S6E83 – 2025 Auto Year in Review: Tariffs, Chinese EVs, BYD Dominance & Real Consumer Impacts – AI SuperGrok Speaks

Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.

Zoe, this thing weighs a ton.

Drusky, lift with your legs, man.

Santa, Santa, did you get my letter?

He's talking to you, Bridges.

I'm not that.

Of course he did. Right, Santa?

You know, my elf Drusky here, he handles the nice list.

And, Elf, I'm 6'3".

What everyone wants is iPhone 17.

And at T-Mobile, you can get it on them.

That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies.

Right, Mrs. Claus?

I'm Mrs. Claus's much younger sister.

And at T-Mobile, there's no trade-in needed when you switch,

so you can keep your old phone.

Or give it as a gift.

And the best part?

You can make the switch to T-Mobile from your phone in just 15 minutes.

Guys, my side of the tree is slipping.

Timber!

The holidays are better at T-Mobile.

Switch in just 15 minutes and get iPhone 17 on us with no trade-in needed.

This episode is sponsored by Morgan Stanley's Thoughts on the Market.

It can be difficult to stay up to date on the financial market

in today's ever-changing environment.

With so much commentary at any given moment,

it's hard to cut through the noise to gain quality, actionable insights.

Morgan Stanley is here to help with their podcast Thoughts on the Market.

Thoughts on the Market is your daily market snapshot,

covering trends across the global investment landscape

and offering perspectives from Morgan Stanley's leading economists and strategists.

It's one of the only daily podcasts providing real-time commentary

from a financial institution on the day's biggest questions and topics.

And with most episodes under five minutes long,

market clarity can fit seamlessly into your daily routine.

Staying informed has never been easier.

Listen and subscribe to Thoughts on the Market wherever you get your podcasts.

So for my last episode of 2025,

since I changed the name of my podcast to the AI auto podcast,

I'm interviewing artificial intelligence to give me the answers

about the most interesting stories in 2025 and what should we expect for 2026.

Here it is, listen up.

What was the most important story in the automotive industry around the world in 2025?

Oh man, hands down, the biggest story in autos this year

has been the massive slowdown and EV demand worldwide.

Sales growth tanked to single digits,

with incentives fading, prices staying high, and people flocking to hybrids.

Car makers like Ford and GM had to scramble,

delaying factories, cutting budgets,

whole electrification push, total rethink.

Do you think the BYD that Chinese car maker is going to surpass Tesla

around the world in 2026?

Yeah, I do. It's looking super likely.

BYD is already crushing it with over 2 million EV and hybrid sales through November,

while Tesla's at about 1.65 million.

Analysts are betting they'll officially top Tesla's total by year's end,

and with their export push and cheaper models,

2026 should seal the deal globally.

Tesla's got the brand, but BYD's volume is unstoppable.

Why is that? Why is BYD more advanced than Tesla and any other car manufacturers?

Nah, I wouldn't say BYD's straight up more advanced than Tesla across the board.

They're neck and neck in a lot of tech,

but BYD's killing it on scale and smarts that make them unstoppable.

Tesla's still the king of wild stuff like full self-driving

and that crazy efficient 4680 battery tech.

Plus, they're supercharger networks of beast, but BYD, they're ahead in vertical integration.

They make their own blades, batteries that are safer, cheaper,

and pack more punch without the fire risks.

They've got killer cost controls, cranking out cars for half the price,

which lets them flood markets from Europe to Southeast Asia.

In their hybrid game, Tesla doesn't even play there,

but BYD's plug-ins are bridging the gap for folks not ready for full EV.

It's that combo of affordable volume and solid engineering

that's gotten poised to lap Tesla in sales by year's end.

Other makers like VW or GM are playing catch-up on batteries and supply chains.

BYD's just built different from the ground up.

Are there any other Chinese brands that we should pay attention in 2026?

Yeah, totally. China's cranking out some heavy hitters.

Keep an eye on Geely's Zeekra line.

Their premium EVs are sleek and fast charging, already snagging deals in Europe.

Sherry's Omada and JCUSub brands are popping up everywhere

with affordable SUVs that punch way above their price.

Expanding smart tech like that fancy voice assistant

could steal some Tesla vibes in the US.

And Neo's battery swap stations are a game-changer for long-haul folks.

They're all riding that wave of cheap, high-tech rides that could shake things up big time.

Do you think that the US brands like General Motors or Ford Motor Company

are gonna catch up with the Chinese anytime soon or in 2026?

Nah, honestly, not in 2026.

GM and Ford are hustling with stuff like Ultium batteries and F-150 lightings,

but they're way behind on global scale.

Detroit's barely scraping 5% of the EV pie right now,

while Chinese brands like BYD and Geely are gobbling up 18% in Europe alone

and exploding in Asia.

Tariffs might slow the imports here, but without massive subsidies or speedier factories,

the gap's only widening.

They're pivoting to hybrids to stay afloat,

which buys time but doesn't close the race.

Long term, maybe.

But next year, dream on.

Are there any 2026 models from GM or Ford

or the Stellantis Group that catch your attention for 2026?

Oh yeah, a few that stand out.

From GM, the 2026 Chevy Silverado EV RST is back with a beefed-up range

over 400 miles now and faster charging, finally making it a real road trip beast.

Ford's dropping the Mustang Raptor, this wild off-road pony car

with massive tires and suspension tweaks.

It's going to turn heads at the track.

And Stellantis, that new Jeep Comanche midsize pickup, has me hooked.

Hybrid powertrain, rugged vibes, and it's hitting markets early in the year.

Solid plays to fight back on the EV hybrid front.

What do you think about the Jeep Weekend, the electric model from Jeep for 2026?

Oh yeah, Jeep stacking up some gems for 2026.

The Cherokees roaring back with a slick hybrid setup,

a 1.6-liter turbo four paired with electric motors for killer efficiency and off-road grunt,

plus sharper styling that screams adventure.

Grand Cherokees got that new 2.0-liter Hurricane turbo engine,

pumping out serious power while keeping it family-friendly.

And the Wrangler? White-cap additions got fresh coastal vibes with upgraded suspension and tech,

while the Recon EV's this boxy beast of an electric off-roader, ready to rip trails without a drop of gas.

Early drops say they're hitting dealers soon. Total game changers for the lineup.

What do you think about American brands like Rivian and Lucid for 2026 and beyond,

especially competing with the Chinese brands?

Rivian and Lucid? Man, they're the scrappy underdogs in this EV brawl.

And I dig their grit, but stacking up against the Chinese juggernauts like BYD or Geely in 2026,

it's going to be a bloodbath. They're fighting with premium punches, not volume haymakers.

Rivian's R2 crossover hits next year at around 45 grand,

snagging that Tesla Model Y crowd with killer off-road vibes and now NACS charging baked in.

But their deliveries dipped 12% this quarter, and they're staring down billions in losses.

CEOs straight up begging for tariffs to block those cheap Chinese imports,

because without them, Rivian's scalability just ain't there yet.

Long-term though, if they nail production ramps and snag more Amazon deals,

they could carve out a solid US niche. Beyond 2026, watch for that R3 hatchback to spice things up.

Lucid's even more baller on the luxury end.

Their Gravity SUV just snagged Car and Driver's 10 best nod with 400 plus mile range that's nuts,

and they're teasing three mid-size EVs starting at 50 grand to chase Model Y buyers.

Efficiency is their secret sauce, like 500 miles per charge on some models, but they're torching cash too,

and global reach barely a blip outside Saudi ties.

Against China's flood of affordable tech wizards, Lucid's betting on Saudi cash and elite rides to survive,

not mass market muscle. By 2027 or so, if they hit volume, they might steal some premium thunder.

But 2026 feels like hold the line here. Rooting for them though, America needs these wildcards.

Is the Lucid Gravity Grand Touring a good deal compared to other models,

especially from Mercedes-Benz or Audi competitors?

Oh yeah, the Lucid Gravity Grand Touring is a steal in this luxury EV SUV ring.

Starts around 95 grand, packs a 450 mile range, 500 horsepower for 0-60 in like 4 seconds,

and that insane efficiency Lucid's famous for.

Compared to Mercedes EQS 550-formatic at 112 grand with just 300 miles and slower pep,

or Audi's Q8 e-tron kicking off at 75k but topping out at 300 miles with less power,

gravity smokes them on range and value, especially if you're chasing that long haul luxury without the Benz badge premium.

Only catch is Lucid's dealer network's tiny, but man, it's a beast on paper.

What about more affordable EV options for the US consumers, even without the Chinese models?

Oh yeah, for US folks hunting affordable EVs under 40 grand, skipping the Chinese stuff,

there's some solid homegrown and allied options rolling out in 2026 that'll make ditching gas easier.

Chevy's Equinox EV LT starts at 35k with a solid 260 miles of range and that zippy ultium setup,

perfect daily driver without breaking the bank.

Nissan's Leaf S Plus is your budget king at 31 grand, the range tops out at 212 miles,

but hey, it's reliable and everywhere.

Hyundai's Kona Electric hits 34k with 250 miles and snappy handling,

while their Ionic 5 base is pushing 38k for 300 miles, killer value there.

Fiat's 500e is a fun city zip at 32 grand, super compact.

And if you're eyeing hybrids as a bridge, Ford's escape PH EVs around 33k.

With incentives, these could drop even lower, definitely worth a test drive to beat the pump prices.

Are the tariffs really helping the US consumers? Are the cars getting cheaper with the tariffs or not?

Nah, honestly, the tariffs aren't helping US consumers much right now.

They're more of a shield for domestic makers than a price cut.

Those steep duties on Chinese EVs, like the 100% ones, keep cheap imports out,

but it means no flood of affordable options here, so overall car prices haven't dropped.

Average new vehicle transaction prices actually crept up to around 49 grand this year,

with tariffs adding anywhere from 2 grand to 12 grand on imported or parts heavy models.

EVs held steadier thanks to incentives, but even those are fading.

End of the day, it's protecting jobs at Ford and GM, but your wallet, not feeling the love,

might even sting more in 26 if supply chains stay tangled.

So there is a ban for Chinese cars, but the Geely Group owns Volvo and Polestar,

and they are selling Chinese cars here in the US, is that right?

Kinda sorta. There's no full-on ban on Chinese cars, but sky-high tariffs,

like over 100% on Chinese-made EVs, make them basically impossible to sell profitably here.

Geely owning Volvo and Polestar? Yeah, that's the twist.

They're Swedish brands at heart, so US-built or European-built models,

like the Polestar 3 from South Carolina or Volvo EX90 from Georgia, dodge those killer duties and sell fine.

But straight from China stuff, like the Polestar 2 or EX30, tariffs in Nukedom,

Polestar yanked the two from US sales earlier this year, and Volvo's shifting production to skirt the hit.

So no flood of cheap Geely EVs, but their premium arms are still in the game.

So is there some level of hypocrisy from the American companies that build cars in China,

like General Motors and Ford, and they sell some of them in Latin America,

and even Ford sells the Lincoln here in the US? So what's the deal there?

Why are American companies building cars in China and even selling them here?

Yeah, it's a fair point on the hypocrisy angle.

US companies like GM and Ford bash Chinese trade practices while cashing in on them.

The deal boils down to cold economics. China's got dirt-cheap labor, fewer regs,

and a massive supply chain that slashes costs.

Building there lets them crank out affordable cars for export, dodging pricier US wages and tariffs on raw materials.

For Latin America, GM and Ford ship tons of stuff from Chinese plants.

Think Buick's and Ford's tailored for those markets, because it's cheaper than routing from Detroit.

And yep, even here in the States, Ford's importing the entire Lincoln Nautilus lineup from a joint plant with Chang'an in China since last year.

They shuffled production to keep costs down after killing off the old US Canada setup.

No big switch planned, even with tariffs biting. It's all about the bottom line man, profits over patriotism, at least for now.

What do you think? Should we slap on more tariffs to force them home?

So is the US doing the right thing for the brands or for the consumers?

Man, it's a mixed bag, but I'd say the US is leaning way harder into protecting brands than helping consumers right now.

Those 25% tariffs on imports are shielding Detroit jobs and pumping billions into domestic factories.

GM and Ford are ramping up EV plants, thanks to it.

But for you and me, prices are up 13% on average, sales are dipping, and no cheap Chinese EVs means we're stuck paying premium for the same old rides.

Short-term win for the industry, but consumers get the bill, hoping it flips to real competition soon.

What about the Koreans? The Hyundai Group is always putting really good cars and they are building new factories here in the US.

Are they going to move ahead the American brands?

Oh yeah, the Koreans. Hyundai Group, that's Hyundai and Kia, are straight up killing it, and yeah, I think they're going to leapfrog the American brands like GM and Ford and EVs by 2026.

They've got that Georgia mega factory cranking out Ionic Fives and EVs since early this year, dodging tariffs and pumping local jobs while their US EV sales spiked 153% in September alone, even as overall growth cooled.

Projections say Hyundai and Kia could snag like 10% of the US EV pie next year, while GM and Ford are stuck in the mud at around 5-7% each, scrambling with hybrid pivots.

Their rides are just more bang for the buck, cheaper, longer range, slicker tech, and with hybrids flying off lots, they're bridging the gap Detroit can't touch yet.

Americans are loving it. Hyundai's overall market share jumped with the big dogs this year. Watch them dominate.

What about Scout, the new brand from the Volkswagen Group that is going to start building the legendary SUVs and pickup trucks from Harvester International brand? Are they going to be successful?

Oh yeah, Scout Motors. That VW Group's revival of the old international Harvester Scout legend is super intriguing, aiming to drop boxy electric SUVs like the Traveller and Terra pickup that scream retro rugged vibes with modern EV guts.

They're building a massive factory in South Carolina, and as of late November, pre-production's kicking off next year for testing, but full assembly won't hit until late 2027, pushing deliveries to early 2028 models.

Priced around 60 grand with over 300 miles range, optional range extender hybrids, and off-road chops to rival Rivian or Ford's F-150 Lightning.

Successful? Man, it's a coin flip. They've got VW's deep pockets and that nostalgia factor pulling reservations, but the EV slowdowns brutal, and some folks are griping the prices are too steep for the weight.

If they nail the build quality and snag those adventure crowds, yeah, they could carve out a solid niche against the Chinese flood. Fingers crossed, I'd love to see these beasts rip trails.

So, in general, what's your prediction for 2026 for the US consumer about the automotive industry?

Thank you, that was very informative. Happy 2026.

You're welcome. Happy 2026.

The number of ETFs are subject to a transaction-based service fee of $100. See full list of Fidelity.com slash commissions. Fidelity Broken Services LLC member NYSE SIPC.

You know, AT&T thinks that listening to a loved one's voice can change everything. And you, who loves podcasts, know it's like that.

Listening to someone we love is unique. That's why we keep their messages. They mean a lot, right?

For me, if I need to cheer up at parties, it's here to call.

Listening to their voice feels like being at home. And if I need to tell someone, I'll call Eric. He's my best friend.

Listening to him is like a relief I didn't know I needed.

AT&T knows that these parties are perfect to share your voice. If you've been calling someone for a long time, it's time.

Because more than a conversation, it's your chance to say something they'll always remember.

In estas fiestas, comparte amor con una llamada. Felices fiestas te desea, AT&T. Conectar lo cambia todo.

S6E83 – 2025 Auto Year in Review: Tariffs, Chinese EVs, BYD Dominance & Real Consumer Impacts – AI SuperGrok Speaks

About this episode

Mercedes EQS 550 4MATIC

Request an Explanation

Want to learn more?

Help improve this episode

More from AI Auto Podcast