Through the Gears: NASCAR Betting Odds for Charlotte
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Term
pit road
Pit road is where teams pull in to do things like tire changes during the race. If a car goes too fast there, it can get a penalty and lose track position.
Term
crash out
“Crash out” means the driver wrecks and can’t keep racing. When that happens to a front-runner, other cars can move up the finishing order.
Term
next gen car
NASCAR’s “next gen car” is the newer race car design NASCAR uses now. If a driver is doing great in it, it means they’ve been performing well under the current car rules, not just in the older cars.
Car
Ford Ranger
The Ford Ranger is a pickup truck, meaning it has a cab for passengers and an open cargo bed. It’s often used for work or hauling, but some people also build Rangers to race on tracks. When it’s discussed in a racing context, it’s usually because a driver or team uses a Ranger-style truck for competition.
Brand
Dodge
Dodge is the car brand mentioned here. The host is saying Dodge’s involvement in its truck program may affect how much support teams get, which can influence race performance.
Company
ECR engines
In NASCAR, teams don’t just compete with the car body—they also rely on the engine program. Saying “ECR engines” are struggling means the engines from that program haven’t been performing as well as others this season.
Term
top five plus 1600
“Top five plus 1600” is the betting odds for finishing in the top five. Higher numbers mean the book thinks it’s less likely, so the payout would be bigger if it happens.
Term
qualifying
Qualifying is when drivers race to set their starting positions for the main race. If a driver qualifies well, they usually start closer to the front, which can help them finish better.
Term
rain
Rain can make the track slick and harder to drive. That can change who has the advantage, so fantasy picks become more unpredictable.
Term
metric
The host is talking about a numbers-based way to make picks. When the race conditions change, those numbers can stop being as reliable, so things get unpredictable.
Concept
starting in the back
Starting in the back means a driver begins the race near the rear of the starting grid. In NASCAR, that typically increases the difficulty of gaining track position quickly and can raise the chance of getting caught in early incidents.
LIVE
Hello everybody and welcome into another episode of Through the Gears.
I am Michael Lofoni, joining you before the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday night crown jewel
event off the All-Star Race where last week's episode I really was not surprised by the
result.
Denny Hamlin taking his third straight win at Dover, I was there in person for that race
and I've been there the last three years and saw him win all three times.
That's why I made the choice so easy for me to pick Denny Hamlin to win that race.
I won some other guys like Redick, I think I may have picked Elliott, but that was just
a crazy race under a crazy format really.
The format is what made it crazy and we'll see what happens in the future with that
All-Star Race.
But before we get into the picks and just the whole Coca-Cola 600, the strategies that
go around that with the stage cautions, the extra stage, I just want to quickly just talk
about the shocking.
It still hasn't sunk in, I don't think it will sink in for a while, just the tragic passing
of Kyle Busch.
Like I said, I was at Dover on Sunday and he won the truck race on Friday and now he's
gone.
It's kind of just a repeat of what a lot of people have said already is just how fragile
life is and I cannot believe we have lost a legend like this actively just gone in a
blink of an eye after seeing him live on Sunday to see that news.
It's just mind-boggling and it's heartbreaking and I wish the best for the Busch family and
just the NASCAR communities we try to somehow some way move past this and get on to the
Coca-Cola 600 with everyone just trying to move on, especially RCR with Austin Hill
now taking over the 33, the new renumbered car.
But now to get back into racing and talking about the race itself.
Looking at the odds on Ben MGM, right now the favorite to win the Coca-Cola 600 is Denny
Hamlin who won this race back in 2022 and he won last week in the All-Star race.
He won the Las Vegas race back in the spring.
So Hamlin being the favorite does not surprise me in coming in second.
The guy who really everybody's been chasing this year is Tyler Reddick plus five fifties
never won the Coca-Cola 600.
But I'm sure he's going to be in contention with how well 2311 has been racing this year
and especially how the number 45 has been dialed up and he's already very solid on mile and
a half tracks.
So he's updating a Christopher Bell and other former Coca-Cola 600 winner in the next gen
era at plus 575.
He's been snakebitten.
It's been well documented this year.
He should have had way more better finishes this year with the amount of bad luck.
He's had a surprising as in one race yet this year.
I'm sure it's coming soon.
Speaking of a guy on a winless street, Kyle Larson plus 700.
He is a former Coca-Cola 600 winner as well but that came back in the gen six car in that
dominant 2021 season.
He's plus 700 along with his teammate Chase Elliott at plus 702.
He's never won the Coca-Cola 600.
He has won on the shot over before but again that was all the way back in 2020.
Then there's another 100 car, William Byron plus 850.
Another guy who just hasn't been able to show his peak strength.
He's around that 11th to 12th range in the standings and he's never won at Charlotte
on the oval.
So Byron still chasing that first win in his hometown and see if those 100 guys have anything
for the Toyotas.
So we've seen three Toyotas and 300 Chevy's and we have to go all the way down to another
former Coke 600 winner, Ryan Blaney, the highest Ford at plus 1100.
Carson Hosevart plus 1000 sandwiched between Byron and Blaney.
So Hosevart shooting everyone's odds boards.
He was running well in the Coke 600 last year before his engine gave way while he was leading
on the restart and then you have Blaney at plus 1100.
A sneaky one in my opinion, Chase Briscoe plus 1100.
He's come close to winning the Coke 600 before.
That one wouldn't be a shock to me if he wins because of how things have started to turn
around for him to finishing second at Dover last week.
This kind of seems like the time of the year last year where Chase Briscoe started to turn
his season around because he got off to a slow start last year.
But then he started to run better and he got that first win at Polkano for Joe Gibbs in
the 19 car and that really set off his summer of good finishes.
Then he got another Gibbs driver, Ty Gibbs plus 1400.
Then it starts to hit the 2000s and beyond.
So with the Coke 600, it's obviously a long night, four stages, a lot of attrition,
probably going to see some carnage.
So it's not a straightforward lock that Hamlin's going to win this race.
I do think that there's going to be some drama.
I think Charlotte's been arguably the best track with this car.
I think that we're going to see a lot of lead changes and dueling strategies,
maybe some fuel mileage.
I mean, we've seen a lot of fuel mileage being talked about this year in and out of
plate racing.
I mean, we saw last points race with Watkins Glen.
There was fuel saving there.
Maybe we'll see some guys trying to stretch the fuel.
It seems it depends on how the caution shake out.
But I think a safe pick would probably be Reddick, Hamlin.
I think there is a chance that he's the dominant car.
But I also could think that another Toyota takes over.
The Chevy's find something.
I don't know.
I feel like Hamlin, you got that all-star one last week.
Do I think Hamlin's going to do it again?
Maybe because of just how well that 11 teams performed on a mile and a half.
It would be fitting for a veteran driver that raced around Caboche for so long.
I've seen this on social media that people are pulling for the older guys to win this weekend.
So the guys like Hamlin or Keselowski or Logano,
I mean, obviously it'd be amazing if Austin Dillon won.
That's a sentimental favorite.
But Hamlin leading the top of the board.
Got a heavy heart, but everyone does.
Really been Hamlin especially for being his teammate for that long.
Maybe Hamlin could go two in a row.
Dover into Charlotte.
Hendrick guys.
Elliott did win on a mile and a half at Texas.
So it's not impossible for Hendrick Carter to win on a mile and a half.
But the Toyotas just seemed so strong.
Another guy that is a little bit down the list that I'd keep an eye on.
I know he only has three career wins.
But Bubba Wallace plus 2,200.
That might be one to look at.
Chastain who won the race last year plus 3,500.
It's been a rough year for Trackhouse for the most part.
But maybe Chastain finds something in Corey Heim in a Toyota part-time plus 5,000.
But for those guys, it kind of feels like the odds would be better to place it in a top five
or a top 10 bet.
Bubba Wallace is plus 275 for a top five.
A guy like Chris Bushers plus 225, he could sneak in there.
Chastain plus 475.
Heim plus 650.
Maybe you throw something in there like that.
Or maybe like a Ryan Priest could sneak in there plus 800.
Or maybe that's just better for a top 10.
A guy that could get the most out of his car over the long night.
Priest would be plus 210 for a top 10 finish.
Austin Dillon plus 325.
Suarez plus 350.
And because I do think there are going to be some underdogs that finish in this top 10.
Because like I said, the race is long.
Things happen.
Contenders could crash out or speed on pit road.
So we could have multiple underdog finishers in the top 10.
And that wouldn't shock me one bit.
Because if you look at last year's results, A. J. Allmendinger finished fourth.
And I saw a graphic that A. J. Allmendinger has the best average finish in the next gen car
on the Charlotte Oval, which is hard to believe because he's been known as a road course
ranger his whole career that you would expect.
Because he's won on the Rover before.
But for him to be this successful on the Oval is something to look at.
And the odds makers haven't really taken to effect with A. J. Allmendinger.
Because I will say it's probably going to be a little harder from this year.
Because obviously Dodge taking their truck program.
And they probably don't have as much support.
The ECR engines have been struggling for the most part this year.
RCR Trackhouse that it would be surprising for Allmendinger to get another top five.
Because his odds for a top five plus 1600 top 10.
It's a little bit better at plus 350.
But Allmendinger could be one to look at.
Say, hey, you could get another top 10, top five.
He's been finding something here.
McDowell finished seventh last year.
And then Noah Graxin snuck in with a tenth place finish last year.
Stenhouse was 11th.
Another guy to look at, Josh Berry was 12th.
And Josh Berry ran a whole lot better last year.
He had that win at Las Vegas.
They just have not had that same speed this year.
But Berry is another guy that really could put his elbows down.
And go to work and grind out a top 10 finish.
He's plus 500 for a top 10.
I believe I'm almost 100% sure on this that he has won at Charlotte on the OO before.
I think he won in the O'Reilly series back in probably like 2022 or 23.
I think he outdouled Justin Allgaier one race.
I think Josh Berry has won on the Charlotte OO before.
So that's another guy to look at for a top 10.
McDowell had a good run in the All-Star race.
Or no, excuse me.
The Watkins Glen race, he finished second.
So maybe he could build on that, get another top 10.
McDowell for a top 10 is around those same odds as Almondinger.
Actually, he's got a higher odds than Almondinger.
He's plus 500.
Graxin's plus 500 too.
Like I said, he finished top 10 last year.
And his teammate, Zane Smith, has been a guy.
I've looked at to sneak out a good finish.
And I think he was running well last year until he crashed.
So Zane Smith might be one to look at for a top 10.
He's plus 700.
Now that's a value play right there.
And we could talk about fantasy too, because I know fantasy is a big deal.
Money or not related.
If you're just in a fantasy league, we could look at different groups of drivers that are
usually grouped together and who I would choose to pick out of the drivers.
If you want to pick one or two out of each group, we could look at that before we wrap
up on through the gears.
But the last thing on Ben MGM right now that I'm seeing other than the all bets is finishing
position and then high starting Toyota and all that stuff.
I'm seeing a lot of matchups and manufacturer parlays that I'm seeing that's pretty new to this,
honestly.
One of them at plus 2200 is that Denny Hamlin has to be the top Toyota Blaney to be the top
Ford and Larsen to be the top Chevrolet.
That seems like, you know, if you're a chalk and you think of that with March Madness,
that seems like a chalky parlay.
Like, you know, Hamlin, Blaney and Larsen are arguably the top three drivers in their
in their makes.
So then you get, I feel like you got to switch some things up.
It's not going to be a straight shot with the Coke 600.
I feel like things are bound to happen.
Things can get crazy.
So then you got to plus 5000 Hamlin, Bush or an Elliott.
Okay.
That seems a little bit more unique and different.
But then you got Redick and then Blaney and Elliott.
Then you got a little bit of a switch.
So, and then you got matchups, Belver, Larsen, Wallace versus Keselowski.
And then like I said, top Chevy, top Toyota, top Ford.
And then the manufacturer of the winning car, Toyota plus 105, Chevy plus 140,
pretty close to even, and then Ford's a little bit of a long shot plus 425.
More matchups, Hamlin versus Blaney and Byron versus Redick.
You never know what's going to happen who gets caught up in a wreck or not.
So those ones are always just tough to predict.
But I think there's just so much on the table with this particular race,
with how long it is and how much things could change.
I'm really excited to watch this on the new broadcast.
Well, not new, but first race on prime again.
And obviously the Kyle Busch tributes of what's going to happen.
I'm looking forward to this race for sure.
And to what I said earlier, looking at it from a fantasy perspective,
at front stretch, we're in a league that you only pick four drivers.
Instead of another, I'm in a league with my friends on fan tracks, a website fan tracks
where you have to pick seven or I think it's seven drivers out of each group or nine.
It might be nine drivers, honestly.
It's like two in each group plus like a wild card of who's get the best finishes.
And I can look through that very quickly.
And I want to start the front stretch league that we have on Speedway Collective.
It's one of each group.
And then you have a bench too, but the bench is never used.
So it's really just the top four guys.
So in this first class that we have, it's 300 cars.
Obviously it's a Larsen, Elliott Byron.
And then it's the lone Ford of Ryan Blaney.
And then four, it's four Toyotas, three Gibbs cars and a 2311 car.
It's Reddick along with Hamlin, Briscoe and Bell.
So I've had to pick one guy.
This is what makes it tough.
You have to pick one guy out of these elite eight drivers.
And I feel like the safe pick would be either Hamlin or Reddick,
but it could be Larsen.
It really could.
It's any day now that you would expect him to figure it out and get back to victory lane.
Or it could be Elliott, who's always steady, kind of like a safe pick to be,
if he's not going to win, he's going to finish top five or top 10 at the worst.
Or you could go with the Chase Briscoe thinking that he's going to get hot
and pick up a win.
He's always good in these long races.
He's a two time Southern 500 winner.
Has a knack for the crown jewels.
So it's really up for grabs.
Then you go to the B class.
You have last year's winner, Chastain, two RFK cars of Keselowski and Buscher.
And then it's Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs and Connor Zilch.
So out of this group, Buscher refers consistency as a pick,
Gibbs because of the speed he's had this year.
And he's another winner on the shot oval, but in the lower series.
Alex Bowman, I didn't talk about him when listening off his odds.
He's plus 2,500 to win.
And for a top 10, Alex Bowman is minus, minus odds, minus 110.
So they have faith in Bowman grinding out a top 10.
Not sure if I like his odds on a top 10 being minus,
but maybe top five odds plus 350.
Maybe you want to take a, take a shot there, go shoot for the stars.
Maybe Chastain, like I said, finds his magic from last year.
But out of this whole group, I feel like Keselowski could be one to,
to pick because he's had a very impressive year,
even with the leg injury that he had in the off season.
I might lean RFK here, either Buscher or, or Keselowski.
Then in the C tier, you have Cedric, Almond Dinger, Priess,
Barry McDowell, host of our SVG, Eric Jones, and then Austin Hill.
Who I think, I mean, I guess it had to be Kyle Busch in the C, C class,
and they just swapped them out because I, I don't know.
I feel like he was in B, but maybe he wasn't C, but you could tell
that these groups were made before the season and how,
how crazy the season plays out.
And you have to swap guys around that.
You have a group of Cedric, host of our, and really Priess in the C tier,
when they have all been playoff or plow chase cars.
So out of this group, Eric Jones could be a sneaky one too.
I always like leaning on Eric Jones.
I feel like he's wanting to keep his nose cleaning and, and fight to the front in the end.
Out of all these cars, I'd probably go,
I'd probably go host of our Cedric, but it's probably going to be host of R.
And then the D class is the biggest one because you have all these open cars.
But for the full-time entries, you have Austin Dillon, Noah Gregson, Daniel Suarez,
Ty Dillon, Todd Dillon, Riley Herp, St. Smith, Cole Custer, Nima Chex, Stenhouse,
and then Cody Ware, and then some, some three open cars of Catherine Legg, who's running the double.
Wish her the best in that grueling day for her, Timmy Hill, and then Corey Hime.
So I think Hime would be a good pick because just from the equipment,
or could you go Herps, if you think Herps is going to have a dual Hime.
Suarez, from the way he's ran this year, could be a good pick, but I think Austin Dillon,
just for a lot of different reasons, is one, he's another former Coke 600 winner.
And again, just the whole emotion behind it of how maybe they're going to find some extra speed,
just because of the motivation behind them of Austin Dillon and that whole RCR garage.
Um, I do think the smart pick though is to just go with a guy like Daniel Suarez or Corey Hime,
or either one of those 2311 cars, because Herps has run better this year.
He's still not anywhere near Wallace and obviously Reddick, but he has been better.
But I know Hime's very eager to get into that seat.
We'll see how it all plays out.
And now to look at my fan tracks league really quick, if you want to look at another front
stretch, because I know fan tracks are a pretty popular site. It's different groups.
The one group only has like four drivers in it because they're all former champions.
I'd probably just go Larsen or Elliott and then the next group to pick two drivers,
it might be like a Reddick or a Byron or a Hamlin or a Byron, something like that.
And something to also take note of, of course, is that you have to be careful of
picking a driver too many times because then you're going to run out of times you could use them.
I think in this league, I can only use each driver eight times.
So that's why you got to pick and choose your guys wisely.
Like I have Keselowski and Priest only use twice here in this league.
That could be a good one to look at because those RFK cars are good on the long runs and they could
make it to the end. They have smart veteran drivers behind the wheel,
but then I also have Omen Dinger in that group as well. So I'm not going to make my picks yet.
You always, for fantasy, I like to wait until after qualifying and I'm sure everybody does
because of, you know, just, you know, you pick Ryan Blaney, but then he smacks the wall and
qualifying and he's starting the back. You might want to go against him or, you know,
like Daniel Suarez qualifies six. Like, okay, maybe you want to throw Suarez in there.
Like we'll see what happens with qualifying tomorrow. And, you know, we never know what
could happen with the weather. As I'm recording this late Friday night, the truck race has been
pushed to 8am tomorrow, Eastern. So I know rain's going to be in and out of the Charlotte area
tomorrow. So we could start by the metric. And that's when all things really break loose in
chaos is that these cars would have not hit the track at all before the race. So you don't know
who's got who with, with what equipment and you're going to have guys starting in the back
with smart, with, with fast cars, like Byron had a bad finish at Walkins Glen. I think Bell had a
mediocre finish, but those guys got good cars. They're going to be flying through and then you
got guys like, you know, I hate to pick on them, but SVGs would have, would have a great start
in the metric because you won Walkins Glen, but he might still not be perfect at Charlotte. So he
might drop down the field, but looking at this last group, you have Stenhouse, Zillich. Zillich,
you really impressed me at Dover. So maybe Zillich is starting to get used to the next
end car and you might want to ride the hot hand. Again, that track house connection that they won
this race last year. Maybe it's Zillich that you pick, but that's me running over fantasy lineups
for this weekend. Of course, the bets. So before I wrap up on through the gears, I want to
again pick three or four, like I did last week, top winners that I'd go with, and then maybe a
Parley or two that I would want to perhaps throw some money on. So for race winner, I think again,
you just got to play it smart and go of, of one of, I'd say one of Hamlet O'Reidic for the Toyota
camp. And then maybe if I wanted to pick a Hendrick driver, I'd probably go just the way he's been
running this year. I feel like Elliot has the best chance to win, but you can't get out Larson and
Byron going for a Ford. I feel like I just don't think a Ford's going to win just the way the
year has been going. Like, yes, I think Blaney, Bush or Keselowski, those guys could run top 10,
top five, top three even, but I don't think a blue oval is going to win on Sunday.
I think it's going to be either a Toyota or a Chevy. So I'd leave my win bets for Toyotas and
Chevy's only. So like I said, Hamlet, Reddick could be one of those two, and then I'd go Elliot.
I really like Briscoe. I think Briscoe at 1100. That's a good pick. And then maybe
Bubba Wallace, maybe the 2311. If you want to bet on Reddick and Wallace, Wallace at plus
2200. I like those odds. But again, Wallace has never been a guy to win a whole lot of races.
He's only won three times in his career. And one of them or well, yeah, Indianapolis is a
kind of an intermediate. So two times on a mile and a half. He always runs well.
A mile and a half. He's keeping his car in one piece. But if I want to parlay some things together,
I think you could go like bell top five, parlayed with maybe an almond dinger top 10 or an Eric
Jones top 10, Barry top 10. You know, so those guys in like the 25th to 31st range in the standings,
I might sneak through like I talked about Barry as well, Gregson trying to get another top 10.
Fresh off an extension. Nemechek maybe gets in there. I'm surprised with Nemechek. He had some
good runs last year that just popped out of nowhere. He hasn't really had that this year. So
maybe he could find something at Charlotte for Legacy Motor Club. He has one on the oval too
in this decade in the O'Reilly series. So a lot of these guys have had success at Charlotte.
And we'll see how it all plays out the parlors. But that's going to do it for through the gears
this week. Getting ready for the Coca Cola 600. I've been Michael Belfony. Hope you all enjoy
the race weekend, everybody. Three races over Saturday and Sunday. And once again,
rest in peace to Kyle, but she will be very, very missed.
About this episode
The Frontstretch Podcast Network crew sets the tone for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, reflecting on the “tragic passing of Kyle Busch.” They then move into betting odds and prop angles: Denny Hamlin is the favorite, Tyler Reddick is the main chase, and fuel strategy plus caution timing could drive chaos across four stages. The hosts also discuss top-five/top-ten lines, next-gen-car underdog logic, and fantasy rules like waiting until after qualifying.
Original notes
A trio of Toyota drivers are the favorites for Sunday's (May 23) Coca-Cola 600.
Frontstretch Podcast Network
Frontstretch.com
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