0:00
/
0:00
Through the Gears: NASCAR Betting Odds at Bristol
Through the Gears: NASCAR Betting Odds at Bristol
Frontstretch Podcast Network
Apr 11, 2026
0:00
0:00
0:00
0:00
About this episode
Bristol betting talk centers on how new tires and the 750-hp package could shape a race that might be either a tire-wear grind or a more open, passing-friendly event. Denny Hamlin remains the key favorite after Martinsville speed, with Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch/chevy momentum discussed. The hosts also dig into value plays for top-10s and longshots, highlighting Ty Gibbs, Daniel Suarez, Shane van Gisbergen, Carson Hocevar, and Josh Berry/Austin Cindric props. Weather (warm, overcast) and recent form over Bristol history drive the card-building approach.
Topics:
bristol betting odds
new tires impact
750 horsepower package
hamlin vs larson favorites
chevy momentum after phoenix
ty gibbs top-5 value
shane van gisbergen top-10 longshot
carson hocevar 25-to-1
chase elliott and william byron value debate
bubba wallace bounce-back concerns
Cars:
Ford Edge
How will the track conditions and changes affect our betting cards at Bristol?
Filter:
|
Technical
Too Afraid to Ask
Car
Ford Edge
"... am. I think they've shown enough pace to kind of edge into the end of the top 10 and having plus 260 od..."
Select text to request an explanation
Howdy, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Through the Years. We get you set for Bristol,
the day race there, the first of two at the fastest half mile in NASCAR, just over half
a mile in length. But we almost scored at Martinsville on the paper clip with Denny Hamlin. He was dominant
all day, and someone we were kind of having our eye on, Chase Elliott, from the Chevy Camp, he
gets the job done. It was like, what, seven or nine to one in that weekend. And now we go into
Bristol, maybe Hendrick Motorsports and that Chevy team might actually be having a little bit
of momentum going into that race. But Denny Hamlin, no doubt, still a guy we're going to be
watching this week. We'll have Trenton Warsham on the show today. He'll be at Bristol this weekend
covering all that's going on and taking place in Bristol for the weekend. And excited to have
him back on the show. Once again, had a great conversation about what we're thinking going
into this weekend. So without further ado, new tires as well for this week. And also
a lot of different varying scenarios could be taking place with the 750 horsepower package just
well. We go through it all in this. So kick back and enjoy the ride and start locking in your
bets this week here at Bristol as we go through the gears. Joining me now for the first time
this year and he'll be at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. That is Trenton Warsham. Glad to
have you back on the show and especially for a track you're going to be at. And it's Bristol, baby.
Hopefully it is Bristol, baby. Hopefully the tire wearers,
hopefully the tires wear and we get some old school Bristol and not just a parade for 500 miles.
Yeah, that's something that's something good to mention because the tires that they're bringing
into Bristol apparently are going to be new. And I'm not sure how to think about it. Obviously
the 750 horsepower package will come to play here at Bristol. And it's kind of hit at Phoenix,
which was that was a great race there. But it kind of felt like a miss at Marnsville. It didn't
really move the needle as much as I was hoping for there. I mean, Denny Hamlin big was really
fast there led the most laps almost and swept the first two stages, but it was Chase Elliott at the
end of that strong track for Chase Elliott. And hey, Chevy finally breaks out for the first
win there. But the focus here on Bristol has always been the temperature and what kind of
race are we going to get if Kyle Arson seems to be good when it comes to one of these
traditional like 200 laps of tire race here at Bristol? What do you think in going into this race,
at least on those ends you mentioned you mentioned both of those being a factor here, Tratton?
Yeah, I think the two guys I'm looking at. You have to look at the last few years of Bristol
and Denny Hamlin and Kyle Arson. So I think those two guys are going to be the main factors.
I know Toyota overall is really, really good. I mean, you can't really deny Reddick right now
with the seasons he's had. 2311's bringing some fast cars. So I have a feeling Tyler Reddick's
going to be in the mix some. I think before we got going here, you mentioned Ty Gibbs. He's been
cranking out the top fives this year, some top tens. And so I think Toyota's going to be
really fast, but I wouldn't be surprised if like Kyle Arson carries the banner for Chevrolet this
week. You mentioned Tyler Reddick. And actually what's interesting is, I mean Tyler Reddick's
track record on short ovals, not really good. I mean, he did have a, I mean, for his standards,
a little better of an average, like above his average at Martinsville. And he's,
he's been up, the only time he's been up front from what I remember at Bristol is that he
stayed out and it ended up wrecking from the front of the field in that first tire.
Does Bristol dirt count? Cause he was in a condition for that Bristol dirt race.
I would love to go back to the Bristol dirt archives, but man he's, it's just, it's just
not the same. It's not, like Chase Brisco and Chase Brisco, Tyler Reddick. I'm sure even
Kyle Bush would love, Joey Logano even would love Bristol dirt. All those guys that are like
fishing around 30 to 150 to one, Lord have mercy. But yeah, stick, stick with everyone up front.
I mean, Ty Gibbs, nine to one, I think is very, it's not surprising because of his track record
here at Bristol. And like, whether it's tires or whether it's a long stand of a run,
I mean, nine to one is, I mean, is it fair? I would like to see more of his opening odd at 14 to one
for him because, you know, he's never won a race and he's fighting the likes of Kyle Larson and
Diddy Hamlin for this one. I think his odds should be a little longer, but I do, I am looking at
his props because we have, we have to, at this point, he's on a, he's on a hot streak
getting top vibes. You can look at his top three even here at Bristol. I think that's
fair. I like his teammate Christopher Belmore because at least he did win that race in the
Bristol night race. He did win that last year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he kind of came out of nowhere
though, at least when it came, when it comes to that, if we get the, it's the tail of two
tapes when it comes to Bristol, it's either we're going to get like that tire kind of race
and we can't even bank on that honestly with again, the new tires with it being pretty hot.
I think I'd lean more on this is going to be a very tame Bristol. They're going to put the whatever
resin PJ one, whatever you call on the bottom group to make it sticky and it's going to wear
out over time because it's going to be, I think the rubber is going to get on, on the track
and we're going to get two lane Bristol and who knows how I'm, I'm going to say the big
trump card here will be the 750 horsepower package because I think it's, I think that'll
open up a little bit of more passing kind of like we saw at a Phoenix. I'm a little bit more,
I want to carry more optimism into that and hopefully that will turn the needle for Bristol
here and maybe if, if we get a good product with 750 and who knows, 950 in the future.
I mean, that's like for racing product in general, but for betting wise, it's you got to play,
I feel like you got to play more with the safer options. There are, there's still options way
down the list here and into the, the 13 to ones, even the 20 to one territory that we can still
look at. One of those guys for me is the guy who just won last week at Chase Elliott. I mean,
Mortino one here, he's had great runs in the gen six and, and before we went to the gen seven,
obviously his teammate, Kyle Larson is going to be dominant here, but with how Kyle Larson's been
struggling and how Chase Elliott has looked to start this season, I think Chase Elliott's
like driver number one at Hendrick and you got to look at him. If you're going to look at
a Chevrolet to bet on, I wouldn't, I wouldn't go that far. I mean, this is a Kyle Larson type
of track. Like they got notebooks on this track. They've put BTA on the, on the libraries before,
you know, he's running the Xfinity race too, or Riley race, right? Yeah. So I mean, I would,
I'd say Kyle Larson in terms of like the Hendrick stable is, is the favorite probably even for
Chevrolet in general, but I do want to say I did look at the weather. It is going to be a
nice 83 degrees and overcast. So it's beautiful. Yeah. So it's going to be a fairly warm day. So if
they're looking, so if they're looking for those cold tire temperatures, cold temperatures for
the tires and you're going to have to bring it softer and softer because it's not going to,
it's not going to be like the springtime Martinsville from a few years ago where it was
just awful. Oh, not at all. A guy that surprises me that he's way up here, at least
from his recent performances here at, at a Bristol is William Byron. I mean, the last four races,
average run is 17 and a half. And he has better odds than Chase Elliott, who has a recent average
finish of even 15.8 a little bit better. Like I said, Chase Elliott at least has his gen six
numbers to fall on here. But like William Byron career average of 16th at, at a, at Bristol,
I don't, I don't get why he's that hot. This I have an odd. I mean, I don't know if
you can just look at Bristol. Then you kind of have to look at the season in general, the guys
who are consistently fast that you didn't expect to be number one, Daniel Suarez. He's been consistently
fast all season. Carson Hosevar has been consistently fast. And Shane Van Ginsburg has
been running top 10, top 15 every freaking week other than when he wrecked. I think it was that
a, I don't know what race it was. He, I think it's Vegas where he went through the
as fast as Martinsville too. Yeah. So I mean, I don't think you can really go back
historically look at Bristol and then you kind of have to look at who's fast right now.
And like the Aspire guys and Suarez and Hosevar and then a track house with SVG.
I mean, those are some guys that I see as they scroll them by like Carson Hosevar is
2,500 odds. And then SVG is like near Cody Ware territory or what I saw all go. So I mean,
if you're looking for some top 10 bets, maybe like go with some of those guys.
Yeah. SVG for sure is somebody I have an eye on as he does with man nine to one on
Caesars. Like that's insane. I know he could easily probably get top 15 finish and type in
top 15. Yeah. And I remember at least last week, I think when me and Massey were on for
Martinsville, we did our episode as soon as Fandle opened the books for top 10s and they had
their all wonky at the start and fixed it over time. It was 17 to one for a lot of guys at
Martinsville. Yeah. And say it was insane behavior. They're not open yet at the moment
for Fandle here recording on a Wednesday, but be sure to look out for that. Maybe either Thursday
or Friday when those open up for Fandle. But I mean, still nine to one for Caesars. That gives
you a good forecast of probably how SVG is going to run like on his, on maybe his Fandle
lots, maybe 10 to one, 11 to one. And he looked good at even at Martinsville.
He's look good everywhere. That's what I'm saying. Like whereas Hosevar SVG have been
guys who've looked good everywhere. Never am I one yet, but there, I think Hosevar is firing on one
before they do barring, you know, road course SVG shows up on a road course and dominates,
but turns up ovals. I think Hosevar wins before those two guys do. But I mean,
those, all three of those guys have been fast and I think consistently have been
good from Daytona up till now, barring like an issue happening to them. So I don't know if
it's just previous history of Bristol can be really be enough to kind of like gauge like
who's, who's gonna be the top 10, top 15 guys running this. Now up front, yeah, Blaney, Larson,
Hamlin, right? Those guys are winners. Yeah. That's those are your guys, but for some solid,
maybe, you know, bet five bucks when 30, 40 bucks. Those are the three guys I put down for
for that. Yeah. Hosevar, you hit the nail on the head with Carson Hoseford. So I think,
especially when you see at the end of last year, year's Bristol night race, he was up front with
Zane Smith. I mean, obviously a strategy call there, but I think Carson Hosevar, this is a track
that, that really does well for him. He qualified good at a Martinsville, just didn't end up
staying up front. That's more of his tracks. He struggles out a little bit more. But yeah,
25 to one for him here. I think that's very solid off DraftKings. I take that note. I
like betting DraftKings too. So I take that. Another team, speaking of speed throughout the
season, and then somebody who almost got the job done in the fall as well, Brack Hizlowski, 22 to
one, that is a, that, that is alarm bells. Like I probably easily throw, I have two units
marked down for him. I'd be comfortable with three units on him because he's had race
winning speed almost. If we're going for Tyler Redick at being so dominant, even through,
even through strife at Darlington, like Brack Hizlowski would have a win on his shoulders.
And that awesome looking throwback to Greg Biffle, 22 to one for him, 20 or 30 to one for
a winner here in the next generation of Chris Busher. Now I'm not as hot as him
for him here at Bristol, just because he hasn't really been able to replicate that one,
that one race. And that kind of was a different kind of tire race where everyone had flat tires
in that one. Brack Hizlowski, of course, flat tire from the lead, Marjorek Stringer as well
for Joe Gibbs racing in that race. I mean, in this era, and it's going to be a little
bit different, but I think speed over all RFK is a team you have to have your eye on.
Even all three other cars, including Ryan Priest in that conversation.
Yeah. Like you said, not Brack Hizlowski. He had a good showing at Darlington,
but RFK, they're just in Ford in general, other than Blaney. They're just
not it right now. Busher is doing better than he is. Priest will show up and qualify well,
but then fade in the race. But yeah, I think with the Ford camp, Blaney's the guy for it.
You probably, Joe Agama, just because of experience at Bristol, but I just don't see
Ford really doing much, especially Brad at Bristol, just because RFK just hasn't had it.
This year, so it's, I don't know. You're not on that train, are you?
No, not the Ford. I think it's going to be a Toyota slash Chevy Fest. By Chevy Fest,
I mean Kyle Larson. You can't, I don't think you can count out for it. I mean,
even Ryan Blaney too, with how good he's been in the 750 horsepower package. I mean,
yeah, he didn't get up there and challenged for the win, or he got put in the wall by
Denny Hamlin at Marnsville. I mean, and he's, but he won at Phoenix. That's, I mean, it's 650.
I don't like the odds in terms of going up against Hamlin. Yeah, sure. I guess against Larson.
I'm just on, I'm not Larson's done the card until he wins, like with his, with his value
right now and how he's been. He hasn't won since he's approaching a full year of being
winless in the five car. That's just, that's just the facts at this point with Kyle Larson. He's just,
I won't be upset on missing plus 450 odds for Kyle Larson in the cup series. And of course,
he's making, he's being in the O'Reilly series field. He's going to make those odds skyrocket
in that, in that separate field. It's just, I don't know. It's, it's not the, I know,
I respect his, I had him last year and he won, but that was the last year thing with, with how it
was. It's a whole another conversation with Larson and that, and that front. Speaking of,
but speaking of different for, for conversation, we talked about this a little bit before we,
we began the show. It feels like a whole different song and dance for Bubba Wallace right
now sitting at 40 to one odds and, and after abysmal Martinsville, I had him on my card at
Martinsville from his track record there. That was exactly not what he needed to, to go into.
At least he had an off week to think about it, but I mean, this isn't his strongest suit of a,
of a short track coming into Bristol. Yeah. Darlington, Martinsville, those are two
tracks he should have done well on. And for, well, they just didn't have it at Martinsville.
Darlington strategy put him behind because they, some, I think I found my curriculars like a
a bad pit stop or there's the incident where a driver hit the wall and he, and he got,
it's back in traffic, hit it and it kind of like knocked their stuff out. And then
yeah, so he hasn't had a good, good two races for going into the off week. So maybe
this is off week is what he needed. But going back to what you're saying about Larson,
he's always like started late in the season. It seems like William Byron's always been the
Hendrick car to win like three or four races, like within the first six weeks or so. Then
Kyle Larson, you know, they're, oh, we're figuring out, you know, blah, blah, blah. And then
like around this time hits or the spring hits, the summer hits and the Kyle Larson ones,
like three races or so. Then Hendrick's just weird. The driver's just come and go
in phase and Chase Elliott will just rip one off every now and again. But, but yeah, so I think
this is where Larson kind of like shows up a little bit. I'm more like kind of like concerned
about William Byron not showing up yet because William Byron's usually been the guy that, you
know, he's wants back to back the 20, 500s up until this year. So he's kind of like
gotten a hot start. But yeah, I think this is the week Larson rebounds and show something.
But yeah, 20 to 11 is going to be fast. I think Tyler Redick's going to have a solid
maybe top five to top 10 day. Bubba Wallace, we got, we got to see with practice and
qualifying. He's, he's, he's, he's shocked with people with their front row starts this
year. They've had a couple 20 to 11 top two, top three, four, five starts, you know, in the
season so far. So they got fast race cars. It's just, can he put the race together
and, you know, hopefully, you know, being a new dad times two now, you know, hopefully he's got
some relaxation over the weekend and he's not going to be, you know,
most of our in his way through the field like he did at Marnsville two weeks ago.
Yeah, honestly, well, Bristol, I'm looking at his track averages for this in general.
Over the last four races, he's bottom of the barrel when it comes to that he's
21.3 average finish. It just, it does not look good at all for, he does have a top five here in
the last, in the last couple of races as well. So I just, I forget when it was. I know his
teammate Corey Heim also did good here when it was a tire race. That's, you know, he is,
when you look at his average finish, he's the top of the chain. Even though he's not racing
here, he's racing the truck race. That's good news for him there and trying to get 500,000,
but for his teammates, I don't know. I'm not, I'm not on bubble walls at all.
I think it goes back to how I was saying earlier when I brought up post of ours,
who are as an SVG kind of got to look at the season up to this point rather than historically,
because we've seen a lot of weird stuff. Like no one pegged Tyler Redick to when
four races to start the year, you know what I mean? Like no one expect that, you know?
So it's like kind of, you know, some of the main players like we talked about have,
have kind of emerged with Hamlin Blaney. Larson hasn't yet. I think he's about to
you know, we have, we do have a Hinder car victory lane at Martinsville Chase Elliott, but I mean,
I think it's more of a team thing this year. 2311 has fast cars, cars, Riley Herbs, like funny
enough has had flashes of speed here and there. He's, I think Darlington, he was running top 15
until he had that running with Zillich. I believe it was, but yeah. Yeah. So I mean,
they have fast cars. It's just more, more so the drivers, the driver going to be able to
minimize mistakes and errors and kind of like get back to being the race car driver that they can
be and you know, come away with the top 10, top and finish. Yeah. And I have, I have faith that
Redick is going to stay good in that, in that consistency and get, get to the end of the
race and whatnot. But yeah, with bubble right now, he's just two races in a row where
he's just kind of been rockless. And again, going into a trap.
We had like second, third to ninth in points over the course of like
two weeks. And a lot of it was because of, was because of having a Martinsville last week.
So I mean, it's not one in your end, but you don't have to win to get to the chase,
but every point counts and man has he lost a lot of points within two weeks. So
if they, if 2311 brings fast race cars this weekend, he needs to, he needs to
maximize it and then just run a smart race and come away with a top 10 or so to kind of
just like ease on into Kansas where again, I know that's, that's played to Kansas.
That's Toyo's playground. I believe that's where we saw a Denny and Bubba dueling it out last year.
Oh God. I mean, if he, if he comes out of Bristol with the top 10, he can go in at Kansas,
you know, pretty right. And that's probably, if you're going to pick Bubba Wallace to win any race
of the year outside of a super speedway, maybe it's, it's got to be Kansas. So,
but that, but he's has to do well at Bristol to set that up, that momentum up.
That you reminded me of heartbreak from last year when I had Bubba and Hamlin on the card and
then here comes Chase Elliott out of nowhere. There's last four results, 29th, third, 19th
after starting eighth in the fall race, 34th in an accident. So we'll see for Bubba Wallace,
we'll see for the rest of the field, we can go over everybody if we wanted to, but we'd be here
for hours if we covered everyone else. To simplify it for everyone, Trent, how
pick about three or four guys that you go into the card right now for Bristol this weekend.
All right, three or four guys. All right. So I'm going to kind of go with our formula here, where
it's going to be top heavy, mid, and then the unexpected. So top heavy, I'm, I guess I'm going
to go Kyle Larson. You go Kyle, Danny, 1A1B in my opinion, maybe Blaney's right there too. So
any of those, but cliff Daniels and that strategy at Bristol, like, I mean, it's,
I can't, I can't doubt them at Bristol. I guess for a sort of like a middle of the road guy to
look out for, you know, let's go with side gifts. Side gifts can be like, you know, the middle
road of guy where you could, you know, see something like that happen. And then I guess for
the random pick, the guy that's kind of like at the bottom with like 9,000 odds or whatever it
is, you know, if you can stay out of trouble, I'm going to go with Carson Hosebar.
Yeah, with 25 to 1 odds. I'm right, I'm right there.
It's teammate Suarez and then SVG, but Suarez, Hosebar has been the one that can actually get
the car up front and lead laps and race for the lead. So I'm going to, so my three would probably be
A tier is Larson, B tier picks on the Gibbs and then you got to go with a post of
Arthur C tier level. So yeah, I'm with you there. I'm going to go, you said A1, A1, B with Larson
and Hamlin, which those are two favorites going into it by the odds. I'm just going to ride Denny
Hamlin. Like he showed speed all day at Barnesville. I took him at six to one at
Barnesville. He's only dropped to five and a half. Still great odds for him on DraftKings
there. There's no reason not to bet against Denny Hamlin at the moment.
But I'm going to go deeper. I'm not going to stop at Ty Gibbs. I'll have him on my props though,
for sure. Stand by for that. But Chase Elliott 14 to 1 coming off the win in
Momentum's the thing. I don't know why they're not going to count Elliott here. I mean,
he hasn't won a race at, well, he won the All-Star Race at Bristol.
I was going to say, Chase Elliott wasn't, I think Bristol and Chase Elliott, they don't scream.
I forget about the All-Star win and the freaking rear, that rear number,
that accursed All-Star race with the freaking glow and all that. He does.
I think it's just more cursed when Blaney had his window net down and because he thought he won
the race. Let's not hug. 2020 and 2022 All-Stars were just, no, just absolutely not.
But no, he does have a win here, I guess, not officially in the books. But yeah, I mean, he's
in the next generation. He hasn't been up there to compete for wins, which I get why he's at 14 to
1 for that reason. And Kyle Larson being the showstopper he is here. But Larson hasn't been
a showstopper in a year since this race at Bristol and then the following race at Kansas.
Who's our champion? Oh yeah, he's a champion. He's no more play, no more playoffs.
Or the most points last season though. I mean, talk about this offline.
Jesus. Pre-traditionalists for the points. He did score the most points.
Danny played the system the best that race. Danny played the best system for the playoffs,
but if we're going with tradition, Kyle Larson had the most points technically
over the season last year. So with William Byron would have been in control of that championship.
He did not need to catch Denny Hamlin if that was the hypothetical. But we can digress about that
offline. Geez, man. But yeah, but Larson right now is just not, he's not on a race winning
level in my opinion, even though he's in the Xfinity race, even though he's been good
here. If it's a tire, like if it's an invincible tire race, we can't even bank on it at the moment.
I would come back after practicing qualifying and see how the tire rubber's in or lack thereof.
It'll rubber in. It's going to be 80 degrees at the track. It's concrete. It's going to be fine.
But again, Hamlin, four wins here in his career. And with his momentum, you got to take him.
Got to take him right now at the favorite spot. The ones I have a little bit more of a long shot on,
Brad Keselowski at 22 to one, I think is just a no-brainer without good. He's been for the
season in terms of pace and also again, finished second here and was challenging hard for that
win at the night race. I know the spring and the day time is going to be different for that
team. If it's a tire race, if it's a tire cheese grater race, more power to Keselowski
because Hamlin and even Ty Gibbs were fighting for the win when it came into that in the spring of 24,
if I'm not mistaken in that. But yeah, Keselowski good here, 22 to one, two or three units. That's
a good bet. And then I'll join you on that Carson host for 25 to one train, one and a half.
I think this is just one of his tracks that he could surprise a lot of people at, like he did
in the fall last year. If things come to a head, he's going to take that risk. And I think
things can pay off for that 77 team eventually. This is where they hit their stride and they're
in the chase. They have some of the fight for here and get up front there. I'm going to roll
into our props. I'll start it off here with a couple guys we haven't mentioned yet.
Josh Berry and Austin Cinderick. Now, Josh Berry coming off at top 10 at Martinsville
as plus 280 to get the top 10 at Bristol. I'm of the belief that, I mean, this is just a short track
guy. I know this isn't his strongest suit of a short track, but I still remember him doing solid
in 2024 with, or yeah, 2023 rather with Stortas racing or no, it was 24. I'm getting those races
mixed up. But when he was in the four and driving the wheels off that sunny D number four, he looked
good and he's raced well here at Bristol in the past. I will give the benefit of the doubt to
him after a good race at Martinsville. And then Austin Cinderick has kind of been on a
very sneaky hot run himself. And I know you're not on top of the Fords for this one. I think I am.
I think they've shown enough pace to kind of edge into the end of the top 10 and having plus
260 odds. I put two units on both Berry and Cinderick. Kazlowski also at plus money at
plus 120 for a top 10. I like his win. Why not take his top 10? Even his top five as well is
good. It's like in the three to one range. If you want to take it there as at plus 320, I like that.
And then speaking of top fives, I also like Ty Gibbs. I will take his top five at plus 145,
two and a half, three units as well. He's on a hot streak when it comes to it. And this is one
of his best tracks. And the numbers don't lie when it comes to Ty Gibbs at Bristol, I think.
I know Swan Ed Lane is going to like that. I like that one.
Ed Lane, big Ty Gibbs guy. I guess for mine, I'm going to go with two of the guys I mentioned
earlier. Daniel Suarez and SVG. I put them down for a top 10 or so. I'm not expecting them to
set the world on fire at elite laps when they're A's to get a top five or anything like that.
But I would not be surprised if Suarez finishes 10th, 12th, something like that.
SVG could pull out maybe like an eighth or so. Those guys, they're just good guys because they're
at the bottom of the barrel kind of with the odds. And so if you put a little money on them
to get a top 10 or so, top five, you're going to make a big thing on that for sure. But
those guys wouldn't surprise me. And I'm going to give a quiet name as he's scrolling at the
at the end. He's just ahead of Keselowski with the odds and someone who struggled a lot this year so
far. But he's on the powerhouse team and that's Chase Briscoe. He's a veteran. He's a championship
contending driver last couple of seasons, especially last year. I would be surprised
if Chase Briscoe comes in and shows, reminds people who he is. Denny Hamlin's great at Bristol.
They share information. I'm sure some of that Denny Hamlin magic is going to be
in these Joe Gibbs, other Gibbs Toyotas, hence Gibbs and Briscoe. And so I would be shocked if
Chase Briscoe comes out with a top five or top 10 or so. He's had not such a good year after
having a fiery, I guess you call it posties in last year in the playoffs. But yeah,
Chase Briscoe is, I guess, my other guy that could probably eat out a top five while
SVG. Maybe I'm expecting realistically top 15, but he could get a top 10, same as Suarez. He could
get like the 7th to 12th range finishes there. Yeah, I think I'd co-sign. I'd co-sign Shane
Van Geisberg at 9 to 1. I think he's proven enough that if he has that kind of value,
it's, I mean, it's hit or miss. I think it's more closer to 50-50 than it's ever been
for him at ovals. And he's fighting for a Chase squad himself as well. So
he's Daniel Suarez, 6 to 1. Also pretty good value for someone who's been fighting at the top
more often than not. I think Trackhouse, I think Spire and Trackhouse, those two are
kind of leaders in that front for the respective teams. Very, very fitting. Yeah, fitting for
Suarez to be fighting for top 10. We haven't talked about Chastain. I would not be shocked
that Chastain kind of has like a solid run. He's a sleeper too. I'm glad you mentioned him.
50 to 1. I mean, I think books are starting to sleep on Trackhouse a little bit now. I think
it's for good reason because they haven't shown the overall pace with even Chastain right now.
I mean, I'm not carrying on my card for reasons, for those exact reasons. You have
a phenom in Connor Zillich who proved that he's one of the next best things
winning double digit freaking Xfinity races last year. And now he's relegated to fighting
for top 20s in that car. It's very strange to see SVG taking the mantle here and going
after the best runs for that team and challenging for top 10s at ovals. It
makes that guy a lot more dangerous. I think it makes SVG even more dangerous.
They said, if you figure out the ovals, we're in trouble. Watch out. If you figure the ovals out,
he gets his four or five road course ones a year. Only four road courses now though.
Eight other top fives or so. I think SVG will get two road courses. I think Zillich will
get one though. That's a little bit of a projection. I'll go ahead and put it.
He had a got here come back at Coda until he got screwed.
Hey, we were riding Reddick that day, baby. We were riding Reddick all day on that one.
That was a good one. We went for the three Pete. There we go.
Wherever Sonoma or whatever road courses next pops up, then I can put the Zillich on that
list, but right now he's kind of, I'll put Chastain on the first one.
Oh, I never signed. Yeah. Chastain's top 10 specifically. I'll look it up before we roll
on out of here. It's plus 185. I think that's all about. He's the same value as Kyle Bush,
and he's been running a whole lot better from above walls, plus 190 at top 10. That's crazy.
We can go over everybody. We get Zane Smith. Hey, shout out, Trey Lyle, by the way. Zane Smith
plus 450 top 10 to repeat after the fall. He's been 10 to one sometimes. I'd wait for the
Fandle number to come out before I pull a trigger on Zane Smith, but we could say here, talk all
day about everyone else. Chad Fincham, baby. Come on. We're out of time though today.
Trenton, again, thanks very much for coming on the show. Hey, I'll give you a shout out real quick,
too. Trenton's done a great job covering Greenville, Peck and Speedway. It's been one of the best
things on Frontstretch's grassroots content. I'll be at the track and national fairgrounds
covering the car store first time. We're getting out to a car store race this year.
Trenton, like I said at the top of the show, you're going to be at Bristol.
What can some of the guys, some of the fans out there expect from you coming this weekend?
Some sidebars, of course. Before race or after race is yet to be determined. We've mentioned
Bubba earlier. Depending on talking to Denny, Bubba or Reddick this weekend,
what they say, I'd like to spotlight a little bit as if the off-week was,
is the off-week the reset he needs to get back on track? Like we said, he went from
like 2nd or 3rd to 9th on points after Darlington and Martinsville. I might try to work on that
one a little bit depending on what kind of answers we get. I did. At this time, I'm waiting
to hear back from Frankie Muniz's people, maybe to get an interview with him. He's got the
reboot coming out. It's going to be on his truck this weekend. He's got the Panini
Dicast coming out. Kind of want to pick his brain a little bit about balancing being an actor and
a race car driver. Two dream jobs we all would love to have, but you're not immune to burnout
and pressure. Kind of want to pick his brain on that side a little bit if we're able to line
that one. Bristol, you're going to have the typical post-race content from trucks, Friday
night, to a rally Saturday, and then the big boys with the Cup Series on Sunday.
And Mark Crystal will be there with me. Our champion of ARCA, Mark Crystal will be
my sidekick for the weekend. Our fearless ARCA leader, Mark Crystal, you find him,
Mark Crystal at Mark Crystal on Twitter for his content there. You can find
Trent Worsham right there on our screen on YouTube at soundlinkunderscore-trent.
And then you can follow me at WyattDB Racing. I'll be covering again all the content coming out
of National Fairgrounds. Dale Earnhardt Jr. going to be there.
You're at Junebug. Junebug, man. What's the new meme these days with it?
Figgie Earnhardt. What is that? What are Figgie Earnhardts on?
What are Figgie Earnhardts on during the car store race?
Hey, they need a driver for the 33 car now. I mean,
Jeffrey Earnhardt did it for Frickin' RTR.
Figgie's time to shine.
Figgie's time to shine, baby. Now, I can't wait to get out to a historic track in National
Fairgrounds and kind of figure out, like, what's the future of that place? Love to see the
cars tour out there and represent the Leymann Stock Series and everyone going out and racing
there. How about Landon Huffins' diecat, or hopefully it's a diecast one day, that Texas
Roadhouse scheme. Good grief. Where's my Texas hat? I need to put that on.
Can't wait to get out there, though. That's going to be fun. And then check out all the
rest of our content. Not a lot of podcasts. If you didn't mention it, Leymann, there was
last week when we talked about Martinsville. And when are we going to see Ty Gibbs to get
that first win from last week's episode of Happy Hour? So check that out. And stock
our scoop will be on. That will cover post-race after Bristol. So check that out
with Eric Schneck. But that'll do it for us here at Through the Gears. Thank you so much
for coming on. Subscribe to Front Stretch, Front Stretch Plus, all of our Front Stretch channels
for more content. And let's make some money at Bristol, baby.
Request an explanation for:
1 cars
1 cars featured
Request an Explanation
Heard something you'd like explained? We'll add it to this episode.
Sign in to request explanations for terms you heard.
Want to learn more?
Browse our glossary for plain-English explanations of automotive terms, jargon, and concepts.
Help improve this episode
See something that's not quite right? Our annotations are AI-generated and can sometimes miss the mark. Click the flag icon on any annotation to suggest a correction.
Report incorrect info
Suggest better explanations
Flag missing cars
More from Frontstretch Podcast Network
The Pit Straight: Tight Streets & Fast Turns
Jun 5, 2026
Bringing the Heat: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Talks Kyle Busch Tribute, Hyak Extension
Jun 4, 2026
Happy Hour: ARCA Check-in, Cleetus McFarland Buzz, Toyota Dominance & Pole Sitter Bonus Play
Jun 3, 2026
Stock Car Scoop: From Penalty to Victory Lane, Denny Hamlin Wins a Barn Burner at Nashville
Jun 1, 2026