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Our 2026 Miami GP predictions

Our 2026 Miami GP predictions

P1 with Matt and Tommy Apr 28, 2026 37 min
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About this episode

Matt and Tommy kick off with travel banter from New Zealand before diving into the big Formula 1 talking points: Turkey’s return to the calendar, the updated Miami GP regulations, and what they might mean for racing and qualifying. Their predictions lean heavily toward Mercedes and Kimi Antonelli, with George Russell and Antonelli split across pole, sprint, and race results, while McLaren and Lando Norris also feature as potential spoilers. The episode mixes analysis, playful rivalry, and family prediction cameos, with plenty of debate over whether the new rules will actually improve the show.

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Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Concept

F1

"The break is somewhat the zipline or F1, do you know me? Yeah, so yeah, that was really cool."

“F1” is short for Formula 1, the biggest kind of race car series in the world. It’s where drivers race high-performance open-wheel cars on tracks around the globe.

Concept

racing lines

"I did Luge with Grace. Practice her racing lines and things. She's a proper daredevil."

“Racing lines” are the best way to drive through a turn. If you practice them, you learn where to enter, where to go through the middle, and how to exit so you can carry more speed.

Concept

Luge

"So if you don't know what Luge is, it's essentially like downhill racing. Every video I've ever seen looks insanely dangerous. Can you, as someone who has actually done it, tell us how dangerous it actually is?"

Luge is a sport where you slide down an icy track on a small sled. You go really fast, and you steer by shifting your body and controlling the sled with your legs. It can look terrifying because the track is fast and the sled is hard to correct if you get off line.

Topic

Formula One

"So as the competitive Formula One fan that I am, I had to go with Grace and Katie, and then when they went off to get dinner, I had one ticket left... We'll get into the updated regs for Miami and get your thoughts, Tommy, shortly."

Formula One, or F1, is the highest level of open-wheel racing. Teams race on tracks around the world, and the rules can change from year to year. In this segment, they’re talking about F1 news and what it might mean for the Miami race.

Topic

F1 calendar

"We did discuss it not that long ago about circuits we'd want back on the F1 calendar. So it doesn't feel too unfamiliar, but as if by magic Turkey has returned and is back from 2027 for a five-year deal, I am buzzing."

The F1 calendar is just the list of races for the year—where the cars will compete. If a country like Turkey comes back, it changes the season’s schedule and can affect how teams prepare. Different tracks favor different car strengths, so calendar changes matter.

Topic

Turkey has returned

"So it doesn't feel too unfamiliar, but as if by magic Turkey has returned and is back from 2027 for a five-year deal, I am buzzing. This is fantastic news."

They’re saying Turkey is coming back to Formula One starting in 2027 for several years. That matters because it changes which tracks the teams will race on during the season. Teams may need different setups depending on the track, so it can affect performance expectations.

Topic

updated regs for Miami

"We'll get into the updated regs for Miami and get your thoughts, Tommy, shortly."

“Updated regs” means the rules are changing. Those changes can affect how the cars are built and how teams set them up for a race. Since they’re talking about Miami specifically, the rules could change what’s fast there compared to before.

Topic

Turkey coming back

"But in terms of Turkey coming back, what a W... It's a classic track. And it's a surprise, actually, with all this talk of maybe going to new places..."

The hosts discuss the return of the Turkish Grand Prix to the Formula One calendar. When a classic track comes back, teams can compare expected performance based on prior data and adjust car setups accordingly. Calendar changes also affect how teams plan development across the season.

Concept

F1 abandoning classic tracks

"and F1 abandoning classic tracks and stuff, and maybe abandoning Europe a little bit as well."

They’re talking about whether F1 might stop going to some of its older, famous tracks. Different tracks need different car setups and race strategies. So if the calendar changes, it can change how teams perform.

Topic

Port Amal

"We're actually going back to Port Amal, going back to Turkey now as well. So very exciting."

They mention a track name (“Port Amal”) while talking about where races are going on the calendar. They say they’re going back to it, which suggests it’s returning. The exact circuit name in the transcript may be misspelled, but it’s clearly a track discussion.

Topic

Sipang in India

"Certainly too much to ask. And Sipang in India. India, yeah, yeah, yeah."

They’re listing places on the F1 calendar, and they mention “Sipang in India.” That means they’re talking about a race location. The name might be spelled wrong in the transcript, but it’s clearly a track/venue reference.

Concept

updated regulations

"I've had some time after the solo podcast to absorb the updated regulations for Miami."

In Formula 1, the rules can change from season to season. When they do, teams have to adjust their cars so they still comply and stay competitive. It’s similar to a video game update that changes how the game is played.

Topic

Miami GP

"I've had some time after the solo podcast to absorb the updated regulations for Miami. I know a lot of you appreciated the podcast..."

They’re talking about the Miami Grand Prix—one of the Formula 1 races. They’re also connecting it to rule changes, because those can affect how teams set up their cars and how the race might play out. So it’s part prediction, part “what will the new rules do?”

Topic

Grand Prix

"Tommy, what are your thoughts about the updated regs heading into this weekend's Grand Prix? My thoughts is just that I hope they know what they're doing."

A “Grand Prix” is the full Formula 1 race weekend. It includes practice, qualifying, and the main race.

Concept

patch notes

"The joke was, yeah, like patch notes. They're just because the way they worded everything was even more confusing."

They’re comparing the rule updates to video-game patch notes. The idea is that the changes are listed, but it can still be confusing to figure out what it means for the cars.

Concept

V10

"because they were never going to stick a V10 in it. Are they after four races and go, oh, here are the new regs."

A “V10” is a type of engine with ten cylinders. The hosts are basically saying it’s not realistic to expect Formula 1 to go back to that kind of engine anytime soon.

Concept

super clipping

"The peak super clip power, which is something that upset me greatly just generally that phrase, essentially means when they are super clipping, they will recharge quicker than what they were before... maybe two to four seconds of super clipping."

In F1, the car has to manage energy and power in a few different modes. “Super clipping” sounds like one of those modes where the car is using power in a very specific way. If it can recharge faster, the car may spend less time in that mode and the racing can feel different.

Concept

harvest the energy quicker

"...because they're able to harvest the energy quicker in that period of time, maybe two to four seconds of super clipping."

“Harvest the energy quicker” refers to improving how efficiently an F1 car recovers energy during deceleration and other allowed phases. If recovery is faster, the car can build up usable energy sooner for later acceleration. That affects how often drivers can access strong power bursts during a lap.

Term

boost side of things

"Another thing to keep you up to speed with is the boost side of things as well. It's less powerful and hopefully will be less of a... there won't be a bigger discrepancy between slower cars and faster cars that are using boosts."

“Boost” in F1 is the extra power delivered from the car’s energy system (and related deployment rules). When the speaker says it’s “less powerful,” they’re describing a regulation or setup change that reduces how much performance advantage the boost provides. That can tighten the performance gap between cars and change overtaking patterns.

Concept

Oli Bearman example in Suzuka

"So hence, obviously, the Oli Bearman example in Suzuka. So there's a few other things that they're testing."

Oli Bearman is referenced in connection with an incident or notable moment at Suzuka, used as an example of what the sport is trying to address. In this context, it’s tied to boost/performance discrepancies and how those can affect race outcomes. The mention functions as a real-world case study for why the testing matters.

Concept

dangerous starts

"The testing, the some start minimum sort of power launch getaway thing to stop again having these dangerous starts. That's not implemented, that's being tested."

“Dangerous starts” points to concerns about how F1 cars launch from the grid—especially when traction, clutch/launch behavior, and driver timing combine with tight pack racing. The segment mentions a testing effort for a “start minimum sort of power” approach to reduce risk. That implies rule or control changes aimed at making launches more predictable and safer.

Topic

free practice one (FP1)

"“free practice one, I know a lot of you will be tuning into that one, [547.3s] has been extended to 90 minutes… So that free practice one is very important…”"

FP1 is the first practice session of the weekend in Formula One. Teams use it to try out settings and learn how the car feels, so they’re ready for qualifying and the race. If it’s longer, they get more time to figure things out.

Concept

sprint weekend

"“although I do joke, it is a sprint weekend. [555.2s] Let's not forget this, it's a sprint weekend.”"

A sprint weekend is a Formula One format where a shorter “sprint” race happens on Saturday, affecting the starting grid for Sunday’s main race. Because of that, teams and drivers often treat Friday practice and setup work as extra important to be ready for the sprint.

Brand

Williams

"I have gone for Williams... Williams have had a very difficult start to the season... So I'm going for Williams to see if they can salvage anything from a weekend... gone for Williams."

Williams is a Formula 1 racing team. The hosts are saying Williams has struggled early in the season, but they think Miami could be a weekend where the team surprises people.

Concept

very different regulations

"I know it's very different regulations, but the memory from last year's Miami was how well Williams did..."

When the hosts say “very different regulations,” they’re highlighting that F1 rules can change year to year, affecting car design, setup, and performance. That makes it risky to directly compare last year’s Miami results to this year’s expectations.

Term

reliability

"I think that he's not had a lot of things go his way currently [with] reliability of his car and I would love to see just a clean weekend for Lando."

Reliability just means the car can keep running all weekend without breaking. If it’s not reliable, the driver might be forced to retire or lose time even if they’re fast.

Brand

McLaren

"but I think this will be, with the fact McLaren looked genuinely better and Oscar could have won the race at Suzuka had it been for a bit more good fortune."

McLaren is a top Formula 1 team. When people say they “look better,” they mean the car is improving and should be faster and more competitive.

Brand

Red Bull

"I think it's going to get worse for Red Bull before it gets better... wait, Red Bull, we're using that and they're still this bad."

Red Bull Racing is one of F1’s top teams, and its performance is closely tied to how well its car and engine/energy management strategies comply with FIA rules. When the hosts say Red Bull “gets worse before it gets better,” they’re pointing to a period where the team’s pace isn’t matching its usual standard. The mention of qualifying issues suggests the car’s rule-sensitive systems may not be performing as expected.

Concept

loophole closed in qualifying

"What was very surprising was there's been a loophole closed in qualifying where Mercedes and Red Bull were doing a trick... And the FIA stopped that from happening."

Sometimes racing rules have gaps that teams can use to get an advantage. If the FIA closes that loophole, the teams can’t use the trick anymore, so qualifying results can swing. That’s why it can feel like the whole competitive picture changes overnight.

Concept

more power in qualifying

"where Mercedes and Red Bull were doing a trick that basically meant they had more power in qualifying."

The hosts describe teams gaining “more power in qualifying,” which points to F1’s rule-managed engine/energy deployment strategies. In qualifying, teams often run modes that maximize performance for a short window, but those modes must comply with FIA regulations. If the FIA intervenes, it can limit how much extra power teams can access during that critical session.

Term

in-lap

"And then the car would almost shut down on its in-lap. But it didn't matter because they've already completed that lap."

An in-lap is the lap a driver completes after their timed run, typically returning to the pits. The hosts say the car would “almost shut down on its in-lap,” implying a system behavior that changes once the qualifying effort is complete. That kind of behavior can be tied to how teams manage power usage and compliance with FIA monitoring.

Brand

FIA

"And the FIA stopped that from happening. And one of the biggest surprises from that was, wait, Red Bull, we're using that..."

The FIA is the organization that makes and enforces the rules in Formula 1. If they stop a tactic, it means teams can’t use that trick anymore. That can change how fast cars are in qualifying and races.

Term

Q3

"And one of the biggest surprises from that was, wait, Red Bull, we're using that and they're still this bad. Max didn't even make it into Q3 last time."

In F1 qualifying, Q3 is the last and most important session. If you don’t reach Q3, it usually means your car wasn’t fast enough to fight for the best starting spots. That can make the race harder because you start farther back.

Concept

Nürburgring

"And how motivated is Max going to be returning to Formula 1 after having been racing at the Nürburgring again and things like that."

The Nürburgring is a very famous race track in Germany. The hosts mention it because racing there can help a driver stay sharp and confident. But it’s still different from F1 tracks, so it’s not a perfect predictor of F1 results.

Brand

Mercedes

"And again, this is maybe the Mercedes advantage in qualifying isn't going to be as strong. Oscar Piastri had a brilliant race in Japan, of course, and great qualifying as well. But Mercedes have been, of course, very, very fast in qualifying."

Mercedes is a top Formula 1 team. The hosts are saying Mercedes might be less dominant in qualifying than before, which could change who starts near the front.

Term

engine

"I just feel as though Mercedes will just turn up their engine a little bit more. So interesting. OK, keep that up, Tommy."

When the hosts say Mercedes will “turn up their engine,” they’re referring to increasing engine output within the allowed operating modes and regulations. In F1, engine settings and deployment strategy can vary between qualifying/sprint and the race, affecting speed and reliability margins.

Concept

Sprint Pole

"Antonelli, don't forget, last year got Sprint Pole and was really good around Miami... So that is what I've gone for for Sprint Pole position."

In F1, there’s sometimes a sprint weekend where a short race happens before the main race. “Sprint pole” means you were fastest in the session that sets up the sprint, so you start the sprint from the front.

Topic

Sprint Winner

"...Charlotte Clair, Sprint Paul, Charlotte Clair, Sprint Winner, Charlotte Clair. I am eight points out of three. If Charlotte clean sweeps this weekend..."

A sprint winner is the driver who wins the shorter sprint race during a race weekend. That result can help decide where cars start for the main race.

Concept

new start procedure

"Will we see a new start procedure implemented? ... I don't know if they've said that they might do it or they said they're just testing it, but would if it worked, would they not do it immediately?"

This is about how the race start might be changed—like the exact steps and timing before the cars go. If a new method works better, teams and officials usually want to use it right away.

Concept

pole position

"And if Oscar Piastri can qualify well, we've said many times it's so hard to overtake that the Mercedes certainly haven't breezed past everyone in the races as much as we thought..."

Pole position means you qualify fastest and start at the very front of the grid. It’s a big advantage because you’re in the best position to lead early.

Concept

hard to overtake

"And if Oscar Piastri can qualify well, we've said many times it's so hard to overtake that the Mercedes certainly haven't breezed past everyone in the races as much as we thought..."

They’re saying it’s tough to pass other cars in Formula 1. So if you don’t start near the front, you may struggle to move up during the race.

Concept

safety mechanisms

"And just to clarify the race start stuff, most of it is around safety mechanisms, as opposed to actually changing the start procedure, just in case there was any confusion about that."

Before the race starts, F1 uses extra safety steps to prevent problems like cars stalling or getting away too slowly. The goal is to keep the whole field safer at the most chaotic moment of the race.

Term

40-second weigh on the grid

"We're going to have a 40-second weigh on the grid. Yeah, it's more about the stalls and the slow getaways than it is."

F1 sometimes has rules that require cars to be weighed while they’re lined up before the start. If it takes about 40 seconds, teams have to plan so it doesn’t cause delays or problems when the lights go out.

Concept

stalls and the slow getaways

"Yeah, it's more about the stalls and the slow getaways than it is. I mean, I know Mercedes have had slow getaways, but I don't know if that's what this is trying to help, this is more of a safety thing."

A stall is when the car doesn’t get going properly at the start. A slow getaway is when it takes too long to launch, and in racing that can cost you a lot of positions quickly.

Brand

Ferraris

"So fully expecting the same kind of McLaren and Ferraris to get off the line well, although McLaren are literally running a Mercedes engine."

Ferrari is the Italian F1 constructor and one of the sport’s most historic teams. The hosts group Ferrari with McLaren as likely to have a good start, implying strong launch performance and race execution.

Concept

Insurance isn't one size fits all

"So how long will it take until Mercedes just get off cleanly and then win by 60 seconds? Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's why drivers have enjoyed Progressive's Name Your Price tool for years now."

Insurance plans aren’t all the same—different people need different coverage. The sponsor is saying you can choose what fits your situation instead of taking a generic option.

Company

Progressive's Name Your Price tool

"That's why drivers have enjoyed Progressive's Name Your Price tool for years now. With the Name Your Price tool, you tell them what you want to pay, and they'll show you options that fit your budget."

This is a Progressive insurance feature where you tell them the price you want to pay. Then they show you options that could fit that budget.

Topic

poll position

"Right, let's head to poll position for the main race. Poll position. I'm going to go for George Russell..."

Pole position means you start the race from the very front. It’s usually won by being fastest in qualifying, and it helps because you’re less likely to get stuck in traffic at the start.

Topic

problem in qualifying in China

"...he's not had the best of luck either with the problem in qualifying in China as well, and had a few issues in Suzuka."

They’re talking about something going wrong during qualifying in China. In F1, qualifying is crucial because it decides where you start the race, so problems there can hurt your whole weekend.

Topic

issues in Suzuka

"...and had a few issues in Suzuka. So he's still got the pace and can still absolutely deliver."

They mention Suzuka, where Russell had some problems. Different tracks can stress the car in different ways, so issues there can point to setup or performance challenges.

Concept

P3

"Charlotte Clair. So, P3, I have gone for McLaren"

“P3” means finishing third. It’s a common way F1 fans talk about podium spots.

Topic

points

"[1484.4s] Not for Oscar Piastri's sake, [1485.6s] but the fact that you will score any points this week. [1488.5s] I really, really need you to have a big fat duck."

Points are how the sport keeps score across the season. You earn them by finishing in certain positions, and they add up over time.

Topic

tactics

"[1506.4s] This is going to finish second, [1508.4s] and now we wait to see if tactics will be played. [1514.3s] If tactics will be played."

In F1, “tactics” usually means strategic decisions like when to pit, how to manage tire wear, and how to respond to rivals’ undercuts/overcuts. These choices can swing track position and ultimately the finishing order.

Term

lockout

"In first position. Is it Kimmy Antonelli lockout? Well done."

A “lockout” means one team finishes at the very top, like taking first and second. It implies they were so strong that nobody else could beat them.

Car

George Russell

"So P1, I've gone for. George Russell. ... I think Russell's going to bounce back. ... huge opportunity to win the championship and probably still the favourite at this stage."

George Russell is one of the Mercedes drivers in Formula 1. The hosts think he’s had some inconsistent results, but they still believe he can fight for the championship. They’re basically saying he’s not done yet.

Term

1-2

"From Mercedes 1-2 in different orders. Who's going to be right or find out?"

“1-2” in racing means one team’s cars finish first and second in the same race. When the hosts say “Mercedes 1-2,” they’re implying a strong team result where both Mercedes drivers are at the front. The “different orders” part means the finishing order could swap between races.

Topic

championship lead

"Yeah, my mind's eye is seeing Kimi Antonelli getting a decent championship lead and then George Russell going on an absolute blinder of a European season."

A “championship lead” refers to the driver who is ahead in the season standings based on points. In F1, that lead can change race to race, so predicting how big it becomes is a key part of season forecasting.

Topic

P-WAT

"And it's called P-WAT. FWAT. Where if you don't know, Tommy is going to get up a random number generator between, well, fourth and 20th. And we are going to say immediately who is going to finish in that position."

P-WAT is a fun prediction game they play. They randomly pick a finishing place (like 4th to 22nd), then they guess which driver will finish there, and they score points for accuracy.

Topic

random number generator

"Where if you don't know, Tommy is going to get up a random number generator between, well, fourth and 20th. And we are going to say immediately who is going to finish in that position."

They’re using a random number generator to pick which finishing position they’ll predict. That way, it’s not just based on who they think will do best—it’s more of a challenge.

Concept

DNS

"So, double DNS confirmed for McLaren like last time. OK, well, there you go."

DNS means the car didn’t even start the race. If it happens to both picks, it can completely flip the results of a prediction.

Concept

sprint and race wins together

"I will be getting into the nitty gritty of adding the sprint and race wins together if it hasn't come in. So, just be aware of that one."

The hosts are combining sprint wins and main-race wins into one total to evaluate a prediction. This matters because sprint weekends can produce multiple “win” moments beyond just the main Grand Prix.

Concept

sprint poll

"Because they have every sprint poll, every win this year. Yeah, they top everything. That's a good loophole."

In F1, a “sprint” weekend includes a shorter race that sets the grid for the main race, and “poll” here refers to pole position—starting first. The hosts are using sprint results as part of their prediction about Mercedes’ dominance.

Topic

Miami turn one

"Tommy, who have you gone for? I have gone for S Mitchell 8, which is a three car incident into turn one in either race. I mean, to be fair, Miami turn one does like a little incident, doesn't it?"

“Turn one” is the first big corner at the Miami race track. It’s known for being busy right after the start, so crashes or close calls happen there more often than elsewhere.

Concept

three car incident

"I have gone for S Mitchell 8, which is a three car incident into turn one in either race. I mean, to be fair, Miami turn one does like a little incident, doesn't it?"

A “three car incident” is when three cars get involved in the same crash or contact. It usually happens when cars are packed together and someone can’t avoid the others.

Concept

pile-up into turn one

"[1868.4s] So, that's so fascinating, by the way. [1870.4s] Wait for a 22 car pile of into turn one now, after you said that. [1874.7s] Bottas, Bottas has done at least an under and hungry before."

A “pile-up into turn one” means lots of cars crash at the first corner. It happens because everyone is close together at the start, so if one car slows or turns wrong, others can’t avoid it.

Topic

collisions as prediction theme

"[1878.2s] So, this is really interesting though, Tommy, because mine is also to do with collisions. [1884.1s] Oh, OK. [1885.2s] Mine's from Shezan. [1887.4s] Team mates have a collision."

They’re basically predicting that there might be crashes in the Miami GP, including between teammates. They’re using that as a “what could happen” storyline for the weekend.

Term

DNF

"[1904.3s] And I'll take the point. [1905.2s] It doesn't need to be a DNF. [1906.6s] Like, you know, we're not going to wish any ill will."

DNF means the driver didn’t finish the race. Usually it’s because of a crash or something breaking, and they won’t score the normal race points.

Topic

F1 race there

"I feel like it used to be your dad last time, but it's also been like ages since F1 race there."

The hosts note that it’s been a long time since an F1 race was held at that location (Miami). This kind of “time since last visit” matters because track conditions, car setup trends, and team momentum can shift between visits.

Term

P2

"P2, Kimmy. Kimmy Antonelli in P2. And then in first place, George Russell."

“P2” means second place. So they’re saying that driver should finish just behind the winner.

Term

first place

"And then in first place, George Russell. All right."

“First place” means the winner. They’re laying out who they think will take the top spot.

Term

clean sweep

"for a Kimmy Antonelli clean sweep. So, that's interesting."

A “clean sweep” means the same driver or team wins everything they can in that weekend—no close calls or second-place finishes.

Term

P1

"I'll put it to P2. George Russell. And P1. I'm going to go for Kimmy and Tinelli."

“P1” just means the winner—first place. They’re using it like a quick way to say who they think will finish where.

Concept

third to fifth

"I think third to fifth. But you know, let us know."

“Third to fifth” means finishing somewhere between 3rd and 5th place. It’s still a strong result, but not as dominant as taking 1st and 2nd.

Topic

Charlotte Club predictions

"Or maybe it'll be like a where the Charlotte Club finish full stop, like just every single week. Just that's the focus. Just the Charlotte Club predictions."

They’re saying they’ll keep doing the “Charlotte Club” predictions every week. It’s more like a regular show segment than a single prediction event.

Topic

Australia tour

"Final thoughts are that kind of wait for the Australia tour. It's going to be weird because we're going to be in Australia in different places at the start. But then we will be together for the first show in Adelaide."

They’re talking about a trip to Australia for their shows. They’ll be apart at first, then meet up for the first show in Adelaide.

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