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Reacting to our 2026 driver line-up predictions from 2023
Reacting to our 2026 driver line-up predictions from 2023
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About this episode
Matt and Tommy revisit their 2023 predictions for the 2026 F1 driver line-ups, scoring their accuracy and reflecting on the many surprises and changes in the sport since. They discuss driver moves, unexpected career paths, and team performances, highlighting how unpredictable F1 can be. From Lando Norris staying loyal to McLaren’s rise, to Lewis Hamilton’s shocking move to Ferrari, the hosts analyze their hits and misses with humor and insight. The episode offers a nostalgic and entertaining look at how much has changed in just a few years and the challenges of forecasting the future in Formula One.
Topics:
2026 driver line-up predictions
driver career progressions
team changes and performances
Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari
Lando Norris and McLaren
Formula One unpredictability
driver scouting and hype
prediction scoring system
F1 regulation impacts
reflection on past predictions
If you’ve been on YouTube in the last few weeks, you might have seen our video from 2023 where we predicted all the 2026 driver line-ups. Well, we’ve had so many requests to look back on those *crazy* predictions - so let's do it!
It can’t be understated how much F1 has changed in the last three seasons - which is probably why some of these picks need thorough re-examining…
You can watch our 2023 video right here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zClzwXeS6bE
Please vote for us in the Autosport Awards 2026! https://www.autosport.com/awards-voting/
Sign up to our Patreon! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommy
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Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 Podcast
with Matt and Tommy.
We weren't planning on doing this one until next year.
And then apparently the YouTube algorithm went,
hey everybody, do you wanna watch this?
And the amount of comments we got requesting
for us to react to this were a hell of a lot.
So Tommy, as much as I can kind of feel what's coming,
I'm still looking forward to this.
I am as well.
I know some people will laugh at us, and fair enough.
And yes, we'll joke about how much a lot of this is wrong,
but I'm actually really excited to look back at this
and kind of give reasons to the logic,
explain why these decisions were made.
And I think it's actually gonna be a really fascinating
podcast to see just how much F1 has changed in three years.
Like under three years, if there's logic to this,
and yet it's all over the place.
Sometimes, sometimes.
Let's not try and defend ourselves just yet.
Oh no, it's terrible.
But F1 has changed a lot since 2023.
I think that's the key thing here.
Right, so the way we're gonna do this is
we are of course going to reflect on these predictions
that we made, was it the start of 2023
or the end of 2023?
It was, so we'd had two races basically.
Okay, so we knew a little bit about what was gonna happen
in 2023, but there was a break, wasn't there?
And then we were like, let's make this video.
So what we're gonna do, we're gonna have a points system.
Of course we are, we're gonna gamify this.
So essentially how it's gonna work
is we will get one point if the driver
that we predicted is on the grid.
Doesn't matter if they're on the wrong team.
Two points if we've nailed it,
and it's the correct driver on the grid
and at the correct team.
Very simple rules and obviously zero points
if they're not on the grid.
So yeah, April 2023 is when we made these predictions.
Doesn't feel that long ago,
but my God, watching back that podcast,
I felt like I was a fetus back then
with everything that was, you know,
where we've come to now with how our like setups look
and our microphones and stuff.
It feels like we've recorded it on a tin can.
It does, and I remember also being very ill
during that video, which probably explains
a lot of my predictions.
I wasn't ill and I was still very wrong.
Right, okay, let's get into it.
Let's begin with Williams,
where the 2026 driver lineup is Alex Albon
and Carlos Sainz.
In 2023, I predicted Alex Albon and Frederick Vesti.
Now that one of them's absolutely bang on.
Thank you very much.
I'll be taking those two points.
The other one, Frederick Vesti,
he had a reasonable amount of hype at that point.
You know, he had Mercedes ties
and look, there are some bad predictions in this one.
I don't think this is an insane one
despite the fact Frederick never making it to Formula One.
So look, I'm not too angry at myself for going for this
because we're looking at the hype drivers at the time.
We're looking at who could make it through
and Frederick Vesti was one of them at the time.
He was.
I had Logan Sargent and Frederick Vesti.
So of course, I was also on the Vesti train
which we'll talk about in a bit.
We'll also talk about Logan Sargent.
Didn't work out for him, has to be said.
You know, this was the start of 23
and yeah, it wasn't good for Logie on his debut year,
was it?
He finished way down in the championship
and actually did manage another year somehow.
But onto Vesti, he actually ended that year
that we were predicting, so 23.
He finished that year second in F2.
He's still on the Mercedes radar.
And it's kind of laughable now, but it was a logical step
to think that he would make the step up.
You're looking at drivers of who's doing well in Formula Two
and you think he's got Mercedes backing
and he's doing incredibly well in F2.
He'd just won the feature race in Saudi
after we'd recorded this.
And if you'd have said in kind of, yeah,
that he'd never even got a shot at all,
never mind, you know, at a team
like not even like one odd race or anything,
I think was quite surprising.
So yes, not correct, but I think in a weird way
if you'd have predicted Carlos Sainz in that team
back in 2023, you'd be even more insane
to predict that than any of these two
which is quite a thought, isn't it?
Exactly. The dominoes that has gone on
since we did these predictions are quite crazy to think about.
Imagine how many comments for Slan that we'd have had
if we'd said, I think Carlos Sainz is going to be at Williams.
These were comfortably the worst team by a mile at this point.
This was without good old daddy vowels.
But of course, Vesti is a reserve driver
for Mercedes in F1.
So, you know, he's somewhere, but not on the grid.
Right, that's head to Alfa Tauri
where the 2026 driver lineup is Liam Lawson and Arvid Limblatt.
So, I had gone for
Yuki Sonoda and Iwasa.
And basically, the logic here,
which I said in the video, was Honda
had basically announced they were leaving Red Bull,
the main team.
And there was talk about potentially like
where they're going to go,
because they are going to supply engines in 26,
but at this point, they hadn't signed an Aston Martin deal.
So it was a case of like, well, where they're going to go?
And there was a lot of talk of Alfa Tauri at the time,
racing bulls now being sold.
And my logic here was this would be some kind
of Honda team as such.
And in that, two Japanese drivers, Yuki Sonoda,
as the experienced driver that has been there
for a while.
And Iwasa who was doing well in Formula 2 at this time.
So it made sense in my head.
And on to like the drivers that are actually there.
And just to kind of add a bit of
how crazy Formula One has been since this prediction,
Liam Lawson would have not been
on anyone's radar at this point.
And if you'd have said that one Liam Lawson would come in,
well, Nick De Vries was in at this point.
Which is quite crazy.
Nick De Vries was in at this point, replaced by Ricardo,
was then replaced by Lawson,
who then didn't get the seat next year
and then did get the seat
and then went into Red Bull for two races and then back.
Like what an insane journey he's had.
And at this point, not on radar at all.
Was he on my radar?
No, he was not.
My two drivers for Alfa Tauri, back then,
now racing balls, was Gabrielle Bortoletto and Iyumu Iwasa.
So the first thing I want to do is slap myself in the face
because I was calling him Gabriel.
But at that point, I genuinely said,
He was completely unknown.
I literally said at the time,
I've not really heard of him, but...
Yeah, he's doing well enough for it.
I will take the point because, of course,
he is on the grid in 2026,
not driving for racing balls.
But yeah, Bortoletto was, I think,
yeah, in Formula Three at that point
and he was doing incredibly well.
Of course, he then went to win Formula Two as well
and now he's on the grid in Formula One.
And as for Iwasa, yeah, very similar sort of hype driver
at the time, made a lot of sense
to potentially get that step up.
But alas, it did not happen for Iwasa.
He has had the occasional FP1 outing, hasn't he?
Yeah, yeah.
But has not been on the grid.
So it is 3-0 to me as we head to the next one.
Come on, the Gallagher.
We go to Audi, Niko Holkenberg
and Gabriel Bortoletto are the drivers next season.
My prediction was Teo Porchea and Lando Norris.
So look, Porchea, this was, again,
like a couple of races into the Formula One season in 2023.
Porchea ended up winning Formula Two that year
and it's not as simple as getting a promotion
when you win Formula Two.
That's what we found out.
And I think Porchea was genuinely one of those drivers
that was wrong place, wrong time
to not get that opportunity.
As for Lando Norris,
I'll take the point because he's on the grid.
Well, that me.
But McLaren were really quite not great back then
and I think people are forgetting this.
I even said, I think in this podcast back in 2023
that I didn't think McLaren
were gonna be doing very well come 2026.
Yeah, yeah.
But look, this is what happens
when you look back and you reflect.
But for Lando Norris in 2023,
he finished sixth in the standings
and he was 370 points behind Max Verstappen in 2023,
which of course he did.
I can add some more logic to that,
to your prediction.
That basically, at this point,
McLaren had finished behind Alpine
in the championship before, finished fifth.
Oh, they had the worst start to the season ever.
And Lando's first two results were 17th and 17th.
And that was on pure pace as well, wasn't it?
Yeah, exactly.
Because remember how much we laughed
at the Micka Hackenden prediction
about the fact that they were good.
They were terrible at this point.
And yeah, I think around this time,
we also did a video around Lando Norris.
Where does he go?
He needs to leave McLaren because they're not good enough
and now he's world champion with them, crazy.
Yeah, and obviously you see our predictions
floating around social media
when people laugh at them and whatnot.
But at this point,
we were never saying that Lando was not good enough.
It was always the case of Lando's a great driver
in a team that can't give him the car.
Yeah, well, we said he needed to leave.
That's why, because McLaren weren't giving him the car
to deliver and he was very hyped at that point.
And then he won the world championship.
So, you know, that happened the moment
when McLaren forgiving him the car
that we said he needed in order to do well.
So one point for me for the Audi prediction.
My Audi prediction was Mick Schumacher
and Carlos Sainz.
So interestingly, you're on the board.
You're finally on the board.
I'm finally on the board.
I've got the driver.
So, a couple of things here.
We had the Seidel had actually left McLaren at this point
and a lot of the reasons why I think we went for
Norris and Sainz was potentially a reunion there.
Of course, he hasn't actually ended up there
because so much has changed since then
but we knew Audi would be on the grid.
Mick Schumacher was a rogue pick of just,
I think they're going to get a German driver.
So they got Hülkenberg, so half a point.
No joking.
And Carlos Sainz, there was logic there
because of course at this point,
we didn't know he was without a seat
with the Ferrari news and Lewis Hamilton news.
We thought you'd think that Sainz
would have stayed at Ferrari at this point
without the shock Hamilton move.
We had no idea at this point.
It was an absolute bombshell when it happened.
And my logic here was Carlos Sainz and Audi ties
with his dad and everything, it makes total sense
and of course it did very much almost happen.
He was contemplating it for sure.
It seemed like it was going to be between Audi
and Williams when he made that pick.
It was, yeah, but alas.
But alas not.
Did not go to the place that you had predicted.
It is 4-1 to me as we now head to Haas
where the driver lineup is Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman.
And my lineup, I went for Sergio Perez
and Kimi Antonelli, who was so unknown at the time,
I called him Kimi Antolotti.
Antolotti, and then you said something else
which was wrong, you literally had three attempts
at saying the driver that you'd apparently support.
Okay, so we can laugh at it,
but the fact that I predicted him
to even be in Formula One itself.
In 2023, he was, sorry, 2022,
he was driving in Italian Formula Four.
And at the start of this season,
he was driving the Formula Regional Middle East Championship,
the Formula Regional European Championship
and Italian GT Championship.
So I think the fact that I got him at all in Formula One.
Just call yourself a talent scout, really.
Yeah, exactly.
So I was on the Antolotti hype train
as I called it at this point
and thought that he was gonna make his way to Formula One,
which of course he did.
And Sergio Perez, the thinking there was that
Haas would go for an experienced lineup.
Experience and youth.
I got it right, but so wrong.
Ocon and Bearman, Perez and Antonelli.
Still a couple of points because you of course
got both drivers on the grid,
but not in the right team.
My lineup for Haas was Kevin Magnussen and Arthur Leclerc.
So Kevin Magnussen, look,
I think it was a little bit but rolled the dice
between Holkenberg and Magnussen.
K-Mag was, yeah, just the one that was ousted out
and fairly, I guess, in some ways.
You thought Holkenberg was gonna retire
as a bit older, wasn't he?
Yeah, yeah.
Older driver.
That's what I thought was that Holkenberg
would just be like, cool, I'm off.
But Holkenberg's of course
still been performing very well,
got his podium and things like that.
And yeah, and I thought K-Mag would keep that seat,
but you know, Holkenberg stayed in Formula One
and K-Mag was completely wrong.
As for Arthur Leclerc, I'll be honest,
that I was chatting absolutely out my arse.
That was, right, I'm actually looking at this point, okay?
So in 2022, he was sixth in Formula Three.
Nothing too crazy, but not like,
he wasn't absolutely horrific, okay?
He also, and may I add,
won the Formula Regional Asian Championship
for Mumbai Falcons India Racing.
So I'd obviously been scouting him out there.
Yeah, yeah.
And...
It's like championship manager.
Yeah, at this point, he wasn't like,
I mean, he's not an absolutely horrific driver,
but no, he doesn't deserve to be in Formula One.
No disrespect, Arthur, but like,
he got to FP1 a few times.
I felt like his surname may well carry him
to potentially seat.
It didn't happen.
Formula One has seen many a worse driver come to Formula One
because of said surnames and power and money
and things like that.
So it didn't happen for Arthur,
and I will hold my hands up.
That was a shocking prediction.
But we move on.
It is four, three to Tommy as we go to Alpine.
The driver lineup is Pierre Gasly and Franco Collapinto.
My Alpine lineup was Esteban Ocon and Jo Guan Yu.
So I get a point because Ocon is still on the grid.
Go me.
I love how we're giving out points.
It's literally like a participation point.
Makes us look better than it is, doesn't it?
But we'll take it.
Things can change rapidly and we know that.
There's a lot of rookies on the grid.
Ocon, I thought, would not have
the entire relationship meltdown with Alpine.
I genuinely thought that he would be there
for a lot longer.
That did not happen.
Everything crumbled.
And as for Jo Guan Yu, I saw in my mind's eye
him going back to Renault slash Alpine
in this glorious, refound, rekindled relationship.
But that did not happen.
So Alpine, I had Teopo Che and Jo Guan Yu.
So interestingly enough, we both went for Jo Guan Yu
feeling that Alpine made sense for him to go there.
And Teopo Che, I really did think that, like you,
that he would be in Formula One.
He won Formula Two in 2022.
He had the French connection as well,
which I thought would work great for Alpine.
And if you'd have said after he won F2 in 2022,
and then, sorry, finished second in 22
and won the championship in 23.
If you'd have said by 2025,
he would be doing the European Le Mans series
in an LMP2 car.
This is the thing, like we laugh, but like,
crazy things happen with young drivers.
And you know, Spoiler Alert, Oli Bearman
and Hadja on my list.
Really?
Yeah.
And exactly.
Where am I?
No, no, no.
And you don't know, and I saw something very interesting.
It was an engineer, I think, talking about how like,
there's so many drivers in Formula One where
things align and you go on a different path
and it either works or it doesn't.
And there's so many really capable drivers
that could deliver.
We spoke about Lawson, didn't we?
And how it took Daniel Ricciardo
breaking his hand for him to get an opportunity.
And then he was really hyped
and then he got the opportunity and didn't work out.
But yeah, he's, it's all so much of motorsport,
no disrespect, like talent to do well
and the best talent, cream rises to the top.
But there is so much of right place, right time.
And I think Teopo chair is wrong place, wrong time for him.
And it's a sad story.
I'm sure he probably thinks
had things gone slightly differently.
He'd be in Formula One right now, but it didn't happen.
It's five, three.
Did you want to say anything about Jaguar new?
Just the, yeah, interesting how we both thought it
had the connection with the Renault Academy
and thought he'd be there,
but alas, not on the grid.
Let's head to McLaren, where of course the driver lineup
is Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
So my lineup was Colton Herter and Oscar Piastri.
Now, yes, absolutely insane to look at it now.
Lando has gone like you.
I thought he would go at this point.
We've said it, you know,
McLaren weren't very good at the stage.
He had, Lando was a really strong talent in 21 and 22.
And we thought, you know,
this guy deserves better than this McLaren.
And if you'd said to me
that McLaren would be winning the World Championship in 25,
as you said, you know,
don't see McLaren being very good.
The turnaround, you know,
we've said some like things about McLaren
and laughed at their strategies and things like that,
but they deserve an unbelievable amount of credit
for how they've turned things around.
So at this point, they had just finished
the 2022 season behind Alpine in fifth place.
If you'd have said in three years,
McLaren would be Alpine by 811 points
and win the Constructors' Championship.
That is insane.
So fair play, McLaren.
And the logic here, of course,
Zach Brown was pushing so hard for an American driver
to be in Formula One.
And he wanted it.
And he rated her to,
we know that there's talk of him wanting
an Indy car talent in Formula One.
Look what awards done, of course,
the whole messy stuff with Polo as well.
But there was logic there.
Herta was very, very hyped at this point.
And Oscar, of course, you know,
a rookie at this stage.
And I thought he would stay there
and continue to kind of continue like with McLaren.
And hooray, a point, two points, finally.
Two points, yeah.
Two points for a bang on prediction.
Well done, Tommy.
My McLaren prediction was Sergio Perez and Oscar Piastri.
For Sergio, I did not expect him to be having a season off
and not having a seat in Formula One
between when we made these predictions and now.
I felt that, of course,
that Red Bull relationship would come to an end and it did.
And I thought McLaren would open up their loving arms
for the experienced Sergio Perez, but they did not.
And as for Oscar Piastri, similar to you,
I felt like he'd still be there gaining experience.
I did not think he'd be challenging
for the World Championship in his third season.
That's what he did.
So yeah, a bang on prediction for me as well.
So something finally to write down
and say, yay, we did this.
I can't believe you didn't predict
that Andretti would put a bid into Formula One.
It'd be rejected,
but Cadillac would be allowed on the grid given a place
and then would sign Sergio Perez.
How like, you know, no wheel.
Yeah, absolutely no wheel has been displayed here.
So I get three points for that
because Oscar was bang on and Sergio is on the grid.
It is eight five to me as we head to Ferrari
where the lineup is, of course,
Charlotte Clair and Lewis Hamilton.
And I predicted Pierre Gasly and Carlos Sainz.
Wow, little did 2023,
but no that Lewis Hamilton was going to come along
and Charlotte Clair would still be there.
That is something I was convinced
was not going to be the case.
I felt that Charlotte would have had enough to be fair.
The one thing I was right about
is that Ferrari won't gonna win anything
and that is correct.
We have not won a constructors
or drivers won championships since then,
but I felt like Pierre Gasly at this point,
he was able to show just how good he is
and how he was and is.
And I felt that Ferrari may have snapped him up
as a driver to replace Charlotte Clair,
but he is still there.
And as for Carlos Sainz,
we were correct that he was at Ferrari,
but then obviously he was at Ferrari
at the time that we did these recordings, yeah.
So I was about to say like, wow, we actually did something.
No, of course we didn't, this was 2023.
So Carlos, I felt that he would still be at Ferrari.
I didn't think Lewis Hamilton would come knocking
and if anything, the vacancy would be taken
in the other side of the garage when Charles left,
but instead Carlos is the one to have left
and still get two points
because Gasly and Sainz are on the grid.
Come on!
So my Ferrari prediction was Pierre Gasly
and Alex Alban, crazy.
It's crazy, is it as crazy as Lewis Hamilton joining?
I don't know.
No, absolutely not.
No, we've got used to it now.
We've got used to Hamilton being at Ferrari.
It was the most insane piece of news
we've ever heard in global law history.
And my logic was similar to you that Le Clair,
his contract was actually up at this point
before he announced his new mega contract
for insert year guessing,
which everyone seems to do now, eternity contract.
And yet I went for the fact that he would basically leave.
He'd had enough, Ferrari weren't winning anything
and he moves on, which he hasn't done.
And Carlos would also be the case of he's left
as I obviously put him at Audi.
So you thought Carlos would have got sick of him as well?
Yeah, so I put him at Audi.
And they'd both be sick of Ferrari
and Ferrari would look for drivers that would be strong
and experienced at this point.
And those drivers who have a lot of braces
and were basically left for me to pick
were Gasly and Albin.
So yeah, completely wrong.
But as I say, the fact that Lewis Hamilton
was there is probably more shocking.
That's what's changed a lot of this.
I'm not saying that we would have been any more accurate
at Hamilton State of Mercedes.
Hamilton was the domino that just changed everything
because we laugh at these and fair enough, yeah,
that they are so wrong and it's crazy how much it's changed.
But you look at the grid now
and even looking at the grid now compared
to what it was before, there'd be a lot of names there
that you're just like, you're so wrong.
Like if we predicted it exactly right,
imagine the comments going, Hamilton at Ferrari,
what are you talking about?
Exactly, yeah.
We would have had two years.
Antonelli at 18 year old at Mercedes.
We would have had two years of slander
and then people going, oh, sorry, actually, you're right.
It's actually worth just being wrong the entire time, isn't it?
Yeah, so there you go.
Completely wrong at Ferrari,
but we both get a couple of points
because all of those drivers are still on the grid.
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Mercedes, George Russell and Kimmy Antonelli
are the lineup, Tommy, who did you predict?
I went for George Russell
and Estaban Ocon.
So I didn't go for Antonelli, of course,
because I put him in the house.
So I thought he'd be on the grid.
Didn't expect him to jump into that car as soon as he did.
But thought he'd be on the grid.
But I went for Ocon basically with the idea
that Hamilton would retire at this point.
I'd assume that Hamilton basically decided to retire,
hang up his gloves,
and then Toto would look for an experienced driver
to partner with his team leader, George Russell.
And he's worked with Ocon before.
He was a Mercedes junior.
I even said that, you know,
it's weird to think that Ocon was like
the George Russell of the time
that when Bottas was really struggling,
Ocon was doing amazing things in Force India
and there was quite a lot of narrative around
get Ocon in the Mercedes, it's Hamilton's teammate.
He's really good.
It would be really exciting.
Yeah, that was the logic there.
But of course, Espenocon was at Alpine
and then moved to House.
He did indeed.
My Mercedes prediction was George Russell and Charles Lecler.
George, of course, bang on.
And if we do 2030 driver lineups,
perhaps things will be slightly different at Mercedes
if they are as good as they may well be next year
and Max Verstappen comes knocking.
But so not really much to say about George.
It kind of has played out the way we expected at Mercedes.
Charles Lecler, I had to put him somewhere
and it had to be a top team
because I thought he was gonna leave Ferrari.
He has not left Ferrari.
And instead, I, yeah,
I don't know if I even regret this prediction.
I don't think it's the most insane thing ever.
At this point, we didn't know
just how patient Charles Lecler was.
Now we realize he has the patience of a saint.
That's why he's called Saint Lecler.
And fair play to him.
Well done.
There's three points for both of us
because of course George is bang on
and then Charles and Esteban are still on the grid.
So it's 13-10 to me
with two teams left, Aston Martin,
the driver lineup, Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll.
Of course, my prediction made in April, 2023
was Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll.
Come on, come on.
Come on, come on.
He's got one bang on, one out of 10 teams.
By going for the same thing.
By going for the same thing.
And to be honest,
it's the one time I've actually spoken some wheel.
I said at the time when Aston were doing very well
and they were looking quick
that Fernando was doing a lot of amazing things there.
Why would he leave?
If he's elevating this team into a position
that they haven't been in, why would Fernando leave?
Why would Aston want to break that contract
and that relationship?
However, of course, they've gone backwards since then
but Alonso is staying
because Adrian knew he's joined the team.
So, and of course, Lance Stroll is gonna be there
for the rest of time.
That was kind of a given.
That was the easiest two points anyone's ever had.
But very happy that I got one team correct.
Go me.
So for Aston Martin, I went for Charlotte Claire
and Lance Stroll.
So.
Wow, I mean, that does not make sense in my brain.
Those two together.
Like, can you imagine that?
Those two driving together.
Yeah, just in a Formula One team.
That's interesting because like your Mercedes one,
I could see if looking at,
if Charles would to leave Ferrari
and say, we go into the new regulations
and he basically needs to go somewhere,
I'd back this again, probably, an Aston Martin move
because Alonso will retire at some point.
It's more the dynamic of those two as teammates
just doesn't make sense in my brain.
But obviously, Lance Stroll was,
we got the logic.
We made some crazy predictions,
but we all knew that Lance Stroll would still be there.
Very true.
So in all this, it was of course
that Alonso would retire at this age,
but he's now gonna go into a new regulation,
hopefully with a great car, an Adrian Newey car.
But I thought Leclerc would basically, yeah,
want to move on.
Because this is when we thought Aston
was gonna be a very good team, potentially.
Very good team.
Yeah, yeah, of course, we knew it was gonna be the change.
Interestingly enough, you mentioned about
Charles going to Mercedes.
I just had a look from an article from April 2023,
which would have been just after we did this video.
And it says, Charles Leclerc denies he has been in talks
to replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes.
It's the spotlight brightens
on the Britain's future of Formula One.
Wow.
Hamilton and Mercedes team principal,
Tata Wolff has said a deal will be struck.
That didn't happen.
And report in Italy this week claims
that it was an open secret that Ferrari's Leclerc
was already in talks with the Silver Arrows
about a future move.
So it was being hyped up.
So there was logic there.
And again, I thought we both had the same logic
that Charles would have had enough at Ferrari and move on.
But he's still there and all those wins and championships.
Shut up.
All right, let's move on.
17, 13 to me as we head to the final team, Red Bull Racing.
Of course, there's more teams in 2026,
but we didn't know that at the time.
So we're basing on the 10 teams.
The 2026 lineup, of course, is Max Verstappen and Isaac Hajjar.
And my lineup was Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
The top two in the championship this season.
And yes, if I'd have gone for Isaac Hajjar,
everyone would have gone, who's Isaac Hajjar?
Yeah.
But I went for Max, I thought he'd stay, of course.
This was at the start of the fact
that he'd won the 22 season.
This was, of course, the start of 23.
When he'd only got, this was the year, of course,
where he ended up completely dominating
and going on that amazing run
and winning almost every single race.
Thought he'd stay at Red Bull,
couldn't have predicted the turmoil at Red Bull
that was about to unfold, of course, as well.
It's crazy to think at this stage,
all those people that were still there,
that have now left.
But I thought, Lando Norris,
you had him moving on from McLaren as well,
bit like Charles Leclerc, a great driver,
fed up with his team not delivering,
and that was the logic, and that was the logic here,
that he would move to Red Bull,
he was highly sought after by Red Bull.
Helmut Marco, there's a lot of talk
that Helmut Marco wanted him on board.
And I remember having a lot of in-depth discussions
around this time about Lando Norris and Red Bull,
and would you take never winning a race at McLaren
or going to Red Bull,
where you will have a championship winning car,
but your team makes Max Verstappen, and what do you do?
And that was why I put him there.
And of course, he did stay at McLaren,
and thank goodness he didn't listen to us,
because that was the right decision, well done, Lando.
Exactly, he showed loyalty to the team
and the team was able to perform
a miracle turnaround in performance
in the same set of regulations as well, right?
There's been no change of regulation
since the moment we predicted this.
That's the most insane thing I think.
It's, you know, you can say what you like about
how wrong we were, but it is absolutely insane
that McLaren had started at this point,
had been fifth, two 17th places,
and you'd said fast forward to here,
and they're winning the championship by like 400 points
over anyone else, like Watanair.
Yeah, absolute domination in the constructors.
Yeah, the Lando Red Bull thing did seem very on at the time,
but it didn't happen.
My prediction for the Rebel Racing team
was Max Verstappen and Yuki Sonoda.
Oh my, sorry, it feels actually wrong
that you get more points for a Max Lando lineup
than I do for a Max Yuki,
because of course you cannot on the grid next year,
and Max, of course, in the correct team.
I was a year late.
Wow, it could have been.
Rebel, why did you not commit to Yuki Sonoda
for one more year to make this correct?
Because then I could have said,
I actually got something right with a team that changed.
Of course, Aston Martin, I can only celebrate so much.
But how we got to there is not what I predicted.
It's not like I thought that this Max Yuki thing
would require a million driver swaps
and some ridiculously controversial mid-season things
going on and whatnot,
but yeah, Max and Yuki, I saw it, it happened,
but it's not happening in 2026.
So I just went to look to see what was going on
in Hadja's life at this stage when we predicted him,
and he had just finished fourth
in the Formula Three championship,
and he would finish that F2 season in 14th.
So, okay, well, we should have seen it.
We should have seen it.
I mean, you were scouting Antonelli and Flippin S7,
so yeah, Hadja wouldn't have been that much of a rogue.
Rogue pick for you, so there you go.
All right, so the final scores, 19 to me,
and 16 to Tommy, he wins another one,
get in there, and also the one you did win,
I've seen in the comments, absolutely rocks.
It was actually a draw for the, which one was it?
The, what was it?
I'm trying to remember now, I've done so many predictions.
So many predictions.
It was the one.
Why have I just blanked?
It was the entire championship table.
The entire championship table, yes, yes, there you go.
We got there in the end.
You can tell it's the end of the year.
Yeah, yeah.
My brains have switched off of how to do a podcast,
but hopefully you enjoyed us reflecting this on this.
We certainly did, ridiculously inaccurate, some of them.
You know what I'm really annoyed about?
Cause obviously all the points we got,
if I'm not mistaken, are for the drivers
that stayed in their team.
The amount of changes we did, just one right,
where we were like, oh, Colour Science did go to Audi,
or Pierre Gasly did go to Ferrari.
We would have fed off that prediction for generations
and shared the social clip a million times,
and we did not get one.
Did we not get one?
No, not one.
One movement.
One movement.
Oh no.
Yeah.
Why would you say that at the end of the podcast?
Why don't we end on the positive
that I got Aston Martin, right?
Look, I can, I can, I'll just,
I'll just dine on the Kimmy Anthony thing.
You'll dine on that.
I'll dine on Aston Martin
and getting Red Bull right, but in the wrong year.
And there you go.
That just shows Formula One's very hard to predict.
And when people start going, oh, man, Tommy,
because this is what people did back in 2023.
Oh, you can tell there's a four-week break of F1
in the middle of a 2023 season
when you're doing 2026 driver lineups.
Well, when we do it in 2026 for 2074,
don't complain because it makes for great content
when we react to it.
Can I throw, before we go,
I actually just need to find this.
What are you finding?
I'm sorry, I'm going to throw Will Buxton
under the bus now to show, to show.
Anywhere should he come out?
Yeah, exactly.
To show you how difficult it is
to predict something from so far away.
So, end of 21, Buxton did something similar,
said I'm going to predict the 2025 grid.
So we can see, I'm going to read through his now
and we can compare.
Red Bull, Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
Interesting.
Tommy's like, absolutely, I love that.
Yeah, exactly.
That's why I went for so.
Ferrari, Charlecler, Carlos Sainz.
Mercedes, George Russell and Daniel Riccardo.
None of us went for Daniel Riccardo.
No, we didn't go for Daniel Riccardo.
McLaren, Patoa Ward and Pierre Gasly.
Okay.
Aston Martin, Nick DeVries and Liam Lawson.
Alpine, Ocon and Theo Porcher.
Alpha Tauri, Dennis Hauger and Arvid Limblad.
Oh, he got one.
Wow, he got the Arvid.
That's a banger.
Williams, Jamie Chadwick and Kimmy Antonelli.
A fellow Antonelli scout.
Alfa Romeo, Mick Schumacher and Arthur Leclercler.
And this was in 2021 as well, you said.
So this was further back.
So Will has cooked on a couple of these.
And Has, Kyle Kirkwood and Zane Maloney.
Okay.
So there we go.
All right, well, there you go.
So it's tough to find, as we say,
like the F3, the F2 drivers.
But he got a couple of bangers but we didn't get
any bangers, sorry.
That did not.
We're gonna have to keep doing this.
Yeah, there you go.
All right, well, thank you everybody for tuning in.
It has been a pleasure to bring you our washed predictions.
I hope you've enjoyed them.
Tommy, what are your final thoughts?
Final thoughts are just happy new year.
And obviously it's a nice way to reflect on 26
and be excited for it.
And yeah, I'm excited for it.
So bring it on.
New Formula One, the regulation video
has got me very excited for a new season.
I can't wait for it.
Hell yeah, can't wait for it.
I hope everybody's enjoying time with their families.
And yes, have an amazing new year.
Should we not do other content, but we might do.
I don't know what's going on really anymore.
But alas, we will still be there
and we'll see you soon.
There's still hope.
You know, when Teopo chair announces
that he's going to Audi and we've actually cooked,
after all, Arthur Leclerc to house.
Yeah, there's still time.
You never know.
I still believe you never know with contracts.
They can be ripped up.
Bye everybody.
Goodbye.
P1 is a stack production
and part of the ACAST created network.
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