Practice is when teams and drivers go out to test the car and learn the track. It helps them figure out what adjustments make the car handle better before qualifying.
Qualifying is the timed session that sets where cars start the race. Better qualifying usually means you start closer to the front, which helps you avoid trouble early.
“Odds on favorite” means the betting odds say that driver is most likely to win. If you bet them, the payout is usually smaller because they’re seen as the best bet.
A road course is a track with lots of corners, not just long left turns like an oval. In NASCAR, it takes different driving skills because you have to brake and turn precisely.
The “next gen car” is NASCAR’s newer race car design. When NASCAR changes the car rules, teams often have to adjust how they set up the car and how the driver drives.
Open-wheel racing is where the wheels are exposed, like IndyCar or Formula-style cars. The driving style can help a driver adapt to road courses in NASCAR.
Pocono Raceway is a famous NASCAR track in Pennsylvania. It’s known for being a little different from most ovals, so car setup and tire management matter a lot.
“Chase conversation” means whether a driver is still in the hunt for the NASCAR championship. It’s about points and results that keep them eligible for the playoff run.
NASCAR races are divided into sections called stages. Drivers earn points for how they do in each section, and those points can matter for standings later.
“Minus odds” means the bet is favored, so it’s more likely to happen than a plus-odds bet. It also usually pays less compared to betting on an underdog.
Daytona has more than one track layout. The “road course” version is the twisty configuration, and drivers who are good at road courses tend to do well.
This is a famous road-racing track in Austin, Texas. It’s the kind of track that really tests how well a driver can handle turns, braking, and changing grip.
A “chase spot” means a driver is close enough in the standings to make NASCAR’s playoff run. It matters because it can change how aggressively they race.
The “Gen six car” is the older NASCAR race-car generation used before the newer “next-gen” rules. Since the rules change how the car drives, some drivers do better in one generation than the other.
“Brake rubber” is basically debris from the braking system. If it gets thrown around and hits the wrong spot—like near the radiator—it can cause overheating and ruin the race.
Kevin Magnuson is being talked about because he’s making his first NASCAR start. When someone is new to NASCAR, it can be harder to predict how they’ll do right away.
Jimmy Johnson is a very accomplished NASCAR champion, and the host is highlighting him as a key driver for this weekend. Big-name champions often get more attention because they tend to be strong in races.
The host is recommending Chastain as a pick for fantasy. They think he’ll be strong this weekend, especially on the kind of track where road-course skills matter.
They’re discussing NASCAR picks for a race weekend in San Diego. Different tracks favor different driving styles, so the location/track type affects who’s a good bet.
A parlay is a single bet that includes multiple predictions. If every prediction comes true, you win more money; if even one part fails, the whole bet loses.
A wreck is a crash. In a race, crashes can force slowdowns and can cause drivers to drop out, which can lead to surprising finish results.
LIVE
Hello, everybody, and welcome into Through the Gears.
I am Michael Bell-Femini of FrontStretch.com, and getting ready for the Race the Base, or
Race the Base this weekend, massive weekend in NASCAR, historic weekend out on Naval Base
Coronado in San Diego for the Enderill 250 for the Cup Series, truck race just started
as a recording this.
Big weekend, all three series going on, and we'll take you through all you need to know
at the Cup Series, betting lines for Sunday's Race, and it is courtesy of DraftKings, and
I wasn't on Through the Gears last weekend because I was at Polk and I was covering it
for FrontStretch, but I'm pretty sure that Denny Hamlin was the odds-on favorite, so
he once again nails that one.
He's been, seems like he's been the odds-on favorite every week.
The last few weeks picking up these wins, and he got another one at Polk and I'll, last
Sunday saw that live great performance from him, but that streak is over because we were
at a road course, and Denny Hamlin knew it.
He said that as a joke in the presser last week, but seems like more of the same for
who the favorite's going to be at San Diego for the Naval Base Race.
There's only been one, or there's been two actually, two road courses this year, Tileratic
one is Kota, and Shayman Gizbergen won at Watkins Glen in May, and he is the favorite,
SVG is the favorite, and I saw a comment from him today, first day of press at San Diego,
and he was kind of surprised, and it seemed like he kind of felt that he was the odds-on
favorite again, because it kind of seemed like disrespect, I think he said, or he wasn't
respecting his competitors, but I mean, when you look at what he's done in such a short
time on road courses and his NASCAR Cup series career, taking it from supercars down under,
he's had a massive road course winning streak, and it seems like even though we're all at
a blank slate here in San Diego and no one's had track time, he just feel like from his
background, he's going to be able to hit the ground running, I think he said the way the
courses laid out, it's going to be hard to put down a perfect lap, so I'm sure that the way your
car handles, the way it's prepped is going to put a lot into it, but Trackhouse, that 97 team
especially, seems that they are going to have things dialed in, and he was not the fastest in
practice, he was eighth fastest, Kyle Arson was the fastest, because with this weekend, kind of a
weird schedule, how Cup practice today, but not qualifying, qualifying tomorrow, but Kyle Arson
put down the fastest lap, and SVG's was eighth fastest, his teammate Connor Zilch was fourth
fastest, we'll get to him a little bit later, but with what SVG's been able to do, it's no
surprise that he is the odds on favorite, but Kyle Arson has won on road courses before in his
career, I believe he's won some in the next gen car, especially since he's gone to that five
car, that's when his road course wins have come through, if I remember correctly, I think he's
maybe one on the roll, I think he's one of Walkins Glen, so he's definitely been able to do it,
but he is on a long win list streak still, it's been over a year now since his last one back at
Kansas last year, but he did win that championship, he's still running well, he led laps at
Pocono last week, started on the front row with Denny Hamlin, and still brought home a top five,
so he's going to have a good qualifying metric, so I would expect Larsen to be in the mix, but we
talked about SVG, and what he's been able to do on road courses, but talking about the other road
course winner this year, and just slightly the points leader now, leading the whole year is Tyler
Redick, and it's kind of surprised, but it is a long season that everyone's like, wow, I can't
believe that Denny Hamlin closed the gap, but what he's been able to do, match what Redick did
earlier in the year, winning three sure races is huge, winning is that much more important with
this new format, and Tyler Redick, four wins on the year, or five wins on the year, four career
wins on road courses, he's won twice at Coda in the 45, that's the only track that he's won on in
the 45 car, because he won two races in 2022 in the eight car on road courses at Road America,
that was his first career win, and then he won in Indianapolis when they still were in the road
course, so Tyler Redick is still trying to win on some other road courses with this 45 car, but
I definitely think he has a great shot at it, because he's gonna have a great metric as well,
he finished second last weekend at Polkina, I think if he had about five more laps, he could
have been able to get to Denny Hamlin and challenge him for the win, but he knows that the
pressure's on that Denny Hamlin is now just under 20 points behind him, so Tyler Redick's got to
get back on here, two straight road courses coming up could help him out, because Denny Hamlin
isn't the best at road courses, as we said, but Tyler Redick definitely has been one of the
best in recent memory, even though he hasn't been able to win, but he's right up there,
he's I think he's had some good runs at Chicago, and then the natural road courses walking is
gone Sonoma, I definitely would expect him to be in the running, and his odds are pretty good for
the best Toyota odds, he's plus 900 to win, and minus odds for a top 10, but I think that the
manufacturer best line is something to look at, and I'll get to that a little bit later, so some
other guys want to highlight, and one guy I want to highlight from we talked about a Chevy, we've
talked about a Toyota, I want to talk about another Chevy here, a veteran driver who's been
having success on road courses in the next gen car, he's won here in the next gen car at Indian
apolis in 2023, they ran two road course races at Indianapolis in the next gen car, Redick won
in 22, and driver for Spire Motorsports number 71 Michael McDowell, that was back when he was
at front row in the 34 car, but he has proved time and time again in this next gen car that he
could compete for wins, I'm sure he would have had one by now if SVG stayed in his home country,
out with the supercars, but he ran well at Watkins Glen finished runner up, he was running,
he was out running SVG last year at Chicago, I remember in that DePaul car, until he had a
mechanical failure, I would have loved to see how that one played out, but Michael McDowell
should be no surprise that he has solid odds, if I think if he keeps his car clean, because you
never know what this track, it seems it's pretty chaotic, a lot of bumps, we'll see what happens
with McDowell, 1400 to win, good value there, top Chevy is plus 1100, once again minus odds for
top 10, and I think out of the three Spire cars he has the best chance to win out of the Spire
shop, plus 1100 for Spire win, I think that McDowell just using that open-wheel background
that he has, and just being able to do, I talked to him in the media center in Pocone,
so these next two races are very important for him to get back in the chase conversation,
and I definitely think that, you know, we'll see how strategy comes into play, whether you go for
the stage points or not, but I think McDowell definitely wants to win, and everyone would want
to win such a historic event, everyone wants to win the inaugural race somewhere, and this might be
the only time they race in San Diego with logistics, so I definitely think McDowell is going to be
hungry to try and upset SVG, he wants to beat him, he said that someone's going to have to do it, so
hopefully we'll see some more intense battles between those two veterans, SVG and Mike McDowell,
two guys with a lot of road course experience, and one more driver to note before we move on to
the fantasy aspect of through the gears, and talking about a lot of guys with success, talking
about a lot of guys with veteran, you know, experience, but switching gears now to Conor
Zillich, the rookie, only three starts on road courses, this has obviously been a really dreadful
year for him, such a big difference between the O'Reilly car and the Cup Series car, not a whole
lot of reps he had last year, I think he only had like four or five races, he was supposed to race at
Watkins Glen last year, but unfortunately he had that really terrible fall in victory lane and he
couldn't race because he had that collarbone injury, but he had good pace of Coda, but he spun out
twice, and Watkins Glen, the strategy didn't work out for him, and they get a tired cord go down,
so he has just had, he's been snakebitten everywhere, but the DraftKings odds makers took note of him,
that he still should be respected as a great road course racer with great background,
that he's minus odds for not only top ten, but top five, I think that just if everything goes
right, Conor Zillich should be able to at least grab a top ten, I feel it's been tough watching
the kids struggle this year with the the wrecks on the ovals, and the road course is not going
as way plus 650 to win, and best Chevy plus 500, it's really, I think everybody's looking at SVGM
Zillich for the top two Chevy's this week, but you could throw in, like I said, McDowell,
keep an eye on him, and we'll touch on the Fords a little bit later, some Fords I'm looking at
for some potential bet slips, so now moving on to fantasy at front stretch, we have a league
through Speedway Collective, and the way it works, you have four groups, and you have a bunch of
different drivers in each group, and it ranges from standings and resumes, because Class A is just
loaded with a bunch of past champions and top top cars as we move down the field, we'll see when
we get that later on, how you can switch it up, but for the top drivers to watch in Class A, Group A,
Tyler Redick at the top of the board, and Benny Hamlin with both averaging about 40 points per
race, but again road courses are a little bit different, but Tyler Redick definitely wanted
to watch there, we've entered into Kyle Larson as well, because he was fastest in practice,
Chase Elliott, a lot of road course wins in his career, but not a whole lot of them in the next
gen car, Christopher Bell is also one of road courses in the next gen car, he won the Roval,
he got his first career win on a road course as well at the Daytona road course back in 2021,
so a lot of interesting choices, but for me I think Tyler Redick just seems like the slam dunk
answer, and also you got to be careful with this league that you space them out, you can't just
pick Tyler Redick every single week, but I've been smart with him and saving him up, so I think I
would go with Tyler Redick for this weekend, just with his road courses, his experience and his
talent, and just it seems like the 45 teams just dialed in everywhere, so that's who I'd go with,
out of like the seven or eight drivers, and moving on to Class B, Todd Gibbs has been a very popular
pick for me this year, with how he's broken out, got his first one at Bristol, and he's another
guy who has some really solid numbers at road courses, so he definitely wanted to watch Chris
Busher, I would say is the best road course for driver, I think Blaney is right there with him,
but I think Bushers had some better performances this year in recent memory, he beat SVG straight
up at Watkins Glen a couple years ago, that was Bushers final, not final win, but his most recent
win, still looking to get back to Victory Lane, and I think that he's had some really strong runs
on road courses, he's one to keep an eye on, Bubba Wall is kind of the Denny Hamlin boat,
he's never been known as a great road course racer, I think he's been getting better
as time's gone on, and in this next-gen car got some veteran four-drivers, Brad Keselowski,
Joey Logano, and then Ross Chastain out of the Trackhouse shop, one of four entries this week,
we'll get to the open driver later on, but Ross Chastain, another guy who's won on a road course,
he won at Circuit the Americas in 2022, but then you might notice that the Group B,
since he's had such a tough year, there's no Connor Zilich on the top six of guys to wash,
but you also have Alex Bowman too, who has been injury riddled, but he's had some good road
course runs as well in the past, but doesn't have that win in that next-gen era, and going on to
Class C, Carson Osfard just seems like he's fast everywhere, had that, another guy who picked
up his first win this year at Talladega, and then Eric Jones, who's been running so well over the
past month, he's now in a chase spot, but he's another guy who doesn't seem like a top road
course racer, but he's been really killing it lately. Austin Cedric has that road course
background, I feel like he's another guy kind of in that chase ally at Camp where he ran better
in the gen six car on road courses, but I think that, again, San Diego is a brand new fresh slate
for everybody, maybe Austin Cedric could get things done and be the top Ford Ryan Priest,
been a really tough month for him. He wrecked out of Nashville, or he had a piece of a brake
rubber go through his radiator at Nashville. He wrecked at Michigan, he wrecked at Charlotte,
and poking away, ran out of gas on the final lap, and that's after he had a tough qualifying effort,
and then you got SVG, who we've all talked about, Michael McDowell is in this group, and then
just sneakily, quietly always in contention at road courses, AJ Elmendinger. I know it's been
a little tough for him this year at college because, you know, the whole transition period
between Chevy and Dodge, but I think that Elmendinger could always be a good bet to maybe get a top 10
if you're cooking up a parlay of some sorts. Other guys in this group that aren't listed,
Austin Hill in the 33, Josh Berry in the 21 as well, and going on to group D bigger,
class than usual, got some familiar faces, and then some new ones, like I said at the bottom,
that fourth track house entry this week, making his NASCAR debut, Kevin Magnuson, Formula One drier,
another guy with, you know, a road course experience, and I think that's one
to take a look at, and then other guys that are not usually listed because there's three open cars
this week, you have seven time champion, Jimmy Johnson, his hometown, his home region, Southern
California, and then Corey Hine in the 67, and Corey Hine has been able to win basically
everywhere in trucks, but he's another guy that I feel like hasn't been talked about too much
with his road course background, but in that 23 a lot of carmen, they're all fast. So
keeping on him, Riley Herps is in this group, you want to look at him as well.
And then Daniel Suarez, clearly the top of this group this year with how he's just put together
a great season, had that Coca-Cola 600 win range shortened, Todd Gillin has some pretty good runs
on road courses, and won a stage last week at Pocono, and even check with the top five,
he is going to have a good qualifying metric this week as well. But there you have it for
the group D guys, but for fantasy my picks this week, I mentioned Reddick, and then I just hinted
at some some track house guys, I feel like this is going to be a big weekend for track house. I
feel like for as much as they struggled, they still seem to have good speed with the road
courses just from the town behind the wheel. I keep an eye out for Chastain as well, because
again, you don't want to pick SVG too many times in a row, because you got to save them up. So if
you don't have SVG, maybe go Chastain. I know that you probably should have Zilch stocked from
how tough of a year he's had, but I think track house is going to perform this weekend in San
Diego, we'll see how qualifying goes from tomorrow. And then you got to go with Tyler,
I reckon that A group. Other Toyotas, I know Chase Briscoe is a pretty good road course racer,
maybe you want to go with him if you've used Reddick too many times. I normally say Chris
Rebelle too, but you know, with that wrist injury, you never know. We don't even know if he's
going to race the whole weekend. I know he'd like to, but Brent Cruz actually got some practice in
in that 20 car. I'm pretty sure today on standby, he's another great guy with a road course experience
at such a young age for him, just turned 18 a couple of months ago. But there you have my picks
for the weekend, Tyler Reddick and then three track house cars at Conor Zilch, same Angus Bergen
and Kevin Magnuson. So a couple of bets I want to look at before he close out the show,
some parlays of mine. SVG to win because it just seems like you got to keep picking him until,
you know, he fumbles, but he hasn't been doing that lately. And then I'd go with Mike McDowell
as a top three because just going off the momentum that he had from Walkins Glen, I say, and just
spires improvements as an organization this year, plus 400 for McDowell top three seems like
it's just too good to pass up, but you could substitute him maybe for Zilch or maybe Almond
Dinger if you're feeling really lucky, or maybe you want to throw him down to top five, which is
where I put Tyler Reddick. And then maybe the top 10, maybe you throw in an Almond Dinger, maybe
you throw in a Briscoe or a Larson. And you can want to expand the parlay from three legs to four
or five, but I like this one for plus 1687 with these odds. SVG with minus odds, I think,
you know, brings it down, but it just feels like the safe thing to do. And I'm sure that
if you want to go even safer, the odds aren't going to be in your favor with it. Like if you
want to go SVG top three or top five, top 10, it's going to be the minus is going to keep going
down. But I think that's a smart choice. If you want to go even riskier, maybe go make Magnuson
top 10, go kind of SVG style where he kind of took the sport by storm in that first race,
obviously you want it, but maybe Magnuson puts on a performance like that top five, top 10,
or any of other underdogs. And maybe, you know, this is kind of crazy with how
this course is that maybe there's going to be a lot of cautions, wrecks.
Can these cars handle the bumps? Will contenders crash out? Maybe you'll get some crazy,
surprising top 10, top 10 guys in here. Maybe Denny Hamlin will get a top 10. We'll see who knows.
But another bet that I crafted with the top finishing of all three OEMs. And like I said,
same two cars. We've been talking about really the whole show points. We retire the wreck in the
favorite SVG to be top Chevy and top Toyota. SVG's got to watch out for guys I've mentioned already
as teammates on the day of McDowell, maybe Larson or Elliott. But then the Toyotas,
Reddick is plus odd. So it's a little bit more of a bounce because you still have Belly,
a Briscoe you have. Maybe you throw in, like I said, a Legacy running solo. Maybe you throw in
a guy like Eric Jones or a John and Nima check maybe off of one of these guys tries to run strategy
long, but haven't talked about the Fords much of this episode, but just from how badly they've
struggled this year. And plus, you know, it seems like Penske and RFK, the two clear teams.
Maybe if you want to throw in a surprise, maybe you say top Ford's going to be Todd Gilland or
Zane Smith. But I think that Busher is another one. I think he had the, I think he was the odds on
top Ford, but I think Joey Logano had a good qualifying effort at Watkins Glen. I'm pretty
sure he qualified in the top 10, but fade a little bit. But Joey Logano, it's kind of surprising
to see him still outside the chase. I keep waiting for him to get a good rally going.
Maybe that starts this week. RFK has been struggling. Brad's out of the chase now. Priest
is out of the chase now, but Busher's still going pretty well. So that's why I still think off the
contract extension too. I think that the 17 car is going to run well. Maybe you could throw him
into a top five or a top three Parley as well. But those are the two bets I made there a little
bit safer on the Parley odds for this one. A hundred dollar bet is plus six 20 there.
But that's going to wrap up through the gears for this weekend at San Diego. Looking forward to
seeing such a historic event, cool backdrop, you know, the whole ringing in the America 250
coming up on 4th of July. Really excited to see all the unknowns come into play and see how the
teams adapt throughout the weekend. But we'll see how my bets did and we'll run it back and
review them before next weekend's race at Sonoma. We meet you back on through the gears next weekend.
Shout out to Chris Graham for producing this. I've been Michael Balfoni and we'll catch you
next time on Through the Gears. Thanks for watching.
About this episode
The hosts preview NASCAR’s Race the Base weekend at Naval Base Coronado in San Diego and dig into road-course betting angles. They discuss why certain drivers keep showing up in the odds—calling SVG an odds-on favorite and tying that to practice/qualifying pace—while also spotlighting Tyler Reddick’s points pressure and Michael McDowell’s Next Gen road-course track record. The conversation turns to parlay construction, stage-point strategy, and why cautions and wrecks could swing finishing-position markets.
