Percent means out of 100. So if something is 1 percent, it means 1 out of every 100. It's a way to show how much something changes or costs compared to the whole.
The used car market is where people buy and sell cars that have been owned before. How well this market does can change based on how much cars lose value over time.
A month is a period of time that lasts about 30 days. It's often used to talk about how things change over time, like how much a car's value goes down each month.
Wholesale is when cars are sold in bulk, usually to dealerships or other businesses, rather than to regular buyers. It often involves lower prices than retail sales.
A used car dealer is someone who sells cars that have been owned by someone else before. They buy these cars and sell them to people looking for a vehicle, usually at a higher price than they paid.
Appraised values are how much a car is estimated to be worth. Dealerships use this to decide how much to pay for a used car or how much to sell it for.
Used car managers are the people at car dealerships who handle the buying and selling of used cars. They decide how much to pay for cars and how much to sell them for.
Inflated values mean that the prices of cars are higher than what they should be based on their true worth. This can happen when there are more buyers than cars available, but if things change, those prices might drop.
Financing is when you borrow money to buy a car and pay it back over time, usually with extra money added as interest. This can make the car more expensive in the long run.
A floor plan is like a loan for car dealerships to buy cars. They don't pay cash upfront; instead, they borrow money to buy the cars and pay it back when they sell them.
The Chevrolet Traverse is a large SUV that can fit a lot of passengers and cargo. The LS is the basic version, which means it has the necessary features but not many extras.
A high mileage car is one that has been driven a lot, usually more than most cars. This can mean it might need more repairs and could be worth less when sold.
The cost of carrying a vehicle is how much it costs to own a car, including things like insurance and repairs. If these costs go up, it can be harder to keep an older car.
A service loaner is a car that a dealership gives you to drive while your own car is being fixed. These cars are usually in good shape and not driven much.
Replacement parts are the pieces that you put in a car when something breaks or wears out. If these parts cost a lot, it can make insurance more expensive.
Gas-powered vehicles are cars that use gasoline to run. They are the most common type of cars before electric ones became popular.
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From all of us at Believe, have a merry Christmas, everyone, and a happy holiday.
It's noon here in Ventner City, New Jersey, and our nation's capital, Washington, D.C.,
and this is Courage Live for Wednesday, November 12th.
With your hosts, me, Ray, here, sitting, freezing my ass off in Ventner City,
and Zach, well, doing some Market Mazda, it appears.
How are you today, handsome? And so good to see you again.
Good to be back, folks. Happy Wednesday, November 12th to you.
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Now, Dad, the big story this morning, the used car market is screwed.
Now, two different data sets we're going to look at.
First things first, the latest and greatest data from Blackbook,
which tells the story of what's happening in the wholesale used car market.
Wholesale meaning where dealers procure their inventory.
They buy it for some of their inventory.
Yep, non-traden inventory.
We are seeing the steepest week over week declines in used vehicle values that we've seen in years.
We are seeing a precipitous drop-off.
That's what this line is showing you in used car values at the dealer auction.
So we're going to talk about that.
And we have an entire update from the folks over at Edmunds,
a Q3 Insights report from the folks over at Edmunds,
showing that used cars are sitting on dealer lots longer
than they have been in recent history.
Two really important data pieces we're going to look at today.
But let's just start here, Dad, the Blackbook data.
You have depreciation week over week of over a percent.
You sold cars for 40 plus years.
Help our audience, help our community understand why that means the used car market is screwed.
Cars don't typically depreciate that much, do they?
Typically, no. Typically, they depreciate, I don't know,
one and a half to maybe 2% in a month, not over 1% in a week.
If that continues, and last week was similar to this week as well,
because last week, I think it was over 1%, that would be 4% a month.
And that's huge.
Now, why is that a big deal?
Well, that means the value of the used car inventory that is presently sitting on dealer
lots is losing value more quickly.
What they bought six weeks ago, four weeks ago, eight weeks ago,
they paid way more for then than what they could get for it if they needed to wholesale it today.
So if there is something that they spent, say, $10,000 on four weeks ago,
and then they spent a few hundred dollars in reconditioning and getting it ready for the lot,
let's say they spent 800 bucks, and so they have $10,800 in it.
And it's lost 2% of its value just in the past two weeks.
So you're looking at that $10,000 car is now a $9,800 or $9,600 car,
but you also have that other 800 that you spent.
Suddenly, you have somewhere between a $12,000 and $1,000 loss in value of that vehicle,
which means that their inventory on the lot is underwater,
which is not where you want your inventory to be unless you're on the Titanic.
You're onto something there, pops.
And that's what we're seeing is those vehicles are losing their value precipitously
while at the same time Edmund shows it sitting for longer.
Hey, one comment before we get too far there, too much further into today's show.
We have allowed now, folks, that you can watch on mobile or on desktop.
So there are two streams over on the CarHedge Live channel,
one for mobile with the little phone icon and one that does not have it.
So for those of you that are having an experience that you do not like today,
please just go to the channel and click on the other stream.
Again, there are two different formats for today's show.
So sorry for any of the confusion there.
I'm seeing some chats coming through.
So I just want to call that out.
But dad, cars losing value more quickly, 4% a month is unprecedented.
And sitting for longer, that's a recipe for disaster if I'm a used car dealer,
because it means the value of my inventory is going down,
but there are fewer people buying them.
We'll do a live example here on the CarHedge CarSearch in just a few minutes,
but that's a recipe for disaster and that's actually a good thing for potential shoppers.
Ultimately, it should be a good thing for potential shoppers.
But more so for potential shoppers that don't have a trade in.
Yeah, let's talk about that.
What is the impact on trade in valuations here?
It means they're probably not going up, right?
Oh, I can assure you they're going down.
If the wholesale values at the auction are dropping at the rates that they've been dropping at,
then the appraised values that dealerships will hit the vehicles at
will be dropping even faster than the declines we've seen at the auction.
If they're down 2.5% in the last two weeks,
that would indicate to me that most used car managers I know,
they would be looking at their numbers and they'd be probably lowering their appraisals by 5 or 10
because they're going to be anticipating the amount of money that they have to spend to
recondition it, the fact that it's taking longer to turn vehicles.
So they're looking at it as, well, I have to be prepared to hope that I'm still even,
hopefully not underwater 30 days from now, if it's going to take me somewhere between 30 and
40 days to sell the vehicle. So used car managers are adjusting what they're willing to pay for cars
now and they're adjusting the numbers lower much more rapidly than the wholesale declines we've seen.
So there's two big stories here.
One is if you're in the market to buy a used car, dealers are screwed at the moment.
They do not have the off-ramp that we've always described it as,
I can just go sell this used car at an inflated value to another dealer at the auction.
That's what dealers have been doing for the past few years because they could just sell the vehicle
for a heck of a lot of money at the wholesale dealer auctions.
All the data we have shows that at the wholesale level, these dealers are getting pounded in terms
of valuations dropping over a percent each week for the past two weeks. That is unprecedented.
The other story here would then be, what is that my vehicle actually worth for those of you that do
not already have your vehicle in the car edge garage? You should. You're able to track vehicle
values back there at caredge.com. Just click on your little icon up here in the top right and
add your vehicle to the garage. That vehicle you might consider selling that to your point is going
down in value. Let's come back here though and let's talk a little bit about some of the time to turn
data that Edmunds has that factors into this. Then let's go to the car edge search and let's
find some vehicles. Let's identify some vehicles and see if we can see dealers lowering prices
or any of the games that they might be playing to try and move this inventory.
The average transaction price for three-year-old vehicle stat was up to $31,067 in Q3 of 2025,
up 5% year over year. A little bit of this conversation can be around,
are newer used cars a better value than new cars or do you take the new one instead? We
continue to think that new cars are a better value than newer used cars, even as we're starting to
see some depreciation. This data from Edmunds backs that up a little bit because newer used
cars, three-year-old used cars are up 5% year over year in terms of their price. Interestingly,
Dad, maybe that trend will start to change because price increases have come with a noticeable uptick
in lot times, rising from 37 days on the lot in Q3 of 2024 to 41 days in Q3 of 2025, the slowest
third quarter pace since 2017. In almost the past decade, Dad, these used cars are selling the
slowest that they ever have. That is a huge storyline for would-be shoppers.
Well, it's a huge storyline and I think there are any number of reasons for it. One of the main
reasons for it is that wages haven't kept up with inflation over many decades.
As rent has gone up, as groceries have gone up, as maintenance for automobiles has gone up, as
insurance, both for homes and autos and everything else has continued to go up,
more and more people are stretched, well probably in this case beyond their means than we've seen
in quite some time. Student loans are expected to be repaid again. There have been a tremendous
number of job losses and just, well, government furloughs where we've had federal government
employees who haven't been paid for a month and a half. That impacts everything. It's making it
more difficult to have more people in the market to buy cars when there are actually fewer people
who can actually afford them. Again, the implication is then as a dealer, I have carrying cost and
inventory sitting for longer. We understand how we got into the position that we're in.
Let's talk a little bit about the implication for dealers. Explain that carrying cost phenomena
and explain why that gives leverage to customers. As the time to sell or as the days on lot increases,
if I'm a used car shopper in today's market, why do I have more leverage today than I did dating
back all the way to 2017? Help us understand that phenomena. With the data that is readily
available for people, especially the data that we make readily available for people,
it is relatively easy for a potential buyer to be in the dealership and say, listen, I understand
that wholesale values are dropping precipitously. I also understand that it is taking longer for
you to sell the cars that you have, which would seem to indicate to me that the value of the cars
that you are selling are inflated in comparison to what it would take to replace it. I understand
that it costs you money to have the vehicle sit in a lot because you didn't pay cash for this,
you're financing it yourself. With all these things stacked against the dealer, I believe
an informed customer can make a good case for why the dealer should be willing to,
I don't know, work on the price of the vehicle that the customer is looking at.
Double down debt on floor plan. Take a step by step. I'm a used car dealer. I do not pay cash for
my inventory. The amount of time it's taking me to turn over and sell my inventories going up.
Why am I more willing? I'm going to pull up this comment from Stephen here. These used
Silverado truck prices here in North Carolina may be dropping, but by a few hundred here and there,
not by thousands. People are still snatching up the good ones for more than they should pay,
but at least dropping by hundreds, maybe not thousands. Why as a dealer, dad, am I starting
to discount my inventory? Help us understand that. Really, really explain it. The difference between
when a dealership buys their new car inventory and used car inventory, both are typically floor
plan. What does that mean? It means that there's a line of credit that the dealership is using to
pay for their inventory, both new and used. Now, the difference on the new car side is the manufacturers
will cover the cost of that interest that is accruing on that borrowed money for 15 days,
30 days, 45 days, depending on the manufacturer. On the used car side of things, the interest
is accruing from the moment that you utilize that line of credit. Every day that car sits there,
interest charges are building up. Well, the longer the car sits, the more interest the dealer has to
pay to keep that vehicle on the lot. He's sitting on inventory that is presently underwater because
what he paid for it is significantly less than what he could replace it for today.
He has the expense of reconditioning and advertising to sell the vehicle,
plus he has the expense of daily interest accruing on that car. Every day, his position is getting
worse, not better. If you realize that the value of the commodity you're selling is less today and
will be even less tomorrow, then rather than face tomorrow, try and figure out a way to sell it today
before the value continues to decline because your costs have gone up in it. Drinking and driving is
a decision that will change your whole world. Things will never be the same once you get a DUI
because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way your
world could be irreversibly changed after drinking and driving. Your vehicle may not be the only
thing that gets damaged in that crash. You could face a life-altering injury or even death, but
you're not the only one who could face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive
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This isn't just a game. It's a once-in-a-generation event. The Harlem Globetrotter's 100-year tour.
Celebrate 100 years of high-flying dunks, 100 years of showstopping moves, and 100 years of
changing the game. Bring the whole family and be part of the legacy. This game is once in a century.
Be there at American Airlines Center on February 15th. Go to HarlemGlobetrotters.com for your tickets
to the 100-year tour. Now, let's look at some examples of this. I went over to the car edge,
car search folks, and I did a few things. First things first, we're searching for
used vehicles. I want to look at price histories for used vehicles. You can see that over here on
the left condition. Use. The next thing I did down is I scrolled down. Let me do this really
only once to look at vehicles that are 90 to 200 days, meaning dealers have had these vehicles
advertised for sale on their website for 90 to 200 days. Again, a friendly reminder,
if you are just tuning in here right now and the orientation looks a little bit off,
there are two streams on today's channel. There is the use car market is screwed with a phone
emoji, and the use car market is screwed without the phone emoji. If you are on your laptop,
if you're on your desktop, click on the one without the phone emoji. If you're on your phone,
use the one with the phone emoji. That's why you're getting the different
orientation. I've got 90 to 200 days on the market, Dad. I've gone ahead and I've clicked
on a few of these vehicles. Let's look at this one right here. A 2022 Chevrolet Traverse LS.
This dealership, Dad, has been sitting on this vehicle for 96 days. Now, a few things I'm noticing
right off the bat here. 96 days. The other thing I'm noticing is the stock number ends in the letter
A. That tells me that this was a trade-in most likely, that this dealership traded in
this vehicle from a customer. If I scroll down a little bit further here, I get the price history.
I'm going to orient this as a little bit of a list here. They listed this vehicle for sale
back in August. You can see it right there, August 29th, with a $21,590 price point.
Look at the current advertised price, $16,995. This is exactly what we anticipate seeing more
and more of because to your point earlier, Dad, the dealers paying that floor plan cost,
it's not getting cheaper for them to hold on to this vehicle. Again, they don't have the off ramp.
They don't have the off switch, which is, okay, I'm just going to take it to the dealer auction
and sell it for more money because at the dealer auction week over week, prices are dropping by
1%. What a perfect example of why now is a buyer's market more than ever before for the used car
market. There was one other important piece of information at the top of that screen that you
missed, which was the fact that it has 76,000 miles on it. It's a high mileage car. The average
miles driven were over 25,000 miles a year when the average in the United States is a little under
15,000. It has over 30,000 more miles on it than it should. It's been sitting. The cost of carrying
that vehicle is continuing to climb. My suspicion is that they are so significantly underwater on
this vehicle based on probably what you can buy its replacement for with the same type of miles.
Yeah, this dealer should be highly motivated to sell that vehicle. There is probably a major
spiff or bonus for the sales staff at that dealership so that whoever sells it might be
guaranteed a $500 minimum commission or maybe even a $1,000 minimum commission.
Think about it. Let's say you're underwater on that vehicle since you've had it for 90 days.
Let's say you're underwater $1,500. Let's say you have to spend another $500 guarantee to sell it.
That's a $2,000 loss when everything is all said and done. The idea behind trading vehicles or
buying vehicles is to turn around and turn a profit, not a $2,000 loss.
And, Dad, think about it. If the prices go down another percent next week at the auctions, it's
just even more of a ramification for why I need to be more aggressive at my dealership to sell
the vehicle. I just keep getting more underwater, which is typically what we talk about for customers.
You're talking about the dealership being underwater, the same thing.
See, what most people don't realize is that dealers and customers are similar when it comes to
values of their vehicles. If the wholesale auction prices go down dramatically, that negatively
impacts the dealership just like it negatively impacts a customer. Just like it negatively
impacts you as an individual. You are both facing the same dilemma, and the dilemma is that
for an individual, the value of your vehicle has gone down, and for a dealership,
the value of your entire inventory is dropping. It is one thing if you have one car and it's lost
three, four, five percent over the past four or five weeks. It is an entirely different thing
if you have a million dollars worth of cars that have lost three, four, five percent over the last
three or four weeks. That is a much more significant number and can be very telling. I mean, I know
of situations where used car managers have been fired, a new used car manager comes in, takes a
look at the inventory that they have, and realizes that maybe the inventory they have is overvalued
or overpaid for by $200, $300, $400,000. As the new used car manager, you have to figure out
how to get out from under that with the smallest loss you can manage as opposed to the biggest
loss that you can manage. It's a tough situation for both customers and dealerships at the moment.
It really is. Here's another example I'll pull up on the screen. 2024 Mazda Mazda 3. This is a
relatively new used vehicle. Now, dad, this dealership, I'll scroll down here, has had this
vehicle for 125 days. Now, it has way fewer miles, 7,950 miles, but this is a used vehicle
they've been trying to sell for over four months. On the stock number here, there's no A at the end
of it. It leads me to think that it's not a trade-in. This is a vehicle that they most likely
purchased from the auction, and now they're trying to retail and sell to a customer.
My suspicion of 7,950 miles on it would be that perhaps it's a retired service loaner.
That's also an option. Absolutely. Now, if I come down to the price history pops,
we're going to view it in this little line. Let's go all the way back. I mean, here,
we'll just start back in August right there. Look at this price history. There was a period in time
where newer used vehicles, dealers were trying to ultimately sell them for pretty much what the
original MSRP was when it was brand new. Look at this price history chart. I mean, this is ridiculous
in just a few months. The price of this used vehicle has gone down by 30 plus percent.
I mean, this is astronomical in terms of how aggressive this dealer is trying to be
to try and move these vehicles out. Can I say one thing? Please.
This is a prime example of how aggressive this dealer has been from day one. What do I mean by
that? Well, on August 29th, when they were asking $37,960 for that car, that was probably so
significantly overpriced for what it was, so that they were trying to be excessively greedy
at the price point they were hoping to sell it for. Now, they had to have a come to Jesus moment
where they go, okay, we have to get a tad bit more realistic if we hope to sell that vehicle.
And you look at it and you go, well, there's been a 30% price decrease. And I look at it as,
I don't know, they're suddenly trying to get in touch with reality and it's probably still over
priced at $28,798. For sure. And the trend is the trend, which is these dealers have more pressure
on them. The used car market is screwing them when in the past it's actually been supporting them
making more money. That's a perfect example of both probably greed on the front end.
When they first listed it, but also the trend of used car prices are going down
and it's having an impact. Now, Dad, let's come here to the chat. We had a contribution earlier
in the show from our dear friend, Just a Cinnamon Bun. Love seeing Just a Cinnamon Bun. Hey, Zach,
check your email, both CarEdge and Zach at chefska.com emails. If you still want to learn how to
drive a stick shift, by the way, I miss Pops's stories about when he was in the rubber vending
machine business. Forgive me, Pops. Let's keep moving. We'll come back to the condom stories
in about five minutes because, yes, Igor here has a great comment that I really want to tie
into the used car story. At least a little bit. Repos are growing too. The auction I was at today
has 11 lanes and today they had five fully for repossessed vehicles. Usually they're only using
three for repos. That's a bad sign showing the poor economy. So we also know that there's an
influx of inventory coming into the used car market as a result of more repossessed vehicles.
I simply wanted to pull that up before we maybe go too far down the prophylactic
lane. I didn't know there was a prophylactic lane, but yes, truth be told, my father, my
dear father, was originally a dentist and he went from dentistry into the vending machine
business and primarily we vended prophylactics. So as I like to say, my father went from capping
teeth to capping other parts of the anatomy, but either way he was always doing his best to
bring a smile to somebody's face. So yeah, I spent my youth always being surrounded by
condoms and other items that probably no 8, 10, 12, 13, 14 year old boy should be familiar with,
but well, I was. Now, after a condom story comes the protection you need, which is the car edge
car vine service. Check it out back at caredge.com slash concierge. Currently $150 off for this
for the limited time only. And the reason I bring it up in the context of today's show is a few
things. One is you can start with a free consultation. So if you have not booked a free
consultation with our team, please do it. Learn more if this is a good fit. And secondarily,
dad, because our concierge team, there are some experts on this team that specifically
work on used vehicles. For example, I'm looking at Stuart here or Josh will click on Stuart
for just a moment. The reason I'm clicking on Stuart is he saved car edge customers over his
16 deals with us $48,400. Josh, for example, dad, over his 98 deals have helped car edge
community members save a cumulative $405,000 from the first outdoor price at a dealership
to the last outdoor price. Congratulations, Josh. I'm not good at the unused vehicles as well.
I'm not good at math, but that has to average up to a little over $4,000 savings per deal.
26 years of experience pays for itself. So that's fantastic. So anyway, I bring this up
because there are folks on our team who specialize in used vehicles and would love to help you as
the market continues to turn. One more comment here, dad, from David. Should the price of
insurance drop as car values decline? Sadly, we've seen insurance premiums go up
more and more and more. We also have, I'll pull it up on the screen one more time,
back at caredge.com up in the top of our menu, an insurance tab where you can compare car insurance
quotes and save. But unfortunately, dad, even as used car values decline a little bit,
we don't anticipate seeing insurance premiums drop precipitously. Do we?
No. And the reason for that is the cost of repairs and replacement parts has gone up.
So even as the wholesale values of cars go down to a degree, if they were to be involved
in accidents, the cost of those replacement parts have significantly increased. And I'm pretty sure
that cost is what insurance companies are looking at when they come up with their premiums.
Yeah. So unfortunately, just because the used car values go down, I don't think we anticipate
seeing used, seeing insurance premiums go down at all. Like, insurance prices are probably just
going to keep ticking up. I feel like every six months, everyone should be shopping their car
insurance because it's an opportunity to save potentially. Yes, absolutely.
Okay, pups. Well, that's what I had for today's show. So again, if we can help you out with
anything, caredge.com. I think the discussion today around what's going on in the used car
market resonates really well with me. The story, the theme continues to be buyer's market for new
vehicles and becoming a buyer's market for used vehicles as well. Go for it.
Maybe we address one thing on the used car side of things. And that is, there appears to be
good values to be had on used EVs. There is a list on that Edmunds study, a list of the fastest
selling used cars. And if you go by that list, you will see that the best selling used cars that
are selling the quickest are EVs and that they are significantly more depreciated in values
from when they were new than gas equivalents. So if you are a value conscious buyer and you want
to be able to get the best value for your dollar, right now that would be in pre-owned EVs. That
is where you can look to find the best value today on pre-owned cars. Now, here's the dilemma with
that. Most places that you're going to be able to find those pre-owned cars, the dealership
personnel probably have absolutely no clue as to anything about EVs and how they work. But if you
can get around that, if you can find the expertise that's needed to make sure that the battery is
in good condition and this and that, that could be the way to go because A, it's less expensive than
gas-powered or diesel-powered vehicles. B, they'll be less costly to fuel and less costly to maintain
moving forward. Love that, Dad. Thank you so much for bringing that up. And I guess it'd be remiss to
not share why I wasn't here yesterday, Dad. I was driving back from Red River Gorge in Kentucky. So
for anyone that's interested... Not Red River Gorge. Yeah. So for anyone that's interested in
rock climbing, what an incredible place to do it. I'll share just briefly here. I'll pull it up on
the screen. This is the route I was working on yesterday, Dad. Feeling nice and strong. What do
you think? What do you make of this, Pops? I think you should have your head examined. But that's
just me. After all, you are the CEO of a tech startup. So personally, I think bowling is a
better option. But what the hell do I know? All right, folks. We'll be back tomorrow with more Car
Edge Live. Dad, enjoy the afternoon. Thanks as always. And folks, appreciate you tuning in. We'll
see if the other format we keep doing this, the vertical and the landscape. Again, there's two
options. So sorry for any headache we caused. See you tomorrow, Pops. Much love.
Yeah. Love you too, handsome. Thank you, everybody, for being here. It's good to be back.
This isn't just a game. It's a once in a generation event.
The Harlem Globetrotters 100-Year Tour. Celebrate 100 years of high-flying dunks,
100 years of showstopping moves, and 100 years of changing the game. Bring the whole family and
be part of the legacy. This game is once in a century. Be there at American Airlines Center
on February 15th. Go to HarlemGlobetrotters.com for your tickets to the 100-Year Tour.
Looking for the ultimate car talk? Buckle up for Car Cast, the podcast that blends
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About this episode
The used car market is facing unprecedented challenges, with values plummeting at a rate of over 1% weekly, leading to significant depreciation. Dealers are struggling as vehicles sit on lots longer, creating a buyer's market. Insights from Blackbook and Edmunds reveal that used cars are losing value faster than ever, affecting trade-in valuations. The episode discusses the implications for both dealers and buyers, highlighting the importance of informed negotiations for potential shoppers. Additionally, the rise in repossessions adds further pressure to the market, making it a critical time for buyers to capitalize on declining prices.
Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data on used car prices. Tune in to learn more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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