Our 2026 Japanese GP predictions
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This is a Progressive feature where you pick the price you want to pay for insurance. Then it shows you insurance options that might match that target.
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Insurance rules are different in each state. So the options you see (price and coverage) can change based on your location.
Concept
race week
“Race week” refers to the full event schedule leading up to a Grand Prix, including practice sessions, qualifying, and the race itself. Teams use this time to fine-tune setup and strategy based on track conditions.
Concept
cancelled races in April
If races get cancelled, there are fewer chances for drivers to earn points. It can also throw off the usual schedule teams plan around.
Concept
team principal
The team principal is basically the team’s top boss in Formula 1. They help decide how the team is run and how different parts of the organization work together.
Concept
moving his role
“Moving his role” suggests a leadership or technical figure is changing responsibilities rather than fully leaving the team. In F1, that can preserve continuity in car development while adjusting who has day-to-day control.
Company
Aston Martin
Aston Martin is one of the racing teams in Formula One. The team principal is basically the top manager who helps run the team and make big decisions.
Company
Adrian Newey
Adrian Newey is a legendary engineer in Formula One. The point here is that he’s great at designing the car, not necessarily being the main spokesperson or manager.
Term
engine isn't losing power halfway down the straight
They’re talking about the engine staying strong for the whole lap. If it “falls off” halfway down a straight, the car feels weaker and you can’t drive as confidently or quickly.
Term
lift and coast
“Lift and coast” means you take your foot off the gas and let the car slow down on its own. Drivers do it when the car isn’t behaving perfectly or to save something.
Concept
new liveries
A livery is basically the car’s design—its paint and sponsor logos. Teams change it for new seasons, sponsors, or special events.
Brand
Mercedes
Mercedes is a major Formula 1 team. They sometimes change the car’s paint scheme (livery) for certain races, and the hosts are talking about a new one they just saw.
Part
front wing
The front wing is the big wing on the front of the race car. It helps the car stick to the track, and it’s also a prominent part you can see in the car’s design.
Brand
Haas
Haas is an F1 racing team. They’re talking about a special Haas paint design and saying they really like it.
Brand
Red Bull
Red Bull is a Formula 1 racing team. In this segment, they’re saying Red Bull will likely be faster in Japan because they’ve brought upgrades and should perform better than early races.
Concept
big flop
A “big flop” is basically a bold prediction that someone won’t do as well as people expect. In this episode, they even say it’s based on vibes, not hard data.
Term
close midfield pack
A “close midfield pack” describes a tight cluster of cars and drivers competing for similar positions, often separated by small gaps in pace. In that situation, strategy, tire management, and avoiding mistakes can swing results quickly.
Term
vibes
“Vibes” here means the prediction is based on intuition and gut feeling rather than detailed performance analysis. The hosts explicitly frame their “big flop” calls as not strictly data-driven.
Term
pole position
Pole position means you qualify fastest and start the race from the very front. It usually helps a driver because they can get clean air and avoid getting stuck behind other cars.
Term
qualifying
Qualifying is when drivers race against the clock to set the starting positions for the main race. If a team is “strong in qualifying,” it usually means their cars can put down very fast laps.
Concept
top three for the race
The “top three” means the first, second, and third place finishers. Getting on the podium is a big deal in Formula 1 because it usually means you scored a lot of points.
Concept
lock in
“Lock in” means they’re deciding and sticking with their pick. It’s like saying, “I’m choosing this and not changing it.”
Concept
1-2
A “1-2” means the same team takes the top two spots in the race. It’s a strong result because it suggests both cars were competitive.
Concept
points
“Points” refers to the scoring system used in F1, where higher finishing positions earn more championship points. In prediction games, choosing a likely P2/P3 is often about maximizing points rather than chasing the riskiest outcome.
Concept
podium
The “podium” is the top three finishers in the race. If you predict someone makes the podium, you’re predicting they finish in the top three.
Company
Williams
Williams is a Formula 1 racing team. The team principal is basically the team’s top boss who helps run the whole operation and make big decisions.
Brand
Ferrari
Ferrari is a famous Formula 1 team. “One-two” means two Ferrari cars finish 1st and 2nd.
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Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the P1 Podcast with Matt and Tommy.
We are here. It's race week again until we have a big old school holiday.
Of course, we have two cancelled races in April,
which means we have the whole of April off to mull in our thoughts
and wonder what is going to happen for the rest of this Formula One season.
But thankfully, we have a race weekend to enjoy.
It's Japan, Suzuka, legendary Tommy.
You're on holiday.
You're having a good time.
I am. Yeah, the internet's holding up.
I can see you moving.
I tried the internet in this Airbnb we've got.
And when I checked last night, I did a speed test and it said 0.02 megabytes.
So I'm now... That's not going to do it.
No, exactly. I was talking to Elia as a JPEG,
but now I've gone and tethered, it seems to be.
I can see you moving at least, so it's a good time.
This is good progress. We're doing something.
We're having a conversation. That's all that matters.
Now, we need to get into some news before we get into our predictions,
so which I know a lot of you quite like is a little bit of a roundup
of what's been going on after the last race week,
because it's been a few days.
Now, the biggest bombshell has to be Jonathan Wheatley,
the team principal of Audi, leaving after two races due to personal reasons,
the team has said.
However, he is also heavily rumoured to be joining Aston Martin,
because essentially, Adrian Newey is not stepping down as such,
but just moving his role.
We never thought he was going to be a full-time team principal anyway.
We also did not think he was going to be taken out of that position after two races,
but clearly the whole problems that are going on at Aston Martin
mean that they need his thinking power elsewhere.
And that opens up a slot for Jonathan Wheatley to essentially go there.
And it's not confirmed, it's not happening right now,
but it's insanely heavily rumoured.
And Jonathan Wheatley could well be joining Aston Martin as team principal after...
We don't know how long, but that is such a crazy story
after everything we've heard about him believing in the Audi journey
and this, that and the other.
100%.
I mean, we were at the Audi launch, weren't we?
We got to speak to him.
And within two races, the confirmed news is nothing about Adrian Newey yet,
but Jonathan Wheatley has been confirmed as leaving Audi,
which they're not going to get rid of him unless he's going elsewhere,
are they?
Because he's been a fantastic team principal.
And clearly Aston Martin believed that, and I think rightly so,
that having a proper front and center team principal is the best way to go.
Adrian Newey is an unbelievable character in Formula One,
but for me, he's never a team principal.
His genius is sitting there with a notepad on the grid
and sketching the other cars and writing everything down
and then going back to his drawing board and creating incredible things in Formula One.
He's not the front and center where he gets all the heat having to do media sessions
and particularly just think of the stress that he's going to be going through as well now
with everything that's going on at Aston Martin,
getting bombarded with questions.
What's gone wrong?
What's gone wrong?
I've never seen Adrian Newey look so stressed and everything that's going on.
So I'm not surprised if that, you know, him taking a step back.
So we'll have to wait and see as to when this announcement,
if it ever comes for Jonathan Wheatley to Aston Martin happens,
but that is what is expected.
And yeah, I mean, look, Jonathan maybe wanted an Aston Martin role,
but it wasn't up for grabs.
And now it has come up for grabs due to the problems at the team.
And he's taken it with both hands.
But either way, there's some very expensive contract negotiations
and contract ending clauses and things like that, I'm sure.
Another thing to talk about, which I'm sure,
Tommy, you would love to talk about but also hate to talk about
is the fact that Max Verstappen finally won again at the Nürburgring,
but then got disqualified.
So if you have been living under a rock,
Verstappen was racing last weekend in the four hours of Nürburgring
and essentially he won.
He got pulled by two seconds.
He won by over a minute with his other two teammates.
And essentially, everything looked fine and dandy.
You know, he won by a mile of woohoo
and then got disqualified because his team used an extra set of tires
than they should have, which feels like a slight rookie error
for a team that is hosting the four-time Formula One World Champion.
But there's part of me that sits there and goes, does Max really care?
I'm sat there and thinking, he's won the race.
He's shown that he's got it.
He's been disqualified for a very small infringement
of using an extra set of tires over the course of the entire weekend.
And it's not like he's probably particularly bothered by the actual result.
I don't know.
For me, that's the way I sit on it.
Yeah, definitely.
I think had it been the 24 hours of Nürburgring,
which is obviously the big race that he's kind of working towards with this
and that's the kind of something in the endurance racing triple crown
that he really wants to win, then it kind of hurts him more.
And it's not to disrespect those races,
but realistically, Max is there to enjoy himself.
Yes, he of course wants to win.
He's a winner.
But for him to be able to kind of go out, have some fun,
his engine isn't losing power halfway down the straight
and he's not having to lift and coast into corners
and going around the Nürburgring,
probably having a wonderful time and enjoying it a lot more than Formula One,
which I think he's probably quite vocally said
while he was there, unsurprisingly, been bombarded with questions
about the new regs and things again.
But it kind of, I think it's scratching an itch
that he's not getting in Formula One right now.
Exactly.
And to name his two teammates, Danny Junkadella,
I don't know if that's exactly how I pronounce it,
and Jules Gunon also don't know if that's how I pronounce it,
but those are the two teammates that he had in the team.
Congratulations to them for two hours and then they got disqualified.
That was the team.
I can't just have a nice thing this year.
This is my year of pain, isn't it?
Even Max Winter Race.
Oh, it's disqualified.
Great, this is what it's like.
Even you cannot celebrate a four-hour win around the Nürburgring these days.
It's a tough time to be Tom Bellingham this year.
And then another bit of news, which is Japan-related,
which is the new liveries that have started to roll out.
There may be a few more after we've recorded,
but as of, we've had V-Carb that looks absolutely sensational.
I really, really like it.
And then also, I don't know how Hass has improved a 10 out of 10 livery,
but they have.
It's, again, I absolutely love it.
It's like a Godzilla theme.
And look, I'm a big, big fan of both of those liveries.
Mercedes has literally just dropped within 30 minutes,
I think, of us recording.
And but that's more of just a front wing with their kind of-
The wolf thing on that they've been doing with their merchandise.
Which has been more of a hit and miss, I think,
the wolf merchandise.
But the Hass and V-Carb, all yes.
Agreed.
The V-Carb in particular is awesome.
The red reminds me, actually, of the old Toyota livery
with the red splat, paint splat kind of thing on the side.
Very cool.
Unusual why they've done it.
I don't know if they thought they had a Honda engine in the back.
But for whatever reason, they wanted to do something fun.
We've seen so many more relaxed rules about liveries now,
and it almost feels like you get one almost every race,
a special livery, or at least every month with these special designs.
The Hass one is also awesome.
I really like that.
The Merc.
Not for me.
I like some of the stuff that they've released with,
I think it's Y3, which normally do some really, really cool stuff.
But the Wolf, not a big fan of that kind of merch they released
and then had the on the front wing as well, didn't they?
But it's a good promo for their new thing.
It was quite fun to see Toto Wolf doing a very cool looking fashion
shoot on Instagram, which I thought was AI when I saw it, to be honest.
Now, let's get into predictions.
There's 8-4 to Tom Bellingham.
He is steaming clear at the moment.
However, I plan on bouncing back in my delirious state.
I feel as though, you know, perhaps logic will happen
because there's so much delusion and delirium that it turns out to be all correct.
And so, yeah, let's see how this one goes.
Let's get into a good surprise.
It is me to go first and I've thought about this for so, so long.
It makes perfect sense to me.
My good surprise is Red Bull dropping a team, dropping Red Bull straight into the mix
because they are bringing upgrades, ladies and gentlemen.
And also, I don't think they're as bad as what we've seen in the first two races.
Australia, I don't think we quite saw what was possible.
Max, of course, went from last to P6.
And generally, it's not been a Red Bull starts, for example.
If they just get off the line on Sunday, I'm claiming this point
because they've really struggled.
But I think that they'll have a better weekend in Japan.
Max is phenomenal around Suzuka.
Let's not forget.
And I'm hoping Hajah doesn't let me down because I've gone for a team.
Very interesting because I was having an houring about going for a Red Bull,
myself or even Max because, yeah, I echo your thoughts and maybe we didn't see,
I think China was just a complete disaster for them.
Whereas, of course, Hajah in Australia did a good job to BP3.
We didn't get to see what Max could do in normal qualifying.
So they should be better in theory, I hope, of course, as a Max fan because it's not been fun.
So far, my good surprise, I've gone for also a team.
I've gone for McLaren and it's not even the Matt Gallagher tactic of,
well, if they start the race, they are a good surprise.
I genuinely think McLaren will do a lot better.
They are learning.
They're going to be learning more from that Mercedes power unit and how to unlock it each race.
They're learning how to start the car.
If they can start the car, they're on for a winner.
Particularly, I think Lando, his sprint was very, very strong when we did actually see them
the race put in a great performance.
So, yeah, I think McLaren could surprise us this weekend.
So both gone for teams.
And I'm in full agreement as we will continue through these predictions.
That I do believe that McLaren should be closer and providing they can start the car
and make everything work, then I feel as though they'll at least be able to challenge Ferrari
if not be ahead of them.
Let's go to a big flop.
Tommy, who have you gone for?
Big flop I have gone for, Pierre Gansley.
They had a fantastic result last time out.
Alpine looked much more competitive.
How much of that was the Mercedes grunt that they had down that enormous straight in China?
And I'll be honest with this one, I really struggled with who I was going to go for a big flop.
And I had to pick someone as I went for Gansley.
I nearly picked Antonelli, but I was like, I picked Russell last time, so I didn't go for Antonelli.
So, yeah, I've gone for Pierre Gansley, of course, had a great result last time out.
And yeah, we'll see how he does in that close midfield pack.
Okay, very interesting.
Gansley, good luck to you.
It's funny, I think we've had almost the exact same thoughts in the first two,
because my big flop is Kimi Antonelli.
I'm not even kidding.
That is something that I was just convinced looking at Suzuki that it could well breathe
a little Kimi Antonelli mistake.
That's what I'm thinking.
It might well not come true.
Kimi may well end up winning the race.
There's no disrespect, as we always know with these big flops.
It's purely based on vibes.
Yeah, I think, of course, Antonelli, race winner these days, there's finishes P2.
I'm trying to call it.
30 seconds behind George Russell could be a big flop.
But look, I'm trying to find as many loopholes as possible on four points down,
so just let me be.
But yeah, for me, Kimi Antonelli is my big flop.
Pole position.
Who is winning on the Saturday?
So I am locking in, unsurprisingly, George Russell.
I'm going to take a George Russell pole position,
because I think that Mr. Saturday will perform.
Of course, he did not get pole position last time out,
but that was because of plagued with a lot of issues.
I think George will have the advantage and will continue to have the advantage on
on a Saturday throughout most of this season.
So look, it's free real estate at this point.
I have to go for George when I when I have the pick.
So there you go.
Oh, so I'd gone for George Russell, unsurprisingly.
I am now unsure whether I go for Antonelli or someone else.
I am going to go for Kimi Antonelli.
Could change it to Antonelli.
It makes sense, doesn't it?
Let's just remember he's in a Mercedes.
Because he's in a Mercedes.
Mercedes, I do I do think Mercedes are a lot stronger in qualifying.
As a kind of insane not to go for them for qualifying,
particularly with how much, you know, we've seen with their advantage.
And in the race, are they holding something back?
I don't know.
We'll never know.
Maybe there's a lot of rumors, isn't there about whether they've just got their engine
turned down and they'll let Ferrari lead for a little bit and then go see you later.
We're off now.
But yeah, I'll go for Antonelli for pole position.
OK, let's get into the top three for the race, starting with P3, Tom Bellingham.
OK, so P3, I have gone for Lando Norris going for a McLaren on the podium.
I've gone for good surprise.
And yeah, I'm also putting a McLaren on the podium,
which maybe is surprising in itself based on how it's only been Ferraris and Merckx
all year so far.
So yeah, going for Lando P3.
P3, yeah, I was going to go for Lando Norris.
So I now have to change mine.
I am going to back Charles Leclerc.
I was going to put Oscar Piestri, but instead I'm like, no, surely I can still believe in Ferrari
being second fastest three races into the season after being the second fastest car.
Hopefully, fingers crossed, you know, Ferrari can continue to bring good form.
And there is a good chance that the Ferrari team, either Charles or Lewis, will be on the podium.
So I'm going to back my boy and I'm going to put him third,
despite the fact I will regret this when Oscar Piestri finishes in third place.
Undoubtedly.
Now let's go to P2, yeah.
Right, I am going to lock in.
Is it going to be a Mercedes 1-2?
This is the danger here.
This is big danger.
Huge danger.
This is the danger prediction because then games can be played.
My second place.
Do I lock in the fact that Lanternally is going to flop?
Very interesting.
Oh, this is tough.
This is really, really tough now.
I've made it more tough than I needed it to be.
I am going to lock in in P2.
Lando Norris.
Lando Norris is getting second position because I was going to put him third
and second doesn't feel that much higher despite the fact they're going up against a rocket ship.
So second place, Lando Norris.
P2, I'm going to go for Kimmy Antonelli.
So I'm going to take it.
You have gone for Lando.
Yeah, both put Lando on the podium is maybe quite a surprise.
But yeah, I'll go for Antonelli because I want points.
Do you want points?
You think Kimmy P2 is absolutely locked in?
Right.
Okay, that is...
You're regretting it now, aren't you?
What have I done?
That's how little my brain is working right now.
I was celebrating internally that I'm going to go first for P1, but I'm not.
That's you.
So good.
Right.
I'm throwing the championship.
Now, I reckon I get two points just for concussion.
P1, Tommy, who have you gone for?
I'm playing my concussion.
I have an asterisk next to your name, like concussed.
When we do our prediction graphic on Instagram, it would be like,
Matt has gone for Lando Norris P2, asterisk concussed.
It's like when you try and set a lap time at a cart track, but it's in the wet.
Yeah, yeah.
But instead it's me.
Concussed.
Bracket C.
So P1, no surprise.
I've gone for George Russell.
I've locked it in.
He was very, very obviously had amazing start to the year.
He was dominant in the sprint.
Not as good in China.
We thought he was going to catch Antonelli.
And yeah, I think Russell will be very, very strong around here.
Of course, no surprise.
Okay.
This really is a very interesting prediction now because
I'm so utterly convinced Antonelli is not going to win the Japanese Grand Prix.
Like me last time, I did that, but then he did.
See, I did that with, I was so convinced and I was like, oh, just max whatever.
And then Antonelli won.
It's true, but I don't think Antonelli is going to win.
In P1, I am locking in Lewis Hamilton.
Hamilton's winning the Japanese Grand Prix.
Well done to Lewis and well done to my points tally when I score none when he finishes fifth.
But that is, that's what I'm, that's what I'm going to go for.
So there you go.
Lewis Hamilton, P1, let's live the dream.
I can't believe that's my top three.
I've literally not got a Mercedes driver in my top three.
Oh, wow.
What is wrong with me?
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and actually feel like yourself again.
Whether it's your first time in therapy or your 50th,
grow makes it easier to find a therapist who fits you,
not the other way around.
You can search by what matters, like insurance, specialty,
identity, or availability, and get started in as little as two days.
There are no subscriptions, no long-term commitments.
You just pay per session.
Grow helps you find therapy on your time.
Whatever challenges you're facing,
growth therapy is here to help.
Grow accepts over 100 insurance plans,
including Medicaid in some states.
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All right, good.
Tommy, have you loaded up the P-WAT machine?
Because we're heading to P-WAT.
Okay, the P-WAT machine.
Let's see if Portuguese data, mobile data,
can manage to randomly number generate
without me disappearing off this call.
Here we go.
We have...
Maybe.
Okay, you ready?
That's a good one.
P-20 could be a retirement.
P-20.
So who's going first?
It's you first.
Or it could be a retirement.
It could be a retirement.
Very much could be.
Oh, okay.
Franco Colopinto.
I'm going to go for a Fernando Alonso.
Rage quit.
That's an added caveat.
Fair enough.
Yeah, you've gone for a very safe bet.
That is...
Oh, God.
I am having an absolute disaster.
I hate all of my predictions.
And I want to rerecord this entire podcast.
But it's fine.
It'll be funny to look back on when I'm 15 points behind
going into the next race in over a month's time,
where I can just stir on it for the rest of April.
Good times.
Right, let's go to one crazy prediction, Tommy.
What have you got for you?
My crazy prediction is Ferrari do not lead on the first lap.
They're three from three so far, of course.
So yeah, that's what I'm going for.
God, yeah, they actually are.
That is a disgusting loophole.
That is one of the most disgusting loopholes
I've ever heard in my entire life.
Right, my one crazy prediction.
This might be the most insane thing I'll ever say all year.
The Mercedes pole margin is less than a quarter of a second
to the next team.
So the largest so far is 3.5 tenths to Hamilton.
And that was with George Russell having no battery and tires
and obviously qualifying second.
I'm fully convinced that in China,
he would have been on pole by a bigger margin.
So there you go.
That is my crazy prediction.
Let's see if it comes true.
Fingers crossed.
I remember last time out in Japan in 2025,
we had a very, very close qualifying
between Max and the two McLarens.
Let's hope we get something of a similar timing interval.
Okay, Patreon prediction.
I am going to go first with this one
and hopefully a Verstappen can get me a W
because I've gone for Josh Verstappen's Patreon prediction.
If you're not a P1 Patreon member, please come and join.
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And this is part of it.
And yeah, Josh Verstappen has gone for McLaren on the podium.
So we've gone for that because I, even though I,
to be fair, I have got Lando P2 there.
So McLaren on the podium, Patreon prediction, locked in.
Oh, and yeah, we've both gone for McLaren on the podium,
both put Norris on the podium.
So interesting, I actually nearly went for that one as well.
But I have gone for Hazar.
And hopefully I'll be saying Hazar afterwards.
Hazar.
I'm correct.
Hazar, I thought you just let me in.
All 22 cars will start the race.
So.
What in the loophole s**tting are you?
We're going loopholes crazy right now.
Yeah, we're fair enough.
Yeah, I mean, look, we're six DNSs from two races,
which is insane.
Yeah.
When was the last time?
I'm talking for Anaston Martin.
Come on.
Yeah, can they start the car?
Jonathan Wheatley can cook something up.
If he's there.
If he's there, we don't know.
Okay.
All right.
There's no sort of Michael Mastien going on right now from you at all.
You're four points clear and you're like, let's make it 10.
But I appreciate it.
Competitive.
Tommy wants a big old lead and then he can start.
If I do, if I do outscore you by like eight points or something,
Grace will be doing all of the predictions next time out.
Perfect.
Sounds great.
Evening up.
Let's let's do that for the rest of the season.
Maybe I'll have a chance.
All right, let's go to family top three.
The only thing where the Gallagher's are currently winning
because we are three two ahead.
Let me see if my dad, I've dropped my phone.
Let me see if my dad is ready to talk.
Um, because maybe he will speak some sense into some predictions.
All right.
Come on, dad.
Please don't also be concussed.
Come on.
You can do it.
He's locking him his head.
He's wanting.
Hello.
How are you?
Hi, dad.
Not great.
How are you?
I'm not too bad.
Thank you.
Good.
Perfect.
So I've laid down a lot of sort of concussed predictions.
So I'm hoping you will be able to speak some sense on behalf of.
I've got to keep up with mum, am I so?
Yeah.
She scored some good points.
So we need you to lock in.
So in third place for the Japanese Grand Prix is.
Charles Leclerc.
All right.
Same as me.
Love the little sigh afterwards.
That felt good.
You felt confident with that one.
In second place.
Louis Hamilton.
Wow.
It's Ferrari double podium.
I also went for that even though I hate my predictions.
And in first place.
George Russell.
Okay.
All right.
Where does Kimmy Antonelli feature?
He's fourth.
Oh, he's fourth.
Okay.
Okay.
That will give me a big flop because I flopped him this week.
All right.
Thank you so much, Dad.
Appreciate you getting involved.
Lots of love.
You have a great time.
Thanks, Dad.
Bye.
Love you.
Okay.
That was quick.
That was quick fire.
And we've gone for double Ferrari and then a George Russell win.
All right.
I don't mind it.
It's not bad.
Right.
I am going to get my dad.
I've just seen him walk past the window actually because I'm on holiday with them.
And he's in a William shirt.
Is he in his swimming trunks?
No, he's in a William.
He's suitable for the podcast.
He's suitable for the podcast.
Of course, he's in a William's top.
He absolutely loves it.
I know.
I bought him some back from the little pop-up we did.
There's some Williams merch.
But I'm going to go get him.
Get him to come sit next to you.
Come on.
Here we go.
Two seconds.
Matt, how are you?
I'm not going to be able to hear you.
Hello.
We have the brand new Williams team principle on the line.
We do.
Hi, Matt.
How are you?
I hope you've got some nice cool Williams gear on.
Let's have a look.
No, Michael Schumacher gear.
I'm afraid until I die.
How was your holiday?
Very nice.
Thanks, Matt.
Very nice.
Yes, wonderful.
You've had enough time to deliberate on your top three.
So let's get into it.
Okay.
It's three, two to the Gallagher's.
The boring Bellingham's are behind.
So how boring are you going to be this week, Dean?
Who have you gone for in P3?
I think it's bold Bellingham's rather than mundane Matt's predictions.
So I've been thinking about that one.
Okay.
The bold prediction.
So third, I'm going to go for Antonelli.
Antonelli in P3.
Okay.
In second place, please.
Much to your delight.
I will go Leclerc second.
Wow.
Leclerc beats Antonelli.
I don't mind it.
And in first position.
Lewis Hamilton.
Oh my God.
I've also gone for a Hamilton win.
That's so funny.
And I hate my predictions.
So a Ferrari one, two.
I thought I've got to make you smile at some point.
So, you know, we'll go for it.
Was Alex Albon just fourth, sadly?
Is that, did they just miss out on the podium?
I was going to say wearing wonderful Williams gear,
but I'm afraid it's sort of worrying Williams gear at the moment.
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
There's lots of alliteration going on here.
I love it.
I have to hope that they improve.
But good to see you again, Matt.
Thank you so much, Dean.
Nice to see you too.
Have a great holiday.
Yeah, and you.
Well, not and you.
You're not on holiday, but you know what I mean?
Have a nice time.
Cheers, Matt.
Okay, Grace is at the door.
I love how your dad did that and you,
like when you're like a flight,
the ticket counter and you go,
they have a nice flight and you say, and you.
Yeah, no, classic.
The social media,
real big grace.
Grace is here.
I'm going to get her to do her top three.
This doesn't count.
Just for banter.
Let's hear it.
It counts towards my tally.
Yeah, okay.
Right.
Okay, Grace.
Who's going to finish third?
Who's going to finish third in Japan?
Max Verstappen.
Okay, Max Verstappen.
Who's finishing second?
P.A. gets me.
I wonder who's going to win.
Who's winning the Japanese Grand Prix?
You're a sabbaton.
Oh, my word.
Three people have gone for Hamilton.
I think Hamilton's going to win.
If Hamilton doesn't win now,
after three people have predicted him.
Thank you, Grace.
That would be mental.
Wow.
Thank you so much, Grace.
Hamilton is, wow.
How has Hamilton come out on top?
I don't think Hamilton has been predicted first,
maybe for about two years,
and now it's three people have gone for him.
He's got his podium, it's now right.
He's getting the win now.
I mean, yeah, he's not starting the race,
is he, after this?
Let's be truly honest with our predictions
and how they usually go.
I was 99% convinced
we were getting Colopinto first there.
Yeah, I thought so as well.
And she said, Lewis Hamilton.
She's adding to her roster of drivers, she knows.
It's impressive.
It's impressive to see.
Right, that is it.
Predictions done and dusted.
Thank you for tuning into a very chaotic episode.
I hope you've enjoyed.
Tommy's, of course, on holiday.
His dad has wished me a good holiday.
So now I now need to go book one.
You just get straight on a plane again.
That is it, Tommy, what are your final thoughts?
My final thoughts are just,
I'm sure every single person on this podcast
is saying they're very glad you're okay.
So I will echo what everyone's probably thinking
and glad you're doing all right,
even if you've not put Mercedes on the podium.
So I think maybe just get a concussion test.
The funniest thing is,
I guarantee there has been requests for that,
even with me not doing that
over the last three years of doing P1.
So it won't be the first or last time
people are asking for my head to be tested.
So there you go.
But thank you, Tommy.
I appreciate that.
And we will see you this weekend.
You'll be back home, won't you, for the proper live streams
and things like that.
So thank God, because you're literally on just turtle internet.
And that is it.
We will see you very soon.
Thank you, everybody.
Lots of love.
Take care.
Bye.
About this episode
Suzuka race week kicks off with Matt and Tommy running through the latest F1 headlines and then going deep on their 2026 Japanese GP predictions. They discuss Jonathan Wheatley leaving Audi after two races, with heavy Aston Martin rumors tied to Adrian Newey’s shifting role. They also react to Max Verstappen’s Nürburgring win that ended in disqualification, plus fresh Japan liveries (V-Carb, Haas, and a mixed take on Mercedes/Wolf). Predictions are chaotic: surprise picks for McLaren, big flops on Pierre Gasly or Kimi Antonelli, and wildly optimistic top-three calls including George Russell pole and even Lewis Hamilton winning.
Original notes
We're back, with one final set of predictions before the enforced month-long break. And Tommy's joining us from Portugal for loopholes deluxe, while Matt's recent concussion has scrambled his own choices!
You can get 20% off an annual membership to our Patreon! You'll get access to every P1 episode ad-free, extended versions of every 2026 race review, early access to tickets & merch, and access to our Discord server where you can chat with us and other F1 fans! Click here to sign up now: http://patreon.com/mattp1tommy
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