Our 2025 Brazil GP predictions

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Hello everybody and welcome back

to the P1 Bogars with Matt and Tommy.

Predictions for the Brazilian Grand Prix,

otherwise known as the Lottery.

More so than most other weeks, to be honest with you,

where we just try and make it up on the spot.

But this one, Brazil, how can you not be excited for it, Tommy?

We are pre-recording this because we're going to be out in North America

doing our lovely P1 Live Delusion tour, which to be fair,

it is your literal last chance now because when this goes out,

we may have already done a show or two.

So it's tix.to forward slash P1 Live.

Get some tickets if the show hasn't already happened.

But we're going to be there, which means we are predicting a little bit earlier in the week.

Well, to be fair, it's literally the week before.

It's nine days away, in fact, to be completely precise

from the Brazilian Grand Prix main race.

Is it enough to know the weather? That's the real...

I've already looked at it, man.

I've already looked at it.

Yeah, I've already looked at it.

It's looking weird.

It's looking really, really moist.

Why did I say that?

Why did I say moist?

I've ruined the whole podcast episode.

It is looking like it may well be wet, Tommy,

which...

Hubba, hubba.

Don't you be changing your predictions now?

I should have told you at the end of the episode.

But it's not an absolute guarantee.

You know, we are many days away from the actual race starting

and it's not like 100% guaranteed.

I think it was like 50% on the Friday, 60% Saturday

and then maybe a slight lower chance for Sunday as of recording.

So, how are you feeling, Tommy?

I've spoken a lot in this intro.

I'm hyped.

I love this race.

It's a sprint weekend as well, of course.

They got rid of it last next year,

which is shameful, has to be said.

Always should be a sprint.

And yeah, lots of hype going into it

because it always seems to deliver.

And every time we go,

maybe this year it won't deliver.

It tends to still deliver.

So, Brazil is like an anti-jinks.

So, let's see if maybe this year is a stinker.

Fingers crossed, not.

Hopefully it's the absolute bang a weekend of the season.

It is currently 48, 48 in the predictions championship.

It is going down to the wire.

I can't believe it.

It's closer than the real-life drivers championship

by one point, which I mean, again, we will take that, won't we?

Yeah, definitely.

It is your turn to go first.

Good luck.

Oh, indeed.

So, good surprise I have gone for.

Brazilian, national, Lewis Hamilton.

Oh, for God's sake!

No, we haven't predicted the same again.

Look at that last week.

That was wild.

Well, I was saying, I mean, my reaction would...

Okay, so, yeah.

Good surprise gone for Lewis Hamilton.

I think, look, he's got to get that podium at some point.

You sound like me for Ferrari and winning it every year.

Yeah, but genuinely, the last race, you know,

qualified well, looked, obviously, you know,

we're not going to talk again about the incident that happened,

but it was looking good for him until it went wrong.

So, he's shown improvement, and I do feel like it's going to happen

in a place for it to happen if it did.

So, Hamilton does normally, you know, bring us a game

for his own fans.

So, I'm going for Lewis Hamilton.

All right.

This is how we're playing it, is it?

Okay.

So, to clarify, if my expression and reaction wasn't enough,

I also was going to go for Lewis Hamilton.

Good surprise.

So, why don't I whip out ye old faithful George Russell

as my good surprise?

To be honest, I had actually put George initially when I was

thinking of my predictions, and I went,

surely Hamilton is the easiest good surprise lock-in here

if he has a good weekend.

Sadly, Tommy has taken that away from me.

So, George Russell, it is, because look,

George is one round here before.

Merca, sometimes incredibly good this season,

and I feel like I don't predict them anywhere near enough

in my predictions because I always think of Red Bull

and McLaren and sometimes the occasional Ferrari Hopium.

So, I'm not even upset about putting George Russell

as my good surprise, so that is locked in.

We now head to a big flop.

I reckon we might be two from two here of things we've gone for

if we're thinking of loopholes right now.

I have gone for Ollie Bearman as my big flop

because not only, of course, he nearly got a podium.

No, no, it's classic, but there's more to it.

All right.

There's more layers.

This is like a lasagna.

Not that I know how to make a lasagna,

but I know there's layers.

Ollie Bearman had probably the worst weekend

of his racing career last time out in Brazil

where he was just hardly ever facing in the right direction

and really struggled.

And if it is a wet weekend again,

I'm not saying he's going to have the same weekend,

but anything lower than fifth, and that's a point.

But I just see that Hass won't be as strong

and that's why I've gone for Ollie Bearman.

In fact, that's why I went for a last time out

and it did not pay off.

So I've gone back to back, Ollie Bearman flops.

You have, yeah.

But this is what happens if Ollie's going to drop a P4,

I'm going to have to double down here.

So that's what I've gone for.

So big flop I have gone for.

Now, you've got a smirk on your face.

No, it's not a happy one.

It's Max Verstappen.

Max Verstappen, the pessimistic Tommy is out in full force.

But there is logic behind it

and that logic is going to rain at Brazil

and last year it was terrible.

No, my logic here is Max Verstappen,

we're getting to that part of the season.

We already saw it somewhat in Mexico

where he has to throw everything on the line and more,

take maximum risk in every single situation.

We already saw that in Mexico.

It's going to ramp up even more in Brazil

that he can't afford to play it safe.

Every dive bomb that's possible is going for it.

Every, you know, bending of the rules,

every corner cut, everything possible.

And I feel like, you know,

if in a sprint weekend,

if he goes absolutely ham,

it could be, you know, potentially game over.

So I hope I'm wrong.

Of course I do.

But I'm going for Max.

Absolutely fascinating.

Could not more strongly disagree with every pessimistic

thought you've had about Max Verstappen there.

I will say, before we go into sprint poll, et cetera, et cetera,

I firmly believe, you know, Tommy,

you've said it many times in the podcast

in the last few weekends of,

well, you know, let's just see what happens in...

Well, let's just see what happens in qualif...

Brazil is categorically yes or no

of Max Verstappen in this type of thing.

Yeah, yeah, I agree.

100% because there is...

It's a sprint weekend.

We saw how many points

you took out of Oscar Piatri and Austin.

If he does the same here this weekend,

my goodness gracious me, it's championship on.

But alternatively, if he has a fourth and a sixth

in the two competitive sessions,

competitive races...

It's over, yeah.

It's over, it's done.

So this is what will make Brazil

even more interesting than it already is.

And I, yeah, I firmly believe

in the absolute opposite direction

as we're about to find out.

Sprint poll, Tom Bellingham, please.

Sprint poll, I'm going for...

Charles Leclerc.

Sorry, may we just revert to the start

of the podcast where I said,

Friday has the highest likelihood of rain

and you went,

Ferrari are pretty good at that.

Yeah, it'll be dry, it'll be dry.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I go for Charles Leclerc.

Straight out of the blocks, why not?

I feel like he'll have a strong weekend

and you can tell that I'm spreading the eggs

because I went for low-time and good surprise.

You really are.

I'm not spreading them too far

because if Ferrari are rubbish

then you've basically put two predictions

directly in the bin.

Well, I have gone for Max Verstappen

as my sprint poll.

Genuinely on paper,

as we look at it right now,

could there be a more dreamy setup

for a Max Verstappen domination?

I went to Brazil where he did the greatest

drive of all time last year.

So it's Brazil, of course, this weekend.

It's looking like, fingers crossed,

it'll be wet.

And it's a sprint weekend

that Max is full well-known to be phenomenal at.

Strung out the blocks, yeah.

He's won 12 sprints or something?

13 now and the most anyone's ever won

is two apart from one.

Exactly.

So the records are suggesting one way

and I am seeing the headlines already now

that people may think the Tom Bellion

was throwing the predictions championship

backing Ferrari at this stage of the season.

But I will take it.

Gallagher comes down the inside

and takes the lead.

That's what I'm saying.

I'll take it for a Max domination

winning a championship.

You really would.

So yeah, my sprint poll is Max Verstappen.

We now head to the sprint winner

and my sprint winner.

Don't you dare.

It's my go.

Yeah, nice try.

Nice try.

Try a little move down the inside there.

Late breaking.

I've closed the gap.

My sprint winner is Max Verstappen.

Yes.

Max Verstappen is getting the sprint poll.

Sprint win.

Tommy is win-milling on the livestream

and it's going to be just absolutely phenomenal.

The win-milling or the championship.

Both.

OK.

Sprint winner I have gone for

Lando Norris.

I think he's going to continue his good form.

He was so dominant last time out.

I'm fascinated to see how Lando will do.

You mentioned it like it can go one of either way.

He withstands the pressure, continues his form.

We all saw what happened last year.

There's obviously this whole talk of

has he been really good and improved

because the pressure is off him leading the title.

He's leading the title now.

I'm potentially going to go into a wet Brazilian Grand Prix

after what happened last year.

We're about to see it is such a fascinating setup.

But I personally saw a new driver in Lando Norris.

I think it was a championship worthy drive that he did

and I think he'll continue his good form.

Absolutely fair opinion indeed, Tom Bellingham.

We now go to poll position for the main Grand Prix.

Poll position I've gone for.

Lando Norris.

I actually predicted it without knowing the weather

but of course Lando is a very solid driver as well.

So yeah, I'll go for Lando to continue his good form.

Obviously got him winning the sprint

and then go straight into qualifying

a mere few hours later and does it again.

Okay, Lando Norris is locked in for Tommy.

I can confirm I was not going to go for LN

for the pole position because I'm going for...

It's Max Verstappen once again.

It's a Max Verstappen clean sweep

in terms of sprint pole sprint win and pole position.

I'm here for it.

I'm living it.

I'm dreaming it.

I want it.

I want everything to do with Max Verstappen

being a part of this three way fight.

And am I really that delusional?

Yes, he was absolutely nowhere in Mexico

in comparison to Lando.

But Brazil is a whole different kettle of fish.

I will say, right, in these predict...

If it is a bone dry Brazilian Grand Prix weekend

I'm scoring zero points because Lando has won everything.

However, weather don't let me down.

That's all I'll say to make this championship interesting.

I've never wanted to lose this prediction championship

in literally one single weekend of just being over.

But I'll take it for the championship.

Yes, you certainly will.

For sure.

Imagine you're like,

Max is 16 points behind the championship lead now

but I've lost five points in the championship.

Oh, no.

In the main championship of predictions.

We'll just have to wait till Kata.

That's what I'll be saying.

Oh, no.

Actually, I kind of hope Max actually is out of the title fight

just so I can stop hearing you say,

we need to wait until Abu Dhabi Free Practice 3

to really understand.

Yes.

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Right, okay.

We now head to the main race results

in third position.

I am locking in Lewis Hamilton.

And this is not something I'm doing

because I thought you were going to put it as well.

But you only had that in my predictions

before you even said about Good Surprise.

Because I said I was going to put Good Surprise Lewis Hamilton

as Tommy ferociously now changes his P3.

George Russell is being filled in as we speak.

Literally in red.

But for me, it is Lewis Hamilton.

He's going to get his first podium

and it's going to be at Brazil.

What a moment for...

First podium ever. First podium for Ferrari.

Tommy, over to you.

I'm going to go for...

George Russell.

Oh, it's so annoying because I even thought

about the meme and was like,

oh, you know, I always go for a backup of George Russell.

But it is P3, so I was kind of like...

P3, yeah?

I couldn't see it happening. P3, yeah.

So, yeah, going for George again.

OK. And that's an absolutely fair prediction as well.

I could easily feel him as a backup.

It's not even for the banter.

It's George Russell.

He's a very solid driver around there.

OK, we head to second position, Tommy.

Second position I've gone for.

Charles Leclerc.

Is it a double Ferrari podium?

That's a wet Brazil, potentially.

Yeah, that's what I had gone for.

Obviously, I've now changed Lewis Hamilton out.

Of course, yeah, that's what I'm thinking.

Yeah, so I've gone for good surprise for Lewis Hamilton

and then predicted his teammates to finish second

and get sprint pole.

I love how you like Hamilton P3,

but I can't upgrade it to P2.

There's no chance about that.

Yeah, no, I was thinking about it,

but I'll stick with it because I'll kick myself

if it comes in and change.

So, yeah, I'll give Charles Leclerc.

OK, Charles Leclerc P2.

My second position is Lando Norris.

OK.

Finally, a brain cell is speaking in my brain

just purely from the fact

that Lando won Mexico by a country mile

and if, as I said,

if we have dry, sensible conditions

or a sensible race,

I firmly believe that Lando will win

by a big old margin,

but Brazil is never simple.

So, I've gone for second anyway

because I'm not expecting a massive Lando fall-off.

I'm also not expecting Oscar Piastri

to be on Lando's pace.

I feel like this is going to be

Struggletown now for Oscar from now

to the end of the season

from what we've seen over the last few Grand Prix.

I hope not as well for his sake

because it will be difficult for him to bounce back in 26

knowing that he led the championship for so long,

but you have to go from what you've seen

in the last few weekends

and it's been an advantage Lando.

So, P2 for Lando Norris.

In first position

for the Brazilian Grand Prix,

I am locking in

Max Verstappen.

It's a complete and utter whitewash.

It's MV All Day, baby.

Please.

It's funny because I would have been slandered

doing this as my predictions in 2023.

In 2025, I am heralded

for putting Max Verstappen

in all of these positions

because it is seen as a left-field approach these days,

which is crazy.

I've gone all in

and most of my eggs are in Max's basket.

So, there you go.

He has to win, doesn't he? Let's be honest.

It will be the greatest weekend for Formula One.

If firstly, I take the lead of the predictions championship

and secondly, Max gets within about 15 points

of the lead of the world title as well.

What do you...

Obviously, we all know my answer will be...

We have to wait to Qatar.

But what do you think the points,

like seven, probably not enough

of a gain, say like Lando's second.

Yeah, it kind of almost needs to be like...

He needs to be within a win with those three rounds,

to go, I'd say.

We need to be getting into the 25s.

Especially with Qatar, where...

Qatar, McLaren...

That is on paper, McLaren.

Vegas is a race where McLaren could really

struggle like they have in the past.

Is that a buggy track?

Vegas, I think, is beat George Russell again

for Max.

Yeah, yeah, it could be.

And then, yeah, we go into...

Qatar and Abu Dhabi I do think

should in theory be McLaren territory,

but we thought that a lot this season

and then Max just went on this crazy winning streak,

so who knows.

So there you go.

Who is, which is, where is...

Who's your P1?

It is Lando Norris.

I have gone for the

dry weather prediction of Lando.

But even if it does rain,

he's been really good in the wet

throughout his career.

And I just think that confidence

boost that he's had

going from Mexico.

Interestingly, both of us have not

put Oscar Piastri anywhere near our predictions.

And as you said, and as I'll say again,

I hope I'm wrong because we need Oscar

in this title fight to make it

as interesting as possible as well.

And it'd be such a shame for him

to just fall off at this final stage

when he had been leading so long.

So I do hope he is in it,

but I am like you very worried

about his form.

Fingers crossed it changes,

but I just can't see past Lando

this weekend based on what we saw

in...

in Mexico.

And yes, my very pessimistic prediction

continued.

Not even put Max.

No.

Other than flop.

You've basically got Lando leading

by at least sort of 16 or more points

come the end of this weekend.

Yeah, for Oscar, another reason

why I've not put him in my top three

is purely from the fact that if he is

struggling in qualifying compared to Lando,

say two, three tenths,

that is enormous around a track

like Brazil where I foresee

a very close qualifying unless we get a rainy one

and it's a has on pole again.

If it's a dry one,

you could easily see Oscar

towards the bottom of the top 10

if he is losing those two, three tenths

that when the margins are so tight

in Brazil, so that's another reason

to throw into the mix.

As we now head into no reasoning

whatsoever, our one crazy prediction

is for you, Tommy.

It is.

And you'll be surprised to hear

that it is.

All McLaren pit stops for under three seconds.

I am...

I mean, look, if you want to keep...

I am throwing away points the rest of the season.

It is mad.

It genuinely is mad.

By the way, can we just...

Sorry, before you...

This is a sprint weekend as well.

You know, there could be changeable conditions.

Like...

No, for the race, for the Grand Prix.

Okay.

I should have...

I shouldn't have clarified that.

I'm glad you did because, yeah, that's the...

That's bold.

Well, no, they didn't pit in a sprint.

They do they, I guess.

I was saying if it's changeable conditions, they might.

Yeah, true.

Oh, God, the jeopardy of changeable conditions

is even more extreme, isn't it?

But no, I'm going for it again.

I can't actually genuinely believe

that this keeps happening.

It is quite insane and the fact that...

You know, McLaren, it's weirdly like...

Other than Lando in Monza,

we get to have a moment where it's like really been like,

oh my God, because obviously

that made them switch positions.

But what's so weird is it's only ever like one of the cars.

You know, last time out, they failed this again,

but then won the fastest pit stop award.

Yeah.

When they get it right, this literally like 2.1, 2.0,

like bangers,

and when they get it wrong, it's just really wrong.

I hope for McLaren's sake they do get it right,

but I hope for my sake that they don't.

So I can continue to laugh at Tommy

not getting the point for this ridiculous prediction.

He's now done three race weekends in a row.

My crazy prediction,

Hamilton gets a podium in either sprint or main race.

Come on, my goat. Let's go.

It's got to be done.

That again, it is crazy,

because Hamilton has had one sprint win this entire year.

But two sprint podiums.

And is it two sprint podiums?

So out of...

Four races so far.

Yeah, no, but it's fine.

Yeah, it's all good.

Is that crazy?

Yeah, he's on a sprint podium.

It's got to be main podium, surely.

We'll see about when the results win.

Terms and conditions will apply afterwards.

Oh, gosh, hold on.

All right, no, wait.

Yeah, we'll revisit.

Right, so let's go to our Patreon prediction,

where if you're part of the P1 Patreon,

you can get involved

and submit your prediction

via the Discord,

as well as, of course, getting ad-free listening

and many other perks.

My Patreon prediction comes in from Peyton G.

Max is within a race win

from the championship lead

after the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend.

Oh, my God, you have gone so...

Why do you think I have this red bull shirt

from about 10 years ago?

Oh, my goodness me.

You've gone so ham with this.

I have. Why not?

I believe in something crazy.

I want to see this story unfold

and I want to see Max somehow win this championship

from more than 100 points behind.

We all live sporting stories

and this would be one of them.

We all live for me having a tattoo on my arse.

Oh, and that as well, of course, yeah.

So my Patreon prediction

is from Jensen's listening

and speaking of all eggs in the basket,

it is Lewis finally breaks his Ferrari podium drought.

Okay, so we both got...

That's crazy.

So there's a bit of blocking, is it?

Because we're equal, but I'd already picked it.

So obviously, as we've said many times

and as you'll know, based on how many times

we go for the same thing without realising it,

we don't see each other's...

Well, there you go.

That basically sign seals deliver it for me.

My crazy prediction is either the sprint or the main race

because you've literally gone for the same prediction as me

if it is just the main race.

So thank you very much.

I will take the slightly more flexible, crazy prediction.

Get in the bin, Tom Bellingham.

Right, it's family predictions time.

It is hotting up.

It's hotting up mainly because neither of us

are scoring any points, so it's still close.

So true.

One point is 10-9 to the boring Bellingham's once again

and Ellie is on the line.

Well, she will be on the line.

She thought she had a nail appointment at three,

which is an hour from now.

So it was like a lot of time,

but it's actually two o'clock.

So her nail appointment is in one minute.

So we have to get her predictions right now.

We're gonna fly through it.

Hello.

Hi, Elle.

Welcome from the nail salon.

I just sat just outside the nail salon

because I didn't want to do it inside the nail salon.

That would have been better actually

because then you could have asked their opinions as well.

Okay.

The nail salon top three.

I don't think they're that avid Formula One watches,

but we can try.

How do you know?

You know?

You will.

Yeah, I think we've talked about it before

and I think they said no.

Oh, fair enough.

Okay, right.

So give me your top three

Brazilian Grand Prix starting with third.

Inside, I'm gonna go for Lando Norris.

Okay.

P3 Lando.

Yeah, P2.

In second, I'm gonna go for George Russell.

Hello.

Good evening.

And he's coming back fighting for this week

after last Grand Prix.

Okay.

All right.

And in first position, please.

It's gotta be Max to stop him.

Oh my God.

Oh my word.

To be honest, that is very tasty predictions

and there's no criticism to be had.

It's Brazil.

You can just literally...

I mean, Georgina literally put Alonso in last time.

This was probably where we wanted to field Alonso,

if anything, if there's one race weekend.

Yeah.

But thank you so much.

I hope your nails go well

and I hope they will have the Brazilian flag on them.

Probably not, but...

Okay.

Bye, love you, bye.

Love you.

All right.

I'm not against that at all.

I'm not against that top three.

It feels like it's going to come true

and that's the three pointer for the Gallagher's.

Tommy, who are you fielding this week?

Well, I've taken a big risk here

because the Bellingham...

I don't feel like we've scored points in absolutely ages.

We obviously had a massive lead at one point

and I don't feel like we're scoring many points.

But I'm putting trust in Grace again.

No.

Wheel knowledge has improved.

I'm trusting her.

So last night I got her to...

I've recorded another video with her

where I had all the drivers on screen

and I'll play it for you now.

Here we go.

Can you see these racing drivers?

I need you to tell me who's going to finish

third at the Brazilian Grand Prix.

Which one?

Oscar Piastri?

Okay, who's going to finish second?

I don't know.

Lewis Hamilton?

Yes.

Wow.

And who's going to win the Brazilian Grand Prix?

Who's that?

It just happened.

That's a good prediction.

There we go.

A Max Lewis.

A Max Win, a Ferrari second,

and a McLaren third.

I'm pretty proud of it to be honest.

I thought it might be about, I don't know,

until she's maybe like 20 years old.

She'll come on the podcast and replace you.

It's now within a couple of months.

Can you imagine?

More wheel knowledge.

I was thinking this afternoon.

Can you imagine if we got the same result as last time

and she missed out on the double Alpine podium

and she didn't actually predict him

and then it comes in?

That's so true.

Gosh, I completely forgot that even happened.

But Grace has fielded a strong top three.

It's a strong top three.

The brainwashing's happened.

You've been playing some nursery rhymes

that are like, you will choose.

Oscar Piastri P3.

True.

Although she's picked one driver

that's not had decent form

and been on a podium a while

and one driver that's not been on the podium

at all this season, but maybe.

If there's one place to make a change,

it's this one.

Thank you, Grace.

And there we have it.

It is all locked in.

I love how aggressively I've gone

on a long weather forecast

nine days away that what we're going to see

is moisture in the air

and a wet Brazilian Grand Prix.

But I'm just in, I'm very much glass half full.

If anything, my glass is completely full

at the moment when it comes

to Formula One in the season.

Tommy is, he's so dehydrated.

It's crazy.

The man is, his pessimistic voice

is absolutely controlling at the moment.

So with that being said,

what are your final thoughts, pessimistic Tommy?

My final thoughts are,

I won't be pessimistic

and I'll end on an optimistic thought

because as I will be in the future,

I'll say I'm having the best time

of the delusion tour in North America right now

and the shows the other day were incredible

and you need to make sure that you go see them

because honestly, last night it was unbelievable.

You wouldn't believe it.

It was a banger.

I can't believe I crowd surfed.

That was crazy.

Naked.

Yeah, that was...

No, we want people to go.

Yeah, people were choosing where to put the tata.

Anyway, right, so there you go.

That is it.

Thank you everybody for watching and listening as always.

We will see you for our live streams.

We'll still be streaming even if we are

out in North America doing our shows.

In a Denver hotel.

Yeah, be live streaming somewhere in Denver

and I look forward to it very much.

We'll see you then, lots of love, take care.

Bye.

Max is having a stink now, isn't he?

Yeah, and so is Hamilton.

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Our 2025 Brazil GP predictions

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