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Our 2026 Monaco GP predictions

Our 2026 Monaco GP predictions

P1 with Matt and Tommy Jun 02, 2026 34 min
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About this episode

Monaco GP predictions take center stage as Matt and Tommy get set for a trip, hype the weekend’s “bad rep,” and talk logistics—no live-streaming, just quick releases after. They explain why Monaco is uniquely chaotic: “there is no straight mode,” energy “recharge” is frequent, and slipstream can matter more than DRS. Their picks lean toward Ferrari strength in corners, a “big flop Mercedes” call, and bold qualifying chaos like “a driver from the top four teams does not make it into Q3.”

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Technical Too Afraid to Ask
Brand

BWT

"I may be in the minority that I'll miss the BWT pink because I like the Alpine. I think it looks really cool and really stands out. But it's a cool thing for Formula One."

BWT is a sponsor brand that shows up on Formula 1 cars. Here they’re talking about the famous pink look BWT is associated with, and how it might change next season.

Brand

Alpine

"I may be in the minority that I'll miss the BWT pink because I like the Alpine. I think it looks really cool and really stands out. But it's a cool thing for Formula One."

Alpine is a Formula 1 team. The hosts are saying they like Alpine’s color scheme and how it looks on the car compared with another sponsor’s pink.

Term

livery

"And it is one of those things where when we get to car launches next season, it's probably going to be the most anticipated one because you know it's going to be a new livery."

A livery is the car’s design—its paint colors and sponsor stickers. They’re excited because next season’s cars will have a brand-new look.

Person

Bottas

"So over to another bit of news, which is of course, Bottas. Now this was a rather large rumour circulating around him being replaced."

Bottas is a Formula 1 driver. They’re talking about rumors that he might lose his seat, and they say it’s likely because his recent results haven’t been great.

Topic

rumour circulating around him being replaced

"So over to another bit of news, which is of course, Bottas. Now this was a rather large rumour circulating around him being replaced."

They’re talking about rumors in Formula 1 about whether a driver will be replaced. It’s basically “who might lose their seat” news, and they’re saying this one may not be true.

Person

Ocon

"it seems as though similar to Ocon in Canada, that this has also been dismissed."

Ocon is another Formula 1 driver. They’re saying Bottas’s rumor sounds similar to a past rumor about Ocon, and that one ended up being wrong too.

Company

Cadillac

"It took it with a pinch of salt anyway before Cadillac themselves dismissed it and said it's not true, particularly because they were talking about Colton Herter, replacing him..."

Cadillac is a car brand. Here, the hosts are talking about Cadillac as the team behind the scenes, making decisions about which drivers should race.

Person

Colton Herter

"...Cadillac themselves dismissed it and said it's not true, particularly because they were talking about Colton Herter, replacing him who doesn't even have enough super license points yet."

Colton Herter is the driver name mentioned in the rumor. The hosts say he can’t realistically take the seat yet because he doesn’t have the required Formula 1 license points.

Person

Perez

"...particularly because they were talking about Colton Herter, replacing him who doesn't even have enough super license points yet. So it can't have it literally can't happen anyway. And so he needs to do more to be able to get that seat... if he gets, completely whooped by Perez the entire year..."

Perez is another Formula 1 driver in the comparison. The hosts are saying if Bottas is consistently beaten by Perez, the team might decide to change drivers.

Term

super license points

"...particularly because they were talking about Colton Herter, replacing him who doesn't even have enough super license points yet. So it can't have it literally can't happen anyway."

To drive in Formula 1, you need permission from the FIA. One part of that is earning enough “super license” points, and the hosts say the driver in the rumor hasn’t earned enough yet.

Term

DRS

"And finally, there is no straight mode at Monaco. Not one single one. We're not going to see the old rear and front wings moving. I was gonna say old DRS and I didn't say it and then it makes absolutely no sense."

DRS is a Formula 1 trick that makes the rear wing open in a specific way to reduce drag. Less drag means the car can go faster for a short time. The hosts are saying Monaco’s layout doesn’t give DRS much opportunity to help.

Term

drag

"So it's full, just drag send full drag. Yeah, opposite of full send. Yeah, true, actually. But but the straights are so short that they shouldn't, in theory, super clip."

Drag is the “air resistance” that slows a car down. In racing, engineers try to reduce drag when they want top speed, but they also need enough grip from the wings. The discussion is about how Monaco’s short straights change that trade-off.

Term

super clipping

"But but the straights are so short that they shouldn't, in theory, super clip. And, you know, part of that was because it had to reduce the drag."

“Super clipping” sounds like a nickname for a situation where the car’s aero setup is too extreme for the track. If you run the “straight” setup where it doesn’t really fit, you can end up losing too much speed. The hosts are saying Monaco’s straights are short enough that this would be a problem.

Concept

active arrow

"That that's why this was kind of introduced any way that the active arrow, but it's not needed at Monaco. And I think this is absolutely the right, the right choice."

An “active arrow” is a way of adjusting the rear wing so the car can be set up differently depending on what’s happening on track. The idea is usually to help on straights by reducing air resistance. The hosts think Monaco’s track layout means you don’t really benefit from that adjustment.

Term

slipstream

"Definitely the right choice is not needed. It will help with slipstream. I think if the cars are slower, that's better for Monaco."

Slipstream is when you drive close behind another car and benefit from the air being pushed out of the way. That can help you carry more speed and catch up for an overtake. The hosts think Monaco could be better for that kind of racing.

Term

overtakes

"it's not going to be a million overtakes, is it? But it's something, I think."

An overtake is when one driver gets around another car. If it’s easy to overtake, races tend to be more exciting because positions change more often.

Term

recharge

"they need every bit of help down a lot of the straights this year, whereas with Monaco, there's plenty of places to recharge."

“Recharge” here refers to energy recovery and deployment cycles used in modern F1 power units. Cars can store energy (for example via braking) and then deploy it later, so circuits with longer straights or more time between heavy energy use let teams “recharge” before the next push.

Term

qualifying of old

"I'm interested to see whether we do get the qualifying of old on the Saturday, and we're not seeing any kind of lifting or any kind of super clipping"

They’re talking about qualifying feeling like the older style—drivers going all-out to set the starting order. The hope is that it’ll be more dramatic and less limited by the current system.

Term

lifting

"and we're not seeing any kind of lifting or any kind of super clipping, that would be lovely."

In F1, “lifting” is when a driver eases off the throttle earlier than expected to manage power usage, traction, or energy deployment. It often shows up when the car is trying to stay within limits rather than driving flat-out the whole way.

Term

boost

"with basically such a big advantage of a boost behind someone, that whether you could get past"

“Boost” means extra power for acceleration. In racing, if you have more power than the car ahead, it can help you close the gap and try to pass.

Term

harbour

"Someone's ended up in the harbour if we had the same difference in speed."

They’re talking about Monaco’s track being close to the water. If cars are much faster than others, it can get dangerous and lead to big accidents.

Place

Japan

"I think that is asking for trouble if we had those big, like we saw in Japan, for example, with Oli and Franca."

They’re referencing a race in Japan as an example of what can go wrong when cars have very different speeds. The point is to avoid repeating that kind of chaos.

Term

pole position

"Last time we went to Monaco, he nearly got pole position. He was absolutely unbelievable..."

Pole position means starting first on the grid. It’s earned by being fastest in qualifying. Starting first is a big advantage in F1, especially on a track like Monaco where overtaking is hard.

Term

final sector

"I'm sure he was let me have a look because it was the year where it was a Stappen and Alonzo fighters and Max did that amazing final sector..."

Tracks are split into sections for timing. The final sector is the last part of the lap. If someone is really fast in the final sector, it can be a sign they’re close to the best overall lap time.

Term

podium

"And yeah, he obviously got on the podium that race, which was insane for an Alpine."

A podium in F1 means finishing in the top three. The top three drivers get trophies on the podium. Getting a podium is a big deal because it usually means you had a strong race.

Term

Ferrari power unit

"I think Haas could go quite strong with that Ferrari power unit, of course, as well. And yeah, going for Esti Besti."

In F1, the power unit is the car’s main engine system, including the hybrid parts. It’s a big reason why cars have different speed and acceleration. Here, they’re talking about how a Ferrari-supplied power unit could help another team at Monaco.

Car

Ferrari

"But I have to go with my gut and I do genuinely believe that Ferrari will be strong around here because their whole deficit is down massive straights and we don't have one of those in Monaco."

Ferrari is a famous Formula 1 racing team. In Monaco, the course is very twisty and slow, so teams that handle well at low speed and stay consistent can do especially well.

Term

massive straights

"Ferrari will be strong around here because their whole deficit is down massive straights and we don't have one of those in Monaco."

“Massive straights” means long straight sections where cars can go very fast. If a team is especially good at top speed, it often benefits on tracks with lots of straightaway time.

Place

Monaco

"is down massive straights and we don't have one of those in Monaco. So sign me up. ... Ferrari could well be fastest and look, let's look about the history of Monaco as well."

Monaco is a famous Formula 1 race track in Monaco. It’s very twisty and slow with lots of walls, so it’s easy to make mistakes and hard to recover.

Car

Mercedes

"I'm going for two pointers left right and centre Mercedes. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, come on. Easy, easy. ... So this could go either terribly or wonderfully, but I've gone for big flop Mercedes."

Mercedes is a major Formula 1 team. The idea here is that Monaco is different from many tracks because it doesn’t have long straight sections, so Mercedes might not have the same edge.

Term

Chalet Claire

"Yeah, I'm glad I didn't go first this time because I knew that even if you went for good surprise, Chalet Claire, I'm popping Ferrari and so like, you know,"

“Chalet Claire” sounds like a named spot people associate with the Monaco Grand Prix. In this context, it’s being used like a shorthand for a “surprise” outcome rather than a car or technical detail.

Person

Max Verstappen

"I think this could be the same here and Max Verstappen more recently, of course, you know, there have been opportunities for other teams and other drivers to get involved and win..."

Max Verstappen is a famous Formula 1 race driver. The hosts mention him to talk about how dominance can happen, but Monaco can still shake things up.

Person

Franco Colopinto

"I've gone for Franco Colopinto. I was just looking down the order and Colopinto had an amazing race last time out..."

Franco Colapinto is a Formula 1 race driver. In this segment, the hosts are picking him as a prediction because they think his recent performances could translate to Monaco.

Term

engine merchants

"I don't think Alpine would be as strong around here as they have been in the past because again, they're Mercedes engine merchants as well."

“Engine merchants” means a team is using another company’s engine. So their speed can depend a lot on how strong that supplied engine is.

Concept

off-gasly

"Oh, wait, he was in a wheelie bin. He's in a wheelie bin. It's still, it was still off, off-gasly, but I don't think it's one of his better, better tracks."

“Off-gasly” is about what the car does when you lift off the gas pedal. The hosts are suggesting the car’s behavior in that moment was related to throttle-off handling.

Person

Franka Colopinto

"You've done it. Oh, Franka Colopinto. Good last two races."

Franka Colopinto is a racing driver the hosts are talking about. They’re saying she had a strong run in the last two races, then had a bad one right after.

Person

Charlotte Clair

"Pole position. Charlotte Clair. Easy dub. Thank you very much. Thanks for the point. ... Charlotte Clair is unbelievable around this circuit."

Charlotte Clair is the driver the hosts expect to do well at Monaco. They’re saying she’s strong around this track and should be able to turn pole into a win.

Person

Hamilton

"Oh, no, let's go with Hamilton. Screw it. Why not?"

Hamilton is a famous Formula 1 driver. Here, the host is picking him for a strong finish in the Monaco race.

Brand

McLaren

"There is a world where McLaren are fastest here. This is the beauty of Monaco, right?"

McLaren is the Formula 1 team Lando Norris drives for. The host is saying McLaren could be the quickest team at Monaco in this race.

Term

pecking order

"I feel like the excitement leading up to it of not knowing the pecking order qualifying, potentially being amazing."

“Pecking order” here just means who’s currently the fastest. The host is saying Monaco can be exciting because you don’t always know who’s on top until qualifying.

Term

P3

"So yeah, I've gone for Lando Norris P3. [1127.5s] P3. [1128.4s] I have gone for Lewis Hamilton."

“P3” just means third place. In F1, the top three finishers are the ones who make the podium.

Person

Lando Norris

"So yeah, I've gone for Lando Norris P3. [1127.5s] P3. [1128.4s] I have gone for Lewis Hamilton."

Lando Norris is an F1 race driver. Here, the hosts are predicting he’ll finish in third place at Monaco.

Person

Nico Rospega

"[1151.3s] Nico Rospega was used to be really good around, around there as well. [1154.9s] As well. [1156.6s] So yeah, Lewis, I've gone for Lewis still with a good result in P3"

This sounds like a transcription error for Nico Rosberg, another former F1 champion. The point is that he was known for doing well at Monaco.

Term

Second place

"[1163.0s] Yeah. [1163.8s] Very fair. [1164.4s] Second place. [1166.0s] Second place."

“Second place” means finishing just behind the winner. It’s the P2 spot, which is still on the podium in F1.

Car

Ferrari 12

"...ce, I'm going for Lewis Hamilton. Whether it be a Ferrari 12 who knows? But I know for a fact that that pick i..."

The Ferrari 812 Superfast is a very expensive, very fast sports car made by Ferrari. It’s designed for high-speed driving and it uses a big V12 engine. People bring it up because it’s one of the most extreme versions of a Ferrari you can buy.

Person

Charle-Claire

"The amount of times I've predicted Ferrari to win or Charle-Claire to win... have you seen the amount of times things have gone wrong around Monaco for Charle-Claire?"

That’s Charles Leclerc, one of Ferrari’s Formula 1 drivers. Monaco is a track where tiny errors can ruin your race, so people talk a lot about how he performs there.

Term

power rankings

"I actually saw that the power rankings at Formula 1 do. He was like 10th, which I think is quite insane actually."

Power rankings are basically a “who’s doing best right now” list. It’s not the official standings, but people use it to guess who might be strongest in the next race.

Term

fourth or lower

"The winner will start the race from fourth or lower."

They mean the winner starts the race from 4th place or worse. On Monaco, it’s tough to pass, so winning from farther back is a big deal.

Person

Olivier Panis

"The last time this happened was 1996 when Olivier Panis won."

Olivier Panis is a Formula 1 driver from France. He won the Monaco Grand Prix in 1996, and that win is remembered because Monaco is a track where starting position matters a lot.

Person

Hülkenberg

"So my Patreon prediction instead is from Alex C 0302 [1671.2s] Hülkenberg gets his first points of the season. ... [1694.6s] they get a good start or at least Hülkenberg for my points."

Hülkenberg is a Formula 1 race driver. Here, the hosts are betting that he’ll finally score points at Monaco.

Brand

Audi

"[1677.0s] I nearly went for big flop Audi, but I thought they, yeah, I don't feel [1681.8s] like Audi are going to be that strong, but you never know. ... [1699.2s] I've gone for that because how Audi and Hülkenberg has not scored [1702.4s] any points."

Audi is a car company. In this prediction segment, the hosts are talking about whether Audi’s F1 effort will be strong enough to score points at Monaco.

Term

third place

"For some reason, third place, Gasly. Okay."

“Third place” means the car finishes third in the race. It’s one of the podium spots, so it’s a big deal for points and bragging rights.

Car

Mclaren 12

"Okay. McLaren 12 and an Alpine. I mean, if it comes true, you look..."

The McLaren 12C GT Sprint is a McLaren sports car made for track use. It’s based on the 12C but tuned for faster, more race-like driving. People mention it because it’s a more performance-focused version rather than a normal everyday car.

Term

Mercs

"Sorry, Fred, but, you know, bored of going with the Mercs now, so, yeah. Okay."

“Mercs” is slang for Mercedes in Formula 1. The speaker is basically saying they don’t want to keep picking Mercedes as the likely winner.

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