Abu Dhabi Decider: Norris, Verstappen & Piastri in the Ultimate Title Fight

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Hi, guys.

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How are you guys?

I'm feeling quite fresh, actually, because I didn't go to Qatar.

Nate did.

I did work Qatar.

I worked it from home, and I could not believe what I was seeing unfold on my laptop as

I did work it.

But Nate was there.

So, I mean, Nate, I mean, your better place to just give us a quick recap on that and

how mad the whole thing was.

Yeah, it was pretty mad.

And I mean, we can fully unpack, I guess, we'll unpack some of the McLaren stuff in a little

bit.

What was striking to me, and before even the strategy call, I've never seen an athlete

look as obviously nervous as Lando Norris did on the grid on Sunday.

Every single person on the grid was mentioning it.

You know, he just looked, he had this kind of deer in headlights look, which was

quite remarkable, really, because he had two attempts to win the World Championship

as he stood there.

You know, if anything, I thought, oh, this is going to be a great opportunity

for him.

He can just go and try and win the race.

And if not, he can finish second, third, and just, you know, take the...

But it was so interesting to me that he looked like that.

And I thought, maybe that's just me reading into it.

But every single other person said, did you see Lando out there?

You know, he really looked, really looked, and then obviously, you know, the

McLaren mistake followed.

So, a lot of nervous energy in that McLaren team, which was interesting as well,

because they were all very relaxed about it until Sunday.

And it did seem like something changed, and I think the realization that they

could actually get it done.

And then just obviously the chaos of that pit stop.

It was so fascinating how quickly the mood changed down there.

So really interesting weekend to get involved in and be part of.

And I've got to tell you as well, I saw Red Bull as I was leaving.

They cannot, if you think we can't believe what we're seeing, they absolutely

cannot believe that Max has still got a chance here.

So I thought it was great to see that.

And yeah, I actually feel pretty good to answer your original question,

because I got to spend most of yesterday on the beach in Doha, which was nice.

Basically, we knew the Yuki Sonoda Red Bull news was coming.

So I did a bit of that work down there.

So I was still working with my laptop, took a book down there as well.

But a good way to recharge ahead of the week, because this end of the season

has been pretty bad, pretty chaotic.

So but yeah, it's going to be an amazing week.

I mean, I don't know about you, Lawrence.

This will be the third time I've covered a finale in Abu Dhabi.

I did 16.

I did 21.

I can't really remember what happened in 21, quite one.

And then obviously this one.

Nothing major.

Yeah, all pretty inconsequential.

But you must have done a couple of the Brazil ones as well.

I can add 2014 and 2012 to my season finale deciders.

I wasn't in Abu Dhabi for 2010, which was the last time we had more than two drivers

in contention for a title.

So bit of a first there for me.

But yeah, I mean, Brazil, I remember being such a wild weekend in 2012.

And the weather played a part.

And it within that race set being spun round early on and looking like

Fernando had it and they didn't have it.

That was among the most dramatic.

But 2021, I was actually thinking about earlier today,

it sat in this hotel room in Abu Dhabi and not a million miles away

from the hotel I was in for 2021.

And yeah, just this part of the weekend, you just knew something was coming.

You know, something had to happen.

Max Verstappen versus Neil Hamilton for the title.

Something crazy had to happen.

And of course it did.

And there's that same feeling going into this.

Do you have that same feeling now?

You do.

That's what I was going to say.

Do you have that same feeling now?

I mean, absolutely.

I do. I do as well.

Yeah, it's like Nate mentioned.

I mean, any of a race this year and we're getting straight into this.

By the way, sorry, Nicole, I've taken over your job of directing traffic here.

But but every weekend this year, if somebody had said, you know,

would you reckon Lando podium?

You'd be like, yeah, you know, he's got it in him.

Like, should be good.

He went through those dips there in the year.

Sure. You know, there were times he wasn't on the podium,

but you'd always go into a weekend thinking, yeah, Lando's got it possible.

But like Nate said, you know,

if he was looking nervous on the grid in Qatar,

imagine what he's going to be like in Abu Dhabi,

even if he's qualified in the top three, which I think, again,

more than capable of doing absolutely got it in him.

The McLaren should be quicker on Abu Dhabi.

But because it's this last race,

you just feel like something's going to happen.

And because what's happened to McLaren,

the last, you know, two rounds,

you just feel like there's the potential for it to all implode,

which from a journalist point of view is fascinating to watch.

I hope it's going to be entertaining for everyone watching.

But ultimately, I think whoever wins this title,

we've got a great story, haven't we, coming out of this.

I mean, whichever one does it,

it's going to be immense relief and celebration at the end.

And there will be plenty to write about as a result.

I think you have to go back and look at Lando's face

on the podium in Las Vegas, because

to everyone else in that moment, we were thinking,

oh, my God, he can win the championship in the sprint race in Qatar.

And if you really look at his face on the podium there, he knew.

He knew.

And you can start sort of like reading into it, reading into it then.

And I really felt too, watching from my couch,

it was like the the the realization that the moment was here.

Like this is something we've talked about this.

This is winning the World Championship

is something that these guys dream about from the time they're like, yay, big.

You know, they're they're in go-karts at the age of four or five.

And then there's all this stuff.

And even if you're from a family that makes a bajillion dollars a year,

there's still a large amount of money and effort and family

and sponsors in years and years and years of trying to get to this moment.

And this truly was the first time in Lando Norris's career

where he's had the chance to win the World Championship.

And it was like the pressure of the moment was

I don't I'm not going to say it was getting to him,

but it was sort of like the realization that it could happen.

Just all of that.

And almost like watching him, you could you could like feel it.

You could just you could almost feel it in your soul.

But the one thing I can't shake after watching all of that

actually has nothing to do with Lando and it has nothing to do with Max.

I honestly don't know how if I'm Oscar Piestri.

I don't know how I let go.

Of the disappointment of how he was.

He was having a weekend like like Lando was having in Mexico,

where he was just on another level.

He was in another like atmosphere.

He was doing his own thing.

He was absolutely the card to beat.

And it's like all the memes have come out this week

and they're like McLaren has decided they're so impartial.

They're actually just backing Max for staff and for the championship.

So to be able to like to to be to be Oscar,

who is the youngest in this championship fight,

who has still had all of the same things happen to him

for him, about him with him as Lando,

but to then have the opportunity almost snatched away,

not by your own doing.

To have it snatched away by something

that you probably doubted in the moment as well.

To be able to kind of come back from that to me.

I don't know how you do it.

That's what I can't shake.

Like how do you let go of that disappointment

and that crushing feeling?

Because if anyone's face was telling a story after that race,

it was his face.

Yeah, and there's been a lot of discussion about the hug as well

between Zach Brown and Oscar Piastri in the in the media pen.

Some people saying maybe performative.

I mean, I don't know about that,

but I always do wonder why people have to do those things in the TV pen.

You can also do it when they've stopped being interviewed.

You know, there are many places you can do that.

Yeah, but it was telling that Brown felt the need to do that in the TV pen.

I think it was slightly performative of I have to show a moment

to all these people online,

you know, these keyboard warriors that I do actually like this kid.

You know, I'm not just some callous team boss.

So I think when people say it's performative, I actually think like,

yeah, but to your point, Nicole, it's exactly that reason.

I think that's probably the most devastated.

We've seen Piastri always talked about the kind of the cool

and calculated character that he is earlier in the season.

That is close to kind of a, you know, a breakdown

that we've seen from him.

The one thing with that as well,

that I think will be going on in his head is not only was it kind of

a reviving race for him in terms of we hadn't seen that for months and months.

The when you actually consider the what he would have been coming into

this weekend feeling in terms of the points, had he won the race,

those extra seven points, it's a huge difference.

And that, you know, that you look through a season, you say,

this made the difference, this made the difference, that made the difference.

He is going to be absolutely kicking himself and, you know,

annoyed with that race forever, if it does cost him a championship.

Because, you know, I think we talked about these final two races

as being strong ones for Piastri, you know, historically, you know,

they much they suit him much better.

So I actually think he's coming this weekend with a good shot

of beating Norris on track at least, you know, back in that fight.

But yeah, that's going to that's going to be a haunting thing for him.

I spoke to Mark Webber in the evening on Sunday.

It was quite interesting.

He was sat outside in the McLaren motorhome and he'd been sat there

for about two hours and it just I think he must have drunk

whatever he was drinking at an endless refill ability

because it just his cup stayed half full but he was drinking it as he went.

Like it was just like, you know, I think it was soda water or something.

But he was he had this icy stare ahead of him.

One of the photographers, Kim Ilman, captured a great photo of him as well

that you can see where he's just got this, you know, this stare.

And yeah, they, you know, they were a little bit shell shocked.

I think Mark Webber has experienced that before.

I do wonder how much he's got Abu Dhabi 2010 and career 2010 in his head

when his own championship chances kind of slipped through his fingers.

But I think as well, there's that there's that and, you know,

we could probably get into this for hours, but they certainly feel on the

pedestrian side that piastries come off worse far too often, you know,

this season. I don't think there's been too much malicious in it,

but that's clearly in their heads.

And that alone is why piastries going into this race in a really interesting

headspace. I know we'll get onto it in a little bit,

but it may be complicates things down the line for McLaren.

If the finishing order, you know, is a certain way.

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Let's just get to the scenarios, the permutations, if you will.

There are a few of them.

Many of them are...

Many of them are sexy.

Many of them are what the, you know what.

So what's the easiest way for Lando to win this title?

Finish on the podium.

Straight up.

Anywhere on the podium.

Doesn't matter.

Doesn't matter what the other guys do.

And unlike I said earlier, he's got that in him, isn't he?

But of course, it's going to be as straightforward as that.

But that's the easiest way for Lando to win it, certainly.

And then, I mean, it is...

We were just talking about finales earlier.

Something always seems to happen to the favorite at these finales.

Either there's an issue at the beginning, there's a, you know...

I mean, 21 was a bit different because they all happened at the end.

But it really does feel tantalizing.

Like, it feels like a possibility.

They couldn't do it.

There's a bunch of teams as well.

Like Ferrari, desperate to finish the season on a high.

So I think you could see him getting stuck in the middle there,

in the midfield maybe, not in the midfield, but in the middle of the points order.

Okay, so if he finishes fourth, what did he...

If he finishes fourth, what can the others not do?

Like, give me the rundown for Lando.

So for Lando, it's pretty simple, like Lauren said, top three finishers and he wins it.

If he's fourth, Verstappen has to win the race for him to be champion.

If he's sixth, then I think Verstappen and Piastri have to win the race at that point.

I think it has to be a win for those two guys.

And then it gets all convoluted down the bottom because there's also things for

count back and stuff like that.

If he's eighth, according to our own article,

he wins the title if Verstappen finishes third or lower and Piastri doesn't win the race.

If he finishes ninth, he wins the title if Verstappen finishes fourth or lower

and Piastri doesn't win the race.

And if he finishes tenth, he wins the title if Verstappen finishes fourth or lower

and Piastri finishes third or lower.

So, I mean, those last few probably not massively relevant at the moment,

but like, they suddenly become very relevant very quickly.

I remember there was a slew of years where Lewis Hamilton seemed to wrap the

championship up by finishing fifth, you know, in obviously Brazil in 08 famously,

but then there was like, if we were in Austin together, won't be all of us

when he won it once by finishing fourth or fifth or something.

So, I mean, Max won it last year in Vegas by finishing fourth.

Yeah, exactly.

So, you know, it's happened before and actually it's kind of funny when that

happens because, I mean, I always remember Brazil 2008 for this and because

Massa had that amazing moment on the podium when he hit his chest and had the tears

in his eyes, but the podium finish, the podium ceremony still goes on

and the champions still in the paddock celebrating.

So, this is kind of weird thing of like, well, the championship's the story,

but the podium's still going on.

So, that's pretty interesting.

There's a difference though between finishing off the podium at a race

when you're clinching early than when you're going into the final race of

the season and you have to do something in order to win it.

OK, so the easiest way to back it up is Lando.

Anywhere on the podium he wins the championship.

Max is currently second in points.

What needs to happen for him to win the championship?

Just the easiest road.

So, Max, obviously, win the race is what he needs to do and then it's if

Norris is fourth or lower.

So, we're basically reversing a little bit of what Nate just said.

If the staff and finishes second, he needs Norris in eighth or lower

and Piastri not to win the race.

If the staff and his third, he needs Norris night for lower and Piastri again

not to win the race.

So, fairly straightforward, actually, for the staff and thing.

And I mean, while he can win it by finishing second or even finishing third,

realistically, he's just going to go out and win it.

But, you know, we've seen just how good Max is at executing those victories

when everything is on the line, when the pressure is high.

And the thing about Max is the thing about Red Bull,

so they didn't expect to be here, you know, midway through the season.

They didn't expect to be here.

This is kind of almost like a free shot at this.

It's a bonus they've got here.

McLaren have messed up along the way and open the door for them.

And Piastri is just, sorry, I'm just trying to slug.

Trying to slug, you know, see if I win here, win there, see where it ends up.

And now he's got to the final race and it could happen again.

And that's why I think it's very easy to look at this situation

despite Norris really holding all the cards and Norris being the strong favourite

going into it, giving his points of archery.

But it's very easy to convince yourself that Verstappen could still do this

because we just know how ruthless he is when there's something like this on the line.

And because we've seen how much McLaren can mess up.

What about Oscar?

And for Oscar, I mean, Oscar is even simpler.

He has to be top two to win the championship.

He can't be any lower than that.

And if he wins the race, then Norris has to be sixth or lower.

Irrelevant where Verstappen is.

If he wins the second, Norris has to be tenth or lower.

So, you know, we're already getting into pretty extreme territory.

And Verstappen has to be fourth or lower.

So if he's second, he needs those two to have an absolute shocker to have any chance of doing it.

And again, to that point that we were making earlier,

that's for him, he's looking at that and he's thinking,

if I had just, if that Qatar race had gone differently,

he's at least got maybe third place to play with as well there.

So that's gone away from two.

But yeah, absolutely fascinating.

To be honest with you, as much as we've talked about Piastri,

he's kind of the guy who can just throw caution into the wind here.

There's nothing for him really.

He kind of has nothing to lose.

Yeah. And I mean, you know, you're in the situation there

where you really are hoping for a miracle.

And the only thing you can do is just maximize your own performance.

And in a weird way, that's kind of nice.

He doesn't have to worry about if I do this, if he's like, you know,

Norris has to have an absolute shocker of a race for Piastri to have a chance.

Piastri can have a great race.

Norris could finish second behind him and Piastri can finish the season and say,

all right, well, I still finished strong.

Couldn't do anything about it and move on.

So not that obviously he'd want the points lead that he had, you know,

three months ago, but I think he's the guy you look at and you think,

okay, well, he's he's probably not under the pressure that certainly Norris is under.

And maybe I think Verstappen's not under.

I don't think Verstappen feels pressure like conventional human beings do,

but I think he's feeling the extent, the magnitude of the championship,

the fifth championship potentially now that maybe he wasn't doing a little while ago.

Yeah, I'm not sure.

I honestly think Verstappen is is so chill.

I can insist, but the one thing that really opens up for Piastri is if Norris DNF,

so if he gets taken out of the flap, if he has a car issue,

then Piastri can win the race to win the championship.

So then it really does open up like the reality of Norris finishing sixth.

If Piastri wins, does seem unlikely given how closely match those two are.

But remember, we had that failure on the car of the Dutch Grand Prix for Norris.

And again, weird things happen.

This is going to be like the tagline from this from this forecast, weird things

happen, but you know, whether it be just the way the cars being put together,

you know, the mechanics are all under pressure, McLaren guys do a great job in that.

But these things can happen.

Or of course, just that, you know, first lap instance, you get involved in

someone else's accident, or perhaps you're not aggressive enough.

You're not as aggressive as you'd usually be.

And by backing off, you ended up, you know, being caught out by something

and taken out by someone.

These things can happen in season finale.

So that's where I think Piastri can go into his weekend.

You know, still fully focused.

But for him, it's very straightforward.

Just get the car in pole position and then lead the race, win the race

and just hope that things happen behind you.

There are just a quick one on that on that scenario.

So in a call, but if I've just realized this, if Piast, if Norris did

crash out, you'd have an amazing situation where Norris and Piastri

could be in just a straight fight for the win and the championship in that

moment.

Am I right in saying that?

Because if Norris was out of the race, the two of them, it's

when it takes all, which again, you know, you're looking at the various

things that could happen here.

Imagine that, you know, those because those two guys, I think I'd

prefer seeing those two guys fight on track than Norris and Verstappen.

I think that's a pretty one sided thing in Verstappen's favor.

But Piastri Verstappen for the title would be unbelievable, especially

Piastri would suddenly be thinking, oh my God, I've got a chance

of doing this here.

And I think Verstappen, you know, I do agree.

When I said nerves, I didn't mean the nerves.

I think he suddenly realized this could happen, Verstappen.

But I don't think of all the people on the grid, I don't think

that affects him, you know, like it affects other people.

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There are a few situations involved where, like, McLaren could get involved.

McLaren could get involved.

And like, they could interfere with where the drivers are on the track.

They could have different strategies.

They could make different decisions.

There could be a bad pit stop where they ask

then a driver to give up a position and swap.

I will say this.

If I'm either one of them, the answer is F, no.

There is not a world that exists that if I am either one of those drivers

that I am doing anything to help the other guy.

And yes, I realize that I personally cannot succeed,

which is something we've talked about with both the other drivers

who have admitted it.

I can't succeed without my team's help.

I get that.

But at some point, you need to be selfish.

And that moment is now.

So if you're asking me to step aside because you made a mistake,

you also made a mistake last week

and you essentially, and the week before,

you made two mistakes that shot me in the foot,

that hurt me, that put me in a bad position.

You're now asking me to do you a favor?

No.

And I'm not doing him a favor.

It's just not happening.

I am not that nice and they won't be either.

Yeah, I think there's one scenario or kind of group of scenarios,

but to make it as easy as possible,

I'd say if Verstappen is leading, let's say George Russell is second,

Piastri is third, Norris is fourth,

and we're down to the final two laps.

In that circumstance, Verstappen is going to win the title

unless McLaren switch their drivers.

And in that circumstance,

it is almost impossible for Piastri to win the title

unless both Verstappen and Norris go wrong

within the final two laps, have failures or whatever.

Therefore, I could see a situation

and McLaren have been kind of clear about this to some extent

as clear as they can be.

They will talk about these kind of scenarios going into it

where if Piastri really can't win it,

will he just give the podium to Norris

so that Verstappen doesn't win it?

And in that situation, I can kind of see it happening

and it wouldn't be that unusual for F1

because if you think back to 2007,

Kimmy Reichenan won the title that year

when the two McLarens kind of were getting in the way

of each other and blew us out issues.

But in that race, Felipe Massa kind of compromises,

well, Ferrari compromises strategy basically

so that Reichenan would definitely get ahead of him

at the pit stops.

And Reichenan took the win and the championship there.

And you know, that was asking,

okay, Massa wasn't in the running for that title,

but nor would Piastri be if it's down to the final cup

of laps in that situation.

But Massa had to go for home victory and he did it

kind of in the knowledge that the following year,

you know, he would start again from scratch with Ferrari.

You know, there wouldn't be any bad blood as all of it

and Massa nearly went and won the title.

So it's tough, but I think that is a situation

where I could see it happening.

What I can't see happening

is if Piastri still has a shot at the title

and McLaren will also asking him to make way for Norris

or from the start of the weekend,

McLaren are saying to Piastri, look, we're back in Norris.

Those Piastri has every right to say no.

And I don't think McLaren are going to ask that.

They've been quite clear actually

that they're not going to have that going into the weekend.

Going into the weekend is open to both.

I just think if you get down to those final few laps

and it really is a case of switch to McLaren's

and one McLaren driver wins,

then you're probably going to do it, aren't you?

Just real quick, I mean, yeah,

that makes sense from a team perspective.

But if you're Lando,

the narrative around Lando is that

we know what the narrative is around Lando,

right? If you're Lando and you only win the championship

because your teammate swapped places with you in the end,

is that really what you want?

Well, the way that drivers and teams always phrase these things

and I think there is an element of truth to it

is that single events like that aren't why a championship's won.

A championship's won over 24 races

of being the most consistent driver,

the most consistently good driver in the best car.

So while I imagine that would be the narrative

that has spun a lot and understandably so

because when it comes down to it,

those final points that got him off over the line

will have come basically from his teammate helping him out.

I think, and the other thing is like I said,

you can point to so many examples in F1 history

where teammates have helped out other teammates

in desperate or in close situations.

Just look at Sergio Perez and Abu Dhabi.

He was praised in 2021

for trying to hold up Lewis Hamilton

at a crucial point in the race.

And if you go back to the 50s,

drivers would literally give up their car

so that their teammate could jump in

and drive it to the end of the race

if the teammate had an issue with their car.

So while I can see that narrative being pushed,

I think there are counter-arguments

that Norris would sit quite happily with

if he had a title and his belt as well.

The one thing, I agree with you on the teammate's point.

The one thing with those is that there's,

I don't know of anywhere

a driver's been in the running for championship

and then had a team order.

Because the massive situation,

it was his home race but his championship wasn't on the line.

If him to have ignored that team order

would have been probably career-ending

in terms of his Ferrari career.

Like not only did you ignore a team order,

you also cost your teammate win the championship.

But I think that McLaren have...

I mean, Zach Brown said,

I'm trying to think of exactly when he said it.

He would rather see Max win the championship

than interfere with his drivers, have one over the other.

I do think by the end of the race,

if that situation exists,

it is actually quite a fascinating kind of conundrum

for us to sit here in kind of armchair quarterback.

Would you rather swap your drivers at the end

and have Lando win the championship?

And to be honest with you, I think Lando and Oris would say,

well, my name's the one on the trophy.

To Lawrence's point,

it's one and lost over a long season.

I'd rather be a champion that everybody said,

well, you shouldn't have won it

than somebody who didn't win a championship.

And everyone says, oh, you didn't win it.

If you're the champion, it doesn't really matter.

Or are you happier to actually live by your words?

Because he said, you know, I'm happy to see Verstappen win.

If you are watching Piastri third and Norris fourth,

Zach Brown, is Zach Brown really sitting there going,

no, no, no, we're going to do this the right way.

We're going to let Max win it.

I just can't see it.

And on the Piastri point,

from everything I know about,

again, everyone talks about Mark Weber

and he's not going to let anything like that happen.

Piastri does genuinely love being at McLaren.

You know, I think that for all the stuff this season,

you know, he's very, very happy at that team.

Let's look at the scenario as he's running third,

Norris is fourth, and McLaren will have had

millions of these conversations going into the race.

They will have said to Oscar,

we're only going to ask you when we know

you cannot win the championship, you know, effectively.

Like Lauren said, it would take something special

up front to happen.

We're only going to ask you when it literally is

Lando or Max.

Oscar then has to sit and think,

okay, well, do I want to deny all those people

that have worked on my car all year a driver's championship?

I know it doesn't go to him,

but McLaren has not won one of those since 2008.

You know, to the eyes of most people,

that is what is the prestigious championship.

So he'd still be costing the team a driver's championship

if he refused in that situation.

And as much as we all sit here and say,

I wouldn't do it, I wouldn't do it,

I just don't see it from Piastri.

He's not the kind of guy that I see doing that.

I think that it might well be something

that he thinks about for a long time afterwards,

like with Bonza.

But I think when he gets into that car,

he'll know, look, I mean,

he might well be sat there thinking,

oh, I don't want my teammate to win the championship.

I'd rather the other guy win it.

You know, maybe that's how these guys are built.

But I can see why they would sit with Piastri and say,

look, if push comes to shove and we ask you, here is why.

I hope that's not how it's won.

No one wants to see the championship won

by one driver pulling over and letting the other guy through.

It'd be an incredible story for us to write about.

You know, to Lawrence's point earlier about us liking good stories,

I just hope that doesn't happen.

But I can totally see Piastri moving over.

Sorry, not moving over.

No, wait, sorry.

I can totally see Piastri moving over to let his teammate through.

In that exact situation, I said.

That is quite literally the only one where I think you can eat.

Yeah.

But I don't think McLaren is even,

I think McLaren are too smart to sit and ask Oscar to do it

any earlier than that.

You know, especially given the narrative around the season,

especially given the fact that, you know, do it,

you know, I just, I don't see how them asking him

when he's still in the running.

That then is, Piastri can turn around and say,

right, well, Pi rules doesn't exist now.

Next year, all bets are off.

I'm not playing these games anymore.

So they also have to tread that tightrope of next year

as much as the drivers do.

So I don't know, I think,

and also we're talking about hypotheticals here.

You know, it's very unlikely.

I know we all want it to happen to see what would happen,

but very unlikely.

And I do think that for the most part, McLaren,

Andrea Stella especially,

the one thing that you cannot say about McLaren

is that those two drivers do not immensely respect

Andrea Stella and the way that he's kind of able

to convey this team ethos that he's built.

Some of us might look at it and say,

well, I don't know nonsense.

So letting each other race have let Max in.

But I think, you know, you talk to people at McLaren,

they're so impressed with the way he conveys that stuff.

I do think the drivers will have a clear understanding

of what is expected of them

and what they should be doing by the end of the race.

And that's the key point.

And Andrea was very clear on this in Qatar

is that this conversation we're having now,

McLaren will be having down to the final detail

in the build up probably by now.

They'll have had it already on Wednesday night.

So they would have gone through all these scenarios

and Andrea said, the big thing that we're going to have

going into this final race over whether drivers help each other

or not is no surprises.

So if that radio call comes, one lap, two laps from the end,

whatever it is to make sense for, you know,

that exact situation to happen,

Piazzari won't be surprised by it

and he in theory should have already figured out

in his head what he's going to do.

Perhaps he'll go against it.

But he should have been very already figured out

and already been honest with the team about what he's going to do.

So I think that would be ultimately how that is resolved

and ultimately why I think Piazzari would move over

because I think in, you know, in the heat of that moment,

you can understand why I wouldn't.

I think if it's been kind of talked about enough beforehand

in the calm of a, you know, boardroom

or wherever they've been a hotel room, whatever,

you know, there I think the logic kind of comes through

and realistically long term for Piazzari, you know,

I think he is better off being in a team

that's happy with him that like Nate says,

you know, hasn't lost the driver's championship

because he's ignored an order.

I think he's better off long term with that.

But hey, that's why this is exciting

because we don't know exactly what's going to happen.

I do think the concept of no surprises is cute though

because nothing about the way that any of this has played

out since basically what?

Monza, Dan Ward, I don't even remember.

Nothing has been no surprises.

There's that's just a cute concept.

If you're looking at the three now, I can like,

I'm not asking you to bet your house on it or whatever,

but it's hard mathematically speaking

to not look at the situation and say,

I'm going to put my money behind Lando just

because statistically the scenarios, the way they play

out, it is more likely than not that he's the one

who will win the championship, but I need you

to back one driver, just one.

Who is it going to be?

So I mean, I'll go, I always go first for the podium

prediction, so I might as well go first for this.

I, I'm not backing Lando.

I think it's, I'm trying to work out which other two

I'd be happier backing, but I think Norris for me,

his chance to, to put a stamp on the championship

was last race and he let that, I know he's got,

you know, I know the permutation of his favor.

I just feel that those two other guys,

the way they can go about the race is so different.

I'm going to say Verstappen purely because he seems

to be in McLaren's heads.

He's just driving so well.

Also it's Max Verstappen.

I mean, I have contrary to what people think

when they hear this accent, I've always been quite

a big fan of Verstappen's talent.

You know, his temperament has been sourced

out a lot over the past few years.

I think what he's done this year has just been,

has been next to unbelievable.

I think he's cemented his legacy.

I think it's cemented whatever, whatever I thought

of him before it, this has been, this has been the season

in which I'm like, wow, he really is that guy.

Yeah, so I think that, and again,

this is where I think this will be important.

You've got a guy with four championships under his belt

versus two guys going into this race

with no championships under their belt.

And I think that combined with the talent,

combined with the fact that Verstappen is just,

just seems to be having the time of his life

being in this championship fight.

I think that will game over the edge somehow.

I don't know how it will happen, but I would back Max.

So statistically, it's got to be Norris Wright,

everything kind of points towards it.

But I agree with Nate and pretty much the same reasons.

And the other reason I'd feel particularly smug,

let's put it that way, if Max won,

is because I backed him at the very start of the season.

Yeah, you did.

The point, you know, several races in,

well, I was thinking, well, that looks a bit stupid now,

doesn't it?

It doesn't happen no matter what.

But I've actually been proved correct.

Like, yeah, kind of through luck rather than judgment.

But yeah, I think, you know, there's,

it would be an incredible story for a fifth title.

And it's just the way it feels

like the whole momentum is going.

You know, there was, if you'd asked me after Brazil,

yeah, Lando, definitely.

If you'd asked me after the cars across the line in Vegas,

before the McLaren's were disqualified, Lando, definitely.

But now, I reckon Max.

I think this, I think the same thing about like,

it's hard to shake sort of like the statistical odds

and the scenarios because they do favor Lando.

But my gut says it's one of the other two.

Like, and I, and you can't kind of shake that feeling either.

But then I look at it and it's like,

my gut also says, if you look at those three,

the drivers who have had the best seasons,

it's actually not Lando.

Like, he hasn't led the most laps this season.

He's been the one at times where

if he's not been the best car on the track,

he's fourth or fifth.

He's, and not that that hasn't happened with Oscar,

but I just feel like the better of the two has been Oscar.

And then there's Max, like you can,

we can do like the whole, you can drive a shoebox thing.

But there were literally times

during the first part of the season

where you're looking at some of the in-car footage

and your question is, is there anyone else on the planet

who can drive that?

Who can drive what that car is doing?

And he's making the most out of like nothing.

And then he was turning it into poles

or he was turning it into winds

and then just the momentum just went as it did.

So I kind of feel the same way.

Like if I had to back one driver,

as much as it doesn't make sense,

I think I'm going with Max.

I think we have to call him Chuck,

we have to call him Chuckie now, don't we?

That's the, that's the new edict from, from him.

But I mean, that Chuckie, that Chuckie joke that he made

kind of sums up where my mind is with Max at the moment.

Zach kind of makes this kind of slightly flippant comment

on a podcast that kind of hints at the fact that,

you know, Verstappen is there terrorizing his thoughts,

terrorizing the team's thoughts.

Says he's like a guy in a horror movie.

Verstappen hears it, laughs and then comes out

with one of the best one-liners of the season.

And now it's like, oh yeah, no, he is like Chuckie.

And everyone's been saying about Jaws and about,

you know, the dinosaurs in the mirror,

you know, all it, all it does is just,

it fuels this idea that he's just, he's coming to get you.

And I think it's great.

And yeah, I think, to be honest,

I think this is the great thing.

And I remember when we're walking in in 2021

to the paddock feeling this,

all three of them will have a fantastic story,

I think, if they win the championship.

But to me, to me actually, I mean,

they're all, they're all pretty good.

To me, the one that still seems the most far fetched

is Max winning it,

just in terms of where we were out a few months ago.

So I think that's why I'm, you know,

I'm kind of there, but I mean,

yeah, Piastri turning it around as well,

as much as it's going to be a few months

where Australians beat the Brits,

like quite comprehensively in cricket as well.

I think him beating Norris would be

just given everything of the last few months as well.

That'd be unbelievable.

He wasn't the one we expected when the season began.

Like the one who should be winning the title right now

is Lando.

He was the one that coming for the season.

We were expecting to be in this situation.

We weren't expecting.

I did back Piastri at the start of the season.

When Lando did, so when Lawrence said Lando, I said,

I think I said he'll be leading.

Yeah, sorry, sorry.

When he said Max, well, I said Piastri.

I don't know what we were drinking at the start of the year,

but we were like, it's not going to be Lando, right?

Because by the summer break, I was very smug.

So Lawrence is smug now.

I was very smug at the summer break

when Piastri was leading.

So there you go.

Norris has a chance to shut us both up.

I do think that Lando is the one

who's under the most pressure though at this point.

It depends, doesn't it?

I mean, for him,

I was thinking this about what I said about in Qatar.

Him actually having that moment of almost like paralyzing nerves

or fear or whatever,

that might have got it out of the system.

He might go to Abu Dhabi now and be like,

okay, like I've lived that moment.

I know what it's about.

You know, all three of us now, it's all or nothing.

Like I think it could be different.

So let's see, and also qualifying is going to be so key.

You know, I think if Norris puts it on pole,

if he gets into that first corner ahead,

it'd be so difficult to see the race going any other way.

You know, just given the way he's,

Lando is very good at controlling a race out in front.

You know, we saw it in Mexico, for example.

So we'll see what happens.

But I mean, the fact that out of the three of them,

he's maybe the more prone to crumbling under said pressure

also adds a nice kind of wrinkle to it as well.

All right, so speaking of the track,

let's just hit on that for a second.

Like what about this track leads to what kind of racing?

I mean, traditionally not great racing.

Way to sell it, Lawrence.

Way to sell it.

Well, but they made some changes to it in,

I think ahead of 21 and it has actually opened up

and the racing is better.

So what we shouldn't have is a 2010 situation,

which, yeah, just to go back a little bit or some way,

but our last time that we had multiple contenders

for the for the title of the final race,

both Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso got stuck in traffic

after pit in early.

Famously Alonso couldn't get past Vitaly Petrov

and basically that cost him the championship.

Abu Dhabi isn't like that anymore, you know,

but these cars and DRS and everything,

you can move through the field if you need to.

And I would say or not just I would say,

I think a lot of people would say in the paddock

that it's a track that will suit McLaren.

Don't think Red Bull are particularly,

they don't believe that strongly

that they're going to be competitive there.

But the thing is we've gone to various different races

and you know, the Red Bull has just been there

or thereabouts and then you add in Max Verstappen

and the car ends up very near the front of the grid

and then something happens in the race and it goes away.

You know, he shouldn't have won in Qatar.

You know, on pure pace, that was absolutely McLaren's track.

And it will probably be the same again here in Abu Dhabi

but we've seen that they can stuff it up

and that's what's going to make it exciting.

And then they mentioned Ferrari.

I mean, I think Ferrari, I mean, such a bad time

of the moment, I'd be surprised if they're up there

but the clerks always got the potential to qualify

pretty highly and of course Lewis will be looking

to end on a high.

And then I think Mercedes are the other team

we should keep an eye on.

It's not traditionally been a brilliant Mercedes track

under this regulation set

but I think it's one, you know, just given that their pace

in Qatar, they were there close enough.

I think you can probably say that they'll be in and around

should a podium be up to grabs.

And then of course that makes it interesting

for the title fight as well.

One of the things in Qatar was the mandatory

you can't take these tires past 25 laps.

So it was a mandatory two-stop race

which was something that was put into effect.

It was a rule you had to follow.

Is there anything like that this weekend?

No, that was very Qatar specific

due to the high speed corners there

and the load that go through the tires.

Not the case in Abu Dhabi.

So pit stop freedom is back up.

I think it's usually a one-stop.

I'd have to double check mine.

My stats were pretty, but I'm pretty sure

it's usually a one-stop and not really a race

where you're going to make huge strategic gambles.

But then you have things like safety cars.

I mean, that's why that 2010 situation came up.

That's how Petrov ended up there.

He pitted under a safety car on the first lap

and that actually put him ahead of Alonzo and Weber

once they had pitted relatively early

and then that screwed them both.

So, you know, it's F1.

It's the final race.

It's always a chance.

He's arrived.

Safety car in Abu Dhabi though.

I can't see it.

Can't see it happening.

No, no, I'm just joking.

That's a load of sarcasm.

Yeah.

Unless, you know, everyone's been joking,

haven't they, about, I don't know if you've seen the jokes.

Max Verstappen's out in front.

You know, Lando's down to fourth.

Piastri's eighth.

Lewis Hamilton just spins out.

Oh, sorry.

Sorry, Max.

I've just brought out the safety car.

How silly of me.

And there's been loads of those kind of things going

around or like, is that Nicholas Satifi's music,

you know, as he comes down the back street?

Sorry, that's what I was saying.

Sorry, I was making a joke.

That's what I thought.

With my jetlight, I went over my head.

But to be fair, the only place where you usually get saved

because when you do have an accident in that tight bed

under the hotel where cars don't usually crash,

but of course, Nicholas Satifi found a way to find the wall.

And yeah, that triggered mayhem.

So more of that, please.

Okay, let's get to our podium predictions in a second.

But first, obviously, there was some other news this week.

The Red Bull situation.

They announced their drivers for 2026.

Yuki is out.

So it's Linblad in the car at Racing Bulls with Liam Lawson.

Isaac Hajar gets the promotion to Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen.

I think my biggest question is, obviously,

there's like the curse of being Max's teammate.

It hasn't gone well for now a slew of drivers.

Although I will say that Czech Oprez is looking so much better

now than he was maybe at this point a season ago.

With the new set of rules come, the new regulations,

is Isaac in a better chance?

Does he in a better spot to sort of break the curse

than maybe the others were?

I think it's hard to gauge, isn't it?

Because I mean, every driver is going to be adapting

to these cars the same way, right?

So I know there'll be drivers who are way more experienced,

but I mean, there's no guarantee that every single

experienced driver is going to do great with the new regulations.

So I don't know really.

I think, yeah, it shows a lot of faith in Hajar,

doesn't it, to adapt to that.

I think it also suggests that, you know,

if they had to pick between Hajar,

it doesn't say much for Sonoda.

I've got to say that the fact that he had these extra years

of experience, they weren't like,

well, it's automatically going to be him.

I don't know.

I mean, maybe I'm missing a bigger picture here, Lawrence.

But I think that, you know, these guys nowadays,

you know, they're so quick at adapting.

They've got quite a lot of testing to get

on top of these cars as well.

It's not like Hajar is going to be the only driver

struggling with these cars or getting to grips them.

They're all going to be doing it.

It sounds like a lot of the drivers' early feedback

about these new cars hasn't been overwhelmingly positive.

So I don't know.

I don't think it'll be a big thing,

but maybe, maybe I'm, maybe I'm overlooking it.

I think it's the best time for Hajar to do it.

It sounds weird because they only have one year in F1

and it is a lot of pressure.

But going into a new regulation set,

you're not dealing with a situation

that Max's teammates have had recently,

which is a car that Max,

I don't think it's designed around.

Max has often said, but I don't mean that's the case.

I think it's more just, it's an incredibly fast car

with a very narrow set-up window

and hard to drive on the limit.

Max can do that.

He's figured that out over the years he's been there.

When you drop ex-overdriver in, be it Yuki Sonoda,

be it Liam Lawson, be it Sergio Perez,

Alex Albon, Pierre Gasly,

they've really struggled to get up to speed quickly.

The thing that Hajar has in his favor is that

because it's, you know, a different car,

it's going to, it's going to have similarities

to the red bull of today, sure.

It is going to be, you know, both of them learning

from the ground up.

I think that's the best opportunities to go in.

Ideally Hajar would have another couple of seasons

under his belt, but these opportunities, you know,

when you get promoted in Formula One,

it's very hard to turn it down.

You can't, you know, if Hajar turned around and said,

no, actually, I'd rather be in the racing bulls.

I think he'd be out the red bull program immediately

because that's not the attitude they want.

And might you say, because that's not what

a world champion attitude is it?

No, probably not.

There are a couple other things going into the weekend

that I think are interesting.

Red Bull is behind Mercedes by 23 points

in the constructor's championship.

So it is not out of the realm of possibility

that they win the driver's championship

and then elevate themselves in the constructors.

Kimi is just two points behind Lewis

in the driver's championship.

So in his rookie season, he could finish ahead

of the guy he replaced.

Ferrari is going to finish fourth

in the constructor's championship.

Williams wrapped up fifth last weekend.

And so now you've got Carlos Sainz

in the garage all next season next to his former team,

which is an interesting situation there

because how many times in the last couple of weeks

has he been asked something about you're still

the last Ferrari driver to get a win?

You have more podiums than blah, blah, blah.

So there's that.

Let's get to our podium predictions for the weekend.

For the record, Nate, you can't win.

Even if you hit the trifecta, you can't win.

But that's OK.

You could still come in second.

I'm somehow still ahead by two points.

Then it's Lawrence with, I have 18.

Lawrence has 16.

Nate, you have 11.

We got one point for getting every position right

if we hit the trifecta, we get six.

You got to bring up the rear.

Nate, who you got?

So I'm going to stick with my favorite narrative

or narrative to be of the season.

I'm going to say Lando wins the title in third.

I know I backed Max, but this is for actual points here.

Lando finishes third, so he wins the title

for Stappen in second, and Piastri wins the race.

The reason I say that is because that scenario

means that Monza, Piastri moving over for Lando,

is what costs him the title.

And I think that's the only time this season.

Yes, but it's the only time this season

that somebody has willingly given a title rival points.

And I think that that will sit with Oscar Piastri

for years and years if that is what happens.

So I'm going for that purely on,

I don't think vibes is the right word,

purely for the controversy, the narrative.

But also, I think that if you look at the form

going into this one from Qatar, I think Piastri,

this is a race I think Piastri would win.

So I'll stick with that.

I'm going to go Kimi Antonelli third.

Nice.

Max for Stappen second.

We need a drum roll.

Oscar Piastri wins.

Oh, wow.

I've left myself enough wiggle room to not decide

because Lando could be fourth, right?

So he could be fourth and win the title from there

because Max is only second.

Could be DNFed and therefore Max is championed.

So yeah, I'll leave that to you when I have some imagination.

Okay, so I'm not exactly you, but we're on the same page.

I don't have Antonelli in third.

I'm going with George Russell in third.

Then I have Max second and I have Oscar winning it.

And I also don't have Lando on the podium.

I see what you've done there because now unless I get Kimi

Antonelli on the podium, I don't think I can beat you.

This is why this order doesn't make sense.

The leader should always go first.

If you have them ran down, you have them ran down.

That's fair.

But I've been saying this for about eight races now.

The leader of this podium prediction should go first, I think.

This is the benefit of being the leader.

No, I don't agree because I go first, say my silly prediction

and then you guys go sensible.

I have earned my rightness throughout the season.

Fair.

I mean, you're playing the game.

I'm just on the same wavelength after, oh, yeah, this podcast.

And so far we're leading.

So, hey, I mean, I'm clutching a straw six.

I've done so very close.

It's very close.

The fact that we've gotten to this point and yeah, it's

great guys.

Enjoy the weekend.

I cannot wait to catch up next week.

I hope you have amazing stories to write.

I think you will.

But it's going to be great.

I'll be watching from my couch.

Guys, remember this has been on that.

You can catch us all season long on the ESPN app on YouTube

channel, like and subscribe or catch us anywhere else.

So just hit us up with a five star review.

We will see you once the season is officially over.

Bye.

Yeah, to bruise the streaming King with quantum fiber in a net.

He's got a binge.

He wants more.

He's got to have more of that time to write more podcasts in

the shower, quantum fiber.

Wifi has the power or more fast internet speeds got the

geeks to go big.

Bring them the game right now.

And his Royal week more sports.

Don't stop his quantum fires on top.

Switch today at quantum fiber dot com limited availability service

and speed and select locations only.

Abu Dhabi Decider: Norris, Verstappen & Piastri in the Ultimate Title Fight

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