The Danger of Tunnel Vision in Automotive Diagnostics: Anchoring, Confirmation Bias, and Premature Closure [E243]
Diagnosing the Aftermarket A to Z
The Danger of Tunnel Vision in Automotive Diagnostics: Anchoring, Confirmation Bias, and Premature Closure [E243]Diagnosing the Aftermarket A to Z · Jul 1, 2026
A company that makes advanced diagnostic equipment for mechanics. Their main tool, an oscilloscope, acts like a heart monitor for a car's electrical system, showing electrical signals as visual waves.
The safety features in modern cars, like automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping assistance, and blind-spot monitoring. These systems use cameras and sensors that must be perfectly aligned to work safely.
A large family SUV made by Dodge. In this episode, a Durango was acting like its transmission was broken, but it was actually just stuck in a slow-speed off-road gear because the driver didn't put it in neutral to let it shift back to normal.
The technical codes stored in your car's computer when a warning light, like the Check Engine light, comes on. Mechanics read these codes to start figuring out what is wrong.
A special low-speed gear setting for off-roading or pulling heavy loads. It makes the car go very slow but gives it massive pulling power. If you try to drive normally on the street in this mode, the engine will rev very high and the car will feel broken.
A jerking or hopping feeling that happens when you turn a four-wheel-drive vehicle sharply on dry pavement. It happens because the front and back wheels are locked together and trying to spin at the exact same speed, even though they need to turn at different speeds.
A modern ignition system where every spark plug has its own tiny electrical coil sitting right on top of it to generate the spark. When these coils fail, the engine will misfire and run rough.
A small, stylish British hatchback owned by BMW. The host talks about a diagnostic mistake on one where a timing chain problem was misdiagnosed as a bad turbocharger.
The perfect timing alignment between the top half of the engine (valves) and the bottom half (pistons). If they get even slightly out of sync, the engine will run poorly, and in some cars, the pistons can crash into the valves and destroy the engine.
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Welcome everyone to yet another episode of Diagnosing the Aftermarket Day Dizzy.
I'm Matt Fonsland. Humor is just another defense against the universe.
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I normally don't like giving away what quotes are. People can either try to figure them out
or if they recognize them. Hopefully they get a kick out of them.
But I'm going to tell you what this one was. This is from the man, the myth, the legend.
No, not Scott Manna. Sorry. I'm sure he said it before.
This other great, absolute American treasure that is Mel Brooks.
The reason I'm quoting him is this episode will be about notism.
Maybe a big letdown or I should reconsider and try to make an episode on Mr. Brooks.
But he turned 100 today. So I thought it's only fitting to quote him and,
I mean, what is there to say, regardless of these 100 or not, his contributions to
the entertainment of us, hopefully us, and particularly me, is immeasurable.
And I don't know. I think the first Mel Brooks movie I remember
might have been almost on a whim, a history of the world part one.
I think it was on TV. And I thought it was going to be a documentary because,
I mean, we're talking, I was pretty young and ends up it's hilarious, said Caesar.
Wow. If you listen to this, you know, I think the world of a lot of these
historically, hopefully historically significant entertainers and comedians or comedic actors,
actors, regardless, it doesn't matter. I mean, athletes.
So anyway, it's amazing that he's 100 and even more amazing. He is alive to be in
Spaceballs 2, which I just, I hope they can do it right. I think they got the right people involved.
I really hope they do right by Mel, Spaceballs, John Candy.
I'll be very upset if they don't. I mean, awful threat. That'll be upset too.
But yeah, you know, Ghostbusters afterlife, like I thought they knocked that clean out of the ballpark
as a, oh, I don't know, continuation as well as paying homage to the great Harold Ramis
who played a gun. It was also a director and screenwriter for major hits, but we can't,
I guess I don't want to go down this rabbit hole because I'll be here for hours going on and on
about this stuff. I have a different idea for this episode, and it has to do with a video I
posted a short. And I think it's on a lot of platforms, mainly like Facebook, I think Facebook
Reels, but I think it's in YouTube shorts, stuff like that. And it was about a Dodge Drango that
was brought, dropped off at the shop for a second opinion and really wondering, you know,
if it indeed needed this part, which I guess I don't want to beat around the bush. The suspicion
was that it needed a transmission. Could I program the new quote unquote new transmission or TCM
with the latest and greatest if it indeed needs the transmission? The complaint was very harsh
upshifts. And the engine like slipping major slipping, that was the complaints. And there's no
DTCs. So could I take a look at it? Do I agree that it needs a transmission? And of course,
if they do the transmission, can I program it when they're done? Okay, hop in this thing.
And yeah, put it in gear and it slams, slams. And I'm in the parking lot. And I start accelerating
towards the street. So I don't know 50 feet. In 50 feet, I think I'm in third gear. It upshifts
from first to third. So on the instrument cluster, you can kind of see, you know,
prindle if you will. And under the letter D, or I guess, if you're in park, there's a letter P
to the right. And then put it in the reverse and R. Okay, drive shows the gear it's in.
So you put in, if you're out of stop, put it in drive, you see one. And then as it upshifts,
you can see it going through the gears. By the time I get to the street, I'm doing,
I'm in third year. And I'm doing a whopping 15. I thought, wow, this thing really is slipping.
That was my knee jerk. There are no DTCs. I notice a green flashing light. It's kind of
the top center of the instrument cluster, a little bit to the left hand side, a little bit
to the driver's side on the instrument cluster. And it's flashing. I think it's, yeah, auto
four wheel drive green. And I don't know what that means. Like, I think it's a clue,
but I wasn't exactly sure what that meant. I take a right onto the street and I start
accelerating. And this is all in that video. And I think I've already explained these videos
things. It didn't start out some strategy. The very first one, I just recorded it to send us
off the cuff. And then Tracy was just wondering what was going on in the shop and talked a while,
wondering if we're busy. And I sent her the video just thinking you can look at what I'm doing,
messing around. All right, post it up. And whatever, I guess it's popular enough to
have it suggested to try to do it, do it more regularly, post up something,
or send a video and regularly a short. So however many there are now, this one seems
particularly popular, if only because I think the nature of it. And anyways, I turn right onto
the street and I start accelerating and I can see us upshifting like crazy and harsh like, you know,
eighth year, still under 30 miles an hour. But I think I'm over 2000 rpm. So it's pretty insane
for about 30 miles an hour. I'm like, start thinking about it like, what could cause the
transmission to slip in all gears like that? That's not computing. And when I go around corners,
it's hopping really bad. And then it dawns on me. This thing's in four low. There's a dial in the
center console very close to like, where the armrest would be like, it's very close. There's
another dial on there, right? We're putting it in gear. So the second dial further back.
And there's two positions, there's auto, and then there's four low, it's in the auto position.
So as I turn around and start coming back towards the shop, I noticed that on the screen, it kind
of says shift to neutral to allow completed shift. I'm like, oh man, so is this thing stuck in four
low? I pop it in the neutral and you could hear it shift. And now the problem's gone. Green flashing
auto lights gone. Of course, there's no TTCs, it shifts normally, there's no more major wheel hop
going around corners or driveline bind, if you will. The car's essentially fixed. And then I just
kind of start messing around like reproducing this issue. And it's easily done. So I post the video.
I post the video because I had no idea what that flashing green light was. A resource
technicians or mechanical and technical specialists often refuse or forget to reference is
the owner's manual. If it's there, like, don't get me wrong. A lot of times I can't find the owner's
manual or I got to go find it online and sift through the PDF, no big deal around my phone,
I suppose if I pull over the side of the roads, you know what I mean. But yeah, I look at the owner's
manual and that's the clue. The clue was it wanted to shift out of four low into auto.
It couldn't do it because it was never in neutral long enough. And you start thinking about it,
like when people are doing shifts, they're maybe not like us. I think I catch myself
when I move a shift lever, I kind of go through the gears, if you will, like park to reverse,
reverse to neutral, and then neutral to drive. It's pretty rare that I just grab that handle or
dial and just straight to drive. Boom. I just don't do it. I don't know why. Maybe it's just learned.
I'm guessing it's learned from doing this for a living. I just don't do it. But for a customer,
just watching customers get in their cars, yeah, it's bang right in the drive.
So it's possible. However, however they got it into four low on purpose, I'm guessing on accident.
Maybe they got kids, grandkids, I don't know. Somebody moved the dial to four low.
It was in neutral long enough to make the shift. And then it was stuck. So fine. That might explain
the client or the vehicle owner. What about the shop? They're ready to put a transmission
in this vehicle. And if they would have, they want to fix the car, it would have still been
quote unquote broken. How do you handle that? But we don't have to run it forward that far.
How do you get to the point of replacing a transmission for this problem? And I think that's
partly why the video is getting more activity than some of the others that are arguably better
or have more pertinent information in them or usable information for us. I suppose that's my
opinion. I think it's because it feels so absurd and so wildly incompetent on the part of either
the shop or the mechanical or technical specialist involved in working on the vehicle,
diagnosing it. Yeah, okay, fine. By definition, it's incompetent, but let's be real. By definition,
incompetent, most of us are incompetent at a lot of what we do. Just deal with it.
We use incompetent with such condescension. And when we hear it, we take it so hard, we're so
ashamed by that word, such a negative, what connotation to it or just
negative feel associated with it. And I get it. But on the flip side, while we are incompetent,
there's probably other explanations at play here. I think the most valid one is tunnel vision.
I suppose we could get really fancy and we could start, but no, it's some, I mean, psychology,
right? Confirmation bias, anchoring and premature closure. I mean, that's about sums it up.
So in my mind, and I could be wrong, the anchoring part was the first clue. And this is my
interpretation. I don't want to act like I'm some freaking psychologist. I'm not. Margaret listens
to this Margaret light. If she listens to some of these episodes, she's probably calling her text
to me going like, well, not exactly right. And she's the expert. I'm incompetent when it comes to that.
But confirmation bias, we need to start with anchoring anchoring, probably to me,
was the slipping, the perceived slipping, put it into gear, hit the accelerator,
RPMs go way high and the car ain't moving. That was interpreted as slipping.
I don't know if there's a scan tool involved. I don't know. Maybe there was. If there was, did
they go to maybe engine RPM graft against or I don't know if you even even really needed to
graph it, but engine RPM versus input transmission input RPM, that could give you if there isn't
a dedicated slip pit, you know, a torque converter slip pit, if there isn't a dedicated one,
that would very much rule out slipping, at least torque converter. And then you could look up
gear ratios, I suppose, and get an idea if you have an internal slipping of a curry, which to me,
in every gear is, I don't know, borderline impossible. I'm sure now that I've said that many
of you can type out exactly what I'm missing and what could cause it. But consistently,
that ratio off like almost 50%, if you will, depending on, I guess, depending on what perspective
we want to take, engine RPM versus vehicle speed, that the RPM seems to be about twice as high as
it should be, or vehicle speed is about 50% of what it should be versus RPM, something of that nature,
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so anchoring was that first real bit of data that they got that kind of sold them on the idea
that this is internal transmission failure. This thing's slipping like mad. Okay. Confirmation
bias would be any and all information gathered, be it feeling, be it hearing their butt sensor,
their sense of smell, whatever else they're going to use, maybe not so much smell in this case,
but I think definitely your butt sensor and definitely your ears. And maybe they did look
at some scan data and they just decided that that data supported bad transmission. That would be,
I think, confirmation bias. The information is really either twisted or only the information
that supports your idea of this being a bad transmission is being used.
And lastly, you have premature closure, little to no follow through. I probably have a better
example of premature closure that'll rattle off just a little bit later. I think we probably see
far more often. But yeah, minimal if any follow up tests. So that's how they arrive at it.
They arrived at it because when they got in the car, once they felt that once they sensed that
once they thought, Oh man, this transmission is hatched. They're done. The diagnosis was done.
So yeah, I suppose we could sit on our freaking, you know, high horses and go, Oh,
how awful. Yeah. Okay. If a transmission got put in there and the customer got charged for it,
that would have been awful. If a transmission got put in it, didn't fix the car customer wasn't
charged for it. And then the shop really figured out it was just in for low. It sucks for the shop.
It sucks for the tech mechanical specialist or specialists involved. It would. I don't wish
bad stuff on anybody. But that is an awful customer isn't customer paid for what time,
which I guess most valuable resource, but, you know, nothing out of pocket,
honest mistake and a terrific learning opportunity, expensive learning opportunity.
I don't know. That's how I guess I define awful is somebody that they paid, you know,
awful would be the customer paid for the transmission and then the shop figured out
they just needed to let it shift into for low and ship the car, charging them for the transmission
the customer doesn't know any better. They think, Oh my God, this thing shifts. Wonderful.
That would be awful. How often does that happen? And not just transmissions, just in general.
How many repairs does that happen? Customers paying for certain things to fix certain problems.
They're paying for really confirmation bias, anchoring and premature closure.
And then the real fixes for free. I think that happens a lot. And I get why because nobody
wants to pay that price. Shops don't want to pay that price. But at some point,
we want to talk about ethics. And I know I've made the argument that you really don't find
economics and ethics in the same sentence. You know, there really is no ethical profit.
That's just not a thing. But it is, right? People pay for our services to fix what was broken or
to bring the vehicle back to manufacture specs. That's what they're paying us for. And
unethical would be charging them for something it didn't need. And then not charging them for
what actually fixed the car. I suppose there's situations we could twist that around where
it works in their favor. But how often does that really happen? So the other example I would use,
I think common, I don't know if I necessarily need the name like a car line specific. There's
some car lines where this is far more common than others. But it comes in with a misfire.
You can feel it customers complaining about rough idle, rough running, maybe lacks a little bit of
get up and go. The mill is flashing. And, you know, they want you to fix the car.
Bring it in, hook up scan to P zero, whatever 301. Pick your car line, coil on plug. What's it need?
Coil and plug. How many cars does that happen? How many cars legitimately get fixed doing that?
Because that's what's wrong from a purely probabilistic standpoint, depending on the car
line. There's a good chance that's exactly what is wrong. But it's still the same things at play
here. It's still confirmation bias. It's still anchoring. It's still premature closure. You may
end up right until you're not. It's this make of car. It's got a misfire. Yeah, nine times out of 10
or more. It is the coil, but you don't do any more testing. You're okay playing gambling, if you
will, or playing the probabilities game. It's still anchoring is I know what the car line is.
I know that there is our high failure rate. It's got a misfire. And I know which cylinder it's on.
Boom. That's the anchoring. That's the information. That's all the information you needed
to call a coil and or spark plug. And it's probably both, right? If it's either a coil or a coil and
plug. And then what's the confirmation bias is simply, again, I can feel the misfire. It's really
common. I don't know. You're looking at the live misfire graph. Maybe smell a little bit of fuel
further fueling the theory that it's ignition, gonna put the coil and plug on it. That's super
common. That happens all the time. And people are right most of the time. But when they're not,
then what? And it's not like taking on anyone to task, but it's the same type of thing
where there isn't more testing. There isn't any other data looked at will be used strictly to
support the initial idea of it being a coil and spark plug. So it's not so different than
wanting to put a transmission in a vehicle that's put in locked in for low. Other than the ticket,
right? The price, the price difference, the price discrepancy is what really
breaks this comparison. But on purely theoretical, pure process, I don't really see a difference.
So it's really hard for me to get judgy. And again, they didn't do it. They didn't put the
transmission in. Even if they did, like, did they charge the customer for it? Yes, got a problem
with it. Got a big problem with it. Didn't charge the customer for it. And that sucks. That is a
tough, tough lesson. It actually reminds me of this mini Cooper. I think I talked about this one
time when it first came in, the complaint was low boost or lack of power. And it had low boost
DTCs. And I think it had one cam crank correlation DTC blow the codes out of it go drive it would
set low boost codes all over and over and over, never set that cam crank correlation code again
on my clock. And I thought about cam crank timing for a millisecond and I was moving on to something
to do with boost ceiling of leaking, you know, intercooler hoses or something like that clamps
connections. Finally, I mean, I did a lot of testing. I didn't feel like I was hung up on
any one thing. I kind of wanted to rule out the turbo, but I couldn't I got stuck where I felt like
some weird failure in that turbo was causing this to not have the ability to build boost.
So we quoted her a turbo, we didn't put a turbo on we quoted it. And the client decided to hold off
was still drive a bull, but she's going to park it and think about it or save up money. And then I
think a friend of hers suggested a different shop. And yeah, they went crazy. Well, I guess it is the
lack of competence. So it was the honest mistake. Again, it didn't set that cam crank correlation,
but it turns out that's a common problem on these. That was a tough lesson. I called the client, I
explained the situation, I wanted to refund all the money that we charged her for diagnostics. And
if the car hadn't been fixed yet, I would like to make things right. And we were allowed that
opportunity. They did they brought the vehicle back. We made it right. They're ecstatic. I learned
a really, really, really tough lesson, both just at the shop and online. And it was why they posted
invoices with people's names on my wall. I don't know they're calling me incompetent while doing
that. But yeah, I don't know. I guess it feels good to know something or figure out something
somebody else didn't. But yeah, that was rough. And my argument was still the same. Even if we
bolted that turbo on, and it didn't fix the car, she wouldn't have been charged for that turbo.
She'd have had a probably a brand new turbo on her vehicle for free. And then I would have had
to really figure out what's wrong with it. And hopefully I would actually figured it out. Got
to skip the whole new turbo thing with this direction. But yeah, it sucked. I don't know
which one I would rather have took quite a to be quite honest. But yeah, tunnel vision,
it's something to be very concerned about is something to be aware of not so much concerned
about it happens. But be aware, just think about think add some steps to your diagnostic process,
which is what is my confirmation bias, am I anchoring and am I premature closing
prematurely closing my process here? Those are very valid questions to ask. And I
strongly strongly urge you to do so. They may suck to answer, but I strongly strongly urge you to
do so. And to wrap this episode up, I think we mean, it makes perfect sense. I can't say that
my email has been flooded with these questions, just a couple of them. But Mount Rushmore of
Mel Brooks films. I would think this would be easy, but maybe it won't. Blazing Saddles is
a masterpiece. Spaceballs. Then I would say, I guess when we're talking about Mel Brooks films,
right, we're talking about ones he's in and directs, right, the classic Mel Brooks. So
what do we got Blazing Saddles? Spaceballs. I think you got to go with the producers.
And then last but not least, it's a tough one. I'm sure some of you want me to say Robin Hood
men and tights, but as much as I do like that movie, to put it on the Mount Rushmore just
seems unreasonable. I got to go with history of the world part one. Maybe I'm biased because
as the first movie of his, I remember really seeing and not really knowing it was his, but
it's good to be the king. Blazing Saddles, Spaceballs, the producers and history of the
world part one. Yeah, that would be my, that's my Mount Rushmore of Mel Brooks films and I got
a level with you. I kind of hope one could be bumped by Spaceballs too. I doubt it's possible
because I think all four are very, very strong movies. I didn't put young Frankenstein on there
because Mel Brooks is involved, but that was really a Gene Wilder film, another treasure,
maybe for a different episode. But I know Mel Brooks is involved in young Frankenstein. I just
don't really know that I can call it really a Mel Brooks film like the other, the four on the
Mount Rushmore. So that's why I didn't put that on there. To me, that's more of a Gene Wilder film.
So thank you very, very much for listening. Thank you so very much to our sponsors, Hotel and Pico
Technology. Thank you to the Automotive Repair Podcast Network and until next time, take care.
Thank you so much for listening to what you have to say. Let them know what you'd like them to
cover and come on the show. Matt is all for advancing the aftermarket. Find Matt Fonzlow on
social media and connect or on aftermarketradionetwork.com.
About this episode
When a Dodge Durango is brought in for a second opinion on a supposedly slipping transmission, a simple test drive reveals a surprising truth: the vehicle is just stuck in four-wheel-drive low. Host Matt Fonsland uses this real-world diagnostic blunder to explore the psychological traps that technicians fall into, including anchoring, confirmation bias, and premature closure. Discover how a flashing green light and a quick look at the owner's manual saved a customer from an unnecessary transmission replacement, and learn valuable lessons on avoiding diagnostic tunnel vision in the shop.
A Dodge Durango came into the shop for a second opinion after being suspected of needing a transmission. The symptoms sounded convincing at first: harsh shifts, apparent slipping, no diagnostic trouble codes, and a vehicle that felt completely wrong on the road. But the actual problem was much simpler. The Durango was stuck in four-low. Once shifted properly through neutral, the harsh shifting, driveline bind, and “slipping” behavior disappeared.
Matt uses the case as a springboard into a broader discussion about diagnostic tunnel vision. The point is not just that someone almost condemned a transmission unnecessarily. The deeper issue is how easily a first impression can become the diagnosis. Once the vehicle felt like it was slipping, everything after that could be interpreted through that lens. That is where anchoring, confirmation bias, and premature closure start to become dangerous.
The episode also compares the Durango case to a more common misfire scenario. A vehicle comes in with a misfire, the scan tool identifies a cylinder, the car line is known for coil failures, and the diagnosis becomes a coil and plug before much testing happens. That gamble may work most of the time, but the process failure is still there. Being right by probability is not the same as proving the fault.
Matt also shares a personal example involving a Mini Cooper that was nearly misdiagnosed as needing a turbo. The actual issue was cam/crank timing related. The mistake became a difficult but important lesson in responsibility, process, and making things right with the customer.
The episode closes with a nod to Mel Brooks on his 100th birthday, including Matt’s Mount Rushmore of Mel Brooks films: Blazing Saddles, Spaceballs, The Producers, and History of the World, Part One.
Key Topics
Why the Durango seemed like it had a major transmission failure
How four-low can mimic slipping, harsh shifting, and driveline problems
The importance of reading the owner’s manual when unfamiliar indicators appear
Anchoring, confirmation bias, and premature closure in diagnostics
Why “incompetent” may be technically accurate but often incomplete as an explanation
The ethical problem of charging for the wrong repair when the real fix is simple
Why common failures can make weak testing feel justified
How probabilistic diagnosis can work until it does not
The value of owning a mistake and making it right
Mel Brooks, comedy, and Matt’s Mount Rushmore of Mel Brooks films
Pull Quote Options
“The first impression is often the most dangerous piece of data in the whole diagnostic process.”
“Being right most of the time does not mean the process was right.”
“Customers should not be paying for our anchoring, our confirmation bias, and our premature closure.”
“The real danger is not being wrong. The real danger is being done too early.”
Episode Takeaways
A symptom that feels obvious can still be misleading. The Durango felt like it was slipping, but the transmission was not the problem.
A flashing indicator or odd message on the dash may be the clue. The owner’s manual may not feel like a diagnostic tool, but sometimes it is.
Common failures can create lazy confidence. A known coil failure pattern or common turbo issue may point in the right direction, but it does not replace verification.
Premature closure is expensive. It can cost the customer, the shop, or both.
Ethics matter most when the mistake is discovered after the repair. The customer should not pay for a part that did not fix the vehicle just because the shop eventually stumbled into the real fix.
A good diagnostic process should include forced questions: What am I anchored to? What evidence am I accepting too easily? What would prove my theory wrong?
Thanks to our Partner, Pico Technology
Are you chasing elusive automotive problems? Pico Technology empowers you to see what's really happening. Their PicoScope oscilloscopes transform your diagnostic capabilities. Visit PicoAuto.com
Thanks to our Partner, Autel
From drivability diagnostics and TPMS service to ADAS and advanced safety systems, Autel helps technicians follow OEM procedures and repair with confidence. Learn more at Autel.com