A quota system is a rule that caps or controls how many cars can come in. It’s basically the government saying, “Only certain amounts and certain types can enter,” and it decides who qualifies.
Landed imported price means the full cost after the car arrives in the country, including shipping and import fees. It’s the “all-in” price used to decide whether the car qualifies.
Battery electric vehicles are cars that run only on electricity from a battery. No gas engine is involved, and that matters here because the rules are based on the type of powertrain.
A plug-in hybrid can run on electricity and also has a gas engine. You can charge it from a plug, and that’s why it’s included in the rules being discussed.
Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver are big Canadian cities. The host is basically saying these are the places where the battery-electric cars would end up being sold.
BYD is a Chinese company that makes cars, especially electric ones. The hosts mention it because people in Texas are starting to notice BYD vehicles and ask what they are.
This is a proposed U.S. law meant to limit Chinese cars from being sold or used in the country. The key idea is that it targets connected cars—vehicles that can communicate over networks like cell service.
Connected vehicles are cars that can communicate with the internet or networks using built-in hardware. That lets them do things like remote updates, tracking, or sending vehicle data back to the manufacturer.
Term
fifteen percent steak
The law being discussed uses a percentage cutoff—if a Chinese company has more than a certain ownership share, the car could be treated differently under the rules. Here, “stake” means an ownership/control percentage.
Mercedes is a well-known luxury car brand from Germany. The hosts bring it up because the proposed law might affect it depending on ownership or business connections.
Bipartisan support means people from both political parties are backing the same idea. The hosts mention it because it can make a bill more likely to move forward.
“Data protection” means keeping a car’s information secure. Here it’s being used to argue that the car’s connected systems won’t share sensitive data with the wrong place.
Volvo is a car company that sells cars around the world. Here, they’re being discussed because the U.S. government allowed Volvo to use Chinese tech in its cars, based on claims about protecting data and cybersecurity.
“Commerce” here means a U.S. government department that deals with trade and business rules. The discussion says they accepted Volvo’s argument about protecting data when using Chinese technology.
In this context, “cyber equipment” means the electronics in a modern car that connect to networks and send/receive data. The worry is that those systems could be used to send sensitive information overseas.
The Chrysler Pacifica is a minivan, which is a family-focused car with a lot of room inside. Because it has flexible seating and a large cargo area, it can be used to carry extra items or equipment. That’s why someone might talk about filling one with gear and still having space to use it.
The Ambassador Bridge is a big bridge that connects the U.S. and Canada and is used a lot by trucks. They mention it to illustrate how cars could cross into the U.S. from Canada.
Place
Gordy Howe Bridge
The Gordie Howe Bridge is another bridge between the U.S. and Canada used by trucks. They mention it as part of the example of where cars could cross into the U.S.
The “Justice Department” is the U.S. government’s law-enforcement and prosecution agency. They’re mentioned as the kind of authority that could investigate or act if there’s wrongdoing involving data transmission.
They’re talking about government rules meant to limit Chinese-made cars from being sold in the U.S. The goal is usually to protect domestic automakers or address concerns about competition and compliance.
They’re describing rules that restrict some Chinese technology—both the physical parts and the software. For cars, that can matter because modern vehicles use lots of electronics and apps to connect to networks and services.
They’re talking about new car factories that are expected to start producing cars. “Coming on stream” just means the factory is finally up and running.
They’re talking about whether building new factories actually makes money. The question is whether the investment will pay off instead of just costing a lot upfront.
“Body on frame” means the car’s body sits on a separate metal frame underneath. It’s a common design for pickups because it’s strong and can handle work-duty use.
It means the new factories are supposed to make cars that would have been imported instead. So the US-made cars “take the place” of foreign cars in sales.
VinFast is an electric-vehicle company. The speakers mention it as one of the brands building new plants and worry there may be too many cars chasing too few buyers.
Scout is a vehicle brand mentioned in the context of new factory plans. The point is that more brands are building plants, and the market may not be big enough for all of them.
It means the factories could be able to build more cars than people actually want to buy. When that happens, companies may have to discount or produce less.
Brand
eight
The transcript says “eight,” but it’s not clear which car company that refers to. It’s mentioned as one of several new-plant players in the same list.
Overcapacity means there’s too much factory production compared to what people are actually buying. When that happens, companies may have to lower prices just to keep making cars.
Tool and die are the specialized machines and molds factories use to make car parts. The point here is that the US needs more of that know-how and equipment, not just final assembly.
Subsidized means the government helps pay for part of a company’s costs. The host is saying Chinese car makers may have advantages because they receive more help than competitors.
Industrial policy is when the government tries to help certain industries grow or compete. Here, the debate is whether the administration is doing more than just using tariffs.
Fuel economy standards are rules that push car companies to make cars that use less fuel on average. To comply, manufacturers often redesign engines or add hybrid/electric tech.
Emissions are the harmful gases a car puts into the air. Rules about emissions can push automakers to redesign engines and add cleaner technology.
Term
Euro six, Euro seven, Euro twenty
“Euro” standards are rules in Europe that limit how dirty car exhaust can be. Higher “Euro” numbers mean stricter limits, so car makers have to engineer cleaner cars.
Different countries can have different rules for what cars are allowed to emit. If the rules don’t match, car makers may have to build different versions for different places.
General Motors (GM) is one of the major US automakers, and the speaker references working there “through the order through delivery.” That context is used to argue about how vehicle orders translate into real production and deliveries—important when discussing new plant commitments and demand forecasts.
Electric vehicles are cars that run on electricity stored in batteries. Instead of using gasoline, they charge the battery and drive using electric motors.
“Battery stuff” means policies and investments that help build EV batteries and the supply chain around them. The discussion is about whether those investments still make sense as the market changes.
Charging stuff is about the infrastructure for plugging in EVs. It includes building and supporting charging stations so people can actually charge their cars.
Term
bed of installation
This phrase sounds like a mis-transcription, but the idea is that the policy had specific rules about where things get built or installed. Companies had to meet those rules to benefit.
Energy storage means saving electricity for later instead of using it immediately. Batteries can store power when it’s available and release it when it’s needed.
Ford is being mentioned as another car company that could be affected by battery production shifting toward storage. The idea is that batteries might be used for the power grid, not just cars.
Tesla is an EV maker, and the hosts are saying it also has connections to battery technology beyond just cars. They’re using Tesla as an example of who might benefit if batteries are used for grid storage too.
Brownouts are when the power grid can’t deliver full power, so lights and appliances may dim or performance drops. The hosts are saying battery storage could help stabilize the grid in those situations.
Electric cars use high-voltage electricity. A “400-volt architecture” means the car is built to run on a system around 400 volts, which helps determine how fast it can charge at fast-charging stations.
Fast charging stations are public chargers meant to add a lot of electricity quickly. How fast you can charge also depends on your car—some EVs handle high-power charging better than others.
Brand
Stillantis
“Stillantis” likely refers to Stellantis, a big car company that sells many brands. They’re being discussed in terms of their plan for electric and hybrid vehicles.
A powertrain is what makes the car move. It includes the engine or electric motors and the parts that send that power to the wheels. Here, they mean buyers can choose what kind of “moving system” the car uses.
BEV means a battery-electric car. It doesn’t use gasoline to move; it runs on electricity stored in a battery you charge. In the episode, they’re comparing BEVs to other types like hybrids.
Brand
Leap
Leap is a car brand mentioned in the episode as part of the discussion about Chinese EVs coming into Canada. The point is that not all brands offer the same mix of electric and hybrid options.
Alberta is a province in Canada. The episode mentions it to talk about where electric and hybrid cars are likely to be wanted and how policies could affect who gets them.
“First come, first served” means whoever gets in line first gets the limited cars. The problem is it can be unfair and make it hard for dealers to plan, especially if the priority changes from year to year.
Dealer planning is how a car store figures out what cars to order and how to prepare for sales. The episode says the “first come, first served” approach makes that harder because dealers can’t predict what they’ll be able to get.
Geely is a car brand from China. The episode brings it up as another example of a manufacturer that might be affected by changing import rules and dealer access.
Allocation is how many cars a dealer is allowed to get from a limited supply. If you know your allocation, you can plan inventory and sales. The episode says dealers need this clarity to avoid uncertainty.
Term
voluntary export respect
This sounds like a misheard phrase, but the idea is a trade rule where one country agrees to limit how many goods it ships to another. In the episode, it’s referenced to connect past trade limits to today’s car import limits.
A dealer network is the chain of car stores that sell and service a brand’s vehicles. The episode is asking whether there will be enough dealers if many brands are competing for limited sales.
Ottawa is Canada’s capital city. It’s mentioned as one of the main places where dealerships would likely be set up if brands can’t support lots of locations.
Term
lift rot
This sounds like “lift off,” meaning you take your foot off the gas. The car then slows down using the engine’s drag and grip, not by pressing the brake pedal.
A “two speed transmission” is a gearbox with only two gear choices. If the brakes fail, dropping to a lower gear and easing off the gas can help slow the car using the engine and friction instead.
“Front brakes” are brake hardware on the front axle. Historically, many early cars relied more on rear braking, and the speaker claims front brakes became common around 1920 because of concerns that hard braking could cause the car to “cartwheel” (rotate/flip) during panic stops.
Term
cartwheel down the road
That phrase is describing a scary scenario where the car might tip or flip during very hard braking. It’s an old argument against front brakes based on stability fears.
“Car Collective” is the name of an automotive publication the speaker is promoting. They describe it as a mix between a normal car magazine and a modern newsletter platform.
This is the name of a website the speaker says they still run. It’s an automotive media outlet mentioned alongside their other project.
LIVE
Speaker 1: Out Online. After Hours is brought to you by Alex Partners.
For more than forty years, we have helped companies and their stakeholders around the world harness opportunity, overcome challenges, and achieve outsized outcomes. Alex Partners when it really matters and
by Bridge Stone Tires Solutions for your journey.
Speaker 2: All right, thanks for tuning in everybody to outline After Hours. Garrett,
you've got another show boy.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that this is going to be a good one because if we'd been shooting the show in the last half hour or so, people would have got a ton of information.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, guys, classify it.
Speaker 6: Agree, Yeah, these guys are going at it. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we've got to let everybody know. We've got
Warren Brown, who springs in great insights and analyzes is what's going on. And we got our friend and Collie
Paul Eisenstein.
Speaker 6: Good to have you.
Speaker 5: Both back through your shop. Nice to be here.
Speaker 6: Yeah. So, Warren, you you've been recing doing some pieces
for Industry Week magazine and in your most recent piece you were.
Speaker 3: Looking at Canada, Mexico and China and it's sort of an interesting phenomenon that you laid out there in terms of the Canadian government's increased acceptance of Chinese vehicles.
Speaker 5: Talk to us about that.
Speaker 7: Well, for both pieces, the Canada piece and the Mexican piece, there's some reality in there, but there's also some educated speculation as to what probably could happen.
Speaker 5: But the premise of the stuff was.
Speaker 7: Mexico has empty plants, Canada has empty plants, okay, and these terrorists aren't helping to actually put volume in those plants.
And so I said, here come the Chinese.
Speaker 5: They will be looking.
Speaker 7: At that particular capacity. Whether they ever export those vehicles
to the United States or not, that's not an.
Speaker 5: Issue for me. They will use that as a foundation
for Mexico, a foundation to export to South America and Central America in conjunction with what they're doing in Brazil.
Speaker 7: In the case of Canada, it's just an attempt to be more independent of the whole infrastructure. So are they
backing away from USMCA. No, are they making themselves more
independent by attracting investment. And Canada has been out looking.
They've been out to Korea, they've been talking to the Chinese.
Chrysler had a little bit of a faux pas in their initial proposal because it didn't offer as many jobs.
Speaker 5: But my two articles said they're coming.
Speaker 7: In the case of Mexico at fifty percent duty on Chinese imports, Chinese are going to want to hold markets here.
So they're looking at the two empty plants, both of them happened to be Nissan plants, and I think that they're going to make a move there. And likewise, for Canada,
both a green Field and Brampton will get somehow new product.
Speaker 5: Probably end up being partially Chinese.
Speaker 3: So what do you think the consequence of the reduced tariff on the forty nine thousand electric vehicles that Canada is letting come in from China be on that market?
Speaker 5: Well, I did for both markets.
Speaker 7: I did two baselines, and the baseline is no investment.
What happens under a no investment kind of scenario a classical way to take a look at it. In the
case of Canada, you know, it starts at forty nine thousand.
Speaker 5: It got stalled a little bit because they're.
Speaker 7: Still trying to decide who's going to play right, So the first six months are not going to be as aggressive as the second six months that we will see.
Speaker 5: But my forecasts will sell them all.
Speaker 7: No, if they have fifty thousand units, they're going to sell fifty thousand units guaranteed.
Speaker 6: But here's my question.
Speaker 2: What percentage of those might be Tesla's from China? Because
we know Tesla's already been shipping cars into Canada from China.
And my guess is, if I were Tesla, I'd race to capture as much of those forty nine thousand as possible before any of the other Chinese get in.
Speaker 7: Tesla has a portion. But you also have to understand
how the system works. It's Canada that determines what the
allocation is, so it picks companies. It's a very unique
kind of quota system some like remember the original Japanese these determine who was going to get to come in in terms of the imports into the United States, this is completely different. Antidote will go down the list and
say you, you, you, and you can come in on the first served. And as where Tesla could get some
initial advantage here, I agree with that, but in the long term it'll be byd and a couple of cherry.
Speaker 4: What determins who can come in?
Speaker 5: What Canadian government?
Speaker 4: But no, but I mean, what is the what is the checklist that the Canadian government will use.
Speaker 7: The import the landed imported price has to be thirty five thousand dollars or lower with ten percent of those vehicles.
So there's a entry bogie that they have to meet.
And then that bogie goes to fifty percent by twenty thirty.
So by twenty thirty, on a probably inflation adjusted basis, those fifty percent of the vehicles have to be thirty five thousand dollars or less.
Speaker 4: That shouldn't be hard for the Chinese.
Speaker 5: No, no, I go, they'll sell out. There's there's no
question in my mind that the Chinese will sell all right.
So I looked at the numbers.
Speaker 3: In last year, the EV segment of the Canadian market was about seven percent or one hundred and forty four thousand, two hundred vehicles. So now you're talking basically about nearly
a fifth of that being these new vehicles. I mean, so,
what makes you think that they'll sell all of them out?
Because evs are not selling wildly in Canada.
Speaker 7: But remember the whole quota system is based on battery electric hybrid plug in hybrid, and there's no quota or one hundred percent duty on gasoline versions.
Speaker 6: So the Chinese would be better off bringing in gas vehicles.
Speaker 5: Or hybrids or plugins.
Speaker 7: Yes, but they'll be they'll be battery electric wheels Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver.
Speaker 4: They'll eat them up Montreal in particular. I mean, it's
so cheap to operate navy there.
Speaker 2: So that was your no investment scenario, right about. What
kind of investment scenario do you see?
Speaker 5: Well, I see leap.
Speaker 7: You know, all you have to do is look around the globe. What's leaping? What's Sleep doing with Stilantis. I
think that they'll come back.
Speaker 5: My article says they will come back with a more.
Speaker 7: Canadian intensive solution to that, okay, beginning in twenty twenty nine, with more Canadian content, obviously more jobs. And then I
think that by D is lurking around the corner to do a green field.
Speaker 5: Okay.
Speaker 7: And then finally they have been actively You know, Hyundai once had a plant in Canada, right in Quebec, and so the Canadian government in their move to be independent, and I consider that move to be significant, and they're moved to be independent, they are courting Hyundai command as well.
Speaker 3: So okay, so if you're Hyundai, why would you do that.
I mean the Canadian market compared to the US market is small, That's okay.
Speaker 6: So so I'm Hyundai.
Speaker 3: I've got the you know, the big plants in the southern part of the United States where you know, they got capacity for building SUVs, evs, you know, basically room pickups, you name it, right, They've got that.
Speaker 6: So why would you build a plan in Canada or open up planning?
Speaker 7: This is this isn't a stage secret. Hundai is the
number three seller. Hyundai Key is the number three seller
in Canada, just just behind General Motors and Ford.
Speaker 5: They moved two hundred and fifty thousand units last year. Okay.
Speaker 7: I always say if the market is almost two million units, that sets the seeds for putting a.
Speaker 5: Module of capacity into a particular plant. And for all
I know, and this is total speculation.
Speaker 7: Now they're looking to buy that stuff from General Ingersol, from General Motors to come.
Speaker 6: In much quicker the Cami plant.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 7: I don't see anything in the press today that says that General Motors hays the plan to fill that plant with anything.
Speaker 5: Right, it's going to be empty.
Speaker 7: So the Canadian government sitting in their meetings whatever they sit in they're probably thinking this, what's going on in the telling that Carnes probably would say, what's.
Speaker 5: Going on in the United States?
Speaker 7: Well, they don't have any empty plants, and oh, by the way, there's going to be five new plants coming before the end of the decade in the United States.
Speaker 5: What are we doing?
Speaker 7: Well, boss, we have two empty plants and the Americans.
I really wrote it from a Canada centric approach. The
Americans they're full and they're adding more capacity. We're without
a couple of plants. Well, let's go find somebody that
wants to fill those plants. Because we need to be
more independent. We're going to be part of USMCA. My
article doesn't say anything about, you know, them backing away.
They'll just be more independent. And rightfully so, if Trump
is going to put twenty five percent duty on their largest export customer, Canada, one of their big I think biggest trading partner, it is right across the border. You're
sitting in those Canadian government meetings. They're saying, we need
to be a little more independent.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 7: Trump's got all the plants he needs, He's got five more coming downstream. We don't have We have two that
are empty. Let's go court somebody, and I think that
that's what's happening.
Speaker 2: No, that makes a lot of sense to me, and it would make a lot of sense for Canada. And
you know, I was just down at Hyundai's Kia plant or Kia I call it Hyundai Kiya.
Speaker 6: It really is the same.
Speaker 2: They're making five different vehicles on the same line, two of them electric, one of them ice.
Speaker 6: To No the West Point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so you could easily take that same strategy into Ingersoll, build five different models and you don't even have to export them.
Speaker 6: You could probably fill the Canadian market with it.
Speaker 5: Plus.
Speaker 7: Look, two hundred and fifty thousand units. It's as big
as General Motors. Honestly, I'm okay, General Motor sells more.
But I mean you're talking about an established player, Okay, established player in the Canadian market GM and four and Hyundai caught up to them and what six cheers? Okay, Uh,
there's room Gary to build. Does it have to be
a mega plant?
Speaker 6: No, this all isn't.
Speaker 5: You could have one shift making one hundred and twenty five thousand units of something. And what does that mean
for the United States? That was a piece of my article.
Speaker 7: You'll have fewer exports in the United States, right, so China will in the end of both of those articles, Mexico's the same way.
Speaker 5: They're coming to Mexico.
Speaker 7: If you want to do that separately, Okay, China is going to influence US production without selling one unit in the United States.
Speaker 6: Okay, explain that just fill that out exports.
Speaker 5: Exports.
Speaker 7: The more that the Chinese gobble up market share into Canada, the less and less there will be US exports filling those particular market segments. So most, as a matter of fact,
the way I estimated it, most of the increase in Canada's Chinese volume comes out of US exports. Now, some
comes out of ARAM four, some comes out of CRV.
There's no escaping that in terms of their Canada production, but most of it comes out of US exports.
Speaker 4: And how much pressure does having a strong Chinese presence in Canada and Mexico put on the United States? I mean,
for anybody who's not familiar with where we are right now, the studio is what twenty miles away from the Canadian border, if it's that much, And how many people go across that border all the time? Same thing California and other
States Texas people are used to going across and I've heard from people saying, wow, oh I saw these cars.
They'll they'll send me a note and say, what is a b y D or what is a and they they are often complimenting. Ten years ago they look at them,
they're funny. Now they go, that's a really cool carny.
People have rented them when they go across the border.
Speaker 7: They'll rent them in Canada. Right, So they may not
put a lot in rental fleets. They're only going to
do fifty thousands.
Speaker 4: Does this start to put pressure on regulators here the government here to say, you don't see it as opening up Paul.
Speaker 3: Just this week, just this week, Congresswoman Haley Stevens and US Senator Alyssa Slotkin announced the Protecting America from Chinese Cars Act.
Speaker 5: Yes, okay, And there was a couple of.
Speaker 4: Right, okay.
Speaker 3: And so the whole purpose of this is to prohibit connected vehicles from China and other adversarial nations from in the United States. This includes connected vehicles manufacturer designed in China,
as well as vehicles manufactured by a Chinese company or an entity in which Chinese companies have a greater than fifteen percent steak, which.
Speaker 8: How Volvo got in I don't understand well, which which also got to get into that, which also could cause a problem for Mercedes because there are two companies b A.
Speaker 6: I c owns nine point nine eight percent of Mercedes and your guy leading.
Speaker 5: It was almost right.
Speaker 6: But I mean it's not Julie, it's him, it's right owns.
Speaker 5: Uh yeah, that's.
Speaker 6: It's not gonna happen. I don't think. I don't think
this will pass.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I think some versions is going Oh yes, because it's bipartisan support. You know, you mentioned the two
Democrats behind it, but there's two Republicans burning Moreno, the X car dealers Blockyo, that was an that was Democrat.
Speaker 5: That was another bill. But they in terms of this
bipartisan here's how strict it is.
Speaker 2: If you're a Canadian you buy a Chinese car, you can't come across the bridge or the tunnel with you can even come across.
Speaker 6: So that that's how strict it's getting.
Speaker 4: But a lot of.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that isn't law yet.
Speaker 6: Yeah, but that's what they're talking about. Debbie Dingle has
talked about this too.
Speaker 2: But Warren, you just raised the point the Trump administration just blessed Volvo for using Chinese hardware and software in its cars because they convinced Commerce that they've got data protection and it's not going to China and it's cyber this and that and the other thing. But to me,
the administration just opened the door to the Chinese texts with this legislation.
Speaker 4: That's what I mean.
Speaker 7: That's why you're seeing some movement on other people saying, well, wait a minute, we need to step in here and make it law.
Speaker 9: Okay.
Speaker 6: So what I wonder about the.
Speaker 5: Commerce Department saying everything's okay, okay, What.
Speaker 3: What would prevent a pacifica let's say, full of all kinds of cyber equipment coming over the you know, the Ambassador Bridge or the Gordy Howe Bridge, or the or the tunnel and just sending scads of data back to China as a manufacturer, either as an individual, Yes, I don't know what would happen, but my guess is you'd be amazed at how much stuff is actually tracked.
Speaker 2: And if you were sending sensitive data, they would know it like that. I'm serious, they would know it like that,
and especially if it was encrypted, they would know instantly and then when I say they, I mean the they, the grand A, the authorities.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well whoever, you know, the Justice Department, whoever. But
I want to come back to Paul's point. There's three
things that I think are certain customers will be frustrated because the auto press all of us will write and continue to right, how great those vehicles are doing in Canada, how great those vehicles are doing in Mexico. Remember, Mexico
already in China already sells over four hundred thousand units right in Mexico already, all right, So when they get a fifty percent duty, that moves the needle for more production in Mexico than in Canada.
Speaker 5: That moves the needle for them. So customers are going
to be frustrated.
Speaker 7: Auto writers, all of us will continue to tell the public how wonderful these vehicles are, how good the technology is.
In the United States government, either in a Trump administration or whoever follows, will not let those vehicles into the country.
Speaker 5: I would bet two months salary on that, even.
Speaker 4: If they offer to put major manufacturing here. Yes, that's
where Trump keeps sending signals he wants to be friendly, but really no, I don't see it. I don't see
it at all. Zero, see I do.
Speaker 2: I you know, because Julia has already said it would love to build cars in Volvo's plant in South Carolina.
Speaker 6: And when I said, well, you know what about this.
Speaker 2: This is before this legislation that we just talked about blocking Chinese cars. You know, under the Biden administration, Commerce
came out with regulations banning Chinese tech hardware and software.
Speaker 6: So I said, what about that?
Speaker 2: The guy said, look, we sell cars in one hundred countries around the world, and we meet all the regulations of those countries, and we will do so in the United States as well.
Speaker 5: I don't disagree with that. I come from the promise.
Speaker 7: Remember we've got us now I took my Candida head off for a moment here. The United States has five
major assembly plants coming on stream in the next three years.
Speaker 9: Five.
Speaker 6: Let's go through those. So you got the forward one, right, uh, And.
Speaker 5: No evils there. I mean, it's just going to get
filled with stuff that makes.
Speaker 10: No no no.
Speaker 11: I mean there's Blue Ooval City, which they've si Tennessee truck Plannessee truck That's why that will have stuff in it that doesn't have anything in it today, right right, Lait slate right, if Slate happens, it'll happen.
Speaker 6: Scout Scout, Yeah, if Scout happens, well, you know what.
Speaker 5: I said here a couple of show in terms of the financial returns, right right, right, Yeah, that's a different topic.
Speaker 7: Rivian plus ribbans new found expansion to three hundred thousand right, been fast and fast if that ever happens. But when
the Canadian government looks at what's happening in the United States, they see five plants coming. So I asked the question
to the whiz kids in the government, if you've already got five coming downstream that may or may not pay for themselves, what do you need an extra Chinese plant?
Speaker 5: Yeah, you already got you already got it coming. Does
Canada have it coming? Nope? Does Mexico have it coming? Nope?
They'll go there.
Speaker 7: The I see the by D plant in Mexico along with the by D plant in Brazil.
Speaker 5: Taken over Latin America. They already owned Chili, they owned Chili.
Speaker 2: I'll add another too. I think Hondi is going to
add another plant to build pickups in Georgia. Another plant,
another plant. So that's we're at another plant. I think
they're going to blow out a wall and put three other walls, and.
Speaker 7: Well, line one, line two exists in many locations in the United States.
Speaker 4: Yes, it's more than just pickups. It's going to be
the Boulder, and I think they said there's gonna be three other models and Kia I was in sold just recently with the Kia people. And basically what you have
going on in career right now is a quiet little battle between the Kia side and the Hyundai side as to who is actually going to go first with all those body on frame products. But they're all going to
get basically versions of the same thing, which means a version of something like the Boulder, a mid size pickup, and as many as three more products. And so you're right,
they're going to need at least one plant here for that.
Now I'm going to lob in Toyota right which.
Speaker 6: Announced another planet. So now we're off to seven.
Speaker 7: Really, I'm trying to be I'm trying to put my best planning head on that I can.
Speaker 5: You're sitting at the Detroit three, or you're sitting at Hyundai or.
Speaker 7: Toyota, you've got to be lobbying Volkswagon you've got to be lobbying the government. Look, collectively, we got seven coming here.
What why are you going to add another another plant when we're trying to get these seven to be successful? Okay, Trump,
you win. Seven plants are coming. We've got to make
these profitable. And the only one, quite frankly, going on record,
the only one that I see as profitable, Toyota.
Speaker 4: I've done Honday too. Honday will be profitable.
Speaker 5: Prats I'll give you.
Speaker 6: Okay, given what's going on in the market right now, I mean, why any new.
Speaker 7: Plants because they've gotten well one they as as in all planning groups, and you guys are just this experienced and anybody in the world.
Speaker 5: Lons IS's latest epistle.
Speaker 7: That we're going to grow volume, Well, you know what, that discussion happens in every single boardroom in every single automotive company in the United States.
Speaker 5: They all say they're going to grow.
Speaker 6: Absolutely everybody does.
Speaker 5: If you don't say you're going to grow, you're slated for early retirement.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: You know, usually if you add a bother expected increases in sales, that comes to one hundred and twenty percent of the markets. All right, But here's my question. So
you're adding these seven plants. We've gotten up to seven.
There might even be some other little I don't know that.
We don't know how much do they offset imports? Because
what I'm getting at is the market is growing, The overall markets is not growing. In fact, I believe ten
years from now it's even going to be smaller just looking at demographics. So if these seven plants are going
to be profitable, they have to offset what would you're talking what almost two million units of capacity right easily, And so they've got an offset at least two million imports.
Speaker 6: Do you see that happening?
Speaker 5: Not two million?
Speaker 7: Because I believe in any time you sit down and do a serious look at the numbers, there's going to be a the highest proportion coming out of imports. But
all of the ones that have existing plants making and selling existing vehicles, they're going to lose market share.
Speaker 5: They will lose because I would be would gee im would be a big loser. Okay, but but more Okay.
Speaker 3: So you talked about the Rivian plant, Okay, the Georgia operation you're going to be doing. You talked about Scout,
you talked about vin Fast, Okay, you talked about eight right. Okay,
So I look at those four plants, and it seems to me that there's going to be a whole lot of excess capacity just in those four plants, because they're all making vehicles that people are not buying in vast numbers by any stretch of the imagination.
Speaker 5: Well, I will I will go back. I agree with Paul.
Speaker 7: I will go back and say Tellyota and Honda will fill those plants, and that's going to come out of somebody's.
Speaker 3: Hide, right, Okay, so that's two of the seven, yes, right, yeah, So what about.
Speaker 5: The other guys they're building?
Speaker 3: They're building plants that there are suboptimal in financial and production capabilities.
Speaker 5: Well, right, I I.
Speaker 7: I don't look at anybody else's forecast. I will tell
you even if they did an R three at Rivian, which is planning, yeah, they wouldn't fill. They would fill
one shift maybe y.
Speaker 2: So what we're talking about are seven new plants coming on.
Now we can move the conversation how many will survive because you're right, Gary, it's going to be way under capacity.
These most of these plants are going to be under capacity, probably Toyota and Hundi not, but the rest, Yes, so we're going to bring all this capacity in. Well, let's
take it out a decade, a decade and a half.
How many are still open at that time.
Speaker 5: Well, the.
Speaker 7: Again, I don't I'm on record saying that Rivian doesn't pay, Scout doesn't pay, Slate doesn't pay. Okay, Tennessee Truck plant
certainly didn't pay. Depends on what they put in there.
But at this moment, my calculations would say that Tennessee Truck Plant doesn't pay.
Speaker 5: So what happens. You're in a situation where you've built
this capacity.
Speaker 7: And now the government won't let you do any JVS in those plants with China. So yes, you could see
a pretty much slow death on some of those plants.
Speaker 5: But Rivian just raised Capital Volkswagen. At Scout they have
deep pockets, a lot as steep as they used to be.
No Bourn has deep pockets. Maybe you just be incentivize
and keep it going.
Speaker 7: But when you really think of the situation, and a couple of people have published this, and I think you've even meant done a piece on auto line, if it's really going to be sixteen million units in the US, really, really really really really no matter how hard you try, no matter how hard you pray, think about some new plants. Yeah, right,
And exports are dwindling because the Chinese are gobbling up the volume outside of the region, say experts from the US, Canada or wherever Mexico.
Speaker 5: Mexico is a free trade kind of with Brazil.
Speaker 4: That gets back to one of the more basic questions, where do you see us mc A going.
Speaker 5: On on a good day?
Speaker 7: Uh? Well, I hope because the one thing that the
Trump administration is good at inventing new terraffs, and they just invented one the other day here okay, which tiff by any other name, is a tariff Okay that consumers ultimately.
Speaker 5: Will pay for.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 5: The I hope that the people that sit down at the table, including career, really understand.
Speaker 7: That you can't tear IF America into prosperity, right, that there are there is a significant bad actor out there with maximum over capacity China, and that what are you doing? Then,
you've mentioned industrial policy on a couple of occasions. What
are you doing to truly integrate US, Canada and Mexico so it is somewhat of a force, you know.
Speaker 6: The answer to that question.
Speaker 5: Yeah, they trying to get on a good day.
Speaker 9: I said my sentence with on a good day, Okay, that they recognize that optimizing that supply chain within your largest trading block is a precondition for having successful companies in each of those countries.
Speaker 5: And if you don't have I always call it.
Speaker 7: Carrots with conditions that are agreed to by consumers. Okay,
the Biden administration policy didn't meet that goal, but you've got to step up and say, if we truly make it Fortress America, which is the title of my next piece coming out next.
Speaker 6: Week, you'll entropy.
Speaker 5: You'll just be talking to yourselves.
Speaker 7: You'll not be cognizant of what's happening in the rest of the globe, and you will wake up to find out you've lost and tariffs are not going to solve that problem. You have to have and you've mentioned it
a couple of times. Industrial policy, you've got to get
real on magnets and batteries. You got to get real.
I think Harbor mentioned it in one of your pieces here.
You've got to get real on toul and die, even if it's all cadcam.
Speaker 5: Tool and die.
Speaker 7: Right, So, if you see China as a threat and you want to onshore stuff.
Speaker 5: You have to on shore some of that stuff in Mexico to be competitive. That's right.
Speaker 4: Well, so one of the other things.
Speaker 5: So I see it as to conclude.
Speaker 7: Ring fifth, well, because Trump's not going to blink, and Grera will be fired if he blinks. Track record on that. Okay,
fifteen percent is maybe the best they will do. And
they won't raise the USMCA content to eighty two percent, and they won't raise US content to fifty percent. Will
try to do their best to integrate, to make the solution competitive for those that exist within the region.
Speaker 5: And if you don't, well then then we'll see what happens.
Speaker 6: Well heah, wait, wait, wait, we got to take a quick commercial breakup.
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Speaker 6: Knowing that a little rain won't slow down your day, That's what really matters.
Speaker 2: Bridge Done runs it by attract tires, confident control in wet conditions. Okay, we're back talkingout all kinds of things,
manufacturing capacity and things going on were just a quick reaction.
Stalantis has announced that it's going to build cars for Leap Motor in Europe and so in Stillanta's dealerships, and it's going to form a joint venture with Don Pong and Don Pong will build cars in one of Stalantis's plants in Spain, and so it in its own dealerships. Now,
what Stella is saying is, Okay, it's taking these plants from a money losing sixty percent capacity city utilization to a money making eighty percent.
Speaker 6: But to me, it's like inviting the enemy into your fort.
Speaker 7: Well, it sounds like Brampton to me, but it sounds like the next is Brampton in terms of them coming.
Speaker 5: Look, I think that.
Speaker 7: I think Europe's making a mistake in terms of that type of invitation.
Speaker 2: Okay, I personally think Europe is losing its auto industry and it's not nearly doing enough to try to save it.
Speaker 5: I can't disagree with that. I agree with that.
Speaker 7: So I think that they're making a mistake and letting the Chinese in. This is a country that sells twenty
five million units.
Speaker 5: It's A.
Speaker 7: It's a pretty big market, that's why everybody went there.
But they also have, as some estimates have done, twenty million units.
Speaker 5: Of excess capacity.
Speaker 7: Now some of that's going to go away because there'll be a shakeout, right, Well, let's call it fifteen million units of excess capacity plus what they're building somewhere else, Brazil, Argentina.
You know, I just don't see a lot of North American exports coming. But I think they're making a mistake.
Speaker 3: Okay, So if the Europeans are making a mistake visa each China, and you said before the break that you're concerned about you know, we're trying to tear if ourselves into protected from the rest of the world, and that we should be collaborating closely with Canada and Mexico to make North America strong. Correct, Okay, is keeping China out
at any cost.
Speaker 5: The goal here at any call?
Speaker 4: At most?
Speaker 5: Well, but my time frame is end of the decade, Okay, Why is it them to come here? No that they
won't be here. Oh okay, So I'm going to four
years from now, so it's not right. But why why
do I pick that date?
Speaker 7: Because we will see the performance of those seven new plants that are coming on stream in an environment that does not have the Chinese here, because I believe that some of.
Speaker 5: That legislation is going to be successful.
Speaker 7: Now post twenty thirty, let's let's let's pray a little bit here. Those seven plants are operating, they're at least
on one shift, they're making money. Then you may consider
a joint venture with a company Chinese to see how that overall approach works. But you've had time then post
us MC a new post these seven plants coming on stream, to see how they're performing. You're going to make that
decision in a much more rational kind of environment than making it today's.
Speaker 2: But I would argue at some point you do have to let some amount of Chinese in to your point so that the American industry doesn't interesting magnate exactly.
Speaker 6: They need the competitive pressure fliers too.
Speaker 5: Well, we'll see how Volvo does with their plant in Ridgeville.
Speaker 6: And all both sales are you know, a rounding era of General Motors or Ford or Toyota.
Speaker 3: I mean it's it's like they're irrelevant. I'm sorry they're
going down. They make nice cars, but you know what,
no one cares. So regardless of what goes on on
that plant, unless it's to bring out new models from a new company that hasn't been seen here.
Speaker 6: To your point, you know, byd.
Speaker 4: Little boomerang here, get to bring the question back a different way. You mentioned a minute ago the fact that
the Chinese have twenty million units of expertise? Are the
Chinese as invincible as everybody seems to be saying and as an existential threat? Is Farley has used in so
many have views. Is the US industry so lame that
they really can't protect without all sorts of restrictions from Congress or the White House or what have you? Or
again flipping it upside down? Is there a possibility that
the column the Detroit three might be able to figure it out? Maybe the universal TV project that or IT
has really is a breakthrough. Maybe the Chinese start running
into a situation where they can't depend on Beijing to essentially prop them up, with the local governments to prop them up, and that having massive overcapacity starts.
Speaker 5: To overwhelm them.
Speaker 4: Is there a flip side?
Speaker 7: Well, yeah, if if you don't use tariffs as your only tool in the kit, and you really do have a rational USMCA and you do put things in place, you know, not this knife to the next stuff that Biden did. Okay, if you really have rational stuff in
place that says, no, we're going to make the North American region of powerhouse. Okay for those that exist here
and those that are going to build here through like I said, tool anddie stuff, battery and magnet stuff.
Speaker 5: That you have that in house to be able to do.
Speaker 7: No. I think that you can be competitive, but not
against what forty manufact is in China.
Speaker 5: Okay that I have.
Speaker 7: All been subsidized one way or another, no matter what some of my colleagues in the industry say, whether that's loan forgiveness, that's.
Speaker 5: An incentive, that's a subpodye. Right, you pick one. If
the forty fall out to twenty.
Speaker 7: And the Chinese government says, you have a happy day, We're not going to continue to support that stuff, then I think the capacity will come down inside of China.
It'll be more rational, and I think that there's a chance to compete, but not just with teriffs. The worst
thing that could happen is just to use this tariff tool for the balance of the decade as the tool to say the United States Canada and Mexico will be competitive against China.
Speaker 4: I just don't do do you see with this administration anyone who seems to have a clear sense of industrial pub beyond tariffs. It seems like everybody with with the
you know, we all see it during the cabinet meetings, where basically half the cabinet meeting is spent telling Trump how wonderfull he is. What we don't see a lot
of is mister President either hear about it behind the scenes or see it where they're coming to him and saying, we've got to add this on top of industrial policy.
Speaker 5: I hope they are on top of ten.
Speaker 7: I'm not sure that the current Secretary of Transportation learn any of that stuff on Fox News when he was a broadcaster. Okay, I don't see those particular tools to
the party.
Speaker 5: I hope that somebody is doing that.
Speaker 7: Greer doesn't publicly say that in the way that he's approaching, tariffs are not going to go away. I think as
his last public comment, who in the administration that I could pick is actually advising Trump, Look, you got to have some carrots with conditions here.
Speaker 6: See.
Speaker 5: I don't see anybody, Yeah I.
Speaker 2: Do, but it's not the kind of industrial policy, And I don't even like calling it industrial policy. I call
it strategy. Let's have a strategy to make our industry
competitive because we don't have one. The Trump administration argues differently,
tariffs is one. The reduction in emissions and fuel economy standards.
It sees as supporting the industry. That's part of their
plan to help it. But the bigger problem I think
is with maybe the exception of the ford UEV platform, the modular thing, I don't see anything happening in this town to say, hey, we've got a great window of opportunity to really catch up and be competitive by the end of the decade.
Speaker 6: I just don't see it.
Speaker 2: With the suppliers, because the suppliers are the good supplier.
You know, we had Joe fadul in here. He says,
I love going to China.
Speaker 6: It's like going to the gym. That's how you get fit,
that's how you compete.
Speaker 2: I don't hear anybody else at the OEM level talking like that. I don't hear any plans of saying we
got a great window of opportunity here.
Speaker 7: You know, indeed, you'd like more skunk works going on you'd like to think it's more than that.
Speaker 2: So that you know, we know that the Chinese use common commodity components across the board, we should be able to do this. Do you think anybody at the car
companies are moving to there's some talk, that's all it is.
We know that the Chinese give theirs, the OEMs give their suppliers and or any of their suppliers way few specifications when they go for an RFQ, literally and again, Joe Fadua, they get six hundred specifications in an RFQ from an OEM in China. I've seen you know what
they get here, twenty thousand, twenty thousand. So why don't
we work on reducing all that. I don't hear anyone,
all right, but I think an issue in Warren.
Speaker 3: You you look the numbers of this all the time, Okay, I mean levels set us on where we are right now in this market in terms of capacity, in terms of the amount of capacity we have vis a v the amount of demand we have for product.
Speaker 7: I let's do demand first, Okay, demand demand in North America, because you have to look at it that way. Even
with the tariffs, Okay, there is people do buy cars in Mexico. People do buy cars in Canada that are
built somewhere outside of those two particular markets. Right, So
if you think of a North American market of being nineteen million, five hundred nineteen and a half million at two shifts, I estimate the capacity is twenty two million growing to you growing too, We have seven plans growing to twenty four million. But even at that twenty two million,
you can run a lot of those plans and three shifts.
Some have backed off of three shifts as of as this near term cost containment strategy, et cetera. Some have
gone to one shift, but the capacity out there to produce.
I look closely at paint shop capacity because that's typically a battle a bottle back. Okay, you can put tooling
up and down the street and well, well stuff in the back alley. Paint shop is a paint shop that
didn't with an ALPO tank. Is twenty two million, and
it's going to grow to twenty four million. I don't
see demand being higher than nineteen and a half.
Speaker 3: Okay, So to your point, John, if I'm sitting in an office in downtown Detroit or in Dearborn or in Auburn Hills, I'm worried about that. I'm not so worried
about the Chinese right now. I got other fish to fry.
Speaker 4: John, I want to go back to something you said a minute ago, because I think it stands on its head.
You're talking about the administration easing up on fuel economy and emissions. I actually think that that is a potentially
disastrous move because nowhere else in the world is that happening. Europe,
Euro six, Euro seven, Euro twenty, China some of the toughest emission standards coming into place. The vehicles they're buying,
whether because of demand or because of fat legislative fat, are becoming more and more different from what we're seeing in the United States. And these guys are now having
to face the prospect of designing for the US versus designing for the rest of the world. Are we creating
a situation where Detroit to try to succeed, they put their money on the trucks and the like that don't sell in the rest of the world. So all these
changes in yeah.
Speaker 6: Look, legislation agreed, But here's the reality's dead end. Troy three.
Are not designing for the rest of the market.
Speaker 2: Are the global market that's the problem, except for they've got Chinese operations designing for China for it is still in Europe.
Speaker 6: GM is not. But the reality is we don't export
that much.
Speaker 2: And we're what we do export are full size SUVs that go to the Middle East or other markets like that.
Speaker 5: But no, I agree, we've.
Speaker 4: Got two and a half to your point, two and a half coming up on four million excess capacity. But
the rest of the world, but the rest of the world would find a way to export as much as they could. That we arguing we're we're putting all of
our attention into products that with only a select number of markets. Remember, the rest of the world doesn't want.
Speaker 2: The European automakers are begging the EU to back off on its submission standards. They're begging to get rid of
this twenty thirty five ban on ice.
Speaker 6: They're begging for it.
Speaker 2: They need that, and so the I don't agree with what the Trump administration did in terms of emissions. I
don't agree with what the Biden administration did either, because it was a scam. They said unrealistically high targets that
the automakers could not meet.
Speaker 6: And then find them for not meeting them.
Speaker 2: Raising billions of dollars for Uncle Sam. To me, it
was a total scam, and the Trump administration gutting it is another huge mistake in my book, what we need is and this comes back to my industrial strategy, why can't we have regulations that say, industry for the next ten years, it's going to be very predictable, it's going to be very nicely cadenced, and you will be able to meet it. But guess what you are going to
have to invest in. You are going to have to
push the technology because we're going to keep, you know, making it more difficult to meet these emissions.
Speaker 3: Cares with conditions, with conditions, Does US industry have ten years?
Speaker 5: We'll know by the end of the day.
Speaker 7: Not to be a pessimist, We'll know by the end of the decade about these plants, about the level of what the overall demand is and affordability is, et cetera. Again,
I think post twenty thirty, before twenty thirty, I don't see it in this administration.
Speaker 5: Hopefully somebody will run for office.
Speaker 7: That articulates that this is the vision that we need for the US, for the US inside of our region, this is the vision that we need for the United States here to protect our automobile business.
Speaker 5: And this is what I'm going to do if I'm elected.
You'd like to see that.
Speaker 6: I'm not sure we all would.
Speaker 5: I'm not sure.
Speaker 6: I don't know if we're going to.
Speaker 5: Get the big mountain.
Speaker 7: The big mountain is you know everybody, everybody is in those boardrooms saying Scout.
Speaker 5: Oh you know he comes out and says, Scout.
Speaker 7: Oh, we're gonna I mean, we're with that. We got
one hundred and sixty thousand orders.
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 5: I lived at General Motors through the order through delivery.
Speaker 6: So so let me talk about this a little bit.
Speaker 3: Okay, So you know you've got these plants, but I mean okay, so Scout's coming out with.
Speaker 6: E revs and electric vehicles okay.
Speaker 5: And Nissan, Nissan, Toyota, Audi.
Speaker 7: The level of people that are going off road, and I think Adam Bernard here was here the last time I said, what there's.
Speaker 5: Nine new ones the Boulder whatever.
Speaker 10: By the time Scout gets out, no, okay, so slate okay, small electric pickup truck niche.
Speaker 5: Vin Fast.
Speaker 3: I mean a brand no one knows making it, no one knows.
Speaker 7: I would, yeah, I would say the Vietnamese still had the money to invest. That guy makes billions outside of.
Speaker 4: The United States. We saw that in a very different
way fifty years ago. The Vietnamese don't quit.
Speaker 7: Uh, correct. So that's why Gary, that's why I have
twenty thirty. It's got to play out. But if you're
just playing out in that environment and the only tool you got tariffs, and you're going to get out to twenty thirty, and you're going to look up from your desk and go, we have to let the Chinese in here because we've done nothing in the last.
Speaker 5: Four or five years in order to make this more competitive. Biden.
Speaker 7: Biden had like the battery stuff, the charging stuff, all of that.
Speaker 5: There were great ideas inside of that policy.
Speaker 7: Right saying that you have to be fifty four percent otherwise we're going to kill you in terms of, you know, bed of installation.
Speaker 5: It was not a good idea.
Speaker 4: By the way. With the battery we were seeing a
lot of the battery plants remain in the plans even though the correct all the usage for evs is gone.
Is there a practical use as they're shifting over to energy storage? Is that going to work for companies like
Ford and Tesla and some of the others.
Speaker 7: Well, I think especially out west, yes, where you know you still have brownouts and all of that stuff. No, Look,
the battery stuff is working, the storage stuff Tesla's Fords.
It's interesting. But what I don't want to wake up
at the end of twenty thirty. I think of vehicles,
not necessarily storage pull. I don't want to wake up
in twenty thirty and we're still working. Most of the
things are four hundred vold architecture still take you know, we haven't done anything. So look, it takes you twenty
minutes to charge your vehicle, get used to it, Buy a cup of coffee, spend a little more money. Customers,
US consumers don't think that way. Eight hundred volt architecture
charging in five minutes.
Speaker 5: Boom.
Speaker 7: They're going to read that in some of the vehicles that will come into Canada and some of the vehicles in Mexico.
Speaker 5: How come it only takes those folks five minutes.
Speaker 7: So I'm more worried that we get to twenty thirty and the battery stuff has come in.
Speaker 5: But where's the.
Speaker 7: Widespread use of eight hundred volt architecture to use those fast charging stations to do it in five minutes.
Speaker 5: There was one I saw the other day that said they could do it in three minutes if you went to twenty eighty on the charge.
Speaker 6: Wow.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure i'd buy that yet.
Speaker 5: No, but we're going to get to twenty thirty.
Speaker 7: I'm working on four hundred volt architecture and are only saving grace is battery storage to heat a house.
Speaker 5: I'm not sure that that's going to win in the auto bus.
Speaker 6: Isn't this because the consumer in the United States and in Canada is not all that intrigued with electric vehicles, and therefore it's less than ten percent of the market.
And if I'm sitting in one of those boardrooms, I'm saying I'm looking at ninety percent of the market. I
don't care about ten.
Speaker 7: Yeah, but I didn't say in my report that all the vehicles that were going to come into Canada Mexico were going to be BEV.
Speaker 5: They have BEV hybrid. I mean, what was Stillantis's whole pitch?
Pick one.
Speaker 7: Yeah, the consumer will get to pick what powertrain that they want to put into their vehicle, depending upon the manufacturer.
Cherry and Geely are a little different than byd et cetera.
Leap is a little different than the others, right, BEV hybrid, which is very popular. Who's to say that the Chinese
won't come into Canada with ninety or a hybrid.
Speaker 13: And then add a little ten percent gasoline in just to kind of round out somebody who wants to drive in Alberta, Okay, And it doesn't necessarily you know, Alberta is in the most popular place for electric vehicles.
Speaker 5: While because they make all the oil, they're not just coming in with BEV Gary. That's my point.
Speaker 7: They will sell those fifty thousand units and they'll sell that quota volume every single year. The thing that they
got to get out of is first come, first served, okay, which is what I talked about in the article.
Speaker 5: First come, first served is not good dealer planning.
Speaker 7: If you don't know, one year we let in by D first come first served, the next year we let in Geelee, the third year we let in a little more Tesla. And you're a B y D dealer, You're
going to want to know what's your allocation. So I
think one of the things the Canadian government has to do before September first is to say we're not going first come, first served. We're going to manage the quota
to the best for the Canadian consumer. How do you
b y d you get this?
Speaker 5: Just at the Genuary when we had voluntary export respect?
Speaker 6: Do you do a dealer network?
Speaker 5: Do you do direct?
Speaker 2: Because if you're taking forty nine thousand sales and chopping up to three or four Chinese automakers, how do you support support a dealer network?
Speaker 5: Well you could. Again, are you just sticking the big cities?
Speaker 7: I think Montreal, I think Toronto, I think Vancouver, I think Ottawa.
Speaker 14: You can two or three dealers. Customer is going to
find you, Yeah, John, they will, And that's what I think is going to happen. But if that dealer body
doesn't know whether you're going to be in the queue for first come, first served, I think they're going to change that policy to something that's a little more quote irrational.
Speaker 3: All right, this is this is the one hundred and thirtieth anniversary of something automotive one hundred and third thirty thirty.
Speaker 2: Oh so going way back, it's not we're talking eighteen ninety six, correct.
Speaker 4: That's not birth of Bends.
Speaker 6: No, No, that's before Bertha.
Speaker 5: This has got a beat very important. No, that's not
very important development.
Speaker 2: Okay, could this be the King Car in Detroit? Keep
going the King carle deal it's.
Speaker 3: Us Okay, served curved shoals that was later the quadricycle bingo.
Speaker 6: Okay, so I thought I thought you would get that like immediate were addressed.
Speaker 3: Okay, So but okay, so we've got the quadricycle. But
what's more interesting is what did Ford have to do to conduct.
Speaker 5: The test of the quadricycle? Rip out the front door?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Why take a samp? Because it was.
Speaker 7: Because it wouldn't because it wouldn't go through the door.
So he built it before it went through the door.
Speaker 6: Yes, right, so you had to knock out the frame of his carge.
Speaker 5: That's the only thing that I've ever gotten on any of your quid.
Speaker 6: All right, So what fuel would he use?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 6: Yeah, because gasoline would have been very rare, kerosene would be my guess.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would think alcohol, ethanol, yeah, okay, and okay, so this this would be this would be the last one.
Speaker 6: So what characteristic of the quadricycle is highly similar to today's EV's to today's evs, So you're you're you're driving to drive, you're driving in your quad cycle.
Speaker 5: It has four wheels, and what would what would.
Speaker 3: Be what would be a kin to way to the way you would drive one of today's evs.
Speaker 6: Why why no brakes?
Speaker 5: Exactly, that's right, I'll go. So basically you have to
lift rot.
Speaker 7: Was it was?
Speaker 8: It was?
Speaker 3: It was he had no brakes on this thing. So
basically what it was was that you know, you would you would shift it was two speed transmission. Oh he
had a trans even, so you would shift to the lower gear and then lift on the throttle and let friction do.
Speaker 6: It's magic, you know.
Speaker 2: Interesting little sideline to breaks. Most cars did not have
front brakes until around nineteen twenty because the theory back then was if you had front brakes and you slammed on the bridge, the car would cartwheel down the road.
So it was like, don't put front brakes on now.
I mean, but but you look at it for my bike.
It's certainly in the United States, and there's exceptions to the rule. But if you see a car without front breaks,
I can almost guarantee you it was built before nineteen twenty.
Speaker 7: That.
Speaker 5: Wow, there's there's a historian right there.
Speaker 2: Well, with that great trivia question, Gary, we ought to wrap up the show. So Warren Brown always great to
have you on the show. Paul really good to have
you back on. We'll do this again obviously, and Paul's
got a new oh yeah yeah about your.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, well, Gary, if I can mention you are a part of it. Actually, he came up with the
name the Car Collective, and people who want to uh check it out, you can go to the Car Collective dot stubstack dot com. I'm still running Headlight dot news,
but the Car Collective is great because it's sort of a halfway between a traditional automotive magazine and the very cool things you can do with substack. Everybody. Gary's voice
is his own, Larry Prince is another member, Ron Sessions, Mike Strong, and occasional guest contributors. What's really cool is
it gives us the flexibility to let people speak in their own style more than you typically have in the traditional automotive website or a magazine. And I'm pretty proud
of what we've put together.
Speaker 6: That's great.
Speaker 2: Well, everybody can go check that out right now. And
I want to thank you all for having tuned in.
Speaker 1: OT Online After Hours is brought to you by Alex Partners For more than forty years, we have helped companies and their stakeholders around the world harness opportunity, overcome challenges, and achieve outsized outcomes. ALEX Partners when it really matters,
and by ridge Stone Tires Solutions for your Journey.
About this episode
The hosts connect a headline about unused North American auto capacity to a bigger worry: seven new U.S. assembly plants may be overbuilt just as Chinese EV and connected-car policies reshape where volume goes. They debate how Canada’s EV import quota rules, tariff changes, and connected-vehicle restrictions could steer production toward Mexico or away from the U.S. The conversation also questions plant profitability, arguing tariffs alone won’t fix competitiveness—predictable industrial policy and supply-chain capacity matter.
TOPIC: U.S. Auto Industry PANEL: Warren Browne, RFQ Insights; Paul Eisenstein, Headlight.news; Gary Vasilash, shinymetalboxes.net; John McElroy, Autoline.tv
