Our 2026 Austrian GP Predictions
About this episode
Race week at the Red Bull Ring sets the tone as Matt and Tommy frame Austria as a “power track” where straight-mode behavior and “overtake activation” near the last corner could shuffle the order. They debate whether Mercedes can repeat a dominant run, citing past “meltdowns” and reliability pressure, while backing Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc for strong weekends. Pole and podium picks land on Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, and more, plus plenty of off-track chaos and prediction-game banter.
We're back! This weekend is setting up to be a hugely interesting one in Austria, so let's get into some predictions - including a truly generational top three from someone with "0 wheel knowledge' in the family predictions.
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Formula One
"Now we're in the momentum month... We get to talk about some more Formula One."
Formula One (F1) is the top tier of open-wheel motorsport, with teams racing highly engineered cars on purpose-built circuits. In F1, race-weekend performance can swing quickly based on track characteristics and car setup.
Red Bull Ring
"And I'm very excited Tommy to see what Austria, the Red Bull Ring and the sound of music can bring to us."
The Red Bull Ring is the Formula 1 track in Austria. It has a lot of fast turns and hills, so the way a car grips the road matters a lot for who wins.
The Red Bull Ring is a Formula 1 circuit in Austria known for its fast corners and rolling elevation changes. It’s a frequent venue for races where car setup and traction can swing results, making it a big deal for predictions.
straight modes
"Also worth mentioning is that there are four straight modes for the Austrian Grand Prix. So basically, anytime there's a straight, it's a straight mode."
“Straight modes” are different driving settings the car uses depending on whether it’s going down a straight or through corners. The idea is to make the car faster and more effective where passing is more likely.
“Straight modes” are track-dependent settings that change how an F1 car behaves on straights versus corners. The host is describing a system where each straight corresponds to a specific mode, affecting throttle/energy use and aerodynamic behavior to optimize speed and overtaking.
overtake activation
"And then in terms of where the activation point, the overtake activation is just before the last corner."
“Overtake activation” is when the car gets access to extra help for passing. In this case, it kicks in right before the last corner, so that’s when you’ll see attempts to gain position.
In modern F1, “overtake activation” refers to the moment when a car’s energy/boost or aerodynamic assistance is allowed to help it attack. The host is saying the activation happens just before the last corner, which affects when drivers can realistically make a move.
DRS
"So you can keep an eye out for that similar, I think to how we used to have DRS in the past."
DRS is a system in Formula 1 that briefly reduces drag by changing the rear wing. The goal is to help cars get close enough to pass on certain parts of the track.
DRS (Drag Reduction System) is an F1 rule that temporarily reduces aerodynamic drag by opening a rear wing flap. It’s designed to make overtaking easier on designated straights when certain conditions are met.
Kevin Magnussen
"But former Formula One driver, Kevin Magnussen, was stealing all the headlines because nothing was happening, but also because of his NASCAR debut."
Kevin Magnussen is a well-known Formula 1 driver. In this segment, they’re talking about him trying NASCAR for the first time, which is a big change from F1.
Kevin Magnussen is a Danish Formula 1 driver who has also competed in other top motorsport series. Here, he’s being discussed in the context of his NASCAR debut, which is notable because it’s a major switch in racing style and car type.
NASCAR debut
"But former Formula One driver, Kevin Magnussen, was stealing all the headlines because nothing was happening, but also because of his NASCAR debut."
A “NASCAR debut” is when someone races NASCAR for the first time. NASCAR is a different kind of racing than F1, so it often draws extra attention when a top driver makes the switch.
A “NASCAR debut” means a driver’s first race in NASCAR, a stock-car series with different cars, rules, and racing strategies than F1. The host is using it to explain why Magnussen was getting attention even when the on-track action was otherwise slow.
brake testing
"The guy was brake testing him for 33rd place."
“Brake testing” is when a driver brakes in a way that forces the other driver to slow down or change their line. It’s usually meant to mess with the other car’s rhythm and make passing harder.
“Brake testing” is a racing tactic where one driver deliberately brakes earlier or harder to force another driver to react, often to disrupt their momentum or positioning. In close racing, it can escalate into contact or aggressive defending.
Lando Norris
"Of course, something about Lando Norris, I just think of the Red Bull Ring [492.8s] and the Austrian Grand Prix and Lando Norris. [494.9s] He is brilliant around here."
Lando Norris is a Formula 1 race driver. The hosts are saying he tends to do well at the Austrian track and have had good results there before.
Lando Norris is a Formula 1 driver known for strong qualifying pace and consistent racecraft. In this segment, the hosts connect him to the Red Bull Ring and discuss his past podium results there.
Austrian Grand Prix
"Of course, something about Lando Norris, I just think of the Red Bull Ring [492.8s] and the Austrian Grand Prix and Lando Norris."
It’s a Formula 1 race in Austria. Drivers race on a track called the Red Bull Ring, and the cars have to brake hard and manage tires well.
The Austrian Grand Prix is a Formula 1 race held at the Red Bull Ring in Austria. It’s known for short lap times and heavy braking zones that reward strong car balance and tire management.
podium
"He got a podium in 2020 and 2021, as I was saying, [502.2s] back when McLaren certainly weren't the front-running team like they had been."
A “podium” finish means finishing in the top three positions. In F1, that’s a big deal because it shows you were one of the fastest cars that day.
In Formula 1, a “podium” finish means placing in the top three—1st, 2nd, or 3rd. It’s a key performance marker because it indicates the driver and car were competitive enough to finish ahead of most of the field.
McLaren
"He got a podium in 2020 and 2021, as I was saying, [502.2s] back when McLaren certainly weren't the front-running team like they had been."
McLaren is a Formula 1 racing team. The hosts are talking about how strong they were (or weren’t) at different points in recent seasons.
McLaren is a Formula 1 team and constructor with a long history of winning races and championships. In this segment, the hosts contrast McLaren’s earlier competitiveness with the idea that they weren’t always front-running.
Charles Leclerc
"Charles Leclerc. Honestly, I feel... There's a loophole as if he doesn't go into a wall... I feel like a banging Charles Leclerc weekend is coming up."
Charles Leclerc is a Formula 1 race driver. The hosts are talking about how he might do in the Austrian Grand Prix and why they think he could be strong again.
Charles Leclerc is a top Formula 1 driver known for his speed and qualifying pace with Ferrari. In this segment, the hosts discuss his Austrian Grand Prix prospects and his recent form, including how he’s bounced back after mistakes and incidents.
Kimi Antonelli
"81 points behind Kimberi Antonelli... Charles Leclerc evened the gap between himself and Kimi Antonelli at the Barcelona-Castellini Grand Prix."
Kimi Antonelli is another Formula 1 driver. The hosts compare his points to Leclerc’s and talk about how close Leclerc is in the standings.
Kimi Antonelli is a Formula 1 driver mentioned here as the championship points leader relative to Leclerc. The hosts discuss the points gap (“81 points behind”) and how Leclerc’s results can close it.
will-to-will battle
"I feel like he changed as a driver when Max Verstappen shoved him wide in that will-to-will battle in 2022."
A “will-to-will battle” means two drivers are fighting hard for the same spot on the track. It’s basically a no-backing-down kind of race duel.
“Will-to-will battle” describes a high-intensity, direct racing duel where both drivers are committed to the same piece of track and keep pushing for position. It’s less about strategy and more about pure driver intent—who can force the other off the line or gain the advantage.
Barcelona-Castellini Grand Prix
"Charles Leclerc evened the gap between himself and Kimi Antonelli at the Barcelona-Castellini Grand Prix. Didn't lose any points to Kimi."
They’re talking about a specific race in Barcelona where they think Leclerc improved his championship position. It’s used as evidence for how his season is trending.
The “Barcelona-Castellini Grand Prix” is referenced as a specific race where the hosts say Leclerc “evened the gap” to Kimi Antonelli. In F1 talk, this kind of reference is used to anchor championship momentum and point swings.
benchmark
"But Barcelona is a track that is quite literally the benchmark, the baseline for a Formula One car."
A “benchmark” is a reference point. Here, they mean Barcelona is a track they trust to compare how fast different F1 cars really are.
In motorsport analysis, a “benchmark” is a reference track or reference performance standard used to judge whether a car is truly competitive. The host is using it to say Barcelona is a reliable place to compare teams’ relative speed.
power track
"The explanation is very much a power track. Maybe Ferrari bring their engine upgrades."
A “power track” is a race track where engine power and acceleration matter a lot. Cars that can go fast in a straight line and speed up quickly after slowing down tend to do better there.
A “power track” is a circuit where straight-line speed and engine output matter more than pure cornering grip. The layout tends to reward cars that can accelerate hard and repeatedly, often after braking zones.
engine upgrades
"Maybe Ferrari bring their engine upgrades. Of course, it seems like they will have engine upgrades as well,"
“Engine upgrades” are updates to the engine to make it stronger or more efficient. In racing, even small improvements can help a team go faster.
“Engine upgrades” are development changes to improve an engine’s performance—typically more power, better efficiency, or improved reliability. In Formula 1, upgrades can be scheduled around race weekends as teams chase small but meaningful gains.
Ferrari
"Maybe Ferrari bring their engine upgrades. ... Of course, it seems like they will have engine upgrades as well, thanks to Red Bull having the best power unit,"
Ferrari is a famous Formula 1 team. In this segment, they’re talking about whether Ferrari’s upgrades and driving strengths will help them be fast at the Austrian GP.
Ferrari is one of Formula 1’s historic teams, and the hosts are discussing its expected pace and potential engine development. The key point here is that they think Ferrari’s strengths (cornering) may or may not translate well to a track described as favoring acceleration and braking zones.
power unit
"thanks to Red Bull having the best power unit, and then being behind."
In F1, the “power unit” is the whole hybrid power system that makes the car go. It includes the engine and the hybrid parts that store and reuse energy to help with acceleration.
In Formula 1, the “power unit” is the complete hybrid engine system, not just the internal-combustion engine. It includes the combustion engine plus energy recovery and deployment components that work together to produce lap-time performance.
Mercedes
"So, the logic behind it is that I do get your thoughts behind Mercedes, but I think Mercedes will be strong."
Mercedes is another major Formula 1 team. The hosts think Mercedes might do well here because the track favors cars that accelerate strongly after braking.
Mercedes is a Formula 1 constructor the hosts believe could be strong on a circuit they call a “power track.” Their logic is that teams with better hybrid power and acceleration should benefit from the track’s repeated braking and exit phases.
shifted some of the weight out the car
"Being a power track, rumours that Red Bull are potentially shifted some of the weight out the car, so maybe Max is in the mix as well."
“Shifting some of the weight out the car” refers to changing the car’s weight distribution or removing mass to improve balance and performance. In F1, small setup changes can affect traction, tire behavior, and how quickly the car responds in braking and acceleration.
Max
"rumours that Red Bull are potentially shifted some of the weight out the car, so maybe Max is in the mix as well."
“Max” is Max Verstappen, one of the leading F1 drivers. If they say he’s “in the mix,” they mean he could be fighting for the best positions at the front.
“Max” here refers to Max Verstappen, a top Formula 1 driver for Red Bull Racing. When the hosts say he could be “in the mix,” they mean he’s likely to contend for the front of the field based on the car’s expected performance.
pole position
"All right, pole position, no sprint weekend, straight into the Saturday pole position, Tom Bellingham."
Pole position means you start the race from the very front. It’s given to the driver who qualifies fastest, and it’s a big advantage at the start.
Pole position is the starting spot at the front of the grid for a race, awarded to the fastest qualifier. Starting from pole usually helps because you’re ahead of traffic and can control the opening laps.
FIA
"If Red Bull, because clearly they have, you know, the best power units according to the FIA,"
FIA is the organization that runs the rulebook for motorsport, including Formula 1. When they mention the FIA, they mean the official authority behind the sport.
FIA stands for Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile, the governing body that oversees Formula 1 rules and regulations. When the hosts say “according to the FIA,” they’re referring to the organization’s official assessments or rule context.
Sunday Grand Prix
"Third position for the main race, the Sunday Grand Prix. In P3, I am going to lock in Lewis Hamilton."
The Sunday Grand Prix is the main Formula 1 race on the weekend. It’s the big race where drivers score points.
The Sunday Grand Prix refers to the main Formula 1 race held on Sunday during a race weekend. It’s the headline event where points are awarded for the championship.
Lewis Hamilton
"In P3, I am going to lock in Lewis Hamilton. Now, no disrespect to Lewis Hamilton. Our third place is actually a good thing for the 2026 season."
Lewis Hamilton is a top Formula 1 driver from the UK. Here, the host is predicting he’ll finish third in the main Sunday race.
Lewis Hamilton is a British Formula 1 driver known for winning multiple World Championships and for being one of the sport’s most successful modern racers. In this segment, he’s being picked for a podium finish in the Sunday Grand Prix.
George Russell
"P2, I've gone for George Russell. Back-to-back P2s for George Russell, potentially. If this comes in, I do think Mercedes will still have a good opportunity here."
George Russell is a Formula 1 driver for Mercedes. The host is predicting he’ll finish second in the main race.
George Russell is a British Formula 1 driver who races for Mercedes. Here, he’s being predicted to finish second (P2), with the idea that Mercedes could remain competitive in the race.
reliability issues
"it just depends whether his car goes, you know, I don't fancy it this weekend and he has seven different reliability issues."
“Reliability issues” means the car might have problems—like parts not working properly. If that happens, it can hurt the driver’s results and may force the team to change parts.
In Formula 1, “reliability issues” means components failing or not performing consistently enough to finish the race or meet performance expectations. The hosts connect it to whether a driver’s car can run well and to the likelihood of needing replacement parts.
last parts
"he is very much on his last parts of certain things in his car as well."
“Last parts” means the car’s key components are nearly used up. The team tries to avoid using them too much so they don’t have to replace them early and get penalized.
“Last parts” here means the driver’s car components are at the end of their permitted usage life under F1’s component-limit rules. When teams are close to that limit, they manage running carefully to avoid triggering penalties.
penalties
"So he will be receiving penalties in the near future. So he sits in the garage all the practice to save them."
“Penalties” in F1 are punishments that can move a driver back on the starting grid. They often happen when teams replace worn-out parts too soon.
In F1, “penalties” usually refer to grid or race penalties triggered by rules like exceeding component limits (for example, changing certain power unit parts). The hosts imply Norris will be penalized soon because he’s near the end of allowable life for parts.
Charlotte Clair
"So you're like, I'm going to go for Charlotte Clair first... And Le Clair will bounce back."
This sounds like Charles Leclerc, a top Formula 1 driver. The host is saying he’ll likely do better again after a bad race.
“Charlotte Clair” is almost certainly Charles Leclerc, Ferrari’s driver. The host is discussing his ability to recover (“bounce back”) after a tough result, which is a common theme in F1 predictions.
double digit lead
"So I just want to say congratulations to you, Tommy, for having a double digit lead at the end of the Austrian Grand Prix weekend."
A “double digit lead” means one person is ahead by 10 or more points. It’s just about the score in their game.
In F1 prediction or points games, a “double digit lead” means the person is ahead by at least 10 points. It’s a scoreboard concept rather than a car tech detail, but it frames how confident the hosts are in their picks.
bounce back
"And Le Clair will bounce back... But I think he will bounce back in serious fashion."
“Bounce back” just means doing better again after something went wrong. In racing, teams try to fix the problem so the next race is stronger.
“Bounce back” in motorsport means returning to strong performance after a bad race or mistake. In F1, it often depends on whether the team fixes issues (setup, tire behavior, brake/traction problems) quickly enough for the next weekend.
brakes
"What was the recipe for bouncing back like a third different manufacturer of brakes? ... He didn't crash before because of his brakes in Spain."
Brakes are what slow the car down. In racing, they’re especially important for getting the car turned into a corner safely.
In F1, brakes are critical for slowing the car and setting up corner entry. The host is joking about whether brake issues caused crashes, and then clarifies that in Spain the problem was more about traction than brakes.
under traction
"All right, it was under traction."
“Under traction” means the tires aren’t gripping the road enough. The car can slip or not accelerate the way the driver wants.
“Under traction” means the tires didn’t have enough grip to follow the intended path, so the car loses traction and can slide or fail to accelerate cleanly. In F1 discussions, it often points to tire grip, suspension/setup, or driving technique rather than a pure braking problem.
traction manufacturer
"So we're going to have a new traction manufacturer. Oh, if you don't laugh, you'll cry."
In F1, “traction” usually means tire grip. A “traction manufacturer” is basically the company supplying the tires that help the car accelerate and turn safely.
In Formula 1, a “traction manufacturer” is the supplier responsible for the car’s traction-related technology—most commonly the tires. Tires are crucial because they provide the grip (traction) that lets the car accelerate and stay stable under load.
power steering issue
"His car broke down because he had a power steering issue. So we'll have a new steering wheel as well."
A power steering issue means the car’s steering help isn’t working. That makes steering harder, which can slow you down and make the car harder to control.
A “power steering issue” means the car’s steering assist isn’t working properly, making the wheel much harder to turn. In an F1 context, that can quickly ruin lap time and driver confidence, especially through slow corners.
steering wheel
"So we'll have a new steering wheel as well. We're so back."
In F1, the steering wheel is also a control panel. It has buttons the driver uses during the race, so if it’s replaced, it’s usually because something went wrong.
In modern F1 cars, the steering wheel isn’t just a wheel—it’s a control hub with buttons and switches for functions like changing engine modes, adjusting settings, and managing race strategy. Replacing one can happen after damage or a technical problem.
Piastri
"So crazy. No Piastri on the podium. No Piastri on the podium."
Piastri is Oscar Piastri, an F1 driver. They’re predicting he won’t make the top three this race.
Piastri refers to Oscar Piastri, an F1 driver who competes for McLaren. The hosts are saying they don’t expect him to finish on the podium in their predictions.
P-WAT
"Now let's head to our new segment for this season, the P-WAT. Where Tommy's going to load up a random number generator between 4 and 22."
P-WAT is a fun recurring game the hosts do during the show. Tommy randomly picks a number, and that number drives the next prediction.
P-WAT is a recurring podcast game/segment for this season where Tommy uses a random number generator to pick a value within a specified range. It’s not a car or racing technical term, but it’s a structural part of the show’s predictions format.
retirements
"They can have a banger of a race and also probably have to rely on quite a few retirements. Okay. Speaking of retirements, which is generally..."
“Retirements” means cars that have to stop racing and don’t finish. If more cars retire, it can help other teams finish higher and score points.
In racing, “retirements” are when a car can’t continue the race due to mechanical failure, damage, or other issues. Retirements matter because they can shuffle the finishing order and increase the odds that midfield teams score points.
parking the bus
"You're literally parking the bus without realising it. [1532.3s] It makes me sick. [1532.8s] Yeah, yeah, an accidental parking the bus."
“Parking the bus” means playing super defensively. Instead of trying to win with bold moves, you focus on stopping other people from getting past you.
“Parking the bus” is a sports phrase used here to describe an ultra-defensive strategy—prioritizing not losing over taking risks. In racing talk, it’s a metaphor for choosing a conservative approach that blocks others rather than aggressively challenging.
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