The Car Market is BROKEN | Episode 918

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It's noon here in Veterinary City, New Jersey and our nation's capital.

Washington, DC.

And this is Car Edge Live for Friday, September 5th.

The Eagles won an O to start the year.

Oh, and your host for today's show, as usual, me, Ray here in Venture City, New Jersey,

and Zach working out of his home office today.

Is that a bike on your wall or is that some type of artwork?

How are you today, handsome?

Honestly, Dad, what a flash from the past for those of you that watched the original

back when we were your auto advocate those days.

I used to have my green Cannondale bike right behind me.

If you go watch the original videos we ever filmed over on the Car Edge channel.

We're back to the basics, baby.

Six years later, we still got the bike behind me.

Today's show, folks, is brought to you by caredge.com.

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That being said, yes.

The lead story this morning, that is the fact that the car market, it is broken.

We have an interesting dealer survey that Cox Automotive ran.

And I think it starts to show some really interesting data points.

I'm going to start here with the second bullet point.

Customer traffic slows sharply after a surge in Q2.

Customer traffic to car dealerships declined significantly in Q3.

The index dropped from 37 to 33 with franchise dealers falling from 50 to 43.

A statistically significant decrease for independent dealers.

The overall traffic score remains weak, shifting directly from 32 to 30 this quarter.

That's at the same exact time, Dad, that we are finally starting to see

the impact of tariffs.

This is new car average trends, actually average listing prices.

It is starting to go a little, I don't know, hyperbolic.

The scale here is influencing that a little bit.

But these are your recent trends in online advertised prices for new cars.

So we have that.

New car prices going up, which you and I seem to talk about every single freaking day.

And then there's new data showing customer traffic starting to decline at dealerships.

I think that's a recipe for broken, correct?

Yeah. And then I think if you add in what's going on with the economy,

and I don't know that the private sector added 22,000 jobs in August.

Yeah. That's a recipe for a broken market because there's more joblessness.

There's less jobs available.

Prices are up.

Interest rates are up.

Traffic's down.

What could be better?

I mean, profitability weakens as costs remain elevated.

That's another thing that'll drive some brokenness in the car market.

Dealer profitability declined in Q3.

So there you go.

As inventory is actually increasing back up and price pressure intensifies,

you just read the bold parts of the bulleted items here,

and it starts to build a pretty compelling case for why things don't look pretty

for the remainder of this year for the car market.

Well, I think when you look at that, and if you're in the business, you say to yourself,

well, everything's kind of sort of stacked against us.

These are not the trends that you want to see in any business.

You don't want to see inventory grow.

You don't want to see foot traffic customers coming in decline.

You don't want to see prices continually going up.

You don't want to see interest rates for financing

those prices that have gone up to also be going up.

And you don't want to see that, well, because there's so much pressure

that you now have to lower your price in an effort to try and sell this.

This is not a recipe for success and growth that most businesses are looking for.

I mean, if you were to pull most businesses, what's important to them?

Well, we want to grow our traffic.

We want to grow our profit margin.

We want it to be inexpensive for people to be able to afford to come in

and buy our stuff if they have to finance it.

And we want as many people as possible to be working and have the capability of affording this stuff.

We're headed down a path with this sentiment that indicates everything that you wish to see

are not any of the things that we're seeing at the moment.

So, yeah, I would suggest that the indicators are not good for a healthy car market.

Maybe they're good for that 15% of the population out there that can buy for the rest of us.

I just agree a little bit, Deb, because I think actually when we say it's not good for the

industry, that typically means it's going to become good for consumers.

Because the more the industry suffers, the more they have to ultimately pull levers

to drive down costs or drive down price to get people to buy cars.

You're the guy who went viral six years ago now for what happens to unsold new cars.

There is no such thing as an unsold new car.

I get that, but I think the problem that exists is that even if they have to pull

the levers of lowering prices at the dealership in order to move the metal.

They are still only going to be appealing to 13 to 15% of potential buyers out there.

The vast majority of people are not and do not feel as if they can participate or be in the

market for a new car at the price points they're at.

Even if there was some type of decline in pricing, we just once again broke the

$50,000 barrier for average asking prices.

Well, in order to get some of the 85% of the population out there interested in buying cars

again, I think you would have to drop the price significantly below $50,000 in order

to get those people to come in.

And what would that magical number be in my mind to get people?

Under $40,000.

Well, they ain't dropping $50,000 vehicles to $40,000 in order to move them.

That we're not going to see.

Maybe they'll drop them to $45,000 and the people who could already afford to buy the car

are going to say to themselves, well, it's too good of a deal to pass up so we'll buy one.

But the rest of us, the absolute rest of us are still sitting on the sidelines because

the prices are too high, regardless of the pressures that they feel.

That being said, there are going to be some opportunities, I think, for those brands

that haven't oversupplied.

We even just looked at most recently, month over, excuse me, year-over-year sales totals.

And really the only brand that excelled beyond belief is Toyota.

We're going to give you a little bit, but I mean, we saw a lot of the Japanese

automakers struggle.

Mazda, for example.

So I do think in a broken car market, the pressure is not on the consumer to step

up and spend more.

The pressure is on the automakers, pressure is on the business.

If you're going to have to sell more, you would not be surprised if Mazda comes

with big incentives, for example, because they need to pick up sale.

Subaru is another example of a manufacturer whose growth has stalled out.

And again, what are they going to do?

They're going to lower the prices.

But I do agree with your broader sentiment that in a lot of ways,

the car market really, really, really is broken when you start to look

at the latest data we have access to.

Well, and I didn't read the article.

I only saw the headline briefly that we're about to...

We've come to an agreement with the Japanese and which will ultimately lower tariffs

on Japanese imported vehicles.

I didn't get to read the article.

I just briefly saw that as a headline.

What that means?

I have no idea.

Is it going to reduce the tariff from 15% to 10%?

I don't know.

But either way, if the tariff is higher than what it was at the start of the year,

then that means prices are going to be more than what they were at the start of the year.

And even that minor help might not be enough for some of these brands

to be able to get back what they've lost in the way of sales

and what they've lost in added costs to bring those vehicles into the country.

Yeah, what they've lost in pricing power.

Let's come here up to the chat and then we're going to switch gears from James.

What can you do on negotiating when you're building to order a truck?

Now, Dad, I want you to answer this.

Obviously, that being said, I want to remind everyone,

not only can you get great information, but it also helps us when you Google search things

that put car edge at the end, how to factory order a car, space car edge,

our how to factory order a car in 2025 guide pops right up.

Dad, I'd love and even the AI overview here.

I'll click on this.

We'll take a peek at it.

But Dad, I'd love your cake on this if you don't mind.

You negotiate the price of an ordered car the same way you would as if the car

were sitting on the lot.

There are certain benefits to the dealer when you order a car.

One of the benefits is that typically you're going to pick up that new car

within 72 hours of it having hit the dealership.

Well, guess what they won't have?

They won't have any floor plan costs associated with that vehicle.

What are floor plan costs?

That's the interest rate that the bank charges them when the bank buys the car

on behalf of the dealership because the dealership's financing it.

And so the floor plan charges the interest that the dealer pays

while that vehicle's sitting on the lot waiting to be sold.

Well, if it's only on the lot three days, there ain't no interest

that's going to be collected.

And guess what?

Every manufacturer pays their dealers floor plan assistance to help

cover the cost of financing their inventory on the lot.

So what does that mean for the dealer?

Well, suddenly floor plan assistance on an ordered car just becomes pure profit.

On top of the holdback, on top of everything else.

So you can negotiate an order just like it was sitting on the ground.

Okay, negotiate your discount and negotiate it in a manner that says

we've agreed upon this price, whatever that price is.

And I am entitled to whatever customer incentives might be available

from the manufacturer at the time that I take delivery.

Yep.

That's how you do it.

Hopefully that's helpful.

Matthew coming here to your kind contribution and then another story.

Thanks to this.

Did my under script signature on the German?

I don't even know that word.

Yesterday for the Cayman GTS,

stick shift lessons available in Leipzig on October 3rd.

I mean, that could be interesting to me.

You know, and you've recently said to me,

I am so sick and tired of traveling.

But, you know, if you get to learn how to drive a stick on a Cayman GTS in Germany during October,

that's probably not the best time to learn how to drive a stick during October Fest,

but it could make for a hell of a Halloween, you know.

So I don't, you just might have to find out from Matthew where he's going to be

and make arrangements to fly over there.

And, you know, I'll have to be the cameraman.

So I'll have to fly over to and record for history's sake.

One more comment here and then a new story from Gemstar.

AI is going to kill everything and replace people.

Whoa.

You won't be able to negotiate with the dealer AI.

Keep that in mind for future reference.

So a couple of things I disagree.

I think AI is going to supplement and help people.

I still think human beings are going to be involved in pretty much everything.

So that's my personal opinion.

And as dealers bring AI salespeople, AI negotiators to their stores,

remember folks, caredge.com slash AI, we are the ones building the AI agents that you can use

so that you can have your AI agent contact dealers negotiate on your behalf.

Every single day our team is making this product even better.

We have had so many success stories.

Now 2,000 people are using the AI negotiator to get them their next car.

We've had tons of success stories.

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So you can see here, I've kind of got this running in real time.

I haven't reached out 19 days ago.

My AI was going back and forth with this particular dealership seven times getting me

and out the door quote right here.

So please, folks, it's not all dooming bloom.

I think there's actually a bright spot there.

I'm pretty sure there's a bright spot.

Hopefully what our team is developing will make your life easier moving forward in the future.

And even if it's our AI agent fighting against the dealership's AI agent,

we think we're going to build a better AI agent.

And he's going to be smarter, bigger, stronger, faster.

And he's going to get you the best deal that you possibly he

or she depending upon how you want to name your agent.

Exactly.

You can you get to name your agent.

Anyway, all right, let's let's keep it moving here.

Matthew, thank you for this as well.

Ray, it's fall colors in the Pyrenees with a yellow car.

Okay. Yeah, now put me in your put me in your front, man.

I'm coming.

I want to be in your front.

That's a weird sentence.

All right, dad, let's go this direction.

We talked a little bit yesterday about,

I mean, it was yesterday or the day before EVs in the United States of America.

We're just going to start for a second here and then we'll move on.

We are being laying off 200 workers,

joins General Motors and VW and EV pullback from tax credit repeal.

Writing's on the wall.

This is another kind of a proof point that the car market's broken to a degree.

Well, it is.

And you know, part of it is government inflicted.

The part of it is, you know, the group think here in America is, well,

you know, we're Americans.

You can't tell us what we're going to buy, what we should drive.

You don't have the right to tell us that.

And so some of it is just part of Americans'

rebellious attitude.

So, yeah.

So there's the situation with EVs,

especially with the tax credits going away,

where that $7,500 could make or break a car deal.

And once that goes away, the end of this month,

yeah, you know, I think Rivian and everybody else in the EV space is thinking that,

you know, it's going to have a significant negative impact on EV sales moving forward.

And so they're trying the plan for it.

And let's face it, many of the manufacturers have pivoted anyhow,

because even though sales for EVs are up and sales continue to go up slightly,

it is nowhere near the rate or the pace that every one of these manufacturers

thought it was going to be.

And so the writing's on the wall for them now that it isn't going to happen

as quickly as they thought it would.

And they're all pivoting back to ICE and hybrid vehicles

to carry them through until if and when it ever does take off the way they thought it would.

Wouldn't be surprised if we see automakers, more EV automakers go bankrupt

because we saw a lot of that happen years ago.

Lordstown comes to mind, or many others.

So it'll be interesting to see what happens there.

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Matthew, keep on us busy here.

Appreciate you, Matthew.

Ray, you can watch Zach free climb in the Pyrenees.

I'm not free.

Nothing.

Never.

Zach is not free climbing anything.

I don't want anybody to take this wrong,

but from what I understand about when you rock climb,

there's a person below that is holding on

to the other end of the road for you.

That's your belayer.

The good belayers typically weigh equal to

or greater than the person climbing.

And here's my wish for when you climb,

that you have hired a retired sumo wrestler from Japan

to be your belayer and hold on to the other end of the rope.

So if you fall, you ain't really going anywhere.

We've got a lot of really, you've got to be kidding me,

like stories that we're going to turn our attention to

in a second, but before we do want to pull this up from Scott,

your AI tool is not so easy to use a responsive

in my personal experience.

And Scott really appreciate that.

I put a note in the chat.

If you can email me directly, Zach at caredge.com.

We're working every day to make it better.

So we'd really love and appreciate

to get the chance to talk to you and learn more.

And then from Labrador country, AI is awesome.

As my negotiator, my wife and I came home

with a used Tahoe last night in AI.

I got a $1,700 knocked off the price.

So guys, this is a brand new product,

brand new experience.

We think it's going to be really compelling.

The least we can do is be transparent up front.

Works great.

Doesn't work great.

We want to hear it.

We want to get better.

So appreciate everyone that's supporting us as we do it.

That being said, pops.

Yes.

Dealership owner salesperson charged

an alleged exotic vehicle fraud scheme.

Let's start here with the crazy news stories of the day.

Yeah, what happened?

Well, let's start with how I sent this to you

in my comment where the profits are so much greater

when you sell non-existent cars.

You just collect the money and the people never get the cars.

And well, this is a perfect example of an exotic car dealer

in the Jacksonville area who sold cars.

Never with people with cars.

Yeah.

And when people showed up at the dealership to get the cars,

dealership wasn't open.

The dealership had closed down.

They hadn't run off with your money.

There was one guy who wired the dealership $235,000 for 2019 Corvette ZR1,

got to the dealership, tried several times to track down the owner and the salesperson.

Low and behold, couldn't find them anywhere.

Never got a car.

So if you want to be extremely profitable in retail automotive,

sell things that don't exist.

Just collect the money.

Make sure you collect enough money so that you can run like hell before anybody catches you

because these guys, as bright as they were, well, they got caught.

And Dad, if I'm not mistaken, the same owner is currently being sued by Stalantis.

Because they have $3.7 million that they owe Stalantis because they're out of trust

for their football.

Yes, from when he had Alfa Romeo of Albany.

Now, first of all, okay, I don't know what Stalantis was thinking when they said to themselves,

oh my God, we must have an Alfa Romeo dealership in Albany, New York.

Because God knows, that would be like the Alfa Romeo capital of the world.

Everybody in Albany wants an Alfa Romeo.

So that was number one.

Somebody at Stalantis said, yeah, we got to have a dealership there.

And then number two, once they approved the dealership, and apparently this guy's a real

gem, in my opinion, apparently, they fronted him a whole bunch of money in floor planning

so that he could bring in these overpriced, unwanted Alpha Romeos.

And then he kind of took off with the money.

Don't worry about it.

It's like, here's how he makes his money.

He, in this case, he brought the cars in, and he didn't really pay for them.

All right, so we're going down this path of bad actors in the car business.

Here's another view.

Yeah.

Former Texas Mitsubishi dealership, General Manager, accused of embezzlement.

Dad, this one's another story that little Midland, Texas, the GM of Midland Mitsubishi

sold between $30,000 and $150,000.

What happened here?

Well, nothing good.

He inflated sales numbers so that he could pay himself more, so that he could say that

the dealership made more than it did.

He had the company write checks to him.

When you read deep into the article, it was actually much more than between $15,000

and $150,000.

Apparently, it was an absentee owner.

And sometimes owners don't look at the books as closely as they should.

And so for a number of years, he was treating himself pretty good.

He was doing good as the General Manager of a Mitsubishi dealership.

The only thing missing in this story as well probably should have been Mitsubishi

of Albany, New York could have been a dual point, could have been Mitsubishi Alfa Romeo,

where everyone wants to shop.

Well, of course, because it's the automotive capital of the world for any type of imported

automobile.

The industry is full of a lot of characters, some good, a lot, not so good.

I mean, I've told you this story when I was at Admiral Nissan.

I had check signing authority.

I wasn't a member of the family, but I had check signing authority.

And our comptroller created accounts payable for things, and he would write a check,

and he would sign my name to it, and then he would cash those checks on behalf of those

non-existent accounts.

We caught him, thankfully, the people I worked for understood.

They could look at my, they knew my signature, was all over everything in the dealership,

didn't look anything like what was on the checks.

You know, it just, there's just a lot of characters, and there has to be a lot of checks

and balances in the dealership.

I worked for a gentleman that literally, he checked every deal that went through his

dealerships.

The owner did?

Yes, the owner did.

He didn't own just like one dealership.

It was seven or eight, and he checked every deal.

He went through every deal packet.

He looked at every document and every, I mean, I used to get emails in regards to deals.

What happened on this deal?

Why did we do this on that deal?

And the damn emails were time stamped 4.35 a.m.

Okay, he didn't need a lot of sleep, okay, and he checked everything.

So it was, it would have been hard for anybody to be pulling the wool over his eyes.

And that's, you have to be, oh, I think I mentioned this to you at one point

when you started this, that you have to look at your accounts payable every month.

You have to know who you're paying, how much you're paying them,

why you're paying them that much.

Are you getting what you're supposed to be getting?

And this gentleman, I mean, he checked every deal.

It just, it sets the tone for how you're going to do business.

And, you know, there's just, I mean, even with that, I mean, we had a finance guy

at our mini dealership who took a cash deposit from a customer, gave him a receipt on the back of

his business card, okay, and it was for several thousand dollars.

The FNI manager said, you know, you don't mind I'm going to run out and grab a bite to eat.

He never came back.

Okay, he just took the money, never came back.

I mean, you know, these kind of things happen and it's unfortunate.

There are, as I say, a lot of characters in the car business.

Some that are always looking for ways to make money in illegitimate ways.

And many of them have figured it out and many of them have gotten caught.

There's basically two types of people that do this.

Those have gotten caught and those who will be getting caught.

You know, because typically you end up getting caught at some point,

might take five, six, seven, eight years, but at some point you're going to get caught.

So, you know, I guess for some of these folks, they live it up while they can and that's what it is.

It is interesting, you know, Automotive News is the industry publication and

two stories about fraud front and center today, and it's not the first time we've

talked about that. So, you know, it is such a highly considered and high dollar amount

transaction. There's so many moving pieces at the dealership.

There are lots of opportunities for fraud.

It's a bummer, but fortunately, fortunately, things get rectified.

A friendly reminder again, folks, caredge.com, buy a car without the headache.

We are here to serve you. Our customers are you, not the dealers.

We are your best friend for car buying with car edge insights or our car buying services

can get 20% off for another 48 hours.

So, please take advantage of that back at caredge.com from Rich earlier in the show.

Is there any truth? Thank you, Rich.

Is there any truth to the rumor that Zach replaced Ray with AI weeks ago?

What do you think about that, Pops?

Oh, yeah, I think my circuits blown.

There you go, folks. My dad is an AI. That is his AI impersonation.

Okay, let's end the show on this story, Dad. Tesla offers unprecedented one trillion

dollar pay package to CEO Elon Musk. I'm just going to get off the screen.

Don't get off the screen because I didn't read the article. I just know that there's

some real difficult objectives for him to hit to be able to earn that trillion dollars.

The only thing I will say is, if there is a company out there that thinks that any employee

is ultimately worth a trillion dollars, every one of those members of that company needs

to have their heads examined. Okay? Nobody, I'm sorry, in my opinion, ain't nobody out there worth

a trillion bucks. How much money do you have to pay somebody that keeps them interested

in coming to work and showing up every day? That is just like corporate malfeasance and

corporate BS. And by the way, it makes a great headline. And Kent Daigle in here says,

Elon is worth double that. No, he's not. Nobody's worth that. Nobody is worth that.

I like your approach. It's not an Elon Musk thing. It's not a Ray Sheffska thing. It's like,

just literally within any organization, here's what I'm hearing you say is,

no one's worth that. No one's that special. And I agree with you, Dad, like, I don't know.

That's just, that's just wrong. Yeah. No one is. I mean, are there bright people in the world

that need to be compensated? Yeah, but nobody needs to be compensated a trillion trillion dollars.

I mean, come on. So no, I'm sorry, I just, maybe I just think that there's better ways

to spend a trillion dollars. Galen Hertz, Dad, would you spend a trill? Oh, my God.

Well, you know, I spent a trill. If they win another Super Bowl, then for sure, yeah,

blow up the cap space that the Eagles might have. Hell, do it. Do it. Why don't we just

do away with hard caps in all sports? Just whatever them, whatever those guys are worth,

just pay them. It's like Devin Booker on the Suns, our favorite team,

signed a two year contract extension, okay, for $150 million. Now, hear me out for a second.

I'm hearing there's 82 games in an NBA schedule, 82 games. Okay, he's going to get paid $75 million

for playing 82 games. At some point, somebody is going to be paid more. And you cannot tell me,

regardless of how good a basketball player they are, or athlete they are, that anybody

is worth a million dollars for every game that they play. How is that, how does that make any sense?

Okay, you know, your doctor can make a lot of money. But they make a million dollars for every

operation, okay? I mean, imagine getting, yeah, here's a million bucks, go see a patient. It

that is just so asinine. Better ways to spend our money. What if you got paid a million bucks for

every car ads live show you did? I'd be right up there with Elon. I'm not worth that. Hell,

based on what you pay me, you don't think I'm worth anywhere near that.

I love your approach though, like, yeah, no. And to be clear, we see this to a degree already

with like, what was Jim Farley's comp like 20 million 30 million, 20 million, like 28 million

dollars, 27 million dollars. And he runs a company that has the most, most recalls in human history

in a year. Okay. And his car, he's not worth 27 million dollars. Oh, no, the amount of money,

so many of these high executives get paid and some of these athletes get paid,

is absolutely ridiculous. Nobody's skill set is worth, if Elon's skill set is worth a trillion

dollars, then I don't know, just between you, me and the lamppost, well, what would have Albert

Einstein's brain have been worth with what he was able to do? Where's Stephen Hawkins?

I mean, it's, it's... I think Newton, dad, let's go, let's keep going back. Yeah.

I mean, seriously, it just, there, I don't know, other than it's a free market. I don't know how

you justify it. But what is what conceivably can be the justification? Well, you know,

your journal's really well. Okay, great. Oh, he's got a great, he's got a great mid game. Oh,

my God. You know, this is just, it's, it's lunacy that, that we, that we pay people what we pay them,

especially in entertainment and sports. But in industry, I mean, the gentleman that had been

running Lucid for years, what was his name? Jim Rawlinson or John Rawlinson? That company

lost billions upon billions upon billions of dollars year in and year out. And one of those years

when they were losing like 3.2 billion, his, his income was $279 million. Well, my God, imagine

what they would have had to pay them if they actually made money. Okay, here's what you get

for losing 3 billion. But we'll quadruple that if you make a, if you make a dollar in profit

this year. I mean, it is just absolutely ridiculous. All right, folks, we're going to call it a show.

Tune in on Monday for more Car Edge Life. We appreciate everyone joining us.

That is going to be in DC starting Wednesday's show, I guess? Yes, Wednesday's show. I come down

Tuesday afternoon. The good news is that my new sliding doors so that I don't know what we

will have good, good, what am I trying to say? I have less air infiltration with my new sliding

glass doors and they're going to be installed on Wednesday and Thursday. Yep, so you're going

to be here in DC with me? Yes, I'm going to be in DC so that they can install the doors and

I can still do the live show so that you can overpay me. And but I'll do it from DC.

So yes, I'll be, I'll be down there Tuesday afternoon. I get in for something.

Can't wait, Pops. All right, folks. We'll enjoy the upcoming weekend. Beautiful weather here on

the East Coast. I spent some time outdoors. That's our plan, at least my plan. Hopefully you do

the same as well, Dad. And yeah, we'll catch you back here on Monday. Absolutely. Have a

great weekend, everybody. We'll see you all back here at noon Eastern Monday.

This winter, know what your vehicle needs before it needs it.

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and take advantage of stackable rebates. See dealer for complete details.

Multi-point vehicle inspections vary by participating dealer.

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