Tesla delivery estimate, FSD v14, Lucid Gravity, and more

And we are live for a new episode of The Electric Podcasts.

I am Fred Lambert, your host, and as usual, I'm joined by Seth Wintra.

How you doing, Seth?

I'm a little jet lag.

Yeah, we're going to talk about why that is the case in just a second.

But first of all, I want to do a quick thank you to today's episode sponsor, Climate

Exchange, a non-partisan, non-profit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate

policies.

The non-profit just kick off its 10th annual EV Raffle, where participants have multiple

opportunities to win their dream EV model.

Visit carbonraffle.org slash electric, carbonraffle.org slash electric to learn more.

We also have a link in the show notes, and we're going to talk a little bit more

about them mid-show.

But yeah, Seth is a little jet lag because he just came back from San Diego, where he

checked out the Silverado EV Trail Boss.

So first of all, I know your article is not out yet and everything, but can you give

us a little bit of first impressions?

Yeah, I got back on the red eye last night, so I haven't really had much time to write.

But it's a Silverado.

It's got that really big 205 kilowatt-hour battery, absurd range in the 450s.

We had actually got a chance to tow a Polaris, which is also a big vehicle around town.

And you almost forget that it's towing.

It's just so good at adjusting for the extra weight.

So I wouldn't say it's better than the GMC Sierra or the Hummer in terms of luxury.

That's just not how Chevy rolls, but it does have some nice additions to it.

It's kind of a specced out version.

I don't have the price in front of me, but it's a little bit higher than the other

ones.

To take it off-roading, I hate to get down on Chevy, but their off-roading adventures

aren't quite as exotic as Rivian.

So we went on these trails.

We're not as used to making them, too.

There's not a lot of Chevy off-roading vehicles.

Yeah, so we went up.

We were in San Diego.

We went up the mountains.

We went on these dirt trails, but we went pretty slow.

We saw some big potholes and wheels got off the ground and the bottom rub, but we didn't

have any speed.

There wasn't any harrowing moments.

But it handled it great and then got back on the road.

We also charged the Tesla Superchargers, which was a first for a non-Tesla or any

event really.

So that was interesting.

The trail bus does not have native DACs, but we used it in an adapter.

Oh, OK.

So the peak rate was limited by the adapter, I assume.

Yeah.

And by the time...

I mean, it was one of those things where they don't really understand that when you

show up at a Supercharger with 86% charge, you're not really going to test it that

well.

Although we did get over 100 kilowatt hours, or sorry, 100 kilowatts.

So it was respectable, for sure.

No.

Just getting over 100 kilowatts at over 80% state of charge, you don't see that in a Tesla,

first of all.

No.

That's pretty good.

And that's the factor, that 205 kilowatt hour battery.

I mean, that's the thing, like Silverado's a great thing, that the mid-gate thing is

awesome if you're carrying big kayaks and stuff.

But the real game changer is that 205 kilowatt hour battery, just nobody else

has that.

And that's going to be a game changer for some people.

Yeah.

If you need the capacity, you have it, which is not the case in virtually all of their

vehicles.

Especially if you're towing, right?

Yeah.

Towing and kind of hard work.

All right.

We're going to talk...

We're going to start a little bit with some Tesla stuff that we're going to preview

the delivery result that's going to come out next week.

But then we're going to talk a little bit policies that Tesla is company about.

V14, FSDV14 is apparently coming as soon as next week.

And then Lucid Gravity, we have some good news on that front.

Some financing news.

And then as usual, as we often do in the hand on some China news, a lot of Chinese

EVs coming.

And yeah, at the end, we're going to have some time to talk to you guys.

So if you guys have any questions for us, you can put them in the comments section

right now.

We're going to get to it at the end of the show.

All right.

Let's start with...

This week I posted with the headline, Tesla is having its first and probably

last good quarter in a while.

And when I say first good quarter in a while, first relative to the recent performance

because it's still not a stellar quarter or anything like that, probably going to

be around the record Q3, I would assume, but nothing blowing out of the water.

So a lot of analysts this week have updated their expectation.

And now the range is between 430, 480.

But that was earlier this week.

And now I'm seeing even some people going 490,000 vehicles delivered in Q3.

And most of the analysts that are consistently on the accurate side are on the higher range.

So by the time everything is said is done early next week, when the quarter ends, I would

assume that we're going to see Tesla, their consensus from Tesla analysts being around

480, 490,000 vehicle delivered.

And if you compare it to the same period last year, Q3 2024, Tesla was at 463,000 deliveries.

So it would be up year over year, which as you can see from these charts here with the

green tower being 2025, it would break the pretty clear trend going down quarter over

quarter for the last three years.

Tesla has been going up in the second half of the year.

But this time it's not a seasonal situation.

It's obviously because the US market is seeing a ton of the men being pulled forward into

Q3 because of the end of tax credit.

We've been talking about that nonstop for the last three months.

Because if you look at the current situation in the different markets, the US is obviously

the most opaque one, everything, but why people are so optimistic about the quarter in

the US, obviously, because of the situation itself.

But if you look at the data of trying to get some harder data on this, the inventory

situation for Tesla right now in the US is extremely low, especially for Model 3,

Model Y, Model S and X, there's still plenty of availability, Cybertruck won't have too

much difficulty finding ones, but 3 and Y are where the volume at and the inventory

is very low.

It's good for Tesla, obviously, especially considering that Tesla had it.

That's globally not US only, but over 50,000 units in the first half of the year.

So that was Tesla's problem.

And now they're able to work through that a lot, again, in the US.

In Europe, it's not going well, Q3 is down based on the daily registration countries.

So that's like Norway, UK, a few other countries.

Tesla is down 5,000 units in the quarter year over a year, so it's still down quite a bit.

And we have some European numbers coming from August.

We don't have the full September just yet, but like Norway, we have September and

a few others.

And then in China, the biggest market for Tesla, Tesla is still down 24,000 units

year over year so far this year.

And Q3 is also in decline by, I think it was 6,000 units last time I checked.

Tesla is basically down everywhere except the US and a few smaller markets like

South Korea, Turkey, even though Turkey was also for an incentive reason that is going away.

So yeah, it's going to be a good quarter for Tesla.

But the problem is like it's going to be probably the last because

all other markets, again, I said the few ones that I mentioned,

are going badly and there's nothing changing on that front.

It's the trend that's continuing.

While the US, it's the clear reason is the end of tax credit, which is going to be,

which is going to start hurting in Q4.

Now the thing that we discussed the last few months that have been good for Tesla

is the IRS has given the kind of electric automakers a little bit of slack

where if you have a binding order with a non-refundable deposit by September 30 yet,

you can take delivery after September 30.

The weird part that we discussed when the rule change was made is that there's no

actual date for the delivery.

There's no actual deadline.

So like for example, Rivian could take or to deposit non-refundable deposit

with binding contracts and technically the customer will still get the tax credit

even if they deliver like next year.

But that would be stretching it like crazy and I wouldn't recommend that obviously.

But Tesla and Lucid, a few of the automakers have utilized that IRS rule change.

That said, there's no new order starting September.

So I think that will still have a big impact on Q4 just a little bit less or so than previously stated.

Now it will also result in some 2026 that meant being pulled forward because of that.

So some people that are locked in on this but are not ready to take delivery will

still place the order.

So that's something to consider.

But then you look at Europe, decline is still going.

You look at China, China, it looks like a slow squeeze for Tesla.

Like the deliveries are going down slowly and I think that will continue

because just ramp up in competition is absolutely insane in China.

Also, we've confirmed basically this week that the crazy report about the Molo YL

that Tesla launched a few weeks ago and was supposedly had over 100,000

reservations for it and everything.

The deliveries are starting from the last three weeks and they actually

gone down in the last week which would point and Tesla is taking

new orders for delivery in November.

So obviously those reports were completely false as we expected.

Yeah, we have the association of automakers in Europe that released

the August numbers.

So we have the official longest numbers and we have even Elon Musk that commented on them.

We've talked about how Elon like straight up lied about the European

situation a few months ago where he said that they're not seeing any

material change.

He said that everything is going bad in Europe.

So it's not just Tesla.

Well, we see that the continued decline is happening in August.

However, a little less so.

Instead of being down the usual 30 to 40%, if you take Europe, the EU,

FTA and the UK together, this was down 22.5% in August.

So now it's down 32.6% year over year.

So still pretty bad but not as bad as what we saw this year.

Where Elon decided to comment on this and I really don't know why

you decided to go there because there's no way to make Tesla look good

even though he tries his best here.

Routers came out with an article saying that BYD outsold Tesla in the EU,

which is the important word here.

For a second month, we reported on that last month,

still in this return to sales growth and everything.

Elon said Routers misled constantly, agreeing with another Tesla influencer

here on XAJ who tried to defend Tesla saying that Routers is mistaken

saying that BYD outsold Tesla in the EU last month.

Tesla did, was outsold by BYD in the EU but in the European Union.

So if Routers would have said Europe, they would have been wrong.

But they said EU and indeed put the numbers somewhere here.

Indeed BYD sold 9,130 units last month in the EU compared to Tesla 8,220 units.

So almost 1,000 units difference is it's when you add EFTTA,

which is Iceland, Leicestershire, Norway and Switzerland,

and the UK that Tesla now outsells BYD 14,831 to 11,455.

But the thing is, even if you take this EFTTA plus UK numbers,

which is the one that I use by the way with my 22% in New York,

because I think it's a bigger number, it's more useful.

Tesla was down 22% while BYD was up 215%.

And now year-to-year BYD in those markets is up 280% versus Tesla being down 30%.

So I don't know why Elon would even want to go there.

BYD is obviously eating Tesla's lunch in Europe right now.

And there's no stop inside.

I would even at this pace, it wouldn't be surprising if BYD outsells Tesla for the whole year

in the EU, EFTTA and the UK.

So that's the situation.

And my main point about this situation in Europe has always been,

I don't know why Elon is trying to,

I mean, I know why he's trying to side this issue as not being important

and people being misleading about it because obviously he doesn't want to address it.

But it should be addressed because it is important.

Because when you have the world's largest electric automaker being down new over a year,

when BVs are surging right now in Europe, they're up 30% new over a year, which is huge.

So you have a surging market, you would think that the market leader,

which was Tesla until last year, would also see a positive impact from that.

But we are not seeing that.

So that's super worrying.

But it's being completely in yard, which we've been called Tesla Eater is a lot of electric.

But I'm not trying to eat on Tesla Eater.

I'm just, this is an issue.

It's important data that the company should take into account

and apply to their strategy to, you know, cells are going down.

And when, if our views are going down on electric, we're like, all right, what's happening?

Like, should we, are we doing something wrong?

Like, what is affecting that?

And you're trying to address it.

But if you're like, no, no, no, nothing is happening.

Like, then nothing's going to happen and it's not going to get better.

So it's like, we're not trying to hate on Tesla.

We're trying to see this is a real problem and it should be addressed.

And obviously, if you do a root cause analysis of the issue, this is an aging lineup.

Competition is trying, is being a lot more attractive to the market right now.

Elon Musk has greatly affected the brand.

But I think even more than that, I think Elon has shifted this towards autonomous driving

and robotic leaving a lot less resources and effort towards the EV lineup,

which is resulting in this aging lineup that people are just not as attracted to.

Did that make sense?

We still have nine by coins saying FUD live.

How is that fear that we're trying to spread?

Well, I mean, kind of is like, this should fear this situation.

Uncertainty.

What is it fear?

Uncertainly.

It's basically just something when you don't have a counterargument for something,

you say, I bend the word on my Twitter.

I don't see any post that I have FUDs because it's such a lazy,

like intellectually lazy word to use.

I'm ashamed that I ever used it in the past.

In the US, we have Tesla that pronounced itself for the first time on the new AP rules that

the Trump administration is rolling back.

So the new AP policy now will allow automakers to produce more vehicles that are polluting.

And Tesla raised its hand and said, no, we're against that.

You shouldn't do that.

So I think it's pretty interesting within the contrast that Trump has ran on that.

Clearly it was electric vehicle start shutting down the EV mandate.

Well, even though it wasn't really a real EV mandate,

but anything that was pro-electric vehicle shutting down,

it was clear throughout his campaign.

You have to get in that.

It was one of the things politicians often say things during the campaign,

like, I'm going to hand wars and all that and then they don't do it when they can empower.

That's one of the campaign promises that Trump has delivered on.

Yeah.

And so it's not too surprising to see Tesla now being against it.

What's more surprising is that Tesla CEO was behind him when he was making these

comments and he still gave him like $200 million to make it happen.

So that's a little bit more concerning.

But I think we saw Elon.

Elon is actually on the record being pro-removing the EV tax credit.

However, he has not said anything about the EPA rules.

So that's interesting.

This is one of the things that where Tesla, it shows that Tesla is very much under the control

of Elon and they are aligned politically or policies wise, I should say, on that front,

where Tesla has not made so much of a complaint about the tax credit going away.

Probably because mid to long term, it doesn't affect Tesla negatively too much

because Tesla is still somewhat profitable.

It's going to break even maybe without the tax credit in the U.S.

While other automakers are going to struggle a lot or even give up on their EV plans for the legacy

automakers that have an ICE business to fall into.

But so long term Tesla will probably knock off some of the competition with that in the U.S.

Again, it's a problem because it's just in the U.S. and not happening elsewhere.

But the EPA rule is different because the EPA rule has forced the other automakers to go

electric and to also pay penalties, pay fines if they don't do it.

And they can counter that by going with Tesla buying some credit from Tesla directly,

which has a surplus of it because of only producing zero emission vehicles.

And that has been a zero outflow of money from competition into Tesla.

So that has been very positive for Tesla over the years.

And removing that is going to hurt Tesla a lot.

And Elon has been quiet about that even though it was clearly Trump's plan when he backed him.

And now it's happening right now.

And also said, I've seen that while doing my research on this that

the Trump administration, which is federal obviously,

has been somewhat successful now at squashing the car and dates,

especially the one for the semi trucks.

The car officially today removed their mandate for semi trucks

because it was officially non-unfirstable federally.

Yeah, it's a big mess.

Yeah, so in the last few weeks and in the coming weeks right now,

we're going to see all of those anti-EV initiative from the federal government taking place.

Tax rate goes away next week. EPM mandates removed,

affecting the car, the California's goal to do their own thing basically.

Even California has given up on its plan to

compensate for the removal of the EV tax created federally.

Yeah, I don't know if you saw that.

Gavin Newsom called out Mary Barra for that one.

Yeah, I thought that was interesting.

Yeah, everything is in place. It's working now.

It's pretty sad because I just saw the numbers, the estimates now for Q3.

And Q3, we've been saying was going to be a great quarter for EVs in the US

because of the demanding pull forward.

But even then, even with the crazy good diamond,

which is going to be temporary and then go down,

barely broke 10% EVs in the market share or at least it's looking like that.

Obviously, September, the data is not completely clear yet,

and it's going to be the biggest month.

But it looks like it's going to go from 8% to 10%,

which is a big jump for a big market like the US.

But Europe is already at over 15%.

Norway is at 100%.

China is at 30% EVs, over 50%.

Now, if you take the HEVs into account, it's not...

We're basically in the third world.

In the future of ground transportation, which is EVs, it is third world.

It makes no sense.

I'm sure you have some third world countries that have super low passenger vehicle cells

that BYD has got into.

Yeah, BYD is like heading into Costa Rica and there you go.

So within a few years, it's going to be over 10% and surpass the US.

It makes no sense.

The US is going to be left behind so much.

People don't understand the impact of that,

but it's like all the American automakers are going to be so far behind

because they don't have a domestic market to push them to make electric vehicles.

And then they're not going to compete on the world stage.

We're seeing it in Europe where the Chinese automakers are growing like crazy

with 25% tariffs.

Well, 15% to 25%, but some of them have some exemption.

But still, it's massive.

But there's something that's going to save Tesla and that's autonomy.

Elon has fed the house on it.

But the last year, if you're a FSD owner like myself,

whether it was a hardware 3, or a hardware 4, it hasn't been really exciting

because Tesla hasn't had a major FSD update since late last year.

FSD V13, if you're on all the way to 4, V12, if you're on all the way to 3.

And that has been blamed on Tesla Foxing and its little robot taxi project in Austin.

All the effort from the FSD team has been on that instead of the consumer product.

But the way that Elon has been calming everyone down, we've paid up to $15,000 for that product

and you're not delivering what you promised is that we're going to have a big update coming

with everything we learned from RoboTaxi being rolled into FSD V14 update.

And he said it was coming late September.

And it sounds like it will be.

He said this week, version 14.0 goes into early, wide release next week.

Then 14.1 about two weeks later.

And finally, 14.2.

The car will almost, will feel almost like it's Sen-Sien being by 14.2.

Probably starting by 14.2, I think he meant.

I'm going to go on the record saying that it will not feel like a Sen-Tien being at 14.2.

Well, that's a while.

That's it.

No, Sen-Sien is the new mind blowing.

That's what's happening there.

He called it, that's twice now that he called the next update Sen-Tien.

He referred to V13 as being feeling alive.

So, you know, Elon said back, like V11 and V12, it was mind blowing.

He kept saying every with every new point update, not just the bigger updates,

that it was mind blowing.

Now people started laughing at him about that.

And now he switched to Sen-Sien.

That's the new big hyperbole that he's using now.

Look, I'm going to make a prediction and it's speculation.

Okay, but I feel like I'm entitled to speculating because this CEO keeps

speculating about when unsupervised autonomy is going to come and he keeps getting it wrong.

So I'm going to make a speculation that makes a lot more sense.

And that's, I can see easily V13 coming with a 2 to 3x improvement in miles between critical

risk engagement, which is a big deal, big improvement.

But based on the data we have right now, this is roughly at 400.

It peaked at 500 earlier in the year, but then it kept going down and kept seeing regression

and regression with the latest data.

Well, now we have over 100,000 miles, close to 100,000 miles on V14, sorry, V13,

and it has regressed to roughly around 400 miles between critical risk disengagement.

You double that, 800, you triple it, 1200.

So I can see between 800 and 1200 miles between disengagement after V14 would be a huge improvement.

However, you cannot deliver unsupervised autonomous driving with that.

It's just, it doesn't make sense.

You need, for a limited service, a robot taxi, like removing the supervisor in the robot taxi,

you need to be closer to 10,000, just to, you know, with a lot of limitations,

you know, geofence and all that because to limit the possible, no, no highways and things

like that to limit the potential incident level crashes and whatnot.

For a consumer, like level five, you can say level four, you may move some of the weather

increment and all that, but let's say level four at a consumer level where you can drive

everywhere, nowhere near that.

You need to be in the hundreds of thousands.

You need to be at 700,000 if you want to be safer than a human driver.

That's the average number of mileage between crashes.

So you're still so far from it.

So importantly, hardware three people, are they going to get version 14, the same version?

No, we're still at 12 and they're already at 13.

No, I think at this point it's very, and we're going to see it with v14,

but I think v14 is going to basically confirm that hardware four is going the same way as

our v3 because we're already seeing the limitation of the v4 with the latest update.

This day is using the boat ships, the one that's supposed to be the redundancy.

Yeah, so you won't have any redundancy on the autonomous driving computer,

so you cannot achieve level four with that.

You need redundancy at level four.

So would you advise people to wait for hardware five or 4.5 or whatever is next?

Yeah, I think there's a real shot at Tesla achieving autonomy with an hardware update.

I just don't see it happening on the current hardware whatsoever.

And then people talk about retrofit, but how much hope you have to have a retrofit on this?

Especially for hardware three, I don't see it at all.

It's been nine months now since Elon Musk has admitted that hardware three won't support

the promise on supervised autonomous driving and we heard nothing.

You want to know why we haven't heard nothing?

Because they don't know.

They don't know when it's going to be solved.

They don't know what hardware it's going to be solved.

So what's the point of doing a retrofit if you don't know?

And that sounds fair, and it would be fair only if he wasn't at the same time

promising on supervised self-driving by the end of the year.

He obviously doesn't know.

That's why he doesn't do the retrofit or doesn't announce some kind of

making it way of making it right for hardware three customers.

But at the same time, he tells you, no, actually, I know.

I know it's going to be anything.

You don't know that thing.

And you didn't know that thing when you said the same thing last year.

Didn't know nothing after that.

That's where things get a little bit more frustrated because at one point,

being too ambitious or not knowing or missing deadline becomes lying.

This is when, obviously, you don't really know.

You're just making wild guess.

And you cannot sell a product on wild guess.

You cannot make production on wild guess.

But you can get a $300 composition package based on wild guesses, though.

Hey, has Green talked about it?

What do we know about hardware five?

Has Green talked about it?

Like, do we know chips, NVIDIA, Jensen?

Yeah, we know the chips.

Now, I'm getting, because we're already talking about hardware six right now.

So I just, I don't want to, on the top of my head, I know.

I think TMS, the Taiwanese one, which one?

TSMC.

TSMC is doing the hardware five, I think, on the nano, the four nanometer, I think one.

And then you have Samsung making the hardware six that they're already working on,

which is the next generation product after that.

And they're building that in Texas, right?

Yeah, I think so.

I think so.

So they secured the capacity in Texas from Samsung really early.

But hardware five, I think now it was supposed to come this year,

and now it's coming next year.

Maybe they skip over hardware five.

Maybe, maybe.

Yeah, I mean, I think you said that like, hardware five, like 10 times the capacity,

hardware four, like at 10 times the capacity of our four, I can, I can, I can start seeing

like a possibility because you 10x, right?

If you, and I know I can, I'm making a number like, I know it's not, you know,

completely, it's not the same, like you don't 10x the compute power of the computer.

And then you 10x the miles between this engagement.

I know it doesn't work like that, but like just as a rough estimate, if you do that,

then you're starting to get, if, if hardware four peaks toward 1000 miles between critical

disengagement, then you start to get into an area where it makes sense a little bit at least.

It's still like pushing it.

And I personally, if I was in charge of a company doing that, I would not be

comfortable selling a product based on that, but it's start to make a little bit more sense.

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All right, one last distant news before we move forward that happened last weekend,

just after the podcast, it's a pretty funny story when kind of viral, especially on our Instagram,

we had like 10 million views on this. You remember I said in 2000, well, it was in 2016,

he made the coast to coast self-driving claims. So in 2016, Elon said that by the end of 2017,

Tesla would be able to do a coast to coast autonomous 100% autonomous drive. He specifically

mentioned from LA to New York. But he said that this is not like theoretical, Tesla will

do it in 2017. They will either live stream it or film it and post it fully on it and all that.

And you could watch Tesla drive itself coast to coast. Now we're in 2025 and he has never done

that. Tesla has never done it. He actually did comment on it a few years ago because

it's one of his promises that people have used to poke at him for missing autonomous

driving deadlines. And he said, oh, we could do it, but we're not going to do it because it would

be fake. It would be like if you do a pre-determined route, you could easily do it. So it's too easy,

we won't do it. Which tells you a lot about this character. But with the latest FSD updates,

you hear a lot of these Tesla shareholders slash influencers, they really believe that

Tesla can do it with the current update. They keep telling you like, I haven't driven

my car in six months. The car drives me itself all the time. It's already there. Autonomous driving

is already there and all that. And it's like, every time we try to shake them out of this

cult mentality, it's like, yeah, maybe it is driving you to work and back and everything,

but it needs to do it consistently for millions of miles to make sense or at least hundreds of

thousands of miles. And two of these, you know, I call them Tesla shareholder influencers,

bearded Tesla and John West or Josh West, not sure his name. Anyway, they set out to replicate

the Coastal Drive. They were like, we'll do it. We can do it ourselves. And said they started in

San Diego and their goal was to go to Jacksonville, Florida. They didn't get out of San Diego County

without crashing the car. And we see dying bags. You call that a crash? Like he broke his battery

pack in a suspension. Are you telling me it's not a crash? And I had the same exact thing happen

to me too. And then all three years back in 2020, I rented them all three on Toro. And

I was driving on, I was driving to Las Vegas, and I ran over an exploded semi truck tire. And

unlike them, I was in traffic. I couldn't go left because there was traffic. I couldn't

go right because I was going into a ditch. I didn't have as much time to react because

literally a big truck just ran over it. So I couldn't see it until the last second. I

pressed the brake to slow the impact, but I still ran over it. And the same thing happened.

You see them right now if you're watching on the screen. Yeah, it's hilarious. You should

try to play the audio because they're like, is that roadkill? Yeah, no, actually, the audio

won't work if I if I do it on the YouTube. But yeah, they see it, especially the guy,

the passenger, see it way ahead of time. And any points at it. And then they let it go

because you know, a lot of these tests and friends are you when you post a test of

crash, they're like, not a test of crash, but a near miss, let's say, where it looks like it's

about to crash. And then the driver take over and avoids the crash. A lot of times you'll

you'll see all these Tesla shareholders in the comments saying that you should have let it go.

It would have reacted in time and everything. And it literally looks like this one because

the driver doesn't seem worried at all doesn't put his hands on the steering wheel

until the very last second when when you realize that the system is not going to do anything.

And maybe thought it was going to be able to drive over it. I don't know. It's not clear,

but it couldn't. It was a piece of metal. And it was just enough that it scraped the bottom

and made the car jump a little bit. You see them having a big reaction right now

on the loop. Yeah, they're lucky. Honestly, they're lucky. It wasn't much worse.

It could have been. Yeah. Yeah, I can tell you it's very bad on the on the vehicle though.

When I did it and it was not metal to it was just giant rubber, but it was exactly the same impact

like you just jumped a little bit. The bumper wasn't wasn't bad on anything. It just the

back the part that's underneath the car between the bumper and the battery that got

broken pretty bad. I had to tape it up and everything, but I still managed to get to

Vegas, get back to LA, give the car back to the zero owner. But then when he brought it to Tesla

and he sent me the bill or they sent my insurer the bill, it was $10,000 in damage may need to the

suspension itself. They also broke their suspension with that. But they said also they had to

replace the battery pack as they kept getting warning messages from from the car.

These Tesla gave them a new batch pack. And I have to assume because this got too much attention

and they didn't want to to them to post like a $20,000 repair bill for that little thing that's

not a crash as some of these Tesla fans are saying in the comments. When you have like $20,000 of

damage is like it's obviously a crash. They crashed into a road. This is a pretty good

example of when Radar or Lidar would have been helpful. Like this kind of looks like a pothole

in the naked eye. I mean, clearly the influencers knew. They were like, what is that?

Yeah, even if it's roadkill, like you want to move aside, like you just yeah, you don't know

you're gonna get carnage all over your car. Yeah, exactly. You don't know how tall it is.

I don't want to if you hit it on the bumper like it's gonna be disgusting.

But yeah, they got 2.5% of the coast to coast trip before, you know, wrecking the vehicle. So

congrats. There you go. 60 miles. Yeah, good 58 miles. I think exactly they got.

All right, we got some good news on Lucid gravity. So there's been a lot of confusion

about the lunch of the gravity deliveries started in April. They were pretty slow at first. And

you know, last month, there was a big report that came out claiming that the Lucid that

delivered only nine gravity in the first six months of production of deliveries. And always

Lucid, you know, back at that, they're like, this doesn't make sense. We've already delivered

hundreds and whatnot. But even hundreds of gravity deliveries in the first few months is not

exactly great. Let's be honest, even though it is an expensive like $80,000 cost vehicle, but

it's not great. Now we have our first clear evidence that Lucid is ramping up gravity

production. We have a new drone flyover that I think happened on Tuesday or Monday

at the factory in Arizona. And I guess, what's it called the factory for

as a grand day, get a grand day. And that's right. So

in the in the video of the drone video, you see, I tried to count them, you know,

it's hard to come in exactly. And I don't want to confuse also, there's some air

and also coming out of the factory, but most of them now looks gravity by far

and counted, you know, easily 800 maybe closer to a thousand. I can hear the audio on this thing. Oh,

yeah. Yeah. Oh, it's bugging out. Okay, now it's gone. So yeah, it's, I know we don't know exactly

how long it took to produce those, but they are getting ready to be shipped. They are on

trucks. There's a bunch of trucks that keep coming. There was about six,

six trucks in the video that was coming to pick up gravities. So it looks like they finally figured

out production and it's they're coming out of the factory in a higher volume now.

I have this, the video is quite long. Some screenshot that you see a lot more of them.

But there's a bunch of different parking lots around the factories and I counted, you know,

between 800 and around a thousand, I would say. That's good news because we've been saying

for a while, but Lucid, you know, even though they prove some incredible technology with the air,

it's a sedan. Sedan don't sell well in North America. You need an SUV and the gravity has been

extremely well received by reviewers or self loved it. Scooter did a review, loved it. I

checked it out in California last month, loved it. I think it's going to be a success. You

just need to ramp up production as soon as possible and it looks like it's finally

happening. Let me, I think my computer is starting to lag right now because I'm

trying to back and it's not working. Sometimes an ad will refresh the page. So you might have to go back

like a few. I think it's the streaming software that's slowing down. Got it. All right. Moving on

from Lucid, we have some news from Tello. Remember Tello said the tiny electric truck that's no

bigger than a mini. They got a new financing round this week and we have even Mark

Tarpening. Now that's a name I haven't heard in a long time that got involved around the,

they raised $20 million, which is not a lot for a vehicle program. Let's be honest,

but they already did a lot without a lot of money because they only raised

$8 million to date. And with the $8 million, they produced a couple of working prototypes

and you'll set up plan for production. And now the thing that with $20 million that they raised

this time, which they raised from Yves Behar, which is a renowned industrial designer and also

one of the confounder of Tello, Mark Tarpening and his new venture firms, Perot Ventures.

T.O.V.C. was involved, E-12 Venture, Neo, Mark Benioff.

Salesforce. Salesforce, yeah. Okay, that's what I knew from. And a few other funds got

involved, raised $20 million. And now with that, they think they can get to production,

which would be extremely impressive. But for those who don't remember Tello,

it's this small little truck here that's no bigger than a mini, but still very utilitarian,

seating five adults in that, a five foot bed with eight feet extension with the folding

mid partition. They have the DC that you can fit the plywood in the back, plywood sheet.

All wheel drive up to 350 miles range. And obviously exceptional inevitability in towns

and cities, because again, it is more in the mini. So very, very impressive stuff.

Like it's not, it's not pretty maybe for truck drivers, but it's something that's,

it's a form factor that's popular in Asia, popular in other parts of the world. And North America

hasn't really embraced that, but there's not really any reason to other than, you know,

policies that help bigger vehicles a lot. That's, you know, created a trend towards bigger

vehicles. I think, I think there's a way, I think there's room for this in the market.

And they proved it with like 12,000 reservation for this. So that's probably helped them raise

the $20 million. And they are making it clear that capital efficiency is head of the game here.

They, they want to, you know, keep very close to their costs and trying to make,

design everything for manufacturability and bring this thing to production with $20 million.

I have my doubts. I think it's going to be extremely difficult to do it,

but it's not impossible. I think, I think it's, you know, it's a possibility that

they can bring this thing to production with $20 million. I would, if they can, I would be like

extremely impressed, obviously. But yeah, it's, I think it's a cool project. I'm glad it's happening.

If they add like $50 million from this round, I think, okay, that's a little bit more

feasible, but if they can do it with 20, it's would be nuts.

Yeah, I wouldn't put all my money on that one.

No, obviously normal for people who don't know, like normally like a very

extremely cheap vehicle program would be like $200 million and that would be extremely cheap.

So 20, it's a 10th of that. But who knows, you know, with AI, with new technologies,

could happen. All right. Xiaomi is dipping its toes in Europe, not with cells just yet, but with

well, I should say Xiaomi vehicles because obviously their personal electronics is in Europe

yet. The setup shop in the EU with an R&D and design center in Germany.

So it's the first time that they are establishing a presence there for their

electric vehicle system. It's going to be for to get access to the German talent, obviously.

And so far it's been very much a Chinese company. But Xiaomi has, you know, loves Germany

a lot. You've seen all they've done with the Nurburgring, the CEO loves Nurburgring and they

keep testing the vehicle there. So it makes sense for them to set up shop there and try to

keep their hands or their mini records that they have set in the country yet.

And it's to preface the obviously the upcoming expansion of the ED business in the EU,

which is supposed to happen in 2027. They are not in the hurry to do that right now,

obviously, because they still have a ton of them in China that they cannot fulfill just yet.

All right, we have one more news item I want to discuss before we get into the comments.

But I see you guys already talking to each other a lot. So if you guys have a question for us,

I would appreciate if you if you put question, then yeah, if you write actually the word question

and then put your question so that we can get to them a little bit easier, because I think it's

going to be hard for set to navigate to all of your talks and whatnot between each other,

which you know, you're allowed to do is just for for us, it makes it a little bit more

difficult. In China, Mercedes just launched the CLA-LEV, a new version of the popular CLA that

they launched last year, I think in Europe. And it starts at 259,000 yen, which is the equivalent

$36,000 with a range of 530 miles, 836 kilometers. That's on the CLTC standard though, but still.

Yeah, I think I find interesting about this. So do they say which partner is making this with them

in China in the article? Okay, they have like a specific partner that they

I feel like. Yeah, I just I cannot remember which one is it's always different. But what I find

interesting to this one is like, if you compare this with the CLA that they produced themselves in

Europe, it's like, this is going half the price. And it's just as good of specs at T2. So I think

I think it's good to highlight the discrepancy between even the same brain name that they sell

in Europe and elsewhere, versus that they want to do in China, but this one they make with the

Chinese partner. It's wow, the difference. So because everything else looks very close to the

CLA that you have another market, you still have the giant hyperscreen system.

You still have same design. Still have crazy range on it. You know, the CLA we praised it earlier

this year for being like super efficient for Mercedes. It's one of the first vehicles that

gets a lot of benefits from the development of the Vision X, X, I think that they called their

test vehicle that's for our hyper efficiency. I think that's pretty cool.

All right, let's try to get to some of these comments if we can.

All right. Speculator was on the first on there. When does the lack of CAFE regulatory

credits start hitting test the financial statements? I mean, that's going to hit soon, right?

Yeah, I think there's going to be partly of it. So the problem with that is that

it depends on how automakers take the situation because a lot of these deals are directly with

automakers and they are over a long period of time. So maybe like, for example, let's say,

Ford, I was already agreed to buy Tesla's credit over the next three years. Now, the thing is

we haven't seen these contracts. So sometimes these contracts will say, if there's a change in the

law, we are allowed to break this contract. I would assume that most automakers, especially

knowing elections are coming in 2024 and everything, would have put that in them. If they didn't,

I think probably some lawyers should get fired or something. So yeah, I would assume that the

impact is going to start to be felt a little bit in Q3, but mostly in Q4 onward.

All right. That's going to be interesting because we don't know how big the impact

is because Tesla doesn't break down regulatory credits per market. They just do the global ones

and we know Tesla gets sums in Europe, but you know, sales have been going down in Europe,

so that means fewer credits there too. There's some in China also, but US is believed to be

around half if not more of Tesla's regulatory credit. So if that is slash, you know, in

the half, it would be a big deal obviously because it's hundreds of millions of dollars

every quarter, true profit. All right. William Pesano says what no one is talking about is how

Elon collects welfare from taxpayers and I'm not just talking about Tesla, SpaceX,

oil, welfare. Yes, Elon and his brother were involved with oil. I'm not sure what that is

specifically. Tesla had SpaceX collect welfare from the federal government, from Texas Governor

and the form of welfare for the power bills. This money goes to oil companies

and what flopped over goes to Elon. I'm not sure. Yeah, I don't know if we want to focus on that.

I'm not sure that's like, there's plenty of things you can criticize Elon on, I think,

like if they take advantage of subsidies to power the facilities in Texas, and I think, you know,

it's just, if it's there, they take it. It's like every company's is doing that, I think.

If you want to criticize Elon, I don't know if you saw that said it just broke

Twitter before we went live, but the Special Senate Committee just released more of the Epstein

emails and agenda and Elon is in them. In 2014, he was, according to those documents,

planning to visit Epstein Island according to the documents. It says in his agenda,

Elon supposed to come this day, 2014. And then in parenthesis, I assume it's like

his assistant to him, I guess, to Epstein. Is it still happening? Because like,

they weren't sure it was still happening. But it would show that they were communication and,

you know, Epstein and Elon were friendly around 2014, which is six years after he pleaded guilty

so this is the thing, prostitution with my minor. So not a great look whether or not you

actually went to the island. Yeah. And I think when there's that picture of him in Maxwell

that was circulating, he said something like she photo bombed him and he had nothing to do with

any of that stuff. Yeah. He distanced himself a lot from Epstein after that. But there's,

you know, there's evidence that there was contacts directly with Epstein. You know,

there's this email that leaked about him, you know, having kung fu classes with Maxwell

between him and Epstein emails. And, and yeah, I mean, it would explain a lot of things. It would

explain why Elon, you know, kid, I mean, fuel late night tweeting said that Trump was in the

file. And then a week later he backs off and it's like I went too far and then he doesn't

mention it and everything. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a little call and he's like, Hey,

you remember you also in the Epstein file.

That's it. That is just such a weird situation over there. I don't quite understand it all.

All right. Flash 357. I guess the Model Y ramp up had nothing to do with the increase in sales,

right? I think that's the most sarcasm. We are a joke, right? We're a joke.

I mean, the Model Y has been ramped up for months. I don't know what you're talking

about. Like the increase in sales in the US is because of the tax rate going away right now.

And in Europe, there's no increase in sales. It's the decline hasn't been as sharp in August

that it was prior months. It's still down 22%. So the idea was that the Model Y will increase

sales overall. Tesla's sales are going to be down in 2025. That's that's a fact. So I don't

know. I understand your point really. Sorry. All right. Apparently Model Y 2026 just had a battery

failure. Bearded Tesla guy on YouTube. We'll check into that. Well, I think that's what he's

talking about. What we talked about earlier, the batch you filled after the crash. Yeah.

Oh, after the crash. Okay. John Baker notes that BYD sells a lot that are not BEVs,

but I don't think we're counting that. No, they sell some PHEVs, but in Europe,

well, I mean, well, well, now they sell more BEVs than PHEVs. And in Europe,

I think it's closer to like 70% BEVs, 30% PHEVs, maybe 60, 40, so not that. But

I think they have two models of PHEVs, maybe three. And then the rest have seven models

of BEVs that they sell in Europe. All right. I'm going to move ahead a little bit.

But I was just talking to William Bassano. It seems like you need to be able to hear, okay.

A lot of chit chat in here. Yeah. I mean, Times is obviously not a fan,

but he's still in the chat. All right. Luckily, we have Ford with new LFP because Ford lost

money on hybrids for 15 years. And now the Ford CEO said hybrids are the most profitable

and Ford is investing in BEV. All right. I'm going to have to just weed through this.

Picked up my real world drive Tesla Model Y last week. Great improvements compared to

the previous generation. Sad to see Tesla struggles. Hopefully they can turn it around.

I would love that. Yeah. You know what's frustrating is like,

you know, I kind of want to get a new Model Y. You know, obviously I have problems with

Elon, but I think for me, a bigger problem is like FSD is something I'm, you know,

I would be transferring. And it doesn't seem like that hardware is going to be long.

Like we're not going to be on that hardware for too long, much longer and it'll be isolated

like three. If Tesla came out with a, you will always have the latest hardware.

If you're buying FSD kind of guarantee, that would be something I would go for.

Yeah. Mark Conwell said, Cornwell says, apart from Elon himself, Tesla's main issue in Europe is tons

of smaller EVs are available that folks are buying and Tesla has nothing smaller than three.

Yeah. That's part of what we've been saying that this is lineup is aging and it's also not

growing with only a cyber truck been added to it in the last five years and that's not even

available in Europe and it wouldn't be successful in Europe anyway. So we, Tesla was supposed

to bring out this year a cheaper, smaller electric vehicle and it would have been a

giant success in Europe, in Asia and you know, probably would have done okay in North America

too. And maybe like would have helped the market go towards smaller vehicles, which,

you know, the North American market needs to, you know, realign itself for a while.

So I think that that's part of the, that's Elon. So it's not apart from Elon himself.

Elon is the one that killed that program. So I think he's part of the, he's the main problem here

still. All right. Moving on. Can we talk more about the 2026 Nissan Leaf hitting the 255

price target before Tesla? I think it's monumental and they deserve a bit more credit

for that. Is that, is that with the, the tech speed or not? I think so. I think the price is 32.

I mean, you know, last year, what 2023 Chevy was selling the Bolt for 265. So it's not,

I don't know. It's great, the lower price vehicles, but let's give it to the Bolt.

We gave it to the Bolt. We gave them the part of the year that year.

All right. And batteries in the new Model Y crap or many video out there and now 2026 are having

problems with batteries. Model three LFP is good. I think you have an LFP in the Model Y too. So

you're saying that the NCM and MC batteries in the higher end Model Y scrap. I haven't seen that

so far yet. All right. Question. Do we have an official bi-directional NAX standard yet,

if not when? Yeah, I mean, it's using the CCS protocol, which has now included a protocol for

bi-directional charging. So Tesla, some automakers that have NAX have bi-directional charging

protocol in them. I think Tesla is just not activating it yet in anything other than a

Cybertruck. But it should, I think, I shouldn't say it should, they've been saying it for a while

that it would be the case and it hasn't been so we don't know what's the old up there. I think it's

a great feature that they should open for people that actually want to use it. If you own the

car, it's your battery pack and you should be able to do whatever you want with it. I

understand the concerns about longevity and all that, but maybe you take into account

in the battery warranty that it's not mileage, but it's just charging. You need to track cycles

instead, maybe, and then it's a solvable problem. All right. Carl and San Diego, can you clarify

when you're saying the EPA rule going away? I understand Carb states have minimum EVs

in a manufacturer fleet and paying for credits when you don't, but that was never EPA rule.

Yeah. I don't remember the exact, what do you call that? Carb is an acronym. I was forgetting

the word in English, even though it's the same in French, almost the same. But it's another rule

that it's on fleet, overall manufacturing fleet emissions for, it's a different set of emissions

that they're doing, but it's basically the same thing at a smaller scale than Carb, obviously.

It's a cafe. I think it's a, I forget the exact acronym, but it's a similar approach, basically,

as Carb is making, but no for state level stuff. The Carb states, California, New York, whatnot.

Move on. Europe has $17,000 EV go that 100 EVs that go 180 miles a range.

It's amazing. Yeah. China's also got some pretty inexpensive EVs that go 200 miles.

Is when you look at how people use their cars, it makes sense. I know that the US is a little

bit different too, because there's a lot more car culture in terms of like you live around your car

and maybe public transport also, depending on your cities in North America, is not as good

as in Europe. So take that into account. But there's still like, there's 330 million people

in the US. There's some people where it wouldn't make sense. It's a big enough market where

makes sense to launch these vehicles there too.

All right. We're going to start skipping over some of this stuff because there's quite a bit.

West Coast Supercars and Classics is sentient. I'm sorry, Dave. I don't want to drive to

Costco. That's on 2001 Space Odyssey. Question. Do we know if the Hyundai LG Battery Factory

is delayed and by how much? Yeah, we talked about it last week. I don't think these

said it is delayed. I don't think they said exactly how long, but I think they just referenced

like a few months, if I remember, at least a few months, which makes sense because they send back

hundreds of workers to Korea. And I don't think a lot of people are raising their hands to

saying, I want to come back anytime soon. Yeah, between that and the H1B visa happening and

all that, I think the US is going to have a lot of issues trying to get the foreign workers in.

All right. This is interesting and something I think about quite a bit. Chevy now, I think

it's just Breitrop. I don't know if it's Chevy Breitrop. They're maybe selling Breitrop at Chevy.

Dealers, 600 built in Ontario. Crazy discount at like $24,000 off and if you use commercial,

the $7,500 tax credit is available with no limits. So, 53K for a box truck with 176 kilowatt

hour battery, which is huge. I think this is an opportunity for the van lifers to find an

electric vehicle. That is a big battery. It's a big vehicle. But it is like, if you look at the actual

Breitrop 600, like the door is like super not aerodynamic. It looks like a delivery truck.

It's not a medic. You go the hair coming in too. Yeah. So in the winter or like when it's

cold, it's not great. Yeah. Frustrating because like, you know, you just hear so many people

talking about like an electric van life vehicle and just nobody will build like something good for

that. Ford has the e-transit and there's some bigger range version. The new e-sprinter is not

bad too. But yeah, I'm out of the way here with that price wise. It's a good deal. It's

a good deal. It's a great deal for 176 kilowatt hour battery. That's huge.

All right. We got a lot from Dimebag talking about how hitting debris on the road is like

scratching your car somehow. It's like, if you scratch your car with a key, is that a crash?

Well, if you hit debris on the road, that is a crash. All right. Anyway,

Fred, I think you were involved in ATV development investment. I bought a Volcon HF1

UTB Crazy Specs China made 17.5 kilowatt hour battery, 100 horsepower. I think those Volcons

are like those really fat tire bicycles. They used, well, that was their first product. Then they

made other things, but I didn't even know they were already shipping those. Are you saying

that you have it? Because that would be cool. I haven't seen them in the wild just yet.

Yeah. I was involved in the company. Well, I was on an advisor at the company,

but there were some issues with it. They went under, but I actually bought them out of bankruptcy

just last month. Now I have basically an EV startup in my garage. We don't have any

clear plans right now with it or anything like that. I have two EVs, electric EVs at my house,

prototypes that are pretty cool. 20 kilowatt hour battery pack, so I got you beaten there on my ATV.

But yeah, I'm playing around with it. I just tested out two of my articles coming out next

week, I think, for the ATV from Can-Am, the BRP. It's much lower power, like nine kilowatt hour

battery pack, I think. But it's a more complete vehicle, a lot more refined. I think they're

going to have a good market for that too. Not a crazy price. I think it's $13,000 US.

So the electric off-roadings, poor power sports, it's happening and it makes so much sense.

I love it so much because all the same benefits you have with road vehicles

are so applied to off-roading, also applies to nature and it's even better because what's better

than enjoying nature? Then zero emissions, zero noise pollution, it just makes so much sense.

All right, question. Does Tesla have any significant new products coming in the next

two to three years? The only thing I know is CyberCab, but FSD doesn't work yet.

I mean, Roadster maybe.

Big maybe? Yeah, big maybe.

So mine, I guess, does that count even though Tesla claims it's been in production since 2022?

First, it claimed only entering production 2022. Now it's like we're entering production 2025,

so I know it's depending on how you see it. But I would count it as a new product.

Then, yeah, CyberCab. CyberCab, I don't know what's going to happen with it obviously because

if it doesn't have a steering wheel, it's not like the other cars with FSD. There's no other

option. So you'd have to have solved unsupervised autonomous driving and Tesla clearly hasn't

solved that yet. And we're going to see where V13 goes. Elon says unsupervised by the end

of the year, I say 800 to 1200 miles of capacity. Dimeback says Rebel Taxi. What is Rebel Taxi?

Rebel Taxi is a Model Y right now. It's not a new product. Unless you mean Rebel Taxi with

CyberCab, but that's the same thing as the specular is saying here. So yeah, I just,

it is a big bummer really, Tesla's product lineup. There's no, I guess, Model YL

expending to the market. That bus thing that. Oh, that Rebel Van. Yeah, I think I'm going to see

the CyberCab before we see Rebel Van, I guess. The strip down Model Y maybe counts as a new,

maybe they're going to name that thing and something else on Model Y. I don't know.

Yeah, we're going to get a new performance Model Y and a Model YL.

But yeah. All right, with the tax credit going away and the use tax credit, any thoughts of

used EV prices in the US will go up, stay stable, et cetera? I think they will go up. I think that's

pretty clear. Every time that the last time that the tax credit went away for Tesla, that's

what happened. And Tesla used market badly needs it right now because it's pretty rough up there.

Yeah, I think it's going to go up. All right, I think that's about the last

go-herit thing here. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, thanks to everyone for participating

to the show this week. We got a lot of comments. We appreciate you. If you did enjoy the show,

please give us a like, a thumbs up, whatever it is on the app you're watching right now

because we're live everywhere. And we're going to see you same time, same place next week.

Have a good one.

Tesla delivery estimate, FSD v14, Lucid Gravity, and more

Chevrolet Silverado EV

Gmc Sierra

Lucid Gravity

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Cybertruck

Tesla Model Y

Tesla Model S

Tesla Semi

BMW E12

Nissan Leaf

Ford Etransit

Tesla Cybercab

Volkswagen Bus

About this episode

Original notes