The Road Ahead

This podcast series is brought to you by Hyundai.

Hyundai is building a better world for tomorrow.

By aiming to neutralize CO2 emissions at all stages of production and operation, Hyundai

is working toward carbon neutrality.

By 2045, learn more at HyundaiUSA.com.

Up until this point, we've focused in on the very real ways the auto industry has evolved

on its impact on the global climate.

We've looked at the history, automakers' unique decision-making on electrified products,

how suppliers are transforming their manufacturing processes, how government can help or hurt

efforts, and the technology that could accelerate these changes.

This has mostly been a story of hope, of progress, and of zeal.

But this story would be incomplete without acknowledging the substantial and very real

obstacles in the road ahead.

And even if the industry continues down this path without hitting major roadblocks, will

it be enough?

This is Driving to Zero, the auto industry's roadmap to carbon neutrality.

I'm Jake Neer with Automotive News.

Paramal Arumagam leads the Mitigation Division for the United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change, or the UNFCCC.

When people say UNFCCCC, sometimes people use four Cs, which we do not know, which is

the fourth C. So often now we call, like, when people think they normally say UN climate

change secretariat.

It could be cool, or it could be the cool climate secretariat.

There you go, there you go.

Paramal says the UNFCCC essentially acts as the chief accountability office for the Paris

Climate Agreement.

He says we're entering a critical period for climate action.

And the news so far isn't good.

The science is quite clear, like we have been listening, alarming bills from IPCC, etc.

We are still off the track.

He says some of the big reasons include a lack of finance globally for climate saving projects

and methods, trade-offs and synergies between development and climate, and last but not least

in his mind, effective pricing on carbon.

Once you have to pay a price for what you are emitting, you start looking at opportunities

to reduce.

So it brings the culture of identifying an opportunity to reduce within a given sector.

That pays way for technological innovation.

Regardless of the prescription, he says the transportation sector is a massive part of

the diagnosis.

In 2021, the global CO2 emissions from the transportation sector

is like around 7.7 gigatons, which is huge in terms of 4.5 to 5% of the total global emissions.

Now, a significant amount of those emissions are coming from the shipping and aviation industries.

But Paramal says the auto industry still has a very important role to play.

In fact, he says it's uniquely positioned to set an example to the rest of the world

about how different sectors can work together to make the massive changes needed to save our climate.

I think automotive industry is one area which will be a right blend between a producer and a consumer.

And then if you have international financing community and the investment community

putting billions and billions and dollars towards technological changes to look at

transformative and paradigm shift within the transportation sector, this can offer a template.

For example, remember earlier in the series when we talked about the changing relationship between

automakers and electric utilities in the shift to electric vehicles?

Paramal says this is another unique opportunity to show how business leaders can help transform

adjacent industries.

Okay, you can produce EV vehicles, but then you need to have storage, you need to have charging stations.

So how the system works may also be a template which can work for an energy sector, for example,

in its supply chain and the value chain.

But let's look at that switch to EVs. Paramal says it's an example of another big challenge,

the inherently slow speed at which these kinds of solutions move.

The number of vehicles that are on the road today, the stock of the vehicles,

is 15 times more than the annual new car sales that are happening globally.

Vehicles are very long life products.

The average age of vehicles on the road in the U.S. today is over 12 years.

And so even if we stop building internal combustion vehicles today,

you'd be looking at decades to replace the 290 million registered vehicles that are on the road today.

That's Sam Abu Al-Samad, a principal research analyst leading Guidehouse Insights' E-Mobility

Division. Guidehouse is a global consulting firm. Sam's team, in part, helps clients

develop their strategies on a broad range of areas where companies are trying to decarbonize.

I spoke with him and his colleague, Mike Austin, a senior research analyst at Guidehouse.

Mike echoes those worries about decarbonizing vehicles on the road, even under the best case

scenario. So even if nationwide we're above 30% of new EV sales by 2030, it's still less than 10%

of the vehicle population. So we have all this effort and all this energy and it takes a long

time to set up those pieces of the supply chain to get to EV volume. And even with all that effort

and even with all these increasing sales, it's still, you know, a fraction of the cars on the road.

And Sam and Mike say there's also plenty of things standing in the way of that best case

scenario for EV adoption. Sam says one of the biggest barriers might just be the consumer.

The problem is consumers are not rational. Consumers buy for their worst case scenario,

which is why you see so many people driving around in full-size SUVs and pickup trucks

that really don't need them. But they buy what they think they might want or need on some

hypothetical day. But most of the time they don't need it. And Mike says one of the best solutions

is one that automakers and customers alike probably won't accept. On a societal level,

if we want to decarbonize transportation, the biggest thing you can do is not drive.

Which kind of runs contrary to what automakers are doing, which is trying to sell cars.

Right. But also, again, you have an irrational consumer where you could say you could live

in a one-car household or you could use a bike or you could take a public transit.

Some of that we don't have set up. There's a lot of car dependency in the U.S. all over.

So there is a lot of the question of how do we reduce our overall carbon emissions falls on

things that the automakers can't handle. But Sam and Mike say there are so many reasons not to throw

in the towel on decarbonizing our roadways. In the last episode, we talked about the promise

of technologies, including solid state batteries. Sam thinks those faster charging batteries and

better charging infrastructure could make EV ownership appealing to a lot more Americans.

As charging gets better, it becomes more available and more reliable. That's the

key is the reliability and also faster. If you've got a 150 mile EV that can recharge in 10 or 15

minutes, that solves a lot of the problem. And if you know that you're going to be able to pull

into that charging station, plug it in, and it's going to work, that addresses most of the problem.

Above and beyond the product, they're also optimistic about broader decarbonizing efforts

as long as automakers keep ramping those up, which is still a question. Maybe it's a little

cynical, but these automakers have made good pledges about decarbonization, but they're not

quite saying we're doing everything we can right now before they get there.

But Mike says auto companies are slowly but surely realizing the real economic benefits

of cutting carbon in their industrial practices beyond just the marketing benefit of attention

grabbing headlines. Carbon neutrality is cool and fashionable now. A lot of corporations,

not just automakers like to tout it. Some of it is playing a little fuzzy with the rules like,

carbon sequestration or carbon credits from force, and there's not necessarily great accounting

with that. Or there's cases where that's being abused. And I don't really expect that most

corporations are going to say, no, listen, we're not doing any carbon credits. We are 100% carbon

free. All of our electricity is renewable. There's a lot of reasons why they wouldn't do it. But

as an optimist, I would also say the things that are coming along are going to help that,

even if a corporation didn't want to be carbon neutral. If you look at things like the advancements

in solar and wind and how the cost of generation has dropped over time, as we're electrifying

transportation, as renewables become more usable and more integrated into the grid,

all of these things are just going to make a stronger business case, not just a marketing case

for that decreased carbonization. So I'm hoping for the best.

And he says, perhaps the most likely thing to propel the industry towards zero emissions

is the thing we don't even know about yet. We can't predict where a lot of this is going to go.

It's super early. And there's a bunch of things that you won't anticipate 10 years from now,

might be a big deal. I mean, everyone points to the iPhone as the example. But

you know, when the iPhone came out, you wouldn't have expected that it would be able to warn you

of health risks because of, you know, something get detected in your watch.

Similarly, we're not going to, you know, we don't know that about electrification

and batteries and the changing transportation landscape, but it's all interconnected. So,

you know, the more that you can put those pieces together and maybe make guesses at

what's going to fit together or what's going to be that catalyst to make a bunch of change,

that's where you're going to find the clearest picture of your crystal ball.

When we come back, we'll look at what we've learned along the way while exploring the

auto industry's energy transition and we'll keep talking about some of the biggest challenges ahead

and whether the industry is truly serious about these efforts. That's next on Driving to Zero.

Hyundai's vision, progress for humanity is based on a determination to ensure universal mobility

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and over 20 years of research into hydrogen technology, Hyundai is leading the way for change

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for tomorrow and the future of hydrogen has never been more promising. Learn more at HyundaiUSA.com.

Well, we are coming to the close of our limited series here on how the industry is moving to cut

carbon and just to sort of close things out, again, we have Automotive News Executive Editor

Jamie Butters with us. Jamie, thanks once again for joining us. Glad to do it, Jake.

And Hannah Lutz, Automotive News electrification reporter who's been covering so many of these

topics for us. Hannah, welcome back to Driving to Zero. Hi, Jake. Thanks for having me.

So I think we should talk about a lot of the positive things that are happening in this space

and also maybe some of the biggest challenges ahead. Let's start with the positive.

As we've sort of uncovered through our reporting and through this series as well,

you know, the investments in electrification are really substantial. I don't think you can

argue against that at this point, but I'm curious in your minds, both of you, how significant they've

been. And Hannah, let's start with you. Yeah, so we've seen investments really from all sides,

which I mean, it's hard to really add them all together. But when you look at charging infrastructure,

when you look at manufacturing, battery development, battery recycling,

there's been so much investment just in the past few years, even earlier this year,

$100 million for repairing and maintaining chargers. If anyone was wondering if this is

really going to happen, if we're really going to electrify our fleet, this proves that it

will. We don't know exactly when all of the vehicles on the road will be electric, but

this investment is really making it happen. Yeah, Jamie, I think one of the conversations we had

near the outset of this is this perception of greenwashing. You know, many industries have

sort of been accused of this attitude that we're going to put out press releases and say we're

going green when the actions don't really back that up. But in this case, as Hannah said, you

have billions of dollars. I mean, you can't really argue that's not real.

No, it's very significant investments as Mary Barra is fond of saying we're going to see more

change in the next 10 years than we've seen in the past 100 years. That's all true. Of course,

what we've really focused on with this series is the actual carbon output. It's carbon,

as to borrow the phrase from Toyota, carbon is the enemy. It's not necessarily gasoline,

it's not cars. So it's a much more complicated thing, but electric vehicles are an important

component of that, probably the biggest part of the automotive picture. But it's also,

it's the energy industry. It's how the vehicles are made. There's a lot that goes into it.

I mean, just kind of going off of what you both said, it's fair to say the genie is out of the

bottle here, right? I mean, people have talked about what if there's political change in the

future, all that sort of thing. But I mean, it seems to me at least, correct me if I'm wrong,

it just doesn't seem like the industry, at least it doesn't look like there's any going back at

this point, both when it comes to the embrace of EVs and also sort of the investments in cleaning

up their entire sort of process. Is that fair to say? I think that change at the political level

could slow down the acceleration of EVs. I mean, I think that the intentions of the automakers

are clear. But if some of that pressure was removed, then the transition could slow down a bit.

But I mean, they've really, they've made their product plans and they've made their investments.

So that will stay true. I think the development, at least for now, is really, really fast. But that

doesn't mean adoption is fast. That will take time.

One troubling element of the political picture is that a lot of people, a lot of Republicans,

have come to see EVs as a luxury of the liberal elite. And they politicized it and turned,

you know, driving an EV into a political statement, which it can be. Obviously, if people are

driving an EV or you think back to when the Prius was first hit, people were trying to make a

statement about being environmentally aware. But sometimes it's just a cool car. And people should

be allowed to do that without it having to have political baggage. And of course, we're just so

early in the development of the technology to really make the superior economic offer,

that'll happen over time. Well, speaking of the politics of this and going into policy,

you know, the government incentives for zero emissions vehicle adoption and the infrastructure

involved is also something we've talked about during this series that seems like it is certainly

ramping up in a big way. Jamie, what are your thoughts on sort of moving forward,

looking down the road? You know, the government's role seems to be sort of solidifying and

established in this sort of transition. Yeah, the Inflation Reduction Act has been with us

long enough. It kind of feels normalized. We're still, there's some things we don't entirely know

how's the foreign entity of concern rule going to be worked out. But it is still kind of amazing

when you step back and think about $7,500 toward each electric vehicle potentially.

And the idea that that is targeted to reach 50% or two thirds of the market by 2030-2032,

we could be talking about eight, 12 million vehicles getting $7,500 worth of federal incentives,

a piece. Of course, there's the income limits on it. But if people go to leases, then all the

vehicles can qualify. So it could be very costly. It could be a huge bill for the federal government.

If eight million vehicles get $7,500 of federal tax support, that is a $60 billion a year

subsidy from the federal government to the auto industry. And then, of course, we hit a cliff

after 2032 when presumably the vehicles will be capable of standing on their own.

But that's going to be very disruptive as well. So it'll be very interesting how it plays out. But

certainly, yes, the government is right there at the cash register with the American consumer

when they're trying to buy their EVs. Yeah, the government also has taken a big role in

deciding where these EVs are going to be built and where their parts will come from and where

the materials for the batteries will come from. So localizing the supply chain has become a big

push toward that because of these federal incentives. So let's talk a little bit also about

one of the things that surprised me a little bit, at least in the way that it's framed. And that is

the role of the investments that we're talking about outside of the immediate auto industry in

some ways. When we spoke with DTE Energy, the utility here in Southeast Michigan,

it became pretty clear that there are programs in place that would essentially allow the industry

to pump money into just the greening of the grid writ large, not just for their plants, but

that they're playing a bigger role in being able to say, hey, we're offsetting whatever energy

we're using at our plants and producing renewable energy through that. But really what that means

is that the electrons that we bring into our houses and our cars and businesses, more of them

are coming from green sources because of some of the investments that the industry is making.

Jamie, I know we talked about this in a previous episode, but it seems like that

that plus the investments that the industry is making in technology, this has a lot of

tentacles that reach outside of the immediate auto industry and sort of make everything cleaner.

Yeah, there's a lot of potential benefits that can sort of snowball over time, that can build on

each other. Part of it is, as we know, I mean, these technologies are still, they're maybe not in

their infancy, but they're maybe in their adolescence, solar cells keep getting more powerful. I think

the wind turbines, the progress keeps making in their efficiency and of course how the energy

gets stored from those. The automakers stepping up and installing these solar fields or whatever

else they're doing to jumpstart the greening of the grid, once they get done, which this is a

years-long process, but once those get built, by then the next fields that get built will be even

more economical. So when suppliers or regular consumers are saying, hey, I want the solar

energy as well, they'll be able to get a higher return on their dollars in the future.

Let's talk about some of the biggest challenges now. In terms of EV infrastructure and adoption,

I mean, we talk about this a lot, but how far do we still have to go at this point to build out

the infrastructure specifically and what's lacking? So there's a lot of building definitely that needs

to be done. There needs to be installation of the chargers, both level two, which is a slower

charge kind of when you're out and about and need to just top off and the fast chargers that can get

you a charge in 30 minutes or so. So you need to install those, but then also you need to make

sure they work. So that's been a very significant challenge in the industry, the reliability of

the chargers. Just an anecdote over the weekend, I was in Toronto and there were probably 20

level two and fast chargers in this parking structure that I was in. Every single one of

them was out of service. It must have been a full system outage or something. They must have all

connected, but they were all out of service. So it's a really big issue here and in Canada,

apparently. And it's something that the industry is trying to address really fast because it needs

to be addressed very, very quickly if the adoption of EV is going to scale. So what kind of manpower

are we talking about when it comes to just maintaining and working on all of the infrastructure

that's needed for electrification? So Q Merit, which installs EV chargers into some training,

they think that the US will need at least 142,000 more certified electricians by 2030 and that's

to support the country's full electrification push. So that's EV charging, solar panels,

battery storage, smart panels, etc. So yeah, we're looking at over 100,000 more people to do that.

The skill set required to fix these chargers is something that we haven't really seen combined

before. So first, many of these charging requests, you need to be an electrician. You need that sort

of expertise for other issues you need to have a software background. So there's this combination

of skill sets that you need and maybe one person has them all, but maybe not. So it's really trying

to put together this whole sort of new industry of people to work with these chargers. And Jamie,

we talked about this a little bit in the last episode too, but it is one of those things where

it's not only a practical issue, but it's also a perception issue, right? In terms of convincing

people to buy electric vehicles in the first place. You know, it is such a huge change of

mindset for the consumer, right? From the way most of us grew up, grew up in the 20th century,

you know, you had a car, you filled it up at the gas station, there's one on every corner,

it seems like, you never are very far from being able to refill. And so now you've got a new technology,

you don't necessarily have the confidence about how much range it has, depending on the weather,

depending on how you drive, and just an unfamiliarity with that. And then when you throw in the

complication that charging the batteries, which is sort of refueling, can take a long time,

you don't know where to find it, you don't know if it's going to work, it's just a lot of anxiety

for consumers to overcome, especially with a product that typically costs 10% or more than

the old fashioned technology that they're used to. It is just a complete lifestyle change. Like,

if you are driving, you know, the vehicles were used to a gas powered vehicle,

you don't have to think before you get in the car. Even if you're out of gas,

you know you're going to find a gas station with gas, like within 10 minutes. So you don't have to

do much thinking. When you drive an EV, you have to plan out your whole route, and just hope that

the charger is working and hope that there's not a line, so you can get to your destination on time.

And then also consider the weather. Is it freezing cold outside? Is my range going to be less than

it was advertised to be? Right. And in terms of that, convincing people to buy these vehicles and

also to, as you said, change their lifestyle in some way, you know, we're seeing just recently

really this unexpected slowdown in EV growth. Now, that doesn't mean that EV sales, you know,

in general, are down. It's just that they're not growing quite as fast as some people had hoped

for. And that has some people nervous. I'm curious what you both think. Is this a long-term concern,

or do you think it's a short-term blip that we're going to get past?

It feels to me much more like a blip. I think it's possible if you're a policymaker, if you're an

investor. Even if you're somebody in one of the companies, you might have a little crisis of

confidence that Americans aren't ready, that the market isn't ready. And certainly, if these cars

that are on the road today are all that we were ever going to have, we would not be getting to 50%

or 40% EV adoption. But we know there are a lot more and better cars that are coming. We know

that the charging networks are getting built out. So I think this is just part of a long curve. But

it's a bit of a gut check after a couple years of really robust growth, 50%, 70%, 80%, 100% growth,

to now be looking at just kind of ticking along at 7% market share, maybe 8% that passed to 10%.

And then when we're starting to really get into the mass market, it's the tough slog right now.

And it was about just under 8%, I believe, was the market share. So it's still pretty small.

But it shows that we've already gotten through the early adopters. It's big enough that we've gotten

through the early adopters. So now, the industry is trying to market and sell to buyers that were

not jumping on the wagon right away. There's more selling to be done now, which takes a lot of effort

from multiple groups, from the automakers, from the dealers, et cetera. So that is one thing, I

think, that maybe is slowing the growth. There's a new effort involved. Also, there's been a lot

of talk about affordable EVs, but we aren't really seeing any yet. So once there are more

affordable EVs out there that people can buy, maybe we'll see some upward growth.

We already talked about infrastructure and charging. And maybe that's the answer. But

I'm curious what you both think are the biggest consumer hangups on EVs that are the most concerning

for that longer-term adoption. Jamie, do you have one or two that you think are going to be the

biggest hurdles? I mean, price, right? I mean, it's the vehicle and the charging. And so then,

how we break it down, I mean, it's the price, but it's also the right fit. The vehicle that's big

enough for a given family and doesn't maybe add a bunch of extra cost by having range that you

don't need. But then the second thing that is right there with it, whether you consider it

range anxiety, or I think a lot of us now call it more charger anxiety or charging anxiety,

that concern that we've been discussing about, can I get where I need to go in the timely manner

and get home safely? Those are the big hangups. It's the price and the charging availability.

I mean, price, I think, is number one. Most buyers are monthly payment buyers. They look

at what their payment's going to be and that helps them decide. But I think to put it in

one word or a couple of words, it's really confidence. You need to be confident in going

out on the road. And if you have charger anxiety, you don't know if you'll find one or if it will

work for you. And you don't know if you have time to charge because at the fast chargers,

it's 30 minutes, but that's the best case scenario. So, charger anxiety, range anxiety,

safety, there's been lots of reports about UV fires. That all goes to lack of confidence.

So, I think the price and the lack of confidence are really what's standing in the way.

So, I think the last observation that I have from doing all of this and talking to the people that

we've talked to is about how none of this happens in a vacuum, that the auto industry can't really

solve all of its own carbon emissions problems without big help from the outside, whether it's

utilities who are still working on greening the grid or consumers who are still deciding whether

or not they're on board with full tilt into electrification, mineral suppliers. It seems

to me like a lot of the things that are going to happen in the next 10, 20 years, the industry

itself is going to need a lot of help. The government, one that we already mentioned. Hannah,

what are your thoughts on the things that might not be in automakers control here that are going

to be maybe the biggest factors? Yeah, I think this will be really exciting to watch. I'm excited

to cover it. The utility companies have such a big opportunity here. I can't predict exactly how

they're going to take advantage of this if they're going to be the educators for consumers when they

buy EVs, how they're going to expand energy to support all these EVs. They could have a really

big presence as a big public presence in this. And then when it comes to the mineral supply,

when I cover batteries, I'm just like, I wish I was a scientist or a chemist. I just wish I

understood this more easily because it's so complicated and there's so many different

chemistries to power a battery and so many variations in the minerals and materials that

people use to make batteries. So the miners and the mineral companies, there's going to be a lot

of fluctuation there. The automakers and battery makers are looking at different types of materials

for better energy density and to bring costs down. So there'll be a lot to keep track of

and once we have a solution that we think is the one, we'll probably have another one around the

corner. So it's really all hands on deck and it'll be very cool. I'm excited. Like Hannah,

I'm going to be fascinated to see how it all unfolds. I think what we're seeing right now

is the automakers really getting involved in parts of the economy they haven't had to do before.

They didn't put gas pumps in your home, but a lot of dealers are being asked to help consumers

figure out how to put a charger in their garage. We saw it with Tesla as they tried to create

this EV market and I think we're seeing it from especially General Motors, but I think some companies

are a little more obvious in how they're planning ahead to ensure all the pieces are where they

need to be. That there is the mining going on, that there's the refining, that there's

recycling that's going to be in the right locations. Now maybe they invest to get this all

up and running and then sell it off and get it back out to other people who are real experts

in that field, but they're not leaving it to chance. They're not just waiting and hoping

some other industry or the government is going to take care of their problems for them because

of course the demand is so huge and if you're a General Motors or a Toyota or a Volkswagen,

it's just too, you can't let your whole business be left to other people's visions.

Hannah Lutz, Automotive News electrification reporter and Jamie Butters, Automotive News

executive editor. It's been so wonderful to have people much smarter than me along for the ride

throughout this entire journey. I really appreciate all of your insights. Thanks for joining us.

Thank you. Glad to do it, Jake. Before we put a bow on it, we've talked with dozens of people

for this podcast series and asked many of them to talk about the stakes of this transition.

We've spoken with environmentalists, industry leaders, analysts, government officials,

reporters, tech innovators. None of them have offered an answer that had an impact quite like

the person who kicked off this episode, the UNFCCCC's Paramal Arumagam. His thoughts on why

you, dear listener, should take any action you have the power to take will stick with me for a

long time. He started by addressing business leaders directly. The business profits and

benefits can only be achievable if you have a congenial environment in the society to live in

and the effects of climate change can really bring imbalance in terms of climate migration,

for example, human migration, which can also be detrimental for the business growth. Every

investment that you are doing today, like we talked about billion dollars of investments,

if you do not adapt today to the cost and the effect of the climate change,

all your investments can be washed away. But even if you don't quite fall into that category

or if that argument falls short for you, he said there's an even more basic, more existential,

more human reason to simply do what you can. Your mere existence is in question,

and then whatever that you are making choices today, every irresponsible way of you emitting

today, you are taking away a day from your future generation of your own kittenkin.

This has been Driving to Zero, the auto industry's roadmap to carbon neutrality.

Thank you so much for joining me along this ride. I hope it's provided you some insights

and shown light on something new for you. If you enjoyed this podcast and want to learn more

about the auto industry's ride into a greener future, I highly recommend checking out our

Daily Auto Industry News podcast, Daily Drive, that's hosted by Jamie Butters, who you heard on

this and every episode of this series, as well as my colleague, Kellen Walker. And also check out

our weekly podcast, Shift, a podcast about mobility. Host Pete Bigelow talks with some of the people

who are leading the way on technology and innovation in the auto industry, and they hit on many of

the subjects that we've covered here in even greater detail. And of course, consider subscribing

to Automotive News, where the paper of record for the auto industry, and there you can find

incredible reporting from journalists that you've heard here, including Hannah Lutz,

Michael Martinez, Lindsey Van Holy, Hans Grimel, and Audre La Forest. You can find all of their

reporting at AutoNews.com or on the pages of our weekly print edition of Automotive News.

All of the original music and sound design that you heard here was done by the incredible,

the one and only Sam Bobian. We got additional help along the way from Kellen Walker, Alicia

Anderson, Victor Galvan, Tim Wreck, Jack Halauer, Marissa Marcinkowski, and Dean Storm.

I'm Jake Neer. Thanks again, and hope to talk soon.

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