may well eat my words with this and they get loads of podiums. But for me, the
big flop is Cadillac. Interesting. Yeah, I'm not. I can see why you've gone for this one.
In the live shows, I remember people mentioning about Cadillac and I said with my chest like,
I don't think they're going to be as bad as some people think because they're basically doing
the right thing of not starting from scratch with an engine and stuff. I'm more concerned now
that it doesn't sound like the Ferrari engine is going to be that good. Had they got a Mercedes
engine in the back, maybe. But so they're doing the right thing in that sense. And I think
my initial thinking was, well, if Ferrari build a good engine and it's all looking good for
Ferrari, they're taking parts from them and then it's not going to be as bad and it's
going to be an engine formula. It's certainly not looking as good for Cadillac. It is going to
be a big ask, I think. And based on, I mean, at the end of the day, this could all age really
badly. We're obviously of a similar opinion with engines and things, but there is things
can surprise us and you never know until we get to that first test. It could be a complete
surprise and we might, Ferrari or Cadillac might turn up and do a Braun GP and accidentally,
we've built a car half a second quicker than everyone and who knows. And then you'll
bring in the Tommy's tech talk and be like, well, actually they've got a 1 in 21 compression now.
Yeah, fantastic. Well, but for now, we're both of thinking that anything Ferrari powered might
well struggle. So the fans top three for a big flop in third position with 9% of the vote,
Lance Stroll. How bad does it need to be? Yeah, I was going to say, does he just not turn up
for half the season? Like that would, that would kind of. Rage quits. Adrian Newry doesn't
cook and he goes, dad, I've had enough to be promised to be fair as well. If he if he
out qualifies Alonso once, that is almost good surprise to her true for Lance Stroll. So
9% for Lance in second place with 14.6% of the vote. Lando Norris. We've not even mentioned
champion, the reigning champ. Yeah, the reigning champion, the constructors champions
McLaren and we've not mentioned them in this entire podcast so far. So a lot of fans
thinking that Lando will not win the world championship clearly with this flop vote and
perhaps not much confidence in McLaren. Yeah, that's a bold one to flop Lando.
Still think it'll be fairly strong. Our people forgetting McLaren also will have a Mercedes engine
and they beat Mercedes with their own engine last year. And also had a lot of the year.
Obviously, they only just got it over the line, but there was talk that
they could develop their car a lot more because they were like, well, we're clear,
we can focus on 26. So yeah, I don't I don't see Lando flopping, but you never know.
Me neither. I think McLaren will. I think they'll be strong.
Like, which is weird. Yeah, I think quite a lot of fans is this massive shake-up and
McLaren not being the fastest and they could so easily still be the fastest car
come the start of this season. And in first place for a big flop with 22.4% of the vote,
Lewis Hamilton. That's an overwhelming choice. Yeah, again, people thinking
despite the regulation change, despite some theories, which I back of Lewis Hamilton
just not being good in this ground effect era and maybe now that we're coming out of that,
he'll be able to find some of his form again. I don't think Hamilton's going to flop this
year. I think Ferrari may well. Let's see. But for Hamilton, it's a bit like your Alpine prediction,
the bars low already, right? Because yeah, he's kind of finished and he didn't have a podium.
Doesn't need to be the top five. Oh, God, don't even don't even float that because that just
shows just how bad Ferrari. You're not even expecting a top five for Ferrari. No, I'm just
saying that's what that's what would have to happen for the crazy predictions later.
Yeah. Oh, goodness. Is it even that crazy anymore? Oh, you're so depressed.
Yes, I'm wearing full black Tommy and you know exactly why.
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Right. Let's go to a new race winner. This is where we decide whether there will be or
won't be a new race winner. And if we say yes, then we get to select who is going to become a
new race winner. And if we get a driver correct, then we get a point for each.
But if you go for multiple and they don't win, you lose all the points. So it's like a gamble
of how many do you go for? Yeah, it's true. It's true. Damn, I've listed the entire grid.
You've listed everyone. You've gone for all of them.
Oh, no, I was wrong.
You thought you'd seen an engine compression loophole there, didn't you?
I really did. I really did. I was like, he hasn't even specified that.
I'm just going to roll out the rollback. The P1 rollback is out.
Oh, okay. All right. Do I do my interpretation of the rules?
I think ask it. Let's just let's just let's just roll the dice.
So my new race winner decision is yes.
And my new race winner is Kimmy Antonelli.
Is Alex Albon. Oh, I love that.
And his Isaac had you. Oh, wow.
I'm putting three down. I'm putting three down.
None of those are coming true. They're not even going to get a podium this year.
Really sorry for all three of them. The reason I've gone for that,
Kimmy Antonelli and the Mercedes that I believe may well be the fastest car.
Alex Albon. In a Williams that is moving forward, I'm thinking crazy race right now.
I'm not saying Alex Albon is going to challenge for the world championship.
He's not even had a podium at Williams. But I can't go for Carlos Sainz.
He's already won a race. So I'm going for Alex Albon, crazy race.
Mercedes-powered Williams. Yes, please. Isaac Hadjar.
I think he's going to do a lot better at Red Bull.
Red Bull also are this team supposedly with a quick engine.
And who's to say that he won't score one victory over the course of 24 races?
So that's my thinking. I've rolled it.
Let's see how much more crazy or less crazy Tommy goes.
So a new race winner I have gone for.
Yes, I've gone for just Kimmy Antonelli.
And I was really close to going for Alex Albon as well.
Were you? Okay.
I was close. I don't think Hadjar's winning a race.
Because looking at the realistic options here,
Lance Stroll is Aston Martin going to be amazing.
Of course, I forgot that my list has a point gone.
I've gone for Kimmy Antonelli.
Because I think the Mercedes is going to be very, very good.
And surely he's going to get a win this year.
You'd assume if the car is as hyped as everyone thinks.
Can you imagine if the Mercedes isn't actually any good now?
And the amount of air gone everyone's faces will be insane.
Mercedes mainly would not be a good look.
I can't remember.
It's really hard to remember back in 2014 and also back in 2022
when we basically had these new regulations
and they're being such like an overwhelming
favourite when we've not even had testing yet.
It's really quite bizarre, isn't it?
Crazy. Yeah, it is.
We're just scarred from 2014, I think, of how good they were.
Exactly. Into another engine formula.
If you weren't watching then, one, you're kind of lucky
because it was so bad.
Yeah, we're talking safety car restarts and after two laps
there's seven and a half seconds down the road.
That is the moment, isn't it, that everyone brings up
when you've got a taster of just how good they were.
They were probably running like 40% engine mode
for the whole season and we're still clear.
And it was a foregone conclusion that we're going to win everything.
So here's hoping no offensive Mercedes that it's not that.
Right, well, let's go to Constructors Champions.
I wonder what Tommy's going to lock in.
I have gone for Mercedes.
Yeah, I have gone for Mercedes.
I really, this is no disrespect to Mercedes.
I really would like it to be different or at least close.
I'm not against them obviously winning.
I love how we're sick of their domination and not even dominated.
We're sick of their imaginary domination based on vibes and
rumor tweets and what is it, engine runnings of engines
and rumors coming out of the paddock.
But it's just so hard to see past them.
We mentioned 2014.
I think it is the fact that 2014 they were so rapid.
I already thought Mercedes were going to be strong
and I think they would have been favorites.
But I think this loophole thing and hearing that is just knocked it up
another level of overwhelming favorites, I think,
in terms of just the fact that they are going to be potentially,
it's suited to them massively anyway,
and they've potentially found this loophole.
So Mercedes.
Mercedes have won in Tom Bellingham's eyes.
Constructors Champions for myself?
I'm going to go different.
McLaren.
Okay.
I want to put some respect on their name after winning the Constructors Championship
by 400 points or whatever it was last year.
I was going to go for Mercedes, but you may as well go for something
which is also a very viable suggestion.
Everyone, not everyone, but as you say,
there's a lot less hype for McLaren coming into this year
despite them having exactly the same engine as Mercedes.
Of course, it puts Mercedes in a better stead
because they can develop their car around the plans
that they are creating for said engine.
So they're always going to have a slight advantage,
but McLaren could easily do it as well.
Great driver lineup as well, strong drivers.
Yes, who are only going to get better, I think.
So, yep, McLaren for me.
What about the fans?
They're top three.
In third place with 7.4% of the vote, Ferrari.
How many burner accounts did you make?
Well, not me, mate.
Yeah, true.
I'm not even wearing Ferrari today.
7.4% of people.
Haven't been reading any formula on this for the last time.
It makes a lot of sense, actually.
7.4%, just over the Christmas period.
A lot of people having some nice jolly drinks
and their delirium has gone sky rocketing.
They've had a red wine and gone red, Ferrari.
Ah, it's a sign.
So yeah, 7.4% of the vote have been wrong.
So well done, everybody.
Ferrari in third place.
In second with 24.2% of the vote, McLaren.
There we go.
Okay.
We speak about McLaren by the fans.
And 24% is a pretty high percentage.
And I think it's a very fair one to keep them in the mix.
They're not going to be miles off.
I really can't see that.
Yeah, I think McLaren are going to be there.
Like, let you say they kind of forgotten about.
I don't think it's a rogue shout.
They've got two great drivers.
They've got a Mercedes engine in the back
which is going to be strong.
They've had that time potentially to develop
because they were so strong last year.
And I do think McLaren will still be a very strong package.
And there's no points for saying who's going to finish second.
But just to say how much I sort of believe in McLaren as such.
If I had to predict who I thought
would be second behind Mercedes in the championship,
I'd probably have gone for McLaren, so.
Okay.
And in first place, and this kind of consolidates
what we've been saying about fans thinking Mercedes
is going to be quick with 59% of the vote, is Mercedes.
So a lot of people on the Merck bandwagon,
a lot of people could easily be wrong.
And that's the beauty of 2026.
Don't turn off yet.
The season has not begun.
And as much as I'm in mourning,
like, things will get rosier.
Nothing has happened.
They might turn up to testing.
And well, right, I'm going to change everything now
for anyone that thinks Mercedes is going to dominate.
I know I've predicted Mercedes and saying that they're going to be.
But look at what happened with the wind tunnel.
And then when they actually got onto the track
with their size zero thing in 22,
people thought they were going to be very good then.
And they weren't.
So you never know.
Like they haven't turned a wheel yet.
I can see why they're overwhelming favourites.
And obviously we have bought into that theory as well.
And I think it's a sensible theory to go for.
But it's not.
They've not won the championship, is what I'm saying before testing.
I can see the headline now.
Tom Bellingham announces the season is not over yet.
Keep watching.
Yeah, I need one in Drive to Survive,
like a Will Buxton style.
You can't win the championship without doing any running.
Without ever driving your car on a track.
Right now, Alex Albon is leading the world championship
on alphabetical order.
And Maxis Appen's last.
Absolutely finished driver.
So finished.
Honestly, why would you support him?
OK.
Now we get onto the interesting one.
World champion.
2026.
Who are we going to lock in?
So it's my turn to go first.
World champion.
I'm changing it as I head or heart.
I'm changing it as I go.
There's about eight different names.
My world champion for this season.
Charlie Clair.
We're so back.
We're so back.
We're so back.
We're so back.
Like, come on, if I can't believe on the 6th of January
as of recording that some miracle might happen.
Right.
By the way, this is the last time
I will predict Charlie Clair world champion.
It's only the only reason is because it's a new regulation set.
If Ferrari are genuinely that bad,
you know, and we we see them sixth fastest,
I won't I won't be I won't be
predicting until the next regulation change.
Always move teams.
But for now, as I said last year,
as I said the year before that,
I would kick myself if Charlotte Clair did become world champion
and I did not predict him.
So we're so back.
Morning complete.
And I am now in belief mode until the first corner of testing.
So so you've gone for your heart with your head to George Russell?
My head was Charlotte Clair, bro.
I don't know.
Oh, OK.
I am locked in like forever.
Ignore all the rumors is what I'll say
from here on.
Load of rubbish.
Merck and Red Bull three times clear.
Whatever.
Wow.
OK.
Interesting.
No.
My head was George Russell.
I had it written down the entire time.
Yeah.
Let's let's be real here.
Well, let's not be real.
Let's let's be fun.
Let's be fun.
Let's be fun.
Come on.
OK.
I think I get five points of Charlotte Clair world
champion comes in.
Just out of interest.
Yeah.
Maybe it's like you're not allowed to go for George Russell.
Is the I love that George does not want a world
champion.
He's not allowed to shoot him.
That's crazy.
He's not even led the world championship.
OK. World champion I have gone for.
Sadie's driver.
Kimmy Antonelli.
Yeah.
I was going to I was going to go for George Russell
but it's boring.
It's it's boring.
So yeah.
And right.
So.
Two very viable options by the way.
Charlotte Clair and Kimmy Antonelli.
No.
I'm going to I'm going to I'm going to present
the evidence now for Kimmy Antonelli.
OK.
So there's.
Don't ask me for my evidence.
Four.
Four.
This sounds like a listical.
Four reasons why Kimmy Antonelli is going to win
the world championship.
Oh no.
Do it a bit more.
Four reasons why.
Four reasons why.
OK.
OK.
So first first one is.
Last year Oscar Piastri.
No one gave him a prayer compared to Landon Orris.
And yet.
McLaren rolled out with the best car
and the car was suited more to the driver
that people didn't expect.
And Oscar went on this amazing run
and was so close to win the world championship.
And I think there's part of me in that head
that goes.
Yeah, there's no way Kimmy Antonelli is going to be able
to win the championship against Russell.
But like.
Stranger things have happened in F1.
Two.
I read that the new regulation of cars
feels more like a Formula 2 car to drive.
And he's driven it recently.
So that goes on with the.
So dominated Formula 2.
So we're back.
We're so back.
Three.
The final seven races of last year.
Kimmy Antonelli is four three up in the head to head.
So he's actually had a better end to the season.
If I take the exact results that I need to make that happen.
Have I missed the fourth one,
which is a news headline that titanium dioxide
has been allowed throughout the entire globe?
No.
The fourth one was I didn't want to be boring
and go for George Russell
because I actually think it's going to be with George Russell.
But I would.
I just think it's almost like too obvious to go for.
And I want to go for someone different.
Even if I'd gone for George Russell,
it still would have been boring,
even though I've never predicted George Russell
to win the championship.
It just feels like such an obvious pick that vibes.
Why not?
Also, you know, we're talking about this.
And we've spoken about it a lot in this podcast
of the rumors and the engines and this, that and the other.
Not one word about your man, your boy.
You didn't even didn't even cross your mind
to put MV.
As much as I do this year.
And MV three as he's referred to now.
DR three these days.
Hmm.
Yeah.
And it didn't go for Max the first year in P1 history
that you've still gone for Charlotte Claire.
Something that just don't need to be changed.
Exactly.
Yeah.
I've not gone for Max this year.
I'm going to, I do hope it's not the case
that Mercedes is going to run away with it.
But I think all the signs are pointing
that they are going to be very strong.
And I'm just going to go different and go for Antonelli
because I do think he's going to have a really good season.
It's so funny because, you know, we've spoken about Mercedes
being the fastest, absolutely done and dusted.
But I have had some weird trains of thought
over the last few weeks of what if Audi just,
just had the fastest car in the Hülkenbergs world champion.
You know, and I was, because I'm obviously thinking
about what I'm going to do for this predictions.
It's a big one.
You know, this is a big, massive regulation shift.
And I've thought of almost every possibility
and almost everything has some kind of
viable reasoning as to why you would go for that.
Like you've got, we haven't even said about Aston Martin.
They've got Adrian Newey.
Yeah, this is crazy.
And Fernando Alonso.
But then the negative side of that is that
how much can Newey do in an engine formula?
We saw in 2014.
Couldn't really do much against the mighty Merc.
So it's, it's so up in the air.
That's what that's the beauty.
And this is something I love about Formula One.
Of course, we complain, don't we,
at the end of every regulation set,
why are they changing the rules?
Oh, they're just getting closer.
But then you come to this point
and it's the unknown that just keeps you gripped.
And yeah, I'm looking forward to it immensely
until qualifying.
Said team is second.
You never know.
You never know.
You never know the fans.
What do they know?
The top three in third place, 12.9% of the vote,
Oscar Piastri.
Little Oscar.
Good pick.
Sliding in.
We absolutely love to see that.
And a very fair one.
I think Oscar, he's going to have learned a lot from last year.
And I am fascinated to see how that McLaren dynamic works
from this year and beyond.
Of course, Lando is world champion.
He doesn't have number one in his contract
as far as we're aware.
But how does the world champion status
change the game in those McLaren garages?
Oscar kind of has a bit of a point to prove
with how he ended the season last year.
It was a horrible tail-off.
That's what cost him the championship.
But I just feel as though there is still steps to go
in Oscar Piastri's potential
that could well see him as world champion.
But you have to also believe in the McLaren project
and whether they'll be able to continue on
creating the fastest car like they did last year.
Yeah, definitely.
I think Oscar is a good pick because
I think it's such a shame that the season ended as it did
because I think people just like wrote,
it's that recency bias of like they wrote off Piastri
and he was kind of, he didn't get over the line.
It obviously looks way worse than what it was
that he finished third in the championship.
It's crazy to think a first and second
between him and Lando flipped the other way.
Oscar wins the world championship.
That shows how close it was in the season.
But yeah, he's ultimately finished third.
But it's only a third season in Formula One,
he's going to improve.
So I think this is a good pick.
I think Oscar's a great shout for it.
In second place with 28% of the votes,
Tommy fails to speak about him,
but Max Verstappen gets a whopping amount of the votes
considering Red Bull.
I know, Tommy, you've said in the live shows,
they're going to be terrible,
not looking forward to this season.
Then some members come out.
How we found the loop?
What percent, Tommy?
What percent right now?
We'll find out later.
No, we'll find out later.
Oh, will we?
Okay, I didn't see that coming.
Gosh, everybody is on the edge of their seats.
Let's go to first place for the fans then.
34.8% of the vote, George Russell.
The fans think George will do it,
but only by 6% over Max Verstappen.
But unsurprising to see GR up there.
But no, Kimi Antonelli, not even making the top three.
Do you want to guess who?
So, yeah, on George Russell, obviously,
there's no surprise he's the favourite.
I think Max is the bookie's favourite,
but I think last year showed you can never write him off right.
Even though, yeah, there's logic there that
there's a new engine,
so it's going to be difficult, an engine formula.
Have a guess who was fourth.
So top three are George, Max and Oscar.
Fourth. No, it's not.
It's Lando.
I was going to say Lando.
Yeah, yeah.
I was looking at Charles probably back then.
So interestingly, Oscar had nearly 13% of the vote,
Lando, 8% of the vote.
So more people thinking Oscar this year.
Fifth was Charles Leclerc.
Hello. Come on, my belief is out there.
With a whopping 6.5%.
Yes.
And then next was not Kimi Antonelli,
which is crazy.
It's Fernando Alonso.
So people on this Adrian Nui hype train.
That was where your vote went.
I've read some stuff that they don't think
that the engine is going to cut it,
which is a worry.
And this is what we said.
But again, it's all just hearsay, isn't it?
And rumors, maybe they're sound-bagging.
Then it's Lewis Hamilton, which is...
Now that would be a terrible one.
So Kimi Antonelli is...
Can I see what the vote is of Kimi Antonelli?
Can he even appear on the chart?
Is it even in the top table?
He's not even there.
Oh, yes he is.
0.8% of the vote was Kimi Antonelli,
which is crazy when his teammate is literally favorite.
So that's incredible.
So almost everybody listening thinks you're wrong,
which is quite something.
Whereas 6% believe in the dream.
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We now move to our crazy prediction for the season.
Tommy, hit us with yours.
Okay, pessimistic Tommy is back.
Depressive pessimistic Tommy.
My one crazy prediction for 2026
is that Max Verstappen does not win a race.
Not one race.
Never happened in his whole red bull career.
I don't see it.
I don't see it.
I reckon he wins the first race of the season.
Like this coming year that happened,
where he just so nearly did it, didn't he?
And we say it's going to be terrible.
Not one race.
No.
You think red bull are going to be that slow,
that he can't miraculously
with a little cheeky reign or whatever?
I mean, I've got to go crazy and I just can't see.
That's insane prediction.
Even after, I had a little bit more hope
after I heard that they potentially maybe
found this loophole as well.
But I just think they're going to be so on the back foot
having their own engine at the start.
Maybe they'll catch it,
but yeah, I've got to give something bold
and that was the boldest thing
and I've never wanted to be wrong more.
Yeah, fair enough.
Okay.
All right.
So yours is pessimistic.
So is mine, but not for Ferrari.
Ferrari.
For a tire.
For a four-wheel.
That my crazy prediction is Aston Martin
are one of the slowest teams
and Fernanda was not on the grid in 2027.
That's weird though, isn't it?
Because he was quoted as saying,
if the car's really good,
I'll do well then retire,
which is I don't see that personally.
No, no, no, just let it rubbish.
He's only going to retire if
if he sees there no future.
Yeah, we're way off.
Engine's rubbish.
I'm not doing another GP2 engineer.
Oh, it's Honda as well.
Yeah, it is.
It's Honda.
It's so crazy, isn't it?
And Honda could do amazing things
or they could have some teething issues.
And I know for a fact,
Fernanda will not have the patience
to stick around for a handful of years
as it enters his 50s to try and
round the world championship.
So that's my crazy prediction.
Yeah, Fernanda was not on the grid next year
and the Aston are one of the slowest teams.
Let's go to our Patreon prediction.
So as we saw last year,
if you're part of the P1 Patreon,
then you get lots of benefits,
ad-free listening.
You get to be part of the Discord.
And one of those things,
as well as lots of other things,
early access to live tickets,
is that on the Discord,
you can submit a prediction
every single race weekend
and we've got some in for the season predictions.
So I have selected mine,
which comes in from Steelhead.
Williams will have a double podium.
That is my Patreon prediction,
which of course has to be slightly crazy sometimes.
And you know who you are, P1 Patrons.
You'll be like, there will be a Grand Prix.
Yeah, right. That's the easiest point ever.
Yeah, because some ones were something like
one of last year's rookies will win a race.
It's like Antony probably
is heavily rumoured to win a race
if Mercedes are good.
So I think it's not that bold.
If it was a negative,
it was literally the opposite of that.
That would maybe be a little bit more of a bold one.
Maybe we have to be our P1 bold Patreon.
Anyway, you get the drift.
Okay, interesting.
I am going to change mine
because I'll just tell you what it was,
but I've enjoyed the fact
that we've always gone different to each other.
Because Tony Soprano's was Adrian Newey results
in no notable on-track improvement from Aston Martin,
and it's too similar to your crazy one.
How do you measure that?
Yeah, exactly.
So I will go for Formula Thomas
who has gone for this one.
Is this just you?
No.
Actually, as I read this out,
you'll think it's even more me.
Charlotte Clair leaves Ferrari,
announced that he's leaving Ferrari during the season.
During the season?
As in, it's announced that he's leaving during the season.
Not that he...
He leaves.
It's not a mid-season.
It's not a mid-season swap.
That's not going to happen, is it?
But he goes to Haas to see if the Ferrari engine
is better there.
I've just picked that one on a fly.
I read it straight away
and I didn't even look for it.
Charlotte Clair's slander about his season.
I will sign up to that one.
I've gone all in on the Ferrari...
Again.
Again.
Boring Bellingham.
Back at it once again.
Is it boring?
No.
Well, it's boring to me.
Boring is really dull.
It's really dull for me.
One year.
Why don't you predict Charlotte Clair World Champion?
See how it feels when it comes out your mouth.
Right.
Tommy, let's move on.
Let's go to our family top three, shall we?
Can we do that?
Let's do it.
Okay.
Go on then.
So I am fielding my father.
Okay.
The way I have told.
Should be on the line ready.
But that was about three hours.
Let's drop my phone.
Good.
Three hours ago.
Hello.
Hi, Dad.
Welcome to the P1 Podcast.
2026 Season Predictions.
Happy new year first to all.
Thank you.
You sound like Lewis Hamilton.
It says first and foremost.
Just want to thank the fans.
Thank the best fans.
That's okay, Dad.
So you know...
Well, I've just been talking to your sister
and she's giving me her top three.
I don't want them.
I don't want them.
I didn't ring my sister.
That's how bad it is.
Tell me Alonzo's first.
Ask if Alonzo was first.
And then scrunch him up and pull him out.
Did Georgina mention Fernando Alonzo at any point?
No, she didn't.
No, she didn't.
Okay.
All right.
That's all we need to know.
Right.
Dad, please.
Let's get into your top three,
starting with third position
in the Drivers World Championship.
Top three, Max Verstappen.
Third place for Max Verstappen.
Okay.
All right.
In second place.
Lando Norris.
Lando Norris.
And in first position.
George Russell.
Okay.
George.
Yes.
We've been speaking a lot about Mercedes in this podcast
and you would think that maybe that would be a surprising
lot of sort of left field shot,
but everybody's voting for George Russell
and Mercedes to win it all,
which is which is crazy.
And guess who I went for for World Champion?
Oh, Charles O'Kirk, I reckon.
Yeah.
Well, it was Charles O'Kirk.
I think that was a surprise.
All right.
Thank you so much, Dad.
Oh, no, hold on.
Tommy wants a question.
I want to hear Georgina's top three.
You want Georgina's top three.
And we can compare them and see who wins between two of them.
I love how Tommy's just said,
I've got graces.
Georgina is 26 years old.
Is she 25?
Wait, was it?
20, 25, no, no.
She's 26.
Gee, she's old.
26 years old.
Yeah, she's 26 years old.
And then Tommy's just compared her to Grace,
who is three.
So can we have the top three for Georgina, please?
Do you have them?
Georgina.
In third place.
I remember, third.
It was Max for Stefan.
Okay, second.
Second was Oscar, I believe.
Same as you then?
No, he went for Lando.
No, I went for Lando.
Oh, sorry.
Yeah, and then first.
And she went for Lando to win.
Did she?
Wow.
Lando again, wow.
Wow.
Okay, McLaren.
I mean, cool.
Because Lando got the best weight she was talking about.
She just read the results from last year and went,
yeah, that'll be it.
She's talking about anybody.
Yeah, she's got about four drivers in her roster.
So, right.
Thank you so much, Dad.
Appreciate it.
Love you, bye.
Okay, there we go.
I'm going to give my dad a call.
I just remembered that it was these predictions last year
where you called your mum and then I called my mum
to find out who's the world champion.
That's how the family top three was born,
where everyone loved it.
And then we're like, let's carry it on.
So it's got to be Dad versus Dad this year, so.
The brawl.
Yes, here we go.
I'm going to give my dad a call.
What name will he call me this week?
I can't wait for Alex Albin, world champion.
Let's see how boring he's feeling in 2026.
Hello.
Hi, Dad.
You are live on the P1 podcast.
Bonjour.
I'm live on the, oh, bonjour, bonjour.
Uh, right.
I'm good.
We've just had Matt's dad's predictions.
So before I tell him what he went for,
I need yours from third, then second, then first.
Do you want my wish list or my reality list?
No, we don't need Alex Albin.
We know Alex Albin would be world champion.
Tommy, stop influencing the vote.
We're going to be Alex and Sainz and Antonelli.
Don't let, don't, go on, go on, go on.
Just what, what do you think?
Third.
Okay, it's going to be Shull, third.
That's not a win, so who cares?
Oh, I take it back.
Go for your delusional one.
No, it's okay.
Yeah, no, that's Charles, third.
Max, second.
Yep.
And George Russell to win.
Wow.
Yeah, George Russell is just like the overwhelming
favorite, which is crazy.
He's not even going to win a race this year now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But no, that's, that's good.
Matt's dad went for Max, third,
Lando, second, George Russell, first.
So, all right.
He did, yeah.
And me and Matt were also going to go for George Russell,
but didn't because we wanted to be different.
Ask him, ask him who he thinks.
Thoughts on what, sorry?
On who I went for.
Oh, guess who Matt went for, for World Champion?
Um, Charles Leclerc.
Yeah, yeah.
Shock.
All right, all right.
That laugh was a little bit too loud.
Speak to you soon, bye.
Yeah, that was more of a cackle laugh, I'll be honest with you.
That was like a, he is fully deranged.
Thank you, Dane Bellingham, for that one.
Okay.
So George Russell, the George Russell hype train is crazy.
Yeah, yeah.
He's not winning at all.
So the only person that won't have read any news
is my three-year-old Grace.
She not?
Is she not into the news?
No, no, not really.
She's not, she's not.
Twitter roomosphere.
No, we don't need, I don't know if you're on that.
Uh, so I, well, initially before we're doing the top three,
I spoke to her and said, who's going to be World Champion?
She said Max Verstappen.
I just need to say that for the context of,
but then I asked her again for a top three,
and this is who she went for.
Who's finishing third in the F1 World Championship?
I said Max Verstappen.
No third, third place, not first, third.
Who's finishing third in the F1 Championship?
Colour Pinto.
Colour Pinto?
Who's finishing second in the World Championship?
Hamilton.
Hamilton, and who's winning the World Championship?
Norris.
Norris?
I was, I was so caught out by that.
I didn't even know she knew Landon Orris's name.
Yeah.
Because she's just got her like six or seven drivers that she knows.
And I don't think she's ever mentioned Landon Orris.
So she's obviously heard the name and she's gone Lando champion.
Lost belief within 15 seconds of Max Verstappen winning.
Yeah, yeah.
And then even saying, I said Max Verstappen.
I mean, I did tell her about, you know, the Pistons
and the engine compression ratio.
And she, and she was just like, uh,
Versus her dad, your chat up through rubbish is actually.
Even I know this.
Well, there we go.
Lots of families and everything else getting involved at the end there.
And I look forward to much more of that over the course of the year
as we bring back our prediction series, of course,
for every race weekend where the family top three will exist.
And that is it.
Predictions locked in.
I'm looking at what I've said.
I want to take almost all of it back.
So that's kind of where we're at.
Tommy, your first final thoughts of the season and of the year.
Just thank you to everyone joining us for another year of P1.
And this has got me very excited for the season.
I can't believe we're going secret testing at the end of the year,
but we've got a lot of car launches,
which of course we're going to cover.
And, yeah, it's, it's, I can't believe how early it is
that we're kind of doing all these things,
but I'm absolutely hyped for it.
And just going through and talking about Formula One again,
it's got me jeed up and excited.
So yeah, looking forward to it.
Hell yeah, me too.
I am fully excited for this one.
Cannot wait to see what this season brings.
Formula One is my only personality trait.
And that is it.
Thank you everybody for tuning in
to the first proper P1 podcast ep of 2026.
Probably about 300 to go as we head through the year.
Can't wait for it.
It's going to be awesome.
We'll see you for the car launches very soon.
Lots of love.
Bye.
Goodbye.
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About this episode
Excitement builds as Matt and Tommy dive into their predictions for the upcoming 2026 Formula One season. With new regulations shaking up the grid, they discuss potential surprises, including Pierre Gasly's prospects with Alpine and Gabriel Bortoletto's anticipated performance with Audi. The duo also engages with fan votes on who might be the season's standout performers, highlighting names like Carlos Sainz and Isaac Hachar. This episode is packed with speculation, humor, and insights into the evolving landscape of F1 as the new season approaches.
Original notes
Seemingly about ten minutes after Lando Norris was crowned the 2025 World Champion, we are BACK!
From our Championship winners to big flops, bold Patreon predictions and new race winners, join us as we unveil our predictions for the biggest set of regulation changes in F1 history!
Sign up to our Patreon! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommy
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