DAILY: France Incentive Success, VW EV Sales Surge and Lucid Fire Software Team

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Ito hitting a million vehicles.

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Let's kick off with news about France building a market for EVs

among people who usually couldn't afford one.

It's called the social leasing scheme.

And it's a really interesting way of going about providing incentives.

And I mentioned this in its top of the podcast

because California just announced $200 million of a pot of money to help EVs.

But they haven't quite worked out or announced,

and maybe it's a work in progress, of how they're going to do it.

And I'm not a massive fan of, as they say, cash on the hood.

Just money off a car.

I just think it politicizes EVs.

It gets other people's backs up while you're giving money off a car.

And the way France is doing it, or has done it a couple of times now,

social leasing was launched in 2024.

And it hit 50,000 contracts in the first six weeks.

And it used up the scheme.

Now a second round, relaunched last September,

reached the same 50,000 vehicle allocation

after about 41,500 applications in the first month.

And then it took another two and a half months to fill it this time.

A waiting list stands ready to replace any contracts that are cancelled

across both of the rounds.

100,000 low income households now drive electric.

They're running costs are down.

It's a new car.

It's more reliable.

Not going to break down all the time.

And if you can charge at home and you can charge overnight on peak,

on off-peak rate, you're saving a ton of money.

Exactly what lower income households need to get a leg up.

Often in rural areas where car use is hard to avoid.

Monthly leases in the second round range from either you paying 95 euros

or 195 euros.

With no down payment, the state applies a subsidy

of up to 7,000 euros per vehicle to cut the leasing cost.

That's down from the first round, which is 13,000 euros.

France also offers EV purchase grants up to 5,700 euros,

depending on income, if you want to buy not lease.

The scheme is explicit about who it helps.

Eligibility requires a taxable income of less than 16,300 euros per person

and specific commuting or driving needs.

The government sells it as a social justice

and ecological transition all rolled into one.

I completely agree.

This is a great way of doing it.

I've got some money off two cars.

The first two Renault Zoe's we bought, the UK still had grant money.

This would be back in the mid to late teens

when we first got into EVs.

I'm a rich guy, but we probably would have bought the cars anyway

if it hadn't been for the money off.

We knew what we were going to do.

We live a moderately comfortable lifestyle.

And there's many more people who have bought much nicer cars

with lots more money in the bank than me that got money off a car.

And they didn't need it.

But I do think that sometimes there's a whole bonus podcast in your feed

about the way the different countries have done it.

And so I like this way.

I like the way France are doing it.

The domestic industry gains.

You get more money off if you buy French made cars.

The Renault five is leading the pack with 11 and a half thousand orders this round.

Stellantis models account for about half the orders.

Yet the policy's future is unclear.

Unfortunately, round three of the social leasing has not been confirmed.

Germany's Social Democratic Party plans its own version from next year

with different subsidy levels and different conditions.

For now, France offers the clearest test of whether cheap leasing

turns low income drivers into early adopters.

Now, Volkswagen sold 983,100 battery electric vehicles last year.

That's up 32% on the bevs of 2024.

Yet total vehicle registrations were down at Volkswagen.

AVs are now 11% of the group.

Europe carries Volkswagen's EV ambitions,

taking 75% of BEV deliveries last year.

In the fourth quarter, Volkswagen sold 265,000 EVs worldwide.

But 220,000 of those 265 were all sold in Europe.

The only region doing big business for VW these days.

In America, full year EV sales rose to 72,000 units, up 45%.

In China, it's not so good.

VW EV sales collapsed from 28% of the group's global EV volume in 2024

to 11.7% last year.

Overall sales in China fell 8%.

They do good business in combustion cars, by the way.

Volkswagen still do okay.

Okay, they're in decline in China.

But Volkswagen blames slow adaption to a fast-moving Chinese market

and sharper competition.

It's turned to local software partners and local EV makers like FAW,

like XPung, and they plan to fit XPeng's autonomous driving software

to its Chinese VWs.

Globally, it's sunk about 12 billion euros into its software-arm carry ads.

You can argue amongst yourselves what they've got to show for that.

Now, BMW nudged global deliveries up a little bit.

Less than 1%.

Yet beneath the flat headline, you know where this is going.

EV sales did really well.

EVs rose 8.3% over the last year of BMW globally,

fully electric models reaching 442,000 sales worldwide.

Now, 18% of the BMW group, not too many of those will be Rolls Royces.

But the core brands are doing very, very well in Europe.

Their fully electric sales are up almost 30%,

where regulation and demand bite the hardest,

helping the company keep on track to meet their CO2 targets.

What about Mini?

Well, Mini sold 105,000 fully electric cars last year.

That's a record for the brand, and an 87.9% jump on the previous year.

Battery-powered models make up more than a third of the global vehicle sales at Mini now,

and Mini sits at the cheaper end of the portfolio,

admittedly within BMW, where volume and price matter a little bit more.

Demand runs deepest in some of the more advanced EV markets.

In China, Netherlands, Turkey, and Sweden,

more than half of Mini's sales are fully electric now.

Mini's chief credits the appealing model family and refresh design.

Updates include the new Cooper and Cooper S,

more tweaks due this year with digital key arriving.

Pricing also aims for scale.

Here in Europe, Mini's EV range starts at 32,000 euros,

all the way up to 41,000 euros for models like the Mini Cooper Electric

and the Mini Aesman Electric.

The Mini Cooper Electric starts at just 31,500 if it has the 49.2 kWh battery,

which gives a WLTP range of 250 miles or 400Ks.

The firm's compact electric SUV shaped vehicle helped drive their success.

Let's talk Lucid.

Lucid's new Gravity SUV reached customers with plenty wrong malfunctioning screens and a key fob.

So unreliable that some drivers couldn't start the car.

Stories of drivers of the gravity saying,

oh, you just shake the key a little bit,

or you get outside and lock the car,

wait for the whole thing to shut itself down after 10 minutes, and try again.

Yeah, that wouldn't go down with my wife very well.

Insurium boss Mark Winterhoff says they replaced much of their software leadership team

and expects the remaining glitches to vanish by the end of January or March at the latest.

The launch matters.

Gravity was meant to carry Lucid beyond its original Lucid Air sedan

and anchor the brand in the very profitable electric SUV segment.

It will also serve as a driverless taxi on Uber's network,

which makes software a safety issue as well as a comfort one for private buyers.

Yet the car's hardware is strong.

We always say the engineering at Lucid's really good.

Class-leading range, class-leading efficiency, very fast charging.

That's a mix that should appeal to early adopters,

maybe some Tesla owners that have had a couple of Teslas,

maybe Model X over the years, and wants to make a change,

perhaps some, and they might want to go to a Lucid.

The problem is in the code that ties it all together, though.

Mr. Winterhoff claims the failures are embarrassing

and blames the growing complexity of the software stack

that governs everything from screens to powertrain.

He's not wrong, but that's the game they chose to play.

That's been where we are for a really long time now.

Since launch, Lucid has pushed many over-the-air updates.

The latest one reportedly fixes the worst of the key fob detections

and the unlocking woes.

Another update due at the end of January,

and a further one in two months will clear up the remaining bugs.

The key fob mostly works now,

owners say, but still drains the battery really quickly

as it keeps pinging the car.

An upcoming patch, we'll sort that out.

But Lucid's not alone.

Software headaches dog both upstarts and established car makers.

But for a young brand that trades on being technically savvy,

the test is whether its refreshed software team

can now make the gravity known for its range and charging speeds

rather than blank screens and dead fobs.

So maybe not the problems that Fisca had,

which were extensive and they didn't have the time to fix those

before it all went pear-shaped.

But Lucid have a big job to do.

Right, one more Lucid story,

and then we'll get on to some more stuff in the news today as well,

but I'll take a quick break and back in a mow.

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Welcome back to the podcast.

Lucid's Gravity is a bit of a beast.

450 miles of EPA range, 828 horsepower, 60 miles an hour in 3.3 seconds.

It's not just a great EV.

The Gravity's a great car, regardless of powertrain.

So we should be talking about the benefits of driving EVs.

In those terms, not about saving polar bears, says the Lucid boss.

Look, it's true that early EVs sold virtue.

They pushed emissions free and responsibility with the planet,

often at the expense of speed and flair.

The Tesla Model S broke the mold.

It rewrote the script by matching and at times beating any luxury saloon

that wished to take it on on the drag strip.

Plenty of YouTube videos 10 years ago where people just doing launches

and having the reactions of their passengers.

But look, it captivated so many people,

the Tesla rewrote the real book on what an EV could be.

At CES this year though, Mark Winterhoff attacked the industry's

reliance still on sustainability slogans.

He said firms should stop mentioning the environment

and instead push why EVs are so good.

Instant talk, loads of refinement, usable range.

He argues that Lucid's Gravity should not be judged against other EVs

but judge it against all cars, any high end luxury vehicle.

Because it can outrun them and it'll outlast it on a tank or a charge.

And many such SUVs burn more fuel.

People don't talk about fuel tanks, they're often quite small on some vehicles

and you do have to stop quite a long time.

Before 450 miles, Mr. Winterhoff also disputes the idea

that petrol cars are more practical because you can refuel them faster.

Drivers seldom travel more than 400 miles in one go,

so rapid refueling matters less than many people assume.

Perceptions stay stuck in part because of legacy car makers

earning their best margins from big SUV petrol models and they play down EV advantages.

Misleading claims about battery life and the grid.

Linger helped by dealers who lack incentives to actually sell the things.

Let's move on.

New Jersey is putting nearly 32 million US dollars into electric school buses

and the charging for them as well, spreading the money across 16 counties.

The state will steer over 18 million dollars through its electric school bus grant program,

paying for 53 electric school buses and 41 fast charges for 14 different recipients.

A further 13.6 million from the charging grant program supports 26 projects.

Transport remains New Jersey's biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

EEP, a commissioner or environmental protection commissioner,

Sean Lattorette says the grants aim to cut emissions by swapping diesel school buses

for electric models and by tightening the public charging network.

OK, let's talk a little bit about China and India cutting their emissions.

Coal powered output.

And I mentioned this because it's one of the key things that somebody will say to you one day.

Oh, it's fine, you can drive an EV, but all you're doing is moving emissions

to a coal powered plant.

OK, well, that's been dealt with many times over the years as the grid cleans up.

So your driving gets cleaner.

So if you live in Norway where the electricity all comes from hydro,

then it's very clean to drive an EV.

And if you live not far away in Poland, it's a lot dirtier.

But getting cleaner, it's always good to have evidence when we say that.

Well, coal power output fell in China and India last year for the first time in 52 years.

India's coal generation dropped by 3 percent and China's was down by 1.6 percent.

China added over 300 gigawatts of solar and 100 gigawatts of wind last year,

setting new records at home and abroad.

Non fossil output in both China and India grew to meet the increase in electricity that was needed.

So no more coal and CO2 emissions were down.

In India, record clean energy growth met softer demand and milder weather.

Clean energy explained 44 percent of the cut in coal and gas use, milder weather,

and weaker demand also helped in the first 11 months of last year.

India added 35 gigawatts of solar, 6 gigawatts of wind,

and 3.5 gigawatts of hydro as the grid cleans up.

So every mile you drive gets cleaner.

And that's something that is baked in to driving a combustion car.

They are never going to get clean.

In fact, the engines get less efficient and they get worse as they age.

As you buy an EV, the more miles you drive, the more years tick by, the cleaner it gets.

Yet more evidence, the grids are cleaning up in some of the countries

where they have been the biggest emitters.

Now, a couple of Chinese cars to finish off with today.

First of all, more news about the Zika 7 GT in China.

This is the Zika 007, shaken not stirred.

Can't call it that when it comes over here.

So it's going to become the 7 GT.

It's an electric estate car, fastback wagon.

Call it what you will.

Arrives in July.

The online configurator is now live.

So I've talked about it a lot recently.

Won't bang that drum too loud.

But the segment has been thinly served, say Zika.

They've sold more than 640,000 vehicles globally since they launched in 2021.

Now they will bring not only the Zika 001, Zika X, and the Zika 7X to Western markets.

But now the 7 GT, designed and tuned for European roads, they say.

Built on Geely and Volvo's PMA2 Plus platform,

shared with the 7X.

800 volt architecture, 100 kilowatts battery on the big pack.

It charges in 13 minutes to 80 percent.

Railwheel drive, all-wheel drive DC fast charging.

I think peaking at 480 kilowatts on this.

And it starts at 47,990 euros in Germany at least.

Configurator now open.

Secondly, the Chinese would like you to very much have a look at their new global vehicle.

That is the refreshed P7 Plus.

X-Pung has bought the P7 Plus to Europe and it will be made in Europe.

Contract manufacturing by Magna in Austria.

It's a five meter long saloon aimed at families that want a design-led car.

But also don't worry about a prestige badge on the front.

Built on the firm's SEPA2 platform in three trims.

Railwheel drive, long range,

rear wheel drive, and all-wheel drive performance.

It starts at 46,000 euros.

Europe has plenty of premium EV saloons already.

But this offers a compelling mix of cabin space, fast charging,

relatively keen pricing.

So the lowest price is a 62 kilowatt hour pack.

And then the big pack is 75.

On the long range, rear wheel drive and performance as well.

Going for 530 kilometers of WLTP range on this.

It'll DC charge at 446 kilowatts, I know.

10 to 80 in 12 minutes.

It's silly.

And these cars that have been the preserve of Chinese buyers for so long

are now turning up this year.

Before the summer, over here as well.

The firm uses lithium-ion phosphate cells,

a little bit less energy density,

but lower cost and a bit more robust as well.

Loads of technology inside.

They say that it fits four adults in comfort.

2000 liters with the rear seats folded.

Loads of storage space, heated, ventilated.

Seats adaptive suspension vehicle to load.

X-Pung plans more models and its own charging infrastructure as well.

In Europe, if it can turn fast hardware

into aggressive charging specs at the right price,

we'll see if Europeans bite.

And that's your podcast for today.

Thanks to our premium partners,

National Car Charging on the US mainland and the Loha Charge in Hawaii.

And TestEV, Avalos trusted partner for independent EV battery health testing

in Australia and New Zealand.

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DAILY: France Incentive Success, VW EV Sales Surge and Lucid Fire Software Team

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