BONUS: Power Play - The 'Next Big Thing' In EV Batteries

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Welcome back to the podcast. Welcome to a bonus show. It seems like we can't go a day without a news outlet

claiming the next EV battery will have magical technology with unbelievable range and almost

instant charging. I see it all the time. And it's hard to filter out the realistic innovations from all the noise.

So I set out over the weekend to update myself on the current state of emerging battery technologies.

And, well, it ended up as a nice little podcast script so that can be today's bonus show for you.

The global EV battery landscape this year is dominated by lithium-ion technology,

which has achieved unprecedented scale, cost reductions and manufacturing concentration

that will define the industry for the short to medium term.

As the foundation for the modern EV, these batteries have reached a critical inflection point

where mass market adoption accelerates and new technologies are beckoning all the time, though.

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So hopefully that's okay too.

But a nice bonus for our incredible people on Patreon that pay my wages.

So where are we today? Lithium-ion batteries maintain complete dominance in the EV market.

With global production capacity reaching around three and a half thousand gigawatt hours in 2024.

But that was up from 2000 only the year before.

This rapid scaling has allowed the average battery pack costs to plummet.

To around $115 per kilowatt hour, as of 2024 data,

representing a 20% decline in a single year.

And marking the steepest price reduction in seven years.

Goldman Sachs Research projects costs that will fall further.

To $80 per kilowatt hour by 2026, approaching the critical threshold for unsubsidized cost parity,

where EVs and gasoline vehicles cost exactly the same.

In China, with some batteries, they talk about in terms of $50 per kilowatt hour.

And so that's significantly lower than what you will notice I've just mentioned.

That is the latest industry consensus though.

The Chinese will talk about their batteries in very low cost terms.

And that's probably true.

But I have to go with those big research organizations that put out their annual reports.

Now, they also tend to base it on the cost at pack level, not cell level.

So not the cost to make an individual little itzy bitzy cell.

However, they look at the cost of the battery pack,

which will include all of the ancillary and associated components.

The housing inverters and everything else that you might need to make a battery pack work.

So that's why that low figure of $50 per kilowatt hour versus

maybe our Goldman Sachs Research say, which is 80 by next year.

There's probably a discrepancy there, but that can all be explained away.

The current battery technology has reduced in price by 97% since 1991.

And really all the big advantage of the big gains have come with us 15 years or so.

And it's one of the most remarkable industrial transformations since the industrial revolution.

At least in modern history as well, nothing has changed the way that we live and work

than the lithium-ion battery and how it's got so cheap.

This achievement stems from rights law effects, where each doubling of cumulative production capacity,

historically reduced costs by around 19%.

Today's lithium-ion batteries deliver energy densities of between 200 and 300 watt hours per

kilogram while maintaining cycle lives up to 3,000 cycles, making them suitable for both

premium performance applications and mass market vehicles.

So what are the dominant chemistries of today?

Where are we in 2025? Well, two battery chemistries currently defy in the EV market,

each serving distinct segments with complementary strengths.

Nickel-manganese cobalt and some variations of that NMC hold about 50-55% of the global

market share, maintaining its position as the premium choice for long range and high performance.

These batteries achieve energy densities of 250-300 watt hours per kilogram,

enabling vehicles with ranges of well over 400 miles and supporting rapid charging.

Lithium-ion phosphate LFP chemistry has experienced remarkable growth,

capturing 37-40% of the global market so far this year, up from 25% only three years ago.

However, it's around 80% of the Chinese new car EV market in recent months.

This reflects LFP's compelling advantages in lower cost-high safety and durability as well.

LFP systems typically cost 30% less than the NMC equivalents and deliver superior thermal

stability and cycle life up to 4,000 cycles. This chemistry lowers the energy density though to

maybe 160-171 watt hours per kilogram, but a lot of work has gone in over the last few years,

again, particularly in China, to lithium-ion phosphate technology and its improving all the time,

by the way. And so, with CELTA-PAC technologies, the acceptance of it in mass-market vehicles,

where the lower cost of the vehicle easily outweighs a quicker north to 60-time,

this technology is really catching on. Nickel cobalt aluminium NCA batteries occupy a smaller

bit of the market by 15% or so of the market, but it's very important. Mostly North America,

Tesla's influence as well with their premium applications requiring very high energy density.

NCA is around 260-300 watt hours per kilogram at higher costs, though, with more complex thermal

management needs. China is a huge part of the entire story today. China's control over the global

battery supply chain has reached extraordinary levels, with Chinese manufacturers making 85% of

lithium-ion cells and controlling over 90% of the mineral processing. The country's production

capacity surged 45% in 2023 alone, and the first half of this year output is now 300 gigawatt

hours, a 47% increase on the same time over the year. China can make far more batteries at the moment

than the world even needs, and that's driving down the cost again. Represents sufficient capacity

to supply anything that we need. It's why new entrants can come into the EV market,

and, surprisingly, unlike a few years ago, find themselves with the battery supply contract.

CATL and BYD form a duopoly controlling 67% of the global market. A combined 200 gigawatt hours

of production exceeding the total output of all other nations. CATL leads with advanced technologies

like their CTP-Celter Pack 3 technology, boosting energy density by 15%, if you can get rid of all

of the stuff around a battery pack, make the cells sit closer together, and pack them more densely

than you get more energy density out of the same space. BYD's blade batteries, quite famous

actually, because it's a good marketing term, but it features improved LFP chemistry. That's 70%

of Chinese EV installations. Six Chinese companies account for well over two thirds of the global market

share. There's some remarkable progress happening, but there are some challenges. Cobalt in some batteries

is dependent on some places where there's ethical and strategic concerns about where that comes

from, and so that has accelerated the development of reduced cobalt and cobalt-free chemistries.

Also, the lithium price volatility fluctuations up to, well, between $15,000 and $35,000 per

ton throughout the last year, 18 months, I saw complicates really difficult cost forecasting,

and it's intensified interest in alternative chemistries like, well, the ones we'll get on to

in a moment. I've picked my favorite five. Geopolitical tensions have prompted massive investments in

supply chain diversification as well, the EU, US and Australia, all investing towards domestic

battery, material processing, and manufacturing. The current state reveals an industry that is

maturing, but also pivotal. Remarkable cost reductions and remarkable improvements.

The combustion engine's been around 100 plus years, and that technology gets better and more

slowly. You and I talk about electric vehicles every day, and the speed of being able to

make that technology better is so much faster than combustion technology that all of the excitement

really is around electric vehicles. So what are the ones that are showing promise then?

Number one, solid state batteries. Solid state batteries represent one of the most significant

advances in battery technology. It replaces the liquid or gel electrolytes found in conventional

lithium ion batteries with solid electrolytes. They will typically be made of ceramics or glass

or solid polymers, a fundamental change that promises to address safety, energy density,

and longevity. The advantages of solid state batteries are compelling for EV applications. They

offer dramatically improved safety profiles because the solid electrolytes are non-flammable,

eliminating the risk of a thermal runaway event. That's what can cause a fire in a liquid

electrolyte battery. Energy density improvements are substantial. Manufacturers talk,

unfortunately in terms of range on a single charge, and you know how that frustrates me because

well, I could build a 700 mile EV today in my garage. Give me enough batteries, and I'll make

it happen. So when manufacturers like Samsung talk about 750 miles on a charge, that's kind of

pointless because we need to know, yeah, but what's the size of the battery? If you're doing 750

miles on an 80 kilowatt hour pack, well now you've got my interest. Charging speeds could be

revolutionary, with some designs promising full charges in under 10 minutes. But again, charge

times depend on battery size, and there's so many variables. But hey, you tell me the average

family car, the average, what's that 7080 kilowatt hours for a family car or SUV? It's going to

do 750 miles, it's going to recharge in 10 minutes. You know, you put it in terms like that,

now I'm super interested. The solid electrolyte acts as a separator between the anode and the cathode,

preventing dengerite formation that causes traditional battery degradation, and that would extend

battery life. These solid state batteries, well we don't know how long they're last, some saying

over 20 years. Despite their promise, solid state batteries face significant hurdles that explain

why they're still in development. The primary challenge is complexity and cost. Solid electrolytes

require specialized production processes and expensive materials, making them significantly

more expensive than lithium ion alternatives for today. Ionic connectivity at room temperature

is generally lower than with liquid electrolytes, that impacts charging rates and power output.

Interface stability between the solid electrolyte and the electrodes is problematic with poor

contact creating high resistance and performance degradation during charge-discharge cycles.

The brittleness of ceramic electrolytes could be a durability concern. Vibrations and mechanical

stress could cause cracks or failure. Manufacturing scalability is a barrier requiring defect-free thin

electrolyte layers and precise electrode contact, which means advanced facilities, dryroom

environments, and it's all been worked on, but it's not ready yet. But why they're promising for

EVs? Solid state batteries are highly likely to succeed in EVs because major automakers are

investing heavily in the technology, and they're clearly communicating timelines. Stellantis,

on their parts, say they plan to debut, a solid state vehicle, sometime in 2026, we think the

Dodge Charger could have this early technology. It directly addresses the most critical of EV

limitations as well. If you ask anybody and we talk about these surveys semi-regularly on the

main EV news daily podcast, you ask newcomers, different age groups, people who are going for their

first or EV. What holds you back? And people say range anxiety, which is not a thing, by the way,

I mean you get petrol anxiety, so I just prefer the word range. Charging time and safety concerns,

their ability to work with lithium metal anodes enables the high energy densities needed for long

ranges. Safety profile is fantastic. Manufacturing challenges are significant, but can be overcome,

companies like QuantumScape and Factorial Energy are doing really demonstrating progress by putting

those batteries into test cars now and getting them on the road and getting some miles under their

belt. Number two, silicon anode lithium ion batteries. Well, silicon anode technology represents

an evolutionary improvement in conventional lithium ion batteries, replacing the graphite anode

with silicon-based materials that can store significantly more lithium ions. This modification

promises to substantially increase energy density and maintain the proven chemistry and safety

profile of lithium ion batteries. The primary advantage of silicon anodes is exceptional energy

storage capacity silicon can theoretically store 10 times more lithium ions per unit of weight than

graphite, with practical implementations up to 40% in energy density over conventional batteries.

This translates directly to longer driving ranges, but with no more weight or size. Or make the

battery smaller and more lightweight for the same range. Silicon is abundant and inexpensive,

potentially reducing battery costs as the tech matures. Some manufacturers have achieved

energy densities of 351 hours per kilogram using composite anodes, showing that the technologies

commercially viable. Also, factories around the world have been built to make cells of one type.

It's crucial that if a new technology comes along, you haven't got to build new factories

or replace all the equipment inside your existing factories. So work can be done on the lines

you've already built. That's really important, by the way. The fundamental challenge, though,

with silicon anodes, is massive volume expansion. Silicon can swell up to 300% during lithium

absorption compared to 13% for graphite. And this expansion creates a cascade of problems,

including mechanical electrode fracture, particle disconnection from the current collectors,

and continuous breakdown of the solid electrolyte interface, which consumes lithium and degrades

capacity. The volume change is also caused particle like pulverization, where the silicon itself

breaks down into smaller pieces. And when that happens, you lose electrical contact. These issues

result in shorter life cycle compared to graphite anodes limiting the practical lifespan.

Silicon anodes are highly promising, though, for EVs, because of the performance improvements

whilst building on the current lithium ion technology, companies are incorporating a little bit

of silicon into their anodes at the moment, a clear path to gradually adding a bit more,

the energy density improvements, address range anxiety, and while maintaining the safety and

reliability characteristics that have made the current technology. So widely adopted.

Recent advances in composite materials with specialized binders, and what they call

nano-structured silicon designs, are managing the expansion problems with some manufacturers targeting

commercial deployment in 2030 in their EVs. Number three, oh hey, let's take a break. And I'll

be back in a moment and we will talk sodium ion batteries and a couple more as well. Stick around

back in a moment. The holidays are expensive. You're paying for gifts, travel, decorations, food,

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All right, welcome back. Now our third exciting technology on the horizon is sodium ion batteries

using sodium rather than lithium as the primary ion for energy storage, offering a potentially

more sustainable and cost effective alternative. While sodium ion chemistry has been around for decades,

by the way, it's only the recent advances in cathode materials and electrolyte formulations

that have brought the technology closer to being commercially viable to stick in the cars that you

and I drive. The most significant advantage of sodium ion batteries is cost effectiveness,

driven by sodium's exceptional abundance. It's the sixth most abundant element on earth

and widely available in oceans and salt deposits. This abundance could reduce battery costs

by 30% compared to lithium ion systems. Sodium ion batteries offer improved safety,

better thermal stability, no thermal runaway. They perform exceptionally well in cold temperatures,

maintaining stable electrochemical performance. Even when lithium ion batteries start to struggle,

very suitable for cold climates and environmental benefits, with reduced mining impacts.

Since sodium extraction has a smaller ecological footprint than lithium mining as well.

Also eliminating dependence on cobalt and nickel, a huge deal. The primary limitation of

sodium ion batteries is that they're not ready for prime time on energy density. Typically 100 to

150 watt hours per kilogram. This lower density means heavier bulkier batteries for the same range,

which limits the vehicle because of weight. Cycle life generally falls short as lithium

lithium ion performance with current sodium ion batteries experiencing faster capacity degradation

over charge discharge cycles and charging speeds don't currently match the best of the best out

there at the moment. So why they're good for EVs? Well, sodium ion batteries are promising for EVs

in urban utility vehicles. Delivery fleets. Two wheelers three wheelers even where maximum energy

density is less critical than cost effectiveness. If your primary concern is how cheap can we get

this vehicle? This might be the battery for you. Big manufacturer is opening gigafactories

ready for sodium ion production by the end of this year. It's already on the road in some cases.

The technology addresses critical supply chain vulnerabilities that lithium ion systems face for

the budget-conscious EV markets and fleet applications where total cost of ownership

is the bill and end all. Well, if you're less worried about your naught to 60 times, this could

be the one for you. Number four, lithium sulfur batteries. Lithium sulfur batteries use sulfur

as the cathode material rather than metal oxides found in existing batteries, offering exceptional

theoretical energy density potential, abundant low-cost materials and a big departure from

traditional battery designs. Lightweight. Very lightweight. Good for energy storage. Hey, good for

aerospace even. Good for long range EVs. The most compelling advantage of lithium sulfur is its

theoretical energy density. When it's not in the lab, we'll see. But in theory, not just a little

bit better, but as someone is fond of saying orders of magnitude better. Lithium sulfur, in theory,

would deliver 2,500 watt hours per kilogram. Now, are you bad at it? Two and a half kilowatt hours

in something that you can just pick up with a couple of fingers. Roughly 10 times higher than what's

out there at the moment. Practical implementations are achieving up to 500 watt hours per kilogram

at the moment. Well, that's still double. Some of the good chemistries out there. The high energy

density makes them really attractive for weight critical applications. Now, electric aircraft are in

the skies right now using the technology that's out there right now. But if there was a technology

that was 10 times better, those kind of applications where a premium price can be paid, aviation even

drones. People will pay a lot of money for getting more flight time. Then, and obviously long-range

EVs, the cost advantage is significant because, well, sulfur is abundant and inexpensive, available

as an industrial byproduct of oil and gas refining. That's not going anywhere anytime soon. It

independence on expensive metals like cobalt and nickel. Safety improvements include reduced

fire risk and it's less prone to thermal runaway as well. But why aren't we there yet with it? Well,

despite the theoretical advantages, lithium sulfur batteries face significant technical challenges.

The primary issue is an extremely short cycle life. At the moment, 500 to 1,000 cycles. So,

that might not be great in a few years time when your EV battery needs replacing. But what if you were

Neo or any of the companies that do battery swapping? What if the battery in your EV is not your

battery? But the companies can keep an eye on degradation. And at some point, when the batteries

are no longer good enough to go in an EV, they enter their second and third lives. This degradation,

at the moment, results from multiple factors. The sulfur compounds are dissolving into the

electrolyte and migrating between the electrodes. It causes capacity loss and anode corrosion,

dendrite formation on the lithium metal anodes is also a problem leading to short circuits. That's

a safety concern to cathode swelling can be 80% during operation. There's mechanical stress

there as well. So lots of work to do. But lithium sulfur batteries are considered really promising

for EVs because they address the weight penalty, the limits, EV range and performance. Why are they no

two seat sports cars weighing the same as you get with a, you know, a little, I don't know, 40

co-boost engine or something in a, in a little two-seater that don't kind of custom made tube

frame sports car. You know, you can think of the likes of your aerial atoms. Why aren't they

battery powered? Well, with lithium sulfur, well, they would be. They have exceptional

gravimetric energy density and would enable not only that lightweight sports cars, maybe motor

sport electric aircraft and things like that. Recent advances include nanostructured cathodes,

polysulfide, immobilization techniques and solid state electrodes showing promise in lab settings.

There are companies out there like solidion technology. They're demonstrating it on the road

right now. Well-suited where cycle life requirements are less stringent than performance demands like

as, hey, motor sport is one of those that pushes the boundaries of technology and you really

wouldn't want the battery to be lasting forever anyway. But you would want that big performance,

that big weight advantage of the lower weight. And finally, lithium air batteries. That is the

ultimate theoretical advancement in battery technology. That uses oxygen from the ambient air

as the cathode material in combination with a lithium metal anode. This design promises energy

densities approaching that of combustion fuel gasoline that has huge amounts of stored potential

energy inside it. That would revolutionize EV range. It would enable new applications that are

currently impossible with any battery technology. The theoretical energy density of a lithium air

battery is extraordinary. Research in the minutes has up to 1,300 watt hours per kilogram,

10 times that of some of the lower end right now. Recent breakthroughs have demonstrated

the systems working, achieving four electron reactions that significantly enhance energy

capacity while maintaining rechargeability. Unlike the other battery technologies, lithium air

systems can operate using oxygen from the environment. That eliminates the need for stored cathode

materials, dramatically reducing battery weight. This could enable EVs with ranges well over a

1,000 miles on a very small battery on a single charge. It makes electric aviation

entirely viable. Safety improvements include the use of solid electrolytes in newer designs. There's

no fire risk because there's no liquid electrolytes in the entire battery. And the tech has demonstrated

remarkable stability with test cells operating for a thousand charge and discharge cycles so far.

So why are we not further ahead? Well, lithium air batteries

probably face the most formidable technical challenges that explain why they remain primarily

in the lab. Air quality presents a major complication. There is moisture. There is carbon dioxide

in the air. And that reacts strongly with lithium metal, reducing cell performance and requiring

air purification systems. Those in themselves would add weight and complexity. The electrochemical

reactions produce solid lithium peroxide. Yeah, that precipitates on the cathode in large quantities

which can cause sudden cell death. That doesn't sound good when you're mid-flight. Lithium metal

anodes are prone to dengerite formation that can create a short circuit. Again, I'm not liking this

so far. Manufacturing complexity is extreme, requiring specialized materials, air filtration

systems and precise environmental controls that make scaling at least in personal vehicles

quite challenging. More significantly, practical energy density remains far below theoretical

limits due to the weight of supporting systems, air purification and the protective components

needed. But it's worth looking at. Lithium air batteries are considered the ultimate long-term

solution for mobility. They theoretically eliminate so much of the range concerns because they enable

new vehicle categories. Major research institutions like the US Department of Energy's

Argonne National Laboratory are one of the big investors, indicating potential breakthroughs

recently in solid electrolyte design for electron chemistries. Have overcome fundamental barriers,

demonstrating that the tech is theoretically viable. Well, that's our little look at what's the real

deal and what's not. What can we believe and we read about the next great battery technology?

With a fast pace of emerging battery technologies, it's going to bring huge improvements to EVs

in the next decade, addressing every major barrier that currently limits mass adoption. By 2030,

the pathway forward will reveal a transformed landscape where longer ranges, lower costs,

better safety and ultra-fast charging become the norm. Solid state and lithium-sulfur batteries

will extend the range, eliminating the concerns over the charging network because you can,

well, take your energy with you as it were. Silicon anodes alone will boost the current

lithium ion ranges by up to 40%. And that's the current technology. I mean, a lot of this is

on the road already, either in test vehicles or in small amounts. Battery prices will plummet

and we see that even with current technology, that's going to increase the competitiveness of EVs

and then things like sodium ion technology reducing battery costs by another 30%. So it just becomes

the no-brainer. EVs are better in every way and will be significantly cheaper than the combustion

car. At that point, you've just really, really got to love your diesel. Solid state chemistries

are probably the one that's talked about the most. There's no fire risk. It's the one that's

closest to commercialization for some people, some car companies getting really close to it. There's

a lot, there's semi-solid state on the road right now. Proper solid state with its 10-minute charging

with its huge range lightweight batteries, very safe, is probably the one where we're going to see

a lot of action in the next couple of years. Especially when there's commercial trucking and commercial

vehicles out there, they're going to have one, two, three, megawatt charging. If you look at the MCS

standard, what's that 3.75 megawatts? I'll check them out to one. That's got a theoretical huge

amount of power delivery. Solid state batteries would be able to cope with that, and if at the end

that it's a working vehicle and you can justify the cost, that's often where the technology will

start and trickle down to the rest of us. Industry projections indicate EVs will be 30% of global

new car sales, very quickly, 90% by 2035, and that transformation represents more than just an

incremental improvement. The way that we move around the planet will be done with batteries.

The way we're doing it right now with incredibly these using current technology is deeply impressive,

but what's around the corner is going to change everything. And that's your podcast for all

today. Thanks for listening. Hope you enjoyed it. I'll catch you on the next one.

Okay, it's kind of embarrassing how bad I am at budgeting. Let me see your charges.

Fine. You spent over $600 on takeout last month. I can't cook. You know this.

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of your expenses in one place and even track your subscriptions. And if there's a subscription you

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a budget that works for your income. Anytime you get close to your spending limits, it alerts you.

So you know exactly where your money is going at all times. All right, I'm in. What do I have to do?

Go to rocketmoney.com slash cancel or download the app from the Apple or Google Play source.

This isn't just the game. It's a once in a generation event. The Harlem Globetrotters 100 year

tour. Celebrate 100 years of high flying dunks, 100 years of showstopping moves and 100 years of

changing the game. Bring the whole family and be part of the legacy. This game is once in a

century. Be there at Motocenter on January 24th. Go to Harlem Globetrotters.com for your tickets to

the 100 year tour. Hey, it's Mike Chase here with Brad Preble from Car Subaru in Viratin. It's

time for the 2025 Subaru share the love event. I started thinking about all the stuff we've done

this year. We did the Subaru loves to learn. We watched the cars for the Beaver Acres Elementary staff.

Thank you so much. We so appreciate all the love from Subaru. We're so excited you guys are here.

In the go pet rescue, we had a puppy fest, a puppy marathon so people could come and meet these

puppies and adopt their puppies and give them forever homes. So we brought these lovely puppies to

Car Subaru to meet potential adopters. It's all coming to a nice landing here at the end of the

year with the 2025 Subaru share the love event. The love is being shared with the Sunshine Division

and Providence Child Center. Subaru is giving 250 car Subaru throwing in another hundred bucks. So

with each lease or purchase, it's a $350 donation to both of those charities right here where we live.

And there's even some national charities that you can add your choice. The perfect time to get a

car. The 2025 Subaru share the love event at Car Subaru in Beaverton with you all the way every

mile every day. I'm here with SpinQuest where you can play and win from the comfort of your own home

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