In Wheel Time Podcast: Your Go-To Automotive Talk Show Sep 29, 2023

Unraveling the Impact of the UAW Strike on the Automotive Industry: Economic Implications

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Welcome to another In Wheel Time Podcast, a 30 minute mini version of the In Wheel Time car show that airs live every Saturday morning 8 to 11am central.

It's the In Wheel Time car talk show Coming up.

We talk with Robert Hanfield to get his thoughts on the current UAW strike.

Conrad has this week in Auto History and we'll get you caught up on the stories making car news this week.

Howdy along with Mike out of this world, Mars King, Conrad along, we always need more.

Jeff Zekin, I'm Don Armstrong.

Glad you could join us on this Saturday as our show comes to its last 30 minutes for the week.

The equinoxes today it's the first day of fall.

Today A tumble equinox.

The days and the nights are equal length.

The sunsets be at the equator.

Yes, we're at the equator.

Yeah, that's good, because it's only going to get 97, so it's got to be the fall, it's got to be Yep, I'm thinking it's cooling off already.

It's already.

I mean, it's a cool, better operated socks.

The first week of the UAW strike against the Detroit 3 is projected to result in $1.6

billion in economic losses, according to estimates by East Lansing based Anderson Economic Group.

This story from Automotive News, but with 38 more parts distribution centers joining the strike yesterday across the US, that amount is expected to grow exponentially.

So far, the losses have been concentrated in Michigan, indiana, alabama, kansas, missouri and Ohio where plants are shuttered over the strike.

Uaw Sean Fain announced new locations walking off the job in 20 different states on Friday, including six GM facilities and seven Stalantas centers.

In Michigan, ford Motor Company was spared as negotiations, I guess, have progressed there.

Some 5,600 additional workers have now joined the strike, on top of the 13,000 of the 146,000 members who began the strike a week ago.

The new GM sites employ roughly 3,400 workers, including 1,600 near Flint.

The Stalantas sites employ about 2,100 workers.

Rob Hanfield is the Bank of America University, distinguished Professor of Supply Chain Management at North Carolina State University and Executive Director of the Supply Chain Resource Cooperative, and he's considered a thought leader in the field of supply chain management.

And, sir, we certainly welcome you to the show and thank you very much for joining us from, I guess, here in the Carolinas.

Yeah, I'm in Raleigh, that's right.

So, yeah, it's a pleasure to be on the show again.

I was on, I think, last month, and it's great to be here with this gang of rogues that you have.

We've been here before.

We haven't figured out well, we're representing now.

Yeah, we are, we're representing, that's it.

So I have said from the very beginning, when this is all start, we heard rumors that this was going to take place and then it came to fruition and now they're out on strike and all I could think of is not necessarily, at least in my age group.

We always think of assembly plants as manufacturing plants, and all they really are today is a symbol of parts and pieces that are made from companies all over the world, basically to put together the car that you go out and buy.

And my concern has really been with those little companies that are down on the food chain that may have 100, 200, 300 employees at the most, and those guys are going to be affected the worst, aren't they?

Robert?

Well, that's absolutely right.

And the way, there's a lot of components in any vehicle, as you know, and a lot of the direct shipments to the assembly facilities are what they call Tier 1 suppliers, and those are the big ones like Magma, lear, jci and so forth, and so they manage a whole hundreds, more than hundreds thousands of Tier 2 and Tier 3

suppliers and those are the ones that produce the tooling, the jigs, the nuts and the bolts and the screws and the plastic injection molds.

All of those components are produced by these small, really mum and pop shops that really rely on the automotive companies for their business.

And, yeah, they're going to be the ones that are going to shut down because the tier ones are on it what they call it just in time system, where they're delivering directly to the assembly line.

So when the assembly line shuts down, that that just in time system shuts down and they stop buying parts.

So, yeah, it's little guys are going to get really hurt.

And all it takes is really I mean, we learned this particularly with the microchip shortage that happened, you know, as some little plastic part that may go on the dashboard.

Well, doesn't that shut down the factory, just like an engine component does, because they can't complete the entire car?

Well, that's absolutely right.

Yeah, you only need one part to shut down an assembly.

And you know the problem is.

You know these, these small companies, you know they're there.

Some of them are living hand to mouth.

You know they're.

They don't have a lot of cash flow.

You know they don't have a lot of working capital.

So you know, when they stop getting paid or they stop having orders come in, they got to lay off workers.

And when they start laying off workers, it's really hard, you know, to start them back up again.

It's easy to shut down but it's really difficult to get all the people back and and you know the machine reading, the equipment moving again.

How long do you see this dry classic?

You know it's, I can tell you.

I think it depends.

You know, I think Ford, from what I hear, ford is going to be the first one.

They may be very close to an agreement with Ford and the reason with that?

Ford Ford, of the big three, probably has the best relationship with the UAW.

You know they're the biggest employer over the years.

You know they've they've really developed a good relationship with the UAW, believe it or not.

William Ford actually plays hockey with the UAW workers.

Can you imagine that?

I wonder if he gets a few body checks and boards right?

Just a few.

But you know they do.

They do try to maintain good relations.

Fine has actually, if you notice he hasn't said a lot of bad things about Ford.

So you know, I think I think they're pretty close to an agreement with Ford.

And historically Ford and the UAW have been more friendly towards each other as opposed to GM, who can be quite combative with the UAW.

Yeah, you're absolutely right.

And of the three, the worst, the worst of the three, is Stellantis.

And the reason is they've got a guy.

You know, their CEO, tavares, is European, he's Portugal, he is used to dealing with the unions in Europe, he lives in Europe and he's a hard nose negotiator.

He doesn't want to give anything to the unions and he's he's proposed the least amount in terms of pay raises.

And you know he's.

He's a union buster.

He doesn't like working with the unions.

So they're probably the furthest away.

And what's interesting is, you'll find, was also an electrician on a Chrysler assembly line in Cochabal years ago.

So you know he's, he's closest to Chrysler big three.

And it seems like the UAW is looking for the weak links in the supply chain to try and impact those.

That's going to spread their strike force to a great extent, To a greater degree.

You know we did a story earlier about the, the ZF plant, the axle plant, going on strike and how that's going to impact Mercedes Benz, who's not a UAW assembly facility, but how it's going to affect their ability to deliver vehicles.

So you know they're trying to spread their tentacles beyond just the UAW assembly plants, outside of the big three.

Yep, yep, that's exactly right, and so they want to create as much damage as possible.

You know they're also striking at the truck and SUV plants Because that's where the big three really make their their money right.

Suvs and trucks are their big, big time sellers.

They make the biggest profit margins on those platforms and that's exactly where they're.

They're hitting them right where it hurts.

What are the questions that you are getting now?

What are the most of the questions that you're getting now regarding the strike and the supply chain?

Well, you know, I think you know people are asking how long is it going to last and what's going to be the impact on the economy.

Impact on the economy could, could be bad.

You know the big three.

They have about 60 to 70 days of finished goods inventory.

So they've been, they've been loading up on inventory knowing that the strike was coming.

So the dealers are probably going to be OK, for you know, four or five weeks out, you know they'll, they'll have product on the lot Once they get out there, then you're going to start to see shortages and what you'll then see is dealers are going to start raising prices by as much as 10.

I've heard even 20 percent.

So you're going to see more inflation in the automotive sector and that means used car prices are also going to go up.

The other big thing that you mentioned earlier is you know the distributors.

If you're not distributing parts, then all the dealers are going to get hit because of the, they're not going to be able to service cars.

You know, if your car is in the shop and they don't have a part for it, you're out of luck.

You, you know you're gonna be driving a rental for a while and I'm seeing that for what I do right now is some of the dealers, because If you look at the industry, you know GM distributes to dealerships but you've always got in each of these big towns You've got one, two or three dealerships that become the distributor for General Motors.

You know they're the big parts player in town and there's three or four of them here in Houston that are kind of the big parts players here in town and they are starting to pull back on Allowing other dealers to select from their inventory because they want to retain what parts they do have For their customers and they don't want to run out too early for their customers.

So it's it's impacting even at the parts level, far greater than just the UAW.

It's impacting at the dealer level as well.

Well, not just at the dealer level.

But think about it.

Think about how many trucks are on the road.

How many 4gm Chrysler trucks are on the road.

And If you start, you know, putting those those warranty parts, they're now unavailable and you have trucks that break down and they can't get parts.

You know you're gonna have logistics and warehouse distribution problems as well, now too.

So you know the automotive sector.

People don't realize how it really impacts every part of the economy and you know this strike is is is Really hurting a lot of different people, not just, not just the big three and some of the people are gonna go out.

As you spoke earlier, they're gonna shut down and they're never going to come back, and and that's gonna be very impactful because the widget that they built May never come back into production and and that that's going to have a long-term effect on the business and those people are gonna find another job.

I talked about that with his part.

Yeah, let me ask you.

You know we're going into the last quarter of the year in a week and do you think that the holidays coming up are going to play a part and maybe perhaps Ending the strike?

Hey, it's getting close to Christmas.

I need my job back.

I need to have some income.

We need to settle this thing before Christmas.

Well, you know that that that may may be a factor.

You know the other people that are impacted, believe or not, are UAW workers themselves.

You know they.

They they're getting a little check, you know, from UAW.

It's not their full paycheck, they're not getting any overtime pay, that's for sure, and so you know they're gonna start scrimping as well, and they don't want to go into Christmas, you know, being broke.

A lot of one of those workers you know really rely on that.

That.

You know that that monthly paycheck, the.

The other thing that you know people have to realize is the big three have other options.

You know, if you start putting 40% wage increases and a 32-hour work week, imagine what that's gonna do to the price of vehicles in general if they just cave in and give them all that.

And you know what?

There's some really big manufacturing sites in Mexico.

I've been down there to Saltyo and Pueblo, and so I, like Stellantis has extra capacity down there, and so it's.

You know, in the longer term they could turn around and say, yeah, we'll give you what we want, but we're gonna, we're gonna move these jobs to Mexico, and that's.

That's a distinct possibility that the union needs to be thinking about and start paying him and pay, so's well.

And he also said the, the head of Stellantis is is a hard negotiator.

So that's yeah, it's very, very possible.

It is very possible and and I've been to those, those sites down there, and People work hard, they work for less money, there's no unions and they're happy for the work.

So and and they're very good.

I mean I might, the vehicle I drive is is assembled in Mexico, works great.

So you know, we got they got to be careful about what they're looking at here.

Yeah, because not only are they trying to get more for the UAW, they're going to damage America and, in turn, damage themselves, as they the big three start Offsuring more and more production.

Yeah, and I, you know, I've been looking at, you know, the demands, the way W is making.

You know, yeah, I think that the big three is offering them 20%, you know, which I think is good.

They're also offering them a cost of living adjustment which says you know, we're gonna, we're gonna, you know, map it to the consumer price index.

If the CPI goes up, then we'll give you a raise, and you know this.

This 32 hour work week, what planet are you on?

This is the United States.

No one works 32 hours, right, we all work 40, 50, 60.

Yeah, my view of that is they want a 32 hour work week so they can continue to work 40 hours and get an additional Eight hours over time at time and a half.

So you know that's.

The compounding cost of labor is Is is impossible to recover on the price of the vehicle at General Motors and Ford and Stalantis.

You know this is gonna really push the price of cars Way, way up.

You know, if you think a hundred thousand dollars suburban is expensive today, what are you gonna think in three years if they give in and all of a sudden the cost of a suburb, the average cost of a Suburbans, now a hundred fifty thousand dollars.

You know that's.

You know how.

And people start Moving away and this is I said this last week as well you know when, when the inventory wanes at the dealerships, people are gonna go start buying other brands and my personal opinion they're never going to come back to the big three if they try some of these other brands in that are available on the market that are not being impacted by the UAW strike.

I would Rob.

Rob, do you think that the UAW is kind of Really at the end of its era, that?

Do you think that that is it?

The end is near for the UAW.

Well, I think what happened is the UPS caved in to the Teamsters, gave them everything they wanted.

So UAW looked at that and says, hey, why can't we do that?

We want ours, yeah.

And so they were very much encouraged by the Teamsters.

Some of the things they're looking for they want a defined pension plan.

They haven't had pensions around since the 40s or 50s.

You know the big three are offering 401k contributions, which is what everybody else in the country gets.

You know why are they different?

Why do they get a guaranteed pension?

Those guaranteed pensions?

They go bankrupt.

Usually People you know.

You look at CalPERS, look at some of the ones that are out there.

They're not doing so good.

Well, I don't know, it just seems.

I mean, I understand the UAW, I mean we studied it, we know all about it and the power that they have, but that was back in the day when General Motors, chrysler and Ford were pretty much the only car makers in the United States.

That's not the case today and a lot of these foreign car manufacturers they're not.

They're not part of the union at all at any place.

They manufacture them overseas or, like you said, down in Mexico.

Yeah, and you know I've also spent time studying some of these other automotive manufacturers.

I spent time with Honda and Toyota.

You know even Kia and BMW, mercedes.

One of the things these guys do is, in all of those countries there are very strong relationships between management and union.

You know they don't let it get to this point.

They spend a lot of time talking to the union.

The unions are allowed to be on their board, they're allowed to have a say on what's going on.

They have feedback sessions from the unions.

And if you look at it these companies they pay almost the same wages as the Big Three.

They have the same work conditions as a union.

They just don't have a union.

They have a worker representative council.

So I think that's the difference is, you know, the Big Three have kind of put themselves into this position because of the acrimonious relationship that they've had with the union over the years.

Yeah, the only time the negotiations happen with them is when they go on strike or just before they go on strike, and then it's all.

Everybody shows up to the meeting room with baseball bats, katie.

Barthador.

They're the only two that they like to have each other.

Yeah, yeah, and you know Shelf Fine isn't making it easier.

He's no one's.

Usually these negotiations are sort of, you know, back room kind of more secretive.

He comes right out and he's blasting them in public, which you know talk about losing face.

That's not a great, that's really.

You know that doesn't help.

Well, the other thing I see is the unions complaining about what their current contract is.

Hey, fine's the one who negotiated that for you four or five years ago.

You don't hold him accountable for it either.

Yeah, I mean today they're making.

You know, the average union worker is making 60 bucks an hour.

I don't know about you, but that's not a bad wage, you know, for no education.

I could live on that, yeah, plus medical dental optical all that, yeah, all right 401k contribution.

That's a great wage and a discount in purchasing cars.

Yeah, rob, it's great to talk to you.

We thank you so much for taking the time out of your lunch here at the noon hour up there in the Carolinas, and best of luck to you.

Thanks so much for sharing your knowledge with us on all of this.

My pleasure have a great day, guys.

Thank you.

Rob Hanfield is his name, Bank of.

America University the smartest person on the show today.

There's no doubt about that.

Hey, hey, hey.

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Alright time now for this Week in Auto History, and Conrad has that.

In 1920 the first Lincoln automobile was built.

Henry Leland who founded Lincoln Motor Company in 1917 to produce Liberty V-12 aircraft for the US World War I.

He got a $10 million government contract to produce those engines and he went on and started Lincoln Motor Company.

You gotta remember Henry Leland was also the one who founded Cadillac in 1903, as he left Ford and took a floundering version of Ford and built it into Cadillac brand and didn't go on strike.

And didn't go on strike In 1959.

The valiant for all was.

I like that car.

That is me, it's you.

That is such a cool car.

Tub it out, and Mr Peabody.

I tub it out and put a hemi in it.

It was the entry level into the compact car market that was at the time dominated by the VW Beetle.

It's even my color and the original project name for that was the Falcon.

But Ford beat Chrysler to the name by releasing the Falcon in 1959, ahead of them giving it a valiant.

That car is ugly.

Well, that car is ugly and actually it didn't get the name valiant until 1961.

It's a valiant idea.

And the car was kind of the end of an arrow, with the tail fins and the quad headlights and stuff.

It kind of went overboard on the fins.

It ended the arrow before that In 1970.

More than 50 years after his passing, jimi Hendrix remains one of the most influential rock and roll musicians to have ever shredded a guitar.

Star Spangled Banner.

He purchased a Chevrolet Corvette as soon as his musical talents began to pay off.

The story goes that he ordered the Corvette the international blue Corvette from a Cleveland dealership in 1968.

And when he took delivery of it he didn't even have a driver's license.

And that car, to this day, is still unaccounted for.

So somewhere where it is, somewhere, somebody has a blue Corvette in their garage.

That used to be Henry Jimi Hendrix Corvette.

In a 1979, leia Koka, who was the elected as chairman of Chrysler.

Lee's career began at Ford Motor Company and would lead him to the top of Chrysler as vice president of Ford.

He led Ford through what I call the pony car era.

You know, they had the Mustang, they had the Bronco, they had the Maverick, they had the Pinto, so Leia Koka.

And then he's gone on to hosting the rebuild of the Statue of Liberty.

In 2006, ford GT production ends.

The Ford GT was originally a concept car shown by Ford in 2002 and in 2004 when it began production.

That was one of the quickest concept of production cars ever out there and has proven to be one of the best investment cars to make in the 2000s.

Alright, thank you, sir.

We're going to take a quick break here and we are going to be right back to wrap up today's show.

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About this episode

The discussion centers on the ongoing UAW strike against the Detroit automakers and its significant economic implications. Expert Robert Hanfield provides insights into how the strike affects not only the major manufacturers but also the smaller Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers that are crucial to the supply chain. As the strike expands, losses are expected to rise, impacting vehicle production and parts distribution. The episode also touches on the dynamics of labor negotiations, the potential for increased vehicle prices, and the long-term effects on the automotive industry and economy.

Chevrolet Corvette Ford Bronco Ford Falcon Ford GT Ford Maverick Ford Mustang Ford Pinto Hyundai Kona Volkswagen Beetle

Original notes

Tune in as we unravel the complex tapestry of the automotive industry with Robert Hanfield, the Bank of America University Distinguished Professor of Supply Chain Management at North Carolina State University. You'll learn about the economic implications of the UAW strike and how it impacts not only the automotive giants but also the smaller Tier 2 and 3 suppliers. A single part can bring an entire assembly to a halt, and we’ll discuss the potential timeline and resolution of this strike, particularly regarding Ford.

The ripple effects of this strike extend far beyond the manufacturing plants, affecting dealerships, logistics, and warehouse distribution throughout the automotive industry. We'll also touch on the effects of this strike on UAW workers and the potential repercussions if the big three move production to Mexico.

Simultaneously, we spin an entertaining yarn about the unique intersection of cars and personalities, discussing how legendary figures such as Jimi Hendrix have left their mark on the industry.

So buckle up, and prepare for an insightful journey into the world of automobiles.

Be sure to subscribe for more In Wheel Time Car Talk!

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