Our 2026 Japanese GP predictions
About this episode
Suzuka race week kicks off with Matt and Tommy running through the latest F1 headlines and then going deep on their 2026 Japanese GP predictions. They discuss Jonathan Wheatley leaving Audi after two races, with heavy Aston Martin rumors tied to Adrian Newey’s shifting role. They also react to Max Verstappen’s Nürburgring win that ended in disqualification, plus fresh Japan liveries (V-Carb, Haas, and a mixed take on Mercedes/Wolf). Predictions are chaotic: surprise picks for McLaren, big flops on Pierre Gasly or Kimi Antonelli, and wildly optimistic top-three calls including George Russell pole and even Lewis Hamilton winning.
We're back, with one final set of predictions before the enforced month-long break. And Tommy's joining us from Portugal for loopholes deluxe, while Matt's recent concussion has scrambled his own choices!
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Progressive Insurance
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Progressive Insurance is a major U.S. auto insurer. In this ad, they’re promoting a tool that helps you estimate and compare car insurance options based on what you want to pay.
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price and coverage match limited by state law
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Insurance rules are different in each state. So the options you see (price and coverage) can change based on your location.
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race week
"We are here. It's race week again until we have a big old school holiday. Of course, we have two cancelled races in April..."
“Race week” refers to the full event schedule leading up to a Grand Prix, including practice sessions, qualifying, and the race itself. Teams use this time to fine-tune setup and strategy based on track conditions.
cancelled races in April
"Of course, we have two cancelled races in April, which means we have the whole of April off to mull in our thoughts..."
If races get cancelled, there are fewer chances for drivers to earn points. It can also throw off the usual schedule teams plan around.
When races are cancelled, it changes the season’s rhythm and can affect championship momentum. Fewer race weekends also mean less opportunity to score points and test upgrades under race conditions.
team principal
"Now, the biggest bombshell has to be Jonathan Wheatley, the team principal of Audi, leaving after two races due to personal reasons, the team has said."
The team principal is basically the team’s top boss in Formula 1. They help decide how the team is run and how different parts of the organization work together.
A team principal is the top leadership role responsible for overall team direction in Formula 1, including strategy, management, and coordination between technical and operational groups. Changes at this level can signal broader organizational shifts beyond just one department.
moving his role
"However, he is also heavily rumoured to be joining Aston Martin, because essentially, Adrian Newey is not stepping down as such, but just moving his role."
“Moving his role” suggests a leadership or technical figure is changing responsibilities rather than fully leaving the team. In F1, that can preserve continuity in car development while adjusting who has day-to-day control.
Aston Martin
"And Jonathan Wheatley could well be joining Aston Martin as team principal after... We don't know how long, but that is such a crazy story"
Aston Martin is one of the racing teams in Formula One. The team principal is basically the top manager who helps run the team and make big decisions.
Aston Martin is a Formula One constructor (team) that competes in the FIA Formula One World Championship. In F1, the team principal is a key leadership role that oversees day-to-day operations and long-term direction.
Adrian Newey
"Adrian Newey is an unbelievable character in Formula One, but for me, he's never a team principal."
Adrian Newey is a legendary engineer in Formula One. The point here is that he’s great at designing the car, not necessarily being the main spokesperson or manager.
Adrian Newey is one of Formula One’s most famous technical minds, known for designing competitive cars. The hosts contrast his role as a designer/engineer with the team principal role, emphasizing that his “genius” is technical work rather than front-and-center leadership.
engine isn't losing power halfway down the straight
"his engine isn't losing power halfway down the straight and he's not having to lift and coast into corners and going around the Nürburgring"
They’re talking about the engine staying strong for the whole lap. If it “falls off” halfway down a straight, the car feels weaker and you can’t drive as confidently or quickly.
This describes a common endurance/track concern: power delivery staying consistent under load. If an engine loses power mid-straight, it can be due to overheating, fuel/air issues, or drivetrain problems—hurting lap times and confidence.
lift and coast
"and he's not having to lift and coast into corners and going around the Nürburgring, probably having a wonderful time"
“Lift and coast” means you take your foot off the gas and let the car slow down on its own. Drivers do it when the car isn’t behaving perfectly or to save something.
“Lift and coast” means easing off the throttle and letting the car roll without accelerating, usually to manage traction, reduce stress, or cope with reduced power. In racing, it often costs time but can be necessary if the car isn’t performing as expected.
new liveries
"And then another bit of news, which is Japan-related, [538.3s] which is the new liveries that have started to roll out."
A livery is basically the car’s design—its paint and sponsor logos. Teams change it for new seasons, sponsors, or special events.
A livery is the car’s paint scheme and branding—colors, logos, sponsor placement, and sometimes special graphics for a season or event. Teams often refresh liveries to match new sponsorships, technical partnerships, or marketing themes.
Mercedes
"Mercedes has literally just dropped within 30 minutes, [571.4s] I think, of us recording. [572.7s] And but that's more of just a front wing with their kind of-"
Mercedes is a major Formula 1 team. They sometimes change the car’s paint scheme (livery) for certain races, and the hosts are talking about a new one they just saw.
Mercedes is one of Formula 1’s top teams, and they often release special livery designs for specific races. In this segment, the hosts are reacting to a newly dropped Mercedes livery and how it’s styled.
front wing
"And but that's more of just a front wing with their kind of- [575.8s] The wolf thing on that they've been doing with their merchandise."
The front wing is the big wing on the front of the race car. It helps the car stick to the track, and it’s also a prominent part you can see in the car’s design.
The front wing is an aerodynamic device mounted at the front of an F1 car that helps manage airflow and generates downforce. Because it’s highly visible and aerodynamically important, teams often highlight it in special livery discussions.
Haas
"But the Hass and V-Carb, all yes. [586.3s] Agreed. [587.0s] The V-Carb in particular is awesome. [619.2s] The Hass one is also awesome."
Haas is an F1 racing team. They’re talking about a special Haas paint design and saying they really like it.
Haas is an F1 team mentioned in connection with a special livery. The hosts specifically call out the Haas livery as “awesome,” indicating it’s one of the standout designs in the discussion.
Red Bull
"My good surprise is Red Bull dropping a team, dropping Red Bull straight into the mix because they are bringing upgrades, ladies and gentlemen... But I think that they'll have a better weekend in Japan."
Red Bull is a Formula 1 racing team. In this segment, they’re saying Red Bull will likely be faster in Japan because they’ve brought upgrades and should perform better than early races.
Red Bull Racing is one of Formula 1’s top teams, known for frequent performance upgrades and strong race-day execution. In prediction talk, “Red Bull” usually refers to their car’s pace and how well they can improve across a weekend.
big flop
"Let's go to a big flop. Tommy, who have you gone for? Big flop I have gone for, Pierre Gansley. ... There's no disrespect, as we always know with these big flops. It's purely based on vibes."
A “big flop” is basically a bold prediction that someone won’t do as well as people expect. In this episode, they even say it’s based on vibes, not hard data.
“Big flop” is a prediction game where a host picks a driver to underperform relative to expectations. It’s not a technical term in racing; it’s a show format for making a contrarian call.
close midfield pack
"We'll see how he does in that close midfield pack. Okay, very interesting."
A “close midfield pack” describes a tight cluster of cars and drivers competing for similar positions, often separated by small gaps in pace. In that situation, strategy, tire management, and avoiding mistakes can swing results quickly.
vibes
"There's no disrespect, as we always know with these big flops. It's purely based on vibes."
“Vibes” here means the prediction is based on intuition and gut feeling rather than detailed performance analysis. The hosts explicitly frame their “big flop” calls as not strictly data-driven.
pole position
"[930.0s] But yeah, for me, Kimi Antonelli is my big flop. [935.2s] Pole position. [937.2s] Who is winning on the Saturday?"
Pole position means you qualify fastest and start the race from the very front. It usually helps a driver because they can get clean air and avoid getting stuck behind other cars.
Pole position is the fastest qualifying lap, which places a driver at the front of the starting grid for the race. In F1, starting from pole often gives a big advantage because you can control the pace and avoid traffic right away.
qualifying
"[986.8s] Mercedes, I do I do think Mercedes are a lot stronger in qualifying. [991.1s] As a kind of insane not to go for them for qualifying,"
Qualifying is when drivers race against the clock to set the starting positions for the main race. If a team is “strong in qualifying,” it usually means their cars can put down very fast laps.
Qualifying is the session where drivers set their fastest lap to determine the starting order for the race. The hosts specifically mention Mercedes being stronger in qualifying, implying the car’s one-lap performance and tire/setup execution are key to their predictions.
top three for the race
"[1017.0s] OK, let's get into the top three for the race, starting with P3, Tom Bellingham. [1024.9s] OK, so P3, I have gone for Lando Norris going for a McLaren on the podium. [1031.6s] I've gone for good surprise."
The “top three” means the first, second, and third place finishers. Getting on the podium is a big deal in Formula 1 because it usually means you scored a lot of points.
“Top three” refers to the podium positions (P1, P2, P3) in an F1 race. In F1, podium finishes are especially valuable because they award the most points and often reflect the best-performing strategy and car setup of the day.
lock in
"Right, I am going to lock in. Is it going to be a Mercedes 1-2?"
“Lock in” means they’re deciding and sticking with their pick. It’s like saying, “I’m choosing this and not changing it.”
“Lock in” is prediction-game slang meaning the speaker is committing to a pick as their final answer. It signals confidence in that outcome for the race finishing order.
1-2
"Is it going to be a Mercedes 1-2? This is the danger here."
A “1-2” means the same team takes the top two spots in the race. It’s a strong result because it suggests both cars were competitive.
In racing, a “1-2” is shorthand for a team finishing first and second. It’s a big deal because it shows both cars were fast enough to dominate, not just one lucky result.
points
"But yeah, I'll go for Antonelli because I want points. Do you want points? You think Kimmy P2 is absolutely locked in?"
“Points” refers to the scoring system used in F1, where higher finishing positions earn more championship points. In prediction games, choosing a likely P2/P3 is often about maximizing points rather than chasing the riskiest outcome.
podium
"Yeah, both put Lando on the podium is maybe quite a surprise. But yeah, I'll go for Antonelli because I want points."
The “podium” is the top three finishers in the race. If you predict someone makes the podium, you’re predicting they finish in the top three.
A “podium” finish in Formula 1 is top three: first, second, or third. Predicting multiple drivers on the podium is a way to hedge bets because podium points are valuable.
Williams
"We have the brand new Williams team principle on the line. Hi, Matt. How are you?"
Williams is a Formula 1 racing team. The team principal is basically the team’s top boss who helps run the whole operation and make big decisions.
Williams is a historic Formula 1 team based in the UK. In F1, the team principal is the senior leader responsible for overall direction, strategy, and operations.
Ferrari
"So a Ferrari one, two. I thought I've got to make you smile at some point."
Ferrari is a famous Formula 1 team. “One-two” means two Ferrari cars finish 1st and 2nd.
Ferrari is one of Formula 1’s historic teams and a frequent title contender. A “Ferrari one-two” means Ferrari drivers are predicted to finish first and second.
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