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Reacting to our 2025 F1 season predictions!
Reacting to our 2025 F1 season predictions!
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About this episode
Matt and Tommy dive into their 2025 F1 season predictions, reflecting on surprises like Oliver Bearman's rookie success and disappointments such as Ferrari's winless season. They debate standout rookie performances, team struggles, and the accuracy of their championship forecasts. The hosts also discuss key moments like teammate collisions and lost race seats, while playfully keeping score of their prediction hits and misses. Their lively banter and detailed analysis offer a nostalgic look back at a thrilling and unpredictable F1 season.
Topics:
2025 f1 season predictions
rookie performances
ferrari struggles
team dynamics
driver seat losses
new race winners
constructor championship
world champion forecast
teammate collisions
prediction accuracy
Cars:
Dodge Charger
Transport yourselves back to the beginning of the year, before even pre-season testing... We have, and so we're reacting to our season predictions we made back then! Stay tuned for a few generational selections and some absolutely awful picks...
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Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the P1 Podcast with Matt and Tommy. We are officially
into reacting to predictions territory, which honestly is one of my favorite times of the
year to see just how generationally washed or accurate we are. Because sometimes, just sometimes,
well, in fact, the phrase is a broken clock is right twice a day. And if we do enough predictions,
Tommy, one of them will at least look good. I'm excited for this one.
Exactly. We've done so many predictions this year. And may I add one point separated
in the predictions over the entire season, one point separated in our entire championship table
one as well. It's crazy how we've managed to have epic title battles even through all the
predictions. And maybe it's another one we're about to find out. We are about to find out
who will come out on top of this one who cares unless I win. Now, before we dive into
reflecting on all of these predictions, which it's kind of similar, I guess, to our
predictions pre race for a lot of them like in terms of good surprise, big flop, etc.
And we made these before testing just so that a wheel had been turned. Yeah. Yeah. So it's
mainly on vibes and probably more so on 2024 and the end of that and perhaps where we saw
Formula One going. So yes, we knew nothing in terms of testing and data from that.
So please don't shout at us if we are really wrong. So let's do it.
Good surprise for the season. My good surprise for the season was Oliver Bearman.
Now, halfway through the season, I didn't even have a shout. Didn't even have a remote
bit of possibility that this would come in. However, look at the run of form he had at
the end. As a rookie, he had a spell from Singapore to Las Vegas of points finishes,
five consecutive points finishes as a rookie, 9th, 9th, 4th, 6th and 10th.
Most of any hash driver ever as well. Which is mad. He ended up beating
Esteban Ocon over the season as well, which I backed. Tommy didn't think so.
And I think that absolutely is a point, Tommy.
I agree. I'd love to disagree, but Oli Bearman's been absolutely fantastic.
You look at the start of the season, yeah. He scored a few points, but Ocon got a 5th and 8th
and a 7th and it kind of looked like, wow, it's going to take a lot for Bearman to catch.
But second half of the season, and like you say, that points run,
he was very, very impressive and really did put himself in the debate for rookie of the year.
And also, he started the season quite well. He scored three points,
had three points finishes in the first four and then just went on a run of a bit of a disappointment
for the next five. And then for 11ths after that. And he was just slowly, steadily just building
up a bit of experience and then went on a wonderful run of form as we mentioned. So
there we go. Point locked in. So I also went for a rookie. I went for Kimi Antonelli.
I would love to argue this one. Of course, I think he surprised a lot of people. A lot of people
were like, oh, you know, he's had some good results, but I think the consistency over the season
can't, you know, I can't back this one. He's finished more than half of the points
that George Russell, sorry, less than half of the points that George Russell
achieved. Yes, it would have been a surprise if he'd have, you know,
beaten Lewis Hamilton in the championship, but he was so far off George's tally.
He didn't have the consistency over the season. Of course, the highs were the podiums and things.
But I'd love to argue it, but it's not enough, is it?
No, I mean, I think it was close. But the form that he had from Imola to Spa was retired 18th
retired podium, retired, retired 16th. And it just, yeah, it's that consistency, right?
With Ollie Berman, he scored, you know, a decent amount of points. He's beaten his teammate,
but he's in a hash, whereas Kimmy is in a car that some of the time was the second fastest car,
third fastest car, and George has obviously shown that there was a lot of potential in that car.
George is an unbelievable teammate as well. So like, even if he'd got close to George,
I could have been like, well, George is like one of the best drivers in Formula One, but
he was nowhere near at the end of the day. If it had been like 75 points back, I would have
allowed something, but, you know, he was 169 points back.
And if only titanium dioxide was available at every race of the season, do you want to
hear the finished standings? Because this is crazy, right? So Antonelli's, when it was permitted,
basically finished 4th, 6th, 6th, 11th, 6th, 6th, 3rd,
DNF, 4th, 5th, 13th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, with an average qualified, sorry, an average position
that's in qualifying, 6.8, race average, sorry, that was the race I'm tripping, I'm reading.
Tommy in numbers, everybody. No, it's because someone wrote quality next to it.
Okay, 6.8 in the race, average position, so basically about 7th. His, when it was banned,
he had DNF, 18th, DNF, DNF, 16th, 10th, 16th, 9th, 5th, 15th, which is an average
race position of 15th. It's like, it's crazy how different it is.
I think also as well that the P5 needs to be investigated. I feel like, you know,
Kimmy might have just snuck a bit into his. Yeah, he must have done. Yeah, yeah, put it in his
bag and got through airport security with it. I'm sure he'll share it on a podcast at some
point, he's known for sharing his silly stories. But alas, no point. So 1-0.
1-0, 1-0. So let's see if that continues this way. We go to big flop. Tommy, who did you go for?
I went for Ferrari. I think they had a great season.
This was a generationally good prediction. Like you say, a broken clock is right to
twice a day. And this was one of the best predictions I've ever done. Because my thinking
here was why... I'm trying not to bask in the glory too much there, mate.
Well, I can't too much because I needed Charlotte Cloy in that last race.
Look, Ferrari were joint constructors championship favourites. They needed to look back on now
and go, this wasn't crazy. They'd just missed out on the constructors championship by the
smallest margin. They'd signed Lewis Hamilton to their team. They were not maybe as favourites
as McLaren, but very, very close to the constructors championship favourites going into the season
before testing. Of course, after testing, we knew something wasn't quite right.
Maybe not as good as we thought. Still not this bad to not get a single win all season.
They had a sprint win indeed. But yeah, to not get a win all season to finish
comfortably fourth in the constructors. Yeah, not good for Ferrari. A really,
really poor season. And that's two points as well, by the way.
Fair enough. All right. Well, when we get to constructors champions,
that's not two points. Just so we... No, no, I know that.
But this one as it's a team, it's... I'll allow it. And my big flop was the cheapest
point going, but I'll take it. Jack Dewan. Yeah, can I just say it's also two points
because there's no way I'm scoring the same as you for going for Jack Dewan.
Yeah, that's fair enough. Look, Jack, coming into the season even before testing, we knew
where the odds were stacked against him. You know, could have been a part where he made it
to halfway or three quarters throughout the season. We didn't know fully exactly where
the cutoff was going to be. And it didn't go particularly well. He bookended his rookie
season with retirements. Had a 13th, 15th, 14th and 17th. Didn't manage any points,
sadly. Had quite a few crashes and then lost his seat. So I will be taking the point. I'm sorry,
Jack. It didn't go even remotely well. It's an easy point, but also at the same time.
He could have done really well and made Alpine look quite embarrassed about replacing him.
And we thought Alpine before testing, we're going to be good.
We're going to be good. And had he scored some points at the start of the season,
I'd be there going, well, Franco Colopinta scored zero. But alas,
he of course finished last in the whole championship.
Sorry there, Jack. But I will be taking the point. Thank you very much.
We go to loses race seat. The prediction of whether we thought someone was going to lose a
seat or not. I went for Jack doing, which was correct. And the only driver to lose a race
seat kind of, although there was a swap, that you could have scored extra points, I guess,
if you'd have gone for Lawson losing his race seat, because technically he did in Red Bull.
But yes, I went for doing, which is a singular point.
And I also went for doing again. It was so obvious it was going to happen, sadly, for doing.
People will say that that's a lot of the reason for his form as well. The odds were
always stacked against him. And yeah, that's why. We both went for doing. It was a no-brainer
really sadly for Jack. Absolutely. We now go to a new race winner.
I went for Kimi Antonelli. And he of course did not win. He got a second place, which was his
best result at Brazil was his best result of the year. Another couple of podiums, but yeah,
a win was a stretch. His best race, even after Brazil, he was also great in Canada,
quite close. And maybe I thought, oh, Vegas maybe, you never know. He might have a result there.
Of course, he finished third, which was an inherited podium after the qualifications,
but he qualified too far back. So no rookie win for Antonelli, because of course,
there's kind of a bit of a double, weren't they? Because had he won a race,
I'd have been arguing good surprise as well. Yeah, you really put your eggs in
Antonelli's basket. For me, I went for no new race winner, which was correct.
Indeed. So it was. Yes. You're looking at the grid light. Did Hadja win? I don't remember this,
but it's been a very long season. Yeah, no, no, for sure. No, I was more
scrambling my brain of when Oscar's first race win was. Oh, you won last year, yeah.
Exactly. I just doubted myself for a second. Yeah, of course. We're all good.
Okay, I get a point for that. We are level, I think. No, you're one ahead.
Yeah, you're one ahead. You've scored one for Behrman. I scored one for Behrman.
I scored one for Dewin, which is two. I've scored two for Ferrari.
I'm now ahead. Sorry. Sorry, gosh. I'm the maths guy. Come on.
Yeah. We know that's not true. We know that's not true. Say 2020. Go on. Okay.
Right. Okay, we go to our prediction for Constructor's champion.
Now, I went for Ferrari. I went for Ferrari. How did that go?
Pre-testing, and I said it with my chest. I was fully dialed into the fact that Hamilton
and Leclerc on paper going into this year were the strongest lineup. They had to be.
They were. And then the paper was ripped up and put in the shredder once we went to testing.
And Ferrari finished, let me do some quick maths, to 435 points off the Constructor's championship.
Is that how many minus points you get for this prediction?
Nope. Okay, shut up. Just checking. At least I went for something a bit exciting.
What did you go for, Tommy? So I went for McLaren, which I know,
obvious, but it kind of wasn't because they were... People thought they'd have a good season.
Obviously, my logic was they were going to continue that form. And the thought here was that they were
this was their chance to gain and capitalise while everyone else was thinking maybe a bit more
about next year with the new regulations. They were favourites, but not by any stretch.
Very small. Yeah, it was close between McLaren and Ferrari at this stage. Obviously,
once we saw testing, we knew they were overwhelming favourites.
We did indeed. Well done, Tommy. You score a point and we're now level again
as we head to World Champion. So I went for Max Verstappen. No points.
Two points away. And this would have been a generationally good prediction.
As we mentioned before, after testing, we both went for him for World Champion, of course.
But before, again, I had that same logic that I didn't think they were going to be that great.
I thought McLaren would be strong. What's really annoying about this was,
of course, one gutted that Max didn't win the title. And two, had it come in before testing,
my call of the season, like my prediction of the whole season, was already this,
that McLaren would win the constructors easily. Max pips them to the World Championship and
Ferrari are a flop. I would have called the season perfectly minus the two points.
So, alas, it didn't happen and no points. And the only points you're scoring are Ferrari
being a flop, which makes me really happy indeed. So you went for a lot of logic with Max Verstappen,
my World Champion was Charles Leclerc. Now, this one was obviously a stretch.
Was it though?
They're like a small stretch. This was like a, if Ferrari can build on a quite strong 2024,
like, of course, Ferrari were in the hunt for the constructors World Championship.
But once again, similar to how we were speaking about this year and there were moments,
McLaren were opening the door for this to happen. They opened the door last year with
some mistakes, some errors, and we were coming into Abu Dhabi going, how on earth
have Ferrari got a chance of winning the constructors? But Ferrari were reasonably strong.
And I hoped and prayed that they would continue on this path of improvement,
just the small little tweaks here and there. Nope, they changed the entire car
and went backwards. So of course, Charles Leclerc World Champion did not happen.
He finished 100 and 7, 100 and wait, let me do the maths. 100, 200 minus 181 points,
I think I'm, yep, that's a long way. That's a long way. That's got to be a minus point,
surely. Shut up. Stop calling for that. Okay.
No, what I will say is you say it was crazy. I'm going to come to your defense here
and look back at the end of 2024. And obviously, you know, the joke is now you look at it and go,
Ferrari were terrible. Oh my God, like, and you obviously like your backing shall,
you'll always back shall. But the form at the end of the season, Charles Leclerc,
first, second, fifth, first, third, fifth, fourth, second, third, as good as good. I know,
yeah, as good as, you know, you look at Lando's form at the end of the season,
first, fourth, second, sixth, sixth, tenth, first, Max's form at the end of the season,
second, third, sixth, first, fifth, first, sixth. Charlotte Clay was as good as those two at the
end of the season. And yeah, it's not, it's not, it's one of those things you look back on it now
and it's so far off because of what's happened. But it wasn't actually the craziest of predictions.
A lot of people, let's not forget, we went into the season thinking that we were going to have
Max, Oscar, Lando, Charles, Lewis and George all going for the championship. We were like
seven driver championship. This is going to be amazing. It's the closest,
going to be the closest season ever, of course. It should have been, you know,
there was no regulation change. And then McLaren were like, Nope, we're going to make a really,
really good car. And then we're going to turn up half the time. And Ferrari just decided to
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Okay, we'll have long points. We head to crazy prediction.
My crazy prediction for the season. Why was I so aggressive with this?
I said with two races to go, four drivers can still win the title. Why didn't I just say three?
We had not seen a three-way fight since 2010, and you would have allowed it. You would have said
sure, because that would have still been crazy. But my stupid heart said,
Charles Leclerc will be in there as well. And was he F? Ridiculous.
George Russell let you down on that one, didn't he?
He was too far off.
George was out with, what, three races to go, maybe four, technically?
Maybe more.
Goodness. No, it wasn't more than that. I remember we were talking about
George being somewhat in.
Yeah, because if he'd won the final four and everyone at DNF'd, it's still 100 points,
isn't it?
Half a point.
No, it's definitely not.
I went for Aston Martin score less than 50 points, which again was looking an absolute
dream of a prediction at the start. Because, yeah, they kind of
lumped stroll, got a couple of points at the start of the season.
Got more than a couple of points, mate.
Well, yeah, sorry, a couple of points finishes.
But it was more than...
Respect on his name, mate.
But it was more than, exactly, in kind of crazy races. Alonzo, meanwhile,
retired, retired, 11th, 15th, 11th, 15th, 11th retired as Stinker.
And I was like, I've cooked. This is an absolute worldie of a prediction.
And Alonzo turned his fortune around and scored loads of points that he rocketed
his way all the way up to 10th in the championship.
And Lance scored there, he's being my guy as well.
Exactly. I was about to talk to him. I know you're a big Lance Troll fanboy,
but I will talk about it.
It's all about Fernando with you, isn't it?
It's all about Fernando. Oh, Fernando did this.
He only scored 56 points this year, but to be fair, on his own,
ruined your prediction. So that makes me really happy.
Okay, but no points either.
So we are still level as we head to the final prediction of this year,
which was the Patreon prediction.
And mine was from Meenartha.
Hamilton beats Leclerc across the season.
Yeah?
You know, we mentioned minus points.
This might well be.
How many times did Hamilton actually...
Ignoring sprints, sprints don't matter.
All right, let's talk about the main races.
Wow, fanboy.
All right, we can include sprints as well.
I think it's probably still works in my favor.
I know, I know.
But okay, let's do the entire thing then.
Do you want me to just tell you the head to head?
I mean, if you've got the head to head, that's also fine.
I have got the head to head.
The sprint was a draw.
So pretty close, actually, if we're just counting sprints.
Three all.
But we're not just counting sprints.
We're counting the race as well.
And it was 18-3 to Charle Clare.
So it wasn't even close, was it?
And these are obviously...
Because there's more than 21 races in the season,
I'm assuming this is taking away...
The disqualification, which Charle obviously was ahead of him again.
It wasn't good reading for Hamilton.
I can't believe, yeah.
Looking back on it now, I was like,
oh, Hamilton surely is going to have a great year.
He's going to go into it.
Being a bit better.
I thought it would be consistent.
I think this was the thing.
New Charle would be incredibly strong and qualifying,
as was expected.
Because we saw that with Hamilton and George Russell.
Obviously, when we made these predictions,
we just finished 2024.
Hamilton wasn't great in qualifying,
but he was always storming through the field in the race.
He didn't really even do that too much this year.
So no, very wrong prediction.
Not even close.
Mine, and we can deliberate this and talk about it,
was from Katie.
Multiple team-mate collisions from the same team.
All right, multiple is more than one.
And I've got, of course, McLaren,
when they came together in Canada.
And Charle Clare lost his end plate to Lewis Hamilton in China.
Wait, what are you talking about?
What do you mean?
Multiple team-mate collisions from the same team.
Yeah.
Why do you...
Oh, so you're trying to get two points?
No.
What do you mean?
I mean, you've easily got this prediction.
McLaren crashed into each other like three times this season.
It's not even a debate.
I was confused why you even debated it.
Well, no, but you can read this two different ways.
You can read this as multiple team-mate collisions
in terms of from the same team,
or multiple team-mate collisions,
as in you have multiple of different teams
colliding together.
Oh, that's got to be a disqualification
for going for a double meaning question.
No, don't start crying about it.
I just, you know, I was basically...
Okay, I read that as...
I was just haunting there.
It could also be, yeah.
I guess McLaren, of course, yeah, in Singapore.
What was your wording then?
Just for...
Whatever, but you can read this in two different ways.
But what was your wording of it?
I'm not going to talk anymore.
What was your opinion of what you actually were predicting?
That it could be teammates.
I think I'm wrong in the way that I can also see this
in a different way.
The way that I think Katie has done it
is the way that you're thinking about it,
which is multiple team-mate collisions from the same team.
But in my weird brain processing,
I'm also thinking of this as teammates coming together as in,
ah, there was a time when the McLaren's came together,
there was a time when the Ferrari's came together.
Do you know what I mean?
That there's also that way that you could read it.
Out of curiosity then, was there another team-mate collision
apart from McLaren?
I just said Ferrari.
Yeah, the end plate came off from Charlotte Clair's car
because of Hamilton in China.
The smallest one.
I'm trying to think, actually, was there any others?
Yeah, let's go through it,
even though I've scored obviously a huge amount of points there.
Um...
Was there any contact between any of the team-mates?
George Russell and Kimmy Antonelli, did they ever touch?
I don't feel like they did.
Did Albonnan signs come together at all?
Hadjara and Lawson, I'm sorry,
but they must have touched at some point this year.
Like, they have to have done.
Behrman and Ocon.
Boccon, I was reading Ocon as you said Behrman.
Oh, this is off the rails.
And this is off the rails.
Boccon came together?
Boccon, they did.
Boccon, that's their name now.
Boccon, you know, like people put, like, Brangelina.
Boccon.
So, yeah, Boccon did collide.
When did they collide?
Silverstone.
Yeah, they did, didn't they?
They did the synchronized spin.
There you go.
So, you've got it.
You've got it anyway.
That was a lot of fun.
Wow, goodness gracious me.
So, everybody just...
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Well, to be fair, that is the winning point.
So, we had to do a big stewarding decision on it.
Yeah.
She may as well give me two.
And enjoy the money, I hope you're happy.
So, let me change the intro.
This is the biggest championship
after our predictions championship across the year.
So then, so how it rates now
is the predictions championship across the year,
this one, and then the stupid other one
about 20th to 1st, which, you know,
I think has gone out before this,
if I'm not mistaken, I think this one goes out after.
So, no one cares about that one.
What I will just say, though, I know you're trying to...
It is insane how many predictions we've made this season.
I'd love to work it out how many we made during the race.
So, that must be like...
It's got to be easily 200 plus, right?
Because there's 24 races.
There's nearly like...
There's a lot of predictions.
Because we do...
But what do we do?
We do...
We do surprise, we do...
Surprise plot.
We do the top three.
We do quality.
Bowl position.
Then we do our Patreon.
A crazy...
Crazy.
So, it's usually eight, I think.
Eight, and then we have sprints.
And then we have sprints more.
Eight times 24.
That's a lot.
So, yeah.
And then, obviously, there's all these ones.
Then there's the entire championship table prediction.
And if you add them all together,
you...
That's one point separated.
By one point.
That's crazy.
Yeah.
It's crazy, but...
Galligan comes out top.
I love how this year,
this year, the Bellingham competitiveness
has really shone through.
And I can't wait to see what next year brings.
I really can't.
What is really annoying is...
Say, like, I've lost the championship with Max Verstappen.
And I've lost this.
And if Max Verstappen had won the championship,
I would have ended up...
You would have won everything, basically, I think.
Well, maybe.
I don't know.
Maybe.
Would you have won the main...
Would the predictions have changed?
I'm not sure.
This would have obviously changed,
because I had him as world champion.
It's funny, actually.
That's your point.
This probably won't even make the YouTube video,
but it's definitely going to make the audio pod.
So I was chatting to Elle about how I should play
the predictions for Abu Dhabi, right?
And I was saying, like...
Wow.
Tactical.
Yeah.
No, we were just discussing it, right?
I think I'd maybe had even done it, actually.
But we were just reflecting on what I'd gone for.
And I said that we had an additional one,
which was world champion.
And I was like, look, I went for Lando,
and Tommy went for Lando.
And she went, we should have gone for something different,
because you're so far behind that surely you need to gamble.
And had I gone different, we would have tied.
So I'm so glad that I didn't go different.
And yeah, I think, yeah, it was actually...
It was...
Don't worry, we weren't doing tactics beforehand.
It was actually me reflecting after I'd done the predictions.
I just...
The way you said I was speaking to Elle
is like, you sat on a laptop with an Excel spreadsheet,
being like, every scenario.
Also...
I've run the numbers.
Super computer.
Also, I just want to gloat a little bit that in this...
In this set of predictions here...
More.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I know you're really enjoying it.
It's the fact that I've gone for
Charlotte Clair World Champion and Ferrari Constructors Champions
and still beaten you.
Still won.
So, you know, that...
If I actually use my brain, I joke,
because of course we thought Ferrari might have actually been good.
Okay, right.
Well, that was a weird ending.
And what a fun way to end this 2025 F1 season predictions pre-testing.
Tommy, what are your final thoughts, please?
Look well done on the predictions.
Yeah, so maybe tell your face.
I'm so pleased for you.
But it is...
I will...
It's been a really fun season of predictions.
The fact that it's been this close, again,
I don't know how we managed to do it,
particularly with these ones where like...
You know, people joke about us massing the other predictions,
because if we were one point separated
in both the other two ones we did as well,
which are just basically based on what happens in the season.
So, crazy scenes and look forward to doing
this or next season when not only
are we going to do it before testing again,
but it's a completely new regulation
that so it really will be based on vibes.
Yes, yeah, I can't wait for that.
I can't quite work out whether we're as good as each other
or as bad as each other with the fact that we're always so close,
but I'll let everybody decide that and not ourselves.
Right, that is it.
Thank you, everybody.
With a bit more content to come before the end of the year,
reflecting on everything we've ever done.
And yes, we will see you very soon.
What's it like?
Bye.
P1 is a stack production and part of the ACAST creative network.
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