May 15th, 2026 | Toyota eyes $2B Texas plant; AutoPayPlus CEO on affordability
About this episode
Toyota is weighing a $2 billion Texas assembly plant near San Antonio, codenamed Project Orca, with an opening targeted for 2030. Subaru, meanwhile, is putting its electric vehicle plans on ice and shifting to hybrids and gas engines. The show also digs into affordability: AutoPay Plus CEO Robert Steenberg argues dealers shouldn’t rely on lower interest rates alone, and suggests aligning payment frequency with paychecks. Later, AAA research explains why cold weather can hit EV range hard, while hybrids can fare better.
Toyota is considering a new $2 billion assembly plant in Texas. Subaru puts its electric vehicle plans on ice and shifts focus back to internal combustion and hybrid cars. Plus, AutoPayPlus CEO Robert Steenbergh explains why he says lowering interest rates won’t solve the auto industry’s affordability problem.
AutoPay Plus
"Plus, AutoPay Plus CEO Robert Steenberg joins the show to talk about why dealers shouldn't account on lower interest rates to fix affordability issues."
AutoPay Plus is a business that works with car payments/financing. The CEO is arguing that dealers shouldn’t treat lower interest rates as the main way to make cars more affordable.
AutoPay Plus is a company that’s involved in dealer financing or payment solutions, and its CEO is discussing how affordability should be handled. In this segment, the company’s angle is that dealers shouldn’t rely on lower interest rates as a fix.
assembly plan
"Toyota is considering a new $2 billion assembly plan in Texas that's according to documents filed with the state. The project is codenamed Project Orca."
An assembly plan means a plan to build a factory for putting cars together. Here, it’s about Toyota potentially building a new plant in Texas that would employ people and produce vehicles.
An assembly plan refers to building or expanding a manufacturing facility where vehicles are assembled. In this context, Toyota’s proposed Texas project is described as an assembly plant that would create jobs and add a new US production site.
Toyota
"Toyota is considering a new $2 billion assembly plan in Texas that's according to documents filed with the state. The project is codenamed Project Orca."
Toyota is looking at building a new factory in Texas. The point is that Toyota’s existing US factories are already running near maximum, so adding more cars isn’t straightforward.
Toyota is considering a new US assembly plant in Texas, which would expand its manufacturing footprint. The segment also frames the decision around capacity—Toyota’s US plants are described as already operating at peak efficiency, leaving little room to add output.
peak efficiency
"Toyota's US plants are already running at peak efficiency. There is basically no room left to add new products or boost output."
Peak efficiency means the factories are already running as hard as they can. The show is saying Toyota doesn’t have much extra capacity to build more models.
Peak efficiency means factories are already operating at their maximum practical output with minimal slack. The segment uses this idea to explain why Toyota can’t easily add new products or boost production even if demand exists.
Ford Maverick
"..., like a compact pickup to compete with the Ford Maverick. There's just nowhere to build it."
The Ford Maverick is a small pickup truck. It’s built for people who want a truck bed for hauling, but don’t want a big, expensive truck. That’s why it comes up when talking about compact pickup options.
The Ford Maverick is a compact pickup truck designed to be smaller and more affordable than traditional full-size pickups. It’s often discussed because it brought the idea of a practical truck to buyers who want truck utility without the size and cost. In the podcast context, it’s referenced as a benchmark for what a compact pickup is meant to be.
Subaru
"Subaru is putting its electric vehicle plans on ice. The Japanese automaker will focus on hybrids and gas engines instead."
Subaru is changing course on EVs and will focus more on hybrid and gas-powered cars. The company had planned a new factory for EVs, but that factory would now make hybrids and other non-EV powertrains.
Subaru is described as pausing its electric vehicle plans and shifting focus to hybrids and gas engines. The segment mentions an in-house EV plant that was planned to open around 2028, but would now start up with hybrids and combustion engines instead.
electric vehicle plans
"Subaru is putting its electric vehicle plans on ice. The Japanese automaker will focus on hybrids and gas engines instead."
“Electric vehicle plans” means what a car company is planning to build for fully electric cars. In this story, Subaru is slowing that down and focusing on hybrids and gas cars instead.
“Electric vehicle plans” refers to a manufacturer’s strategy and production roadmap for battery-electric cars. Here, Subaru is delaying that roadmap and redirecting investment toward hybrids and gas engines.
hybrids
"The Japanese automaker will focus on hybrids and gas engines instead. Subaru had a brand new plant ready to go, set to open around 2028 to build its own in-house EVs."
Hybrids are cars that use both a gas engine and an electric motor. They’re often designed to improve efficiency compared with a purely gas car.
Hybrids are vehicles that use more than one power source—typically a gasoline engine plus an electric motor and battery. The segment uses hybrids as the alternative focus for Subaru after shelving its EV plans.
EV development
"CEO Asushi Osaki says the company is significantly reducing resources for EV development. And it's easy to see why."
“EV development” means working on making electric cars better and building new ones. If a company cuts back on it, it usually means they’re slowing down EV plans or updates.
“EV development” refers to the engineering work required to build and improve electric vehicles, including battery systems, electric drivetrains, thermal management, and software. When a company reduces resources for EV development, it typically signals a slowdown in new EV programs or upgrades.
US tariffs
"US tariffs just wiped out $1.42 billion in earnings. Plus the automaker took a $362 million charge on its EV investments."
Tariffs are extra taxes on imported products. For car companies, they can make cars and parts cost more, which can hurt profits.
Tariffs are taxes the government places on imported goods. In autos, tariffs can raise the cost of vehicles and parts, which can directly hit automaker earnings and investment decisions.
EV investments
"Plus the automaker took a $362 million charge on its EV investments. And Hyundai's rising sales are actually creating a problem for service departments."
“EV investments” are the resources a car company puts into making electric cars. A charge means the company is adjusting the financial value of those plans because results aren’t matching expectations.
“EV investments” are the money automakers spend on electrification—like new EV platforms, battery supply, manufacturing tooling, and R&D. A “charge” tied to EV investments usually means the company expects those investments to underperform or needs to write down costs.
service departments
"And Hyundai's rising sales are actually creating a problem for service departments. They just can't keep up with all the new work."
A service department is the part of a dealership that fixes cars and does maintenance. If lots of people buy cars at once, the shop can get too busy to handle everything quickly.
A dealership’s service department is where warranty work, maintenance, and repairs are performed. When sales surge faster than staffing and scheduling capacity, service departments can get overwhelmed, leading to longer wait times and reduced customer satisfaction.
engine recalls
"Massive engine recalls costing more than $5 billion and not enough technicians. The fix includes 150 mobile service vans hitting the road by year end, coaching 185 dealerships"
An engine recall means the car company found a problem that could be unsafe or illegal. They require repairs, and that takes time and trained technicians.
An engine recall is a safety or compliance action where an automaker asks owners to bring vehicles in (or have work done) because of a defect related to the engine or engine-related systems. Recalls can be expensive and labor-intensive, especially when they require specialized diagnosis or repairs.
mobile service vans
"The fix includes 150 mobile service vans hitting the road by year end, coaching 185 dealerships on efficiency and recruiting more techs."
Mobile service vans are like traveling repair shops. They help get maintenance or recall work done faster when regular dealerships are too busy.
Mobile service vans are service vehicles equipped to perform certain repairs or inspections at the customer’s location or at scheduled sites. They’re used to reduce bottlenecks when dealerships are short on technicians or when recall work is time-sensitive.
fuel economy
"It turns out hybrids lose fuel efficiency in extreme temperatures, just like EVs. A new AAA study found hybrids drop 23% of their fuel economy when it's 20 degrees and"
Fuel economy is how efficiently a car uses energy to go a certain distance. This segment says cold and hot weather can make hybrids use more energy than usual.
Fuel economy is how efficiently a vehicle converts energy into distance—typically measured as miles per gallon (MPG) for hybrids and gas cars. The segment highlights that extreme temperatures can reduce fuel economy for hybrids, similar to how EVs lose efficiency in cold.
AAA
"A new AAA study found hybrids drop 23% of their fuel economy when it's 20 degrees and 12% when it's 95 degrees."
AAA is a well-known U.S. organization for drivers that also does vehicle testing. Here, they’re providing study results about how cold and hot weather affect hybrid and EV efficiency.
AAA is a major U.S. automobile club that publishes driving and vehicle research, including fuel-economy and range testing. In this segment, AAA’s study is used as evidence for how temperature affects hybrid and EV efficiency.
range
"EVs take an even bigger hit in the cold, losing 36% of their range. Automotive News Deputy Editor Lindsey Van Hully wrote about it and joins me now."
For EVs, “range” means how many miles you can drive before the battery runs out. In cold weather, the battery doesn’t perform as well and the heater uses more power, so the range drops.
In EVs, “range” is how far the car can drive on a full charge under specific conditions. Cold weather can reduce range because batteries and power electronics work less efficiently, and heating the cabin uses extra energy.
engine waste heat
"And part of that, they said, is because hybrids also have the internal combustion as part of their design, and so therefore they can sort of capture heat that's generated as engine waste."
Engines create heat as a byproduct, and normally much of it is wasted. Hybrids can reuse some of that heat to help warm the cabin, which can be helpful in cold weather.
“Waste heat” is energy produced by an engine that would otherwise be lost to the environment. In hybrids, some of that heat can be captured and used for cabin heating or other thermal needs, which can help reduce how much additional energy the car must spend in cold weather.
internal combustion
"And part of that, they said, is because hybrids also have the internal combustion as part of their design..."
“Internal combustion” is the type of engine that burns fuel to make power. In a hybrid, that engine can also help with things like warming the car in cold weather.
“Internal combustion” refers to engines that burn fuel inside the engine to create motion. In hybrids, the internal combustion engine can contribute heat and energy, which can change how the vehicle performs in cold weather compared with a pure battery-electric car.
cabin comfort quickly vs maximizing efficiency
"So why do automakers prioritize getting the cabin comfortable quickly over maximizing efficiency?... but it does come at that trade-off of range."
This is the trade-off between getting the cabin comfortable right away and using energy efficiently. Heating or cooling the cabin quickly can cost energy, so you may not get as much driving range.
Automakers often prioritize fast cabin heating or cooling because drivers expect the car to feel comfortable immediately. That comfort usually requires extra energy, which can reduce efficiency and—on EVs—shorten range.
thermal management systems
"And so, a lot of that is part of the R&D work that's ongoing in hybrids and EVs, is how you manage that, what the thermal management systems look like, how the inputs are used, you know, how you're able to generate heat, you know, in those kinds of cold conditions without draining the range and efficiency too much."
Thermal management systems are how an EV or hybrid keeps its battery and cabin from getting too hot or too cold. In winter, they’re especially important because heating can otherwise drain the battery and reduce range.
Thermal management systems are the hardware and control strategies that keep a hybrid or EV’s battery, motor, and cabin within safe operating temperatures. They use heating and cooling (often via heat pumps, coolant loops, and valves) to maintain efficiency and protect components, especially in cold weather.
used EV market vs new EV sales
"New EV sales slipped in April, but the used EV market is telling a very different story... We break down why new EV sales declined last month, even as used EV sales surged nearly 17% from a year ago."
The used EV market can move differently from new EV sales because pricing, incentives, and buyer expectations change over time. When used EVs become cheaper, demand can rise even if new EV sales are slowing.
aligning payments with their paycheck schedules
"and how dealerships can help customers [460.4s] by aligning payments with their paycheck schedules... [525.2s] Instead of one monthly payment, if you get paid weekly, then you should make your payment weekly, [530.5s] or if it's bi-weekly, you can make it bi-weekly."
This is a cash-flow strategy: instead of paying once per month, the payment timing is matched to when the customer actually gets paid. The goal is to reduce the “lump sum” feeling of a large monthly bill and make the loan feel easier to manage.
interest rates
"So if only interest rates were lower, [480.5s] that could really solve our problem... [487.2s] But you say maybe that's not the right way to look at that. Explain. ... [498.9s] that's really not going to do much to a monthly payment."
Interest rates are what lenders charge to borrow money. If rates drop a little, your monthly payment might drop a little too—but if the car is expensive, that small change may not make it truly affordable.
In car shopping, interest rates are the cost of borrowing money for an auto loan. Even small changes (like a quarter-point) can slightly change the monthly payment, but the speaker argues that when car prices are high, rate cuts alone don’t meaningfully improve affordability.
monthly payment
"that's really not going to do much to a monthly payment. It's not going to do anything really [501.6s] for the affordability. Average car payment, I think, is around $745."
Your monthly payment is the amount you pay each month to pay off the car loan. The point here is that affordability depends on whether that monthly amount fits your budget.
A monthly payment is the fixed amount a borrower pays each month for an auto loan. The segment focuses on how affordability depends on the payment amount relative to a buyer’s real cash flow, not just the interest rate.
84-month auto loans and dealer revenue shift
"So looking at an 800-dollar-a-month car payment, it's pretty daunting for most consumers... What does that do to that trade-in cycle?... Well, they're going to have to focus on service because they're going to sell fewer cars"
They’re talking about how longer car loans can make people keep cars longer. That changes how dealers make money, pushing more focus toward service and parts.
This segment connects longer loan terms (like 84 months) to how often consumers trade cars in. It then explains why dealers may lean more on service and parts revenue when trade-in-driven sales slow.
84-month loans
"Right. So there are 84-month loans out there becoming more and more popular. People strapping for a monthly payment, really, is what they're only focused on."
An 84-month car loan means you pay for the car over 7 years. It can make the monthly payment smaller, but you typically pay more overall because of interest.
An 84-month loan is an auto loan stretched out to 7 years. Longer terms lower the monthly payment, but they usually increase total interest paid and can make it harder for owners to build equity quickly.
trade-in cycle
"What does that do to that trade-in cycle? Well, so far we haven't really seen it stretch out much farther than it has historically. I don't believe that can last."
The trade-in cycle is the pattern of how often consumers replace their vehicles and trade the old one in. If loans stretch longer, owners may delay trading, which can reduce dealer volume and shift revenue away from the traditional trade-in-driven business.
negative equity
"Well, so far we haven't really seen it stretch out much farther than it has historically. I don't believe that can last. I think negative equity now is averaging somewhere around 6,500, the last thing I read from Cox."
Negative equity means your car is worth less than what you still owe on it. If you trade it in, the difference usually has to be added to your next loan.
Negative equity is when you owe more on your car loan than the car is worth. In trade-ins, that shortfall often gets rolled into the next loan, which can keep monthly payments high and extend the cycle of debt.
F&I office
"Well, they're going to have to focus on service because they're going to sell fewer cars, and the fewer cars they sell amounts, that's less revenue coming into the F&I office, they're going to have to make it up somewhere"
The F&I office is the part of the dealership that sets up your financing and sells extra coverage or insurance options. If the dealership sells fewer cars, that department usually makes less money.
The F&I office (finance and insurance) is the dealership department that handles financing paperwork and sells add-ons like warranties and insurance products. If fewer cars are sold, the dealership typically has less F&I revenue to offset other losses.
service visits
"and that's why I see the manufacturers pushing so hard on the dealers to get them back for a minimum of two or four service visits to get some of the dealer money back."
Service visits are times you bring your car in for maintenance or repairs. Dealers want you to come back a certain number of times because that’s where a lot of their ongoing income comes from.
Service visits are scheduled maintenance or repair appointments that bring the vehicle back to the dealer. Dealerships often try to secure a minimum number of visits because service and parts can become a key revenue stream when new-car sales slow.
biweekly
"if someone's paid biweekly and you say to them, hey, you know, can you afford $400 out of each paycheck to pay for this vehicle, as opposed to can you afford $800 out of the last check"
Biweekly means every two weeks. The idea here is to make the payment feel easier by matching it to the paycheck schedule.
“Biweekly” means paying every two weeks instead of once per month. In auto financing discussions, it’s often used to reframe affordability by aligning payments with how people get paid.
accelerate the equity
"paying it, you know, weekly or biweekly, you're going to shorten the term of the loan, you know, accelerate the equity in the vehicle and that will also help the dealers with that, you know, stretched out trade cycle."
This means paying the loan down faster so you own more of the car sooner. That can help you get to a point where the car is worth more than what you still owe.
“Accelerate the equity” means paying down the loan principal faster so the car’s ownership value (equity) builds sooner. Faster equity build can reduce how long the vehicle is “underwater” (owing more than it’s worth), though the transcript doesn’t quantify it.
trade cycle
"accelerate the equity in the vehicle and that will also help the dealers with that, you know, stretched out trade cycle."
Trade cycle is how long people keep their car before switching to another. If it’s easier to build ownership value, some people may trade in sooner.
“Trade cycle” is how long customers typically keep a vehicle before trading it in for a newer one. If equity builds faster, it can make customers more willing/able to trade sooner, which affects dealer inventory turnover.
sticker prices
"and for dealers concerned about affordability, and again, like you said, you can't do much about sticker prices, sticker prices, a sticker price, and you might hear OEM might give you some incentives."
Sticker price is the advertised price of the car. The point is that dealers can’t always change that number, but incentives might lower the effective cost.
“Sticker price” is the manufacturer’s listed retail price on the vehicle. The discussion contrasts fixed sticker pricing with the possibility of OEM incentives to improve affordability.
OEM
"and you might hear OEM might give you some incentives. Do you have advice or how they can kind of, is it just as simple as customer service"
OEM means the company that originally makes the car. Sometimes that company offers incentives that can make the deal cheaper.
OEM stands for “original equipment manufacturer”—the company that builds the vehicle (or its major components). In pricing discussions, OEM incentives are manufacturer-funded offers that can reduce the buyer’s effective cost.
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