Predicting the next 10-20 years for EVs, Hybrids and Gas engines using the last 30 years as a guide

Hey folks, Lindy Lawson here, The Car Guru, and in today's episode we're going to go

in a little bit different direction.

We're going to talk about what's coming and try to predict that based on the past, what

has happened the last 30 years in the auto industry because a lot has happened, a lot

has changed.

If that much changes in the next 10 to 20 years, a lot of the things that I'm predicting

are going to be overshadowed by something we don't even see on the horizon.

I really think that's a possibility, especially with AI and all that nonsense.

But today I'm going to try to look at the future just a little bit.

That's what I'm going to do first.

I want to ask you a question, of course it's rhetorical because you can't answer it, but

well you can answer it, I just can't hear your answer.

I would like to know what you think the next big things will be in the automotive world

in the next 10 to 20 years.

Now they tried to go ahead and cram EVs down our throats.

And as soon as the Democrats got out of power and the Republicans got into power, all that

went by the wayside because of the loss of the $7,500 tax credit that you could get if

you bought an EV.

And the realization that the infrastructure was just not out there to keep us charged

when we're traveling to the beach or going on any kind of vacation.

We had anywhere from 200 to maybe 350 miles of range.

And then once we got to the, well before we even got to the end of that potential range,

we were getting nervous to find a charger and the infrastructure was just not there.

Plus when you got there, you would have to sit for anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour

to get a charge up to 80%.

The way these things charge is that they get to 80% pretty rapidly and then they dramatically

slow down especially when you're on one of those superchargers because it will damage

the battery.

So those were the challenges to full EV adoption.

Now what happens if the Republicans lose?

Democrats take over the White House and Congress.

You'll probably see the $7,500 tax credit again.

And they will try to supercharge the moved EVs by clamping down on internal combustion

engines with legislation, emission requirements.

And so they will make our lives miserable all because of the lie that they love to tell

that EVs are better on the environment.

Now is that a total lie?

Well it's not if you buy an EV and you keep it for like somewhere between four to six

years when at that point it offsets the carbon footprint that it took to build it because

of the fuel savings or not the fuel, well I guess you're saving money on fuel for sure

but you're still paying.

You know my biggest fear with EVs was the fact that you know the gasoline market is

pretty much a free enterprise market, utilities, the people that provide electricity, that's

not, that's a quasi-government agency in most cases.

Look at TVA where we live, Tennessee Valley Authority.

Those rates are determined by a governmental board and they charge whatever they want to.

Let's say that they want us to cut back, they want to create a blackout because or a grayout,

whatever they call it when they want you to use less electricity.

Is that going to control whether you can get around anymore because you have an electric

car? Of course it is. I mean if there's no juice coming into your house you can't charge

your EV. Is that a loss of freedom? Yes and that's why I think the best case scenario

for this country is to have some type of a blend of EVs, hybrids and internal combustion

engines that are extremely efficient and don't throw out a bunch of bad stuff into the environment.

Which they're not now, they're doing a great job but they've just about reached the limit

of what they can do. You know matter of fact the technology on the modern internal combustion

engine has gotten so good that you can build an engine that has six or seven hundred horsepower

that doesn't pollute the environment anymore than a little three cylinder turbocharged

engine. So they've gotten about as far as they can go. Now when it comes to hybrids we've

got a ways to go yet. The most successful hybrid ever is the Toyota Prius. I think it came

out in 2004 and it wasn't widely accepted but the people that did buy those were very

environmentally conscious or they just wanted to get tremendous fuel economy and that vehicle

did. They didn't care what the vehicle looked like because it looked like a jelly bean

and that was fine. A jelly bean with a point on the front. It was not attractive. Maybe

it was to some people. You know beauty is in the eye of the beholder right. So most hybrid

technologies are still dependent on the internal combustion engine. It does most of the work

but whenever the vehicle is under very light throttle it will shut the engine off and the

electric motor will take over. And so that's why hybrids tend to get anywhere from ten

to thirty percent better fuel economy than an internal combustion engine. But the internal

combustion engine the ICE engine is doing most of the work. It is supplemented by the

battery and the electric motor. Now Nissan is coming out with a hybrid this year that

uses a different technology. Basically the vehicle is always driven by electric motors

so it's always silky smooth. That's the one thing I do like about EVs is there's no vibration.

The power is instant. And so Nissan is taking advantage of that. It will have a four cylinder

or a three cylinder gasoline engine on it. But that engine is not connected to the wheels.

Only the electric motors are connected to the wheels. So the when the battery needs

to be recharged then the three cylinder engine fires up and it sends power to the batteries

which in turn power the electric motors which in turn turn the wheels. What's the advantage

of that smoothness and just a different driving experience. It's the opposite of like the

Toyota Prius and the Honda's and so forth. This technology is amazing and I'm really

glad that Nissan is the one that came out with it because I happen to be a Nissan dealer.

Okay I'll take my first break and I'll be back in just one minute. Okay so let's take

a break and let's continue this discussion. So what else is coming out well self driving.

You may not be on board but you will be on board a vehicle where somebody is going to

be not driving it. It might be your your children or your grandchildren. You'll be in a back seat

and say put your hands on the steering wheel and say I don't have to. It's taking us right

to the restaurant pop pop. So that's the way it's going to be. And see one of the beauties

of this that I think is going to be so important to people in their 70s and 80s or people that

have mobility issues or people that you know they've lost their their eyesight or there

might be some other physical problem that keeps them from being able to drive. They'll

still be able to go because they can get into a car and tell the car where to go and it

will take them there and drop them off at the door and then it will park itself and when

they're ready to fetch it they'll just get out their smartphone if they know how to use

that and it'll drive right up the doors will open up and they'll be able to climb right

in this this aspect of of self driving to me is is fabulous. Now we are at the infancy

of this. I know Tesla has been messing around with it for many years and some people have

lost their lives depending on it. They were guinea pigs. I guess Ford is causing a lot

of folks to be guinea pigs with their blue crews. I don't know what GM. I think GM calls

theirs super crews. So it's a very limited self driving feature. I mean the blue crews

works on certain roads almost always interstates. If there's any type of road construction or

any type of tightening of the curves the blue crews will say get your hands back on the

steering wheel and that's what you'll do because it's going to deactivate. But then

when you know it gets past that it says OK you can take your hands back off now and it

continues driving down the road. Is that something that you would use. I've done it. I went to

Cincinnati to see my grandson about 115 miles hands free. There were a couple places where

it said it was going to deactivate and I was supposed to put my hands back on the steering

wheel. And like I said it was mostly when it was getting real curvy or there had been

some road construction. The time that I wanted to grab the steering wheel was when I got

beside a big 18 wheeler or I was beside a car and it just felt too close for me. I mean

I think automatically when I'm passing a tractor trailer I automatically move over just a little

bit. I stay in my lane but I just subconsciously I guess move over and this thing doesn't.

It just stays right in the middle of the lane and to me that's just not far enough away.

So what else is coming other than that. I think just a whole lot more voice activation.

I think that will get better and better with AI. I think they'll recognize our voices better.

We won't have to repeat ourselves. I remember when they first came out with that it was

terrible. The original Ford Sync it was called S or spelled S Y N C. It was a touch screen

and it was you're supposed to be able to voice activate things and it couldn't understand

my East Tennessee accent apparently. It was discriminatory but also the touch screen things

just didn't work but that's gotten way better and the next step is just going to be total

voice control and then after that it will be total mind control. I guess you'll get

in and you just think where you want to go and okay I'll take you there. The next big

advance will be just additional safety things. I don't think you're going to be able to improve

airbags much. Analog brakes, dynamic stability control. I think you'll be able to improve

how they work. I think there will instead of a computer taking over I think AI is going

to just respond a whole lot faster and may even make steering maneuvers for us to get

us out of trouble. Right now it's just the application of additional throttle to a certain

wheel or braking to a certain wheel to straighten the vehicle back up but I can actually envision

the car taking over. Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. I think it's great. Anything

to avoid an accident in the further distant future I think they will eliminate traffic

signals, traffic lights and the reason for that is because we won't need them. The cars

will communicate with each other and you'll have multiple cars pull up to a four way stop

and whichever one got there first will get to go first. The others will hold back. You'll

have to worry about somebody running a red light because you won't be able to. The cars

won't let you and that will be government mandated folks. So if you're driving an old

car it's going to age out. You're going to have to park it at the house, put it up on

blocks, make some yard art out of it. I don't know. Put some geraniums in it. Just fill

it full of dirt. Maybe put a potted plants all around it. Maybe some ceramic ducks would

look good. One of those little frogs on a bench holding an umbrella. I really like that one.

Yeah, that's going to be the only use for your older vehicle because the government

is not going to let you drive it on the roads anymore. And that may be the case for vintage

cars. I'm looking at right outside my window is my 57 Chevy. They may not be allowed on

the roads. Have to trailer them around to car shows. Speaking of car shows, I'm getting

ready to fire up my second Saturday cars and coffee events again. When are they? Every

second Saturday. That's why I called it second Saturday cars and coffee. And this year we're

going to do some really interesting things. We're going to invite groups of people who

all love the same thing. Like we're going to have a Bronco Saturday for Bronco Saturday,

a Jeep Saturday, a two door sports car Saturday. Of course, everybody else is welcome to come

to but those are going to be the features. And that's a lot of fun. You know, that's

one of the coolest things that I've done in my career is that second Saturday cars and

coffee. I love cars and coffee events because they're not like a car show. It's just people

show up at like 730. When it's the cooler weather, we get the solo stove out, set it

up right there in the middle of the parking lot. And people just love the coffee from

the creamy cup and also the donuts that I'm so willingly provide whole wheat donuts.

I'm kidding. So that's a great event. If you have cars and coffee event around where you

live, go. You don't have to own a special car to go. You can go and look at all these

cars, but it's not like a formal car show where, you know, they have judges and things

like that. They start at 730 and ended about 1130. Everybody just goes off and enjoys the

rest of their Saturday. So that's just one of the extracurricular activities that we

do with my car dealerships among many others. Okay, let's get back on track here. So we

looked at the future. Those are the only things that I can see on the near horizon. I don't

think we're ready to go to different types of tires. You know, they were going to eliminate

all normal tires that have air in them. They were going to go with these things called

twills. I think Mercedes tested them. So it's got tread like a tire just doesn't have

any air in it. It's got these plastic, I guess they're plastic spokes that are real tightly

wound together and they provide the same level of flexibility that you get with a tire. There's

really no wheel. The twill is a tire and a wheel. Well, that was an innovation that came

out about 15 years ago and it's never hit the market. Well, it has. It's on lawnmowers.

You may have seen some lawnmowers going around with twills on them. So you know, some of

these brilliant ideas that they come out with to really radically change the industry. They

just don't pan out. You know who I think killed the twill? I think the tire companies did

because according to what I understood, the twills would last longer than just a regular

tire. I bet the wheel industry didn't like them much either. Okay, so let's talk about

the last 30 years and who are the biggest winners? You know, sometimes that tells you

what the technology is going to be in the subsequent decade, right? So the biggest winners

30 years ago, the SUV revolution. You remember that one? You know who really kicked that

off better than anybody else turned the SUV into something a family would use. That's

the Lexus RX, the Tahoe Chevrolet Tahoe, the Ford Bronco, the full size Bronco. But they

won because they replaced the family sedan and the station wagon. People saw them as

an alternative. Families wanted the higher seat height. They like that. They felt like

they were safer even though the higher center of gravity probably made them less safe. And

I think buyers discovered that trucks can ride good. You know, they found ways to put

independent suspensions on full size trucks and big SUVs. And so they actually ride better.

And you know, dealers really liked them because they sold like hotcakes. The Ford Explorer

probably alone killed the station wagon market altogether. So you can thank Ford for that.

I've been looking for a nice station wagon lately. If anybody knows anybody that has

a nice, I'd like to have a early 70s, late 60s Volvo 240 station wagon. I just love boxes.

I don't know why. Okay, so another really big trend in the last 30 years was the hybrid revolution.

We talked about some of that. Of course, Toyota Prius was the was the king. Globally,

they started selling those things in 1997. In 2004, it hit the United States. You know,

it really wasn't faster. It wasn't prettier for sure. It was not cheaper. But it signaled kind

of an environmental virtue. People liked it. For that reason, they also liked it because

it got, you know, 30% better fuel economy. So customers sometimes buy a message. You know,

the Prius was a message. I love trees. I love green things. I love my world. And so people,

when they were driving to Prius, they could look at those people driving those big SUVs and just

give them the stink eye. And I think that's the number one reason why people with big SUVs started

using deep tinted windows is so that they could not be seen by people driving Priuses.

That's just a theory. Okay, the luxury SUV. So you had the SUV explosion. Now you had the luxury

SUV explosion. And this was primarily the territory of Lexus, the Cadillac Escalade.

What else? Lincoln Navigator. And so status. People buy for status. Why would somebody go out and

buy an Escalade, especially a black Escalade? Because they think it makes them look cool.

To me, that's the only reason. Otherwise, they buy a Chevy Suburban. If they don't care what it looks

like, they could actually spend 30 or $40,000 less for a Suburban or a Tahoe. But no, they got to

have a black Escalade. They want to be like a gangster rapper, I guess. Is that judgmental?

Yes, it is. Okay, I'm gonna take my last break. I'll be back here in just a minute.

Okay, I am back. You know, I think the biggest thing that nobody saw coming, not even car makers,

was when the truck became a daily driver. When did that happen?

It happened sometime around 1993, because I believe that's when Chevrolet

and Ford came out with the extended cab pickup truck. The next phase was an extended cab pickup

truck that had little miniature doors that would open up. And they put it on one side.

Well, nope, they had another one on the other side. Then it became a daily driver. It became

something that dad or grandpa could take the kids to school or pick them up.

Could go get groceries. Because before, see, if he had just had a regular cab,

he could use that as an excuse. It won't handle all the groceries.

So no more excuses. Pop, pop, you've got to go to the grocery store.

And so, and plus they got to where they rode so much better and came out with all these

beautiful colors. Back in the 70s, when I first got into the car business, the only people that

drove pickup trucks were farmers, people that did construction, people that worked with their trucks.

Very few people used it as a daily driver. There were some, of course, but it just wasn't a big

part of the market. And then when they decided to come out with the crew cab, now the crew cab

had been out since the 50s when they had vehicles that were used in construction, but they were

only for for commercial use. They weren't for just everyday folks. But when they put four doors on

trucks and it filtered down to the midsize trucks and the small trucks, then it just completely

flipped the market. The only thing that I'd drive, well occasionally I'll grab something else just

for the fun of it, but 99% of the time I'm driving my F-150. And I've thought about changing. I've

tried. I've jumped in a Ford Bronco thinking, well, you know, that looks cool. I think I'll drive one

of those for a while. I take it to lunch, take it home overnight. Nope. Doesn't drive near as good

as this F-150. Why would I want to change? You know, it's something you need to do and think about.

See, I can just drive my F-150 and come to work. If I'm tired of it, I'll just turn it in,

sell it, grab something else. You can't do that. Your decisions are more longer term, right?

And so you better make a wise decision. That's why you need to take them home overnight if the

dealer will let you or grab it in the morning, test drive it all day. Now, if you're in a large city,

these really large dealerships, they don't like that because there's too many crooks out there.

But if you're in a smaller town and you go to a privately owned dealership like mine,

not some big corporate entity owns it, then they'll probably let you keep it overnight.

I've got a guy out in an Explorer right now and I've got a lady coming tomorrow that's going,

to test drive a pathfinder. Can I keep it overnight? Yes, you can. Why? Because I own the place.

Well, folks, thanks for indulging me like you do. I appreciate the fact that I get so many text

messages and emails and letters and people come down here and buy cars and that's wonderful.

That's not why I do this. I do this so that I can take something that I know a lot about

and help a bunch of people that I'll never meet. And that's where I get my reward. Well,

thanks again. Call me 423-552-2020 or send me a text and we'll solve your automotive problem.

I'll see you next time.

Predicting the next 10-20 years for EVs, Hybrids and Gas engines using the last 30 years as a guide

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