They’re talking about the betting odds for the Dover All-Star Race and what kinds of bets you can place. The show explains who the favorites are and the reasons behind those odds.
A head-to-head bet is basically a “who finishes better?” wager between two drivers. Instead of betting the winner outright, you’re picking which of two people will place higher.
An exhibition race is a special NASCAR event that doesn’t work like the regular points races. Since it’s different, there are usually fewer betting options compared with a normal points race.
The “next gen car” is NASCAR’s newer race-car design. When they mention it, they’re saying how someone has done using the newer car rules, not the older ones.
“Overtime” means the race didn’t end when it was supposed to, so they kept going to finish under better racing conditions. If rain delayed it, teams also had to adjust their strategy for the restart.
In NASCAR, the crew chief is the team’s main strategist. They decide things like when to pit and how to adjust the car so it drives better during the race.
A pit stop is when the car pulls into the pits during the race to get service. Teams use it to refuel and change tires, and when they do it can make a big difference.
The all-star vote is how fans help pick which drivers get into the All-Star Race. So even if someone didn’t qualify the usual way, fan support can still get them in.
“Crashing out on lap” means the driver wrecks and has to stop racing before the race is over. If it happens early, they usually can’t score the finish you’re betting on.
“Gen six” is NASCAR’s rules-era for the race car design. Different rule packages can change how competitive and unpredictable the racing feels.
Term
550
Here “550” is NASCAR shorthand for a specific car/race configuration number. The host is saying that fans didn’t like how racing turned out when that setup was used.
A late caution is when the race slows down with a yellow flag near the end. Teams often use it to make a last-minute pit stop, and the restart can change who’s leading.
NASCAR stages are race segments that break the event into parts, often with points awarded at the end of each stage. Stage lengths can affect tire wear, fuel planning, and whether teams push hard early or save resources for later.
Fuel strategy is the plan for when to stop for gas and how much to carry. The goal is to avoid running out while spending as little time as possible in the pits.
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Hello everybody and welcome into Through the Gears for this week's episode before the
2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover.
Another new venue for the exhibition event.
I am Michael Belfemini and back with it again solo after last week.
A little technical difficulties couldn't get that episode out but I will promise you that
I did pick SVG to win but it's not that impressive because it just seems like that is the most
common automatic winner on these road courses these days.
But SVG got the win, things went relatively smoothly, McDowell finishing second, he was
another contender, Almedinger top 10, Zilch probably would have finished top 10 if not
for that tire going down late so it was pretty straightforward and then the race before
that was Texas, Chase Elliott won that one and he wasn't really that big of a favorite
pick but now it's on to the All-Star Race before we get back into the regular season
at the Coca-Cola 600 next week and this Dover All-Star Race, very unique, very new format
with yet another change, I mean it just seems like every year we're switching stuff up
with this format and still a million dollar prize going from North Wilkesboro over to
Dover, no points raised at Dover this year and I know the future of the track has been
up in the air but hopefully there will be some racing there in the near future for the
Northeast fans like myself, I'm going to be there on Sunday as a fan but this format is
going to have well the qualifying is going to be that pit crew challenge where you have
a full lap around the track and then the second lap you're going to make a stop and then race
another lap and that whole time combined will start the lineup and then instead of an open
race the full field is going to take the green for a 75 lap sprint as it's described on NASCAR
website, the race starts at 1pm on Sunday and then the second segment will be an inverse of
the first segment's results, another 75 lap dash which sets up a 200 lap finale, the All-Star
Race which consists of 26 drivers and that includes 25 and 26 Cup Series race winners,
former Cup Series champions, a fan vote winner and then the remaining drivers that are based on
their combined finishing positions in the first two segments so did you get all that? Yeah it's
a lot and that's the way these formats have gone as of late but trying something new hopefully could
bring some some some butts in the seats at Dover and hopefully prove that they deserve
a points race forever really I hope because I feel like Dover's filled up pretty well,
I've gone the last two years and I'm hoping that we have a big variety of tracks and Dover has
been a mainstay on schedule for a really long time but now to get into the odds, now usually
for points races there's a lot more bets than what we have on Sunday going on BetMGM
and you usually have like head-to-head matchups so you know highest team or like highest
manufacturer finish but there are only two categories this week for bet slips, the race
winner of course and then finishing position top three top five top 10 there's not a whole lot of
side bets and stuff maybe just because it's the exhibition race not a whole lot to go after on
the outside but we need to dive into the facts of what these odds are and why they're like this and
if they're the smart bets so the betting favorite right now to win the all-star race is the guy who's
won the last two Dover races that is Denny Hamlin like I said I've gone to Dover the last two years
and I've seen him take the checker flag both times one was in April and one was in July and now
racing in May all over the schedule so Denny Hamlin defending two-time race winner at Dover
plus 450 then Kyle Larson plus 600 even though one he hasn't won a race since last May and two
he hasn't won at Dover since he was driving the 42 car before COVID happened back in the 42 car in
the Chase race in 2019 he's come close at Dover in the next gen car but he has never won at Dover
at Hendrick or in the next gen car but he does have some pretty good stats at Dover his career
average finish is 7.9 with nine top fives including the runner up in 2024 that was a pretty close one
to watch but he just couldn't get around Hamlin on the last run then he finished fourth last year
and then overtime rain delayed race that was a pretty crazy one then you have Chase Elliott plus 700
he's won twice this year and he's also won at Dover in the next gen car back in 2022 he also won
in 2018 back when they used to be having two races at Dover a year so Chase Elliott's been proven to
get it done at Dover and then Ryan Blaney plus 800 Chris Revelle plus 900 we spun out twice last year
he was in contention for the win late and then the points later he's won five times already this year
plus a thousand Tyler Redick I want to go back to Blaney for a second Blaney's never won at Dover
either but he's another guy that usually runs up front really almost everywhere we go and taking
a deeper look into his Dover results he has one top five and five top tens and in the next gen car
he's got three straight top tens he really didn't start putting together at Dover till the next
gen car third in 2023 seventh and eighth 24 and 25 so he's been putting up better runs he led 47 laps
in 2024 so I could see the the logic behind Blaney then you got Byron plus 1100 brisco plus 1200 who
finished second last year but that 19 team was running way better last year than they are right
now they are barely clinging on to a chase spot also like I said bell spun out there were some
cars that got wrecked so that's what helped out brisco last year tie gibbs also plus 1200
and then you get a host of our plus 1400 that kind of recency bias with how well he's been running
lately and then the odds drastically shoot up you guys got like you got guys like bowman
and then Lugano, Buescher, Chastain it gets a little harder cobush just won the truck race
earlier tonight plus 5000 obviously a massive winless streak so that's the the main winners there
with their odds then finish keeping position it's just the odds a little bit better
like hamlin goes from plus 450 to win to a plus 130 top three a minus 150 top 10 and minus 450
excuse me a minus 150 top five and a minus 450 top 10 so it's really the same order there really
isn't a whole lot to go off of for this race but when you look at what I think is going to happen
on sunday I think you could definitely look at the last few years of the results of the track but
just will the aggression pick up just knowing that it's a non-points race will crew chiefs take
bigger swings on their car setups because especially those first two stints that I don't think 75 laps
of the whole lot of Dover maybe only one pit stop maybe 75s enough to to stretch it all the way
through I don't know off the top of my head but the fuel window is usually a Dover but I wonder
what the tire wear is going to look like because yeah this is the first time Dover's running in May
since 2023 when it was ran on May 1st it's kind of it's a little later because it was early May
late April for the last three years and I got pushed to July last year and now it's mid-May so
we're going to see what this does and like I said last year the top five hamlin briscoe bowman
larson tie Gibbs so tie Gibbs might be a sneaky one just because he's been running so much better
this year um plus 1200 to win but I look at those side bets for Gibbs he's only he's plus 190 for a
top five and a top three he's plus 375 so I I wouldn't be opposed to sprinkling some money on on
tie Gibbs um going through the results the results for L8 6th wall 7th and then Blaney
busher keselowski three straight forwards so the forwards have not won at Dover since 2020 this so I
it really does not seem like Ford's going to get it done they've been quiet this year especially
the last few years it feels like Blaney's carrying that manufacturer on his back maybe
bushers consistent bushers amazing but he just does not win he's very very consistent but he just
has not had race winning speed usually but Blaney does because Legano's all over the place and
Cinderick's been better but he's still not there on that level of Blaney so I wouldn't expect a
four to win it's going to be either Chevy or Toyota and this kind of feels like the year of
Toyota and like I said the last three Dover races have been won by a Toyota so man it wouldn't
wouldn't shock me either if Redick just came in here and continued his amazing year and won the
all-star race plus a thousand good odds because Redick has not won it Dover in the cup series
and looking at his stats closer Redick has only two top tens and seven starts 14.1 average finish
and the next gen car he's finished 30th but that was with RCR and then in 23 11 equities 7th 11th and
12th with no lap slot he's never let a lap at Dover in a cup car but I feel like he's had better
success in the O'Reilly series at Dover he hasn't won there yet either but he has two top fives he
had a fifth and a third in 2018 and 2019 so it's surprising that Redick hasn't won here it kind of
feels like one of those tracks that it would play into his wheelhouse actually I stand correct he
has a truck win but that came back 11 years ago when he was driving for Brackie Zalowski so
this kind of seems like a track that would play into his into his wheelhouse
so Redick had plus a thousand that's another one you might want to look at as for a sneaky top
five I know all-star races it all matters about the winner million dollars but if you're just going
for bets since they're out here at the slip I think Bell would be an interesting one for top three
top five as long as they keep his car clean but he might be going more aggressive like I said the
winner matter winning this only thing that matters for the all-stars and he's trying to defend his
all-stars crown he won it last year at North Wilkesboro so he's locked in and then all the
race winners from last year and this year so you have guys like Josh Berry in the field and host
of our locked himself in a couple weeks ago uh Ty Gibbs locked himself in Austin Dillon's in it
and then you got the former champions too because Kyle Busch is in it
and then you got the all-star vote and you see these guys already posting on social media
trying to get their vote I saw some stuff from Zillich Eric Jones so we'll see how the finale
goes but you also got to watch out for guys missing the main event because if someone crashes out
on lap you know 55 you're you're done unless you get the fan vote but I think
even if you get the fan vote you have to keep your car in one piece so if a guy like Zillich is
running well but he racks and then he's all out of it and then you got to move on to the next guy
whether it's Gregson or Jones or Nemechek whoever so the all-stars always could get a little crazy
and I'm interested to see what happens at Dover um because all those years was at Charlotte um I
don't say it got stale but it got kind of it kind of got predictable because also it was the gen six
era and the racing you know they tried to all want an all bunch of different packages the 550 was
debuted there which gives NASCAR fans PTSD in here five those three numbers together um but
going back to the race on Sunday I would expect the Toyota's to control us um it would make sense
if Hamlin just gets back on top because it's been a little bit since Hamlin's had a race winning
car I mean you had Kansas he was close but other than that I mean he had his win at Las Vegas but
I feel like Hamlin's due for another win or it's going to be the guy that drives for him with
Raddick the Wallace could stick in there too but Raddick's just been way more fast this year um
he had that Kansas race I forgot he finished second at Texas too so he's been close this
like I said it kind of feels like he's due for a win um this year in the in the all stories to get
back to directory lane and um going down the list some more like some guys you would expect
to to contend but they just haven't had either the luck or the race winning speed or maybe both
because one guy when I think of unlucky but can win this race is Christopher Bell you know leading
a Texas gets clipped and wrecked Walken's gone he missed the bus stop and Talladega he wrecked
coming to the finish line like he he's had some really bad luck Bristol he spent on pit road and
got up out of the groove and smacked the wall into his day for the most part I think Bell
is a guy that could could win this race absolutely and then you guys like you got guys like I said
Briscoe who just has been all over the place and Byron plus 1100 these guys are usually contenders
especially last year looking at what they did last year but this year they just been they've
been off and guys like I said like Gibbs host of our busher they've kind of taken their spots because
bushers fifth in points and Gibbs is up there in points he's sixth host of our seventh you got all
these new faces up in the top 10 and will this translate to their their speed in the exhibition
race so we'll see what happens and maybe the veteran like Brad keselowski comes on in because
I mentioned RFK with busher but keselowski plus 5000 he only has one win at RFK but plus a thousand
top three in the top five odds he's plus 500 I feel like Brad could be another interesting
guy to watch or or priest because I feel like Dover is a track that that works for him with
his short track background but if I were to go with a bet slip you know for a race like this I feel
like parlays aren't that good because again the winners is what's most important but if I had to
make one like multi bet split maybe like a maybe Elliot keeps the good times rolling maybe Elliot
with a win and with a with a hamlin top three and then somebody sneaks in the top 10 that you
don't expect like maybe Kyle Busch keeps it going after the the truck win because I will say with
Andy Street he's he's had more speed so maybe get Kyle Busch in there for a top 10 get at
walking's gun last week maybe just throw something like that together but if you want to pick like
three or four drivers to win this race I'd say it's Elliott Hamlin Redick and I think the last
guide says either like Bell or Gibbs I don't think host of ours is going to get done that'd be really
cool but you know it would get some good publicity but I don't think it's going to happen I don't
think Spire is there yet to win at Dover Bowman statistically very good at Dover and it kind of
surprises me that it took me this long to talk about him but he has been good at Dover in the
old car in 2021 when Hendrick finished first through fourth but he was in the mix last year for
the Dover win and it's been almost two full years since he won a race but next gen stats at Dover
fifth eighth and third he missed the 2023 race with injury but his stats and that's a guy that I'd
keep an eye out for top for top five like top 10 the odds aren't that good he's minus odds actually
but top five plus 275 I feel like Bowman top five could be a good one but uh yeah just so many
different choices because it kind of just feels like everyone's going to gamble maybe get a late
caution and guys stay out and you have mixed up strategies it's it's going to be
tough to predict this all-star race because it's such a a new thing at Dover um this being only a
you know 300 and what is it 350 laps yeah 350 laps combined 200 lap main event so
it's going to be a bunch of runs and it kind of feels like two 75 laps stages but usually the
race is 400 laps along so it's a little shorter this year so we're going to see some differing
fuel strategies and just I'd love to be in a in a crew chief's meeting this this week
driver's meeting team meeting to see how these guys are going to crunch the numbers and try and
get an edge on the rest of the field because if you look at it from the outside it's going to be
the Toyotas and it's going to be the Hendrick Chevy's maybe again aspire car surprises like
we've talked about Daniel Suarez having a surprise year but he's plus 125 a 1200 1500 to win so no one
is looking at Suarez to win but again maybe he is a top five or a top 10 could be a good pick too
because he's got a race his way in but I'm expecting some some carnage maybe some tempers to flare
because remember what happened with Stenhouse and Kyle Busch like people aren't going to be playing
nice because it's the all-star race and there's no points on the line it's just all for the for the
win as I mentioned before but um like I said my bets to watch I'd say three or four guys to look
out for Elliott Hamlin the favorites then you go down the list yet like a bell or briscoe or
erratic I really like the Toyotas the sweet Gibbs um Bubba down there at plus 3500 to win it
I would look at those top Toyotas because they've shown the most speed plus maybe a Hendrick car
it'd be funny if Larson broke the the winless drought in an exhibition race uh because he's
won a champ you could say he's won a championship and he's won an exhibition race since his last
points win I would just add to the the chaos that is Kyle Larson over the last 12 months but
that's going to do it for through the gears this week I've been Michael Belfon your host
riding solo this week heading back into the points race next week at the Coca Cola 600 crown jewel
on prime last race on Fox for this year Mike Joy waving the green flag and I'll be there in the
stands to watch it and I'm looking forward to seeing it there and you keep the coverage
keeping on what's been going on all weekend long on frontstretch.com
About this episode
Dover’s 2026 All-Star Race gets a fresh format: pit crew challenge qualifying, two 75-lap segments, and a 200-lap finale that sets the starting lineup through combined results. Betting markets are limited to race winner and top finish props, with favorites shaped by recent Dover form and next-gen car performance. Hosts weigh strategy swings from non-points racing, possible late cautions, fuel windows, and May tire wear, while also calling out crash risk and manufacturer trends—especially Toyota speed.
For the first time, Dover Motor Speedway will host NASCAR's All-Star Race on Sunday, May 17, and once again, $1 million will be at stake.
Denny Hamlin won the Dover points races the last two seasons, so it is no surprise that he opens as the betting favorite at +450, according to BetMGM.
Despite his winless streak, reigning champion Kyle Larson has the second-best odds at +600. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott follows at +700, while Ryan Blaney has the best odds of any Ford driver at +800.
Points leader Tyler Reddick is +1,000 as he has never won a Cup race at Dover, Christopher Bell is slightly above him at +900.
Host Michael Bellifemini breaks down the field for Sunday's All-Star Race, going over the favorites and how the new format will impact the race.
Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts.
