WAIT 60 DAYS TO BUY A CAR | Episode 925

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C-O-Y-U-C-H-I.com

It's noon here in Ventner City, New Jersey, and Red Rocks, Nevada?

No, I still believe you're in Washington, DC.

And this is Car Edge Live for Tuesday, September 16th with your hosts, me,

Ray in Ventner City, and Zach pretending to be in Nevada.

But he really is in our nation's capital.

How are you today, Anson?

I'm doing pretty good, Dad. Happy Tuesday. Glad to be with you.

That was a very subdued intro.

But, you know, I'm not going to question it.

I'm here for it.

CarEdge.com, folks, if we can help you out with anything,

it's our privilege and our honor.

Check it out back at CarEdge.com.

Whether you're buying a newer used car,

need Car Edge Insights, researching a vehicle,

one track, your vehicle's value, insurance, warranty,

even the AI negotiator, we got it all.

Back at CarEdge.com.

We do have a sponsor for today's program,

so we'll talk about our friends over at Delete Me

in just a little bit.

But before that, Dad,

Yes?

Found a really interesting article from Matt Hardegree

over at the Autopian this morning.

Why I would wait two months to buy a car,

but not much longer.

We've got this article plus some data from Edmunds

that I thought would be interesting to review,

but let's start there, Dad.

Wait 60 days to buy a car.

We're going to talk about what Matt sees here,

but do you agree or disagree with that hot take?

60 days, 60 days.

That would put us into the latter part of November and December.

I concur.

I agree.

I think that would be a wise move, absolutely.

And I also agree.

I wouldn't put, but not much longer,

I would put, but not past December 31st.

There you go, folks.

That was today's show from CarEdge.

We hope you enjoyed.

Sorry Delete Me.

You are not going to be able to do your,

no, okay, so Dad, so.

So the good, wait, so basically you're telling me

the good news is I get paid for doing a whole show,

whether we do it in a minute and a half

or whether we do it in 30 minutes.

I'm just saying, man.

Well, you know, I'm going to get to the point more off.

Your ship's going to skyrocket.

Let's break this down a little bit, Dad.

Why is your rationale?

And let's use, let's actually leave EVs to the side

for the moment.

None of this, what we're about to talk about

applies to EVs.

Just asterisk on this whole conversation.

Let's talk about it.

Why 60 days?

Why is that actually sound advice from Matt?

And again, we'll look at his data points in a second here.

Why is that sound advice?

And then I love this question from Rich.

How much cheaper are things going to be in 60 days as well?

Those are the two questions I want to start with.

Well, why 60 days?

I believe the Fed is meeting today

to discuss a possible Fed rates decrease.

Yep.

So that will have a minute impact on current monthly payments.

I believe today the average new car rates are about 7%

and the used car rates are 10 point something percent.

Will they go down significantly?

Not significantly.

Will as the Fed rates go down and money gets cheaper

for these lending institutions,

will it become cheaper for the manufacturers

to offer subvented interest rates 0%, 0.9, 1.9

to top tier credit users?

Yes, it will.

So I would think we're going to see, to some degree,

a decline in interest rates and an increase

in the amount of manufacturers

that are willing to subvent those interest rates

to offer low interest rates and lower payments.

And as prices go up a little bit,

I think we will see the manufacturers at least

towards the end of the year offer larger incentives

both to the dealers and the customers

in order to move the metal before January 1st.

Yeah, I agree with that.

And I think one of the things, excuse me,

that Matt in his article calls out really nicely

is we have a growing gap between the average MSRP

of a new vehicle and the actual transaction price

of that vehicle.

And I think this speaks volumes to incentives,

the fact that the MSRPs can go up and up and up.

But when the vehicle ultimately does not sell,

the manufacturer has to step up and incentivize

the sale of that vehicle.

Blue line here is the average MSRP for a new car.

And we're going to stick on this chart for a while

because it is insane what has happened.

Look, all the way back to January of 2021,

the average MSRP for a new car was between 40 and $45,000.

So $42,500.

And they were transacting below that, which makes sense.

New cars typically do not sell at MSRP.

New cars typically sell below MSRP.

And then you can see MSRPs have just gone up and up

and up the current average MSRP

for a new car that is for sale is over $50,000.

It's right there, you can see it.

The average transaction price, however,

is significantly lower.

The average transaction price for a new vehicle

is around $48,000.

About 48,000, I think.

Which you can see that gap there is wider

than it traditionally was pre-pandemic

or even a little bit post-pandemic.

And I think, again, that's because we're ultimately

seeing the manufacturers having to step up

and the dealers having to step up with discounts here.

Well, yeah, because as things have grown tighter

for more and more people financially,

it means that the manufacturers and the dealers

have to step up in order to encourage those

who do come in to buy by discounting

more than they might have been doing in the past.

If you're selling vehicles to a smaller subset

of the population, excuse me,

then that subset that is available to purchase cars

can become a little pickier as far as what type of deal

it's gonna take for them to say yes.

And so some of the leverage has swung back to customers.

Because A, there's fewer customers

and those fewer customers that are out there,

in many cases, are better informed

and they're using that leverage to their advantage.

So I think, I mean, I believe the average discount

was a little over $2,100.

I think we could continue to see those discounts

go up to a degree with continued incentives

in November and December.

I've always felt having spent 43 years in retail automotive

that the absolute best time to buy a new car

and in many cases, even a used car

were the last two months of the year

because that's when the manufacturers

were the most aggressive with their incentives

in an effort to hit their annual sales goals that they said.

Not to mention, dad, this year,

we have a slower model year turnover

than we've seen in any prior year.

The manufacturers have delayed, delayed, delayed,

bringing to market their 2026 model year of vehicles.

If I'm a dealer sitting on a 2024 or 2025 new car,

if I'm not getting rid of it around Black Friday

or into the Christmas holiday or especially by New Year's,

egg on my face.

Like that is not a situation a dealer wants to be in,

nor does the automaker.

And so I think that's why I agree with Matt here

and I agree with you.

If you're in the market for a new car,

yeah, waiting 60 days and looking at the prior model year,

which is the majority of inventory still for some brands,

you are set up for success.

We've talked about it for years here on YouTube.

The end of the year for new cars

is the absolute best time to buy a car.

And I think this year we're getting set up really nicely.

The Fed rate cut will ultimately drive down interest rates,

even for sub-vented programs, but even more broadly.

Will it be massive?

Who knows?

Probably not, but I think we're seeing

with that prior chart of MSRP versus average transaction

prices, the manufacturers having to step up with incentives

and the slower model year turnover,

it's more leverage, more leverage for the consumer.

Yeah, no, absolutely.

And it just, that's why I agree that you can wait 60

days, you know, max, what's today, the 60,

max about 74 days.

Okay, it gives you, you have until December 31st

to be able to take advantage of what's going on.

If you wait past December 31st, you made a mistake.

Yeah, you're talking about, oh, go ahead, sorry.

Your best opportunity is between now and then.

Let's take a moment, dad, to inform folks

on how they can avoid making a mistake.

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Okay, so let's actually do a live experiment here, Dad,

if that's okay.

Of course.

All right, so I'm gonna go to the CAREDGE car search.

But before I do, I'm actually gonna take a trip

down memory lane really quickly.

We were just looking at,

if I'm not mistaken it was yesterday,

two days ago, something like that.

We were looking at the inventory situation for new vehicles.

And I gotta give a quick shout out

to our friends over at Cox Automotive.

They just updated their whole data center.

So it looks all nice and pretty.

We really appreciate that.

But the chart I wanna look at is right here,

August Day Supply of Inventory by Brand.

Let's go to Ramland.

How's that sound?

Let's do a live experiment with Ram.

And then we can also do Jeep.

They were the target of yesterday's show,

so we'll start there.

So let's say I'm interested.

I'm gonna go to the shop new up here.

And let's start with Ram, like I said.

Alrighty, Ram.

Let's just look, we're in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Okay, got it.

Let's look at 2024's really quickly.

There are 100, what was it?

108,000 new Ram vehicles for sale nationwide.

Let's just look at 2024's.

There are still 3,843 new Ram pickup trucks,

new Ram vehicles that are 2024's out there, Dad.

370's, look at these MSRP's.

377 days on the lot.

Supposedly only 44 days on the market for that one.

I'm not buying that.

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

How could that possibly be as a 2024?

I mean, really, how could that,

maybe they just dealer traded that truck

from another one of their,

shifted it from one of their dealer to another

so that they could show it only being in the market

for 44 days.

366, this is a tradesman, Dad,

but it's got the Cummins engine,

so there you go, it's 74 grand.

So these vehicles that I've pulled up here.

Yes.

We've got some fleet vehicles,

so okay, that's a little bit different.

But let's say this one,

let's just hone in on this one.

Okay.

2024, 2500 Cummins engine,

the dealerships had it for 663 days,

84,565 dollar MSRP.

If I weighed another 60 days,

I don't think as a customer,

I'd have to be too worried about this thing

flying off the shelves, right?

Well, it hasn't flown off the shelves yet,

probably because it's too heavy.

So Dad, 60 days from now,

if I'm the owner of Chapman, Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep,

and Ram, at Scottsdale, Arizona,

or I'm the general manager,

I mean, I'm saying do whatever you gotta do

to get rid of this thing, right?

Well, one would think so.

I mean, you don't want it to celebrate

a second birthday, that's number one.

You have to rule out allowing it

to celebrate a second birthday.

It is not like a fine wine.

It is not getting better with age,

especially out in Arizona.

Okay, you know, every year,

they only experience 120, 130 days

where temperatures are 100 degrees or hotter.

That's not good.

That's not good for the interior.

That's not good for lot rot.

The rodents in that area love what goes on under the hood.

They look at these vehicles and they go,

get your family, get your friends,

brand new condominium here,

a Chapman, Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep, and Ram.

We got brand new condos for everybody.

So you have to check under the hood.

You have to make sure the rodents

haven't eaten into the wires.

Batteries have gone dead.

It's only gonna get more expensive

for them to continue to sit on that truck.

And this is a 2024.

I wanna just continue.

We're gonna make sure we're gonna do this.

We're gonna look at 2025s.

So it's about to be two model year,

two model years old come January 1st.

They already have 2026s out there that already is.

It already is two model year goals.

They already have 2026s.

So I would think if it's an $84,000 truck.

Yeah, what price would you be willing to go on

an $84,000 truck that's two model years old right now?

Probably 60 to $65,000 perhaps.

I think you need to get at least 20% off.

So 20% off would be 17 grand.

That would take you down to 67, okay?

And I think there's more room

because they need to get rid of it.

So it should probably fall somewhere

between 60 and 65,000

or they can hold it for another year.

Thinking that like a fine wine,

it's gonna get better with age

and in this case, it will not.

Let's do another one, Dad.

So that was 2024 model year.

Let's just do 2025 really quickly.

Bear with me.

I mean, what are tires gonna cost for that thing

after it's set for 700 days?

So think about it, 60 days from now.

Yes.

What would we say?

It'll be October or November.

I mean, we're moving into early December.

So we're a month out.

60 days from now, we're a month out from 2026.

Ram still has nearly 50,000

new 2025s out there for sale.

That's a lot of inventory.

It is.

Look how expensive they get.

This is a Ram 2500 Laramie, 90 dollars.

Well, there you have it.

You know, apparently people in Scottsdale have money.

They might not have brains

because if they're spending their money

on those pickup trucks, they should be spending.

If they're gonna spend that kind of money,

go buy yourself, I don't know,

go buy a Porsche or something, a BMW.

Wouldn't that not a pickup truck?

Let's come back here, Dad.

So that was Ram, which is kind of like,

you know, the brand with the worst inventory situation

in the United States right now.

And you can see there, most of their inventory

is not 2026 model year vehicles.

Let's do a different one.

What you just showed was almost 4,000 2024s

and it was 58,000 2025s.

So that's like 62,000 of the 108,000 trucks

that are out there.

So they've only got like 46,000 2026s out.

That's, they got a long way to go

to get rid of that old inventory.

And I don't think it's gonna look much better,

60 days from now.

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So let's do a different brand.

Let's look at a different brand.

Let's do one that's a little closer

to the industry average.

Let's do Mazda then.

You and I love looking at Mazda.

They have an 84 days supply.

So let's come back over here.

Yeah.

So now we're gonna change from Ram to Mazda.

So we have 85,000.

Yeah, I'm just on model year 2025.

84,472.

Yeah. 2025.

Mazda's out there right now.

Let's do this now for 2026.

There you go.

The number barely changed.

So Mazda only has 2025 inventory out there right now,

which again, 60 days from now,

we're a month out from the whole new year.

Yeah.

They're going to eventually need to push

their 2026 model year inventory.

And you've got some vehicles

like this 138 days on the market.

We had Joe Lewis from JC Lewis on

maybe a month ago now, maybe three weeks ago.

He's talking about his most aged unit.

He was willing to go way below the price

that he was allowed to advertise online.

That's something that he shared with us.

Sometimes you're not allowed to advertise

in even lower price than you would sell the vehicle for

because of some manufacturer rules.

So tremendous opportunity, I think,

even with a brand like Mazda,

which again on that chart is much closer

to average inventory levels.

There you go.

There's a huge opportunity there.

And that opportunity only gets better 60 days from now.

And we know in the case of Mazda

that the number of the CX 30s

and Mazda 3s is dwindling

and they are not going to be replacing them

at the same rate that they're selling

because they want to push the CX 50,

the CX 70, the CX 90s

because they have a higher profit margin in those vehicles

and it helps to offset their tariff expenses.

So...

And that doesn't seem to be just a Mazda specific thing.

We're seeing Hyundai taking approach.

Like we're seeing many of the manufacturers

take that approach.

Well, yeah, because they have to figure out a way

to be able to eat as much of the tariffs as they can

and still maintain a reasonable enough profit margin

to keep their stockholders and investors happy.

You know, if their net profit drops from 10%

or 11 or 12% is what it is for many of the manufacturers

and you cut that in half down to five or 6%,

that's a significant drop in net profit

and, you know, those who have invested money

and the company are going to go,

we'll get us back to closer to 10%.

You know, we're happy, but we're happier at 10%

and we're close to ecstatic at 12%.

You know, 5%, 5% we're okay,

but we don't want to be there.

So at a certain point, there will be pressure

from stockholders and investors for these manufacturers

to get back to the profit,

the net profit margins that they had prior to all this.

The crux and all of it though,

you can keep raising prices, but we know it happens.

That's that chart we were looking at

before you keep raising MSRPs,

but you get a wider gap between the MSRP

and the actual transaction price

and you ultimately get changes in strategy,

which I want to hit on here in just a moment.

But before we do, from Matthew, thank you Matthew,

I appreciate the kind contribution,

but pop, I can't wait 60 days.

The Cayman GTS exited production yesterday

and I got to wire the full MSRP plus taxes and tags

saying no to all the dealer extras though.

All right, so from Matthew with his Porsche,

don't wait 60 days, but for everyone else out there,

thinking about buying a new car,

use the next 60 days to be doing your research

and time up a great purchase at the end of the year.

I'm pretty sure for Matthew, the vehicle he's buying,

there's not gonna be any distressed merchandise sales

on those anytime soon.

Okay, so let's talk about changes in strategy

to try and reconcile this affordability crisis

and the need to still make money.

We talked about it a bit yesterday,

RAM mid-sized pickup coming in 2027.

We talked about the other piece though,

electric truck canceled.

This is actually huge news from Stalantis.

They have a mid-sized pickup truck coming in 2027.

What's great about mid-sized,

it should be a lower price

than their full-size vehicles.

Well, it better be.

And it comes on the heels of canceling

the electric vehicle that they have been producing

also in the same breath.

We have Ford cutting 1,000 jobs over in Germany,

electric car plant, a mid-week EV demand.

So let's talk about this, Deb.

This is RAM's attempt

to try and address the affordability crisis.

They're producing a new mid-sized pickup truck.

Well, if you can't make the full-size pickup truck

affordable enough for most people,

then the way to counteract that

is to produce a smaller mid-size pickup truck

at a lower price point at what would have been,

perhaps, the entry-level price point

for a full-size pickup just a few years ago.

And you see it with Ford, the Maverick sells well.

We'll see it with the mid-size RAM pickup.

You know, the mid-size Chevy and GMC pickups sell well.

Yes, you know, people prefer a full-size pickup,

but if you are one of those types of people

that has to have a pickup truck,

but you can't afford that full-size pickup truck

that you yearn for, you might find it more than acceptable

to purchase one of these smaller mid-size ones

at a lower price point that are equipped nicely

and provide you with enough of the utilitarian aspects

of a pickup truck that you probably aren't

going to be using anyway.

To your point, Ed, there's pressure

to maintain some level of profitability

at these automakers on one side.

Yes.

And that would, you know,

the easiest way to improve profitability

is raise the price.

And there's pressure on the other side,

which is customers can't afford these price points.

I go back to, again, this incredible chart

that we have from the Autopian that shows MSRPs,

that's the blue line of new cars,

and average transaction prices, the red line,

they've never been more further apart

than they are right now.

How do you reconcile that?

Try and make high-profit mid-size smaller vehicles.

Maybe this is the beginning of a reversion

back to smaller vehicles.

That would be a beautiful thing, wouldn't it?

Well, there are many Americans out there

who would tell you it would not be.

You know, for many others, you know,

it's, there was a time when what most of your market

manufacturers were referred to as land yachts.

They were huge.

I mean, the sedans, the convertibles,

they were just massive in size and weight and scope.

And then, you know, we had oil crises

and gas crises and all of a sudden

what became important were smaller cars

that got good gas mileage.

And everybody was suddenly trying to compete

with your smaller Asian cars.

And, you know, the American companies came out

with smaller cars.

And somehow we got away from that

and we got into these big-ass trucks

and big-ass SUVs.

And, you know, I'm pretty sure the average family size

hasn't grown as quickly as the size of the vehicles

that people purchase.

I could understand where people go,

well, you know, I need something a little different

because I've had a baby.

Okay, a baby, one baby.

That doesn't mean you go from, I don't know,

say afford escape to an expedition.

So, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea

for us to figure out how to live with smaller things

that are capable of actually doing

the things that we need them to do.

You know, you've been in Europe,

cars are a lot smaller there,

streets are a lot narrower.

I wonder, though, Dad, could this be

a reversion back to that?

We're seeing, what's interesting about the strategy

of a RAM, which is the most easy manufacturer to harp on

because they have the worst inventory situation,

they're going back to Hemi Engines

and they're doing that at Jeep too,

and they're going to mid-size.

Maybe there's a world where you have smaller trucks

and bigger engines, I don't know,

as a customer I could get pretty behind that.

And again, your point earlier,

there's pressure to maintain profitability,

there's pressure from consumers to get better prices.

Let's come back to the chat here, Pops.

We've got from Matthew, again,

appreciate you, Matthew, so much.

Pops, fret not, the flat-spot tires,

great used tire market exists,

just replace the Cayenne fronts with new Porsche spec tires

for $400 versus $1,200 at the dealer,

a great reminder that you can save money on parts and service

by not necessarily doing everything through the dealership.

That is correct, yes.

And we've got here from Softball by Fat,

appreciate this, great name as well.

Thoughts on buying the extended warranty

from the dealership when buying a new car?

Shop it, please.

You can absolutely, of course, buy the warranty

from the dealership.

Our strong recommendation is shop the quote.

You can go to caredge.com slash warranty,

we have a partner, Fair.

They've helped hundreds of car edge community members

get a great deal on their extended warranty

on their vehicle service contracts,

so please, please, please.

Definitely consider it if you're interested in it,

like consider the idea of an extended warranty,

but before you just agree to what the dealer's selling,

get a competitive quote,

get one through caredge, go to caredge.com slash warranty,

and at least have that in your back pocket.

Do you agree, disagree, pups?

No, absolutely, the unfortunate reality

is that the vast majority of people are financing vehicles.

And so they, if they go for an extended warranty

in many cases, they do it at the dealership

because they can put it into their monthly car payment.

There are, and the dealers know that

and the prices that you're being charged

are, in many cases, significantly higher

than what you would pay if you shopped.

And I believe Fair does it on a monthly basis.

We do, yeah, that's part of why we partnered with them

is they figured out how to do monthly.

When we explored doing it monthly, Dad,

we had like, we were getting quoted interest rates

of like 20 plus percent.

They figured out how to do it way cheaper.

So yeah, definitely monthly's a good option,

but don't know, or don't think

that you just have to do it at the dealership.

You do not.

You're, even if you wanted to buy it at the dealership,

shop on our website, call other dealers

that sell that make in your area

and say, hey, I just bought X at your competitor,

but I would love to buy an extended warranty.

What would you charge me?

And you might find that they would,

especially if the finance manager

is close to a bonus level,

that they might take a short deal on an extended warranty

to hit a pay increase by doing that.

So yeah, shop.

And I see some comments about California.

One of the great things about California

is it's actually a regulated insurance product there.

And so you actually have a set profit margin

in the state of California.

I remember when we used to operate there,

I think it was like you could make 300 bucks per warranty

or 1300 bucks per warranty.

So, you know, you cannot really negotiate in California.

You just have to see if you're working with a group

or whoever, that's at that higher price point

or that lower price point, which is pretty easy to shop.

So yeah, California to a degree sort of almost

with flat markups there protecting those consumers.

Let's come here from Rich.

Thank you, Rich.

I worked at General Motors

and they pretty much gave the small car market to Asia.

They chased the most profitable vehicles.

Yeah, that's what we've seen.

But again, I'm coming back to,

maybe this is the time because of the two forces at play,

more profits and affordability.

This and growth in the auto industry is stagnant, dad.

It's not like the car market's growing.

The only way to make it grow would be cheaper price points.

How do you make cheaper price points and more profit

smaller than equals?

Well, and the one thing that we've seen at GM

is they have committed greater resources

to bringing in less expensive vehicles.

There's the tracks, there's the small Buick SUV,

there's some small other Chevrolet vehicles.

They, a lot of them are imported

from South Korea or China,

but they are much lower price points.

So yes, at one point in time, they gave that all up.

Okay, they absolutely gave it all up

just to chase the profits of their big SUVs

and their big pickup trucks.

And they're, at least GM is making a concerted effort

to bring in some lower price point vehicles

to appeal to a much broader audience.

Yeah, they absolutely are.

Look at the Chevy tracks, for example.

Yeah, yeah.

That's a perfect one.

Couple more comments here in the chat, dad.

We've got from Bob.

Thank you, Bob is a zero down lease realistic

for 780 FICO, but cannot prove income.

Well, now when you say you have a 780 FICO,

is it auto FICO score or just a general FICO score

because they're two different FICO scores

that they look at for leasing.

And they're interested in your auto FICO score.

If your past credit history is significant enough

to show that you've always handled your credit well

and wisely, then even if you can't prove your income,

they might not ask you to.

So it depends on the depth and breadth

of your credit history.

Here and me folks, do a quick Google search,

car edge, what credit score do dealers use?

Our guide will pop up right there

and can help you out immensely.

Also, earlier, thank you, Matthew.

Appreciate the contribution.

Look up car seats as contraception paper.

Do that offline.

I'll do that offline.

Appreciate that, Matthew, for the kind of contribution.

Eric, saying you always say get the OTD price,

but I worry about the percentage of the car loan

costs a lot more over the years.

Multi-step process here.

Yeah.

Focus on the OTD.

If you have a pre-approval for your financing,

ask for the buy rate, kind of like all together.

It's not one or the other, it's all together.

Yes, it's a recipe.

Yeah, it's a recipe and there are multiple ingredients there,

not just the one.

Okay, pups, let's call it a show for today.

If we can help anyone with anything, of course,

caredge.com, we've talked about it a handful of times

on today's program.

We have all sorts of tools, products and services.

If you're interested in our concierge car buying service,

hundreds of people every single month take advantage

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You can check it out back at caredge.com,

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See where the adventure takes you.

Let your heart drive you.

Let your mind wander.

Yeah, let your mind wander back on caredge.com.

Yeah, absolutely.

All right, dude, I'll get in the car.

I was going to say, are we doing this again tomorrow?

Something tells me we'll be here.

I'll be here.

All right, I'll be here, too.

Terrific, thank you, everybody.

Love you, everybody.

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WAIT 60 DAYS TO BUY A CAR | Episode 925

Dodge Ram

Porsche 911

Mazda Cx50

Mazda Cx70

Porsche Cayman

Ford Maverick

Ford Expedition

Ford Escape

Porsche Cayenne

About this episode

Original notes