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Our 2025 Brazil GP predictions
Our 2025 Brazil GP predictions
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About this episode
Matt and Tommy dive into their bold predictions for the 2025 Brazilian Grand Prix, discussing potential weather impacts, sprint race dynamics, and key driver performances. They debate Lewis Hamilton's chances for a surprise podium, Max Verstappen's risk-taking under pressure, and Lando Norris's recent strong form. The hosts also share family predictions and reflect on the thrilling unpredictability of Brazil's race weekend. With a mix of optimism and cautious skepticism, they explore how this race could shake up the championship standings and highlight the excitement of sprint weekends before the format's removal next year.
Topics:
2025 brazilian grand prix
race predictions
weather impact
sprint race
lewis hamilton
max verstappen
lando norris
projected podiums
championship implications
family predictions
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Dodge Charger
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Hello everybody and welcome back
to the P1 Bogars with Matt and Tommy.
Predictions for the Brazilian Grand Prix,
otherwise known as the Lottery.
More so than most other weeks, to be honest with you,
where we just try and make it up on the spot.
But this one, Brazil, how can you not be excited for it, Tommy?
We are pre-recording this because we're going to be out in North America
doing our lovely P1 Live Delusion tour, which to be fair,
it is your literal last chance now because when this goes out,
we may have already done a show or two.
So it's tix.to forward slash P1 Live.
Get some tickets if the show hasn't already happened.
But we're going to be there, which means we are predicting a little bit earlier in the week.
Well, to be fair, it's literally the week before.
It's nine days away, in fact, to be completely precise
from the Brazilian Grand Prix main race.
Is it enough to know the weather? That's the real...
I've already looked at it, man.
I've already looked at it.
Yeah, I've already looked at it.
It's looking weird.
It's looking really, really moist.
Why did I say that?
Why did I say moist?
I've ruined the whole podcast episode.
It is looking like it may well be wet, Tommy,
which...
Hubba, hubba.
Don't you be changing your predictions now?
I should have told you at the end of the episode.
But it's not an absolute guarantee.
You know, we are many days away from the actual race starting
and it's not like 100% guaranteed.
I think it was like 50% on the Friday, 60% Saturday
and then maybe a slight lower chance for Sunday as of recording.
So, how are you feeling, Tommy?
I've spoken a lot in this intro.
I'm hyped.
I love this race.
It's a sprint weekend as well, of course.
They got rid of it last next year,
which is shameful, has to be said.
Always should be a sprint.
And yeah, lots of hype going into it
because it always seems to deliver.
And every time we go,
maybe this year it won't deliver.
It tends to still deliver.
So, Brazil is like an anti-jinks.
So, let's see if maybe this year is a stinker.
Fingers crossed, not.
Hopefully it's the absolute bang a weekend of the season.
It is currently 48, 48 in the predictions championship.
It is going down to the wire.
I can't believe it.
It's closer than the real-life drivers championship
by one point, which I mean, again, we will take that, won't we?
Yeah, definitely.
It is your turn to go first.
Good luck.
Oh, indeed.
So, good surprise I have gone for.
Brazilian, national, Lewis Hamilton.
Oh, for God's sake!
No, we haven't predicted the same again.
Look at that last week.
That was wild.
Well, I was saying, I mean, my reaction would...
Okay, so, yeah.
Good surprise gone for Lewis Hamilton.
I think, look, he's got to get that podium at some point.
You sound like me for Ferrari and winning it every year.
Yeah, but genuinely, the last race, you know,
qualified well, looked, obviously, you know,
we're not going to talk again about the incident that happened,
but it was looking good for him until it went wrong.
So, he's shown improvement, and I do feel like it's going to happen
in a place for it to happen if it did.
So, Hamilton does normally, you know, bring us a game
for his own fans.
So, I'm going for Lewis Hamilton.
All right.
This is how we're playing it, is it?
Okay.
So, to clarify, if my expression and reaction wasn't enough,
I also was going to go for Lewis Hamilton.
Good surprise.
So, why don't I whip out ye old faithful George Russell
as my good surprise?
To be honest, I had actually put George initially when I was
thinking of my predictions, and I went,
surely Hamilton is the easiest good surprise lock-in here
if he has a good weekend.
Sadly, Tommy has taken that away from me.
So, George Russell, it is, because look,
George is one round here before.
Merca, sometimes incredibly good this season,
and I feel like I don't predict them anywhere near enough
in my predictions because I always think of Red Bull
and McLaren and sometimes the occasional Ferrari Hopium.
So, I'm not even upset about putting George Russell
as my good surprise, so that is locked in.
We now head to a big flop.
I reckon we might be two from two here of things we've gone for
if we're thinking of loopholes right now.
I have gone for Ollie Bearman as my big flop
because not only, of course, he nearly got a podium.
No, no, it's classic, but there's more to it.
All right.
There's more layers.
This is like a lasagna.
Not that I know how to make a lasagna,
but I know there's layers.
Ollie Bearman had probably the worst weekend
of his racing career last time out in Brazil
where he was just hardly ever facing in the right direction
and really struggled.
And if it is a wet weekend again,
I'm not saying he's going to have the same weekend,
but anything lower than fifth, and that's a point.
But I just see that Hass won't be as strong
and that's why I've gone for Ollie Bearman.
In fact, that's why I went for a last time out
and it did not pay off.
So I've gone back to back, Ollie Bearman flops.
You have, yeah.
But this is what happens if Ollie's going to drop a P4,
I'm going to have to double down here.
So that's what I've gone for.
So big flop I have gone for.
Now, you've got a smirk on your face.
No, it's not a happy one.
It's Max Verstappen.
Max Verstappen, the pessimistic Tommy is out in full force.
But there is logic behind it
and that logic is going to rain at Brazil
and last year it was terrible.
No, my logic here is Max Verstappen,
we're getting to that part of the season.
We already saw it somewhat in Mexico
where he has to throw everything on the line and more,
take maximum risk in every single situation.
We already saw that in Mexico.
It's going to ramp up even more in Brazil
that he can't afford to play it safe.
Every dive bomb that's possible is going for it.
Every, you know, bending of the rules,
every corner cut, everything possible.
And I feel like, you know,
if in a sprint weekend,
if he goes absolutely ham,
it could be, you know, potentially game over.
So I hope I'm wrong.
Of course I do.
But I'm going for Max.
Absolutely fascinating.
Could not more strongly disagree with every pessimistic
thought you've had about Max Verstappen there.
I will say, before we go into sprint poll, et cetera, et cetera,
I firmly believe, you know, Tommy,
you've said it many times in the podcast
in the last few weekends of,
well, you know, let's just see what happens in...
Well, let's just see what happens in qualif...
Brazil is categorically yes or no
of Max Verstappen in this type of thing.
Yeah, yeah, I agree.
100% because there is...
It's a sprint weekend.
We saw how many points
you took out of Oscar Piatri and Austin.
If he does the same here this weekend,
my goodness gracious me, it's championship on.
But alternatively, if he has a fourth and a sixth
in the two competitive sessions,
competitive races...
It's over, yeah.
It's over, it's done.
So this is what will make Brazil
even more interesting than it already is.
And I, yeah, I firmly believe
in the absolute opposite direction
as we're about to find out.
Sprint poll, Tom Bellingham, please.
Sprint poll, I'm going for...
Charles Leclerc.
Sorry, may we just revert to the start
of the podcast where I said,
Friday has the highest likelihood of rain
and you went,
Ferrari are pretty good at that.
Yeah, it'll be dry, it'll be dry.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I go for Charles Leclerc.
Straight out of the blocks, why not?
I feel like he'll have a strong weekend
and you can tell that I'm spreading the eggs
because I went for low-time and good surprise.
You really are.
I'm not spreading them too far
because if Ferrari are rubbish
then you've basically put two predictions
directly in the bin.
Well, I have gone for Max Verstappen
as my sprint poll.
Genuinely on paper,
as we look at it right now,
could there be a more dreamy setup
for a Max Verstappen domination?
I went to Brazil where he did the greatest
drive of all time last year.
So it's Brazil, of course, this weekend.
It's looking like, fingers crossed,
it'll be wet.
And it's a sprint weekend
that Max is full well-known to be phenomenal at.
Strung out the blocks, yeah.
He's won 12 sprints or something?
13 now and the most anyone's ever won
is two apart from one.
Exactly.
So the records are suggesting one way
and I am seeing the headlines already now
that people may think the Tom Bellion
was throwing the predictions championship
backing Ferrari at this stage of the season.
But I will take it.
Gallagher comes down the inside
and takes the lead.
That's what I'm saying.
I'll take it for a Max domination
winning a championship.
You really would.
So yeah, my sprint poll is Max Verstappen.
We now head to the sprint winner
and my sprint winner.
Don't you dare.
It's my go.
Yeah, nice try.
Nice try.
Try a little move down the inside there.
Late breaking.
I've closed the gap.
My sprint winner is Max Verstappen.
Yes.
Max Verstappen is getting the sprint poll.
Sprint win.
Tommy is win-milling on the livestream
and it's going to be just absolutely phenomenal.
The win-milling or the championship.
Both.
OK.
Sprint winner I have gone for
Lando Norris.
I think he's going to continue his good form.
He was so dominant last time out.
I'm fascinated to see how Lando will do.
You mentioned it like it can go one of either way.
He withstands the pressure, continues his form.
We all saw what happened last year.
There's obviously this whole talk of
has he been really good and improved
because the pressure is off him leading the title.
He's leading the title now.
I'm potentially going to go into a wet Brazilian Grand Prix
after what happened last year.
We're about to see it is such a fascinating setup.
But I personally saw a new driver in Lando Norris.
I think it was a championship worthy drive that he did
and I think he'll continue his good form.
Absolutely fair opinion indeed, Tom Bellingham.
We now go to poll position for the main Grand Prix.
Poll position I've gone for.
Lando Norris.
I actually predicted it without knowing the weather
but of course Lando is a very solid driver as well.
So yeah, I'll go for Lando to continue his good form.
Obviously got him winning the sprint
and then go straight into qualifying
a mere few hours later and does it again.
Okay, Lando Norris is locked in for Tommy.
I can confirm I was not going to go for LN
for the pole position because I'm going for...
It's Max Verstappen once again.
It's a Max Verstappen clean sweep
in terms of sprint pole sprint win and pole position.
I'm here for it.
I'm living it.
I'm dreaming it.
I want it.
I want everything to do with Max Verstappen
being a part of this three way fight.
And am I really that delusional?
Yes, he was absolutely nowhere in Mexico
in comparison to Lando.
But Brazil is a whole different kettle of fish.
I will say, right, in these predict...
If it is a bone dry Brazilian Grand Prix weekend
I'm scoring zero points because Lando has won everything.
However, weather don't let me down.
That's all I'll say to make this championship interesting.
I've never wanted to lose this prediction championship
in literally one single weekend of just being over.
But I'll take it for the championship.
Yes, you certainly will.
For sure.
Imagine you're like,
Max is 16 points behind the championship lead now
but I've lost five points in the championship.
Oh, no.
In the main championship of predictions.
We'll just have to wait till Kata.
That's what I'll be saying.
Oh, no.
Actually, I kind of hope Max actually is out of the title fight
just so I can stop hearing you say,
we need to wait until Abu Dhabi Free Practice 3
to really understand.
Yes.
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Right, okay.
We now head to the main race results
in third position.
I am locking in Lewis Hamilton.
And this is not something I'm doing
because I thought you were going to put it as well.
But you only had that in my predictions
before you even said about Good Surprise.
Because I said I was going to put Good Surprise Lewis Hamilton
as Tommy ferociously now changes his P3.
George Russell is being filled in as we speak.
Literally in red.
But for me, it is Lewis Hamilton.
He's going to get his first podium
and it's going to be at Brazil.
What a moment for...
First podium ever. First podium for Ferrari.
Tommy, over to you.
I'm going to go for...
George Russell.
Oh, it's so annoying because I even thought
about the meme and was like,
oh, you know, I always go for a backup of George Russell.
But it is P3, so I was kind of like...
P3, yeah?
I couldn't see it happening. P3, yeah.
So, yeah, going for George again.
OK. And that's an absolutely fair prediction as well.
I could easily feel him as a backup.
It's not even for the banter.
It's George Russell.
He's a very solid driver around there.
OK, we head to second position, Tommy.
Second position I've gone for.
Charles Leclerc.
Is it a double Ferrari podium?
That's a wet Brazil, potentially.
Yeah, that's what I had gone for.
Obviously, I've now changed Lewis Hamilton out.
Of course, yeah, that's what I'm thinking.
Yeah, so I've gone for good surprise for Lewis Hamilton
and then predicted his teammates to finish second
and get sprint pole.
I love how you like Hamilton P3,
but I can't upgrade it to P2.
There's no chance about that.
Yeah, no, I was thinking about it,
but I'll stick with it because I'll kick myself
if it comes in and change.
So, yeah, I'll give Charles Leclerc.
OK, Charles Leclerc P2.
My second position is Lando Norris.
OK.
Finally, a brain cell is speaking in my brain
just purely from the fact
that Lando won Mexico by a country mile
and if, as I said,
if we have dry, sensible conditions
or a sensible race,
I firmly believe that Lando will win
by a big old margin,
but Brazil is never simple.
So, I've gone for second anyway
because I'm not expecting a massive Lando fall-off.
I'm also not expecting Oscar Piastri
to be on Lando's pace.
I feel like this is going to be
Struggletown now for Oscar from now
to the end of the season
from what we've seen over the last few Grand Prix.
I hope not as well for his sake
because it will be difficult for him to bounce back in 26
knowing that he led the championship for so long,
but you have to go from what you've seen
in the last few weekends
and it's been an advantage Lando.
So, P2 for Lando Norris.
In first position
for the Brazilian Grand Prix,
I am locking in
Max Verstappen.
It's a complete and utter whitewash.
It's MV All Day, baby.
Please.
It's funny because I would have been slandered
doing this as my predictions in 2023.
In 2025, I am heralded
for putting Max Verstappen
in all of these positions
because it is seen as a left-field approach these days,
which is crazy.
I've gone all in
and most of my eggs are in Max's basket.
So, there you go.
He has to win, doesn't he? Let's be honest.
It will be the greatest weekend for Formula One.
If firstly, I take the lead of the predictions championship
and secondly, Max gets within about 15 points
of the lead of the world title as well.
What do you...
Obviously, we all know my answer will be...
We have to wait to Qatar.
But what do you think the points,
like seven, probably not enough
of a gain, say like Lando's second.
Yeah, it kind of almost needs to be like...
He needs to be within a win with those three rounds,
to go, I'd say.
We need to be getting into the 25s.
Especially with Qatar, where...
Qatar, McLaren...
That is on paper, McLaren.
Vegas is a race where McLaren could really
struggle like they have in the past.
Is that a buggy track?
Vegas, I think, is beat George Russell again
for Max.
Yeah, yeah, it could be.
And then, yeah, we go into...
Qatar and Abu Dhabi I do think
should in theory be McLaren territory,
but we thought that a lot this season
and then Max just went on this crazy winning streak,
so who knows.
So there you go.
Who is, which is, where is...
Who's your P1?
It is Lando Norris.
I have gone for the
dry weather prediction of Lando.
But even if it does rain,
he's been really good in the wet
throughout his career.
And I just think that confidence
boost that he's had
going from Mexico.
Interestingly, both of us have not
put Oscar Piastri anywhere near our predictions.
And as you said, and as I'll say again,
I hope I'm wrong because we need Oscar
in this title fight to make it
as interesting as possible as well.
And it'd be such a shame for him
to just fall off at this final stage
when he had been leading so long.
So I do hope he is in it,
but I am like you very worried
about his form.
Fingers crossed it changes,
but I just can't see past Lando
this weekend based on what we saw
in...
in Mexico.
And yes, my very pessimistic prediction
continued.
Not even put Max.
No.
Other than flop.
You've basically got Lando leading
by at least sort of 16 or more points
come the end of this weekend.
Yeah, for Oscar, another reason
why I've not put him in my top three
is purely from the fact that if he is
struggling in qualifying compared to Lando,
say two, three tenths,
that is enormous around a track
like Brazil where I foresee
a very close qualifying unless we get a rainy one
and it's a has on pole again.
If it's a dry one,
you could easily see Oscar
towards the bottom of the top 10
if he is losing those two, three tenths
that when the margins are so tight
in Brazil, so that's another reason
to throw into the mix.
As we now head into no reasoning
whatsoever, our one crazy prediction
is for you, Tommy.
It is.
It is.
And you'll be surprised to hear
that it is.
All McLaren pit stops for under three seconds.
I am...
I mean, look, if you want to keep...
I am throwing away points the rest of the season.
It is mad.
It genuinely is mad.
By the way, can we just...
Sorry, before you...
This is a sprint weekend as well.
You know, there could be changeable conditions.
Like...
No, for the race, for the Grand Prix.
Okay.
I should have...
I shouldn't have clarified that.
I'm glad you did because, yeah, that's the...
That's bold.
Well, no, they didn't pit in a sprint.
They do they, I guess.
I was saying if it's changeable conditions, they might.
Yeah, true.
Oh, God, the jeopardy of changeable conditions
is even more extreme, isn't it?
But no, I'm going for it again.
I can't actually genuinely believe
that this keeps happening.
It is quite insane and the fact that...
You know, McLaren, it's weirdly like...
Other than Lando in Monza,
we get to have a moment where it's like really been like,
oh my God, because obviously
that made them switch positions.
But what's so weird is it's only ever like one of the cars.
You know, last time out, they failed this again,
but then won the fastest pit stop award.
Yeah.
When they get it right, this literally like 2.1, 2.0,
like bangers,
and when they get it wrong, it's just really wrong.
I hope for McLaren's sake they do get it right,
but I hope for my sake that they don't.
So I can continue to laugh at Tommy
not getting the point for this ridiculous prediction.
He's now done three race weekends in a row.
My crazy prediction,
Hamilton gets a podium in either sprint or main race.
Come on, my goat. Let's go.
It's got to be done.
That again, it is crazy,
because Hamilton has had one sprint win this entire year.
But two sprint podiums.
And is it two sprint podiums?
So out of...
Four races so far.
Yeah, no, but it's fine.
Yeah, it's all good.
Is that crazy?
Yeah, he's on a sprint podium.
It's got to be main podium, surely.
We'll see about when the results win.
Terms and conditions will apply afterwards.
Oh, gosh, hold on.
All right, no, wait.
Yeah, we'll revisit.
Right, so let's go to our Patreon prediction,
where if you're part of the P1 Patreon,
you can get involved
and submit your prediction
via the Discord,
as well as, of course, getting ad-free listening
and many other perks.
My Patreon prediction comes in from Peyton G.
Max is within a race win
from the championship lead
after the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend.
Oh, my God, you have gone so...
Why do you think I have this red bull shirt
from about 10 years ago?
Oh, my goodness me.
You've gone so ham with this.
I have. Why not?
I believe in something crazy.
I want to see this story unfold
and I want to see Max somehow win this championship
from more than 100 points behind.
We all live sporting stories
and this would be one of them.
We all live for me having a tattoo on my arse.
Oh, and that as well, of course, yeah.
So my Patreon prediction
is from Jensen's listening
and speaking of all eggs in the basket,
it is Lewis finally breaks his Ferrari podium drought.
Okay, so we both got...
That's crazy.
So there's a bit of blocking, is it?
Because we're equal, but I'd already picked it.
So obviously, as we've said many times
and as you'll know, based on how many times
we go for the same thing without realising it,
we don't see each other's...
Well, there you go.
That basically sign seals deliver it for me.
My crazy prediction is either the sprint or the main race
because you've literally gone for the same prediction as me
if it is just the main race.
So thank you very much.
I will take the slightly more flexible, crazy prediction.
Get in the bin, Tom Bellingham.
Right, it's family predictions time.
It is hotting up.
It's hotting up mainly because neither of us
are scoring any points, so it's still close.
So true.
One point is 10-9 to the boring Bellingham's once again
and Ellie is on the line.
Well, she will be on the line.
She thought she had a nail appointment at three,
which is an hour from now.
So it was like a lot of time,
but it's actually two o'clock.
So her nail appointment is in one minute.
So we have to get her predictions right now.
We're gonna fly through it.
Hello.
Hello.
Hi, Elle.
Welcome from the nail salon.
I just sat just outside the nail salon
because I didn't want to do it inside the nail salon.
That would have been better actually
because then you could have asked their opinions as well.
Okay.
The nail salon top three.
I don't think they're that avid Formula One watches,
but we can try.
How do you know?
You know?
You will.
Yeah, I think we've talked about it before
and I think they said no.
Oh, fair enough.
Okay, right.
So give me your top three
Brazilian Grand Prix starting with third.
Inside, I'm gonna go for Lando Norris.
Okay.
P3 Lando.
Yeah, P2.
In second, I'm gonna go for George Russell.
Hello.
Good evening.
And he's coming back fighting for this week
after last Grand Prix.
Okay.
All right.
And in first position, please.
It's gotta be Max to stop him.
Oh my God.
Oh my word.
To be honest, that is very tasty predictions
and there's no criticism to be had.
It's Brazil.
You can just literally...
I mean, Georgina literally put Alonso in last time.
This was probably where we wanted to field Alonso,
if anything, if there's one race weekend.
Yeah.
But thank you so much.
I hope your nails go well
and I hope they will have the Brazilian flag on them.
Probably not, but...
Okay.
Bye, love you, bye.
Love you.
All right.
I'm not against that at all.
I'm not against that top three.
It feels like it's going to come true
and that's the three pointer for the Gallagher's.
Tommy, who are you fielding this week?
Well, I've taken a big risk here
because the Bellingham...
I don't feel like we've scored points in absolutely ages.
We obviously had a massive lead at one point
and I don't feel like we're scoring many points.
But I'm putting trust in Grace again.
No.
Wheel knowledge has improved.
I'm trusting her.
So last night I got her to...
I've recorded another video with her
where I had all the drivers on screen
and I'll play it for you now.
Here we go.
Can you see these racing drivers?
I need you to tell me who's going to finish
third at the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Which one?
Oscar Piastri?
Okay, who's going to finish second?
I don't know.
Lewis Hamilton?
Yes.
Wow.
And who's going to win the Brazilian Grand Prix?
Who's that?
It just happened.
It just happened.
That's a good prediction.
There we go.
A Max Lewis.
A Max Win, a Ferrari second,
and a McLaren third.
I'm pretty proud of it to be honest.
I thought it might be about, I don't know,
until she's maybe like 20 years old.
She'll come on the podcast and replace you.
It's now within a couple of months.
Can you imagine?
More wheel knowledge.
I was thinking this afternoon.
Can you imagine if we got the same result as last time
and she missed out on the double Alpine podium
and she didn't actually predict him
and then it comes in?
That's so true.
Gosh, I completely forgot that even happened.
But Grace has fielded a strong top three.
It's a strong top three.
The brainwashing's happened.
You've been playing some nursery rhymes
that are like, you will choose.
Oscar Piastri P3.
True.
Although she's picked one driver
that's not had decent form
and been on a podium a while
and one driver that's not been on the podium
at all this season, but maybe.
If there's one place to make a change,
it's this one.
Thank you, Grace.
And there we have it.
It is all locked in.
I love how aggressively I've gone
on a long weather forecast
nine days away that what we're going to see
is moisture in the air
and a wet Brazilian Grand Prix.
But I'm just in, I'm very much glass half full.
If anything, my glass is completely full
at the moment when it comes
to Formula One in the season.
Tommy is, he's so dehydrated.
It's crazy.
The man is, his pessimistic voice
is absolutely controlling at the moment.
So with that being said,
what are your final thoughts, pessimistic Tommy?
My final thoughts are,
I won't be pessimistic
and I'll end on an optimistic thought
because as I will be in the future,
I'll say I'm having the best time
of the delusion tour in North America right now
and the shows the other day were incredible
and you need to make sure that you go see them
because honestly, last night it was unbelievable.
You wouldn't believe it.
It was a banger.
I can't believe I crowd surfed.
That was crazy.
Naked.
Yeah, that was...
No, we want people to go.
Yeah, people were choosing where to put the tata.
Anyway, right, so there you go.
That is it.
Thank you everybody for watching and listening as always.
We will see you for our live streams.
We'll still be streaming even if we are
out in North America doing our shows.
In a Denver hotel.
Yeah, be live streaming somewhere in Denver
and I look forward to it very much.
We'll see you then, lots of love, take care.
Bye.
Max is having a stink now, isn't he?
Yeah, and so is Hamilton.
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