0:00
/
0:00
AI Self-Driving Cars And The Empty Roaming Problem
AI Self-Driving Cars And The Empty Roaming Problem
0:00
0:00
0:00
0:00
About this episode
Exploring the challenges of empty roaming self-driving cars, this episode delves into the logistics of ride-sharing services and the significant issue of idle time. Dr. Lance Eliot discusses the implications of self-driving technology on empty vehicle time, highlighting that even with AI, cars can still roam without passengers. The conversation touches on traffic congestion, pollution, and the potential for increased demand for rides, raising questions about the future of mobility and the management of self-driving fleets. Insights into industry statistics and the economic impact of empty vehicles make this a thought-provoking discussion.
Topics:
empty roaming
ride-sharing logistics
self-driving technology
traffic congestion
pollution
mobility challenges
induced demand
Dr. Eliot explains the empty roaming problem of AI self-driving cars. See his Forbes column for further info: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/
Select text to request an explanation
Hi, I'm Dr. Lance Elliott and welcome to my podcast series about self-driving cars.
In this episode, I'll be discussing the topic of empty and roaming self-driving cars.
If you've become interested in learning more about self-driving cars, please see my website
www.ai-self-driving-cars.guru for further information.
Okay, let's get started. One of the most challenging aspects of any ride-sharing service involves
the empty roaming time. Ride-sharing drivers are continually underway in hopes of being in
the right place at the right time in order to be the car that is most likely chosen for a ride
request. Since the ride-sharing firms oftentimes aren't on the hook for the effort and costs associated
with cars that are doing the roaming, the firms don't especially care as much about the idle
time of those drivers. The primary focus is on making sure that there's a shortest waiting time
that can be achieved for the riders making requests, else those paying passengers might switch over to
a competing ride-sharing network. Sure, there is some concern about those drivers due to the
aspect that a driver that seems to endlessly roam will not be desirous of listing with the ride-sharing
network that ends up leaving them high and dry. In that sense it behooves both the drivers and
the ride-sharing operation to try and minimize the empty roaming time and seek to maximize
the passenger riding time. It's a gigantic logistics issue and one that attracts top-notch data
scientists and promises handsome rewards for algorithmically trying to find the best fit.
Let it be said that one of the thorny and problematic aspects that can stymie ride-going
services is the percentage of time that the passenger hauling car is empty of passengers.
Presumably no money is being made at those times. Worse too, there is cost involved such as the
cost of the fuel being consumed, the cost associated with the wear and tear of the vehicle, the cost
associated with the driver, and so on. You can pretty much assume that when there isn't a passenger
there isn't any income being derived by the ride-sharing effort. One quasi-exception, of course,
consists of instances in which the driver might be delivering something, perhaps a pizza or a
package, and as such there is presumably income covering that delivery action. For purposes
of simplicity let's assume that delivering something is equivalent to having a passenger.
Thus when I refer to an empty vehicle it means that the car doesn't have a passenger
and nor is it in the act of delivery. Another factor to keep in mind about a so-called empty vehicle
is that there is a human driver sitting in the driver's seat. Sometimes it's confusing to refer
to an empty car, since it could imply that nobody is in the vehicle at all. In the context of
ride-sharing an empty vehicle traditionally means that there is a driver and no one else in the
vehicle. Now can you guess what is the industry-wide average of empty vehicle time for ride-sharing?
According to industry-rewarded statistics the average time that a ride-sharing vehicle is empty
comes to about 41% of the time. Most people are surprised at the magnitude of that emptiness.
One aspect that gets the general public angry about the empty car phenomena
is that the vehicle is adding to traffic snarls. Cities also have qualms about the
potential pollution that those empty cars are producing. An often stated downside of roaming
empty cars is that presumably the risk of getting into a car crash or other incident is also being
increased. Here's an interesting point then to consider. Will the advent of self-driving cars
eliminate the emptiness factor? Or will it be the same or perhaps even worse than with today's
conventional cars? Let's unpack the matter and see. The first big difference is that when a
true self-driving car is considered empty, it really is empty. Due to the AI driving the car,
there isn't a human driver in the vehicle. Furthermore, the AI driving system can drive
whenever and wherever the owner of the self-driving car so indicates. There are no debates about
whether the driver wants to be out driving the vehicle or not. Many attempted to also say
that the cost of the driver is removed. Yes, certainly the hourly fee paid to a human driver
or a commission is no longer pertinent, but you need to impute the cost of the AI driving system
as a kind of surrogate for the cost of a human driver. All in all, there is still a form of
cost associated with that driving act. Now nobody knows what the cost of these AI driving systems
will be. Returning to our focus on the topic of emptiness, there's nothing magical about
self-driving cars that gets rid of the emptiness factor. You can readily have self-driving cars
roaming around in cruising streets, doing so without passengers, and the same manner that
human-driven, empty, ride-sharing cars do so. If that's the case, what do you predict the
emptiness percentage will be? It's tempting to say that it might be about the same as the today's
41%. Maybe or maybe not. Some worried that it might be higher, a lot higher. Here's why that
might happen. Everyone that owns a true self-driving car is going to want to ring every dollar of
ride-sharing revenue that they can out of that self-driving vehicle. Might as well put the
self-driving car into service nearly 24x7. Furthermore, punits keep saying that we can
get rid of parking lots in downtown areas since the advent of self-driving cars will
make parking lots no longer needed. At least, that's the conventional wisdom about the future.
Consider then again the emptiness factor. You'll have zillions of self-driving cars
roaming around the streets of downtown and for some percentage of the time,
though self-driving cars are empty. Ponder some of the adverse consequences already mentioned
about emptiness and recast them into a world that includes self-driving cars. For example,
traffic snarls caused by self-driving cars. And ironically, passengers seeking a ride might
have lengthier wait times, especially if the predicted induced demand materializes. Induced
demand means that people today that don't use a car might be induced to do so once we have
self-driving cars. I'm not trying to paint a doomsday picture concerning the role of
self-driving cars and their emptiness. My overall point is that some believe that the advent of
self-driving cars will be a boon for mobility and makes car rides readily accessible to all.
Though I'm hopeful and optimistic about such an outcome, we need to realize that the real world
is going to intrude on how things are actually going to play out. Empty cars, whether for human
drivers or self-driving cars, do not provide a free lunch. Trying to figure out how to best
manage that resource will be an issue for fleet owners and individual owners, along with being an
issue for cities and for people that simply want to get a ride. It's going to be a challenge and
hopefully one that we can all resolve. Well, thanks for listening. Again, I'm Dr. Lancelia. I hope
that you found today's episode informative. If you're interested in learning more about self-driving
cars, see my website, www.ai.self-driving-cars.guru, for further information.
Request an explanation for:
Request an Explanation
Heard something you'd like explained? We'll add it to this episode.
Sign in to request explanations for terms you heard.
Want to learn more?
Browse our glossary for plain-English explanations of automotive terms, jargon, and concepts.