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Our 2026 Japanese GP predictions

Our 2026 Japanese GP predictions

P1 with Matt and Tommy Mar 25, 2026 30 min
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About this episode

Suzuka race week kicks off with Matt and Tommy running through the latest F1 headlines and then going deep on their 2026 Japanese GP predictions. They discuss Jonathan Wheatley leaving Audi after two races, with heavy Aston Martin rumors tied to Adrian Newey’s shifting role. They also react to Max Verstappen’s Nürburgring win that ended in disqualification, plus fresh Japan liveries (V-Carb, Haas, and a mixed take on Mercedes/Wolf). Predictions are chaotic: surprise picks for McLaren, big flops on Pierre Gasly or Kimi Antonelli, and wildly optimistic top-three calls including George Russell pole and even Lewis Hamilton winning.

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Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Company

Progressive Insurance

"This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game, shifting a little money here, a little there..."

Progressive is an insurance company that sells car insurance. This segment is an ad for a feature that helps you find insurance options that fit your budget.

Term

Name Your Price tool

"Well, with the Name Your Price tool from Progressive, you can be a better budgeter and potentially lower your insurance bill too. You tell Progressive what you want to pay for car insurance..."

This is a Progressive feature where you pick the price you want to pay for insurance. Then it shows you insurance options that might match that target.

Term

price and coverage match limited by state law

"Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, price and coverage match limited by state law, not available in all states. The hustle doesn't have to hurt."

Insurance rules are different in each state. So the options you see (price and coverage) can change based on your location.

Concept

race week

"We are here. It's race week again until we have a big old school holiday. Of course, we have two cancelled races in April..."

“Race week” refers to the full event schedule leading up to a Grand Prix, including practice sessions, qualifying, and the race itself. Teams use this time to fine-tune setup and strategy based on track conditions.

Concept

cancelled races in April

"Of course, we have two cancelled races in April, which means we have the whole of April off to mull in our thoughts..."

If races get cancelled, there are fewer chances for drivers to earn points. It can also throw off the usual schedule teams plan around.

Concept

team principal

"Now, the biggest bombshell has to be Jonathan Wheatley, the team principal of Audi, leaving after two races due to personal reasons, the team has said."

The team principal is basically the team’s top boss in Formula 1. They help decide how the team is run and how different parts of the organization work together.

Concept

moving his role

"However, he is also heavily rumoured to be joining Aston Martin, because essentially, Adrian Newey is not stepping down as such, but just moving his role."

“Moving his role” suggests a leadership or technical figure is changing responsibilities rather than fully leaving the team. In F1, that can preserve continuity in car development while adjusting who has day-to-day control.

Company

Aston Martin

"And Jonathan Wheatley could well be joining Aston Martin as team principal after... We don't know how long, but that is such a crazy story"

Aston Martin is one of the racing teams in Formula One. The team principal is basically the top manager who helps run the team and make big decisions.

Company

Adrian Newey

"Adrian Newey is an unbelievable character in Formula One, but for me, he's never a team principal."

Adrian Newey is a legendary engineer in Formula One. The point here is that he’s great at designing the car, not necessarily being the main spokesperson or manager.

Term

engine isn't losing power halfway down the straight

"his engine isn't losing power halfway down the straight and he's not having to lift and coast into corners and going around the Nürburgring"

They’re talking about the engine staying strong for the whole lap. If it “falls off” halfway down a straight, the car feels weaker and you can’t drive as confidently or quickly.

Term

lift and coast

"and he's not having to lift and coast into corners and going around the Nürburgring, probably having a wonderful time"

“Lift and coast” means you take your foot off the gas and let the car slow down on its own. Drivers do it when the car isn’t behaving perfectly or to save something.

Concept

new liveries

"And then another bit of news, which is Japan-related, [538.3s] which is the new liveries that have started to roll out."

A livery is basically the car’s design—its paint and sponsor logos. Teams change it for new seasons, sponsors, or special events.

Brand

Mercedes

"Mercedes has literally just dropped within 30 minutes, [571.4s] I think, of us recording. [572.7s] And but that's more of just a front wing with their kind of-"

Mercedes is a major Formula 1 team. They sometimes change the car’s paint scheme (livery) for certain races, and the hosts are talking about a new one they just saw.

Part

front wing

"And but that's more of just a front wing with their kind of- [575.8s] The wolf thing on that they've been doing with their merchandise."

The front wing is the big wing on the front of the race car. It helps the car stick to the track, and it’s also a prominent part you can see in the car’s design.

Brand

Haas

"But the Hass and V-Carb, all yes. [586.3s] Agreed. [587.0s] The V-Carb in particular is awesome. [619.2s] The Hass one is also awesome."

Haas is an F1 racing team. They’re talking about a special Haas paint design and saying they really like it.

Brand

Red Bull

"My good surprise is Red Bull dropping a team, dropping Red Bull straight into the mix because they are bringing upgrades, ladies and gentlemen... But I think that they'll have a better weekend in Japan."

Red Bull is a Formula 1 racing team. In this segment, they’re saying Red Bull will likely be faster in Japan because they’ve brought upgrades and should perform better than early races.

Concept

big flop

"Let's go to a big flop. Tommy, who have you gone for? Big flop I have gone for, Pierre Gansley. ... There's no disrespect, as we always know with these big flops. It's purely based on vibes."

A “big flop” is basically a bold prediction that someone won’t do as well as people expect. In this episode, they even say it’s based on vibes, not hard data.

Term

close midfield pack

"We'll see how he does in that close midfield pack. Okay, very interesting."

A “close midfield pack” describes a tight cluster of cars and drivers competing for similar positions, often separated by small gaps in pace. In that situation, strategy, tire management, and avoiding mistakes can swing results quickly.

Term

vibes

"There's no disrespect, as we always know with these big flops. It's purely based on vibes."

“Vibes” here means the prediction is based on intuition and gut feeling rather than detailed performance analysis. The hosts explicitly frame their “big flop” calls as not strictly data-driven.

Term

pole position

"[930.0s] But yeah, for me, Kimi Antonelli is my big flop. [935.2s] Pole position. [937.2s] Who is winning on the Saturday?"

Pole position means you qualify fastest and start the race from the very front. It usually helps a driver because they can get clean air and avoid getting stuck behind other cars.

Term

qualifying

"[986.8s] Mercedes, I do I do think Mercedes are a lot stronger in qualifying. [991.1s] As a kind of insane not to go for them for qualifying,"

Qualifying is when drivers race against the clock to set the starting positions for the main race. If a team is “strong in qualifying,” it usually means their cars can put down very fast laps.

Concept

top three for the race

"[1017.0s] OK, let's get into the top three for the race, starting with P3, Tom Bellingham. [1024.9s] OK, so P3, I have gone for Lando Norris going for a McLaren on the podium. [1031.6s] I've gone for good surprise."

The “top three” means the first, second, and third place finishers. Getting on the podium is a big deal in Formula 1 because it usually means you scored a lot of points.

Concept

lock in

"Right, I am going to lock in. Is it going to be a Mercedes 1-2?"

“Lock in” means they’re deciding and sticking with their pick. It’s like saying, “I’m choosing this and not changing it.”

Concept

1-2

"Is it going to be a Mercedes 1-2? This is the danger here."

A “1-2” means the same team takes the top two spots in the race. It’s a strong result because it suggests both cars were competitive.

Concept

points

"But yeah, I'll go for Antonelli because I want points. Do you want points? You think Kimmy P2 is absolutely locked in?"

“Points” refers to the scoring system used in F1, where higher finishing positions earn more championship points. In prediction games, choosing a likely P2/P3 is often about maximizing points rather than chasing the riskiest outcome.

Concept

podium

"Yeah, both put Lando on the podium is maybe quite a surprise. But yeah, I'll go for Antonelli because I want points."

The “podium” is the top three finishers in the race. If you predict someone makes the podium, you’re predicting they finish in the top three.

Company

Williams

"We have the brand new Williams team principle on the line. Hi, Matt. How are you?"

Williams is a Formula 1 racing team. The team principal is basically the team’s top boss who helps run the whole operation and make big decisions.

Brand

Ferrari

"So a Ferrari one, two. I thought I've got to make you smile at some point."

Ferrari is a famous Formula 1 team. “One-two” means two Ferrari cars finish 1st and 2nd.

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